in the state of wisconsin, it is too all in wisconsin. but president obama is in in texas, nbc news can project that mitt romney iss the winner 29 electoral votes. jected winner is mitt romney. in kansas the projected winner iscoucted winner is president obama. in :unebraskas projec nebraska but other state besides maine that elecdistrict. what this means is that four ofawarded to mitt romney. we're not mak charóyacterization of the second congressional district in nebraska. so only four of the spoken for here in awarding this stromney. he's the projected win moving on to north dakota. in projected winner is mitakota the projected winner is mitt romn rizonat romney is thely to callearlier poll closings where we have ca projections, pennsylvania is too early to but nbc news is describing great state ofcall. in the great stateohio it istoo close to call. in neighboringiniahe ste of new hampshire, which neighborst is too close to call. in the new jersey unusual circumstances because of the impact of hurri the disruption ofáÑ it's too early

we're joined for an update on wisconsin voting.d, you're watching "the ed show" live from democracy plaza. you're also looking at all of the skating that takes place here. i was going to skat tonight, but i've got sore ankles, i think i'll pass. we're coming right back. [ male announcer ] febreze. eliminates odors and leaves carpets fresh. ♪ and leaves carpets fresh. if we want to improve our schools... ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build a strong foundation. let's invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. anyone have occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas, bloating? yeah. one phillips' colon health probiotic cap each day helps defend against these digestive issues with three strains of good bacteria. approved! [ phillips' lady ] live the regular life. phillips'. >>> welcome back to "the ed show." and in the big finish tonig

wisconsin. iowa is maintaining that pattern that we've seen a lot this fall. it hasn't moved for him. iowa is a huge early voting state and i think if the story of this election ends up being the re-election if it does of president obama, it's going to be all about the early voting and the wider his lead, the wider the state -- the more early voting. >> let me throw up a stat from our iowa poll for folks. among those who say they have voted or will vote early, and mitt romney leads 55/35. so, you know, that is -- that points to the advantage there. i want to move to both wisconsin and new hampshire. i want to put up some job approval numbers for the president. because what's interesting in new hampshire and iowa in particular, the president's job approval was below his ballot cast. >> yeah. and that's what we're seeing here. look, when you're at 49 or 50, that's an okay number. but that doesn't put a lock on this by any stretch of the imagination. so whether it's his approval rating or what he's

>> i feel very confident that he will win wisconsin.ans we're going to get up and do what we need to do. that's why people went out to early vote. we're going to take other people to the polls and get it done. >> state senator lena taylor and also ruth conniff.

and i think that does make a difference in wisconsin.ned to that and they're really motivate zbld senator taylor, are you concerned that governor walker might have some dirty tricks? >> we need to work on making sure we have our attention on intimidati intimidation, voter suppression, those are the kinds of issues we've seen the republicans do here consistently. so those are concerns. i don't suggest that they aren't. but people didn't vote governor walker in last time because of his policies. they voted him in mostly because they didn't agree with recalls. so i don't expect that he will be able to influence people's ability to get out to vote because we're going to stop them and i don't think he's going to change people's opinions on president obama. >> and quickly, senator, will president obama the president win wisconsin? >> i feel very confident that he wiin

wisconsin since he's been on the ticket. mitt romney, his campaign has not had any momentum in wisconsin to the point where they had ab ahead in any of the polls. said they were going to vote r for president obama, i don't see the romney campaign winning wisconsin. i really don't. the president's going to be in madison, going to be 40, 50,000 people there. it's a state that's been politically wash eed pretty har. i think it plays well for the president. the middle class narrative and the whole theme of the middle class plays well in wisconsin. >> do you think real quickly, if the romney ticket had featured rob portman they would have a better chance of taking ho how? >> the fact we're even having a conversation who would have been a better pick does not bode well for the romney camp. i want to go back to ohio for one thing quickly. in cuyahoga county, they are 12,000 votes short of this mark in 2008. the get out to vote effort has got to be overwhelming today. overwhelming tomorrow for the democrats to win in ohio because th

>> i feel very confident that he will win wisconsin.

june was tough for wisconsin.e looking add baldwin and obama and zerban as a chance to push back. >> good to have you with

what if he can't get a wisconsin? wisconsin would put him over the top. what's his fastest way to get there? you put ohio back over here and he could do it then without colorado and without iowa. so his fastest way to 270 would be florida, virginia, ohio and new hampshire. so there's a way to watch this night. there's a way to watch it before 9:00. what we haven't called can tell you about where the night is headed. next on the low down on the down ballot races. you're watching a special prime time he designation of "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ >>> there are other important races out there that we're watching. 33 senate seats up for grabs. believe it or not there are sa of them that we think will be decided by less than 10 points. it's the mother lode of great races. six are in so-called red states, and three are in blue states. joining me now, nbc news and editor, charlie cook. this has been a great year for senate races. >> yeah, it's a shame. if this were a mid term election, they would get new credit. >> i'm going to put up. what we h

our ted rowlands is in racine, wisconsin, this morning.derstand you caught up with some of these volunteers. >> yeah, randi, we went along with volunteers from both sides. this is a close race here and both campaigns are urging all their volunteers, not only from wisconsin, but from neighboring states to come here to wisconsin and help them get out the vote. this is what the political ground game looks like in racine, wisconsin. chelsea and adam are part of team romney and terry jackal is with team obama. each side is arm would addresses of people that support their candidate. their job is to meet them face-to-face, if nobody is home, leave a pamphlet, if somebody answers, get them to vote. >> i hope i'm making a difference. i believe that i am. >> reporter: both campaigns believe going door to door and making phone calls -- >> my name is ben and i'm volunteering -- >> reporter: even though a lot of times the people answering the phone. >> some people just don't want to talk. >> reporter: or the door -- >> thank you very much for your time

june was tough for wisconsin.hey are looking add baldwin and obama and zerban as a chance to push back. >> good to have you with us. that's the "ed show." he'll be here with special election coverage. the rachel maddow show starts now. >> on a personal note, i want to say one thing about this crisis. as for myself and those of us who work here on this show, we have been very lucky and very blessed this week as this disaster has unfolded in the communities we all live in. everyone on our staff is safe. nobody has been injured. our families are okay. a lot of us have property dama

we're going to listen in to the president who's about to speak at his event in wisconsin. >> hello, wisconsinin green bay, wisconsin. [ cheers and applause ] i want to thank all of you for giving such a warm welcome to a bears fan. and i especially want to thank one of the greatest defensive players in nfl history for being here today, charles woodson! and i want to thank charles because i understand he made an announcement about a gift to the red cross to help support everybody over on the east coast. that's the kiennd of guy he is. we're grateful to him. thank you, charles. let's also give it up for your next united states senator tammy baldwin. [ cheers and applause ] she's going to be following leaders like herb cole and russ feingold in being fierce fighters for the people of wisconsin. now, for the past few days all of us have been focused on one of the worst storms in our lifetimes. we're awed and humbled by nature's destructive power. we mourn the loss of so many people. our hearts go out to those who have lost their loved ones. we pledged to help those whose lives have been turned up

i think paul ryan and frankly people in wisconsin, as you know as a good cheese head, people in wisconsin are very proud of the local boy doing well and i think ryan is likely to help carry the state. my guess is wisconsin will go for romney. >> president bill clinton, we brought up pennsylvania. i thought it unusual that he -- the fact that he was going to pennsylvania for president obama this late was actually case that the obama campaign was not so certain that that is locked up? >> the fact that romney was in bucks county sunday night for a huge rally, i think over 30,000 people, the fact that he's coming back to pittsburgh which we are told is the second biggest area of democrats for romney after north carolina, is a bag indicator. the fact that karl rove's group, he himself said has put $2 million in advertising this week into pennsylvania tells you pennsylvania is a plan. i agree with you," it's smart to send bill clinton is because obama can't help himself. there are though votes there that he doesn't have that a visit by them will get. and bill clinton is a great campaigner. but

it looks chilly in wisconsin.t to ask you, off the top, a very serious question about how this president is going to segue from what he has been doing the last three days, which has been in emergency mode, into a stump speech. >> reporter: you know, i think we may have gotten a preview of that, actually, ashleigh, because we did hear from charles woodson, a safety from the green bay packers, a popular person here. and he was making the case for the government providing services or assistance for people, and then he was saying that he was raised by a single mother, and that the government stepped in to bridge the gap in between jobs for her and the family, just as he said, the federal government is doing on the east coast. with the storm. and then he pledged some money to the red cross for that. so i think we may be seeing some kind of segue in that regard, certainly from someone introducing president obama. i have to tell you, about a minute or so ago, air force one touched down here in green bay, a pretty dramati

wisconsin will be another one of those states to watch. wisconsin is one of those alternative romney place if you lose ohio. let me explain this briefly. pick up to and in wisconsin thanks to paul ryan being a running mate. maybe pick up the six in iowa. an uphill battle. polls show the president leading by five points are so. that is how you, altogether 16 electoral votes to offset the 18 you potentially lose in ohio. anyone's guess, but something will pursue now with sarah palin who remembers the pressure of this night four years ago. very good to have you. thank you for joining us. >> thank you so much. nice to speak with you. neil: have you think it is going? >> well, as predicted, very, very close. i was just trying to pay as close attention as i could to your commentary, trying to hear what you were saying about ohio. that, of course, is a bit of a bellwether and very pivotal. what is new with ohio, maybe you have a better update and i do. neil: as i try to say, it's hard with all these different states coming in. too close to call.

in wisconsin. this is a group that president obama won handily four years ago. almost 2-1. 64% to 35%. he's ahead again this time around. not quite as strongly but still with a sizable majority. those young voters told us overwhelmingly they are satisfied with the obama administration. 71% said they were satisfied. who do they blame for the state of the economy? well, number one, former president obama. 59% told us they put him at the top of the list and pointed the finger at him for the blame. but the state of wisconsin, the we have them leaning towards president obama, young voters the reason why, scott. >> pelley: anthony, thank you very much. the strategy tonight as you know is to put together enough states to get to 270 electoral votes. john dickerson has been doing the math for us and has a lesson on how you reach 270. john? >> scott, let's embrace for moment the obama fantasy which is that we've put ohio and wisconsin into the lean category, we haven't gone more than, that but they would lik

in wisconsin is enthusiasm and voter intensity.2010, when republicans had historic electoral gains through the state, the story of the day was not that the democrats stayed at home. rather, the story was that the republicans turnout. >> reporter: indeed republicans are counting on gains they made two years ago when scott walker became governor and both chambers of the state legislature flipped from democrat to republican. that was followed by a recall campaign started by public- sector labor unions aided by democratic state legislators and voters. all in all, it led to the chief fact of political life in wisconsin: bitterly divided, almost permanent political warfare for almost three years now. this is state that is both energized and exhausted. >> i can't wait for it to be done. i'm just tired of all the negative things. one person trashes the other one. >> the ads all seem to be negative. you kind of tune them out when it's negative. >> it is annoying with all the calls and the ads and all that kind of stuff. most people know who

. >> can he win with wisconsin, iowa, virginia, and florida?clearly, he will win with all those. he could win without some of those things as long as he holds onto wisconsin and iowa he could lose a bunch of other states. that's his firewall. he's spending a bunch of time in the firewall states like nevada and wisconsin and iowa. that's the way that he holds on even if romney somehow runs the table in florida, virginia, and ohio. if he can hold those other states, he can still win. >> chuck, you go along with that? >> i do. >> we need virginia and florida? >> i have been trying -- the sunday romney schedule had been in the dark. they had set it up. here is the sunday schedule. we just got it. iowa, ohio, pennsylvania, and virginia. now -- >> pennsylvania, they got a chance there? yes. is it likely? >> feels like they're looking for more paths and more opportunities. they basically failed to expand the map early. they're hoping maybe hope upon hope that they steal a state late, that somehow they could scramble the whole thing up with pennsylvani

>> wisconsin is always a tough state. how many times do we need to win wisconsin to make people republicans are good. >> you were off by 14 points in 2008? >> 2008 was terrible through the midwest for republicans. the democrats are nowhere near where they need to be. if you look at the top ten counties in wisconsin, scott walker won seven out of ten twice. we know where we need to be. if you go to wausau, eau claire, green bay, we are overperforming >> greta: the fact that scott walker won by four points in 2010 and then the recall hasing him down, republicans fought back and won by 6 points in the recall. to a state that keeps flip-flopping back and forth? >> polls said we were going to lose by 7 points on the recall. we knew from the g.o.p. universe on the way we track ballots, way we do early vote. we know exactly what percentage every single morning, what percentage of our ballots are turned in and request forms are made of municipal clerks across wisconsin and ohio. what percentage those are turned in based on the g.

but in wisconsin, democratic congressmember tammy baldwin defeated republican tommy thompson in wisconsin senate race, becoming the first openly gay u.s. senator. election day also saw voters decide on a series of landmark ballot initiatives to rewrite state laws. advocates of marriage equality ended tuesday with four out of four victories, as voters legalized same-sex marriage in maine and maryland, upholding same-sex marri washington state and defeating a measure to ban same-sex marriage in minnesota. in addition to same-sex marriage, maryland voters also affirmed the dream act, allowing undocumented immigrants to receive in-state tuition. in florida, voters defeated a measure that called for amending the state constitution to restrict abortion rights and bar public funds from funding abortions. in california, voters defeated ballot measures to repeal the death penalty and another that would have required labeling of genetically modified foods. a separate measure to ease penalties for nonviolent offenses under california's three strikes law was approved. california voters rejected measu

i went to high school and college in wisconsin.e are proud of our tradition, of broad public participation in the vote, chris. wisconsin -- >> and clean elections, too. >> clean elections. wisconsin and minnesota have the two highest rates of participation. that used to be something to proud of as a wisconsin resident. they are mad because they got their butts kicked by a resurgent democratic party in the state, which outorganized them. that's what it's all about. >> you know, teddy white when he wrong making the president in '66, when you have votes in states like wisconsin and minnesota, you can count on the vote being exactly right. let's go back to cynthia. people out there will say matte matthews, and you sign thea hear that dog whistle when it's not even there. maybe, but when you put it all together from sununu's loss of lazy, he belongs in kenya, thee ago. did you hear about the christian right wing guy said mexicans are socialist because it's in their blood because they come from a socialist country. wait a minute. arnold

wisconsin, he is behind.nsin is solidly republican for the last two years through the midterm and three le calls. they're organized and they have intensity and a favorite son paul ryan. if obama doesn't win any of the states you can do it one way. pennsylvania. why? because it's virgin country. no anti-romney ads laid down like in ohio. romney is courting $10 million, in the last week to $3 million for the democra democrats. he needs one electoral vote. half of the state is the congressional district, new hampshire or colorado or anything. so i think he has a path to any one of those three would work. >> charles, we talk about it on the panel of what they're running on, both candidates. what about president obama's closing argument? >> i don't think he has got one. the same as the old argument. the argument is romney is bad guy. trust me. i don't think that sells. what you've got is obama having a bit of a surge last week when the race was frozen, the national polls. obama was behind by five. obama rallied. l

and that means wisconsin or pennsylvania. and some sane people in the romney campaign who believe those ohio polls, they're just too kwiconsistent and too far o of reach, then you have a make a play somewhere else. pennsylvania, why not? i mean, it's right into the other. >> you've come down from your perch in that rare of the country. >> yes. the square states in the middle. >> what do you predict for the president's firewall in terms of wisconsin, iowa, and ohio? >> ohio just looks so certain to me. i know that there are a lot of people in the conservative side, the republican side that refuse to believe these things. i heard polthers as one to describe them. people tweeting things like i don't believe polls that fly in the face of all other evidence as though there was evidence besides polls. i think ohio's going to -- there's tears of laughter coming at the play for minnesota. i live in minnesota. no. i'm sorry. and wisconsin looks like it's pretty good for obama too. these are states that these are not radical states. th

he's won wisconsin. he ends the campaign where he began more than four years ago with that stunning win in the iowa caucus in january 2008 against hillary clinton, surprised the world there. he came back on his last rally of his last campaign and shed a tear last night as he was speaking to the people of iowa and iowa has come through for him and if you look at that right now, with new hampshire and wisconsin and iowa -- want to put up this possibility board right now that shows that president obama has 257 electoral votes. he is closing in on that 270. ohio would put him well over the top but at this point he doesn't even necessarily need ohio. he could get there with a combination of two small states in the west, nevada and colorado would put him at 272 so he has two distinct paths right now to 270 electoral votes, something that mitt romney does not have right now, matt dowd. >> absolutely true. he can lose ohio, virginia and florida and still win by carrying colorado and nevada and that's the situati

, wisconsin being the home state of his running mate, paul ryan.d earlier that the best choice he has made next to ann romney, is picking paul ryan as his running mate. that crowd was chanting four more days and the obama crowd in ohio was chanting four more years. we talk more about ohio because this has been a huge focus of these campaigns in the final days. mitt romney, after finishing up at wisconsin, he's going to have two stops in ohio. joining me now is larry sabatoe. editor of the crystal ball blog. lar larry, good to have you here. ohio has been moved to tossup category yesterday. you have it as leaning democratic. are polls tightening there? and does the president have enough of an edge to see him through because he needs ohio so badly? >> we see no evidence at all. if you look at the polling averages or even if you examine individual polls, we put ohio as lean democratic, lean obama at the end of the september. we have seen absolutely no reason to change it. we see absolutely no reason to change it now. sometimes groups at rates overreac

we turn now to wisconsin. no republican presidential candidate has won the state since ronald reagan. diane eastabrook has more on this. she's standing by in milwaukee. diane. >> reporter: susie, the latest polls show president obama winning by a couple of percentage points. but it could be a squeaker. in this working class neighborhood on milwaukee's northwest side, voters poured into a school administration building to cast ballots throughout the day. >> we had lines at 7:00. before the polls even opened, there were probably 20 to 30 people in line. >> reporter: while wisconsin native paul ryan tops the republican ticket with mitt romney, the economy was more important to the voters we spoke to than badger state pride. >> right now, i'm unemployed, so whoever is going to make it better, i'm all for that. >> reporter: in september, the unemployment rate in wisconsin was 7.3%; when president obama was elected in 2008, the state's unemployment rate was 5.9%. while the state has added only 4,100 jobs from januar

so, wisconsin, we know what changes. we know what the future requires, but we also know it's not going to be easy. back in 2008 we talked about it, and everybody sometimes romantic sizes the last campaign, the posters and, you know, all the good feeling, but i said back then and when i talk about change, i'm not just talking about changing presidents or political parties. i'm talking about changing how our politics works. i ran because the voice of the american people, your voices had been shut out of our democracy for way too long. by lobbyists and special interests and politicians who will say and do anything just to keep things the way they are. to protect the status quo. the status quo in washington is fierce. over the last four years that status quo has fought us every step of the way. they spent millions trying to stop us from reforming the health care system. spent millions trying to prevent us from reforming wall street. they engineered a strategy of gridlock in congress refusing to compromise on ideas that both