i think this is going to happen, william davison, what strings do the international powers have left now to play on, on sort of the different parties. and when you look at the, the role of the, a you specifically, how much political legitimacy does it have right now when it comes to ethiopia? i mean, unfortunately, i think, you know, this is complex. and the continuation of it is an indication of the lack of leverage that the international community has. there is no reason to think this is going to change simply because of the decision of the un human rights council. i think, you know, the approach that the federal government has taken from the outset of this war is to describe it as a domestic lower and postman operation, therefore, trying to insulate itself from any outside interference that has continued throughout the war. in recent months. we've seen a massive increase in campaigning about alleged external meddling with the so called no more campaign. this is all designed to prevent the sort of scrutiny. and so to leverage that outside part is a trying to trying to bring and i t

let's talk now to william davison. he's a senior ethiopia analyst international crisis group. he joins us on skype from nairobi in neighboring kenya. william, welcome back to al jazeera. what are your sources on the ground? they're telling you as to what the latest information is. putting a pitcher from the battle tails throughout this war. i think what we know is that the 2 great forces attempts 1st to try and control it here is main cargo to trade court or that your booty that was not successful. then they sort of launched a southward offensive to try and capture try move toward that is about the capital over the past few weeks without hasn't been successful. ida, that's been followed by a very significant retreat from the 2 great forces back know now giving up some of their key positions and i'm horror. and i think that's in the face of an intensified drone campaign. and also there's pretty successful popular mobilization of new recruits the national army and so forth from region that have really for the pressure on the 2 great forces government. so she's a retake in these 2

william davison is a senior, ethiopia analyst for the international crisis group. he says, despite how the rebels of characterizing the withdrawals, it's clear that on the back foot of the moment the key thing to look for now, i think is what is the ability of the tick forces to maintain positions in the region? i think they would be a very difficult position if they were forced to withdraw back to take right entirely. if the 2 great 4th is able to maintain position, then har region where they beat on this offensive since july. and we will have to see if in the future they able to regain some offensive capacity. they say this is tactical, they say they need some time to reorganize, re strategize and recover the other very significant thing here is the intensified drone of the federal government and drones provided by china by 30, by iran, facilitated by the united arab emirates. this is really hits the to grow and supply line and meant that they had to give up on those offensive ambition. and saddam thousands of people have returned to the streets, maintaining prot

well, william davison is the senior. okay, okay. and last at international crisis. great. he says there may be no near and inside to the contract. and if you're a plan, there is an risk of breaking out that of course, to what extent that the social fabric is is damaged. already is a question of debate. of course, if the conflict continues that will appraise play further pressure on the government. worse and existing divisions within society. and i think the big concern for march in griffin is for many, many europeans and, and all of us paying attention is that at the moment i'm the reason i real end in sight is conflict. what one thing we should note is that it was sort of very serious, an insurgency counter insurgency. situation that has been growing and are mere region and the country's largest. but indeed, and there has been a civil war ongoing between the federal government and take great government for over a year. now, just in the last few days, you've seen the significant what looks like a potentially significant shift in the complex dynamics and possible. it's a gr

starvation a diplomatic end to the conflict couldn't come soon enough. priyanka gupta, al jazeera william davison is a senior, ethiopia analyst at international crisis group. he says this could be an opportunity for negotiations. evidently, the gray forces suffered major setbacks on the battlefield and they've given up on their efforts to impose a transitional government given up on their efforts to try and control the main trade corridor with your booty. and that's because of this increased drone capacity for the federal government, which damage the supply line. it's also the popular mobilization on the federal and i'm horace side. that's what's next to this withdrawal and the rethink to take right leadership and it's part of doing so. they are now explicitly calling presentation of facilities that does also involve a significant shift in negotiating position and no longer saying the territory in west and take, right. that was taken over by him har region needs to be returned to take right before talks and say that they say that can be part of a piece process. so it does look like an opportunity