this is the president's advertising in wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan. you notice wisconsin, 6.1 to 1.1. pennsylvania, 13 million to 8 million. michigan, 8 million to 5 million. biden is already outspending him. flip the coin, david, if you were, sorry to put you in uncomfortable position, advising the president's campaign and you know you're short money, costs money to put air force one in the air, how do you try to find the magic like four years ago? >> obviously he is barn storming many of the states we mentioned. the question, john, is, and this is a little off track of your inquiry, but is he helping himself in those states. if you go to michigan and do what he did and you inflame feelings about the governor, mock her for being the target of a kidnapping attempt, does that help you. if you go to wisconsin, minimize the virus at a time it is a major emergency in that state, does it help you. theoretically it does help to go to these states. the question is whether he is helping himself by doing it. >> let me walk through a scenario. tell me if you dis

number one, joe biden has favorability ratings that are positive in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. they are neutral in ohio. ohioans, asthat well as people in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania, think joe biden could do a donald trumpan of handling the coronavirus outbreak or pandemic, as well as unifying the country. ohio has been one of the states hardest hit by the coronavirus jobseak, and its effect on , so the unemployment rate here in april was actually just as high as it was in 1976 when they started tracking this in ohio. there are some things working for trump in the state, and then includes our demographics. we have slower growth rates than the rest of the country. we also have a less diverse population, and we have more white voters with less education than the rest of the country, and all of these demographic , buts favor donald trump we see biden making inroads among key groups that donald won inne in 2016 -- 2016, including white working-class voters and those without a college degree. --t: what is unique without about the great lakes state polling that you do? wh

andy: at the end of the day, it is all about wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania. if joe biden wins all three of those, he is the next president of the united states. if president trump wins just one of them, he is reelected. if it is a close race and there is no substitution in one state

number one joe biden net favorability ratings are positive in michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania and they are neutral in ohio. we also see that ohioans as well as the bowl in michigan, wisconsin anda, pennsylvania thk that joe biden could do a better job than donald trump can handling the coronavirus outbreak or the pandemic as well as unifying the country in ohio has been one of the states that has been hardest hit by the coronavirus and its effect on jobs and the and appointment rate here in april was actually just as high as it was in 1976 when they started tracking this in ohio. there is some things working for trump in the state and that includes our demographic and we have much lower growth rates than the rest of the country and we also have a less diverse population and we have more white voters with less education than the rest of the country and the rest of these demographic trends favor donald trump but we see biden making inroads among key groups that donald trump one in 2016, including white working-class voters and those without a college degree. >> host: what is unique

instead, donald trump narrowly wins wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania, and he also takes battleground state such as florida and north carolina and ohio, and that combination of the states swept into the presidency, and electoral college victory. it was a split second. hillary clinton included won the popular vote but trump won the electoral college vote. what went wrong in 2016? an argument that are still being discussed and arguments another side are many sides are still being made but nonetheless it appears that holes in these key states either into their polling too early or failed to wait their percentages, failed to wait the results in a statistical adjustment that pollsters inevitably make. they fail to specifically adjust for college, noncollege educated voters who went to trump fairly heavily. that is one interpretation of some of these erratic polls in key midwestern states. and it's also pretty clear that trump picked up undecided voters in large numbers toward the end of the race, and yet more undecided swing into him and hillary clinton had swinging to her. so the combinat

then the biden strategy is protect wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. the three most spoken words in presidential politics. michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania. biden would protect them. what if biden thinks he has a strong debate thinking not only do we have all of that money but we had a strong debate. you think, not only do you have money. michael bloomberg is spending money in florida for you. all of these democratic senate candidates are blowing the republicans away in fundraising. a lot of money to spend. you are thinking if you have a strong debate this will hold true. you will be leading in michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin. you are in play in arizona and leading a little bit. you are in play in iowa and georgia and florida and competitive in ohio and even close in texas, right, and in florida. if you are biden, a lot of democrats say you come out of the debate strong. think big and bold and think about making a statement. you take florida if you are joe biden, game over. if you get north carolina back from the democrats, there is just no way th

president trump won wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania by very slim margins.d a million voters to the roll in those battleground states are going to have a lot more cushion because a newly registered voter is 99% likely to vote that year. >> juan: democrats continue to criticize judge amy county barrett and the supreme court confirmation process. we are going to talk about that next right here on "the five." ♪ joe biden was raised with middle class values. joe doesn't need to be the center of attention. or see himself on tv. he has always focused on getting the job done. joe led us out of the 2008 recession, and increased health coverage for millions. as president, joe will focus on getting us out of our crises. he'll listen to experts, work across the aisle. and put the american people first. ff pac is responsible for the content of this ad. i wondered.. could another come around the corner? or could it play out differently? i wanted to help protect myself. my doctor recommended eliquis. eliquis is proven to treat and help prevent another dvt or pe blood clot

the campaign sees their path to victory running through those three michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania states heading into tuesday. >> nia, the president continues to trivialize the coronavirus pandemic and keeps saying covid, covid, covid. he accuses doctors of inflating the coronavirus deaths for profit. we heard his son, donald trump jr., make truly outrageous comments about the coronavirus death toll, at one point suggesting that the death toll from coronavirus in trump jr.'s words almost nothing. these are awful statements as more and more americans are dying. >> about 1,000 a day dying is not nothing to those families. listen, these kinds of comments are why donald trump's ratings in terms of how he has handled coronavirus are so poor. 65% of americans believe he has done a it terrible, terrible job and this is likely going to be a referendum on his handling of covid. those statements do not help him. listen, his base likely agrees with him but his base is probably not enough to win him this election come november. >> and i just checked today. the last three days alone, 2,950 ame

keep in mind, pennsylvania the biggest of these three in terms of electoral votes as well. so if biden were to pick off wisconsin and michigane to engineer a victory in pennsylvania, you see that 306 total that trump had in 2016 would drop, but he'd still be above 270. he'd be at 280. from that point, his margin for error would be almost nonexiste nonexistent. if he were to lose florida at that point, a georgia, a north carolina, an ohio, anything like that, that would be it. that would be curtains for trump. there is the possibility in a scenario like this where if he lost arizona but managed to hang onto that congressional district in omaha, that would be a 269-269 tie for him. but basically for the president, pennsylvania, one of the three midwest states but really pennsylvania looms as a must-win for him. the other way of looking at this for the president is, florida, how florida looms as a must-win state. that's going to be one of those 7:00 eastern time we're going to start getting vote returns from florida. we're probably going to get a pretty good picture of where things are going in florida on election night. just l

that's the other thing when you compare state to state, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, this is the easiest path for joe biden. just flip the states. michigan, look at michigan, the republicans are the most pessimistic about it because of numbers like that, but those are biden's best leads in swing states. the one thing for trump, when you go a layer beyond that, florida, arizona and north carolina, for instance, these are biden leads but they're much closer biden leads. when you go one layer further, still you get to some very narrow but you get to trump advantages there. to me, it's narrow that national poll show you can win one of the three if you're trump. michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania and really pennsylvania. show you can win that, and then something could start to emerge in the other states. because those are not as -- the gaps there you see for trump in the poll are not as extreme as you see in the first couple states. >> jonathan lemire, what is the goal? what is the closing argument for the last seven days? i know the staff wants it to be economy, economy, economy. but

wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania.s also interesting that polling to the end of the campaign through the last weekend before the voting, before election day, is a lesson that not all pollsters have learn or always put into effect. we see this happen time and again. saw it happen in 1948 and a few key polls in 2016. and another takeaway is that polling failures often correlate to journalistic failures, and in the sense that journalists often take their lead from polls, from a pre-election poll. polls are central to oh -- how journalists understand and interpret presidential campaigns. it is essential that polls are stolen how they set and fix and pursue the campaign narrative. so when polls mess up, journalism can falter, too. so journalistic failure is often equated to polling failure. it's something that we don't always keep in mind. finally, what might we see in 2020? what are we likely to see this jeer in polls will be more numerous than ever. seems like it's hard to escape the polling deluge and we're only in septe

information could make it more likely we will not know on election night who won. >> pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsinthey do not have big -- with large number absentee ballots and take them a while. we have inner tier and outer tier of swing states. michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania and arizona, florida, north carolina and democrats targeting iowa and rust belt and hoping for georgia and texas in the sun belt and trump trying to but nevada and minnesota in play. if biden holds everything clinton won and adds three rust belt states that's it and adds arizona where he is strong that's it. north carolina and florida democrats will never rely entirely on those states but they don't have to win them. the challenge president has is every place is the same. turning out more noncollege and nonurban white voters than pollsters expects and whether you're talking about florida, wisconsin, arizona or north carolina. he has to change the electorate in order to win. >> republican lawyers are claiming the decision by the u.s. supreme court and the pennsylvania supreme court would let voters cast ballots after the e

less than a point in michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin. ree of these states had not gone for a republican since the 1980s. if you take the average of the polls in these three states, biden by eight in michigan, biden over a touch and pennsylvania and by michigan. if you took those three states all off of trump's 2016 total, he'den under 270. so that's one layer of swing states there. the next, florida, arizona, north carolina. these were trump victories by more than a point, less than five in 2016. a little bit more of a buffer in these states for trump than the first three i showed you. here's the polling now. you've got biden leads. the biden leads are smaller than in pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin. and then the next tier here, these are states that trump won in 2016 generally by a high single-digit margin. georgia, ohio, texas, iowa. what does the polling look like now? narrow margins here. georgia and ohio, texas, a little buffer there. slight there on average for joe biden. again, you take them on three theirs there. if biden goe

wisconsin came out today. shows joe biden winning pennsylvania, wisconsin, and michigan.ll those states carry bied by president trump four years ago. early votes, it says joe biden has a lead of 78 points. this is not rocket science. if you have a 78-point lead, now, you need a whole lot of people to turn out. if you are winning 21% to make that up. most pollsters think the math isn't there. we'll see. but the president's losing. that's why he spent three stops in one state. he is losing badly right now. >> what other key states are you looking at? >> so let's take a couple quick things we look at. again, we will use the 2016 map as our template because we're heading into the very final week. first, nationally, i often say at this point of the campaign, stop watching the national polls, right? but joe biden has a ten-point lead in our poll of polls so this is significant. four years ago, it was five points, right? you you'd rather be ten than five to be simple. but ten states here on this graphic. all, carried by president trump four years ago. he leads in only by a tiny

most, if not all, and that gives the biden campaign the opportunity to win's, say, what michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvaniato win, say, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and the opportunity to win maybe even florida come as we see in the last week or so, biden -- francine: marcus, how comfortable or how confident are you that the people that you poll will go and vote? so if there is bad weather, if they are worried about covid, you know, could that change? because he really had to energize your base to make sure -- i think we have lost, actually, marcus roberts. i am not sure if marcus is with us. we have a couple of technical difficulties. really fantastic insight from yougov. aswill get back to marcus soon as we can. this race is 26 days away. as kailey leinz was saying, a lot can happen in 26 days. for market moves to bring to your attention, regeneron gains in premarket trade and several several, asking regulators to authorize emergency trade for immediate use. it outnt trump approved under a compassionate use program after becoming sick with the coronavirus. premarket gaining more than 5%. coming up,

in the midwest, which is where donald trump push through to victory or years ago in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvaniamap is wider than that. they will be in arizona, florida, north carolina, possibly iowa as well. these are the states that they think are up for grabs come next tuesday. so you're just going to see a repeat, hitting those same targets again and again. a lot of people are saying, don't write president trump off yet. no matter what the polls are telling us, is that the general feeling there in the united states? the polls give you some indication of what is going on. but polls can be wrong as we know. in the polls can be wrong that donald trump wins on tuesday, the polls could be wrong in the opposite direction and it could be a very big joe biden victory. we simply don't know at this stage. there's been a huge amount of early voting, the one prediction i would make is that turn up will be up both donald trump and joe biden have been there and at thejoe biden campaign event and it's actually been a record turnout of voting across the united states. i had a polling day. what is a situatio

as you said it's a very difficult path to $270.00 electoral votes he would need to win wisconsin michigan pennsylvania the key battleground states we always hear about plus a battleground state he didn't win last time around he narrowly won in these other states you'd have to have to pick up another state somewhere that he didn't win in 202016 here the other fast everything about florida which we were just thinking about was we always worry you know florida has a school reputation of being a bit of a disaster when it comes to elections because of 2000 but on tuesday we should have a pretty good indication of what's going on in florida because it's so key that all drum that should give us a pretty good indication of after all these polls and counter polls and claims and counterclaims as to you know what direction the country is looking to be in because as you said there's been this wreck or nail in voting absentee balloting early in person voting and unlike a lot of states florida counts its votes early doesn't wait till election day or even after in person election day voting is have been counted as h

he lashes out and he's been lurching from state to state many of which he won before wisconsin michigan pennsylvania the so-called blue wall that he was able to take from hillary clinton now he's trailing in those states and so he's throwing everything calling joe biden a criminal attacking kristen welker who's the moderator tonight these are things that don't really play well for with voters at least they haven't so far but truck doesn't seem to be able to control himself so he might we might see more of the same even if we can't hear him speaking to a biden when the mikes are off he still might do that just to throw biden off and this might make biden weak at least this is what trump supporters think and so if biden can't express himself if he can't seem strong there thinking that this might suppress the vote or depress the vote it might make people who are probably leaning more towards joe biden but they're not sure if they're going to vote for him yet stay home and so that's what trump's thing is he's not really tried to reach out to black voters or latinos so much right he's trying to keep by i

them to win this race runs through the upper midwest and states that joel mentioned, wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvaniaania. it's all about pennsylvania. if you block trump in pennsylvania, he really does not have a path to win without winning the other two more difficult states for him, wisconsin and michigan. so i would like to see the biden campaign stay focused on pennsylvania, yes, give resources to texas, give resources, because they have them, but the candidate should be 100% focused in my view on pennsylvania. that's how he's going to be president. >> that would probably also explain why mr. biden and senator harris and their two spouses are going to be barnstorming the state the day before the election. pennsylvania, pennsylvania, pennsylvania. joel, do you share that assessment? is that where the biden campaign should be focusing all of its attention over the next few days. wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan? >> well, mission number one is to get to 270 electoral votes. rick and i agree on this. that's what you have to do first, but that doesn't mean if you have the resources, you don't ignore

, maybe a little ohio, michigan wisconsin, pennsylvania. ich will they choose? >> seems they're choosing the fundamentals. the michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania. if you look at the map, i know you do this john, joe biden if he secures pennsylvania, his path is dramatically easier. it is much easier for him to get 270. the same is true if president trump secures florida. his path becomes dramatically easier. so deviating from that strategy would not make sense, particularly for the biden campaign. yeah, it would be great to play in georgia, to play in texas, to play in ohio. but they don't have to do any of those things in order to win. what they can do, because they are in a -- in the enviable situation financially is they can spend money on ads here and there, test the waters, they can send surrogates, send virtual surrogates given the coronavirus situation but it's all about pennsylvania. the if you're if biden campaign right now it's about holding the midwestern statements and making sure you have pennsylvania in your column and this ride

michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania. right now we have all three.e have all three in a lean "d" category. using the arizona example you just made that, hey, at the end of the day let's remember that result. it was really close. probably where that state is headed. what's interesting on the 2018 midterms, mark, is that michigan and pennsylvania, there were substantial victories for governor by the democrats there. not in wisconsin. does that mean we ought to be a little more on edge about wisconsin than maybe the polls show? >> chuck, i think we're all on edge right now with seven days to go. you're referring to tony evers' one to two-point win in wisconsin. wisconsin has been a highly polarized state over the last ten years. and where a lot of contests have gone between one and two points. but what i do think is happening, and again, we need to see if the next seven days back this up. joe biden is really overperforming with white voters. if you are overperforming with white voters, you're doing a whole lot better in places like pennsylvania, wiscons

with concerning spikes in michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin. according to new cdc -- a new cdc report released today, the coronavirus pandemic leading to deaths of approximately 300,000 more people than would be expected under normal conditions. with about 198,000 of them or roughly two-thirds of those deaths coming directly from covid-19. the cdc also finding deaths among hispanics and latinos up 53.6%. and deaths among young adults between the ages of 25 and 44 up 26.5%. so let's discuss now with dr. le lina from winn, former baltimore city health commissioner. doctor, good to see you again. i appreciate you joining us here. >> good to so you, too, don. >> you heard the information i gave, but when you see the map, what does it tell you about this second wave? >> well, it tells us that we are headed into exactly where we did not want to be headed into the winter months. we had hoped that -- there was a chance that we could suppress the level of covid-19 enough so that coming into the winter when people are gathering indoors, when it's going t

pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, red for trump four years ago, leaning blue now.look at nevada, came out today. what are you looking for in the final campaign? we talked about this before. we're looking for evidence. that's what happened in 2016. the national polls closed. we didn't see it in some of the state polls. trump surged in the end. in nevada, joe biden's lead was four in september, eight in october -- six in october and sick now. stability in the race. if you look at the map right now, you have to say still advantage biden. we keep looking for it. if you go back to 2016, we have not seen it in the national polls yet. in the national polls we did see the tightening. hillary clinton came in up four, it went up to five, then started going down. trump had the momentum going into election day. this wasn't wrong. hillary clinton won the popular vote by two points in 2016. so the national polls caught the surge at the end. the question is, is there any evidence of it there? you just can't find it. >> now the big question is where it's going to be tight, where a

messages to the midwest today particularly pennsylvania where four years ago donald trump pulled off a stunning upset by collapsing the blue wall of wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania and his team hopes he can do it again, good morning 5 am eastern on saturday, our special election preview. nationally biden is maintaining his lead over the president, the commander-in-chief gaining some grounding key states like arizona and florida if you look at which state the president is leading the real clear politics average is americans shattered early voting records with the entire nation energized like never before. phil keating standing by in florida as early voting ends today with bad memories of 2000 election were -- to you in a minute. in washington what the trump campaign is focused on in this last weekend. >> happy halloween, the trump campaign wants to create the same nightmare scenario for democrats they did four years ago when they pulled off a stunning upset, the president spoke in minnesota last night, a state republican 7 won since richard nixon in 1972. >> incite violence with their viral anti-police rhetoric and the fact that they are weak peo

people in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, minnesota, unions are much more active.was author steven greenhouse speaking with jeff. you can find the full conversation on our website, pbs.org/newshour. our october selection will look at another subject on the top of many americans' minds amid the pandemic, ildhood education. journalist paul tough, who has done extensive research on this topic, will join us to discuss his book, "helping children succeed," as thousands of students adapt to a remote learning environment. we hope you'll read along with others on our website and facebook page for "now read this," our book club partnership with the new york times. that is the newshour for tonight. i am judy woodruff. join us online and again tomorrow evening. from all of us at the pbs newshour, thank you, stay safe and weill see you soon. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by -- >> for 25 years consumer cellular's goal has been to provide cellular service for people to connect. our u.s.-based customer service team can find a plan that fits you. >> when

at this point officials from places like wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania are saying, six days in not enough time to be sure your vote will be in on time. that is because in 29 states, absentee ballots must be received by election day, or they're not going to count. in louisiana, you actually have to get it in the day before. of course, you can still put your ballot in an official drop box, or you can wait in line to vote in person, like the thousands of people who were doing this for days. remember, this was supposed to be the election we weren't going to do that. we thought the pandemic would make it too dangerous, but because of issues with the postal service and fears spread by this administration, this is where we are. here's the very crazy part. it is happening at a time when the rate of new coronavirus infections is at an all-time high. the united states is averaging more than 70,000 new cases a day. that is up 40% from a few weeks ago. yet president trump is on the campaign trail saying things like this -- >> you know, now with them, can't watch anything else you turn on.

in other words, 20 hillary states plus michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, maybe one more. 40% chance state. that's where he gets michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania as well arizona as florida, maybe georgia, iowa, texas, one or two out of those. that would be a big biden win. >> john, your latest headline reads don't freak out over early leads for trump or biden on election night. we're all going to be watching. what are the scenarios should we be looking for and what conclusions should we draw? >> good morning. i think, as charlie just pointed out, there's these different scenarios. you have the skinny biden win, the skinny trump win and the big biden win. if it's a skinny biden campaign biden win, it's likely to come down to the three rust belt states. i'll add as an aside, it's striking that charlie says 20%. four years ago 20% was the odds that the trump campaign and rnc were telling reporters was his chances of winning. in some ways we're back where we started four years ago. i do think it's a very different scenario and trump's chances are far less. but i think if it comes down t

carolina and georgia, that pathway will still exist, but we're not going to know about pennsylvania, wisconsin and michigan on election night. so there's not going to be much for him to celebrate. if biden were to win one of those states they would have plenty to celebrate, but pennsylvania remains a key battleground state, 20 electoral votes, one of the big three that tipped the presidency to trump in 2016. biden has a great appeal, one of the attributes of his candidacy is a stronger appeal than hillary clinton had in these northern states, in these industrial states, and he needs to win this state. i think the other element of this, john, is we have a tremendous early vote, but there's still going to be an on-day a election and there are indications that republicans are more likely to vote on election day than democrats. i think that biden wants to make sure if there are democrats who haven't voted that they do find a way to go to the polling place if they can. >> david, i just want to stick with you for a second because of florida. so there is information that the early in-person vote in at least miami

michigan today and wisconsin. let's look at what happens to his totals here. if i give donald trump pennsylvaniaand wisconsin, he is starting to make up real ground in the electoral college. next he is going to arizona this week. he is trying to win that back. that gets him to 220. donald trump is banking some states like iowa, ohio, north carolina, these tossup states fall back to their republican dna. that gets him up to 259. then he would only need either georgia or florida to get him over the top and become president. here is a scenario where donald trump wouldn't need florida but he would have to rack up everything else and have to flip these upper great lakes states are currently leaning in joe biden's direction. >> the poll show they are but still seven days to go. is pennsylvania a state that joe biden could afford to lose? >> he could afford to lose it if he wins florida. we have it leaning in his direction. let's say we gave that to donald trump. okay? he still 270 right now. he would still be president without pennsylvania on this map. let's say donald trump was able to peel back ariz

key states, that's president trump's best hope now, some of the same states as before, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. wisconsin has a bunch of legal challenges. really every vote is going to count in pennsylvania. >> david, you've watched a fair amount of elections in your time, including 2016 when so many were surprised by the end result. there is a review of this race that you hear in senator sass's comments and other republicans are saying privately of the fear of not just a loss but a landslide. do you believe that at this point? >> i think senator ben sasse wouldn't have spoken up if he thought this was truly going to be a close election because he would then be -- he'd be thrown out of the party in effect for tipping it over. i have a somewhat different view from margaret. i think what joe biden did last night was reassure voters. he didn't bring new voters but he gave reassurances that he's going to be a person that somebody can relate to. susan glasser i think had it right when she said it's mr. rogers on one side versus your nasty uncle on the other. one other point that's important. while

so, you know, you know that in michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, a large share of the electorate isollege white voters. if the polls are underestimating trump support among that group in one of those states there is a pretty good chance it's underestimating in another. there's also sometimes where polls will underrepresent someone's strength in a certain region so it wouldn't be surprising to me if the polls were underestimating trump in florida, there is a pretty decent shot they are underestimating him in north carolina because they are both southern states. these poll errors are correlated. just because one state might say, oh, look, biden is ahead by 5 plus in pennsylvania, wisconsin and michigan, even if he loses one he will be able to win another. that math doesn't necessarily always work out which is part of a reason why trump still has a chance. >> the converse is equally true, though. joe biden could win by more in all the states just as easily as donald trump two win there. i'm going to ask a rhetorical question, i'm going to answer and ask for the question here. when is t

look, i think in a place like wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, certainly across that upper midwest, i think you're still going to have fairly close elections. wisconsin and michigan are imperative for the vice president to win so that pennsylvania ultimately would decide the election in his favor. i do think it's certainly much closer to the 5-point race if not a little closer than that, than certainly 17 points. you know, they call these battleground and swing states for a reason. this was a very, very closely contested race in 2016. certainly the one thing that wisconsin is dealing with in a way every state is dealing with but wisconsin really dealing with, a sharp outbreak in covid cases over the last two weeks. and so i think that bears watching, but also the voting bears watching in the sense that the supreme court's decision to halt counting of wisconsin votes past election day is really important for a few hundred00,0hundred thousand that still have mail-in volts and haven't delivered those back, either to a government office or to a dropb dropbox. >> and robert, what are you

michigan. we talk about the upper midwest and that's where the contest is being waged now, pennsylvania and michigan, wisconsin and minnesota. a little bit later this hour we will move to southeast and tell you what's on the line. minutes away dueling campaigns, trump and biden supporters coming out in force and we will take you live when our coverage continues on this election special saturday. ♪ ♪ bill: welcome back, everyone, special edition of bill hemmer report. mark meredith in raleigh with a look at how the final day of early voting is going in the tar hill state. mark: final day of early voting. it is wrapped up and we are still waiting to get an idea of what the turnout was like statewide but the numbers, bill, they have been incredible on the ground in north carolina. the latest update from the state showing already some 900,000 absentee ballots sent back in and some 3.4 million people also taking advantage of that early voting. the real clear politics average in north carolina does show joe biden leading but by a slight margin, less than 2 per kennage points and we have seen the lead shrink in the l

cnn polls show biden has a lead in wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania.ch of these states do you think trump needs to win to have a shot at 270, at least a shot at it? >> pennsylvania. i think pennsylvania is clearly the keystone state as it were for trump. but what is striking to me -- and i'm really interested to hear from sara because she's done a lot of focus groups -- is that, don, there is a biden coalition in these rust belt states. if you look at the polling in michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and for that matter money minute, ohio, and iowa, it is remarkably similar from state to state. joe biden is winning 55% or more of college enl kated whites. trump is really eroding there. he's winning in states with large african-american population, winning somewhere around 85% of them. and most important of all, he's winning all of these states, all of these polls about 40% of whites without a college degree. that may not sound like much, but hillary clinton was down to about a third or 35% of those voters in all of those states in 2016. and so i kind o

you will be leading in michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin. guess what? you are in arizona.ou are even leading a little bit. you are in play in georgia. maybe a little behind but competitive in ohio. even close in texas and florida. so then if you are biden, a lot of democrats will be saying you come out of that strong, think big, think bold, think about making a statement. you take florida if you are joe biden, came over. the president can't win without florida and its 29 votes. if you get north carolina back, there is no way the president can win. plus get what? there is an important senate race there. two senate races in georgia. a senate race in iowa. a senate race in texas and, wow, if the democrats won texas, what a statement that would be, plus a lot of legislative races there. if biden comes out of the debate feeling strong, not only is he leading on the map, not only does he have a ton of money, then democrats start thinking, why don't we start thinking about a blow-out. >> john, stay with us. i want to bring in david chalian and abbie phillip. david, your take on t

that get it close and, again, the three most spoken words of presidential politics, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsins trump's map from four years ago, right? right now, in those three right there, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, joe biden is leading and he has leads, six points, seven points, even bigger, when you count them out. so what is the state of the race in those polls? boy, do i get it and boy do democrats get it but i just want to make a point here. if you look at our poll of polls, the ten-point average for joe biden. michigan, 51-43. so you see eight points there. 51-44. seven points in pennsylvania. 52-43. nine points in wisconsin. so here is what the president needs, again, because democrats think they are doing pretty well in early voting in these states. not just a big turnout, not just a 2016 turnout. he needs a mind-blowing turnout because look where the president is. 44%, 43%. yes, biden's among 50 but the president is stuck in the low 40s and he doesn't have the third-party candidates to help him this time. getting from 43 to 47. he did that four years ago. it's not enough thi

if you go across, for example, michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania. you understand if you are a blue-collar worker, that joe biden voted for nafta in 1994, he voted for china and the wto. memory, institutional from you and your family, of how we lost over 70,000 factories and 5 million jobs to joe biden's nafta and his courtship of china. and at the president has, as you know, been the toughest president ever to stand up to china. and we have the banking of the rank-and-file, as we did in 2016, but there are other things going on with that. go ahead. >> you said he has been tough on china, but i spoke to larry kudlow yesterday, who did not make any kind of statement about the coming tariffs on china over the pandemic. if he is so tough, why have it further tariffs been announced due to the pandemic? let you and i will larry have your conversations. but what i know about donald tariffs onat we have over $325 billion worth of chinese goods. we have put sanctions on china for human rights abuses. we took away all favorable treatment for hong kong after t

but the polls in the key battle ground states, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, they failed. been major changes in states that will make them more accurate this time? >> yeah. and they could still fail again. i mean, look, donald trump won in 2016 because he turned out more noncollege and more nonurban whites. they have made scaignificant changes in methodology, and to answer the poll in the first place. they feel they have a better handle on the electorate. it will be on the route, turning out more of his core voters. the problem he's got, wolf, is that last time, we said, he turned out more of his side while african-americans -- and latino turn out once great. and know everybody is voting in huge numbers. look at what is happening in harris county, texas, where there are other a million votes where the turnout is, the odds of train changing the turn out is, if the pool is getting larger. so that does put biden in a better position than clinton. but that is the big risk. no question, and there are democrats who are worried about how many noncollege and nonurban whites are vo

let's have that conversation after we talk about why president trump may well have won michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvanian, you got 8,000 fracking wells in the anthem shale formation in michigan, 9,000 in pennsylvania in maccercellus sh formation. in wisconsin, they got frack send in the western part of the state that employs a ton of people. if you think about all the votes there that hinge on fracking, it's thousands and thousands of votes and the margins of victory in those states are going to be quite slim. i think the president did an excellent job there. i think the second thing the president did to really help in those states as well as the rest of the country was to clearly portray joe biden as the lockdown president and the beautiful discussion about how the democrat governors in michigan and wisconsin, pennsylvania, have all erred on the side of punishing lockdown that really hasn't helped contain the spread. really i think set up a really nice contrast between the two candidates. the last thing is the president did yesterday outside of the -- liz: quickly. we are running out of time. >> the re

wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan basically from trump's standpoint he's got to sweep these states andk off one of these three. that might be the easiest way to look at it he is in striking distance here in every state he's got a sweep and then he's got to make up some ground in one of these midwest states but effect win all of these and get -- it's a tall order, but it's not maybe as tall as that national poll makes you think. >> yeah, for sure. steve kornacki, thanks so much >> you've got it >> 65 seconds, on a race to the finish now university of alabama football coach nick saban is asymptomatic but still in isolation after testing positive for covid-19. that's the latest word from the tide's director of sports medicine the big game with georgia on saturdays is still on for now. >>> and early voting under way in the battleground state of north carolina the historic voter turnout across the country keeps smashing records more than 18 million americans have already cast their votes. 19 days out from the election. >>> and election spending predicted to hit an all-time record in this ye

>> well now 9 out of every 10 dollars in this presidential race spent in six states wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, north carolina, florida, arizona these are the states that everyone's been paying attention to but now the biden campaign wants to expand into the deep south, georgia maybe going to get some more dollars in the coming weeks, even texas. >> are they in play? the numbers say they're close. >> the numbers are increasingly close. not just on the presidential side but in the senate races as well look at south carolina another state in the deep south. democrat jaime harrison, he's ticking up in the polls. >> hey, how much are they saving i get a lot of money how much are they saving for any legal challenges that might arise after the vote >> democrats know, shep, that republicans have already pledged 20 million for the post-election court fight over contested ballots. democrats say they will have more than enough to battle republicans dollar for dollar. >> money that they're spending now, you told us about where but on what kind of platforms? >> it's across the board the trump campaign in

michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin. is basically just crushing him in all of those states. in michigan, he has $32 million, versus $12 million for trump. pennsylvania, $54 million versus $24 million and wisconsin, $27 million versus $10 million. biden has been able to get his message out in the key swing states in a way that trump simply hasn't been able to. >> these midwestern states may be among the most contentious on election night. states with a narrow victory in 2016. final results for 2020, frankly, could take a while. >> yeah, they really could. two reasons why. right, number one, the deadline to get your ballot in. in some states, arizona, florida and wisconsin, votes must be received by election day but they only need to be postmarked by election day, so it could take longer to wait for the final votes to come in and finally, on the votes being processed, right, this is another key thing. in michigan, in the big cities, in michigan and the big cities, they get started to count before election day and a lot of m

them and then he would also have to repeat this performance through the midwest in michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania and again looking at the early vote out of there that democrats are coming out in record breaking numbers at this point so he's going to find himself in a pretty people come election day back in 2016 hillary clinton she won the popular vote but 3000000 more votes than trump is a repeat this year possible i mean could drop win the electoral college and the election and lose the popular vote to buy by more than 3000000. the to me the popular vote isn't in question i don't think there's anyone that you would find on that term campaign who could argue with a straight face that he has an opportunity to win the popular vote so then it becomes a question of as you say can he win the electoral college and certainly just based on the bias we've seen in the electoral college towards the smaller states there is a path where he could lose by more than he lost in 2016 i mean we're looking at turnout that could exceed 155 or 160000000 vote which is massive so he could lose by a larger margin than h

them and then he would also have to repeat this performance through the midwest in michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania again looking at their early vote out of there the democrats are coming out in record breaking numbers at this point so he's going to find himself in a pretty people come election. back in 2016 hillary clinton she won the popular vote but 3000000 more than trump is a repeat this year possible i mean can trump win the electoral college and the election and lose the popular vote to biden by more than 3000000 the to me the popular vote isn't in question i don't think there's anyone that you would find on the term campaign who could argue with a straight face that he has an opportunity to win the popular vote so then it becomes a question of as you say can he win the electoral college and certainly just based on the bias we've seen in the electoral college towards these smaller states there is a path where he could lose by more than he lost in 2016 i mean we're looking at turnout that could exceed 155 or 160000000 vote which is massive so he could lose by a larger margin than he didn't 20

not only is he leading nationally, leading in michigan and pennsylvania, leading in wisconsin by healthy margins, leading in florida. that's competitive. you're in play in a state the president won four years ago. in play, a little behind, but in play in texas, a state republicans have won forever. leading a little in north carolina, same as ohio, georgia, arizona. the map gives joe biden many options. he looks at a long menu how do i get to 270. if you're the president, options are smaller. you need a big debate tonight. the president's job, try to trip up joe biden. one issue likely to come up, the president's supreme court pick is about to be confirmed. joe biden is mad about that. democrats are mad about that. many progressives want joe biden to commit. if we take the senate back, we'll add new justices to the supreme court. the president says biden should give a crystal clear answer. biden says i'll name a commission, we'll study it awhile. >> i'll put together a national commission of, bipartisan commission of scholars, constitutional scholars. i will ask them to in 180 days come b

. >> in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, these states are whiter, proportionately, than other statesen we think about white men broadly, the question really is, is donald trump gonna get enough of that vote this time? >> polling shows more white men backing biden than supporting hillary clinton four years ago, especially if they have a college degree. some voted for trump four years ago and now have buyer's remorse. they say to make america great again, dump trump. >> said, i would do a write-in for a tuna fish sandwich before i would vote for trump again. and i really dislike tuna fish. >> jack doesn't want us to use his last name. >> i think he operates in the best interest of donald trump. >> he says after he went online to call out the president, the blowback was horrific. >> the man has been a failure. he is a man devoid of character. he has failed the nation. >> jack is now 60, an i.t. consultant living in michigan. he's also a combat vet, a retired army major with 33 years of service. he feels betrayed by the president's budget deficits, his character-- >> it's always trump's

number one, pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin.tes that made president trump president. the blue wall he cracked and made red, we have them for joe biden. all these carried by president trump last time. so the map is very different. the president is on defense. of course, he was losing heading into the last debate last time. what if the president turns in a strong debate tonight and making the case his advisers hope, joe biden will raise your taxes. if the president comes out of this debate strong tonight, the biden campaign might go into protect mode. let's say the president has a strong debate and people come out thinking you know what? iowa is going to stay republican, ohio, north carolina, georgia, florida, if they start trending the president's way, then biden goes into protect mode, which is protect wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania. as you can imagine a scenario even if the president comes out strong tonight that he would get arizona back as well. it's trending toward the democrats but you could see this scenario play ou