what if he wins iowa, then he wins new hampshire, goes into south carolina and florida.sn't win iowa, as you said. >> it could be a different story, we noah with a influences new hampshire. stay tuned, i'm excited. you have the sweater vest on, i'm excited about that. jonathan capeheart the man. thank you. >> thanks. >> jonathan always checks out the fix blog. you can too, don't forget to follow me on twitter @thefix. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." andrea returns tomorrow, and then beginning friday she will anchor from des moines, iowa. now a look at what's next on "news nation". >> we're following developing news in the battle for with a wash right now, mitt romney about to hold an event in the hawkeye state where new polls put him in a tight race with roç paul. newt gingrich's super pac goes negative. we'll have a response from gingrich about the new attack on romney. >>> the pentagon vowing iran's threat to disrupt oil supply will not be tolerated. we'll get the latest on the escalating tensions between the u.s. and iran. news nation just

that's going to be pretty much the end of the republican nomination bus if romney wins in iowa, he'll win in new hampshire. he will have enough momentum to carry him through. >> is that the best diagnostic -- >> three weeks away! >> john, if ron paul wins, romney wins, if romney wins, romney wins. but if newt wins, romney has problems. >> that rasmussen poll is interesting because he was the first pollster in iowa to pick up the newt surge. he had newt popping up to 32 before anyone else so maybe he is picking up the -- newt's momentum. >> i'm going to put you in charge of watching the rasmussen poll! when we come back, the iraq war is officially over! [ female announcer ] more people are using wireless devices... in more ways than ever. and our networks are getting crowded. but if congress frees up more wireless spectrum... we can empower more people to innovate... putting momentum behind our economy. and we can reduce the deficit... with more than thirty billion dollars paid by america's wireless companies. it's simple -- more spectrum means more freedom. for everyone. >>> issue two

that's going to be pretty much the end of the republican nomination bus if romney wins in iowa, he'll win in new hampshire. he will have enough momentum to carry him through. >> is that the best diagnostic -- >> three weeks away! >> john, if ron paul wins, romney wins, if romney wins, romney wins. but if newt wins, romney has problems. >> that rasmussen poll is interesting because he was the first pollster in iowa to pick up the newt surge. he had newt popping up to 32 before anyone else so maybe he is picking up the -- newt's momentum. >> i'm going to put you in charge of watching the rasmussen poll! when we come back, the iraq war is officially over! >>> issue two, out of iraq! >> in the coming days, the last american soldiers will cross the border out of iraq, with honor and with their heads held high. after nearly nine years, our war in iraq ends this month. >> political process established, democratic process, and adoption of the principles of elections and the peaceful transfer of authority. >> president barack obama this week hosted iraq's prime minister, the meeting took place

that said, he could win iowa. h and i think that kills rick perry in some ways as well. ron paul winning would take away from their vote and their appeal. in some ways, ron paul winning iowa could guarantee romney wins the primary. >> now, bob, walk through quickly for me. ron paul wins in iowa, what does that do to willard and where do we calculate that from new hampshire inand to south caroli and the other two primaries? >> his second best wish is for ron paul to win iowa. he'd like to win it himself. but exactly for the reasons perry just stated, he'll be fine if paul wins. they'll go on to new hampshire, romney will win new hampshire going away. i think in south carolina, people will begin to come around, he'll probably be able to win south carolina, although there's going to be more resistance there than a lot of other places. and then i think you'd see florida move much as it did with mccain in 2008. he begins to look like the nominee and so people go to him even though they're not entirely happy with him. ro

if he wins iowa and new hampshire, he's on fire. goes to south carolina and got the incredibly important endorsement of niki haley. he probably won't win north carolina. if he does better than expected and goes to floor -- florida and if he wins there, it's hard to play catch up at that point. >> it's not a matter of delegates. you don't get half the delegates allocated with this time until april but i guess it would be a question of money. an awful lot of these candidates would simply run out of money to contest it. if, that's a big if, if he were to win. >> that's true, chris. a lot of the candidates after iowa, if they don't do well there, their money dries up, it's just as sad a reality as there is but they won't have anymore money. they'll limp into new hampshire and have to crawl to south carolina. if they try to stay beyond that. unless they have a bunch of millions banked away, they're not going to raise anymore. that's where romney does have the advantage and whether -- again, i don't think anyone expects him to win iowa. t

go([ bas two points down, if he makes a three-pointer he wins iowa. g up. newt gingrich is going. the only person who hasn't surged in iowa has been jon huntsman and he still has five days left. i think it'sç very unpredict zblbl huntsman this morning, they pick corn in iowa and candidates in new hampshire. ruth, romney has played this, five days out, it seems that he has played it just right, he's exerting his power both financially and organizationally on the state, there's still not sold on him. because rick santorum is rising, can he win the state with 25%, is that enough? >> sure. it's a win-win situation for romney f he wins iowa, fantastic. from his point of view. goes and gets new hampshire, but if he loses as long as it's not embarrassing at this point, it's not disastrous for him,ette zmrer if ron paul wins iowa, it's not the worst thing in the world -- >> it will be discounting. >> they don't have a path forward. >> reed, i want to -- newt gingrich a spokesman for newt gingrich, this is what he had to say about iowa. today's iowa poll shows

iowa. i think if ron paul wins there are four tickets out of iowa and this race goes on for a bit longer than we expect. >> brown: you just heard jeff brown talk about the incredible gridlock which has set in on capitol hill. does that resonate at all on the campaign trail especially for people who are currently sitting members of congress? >> i don't think as much in the republican race. it has long-term implications potentially for the president and i think it does explain some of the poll numbers inching up. it is wonderful talking points long term for the democrats. i'm not sure it has immediate impact in iowa for the republicans. >> ifill: what about this? >> of course in the end the president won't be running against the republican congress but the republican nominee who will probably not be a member of congress but it gives him a great talking point. it reminds me of what happened in 1995 when the newt gingrich- led house republicans had a budget showdown with president clinton. president clinton wasn't doing that well as that point going into his re-election year. they shut down the g

if he wins iowa, i think at that point he would have a very good chance not just to win new hampshire hampshire going away at that point even with this long drawn out process, i think it would be a matter of marching to the nomination. >> let's move to newt gingrich here. he may have peaked a little bit too early at least in the polls for him to be able to cash in in iowa. talking about cash, i want to show you the numbers that you and i have been following. in terms of spending he's been clearly outspent. as of friday perry with $4 million, paul with $1 million. gingrich with a quarter of a million. all that money being spent here for attack ads. what does he need to do to win in iowa? second or third place? >> i think he'd be thrilled a t this point with second place. he may get third or fourth. he's really on the downslide. that's the hold of some of those remaining candidates we may talk about who are hoping to slip into third place and give themselves a boost for if not new hampshire then south carolina, the third contest. >> he'd be happy if he hit third place. you were mentions

i find it hard to believe that if he wins iowa he can win new hampshire. >> it's not iowa., he will get to go to face the nation. he is not going anywhere. this is his last hurrah. i used to think that obama had a yee-hatrip. these peopler a vanity campaign. you know? this guy talks about he's an isolationist. you cannot be an isolationist in a 21st century global economy. we have military alliances and treaty obligations. we have trade agreements. we can't be isolationists. i say he's on his last huraw and goodbye. >> monica: you know what? that's the thing, ron paul is very good at explaining what led to the financial crisis. i think he's excellent on the fed. he talks about cutting spending and reining in government. i agree with him on all of that, but he has a lot of baggage. he is way out there on 9/11. all of these newsletters in the past years with his name on it that are anti-semitic and he rejects american super power. you cannot have a commander in chief in the 21st century that rejects american super power. >> he might win iowa. we should take that into serious

[everyone talking at once] >> win iowa? i think i agree, 60, 70%. i'd agree with that. out of 10 to take iowa. >> but in permanent? >> if he -- wins iowa and into some new victory in new hampshire, if he gets south carolina and florida, where is romney then? >> i know, i know. but he's got to carry iowa. >> i'll give it an 8. >> an 8? >> yes, i think gingrich will get stronger, not weaker. >> hi to vote up -- [audio not understandable] he is raising a lot of money which he didn't have before. he'll have a much better organization. he's the one with the momentum. he's got the energy. i give it 8 out of 10. >> the answer is 5. when we come back, channeling. two, channeling teddy. >> in 1910, teddy roosevelt came here and he laid out his vision for what he called a new nationalism. our country, he said, means nothing unless it means the triumph of a real democracy, of an economic system under which each man shall be guaranteed the opportunity to show that th >> president obama gave a major speech in the heartland this week. in kansas, same town where in 1910 teddy roosevelt

but he could win iowa. steve knows very well, because he and i spent a lot of decembers and januarys in iowa, iowa operates a little differently on the republican side than the democratic side. since 1980, in contested iowa caucuses, the democratic winner has gone on to the nomination 84% of the time. for republicans, that figure is only 60%. pat robertson, for heaven's sake, finished ahead of george h.w. bush in 1988. that didn't mean that republicans didn't come back in 1986 and contest the caucuses. they did. but i can tell you right now, there's a real chance, i think that iowa can take a flyer here, unless those gingrich bleeds all go to romney and romney pulls an upset. then romney has an ideal situation either way. either he wins iowa, he's on a roll, or he gets to run against ron paul, and i can't conceive that he wouldn't be the republican nominee under those circumstances. >> steve, is it a pipe dream that some semblance of a gop organization or establishment in iowa can get it together and say, h

>> is he not going to win iowa. he could have won iowa but he is not going to win it. >> shepard: that's it now. >> no. the bottom line is he still has the opportunity to be the conservative alternative to romney. >> shepard: what about rick perry. >> he is on the move and has resources. he is starting to sail a little bit. it's really those three that can play here plus paul. paul could win iowa very easily. >> shepard: ron paul as a third party candidate. >> that will guarantee obama getting reelected. >> shepard: is that to say ron paul won't do that? back up to 2000 will, nobody wanted him in the debates. nobody would put him on television. this time he is the most organized guy out there, isn't he? >> he has been running nonstop for six years. he came very close 150 votes of winning the straw poll. he will win the caucus or come in second. >> shepard: you think he he is probably going to win iowa. >> i think he could easily win iowa. >> shepard: you think he will. >> i think he will. >> shepard: ed rollins think

but you -- >> you have to win either iowa or new hampshire, don't you feel like? . everyone who has won south carolina has won the primary. every single one. if you looked at where we first put our biggest team, it's in south carolina. >> joining me is chief correspondent and host of the daily rundown, chuck todd. great interview with newt gingrich. but i want to get to ron paul and the guy the party is really worried about in iowa. you're at a ron paul event in atlantic, iowa. what do his supporters believe at this point? romney supporters believe their guy can be present. do ron paul supporters believe they're going to make a statement. do they believe they're going to nominate a candidate to win? >> these are statement folks. ifç you're looking for the devoted crowd, the dwoeded supporter, you're going to find that at a ron paul event. you're not going to find somebody that i interviewed today, for instance, that drove four hours to go see mitt romney you are going to find this young man who spent last night making 200 phone calls from his apartment in minneapo

>> i think he could win iowa.t the front-runner there now, if he doesn't win iowa, it's not because of the three marriages. >> when newt gingrich's campaign imploded, one of the differences with his campaign staff said we have to get out in front of this quote unquote baggage. and he said you're paying too much attention to that. and in a lot of ways he was right. and that's why he's going so well now. >>> moving on, so if you were a middle east leader with not so great reputation, what country would you pick if you wanted to get away from tv cameras and questions? the answer may surprise you. >>> you'll also want to stick around for our moment you missed. president obama is about to get upstaged by a very cute baby. >>> welcome back. here's lisa sylvester with the latest news you need to know right now. >> the newspaper and tv stations in jacksonville, florida report no survivors in today's crash of a medical helicopter. the jacksonville news says the three people aboard were on their way to pick up a donated hea

i'm not going to lie to you, it would be fun to watch ron paul win it in iowa this year. it would make pundits' heads explode everywhere, right? because what he would be winning is the republican caucuses in iowa, that result would also mean roughly nothing. to the rest of the presidential race. >>> today in congress, nothing happened to make it less likely that your taxes are going to go up at the end of the year. right now, you are benefiting from a temporary cut in the payroll taxes that get taken out of each one of your paychecks. president obama and the democrats say they want to extend that cut when it expires at the end of the year, maybe even make it bigger. republicans have been, meh, about that idea. republicans have now passed something out of the republican controlled house that would extend the payroll tax cut, but they made sure to combine it with a whole bunch of other poison pills president obama said explicitly he would veto. the house republican poison pill thing has zero chance of passing the senate. senate republicans moved today to block taking a vote

going forward. >> if mitt romney wins iowa, he will probably win new hampshire and go on to win this nomination. mitt romney way be trying to win iowa secretly without setting high expectations. reporter: on tuesday, romney, bachmann, perry and gingrich all began iowa bus tours while rick santorum toured iowa conservatives. the winner of the 2008 caucuses said weather could hold the details. one week after iowa the action shifts to new hampshire on january 10th. the boston globe poll has romney up by double digits followed by gingrich, paul and jon huntsman who may be fighting for his survival. >> there's john huntman, too. unless he shows well in new hampshire, he's finished, too. reporter: now for his part newt gingrich remained in front in many national polls, but recent missteps like missing his filing deadline in virginia have taken some of the steam out of the former speaker's frontrunner status. tom fitzgerald, fox 5 news. >>> we are counting down for everything you need to know for the presidential primary. >>> according to the latest gallup tracking poll 47% of americans app

the breaking news tonight is ron paul appears to have scored a bit of a coup in his effort to win iowa. shortly before dr. paul took the stage there, in des moines tonight, an iowa republican ç state senator who's named kent sorensen was introduced to the ron paul supporting crowd. up until tonight mr. sorensen had been serving as an iowa state co-chair for the michele bachmann campaign. the reason he was being introduced at a ron paul ro rally was to announce he's switching sides. >> tonight's been tough for me. i've been serving as michele bachmann's state chair over the last year. and while michele has fought tremendously for my conservative values, i believe we're at a turning point in this campaign. i believe we have an opportunity to elect a conservative, somebody who holds our values dear. i want to tell you guys i'm going to do everything the next few days to help in iowa and beyond and we're going to take ron paul all the way to the white house in 2012. >> the co-chair of michele bachmann's iowa campaign tonight jumping ship and saying he is supporting ron paul. shortly after

the breaking news tonight is ron paul appears to have scored a bit of a coup in his effort to win iowa. shortly before dr. paul took the stage there, in des moines tonight, an iowa republican state senator who's named kent sorensen was introduced to the ron paul supporting crowd. up until tonight mr. sorensen had been serving as an iowa state co-chair for the michele bachmann campaign. the reason he was being introduced at a ron paul roll was to announce he's switching sides. >> tonight's been tough for me. i've been serving as michele bachmann's state chair over the lastç year. and while michele has fought tremendously for my conservative values, i believe we're at a turning point in this campaign. i believe we have an opportunity

i'm not going to lie to you, it would be fun to watch ron paul win it in iowa this year. make pundits' heads explode everywhere, right? because what he would be winning is the republican caucuses in iowa, that result would also mean roughly nothing. to the rest of the presidential race. laces? really? slip-on's the way to go. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] now there's a mileage card that offers special perks on united, like a free checked bag, united club passes, and priority boarding. thanks. ♪ okay. what's your secret? ♪ [ male announcer ] the new united mileageplus explorer card. get it and you're in. >>> today in congress, nothing happened to make it less likely that your taxes are going to go up at the end of the year. right now, you are benefiting from a temporary cut in the payroll taxes that get taken out of each one of your paychecks. president obama and the democrats say they want t

>> we could have something where ron paul wins iowa and mitt romney wins in new hampshire and all ofble to hold on and build his campaign infrastructure, start running tv ads. he is from the south and could benefit but a lot depends on how iowa and new hampshire shake out. >> do you agree with that? >> yeah. look, newt gingrich of course he's going to say he needs to win in south carolina because it looks like his hopes are fading in iowa, so he wants to keep himself relevant to be able to stay in this race for the long haul, you know, maybe give donors something to think about, to back his candidacy so that he can go for the long haul with mitt romney because right now if he finishes, youç know, fourthr third or something like that in iowa, well, all of a sudden that's not where he was three weeks ago. he needs to give himself somewhere else to play. >> always great talking to you guys. thank you. >> thank you. >> all righty. thanks for watching. matt miller is in for dylan ratigan to take us forward. how is it going there, matt? >> hey, richard. got a fantastic hour ahead. we've g

i'm not going to lie to you, it would be fun to watch ron paul win it in iowa this year. it would make pundits' heads explode everywhere, right? because what he would be winning is the republican caucuses in iowa, that result would also mean roughly nothing. to the rest of the presidential race. have asked yours truly to teach you about treating frequent heartburn. 'cause i know a thing or two about eatin'. if you're one of those folks who gets heartburn and then treats day after day... well that's like checking on your burgers after they're burnt! [ male announcer ] treat your frequent heartburn by blocking the acid with prilosec otc. and don't get heartburn in the first place! [ male announcer ] one pill a day. 24 hours. zero heartburn. block the acid with prilosec otc, and don't get heartburn in the first place. available at walmart. at bank of america, we're lending and investing in communities across the country, from helping to revitalize a neighborhood in brooklyn to financing industries that are creating jobs in boston or providing funding for the expansion of a lo