we're live as you can see from wichita state university, wichita, kansas. 2015. we're starting the iowa caucuses. we'll be deciding the next president of the united states. still with us we have msnbc contributor mike barnicle. the host stan stein who surprised us. former rnc chairman michael steele. historian jon meacham and willie geist with us from new york and joining us from managing editor of bloomberg mark halperin. what a big group. new polls showing ben carson surging against donald trump at 29%. carson leads trump by six points. trump's 23% is more than double the third place finisher marco rubio. ted cruz is in fourth and jeb bush's support is unchanged at 8%. none of the other ten candidates is above the low single digits. they're all tied at 3%. but when asked to as what the best chance in the general election, donald trump is still the leader. 32% to carson's 25%. this as the new weekly tracking poll from the morning consult shows trump leading carson by ten points. >> that's a massive lead in this poll, a lot different than the nbc poll. but,