there's no doubt that he can win iowa, that's a story unto itself. megyn. e had in the last several months. three improbable front runsers out of nowhere in iowa and first herman cain, remember him, 9 9 9 and then newt gingrich, a dead man walking, come to life and go up in the polls and collapse a couple of weeks after attack and rick santorum, the least likely person of all. lost his home state reelection by 9 points and now surging in iowa. the problem is, megyn, we have a process where we're talking the regular politics of how it works and in the environment of an election year that may rival 1968 in terms of a year that we never imagined, and i remind you that on january 1st, new years day, 1968. which is probably the worst political year of our lives. for those of us old enough to remember, historically. the united states is winning the war in vietnam. lyndon johnson was certain to be renominated and likely to be reelected. richard nixon was at 43% and i think that romney strikes me in this race with all the volatility, with all of this anger, with 69%

there's no doubt that he can win iowa, that's a story unto itself. megyn. e had in the last several months. three improbable front runsers out of nowhere in iowa and first herman cain, remember him, 9 9 9 and then newt gingrich, a dead man walking, come to life and go up in the polls and collapse a couple of weeks after attack and rick santorum, the least likely person of all. lost his home state reelection by 9 points and now surging in iowa. the problem is, megyn, we have a process where we're talking the regular politics of how it works and in the environment of an election year that may rival 1968 in terms of a year that we never imagined, and i remind you that on january 1st, new years day, 1968. which is probably the worst political year of our lives. for those of us old enough to remember, historically. the united states is winning the war in vietnam. lyndon johnson was certain to be renominated and likely to be reelected. richard nixon was at 43% and i think that romney strikes me in this race with all the volatility, with all of this anger, with 69%

the iowa caucuses by 8 votes. mitt romney wins the iowa caucuses by 8 votes over former senator rick santorum. took until 2:34 eastern time for that to happen. the interesting thing was that it's going to take 2 weeks for all of these precincts to officially certify this result. but 8 votes separates 1 and 2. >> and the interesting thing at the end was the turnout, 122 thousand. someone suggested that they may suggest an enthusiasm gap on the part of the republicans because it mirror who what we saw four s ago. but is that the case? would you expect more in the g.o.p. primary, as opposed to on game day in november? >> the party was projecting 140,000, so this is lower than projected. you know, look at the democratic primary in 2008, twice as many people showed up. it was over 200,000 people. so that's enthusiasm. i don't see this as enthusiasm, when i attended the events -- i am sure you saw the same thing. there weren't a lot of people. you didn't feel a lot of enthusiasm. i don't see it as being particularly great. >> do you agr

the iowa caucuses by 8 votes. mitt romney winshe iowa caucuses by 8 votes over former senator rick santorum. took until 2:34 eastern time for that to happen. the interesting thing was that it's going to take 2 weeks for all of these precincts to officially certify this result. but 8 votes separates 1 and 2. >> and the interesting thing at the end was the turnout, 122 thousand. someone suggested that they may suggest an enthusiasm gap on the part of the republicans because it mirror who what we saw four s ago. but is that the case? would you expect more in the g.o.p. primary, as opposed to on game day in november? >> the party was projecting 140,000, so this is lower than projected. you know, look at the democratic primary in 2008, twice as many people showed up. it was over 200,000 people. so that's enthusiasm. i don't see this as enthusiasm, when i attended the events -- i am sure you saw the same thing. there weren't a lot of people. you didn't feel a lot of enthusiasm. i don't see it as being particularly great. >> do you agree

rick santorum winning iowa, those certified results are in. hought mitt romney had won, we thought rick santorum had squeaked in there by eight votes coming in second. turns out, those certified results saying rick santorum won iowa. let's take that happening this hour in addition to us getting the news that rick perry will be announcing 11:00 a.m. eastern time, 1.5 hours from now, that he is out of the race. these two bits of information, ho how will it impact the debate tonight? roland? >> 2008 thein sein tore hillary clinton beat thein sein tore obama. he won 14 of the delegates, she won 13. at the end of the day this is about delegates. we can talk about santorum winning iowa by 34 votes, 8 votes, whatever the number is. it doesn't matter. it comes down to delegates. most of the iowa delegates wasn't a woorded on that night. it's not that big of a deal. that's old news because now it's about south carolina. that will not be an issue when it comes to the debate. of course santorum will talk about it because he'll say i won the voters there i

>> regarding iowa, whoever does win, they'll wind up with a lot of momentum and while iowa does have, know, is outside it's been described as an outside role in the u.s. election, when you look at who iowa has picked historically they haven't always gone on to win the election. however, it's all about south carolina because there's an interesting fact that no republican has ever become president without winning south carolina. and since 1980, no republican has won south carolina without first winning iowa or new hampshire. so in other words, you either have to win iowa tonight or new hampshire next week to wind up winning south carolina because if you win south carolina, that road leads to the white house. >> do you think that's the way it's gonna happen this year, though? do you think it will be -- >> if history is any indicator. >> that's my question this morning and tomorrow and moving forward. do you think this election cycle will resemble what we've seen in the past or will it be completely different? will it be completely different from what we've witnessed? >> newt gingrich has

>> regarding iowa, whoever does win, they'll wind up with a lot of momentum and while iowa does have, know, is outside it's been described as an outside role in the u.s. election, when you look at who iowa has picked historically they haven't always gone on to win the election. however, it's all about south carolina because there's an interesting fact that no republican has ever become president without winning south carolina. and since 1980, no republican has won south carolina without first winning iowa or new hampshire. so in other words, you either have to win iowa tonight or new hampshire next week to wind up winning south carolina because if you win south carolina, that road leads to the white house. >> do you think that's the way it's gonna happen this year, though? do you think it will be -- >> if history is any indicator. >> that's my question this morning and tomorrow and moving forward. do you think this election cycle will resemble what we've seen in the past or will it be completely different? will it be completely different from what we've witnessed? >> newt gingrich has

political consultant said two weeks ago on this newscast he believed ron paul would win iowa. listen. >> he has been running nonstop for six years and he came close, 150 votes of winning the straw poll and heel win the caucus and certainly come in second. >>shepard: you think heel win iowa? >>guest: he could. >>shepard: you thing heel? >>guest: i think he will. >>shepard: sounded weird at the time but not now. the polls are shifting sin the interview so does that prediction still stand? former member of the reagan administration, former campaign manager for the presidential hopeful michele bachmann, and mike huckabee back in the day and a fox news political analyst and always tells the truth. i like that part best. does he win, ed? >>guest: it is down do him and romney. he has the emotional, committed voter and romney has the intellectual who think he could be the strongest candidate against obama. santorum has momentum moving were but i don't think he has the organization of the first two so i would not be surprised if either did. obviously, paul's people are totally committed

if he would win in iowa, you could equate it to pat buchanon winning new hampshire in 1996. there is more to it than that. i have seen santorum on the stump. you may not like this but he is very much like president obama. the crowd likes him. he pays attention to what the crowd says. he does a great job of retail politics. when someone in a crowd asks rick santorum a question, he looks right at that person and answers the question and doesn't give the bullet point answers. he goes face to face with people and it is very effective. when people leave the room, they say, gosh, i've got to really think about this guy. the number of undecideds is very important here. the social conservatives being split three different ways. bachmann is going to fall, we don't know how far. we know rick perry doesn't have the smarts, at least i don't think he does. time and time again, he gavs. he has enough money to convince people that he has the chops to get the job done. the bottom line, santorum has worked it county by county, the old-fashioned way. he hasn't done it it with o'reilly on his

i think that rick santorum is going to win iowa. if that's an upset, so be it. i've seen the guy in action. and i listen to what he says. i know what iowa is about. and the preachers were working the pulpit hard on sunday for rick santorum. if they come out in full force for him, it's going to be that portion of the electorate versus the young people that might come out for ron paul. romney's playing it smart so far. he's acting like a winner, talking a lot about president obama, but he may not win iowa. i think it is going to be rick santorum. get your cell phones out. i want to know what you think. tonight's question. will rick santorum win the iowa caucus tomorrow? text "a" for yes, text "b" for no to 622639. our blog is there for you at ed.msnbc.com. for your comments. of course, we'll bring you the results later on in the program. >>> i'm joined tonight by rick green, president and editor of "the des moines register" and also howard dean, former dnc chairman and founder of democracy for america. gentlemen, i couldn't have two better people on with me tonight

and he will get a boost in fund raising if he wins the iowa caucuses. ll come in. you think about a lot of second tier candidates, that's what they hope to have happen. they win money and the money rolls in. that was john edwards' strategy in 2008. santorum is so poor that i'm not sure all of his financial woes would disappear -- >> it's fascinating. >> it's true. >> but the second thing is that, you know, what romney has benefitted from here is this fragmented conservative side of the field. he hopes, romney, to have the same thing play out in south carolina. rick santorum winning here is the best possible outcome for romney besides romney winning himself. he can -- gingrich and perry still feeling strong enough they can play in south carolina, santorum winning here and so therefore playing in south carolina and you could imagine the same kind of scenario replicating itself there for romney where he might be able to win south carolina with 25%, 26%, 28% of the votes. he wants all of the conservatives propped up so no one rallies around the single conser

the republican race to win iowa remains at a toss-up on the eve of the state's caucuses. e presidential hopefuls will be campaigning hard today trying to win over iowa's many uncommitted voters. the latest poll numbers from the des moines register show mitt romney as the front-runner with ron paul right behind him. however, rick santorum is climbing quickly and remains within striking distance in third place. >> i want to take a closer look and just see what he is really truly about because i'm not really satisfied with the other candidates right now. >> looking past iowa, santorum is campaigning hard in both new hampshire and south carolina but polling poorly in both states. however, that could change if he pulls off the upset in iowa. >>> newt gingrich is battling the flu as he makes his final push in iowa, but he blames attack ads put out by romney supporters for causing his political ailments in the hawkeye state and says he should have responded more aggressively. 45% of all tv ads in iowa were attack ads against gingrich. gingrich says he feels romney-boated, referri

. >> yesterday you were confident enough to tell your audience that you were going to win iowa. what do you see out there that you like? >> i don't think i quite said that but -- >> you said, i'm going to win this thing no other way. >> yeah, that's what i heard. yeah, sure. >> no, no, if all goes well i hope i become the nominee. >> joe and mika here with us today. closing in on romney, the man riding the momentum right now, rick santorum. >> mitt romney predicts he's going to win tonight. >> good for him. >> you feel you're going to win tonight? >> i feel very good about how things are going. >> and what about michele bachmann, she says no matter what's happening, she's not dropping out. >> we think a lot of people will be surprised. we think we'll see a miracle on tuesday night. and i believe in the one who sends miracles. so i think we'll see a miracle. >> with just hours to go, what will drive voters to caucus tonight. >> i would say primarily the economy and getting people back to work, seeing people get back to work. and other than that, probably the character of the candi

with that bit of information, what does your gut you, with the candidate who wins iowa win the nominationbook.com/"news nation" to cast your vote and look at what they are saying about yesterday's gut check. do you believe the poll showing 41% of likely caucus goers in iowa were still undecided two days before the caucuses? 77% said yes. 23% said no. that does it for this edition of "news nation." keep it on msnbc for a live coverage of the iowa caucus. coverage starts at 6:00 and be sure to watch "morning joe" for the presidential candidate, mitt romney will join them live. martin bashir is up next. ♪ like so many great pioneers before me, guided only by a dream. i'm embarking on a journey of epic proportion. i will travel, from sea to shining sea, through amber waves of grain, and i won't stop until i've helped every driver in america save hundreds on car insurance. well i'm out of the parking lot. that's a good start. geico, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent, or more on car insurance. [ merv ] mr. clean magic eraser extra power was three times faster on permanent marker. i

what should we take away from iowa, whoever wins? >> well i think you have... iowa is first. that's why it's important. i think you watch in terms of how the race unfolds, mitt romney, this is a lot like the 1980s caucus, bob. you'll remember that. george herbert walker bush an unknown ambassador a moderate candidate in the race, won that caucus because the conservative vote was all chopped up. one of the things to watch coming out of iowa is can the conservatives coalesce around one candidate? rick perry in south carolina, rick santorum? who will that be? going forward to be the alternative to romney? that's what i would look for coming out of iowa. >> schieffer: in 1980, ronald reagan wins the fom nation. then you shift to 1988. of all people pat robertson finishes ahead of george bush in iowa that year. and then george bush goes on to win. i agree with you. it's important because it's first. we find out, we see them all lay it out. thanks to all of you. we'll see you all out there. i'll be out there this afternoon. back in a moment with some final thoughts. ♪ [ male announ

i don't think he would do that to his son. >> so he wins iowa tonight and the republican response is who voted for ron paul for the majority winner tonight in iowa go vote for obama? >> i think that there is a view, conventional wisdom view that a national security issues that the republican party is monolithic. i think ron paul points out after a decade of twar is not. there is a statistically significant percentage of people participating in these early contests that are part of the republican base that are tired of, quote-unquote, the military adventurism abroad. i think that debate, that fissure has been opened up in the party and i think it is something that will play out over time. >> jon huntsman says he wants afghanistan. >> i think that gives an opening in these debates this weekend that chris and david were talking about for gingrich. if i'm gingrich, on the stage like i was in '04, i walk in that debate and talk about the extreme positions of ron paul both on the right and the left because he is as extreme on the right with some of the stuff that's come out on him as the le

iowa isn't necessarily make or break. the question now is what's next for him because whether he wins or loses here tomorrow in iowa, this state is just the start of a very long process. and john roberts is on that. live in marion, iowa. about 100 miles east of us here. john, what does mitt romney need to do? what's heir assessment of what they need to do in the next 24 hours before iowans been to caucus? >> if they want to win this caucus or do very well here, shep, they have to win over a number of those undecided voters because you see while mitt romney can really connect with the fiscal conservatives he is not really good dealing with social conservatives. have to convince as many people sitting on the fence thinking about going to newt gingrich or rick perry to come over to their side. i ran into a bunch of and talked to a lot of undecided voters today asking what they looking for. a lot talked about jobs in the economy. some said they like the focus he has on the family and the sons he has and drags them all around iowa. one fellow actually voted for president obama in 2008. he he was at a romney rally and said he

can he win, iowa. and what do you get when you win iowa? actual state because that would be cool. meanwhile the other candidates making a final push unleashing a slew of campaign ads like this ad from newt gingrich. ♪ i'm newt gingrich and i approve this message. >> it spoke to me. then there is this campaign ad from ron paul. i'm ron paul and i approve this message. >> i think the university st. louis supposed to be israel but i'm not -- is supposed to be israel but i'm not sure. and this ad from rick perry. i'm rick perry and i really approve this message. >> they are just getting meaner and meaner. p.a.b., what do you make of the race so far? is it just seem weird to me or is it weird to you? >> no, out of the many races that i have covered in my very, very short time as a journalist, you know, this is bizarre. it really is. it is very unpredictable. and there have been i would say three highlights for me. the first being when rick perry couldn't remember the third government agency that he would have liked to eliminate. >> i see where t

wins today. dnc chair wowoman debbie wasser schultz making a bold prodiction. >> i'm 100% confident the people of iowa the american people will win the day on november 6th of this year when president obama is re-elected because of his policies, because of the fact that he has brought think country out of the second economic disaster since we faced since the great depression. >> chairman of the rnc, good morning. >> good morning. i don't know what else she's supposed to say, but, yeah, bold prediction i guess. >> i'm guessing you "the des moines regter." the case for the president. you know, you've got to admit that what seemed like a huge opening for the republicans does seem to have narrowed a little bit. look at the polls and in head-to-head matchups the president does very well and on like ability he still does very, very well. >> i guess i disagree with the premise, chris. but first of all if you look at voter registration in iowa, we're winning that battle 2-1. all of the gains made by the democratic party in 2008 they've been totally reversed. if you look at head-to-head matchups, obviously thos

they would like to see romney win in wh win in iowa. at's it not necessarily what i want -- >> i usually -- that's not the scenario the president wins. >> he wants to see santorum surge through south carolina? >> yeah. we were very pro to the new surge. maybe david axelrod who was firm and -- any one of them i would have taken. bachmann was thrilling, too, for a while. >> all right. james carville, thank you very much. >> thank you. loved the walk. great walk. >> the great wall, that's what it should be. >> hey, we got a name. >> i think you just did it. >>> well, in if tonight's "outer circle" iran says it developed its first nuclear fuel rod, nuclear weapons. are they far behind? the latest dwopts of the case of maine's 20-month-old missing child. baby ayla missing since mid-december. why is her father speaking out only today for the first time? lost your appetite for romance? and your mood is on its way down. you might not just be getting older. you might have a treatable condition called low testosterone or low t. millions of men, fo

it's why mike huckabee wins iowa in 2008 and you know, mccain wins new hampshire. t, it's -- new hampshire has got its own rhythm and pays attention not that much to what happens in iowa. except this year. that is if you take a look at it, there is some evidence in the two polls that have been conducted since tuesday primary, one is a one-night poll and one is a two-night poll that there is movement for santorum in the state of new hampshire. at the expense of jon huntsman who spent the entire year trying to pull a santorum in new hampshire. that is to say camping out in that state. and at the expense of speaker newt gingrich. both of whom numbers look like they are dropping. those people are moving in the camp of santorum. >> sean: looking at rasmussen, one of the polls you are referring to. romney is 29. 21% for santorum. a huge jump for him. a big bounce out of iowa. newt at 16. where am i wrong in my analysis. romney and santorum will be on the receiving end of negative ads, negative attacks, they have two debates over the weekend they've got to perform well in.

gets 42%. >> let's state how much republican voters are coming around to mitt romney even if he wins iowa. the other question is, maybe he wins tonight in this muddled seven-way race but what percentage of the vote does he get? mitt romney has not beb able to move above 30%, outside new hampshire in a single national poll or a single key early state poll this year. meanwhile, a guy like rick perry zoomed to 42% in september. newt gingrich got up to 40%. i think this is the most important statistic to keep in mind about the iowa election night, 62% of voters in 2008 identified themselves as evangelical christians and we're talking about a mormon conservative from massachusetts here. >> michael steele, i think -- no, go ahead. >> i was going to answer steve's point. i don't think he breaks 30% tonight, which is a problem. i think he's somewhere between 25% and 27%, you know, if he wins. that's with a good, hefty turnout. if the turnout's a little lower, that number's going to be smaller. i think steve has hit on a very good point. you were asking me my bet for tonight. beyond iowa it's a ve

i'm all for it and i believe he will take iowa and if he can win iowa he can win other caucuses as we'll have ron paul does paul the sov and he does when the caucus the iowa caucus how that set the tone for the rest of the election. it will say to america those who support ron paul that he is in fact a contender that he does in fact have something to say because what the media will try and do by and large and. preach this time and time again they would like to destroy the whole because when they were talking about ron paul having an opportunity to win in iowa then they dismissed it as well they're really won't care what will really count is what takes place in new hampshire so it won't matter to newt gingrich this won't matter but it does matter it sends a message that america is sick and tired of go alone get along politicians and they are the ones who need to wake up because next we will start sending people to washington who will work with ron paul to get rid of all of the gridlock that goes on in washington between republicans and democrats now paul suppor