william dudley signals another rate hike this year is very much on the cards.german economy spends its surplus. from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak. i am jonathan ferro alongside david westin and alix steel. the dollar is stronger and treasuries are lower. futures are firmer by about a fifth of 1%. treasury yields higher by four basis points at 2.26 on the 10 year. pound now closing at a 2009 hi. the calls for parity keep getting stronger and stronger. dollar index getting a nice move. retail sales in half an hour, could see some strain in the currency. david: u.s. retail sales numbers less than 30 minutes from right now. missile defense talks get underway in washington and we get to see the minutes from the fomc meeting, last month. walmart reports second-quarter results. president trump off his working vacation to visit the white house and his residence here in new york and managed to lose more members of his ceo council when the merck's ceo said he needed to withdraw as a matter of conscious. mr. fraser was followed by the ceos of in

it sounds like it could be the fed chair or stanley fischer or william dudley.epend on how the economy evolves -- it will depend on how the economy evolves. the u.s. economy seems to move along at about 2%, the matter what happens -- no matter what happens. we will have to see what happens with inflation. they were expecting inflation to move up more than it is. if they continue to start to go down, that will delay the next hike. vonnie: is the fellow's curve broken -- phillips curve broken? this is the big debate at the jackson hole meeting a couple years ago. is it broken or are we going to go back to our normal relationship? unfortunately, as with many things when academics are presenting papers, we did not get a definitive answer. you can see that in the notes in the minutes. -- and the minutes. one of the reasons we have not seen inflation move-up is employment has been higher than typical. now we have that spread between the traditional measure and the broad measures. people that want to be part-time, full-time. people that have not looked recently but do

. >>> william dudley says he favors another rate rise this year in an interview dudley said that if theconomy eslov volves as forecast, the fed should hike rates again this year. the new york fed president also praised the trump administration for being "hands-off with the u.s. central bank and for not politicizing monetary policy." >>> let's stick with the u.s want to show you what futures are doing this morning lots of green on the chart the dow jones seen higher to the tune of 40 points. the s&p could add on 3 points. the nasdaq adding on 16 points this after stocks closed sharply higher yesterday this is after we see the absence of further escalation between north korea and the u.s. it was the best day of the summer so far with the dow adding 135 points >>> european markets, many markets are closed today that's why volumes are some what lower. the italian, austrian, polish and greek markets are closed for holiday. the xetra dax is seeing gains to 0.25%. the ftse 100 up by 0.25% the banks once again leading the charge when it comes to the sectors. >>> in the fx markets, the dollar is

meanwhile, william dudley offered a positive outlook for the u.s. economy. the jobs market and inflation. yesterday in a speech he predicted an increase in consumer prices over the medium term towards the central bank's objective of 2% julyt us..s. cpi data for at 1:30 u.k. time. goodman joins us live from singapore. let's talk first about gold. ifseems that -- obviously, somebody is a big investors says that to the market, he is talking from his own book, but historically come it has been a safe haven. is it still as much of a haven as it was? >> sure, gold is a safe haven, and in high demand. ago, regarding north korea, people were saying, it is not that big of a deal. north korea is a problem from time to time, but now the rhetoric has really changed, just as president trump's frederick has changed. we have australia saying it will support the u.s. if needed. we have ray dalio recommending gold. this flight to safety has heated up. you mentioned bunds, saying people are rushing to bunds, even at a yield of 0.4%. that is not an attractive yield, but becaus

william dudley sees higher inflation ahead, but it's going to take time.s cymer price data. next stop, the german election. angela merkel returned to the campaign trail as she bids for a fourth term. snap, crackle, crash. the social media company plunges 18% in after-hours trading as earnings disappoint. it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." it is our flagship morning show. we have had a little bit of cpi from germany, rising by 0.4%. year on year, up 1.7%. in the markets today you see a rational correction, a rational realization of a temperance in risk. that is what my last guest, james bevan, said. london is down by 0.5%. this momentum is building up in terms of the consideration of risk. rob carnell at ing said this is developing into this generation's cuban missile crisis. trump's morning the north korean regime not to follow through with the missile test on guam. retaliation like they never thought possible. you are watching equities in europe expending their losses for this week after the u.s. saw hefty losses. let's look at the risk radar. then we wi

manus: we are focusing on william dudley from the new york fed, signaling another rate hike this yearoking increasingly likely. you -- he will outline his plans next month. he also expects an increase in inflation as labor markets tighten further. anna: gdp data from europe's biggest economy is due in 430 minutes. let's focus on the european outlook. still with us, nicholas gartside from j.p. morgan asset management. nick, we are looking at the growth story around europe and how strong it is. this ties into the german politics because angela merkel is looking for another term. what are your expectations around german growth, and what that tells us about the european recovery story? >> if you look, it is on fire, isn't it? the momentum is very strong. when you look at that , it has a fair bit of attraction. let's talk about that. manus: they are at -40 basis points. my question is simple. is that emergency setting, and what does a reset look like for you? >> a reset is when you get that -40 back to zero. there is a cost of running a negative interest rate in terms of capital, in terms

the first quote is written by someone who admitted has an ax to grind, william dudley gail, served as a staff officer and was a part of lee nigh tis polk and polk's fighting with bragg. after the war gail married polk's daughter. bragg was cruel yet without courage he wrote, he was obsta nint yet without firmness, he was crafty yet without strategy. he was suspicious, he was envie yous, he was jealous, he was vain. he was a dung hill in disaster and yet in command of a better army that they had to concur mcarthur. the other quote by john c. spens who witnessed the battle of stones river kept a keen eye on events and a diary. he said bragg was underrated. he mused that bragg does not at all times get the credit he is entitled to. he is sometimes charged by some for the want of tact in the management of his affairs. this may be by those who know the least of what his designs are, but bragg has one trait spense said he can make a hard fight and if pushed close he can get out of the way. his men respect him but they're not dispersed to worship him. that's my own view, it's closer to spenc

the new york fed head william dudley signals another rate hike this year is on the cards and the germanangela merkel bids as a fourth term as chancellor. good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak." let's get you set up for the market action this tuesday morning and went through the assets for you. futures are positive after the biggest weekly drop since march followed by the biggest one-day pop since april. the s&p 500 showing resilience. euro-dollar softer at 117 -- 1.1749. the weaker story for treasuries continues. too hot -- 2.25 is your yield on the 10 year. my currency pair of the day, euro-pound.

talking about the economy, we heard from william dudley yesterday and he had a positive prognosis forwhat more and it is going to take time for inflation to rise above 2%. anticipate ay: we moderate growth trend with further strength in the labor market. we think it will push inflation over medium-term, back to our objective of 2%. david: we will be breaking july cpi numbers in less than 30 minutes. is carlpreview the data riccadonna and darrell cronk of wells fargo. give us the prognosis, what do you expect us to learn in 26 minutes. cool streakk the will continue and core inflation .1.ht be up we are not seeing a lot of waving off of inflation weakness. more importantly, if we get a top trend today, we need to stop chopping this up to a couple of inducing credit and transitory factors like cell phone contract and drug prices, even if we stripped those out of the core cpi, it is decelerating aggressively. core cpi has decelerated by 60 basis points since the start of the year. we would still have decelerated by for the if we strip out those factors, so it is a more pervasive problem.

the ultimate crutch, you listen to the comments for the new york fed chief, william dudley, it looks't matter much as far as the next move is concerned. michael: i agree with that statement. it's really interesting and it will make his fed statements pivotal. the june meeting, i thought the statement was fairly hawkish. what changed the market's perception was the inflation data, the humphrey hawkins testimony in july. at that point when he is close to a neutral policy stance, everyone's expectation is that the move at the end of the year dropped. saying that financial conditions are a reason we need to continue tightening, the market perception shifted, the fed move by the end of the year had dropped from probably 50% post the fomc meeting to about 30, 30 5%, back up to 45% post build dudley.- bill these could shift back to that expectation of a september hike again. aren't they right at financial conditions have loosened, rather than tightened? there are concerns on the financial stability issues with bubbles and asset values. should they be as concerned? i think the reason why the

eastern time. 2:00 we'll look at the monthly federal budget statement new york fed president william dudley will be here as well. we've got kohl's, macy's, blue apron closing before the bell. after the bell we'll hear from nordstrom and snap >>> let's talk markets for now julian emanuel is from ubs of course our guest host this morning is guy adami cnbc trader. let me start out with you, julian you're convinced that in the short-term we could be looking at choppy sailing. >> yeah. if you look at it bayically over the long-term what matters to markets are earnings and the economy. both of which are doing pretty well it's taken us to where we're at around 19 times forward earnings which is reasonably high evaluations. but in the short-term, the last 48 hours have reminded us that publics can matter >> not in a meaningful way >> when you look forward, it's likely that the debate as your reporter stated earlier is going to intensify coming into a time of year, september is traditionally going back to world war ii the only month of the year where you have negative returns. so we do think there i

the four characters, kay lake, and william h parker and even the evil irish cop, dudley smith.people and if i can't control them i destroy them"? he is on a slow, tortuous path to redemption. wow. he is on a slow, tortuous path to self—sacrifice, salvation and redemption. even as we speak in my brain. in your brain. maybe the conversation we're having or the explanation you give for ultimately the sympathy you have for the cops who even are very bent, very corrupt, maybe that's one reason why some people in the united states have come to see you as a defender of, for example, the lapd, even during the rodney king fallout when the videotape beating of a black citizens seemed to so many so egregious and you said, "you know what, give the lapd a break." if you see the entire three—minute sequence of events pertaining to rodney king, you will notjudge the lapd anywhere near as harshly. iam the i am the yearly mc of the jack webb awards. even with the human rights abuses within the lapd, i wonder whether you are blind because you are too close to them. i am not blind to the idiocy o