hobbs, head of investment strategies at barclays is still with us. williamsed, let's start with his comments on the yield curve. he did say he is not worried about inverting. he referenced -- they are going to do with their goals need them to do. if that means short-term rates go higher than long-term, that's going to be the case. he also represent are hearing by buying long-term debt. may be the signals are not the same as that used to be. what are your thoughts? >> it is that latter point. in the yield curve has been a reliable indicator. pretty much every recession since the postwar period. has been one false alarm, they called it a recession and it was a credit crunch. ,he point about the yield curve the intuition is the market starts to predict sharp interest rate cuts. because the term premium is not existing now, a flattening or inversion of the yield curve is not saying the same thing as it has in previous cycles. we have got to interpret it differently this time. they are looking for a sharp and sustained inversion rather than something more moderate