>> wti is the biggest input as far as refiners go. they use wti pricing.obal prices. so, the spreads are tremendous. the margins are huge. if we lift that ban and go to a collapsing of wti and brent, now, all of a sudden, their margins get squeezed out. if this ban is lifted, these refiners have had such a great run. they could lose 30% to 50% of their stock. >> you need the spread to exist for refiners to make the margin. if you lift the ban, it collapses. >> you get to a global price. you get to wti in brent. and a uniformity in global pricing. >> you have to be careful with the refiners. this seems like a structural call, based on some of the things going on. some of the synergies and the feeds that the stock enjoys won't go on forever. >> stay tuned. life with crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis is a daily game of "what if's". what if my abdominal pain and cramps end our night before it even starts? what if i eat the wrong thing? what if? what if i suddenly have to go? what if? but what if the most important question is the one you're not asking? wha

valero is benefiting from the differential between wti and brent.know there was $14 spread between wti and brent towards the end of last year and refining company buys cheaper wti and refines it and sells at more expensive brand. it takes advantage of that spread. valero is really well-positioned to do that. that is one reason why they're expected to actually do well. they have a 91-cent smart estimate. that is our proprietary estimate they come up with is far above the consensus. how do we come up with the consensus with the smart estimate? we take best analysts more recent estimates put more weight on those. we have a high level of confidence that valero is likely to beat when they report earnings this quarter. you're putting a lot of confidence in analysts. that is interesting. you've given us a energy name, bank name. give us a tech name. i came from consumer electronics show. curved tvs are everywhere. do you have a tech name? >> yes, we do. universal display, all the consoles, flat-screen tvs, iphones, ipads, all have a panel underneath and un

fallen tofor wti has a seven-month low. the u.s.ducing its fuel consumption and production has risen to a decade high. in the currency market, also a bit of an action in the euro. level in as deepest month against the dollar. back with more on the markets in 30 minutes. ♪ >> this is "money moves," where we focus on alternative investments. i'm deirdre bolton. here are your top headlines. and -- mario draghi is strengthening the central bank to keep interest rates low as long as necessary. he also said it is too soon to say that the region is out of danger, and he added that banks should continue to deal with bad assets on their balance sheet, even if it causes a temporary worsening of credit in the euro area. claims for jobless benefits in the u.s. dropped to the lowest level in a month. fewer temporary workers were dismissed following the holidays. we added more jobs in 2013 than at any point in the last eight years. u.s. governor -- new jersey governor chris christie apologized for a traffic jam that was allegedly triggered by one

the bent spread and the wti has really disadvantaged european refiners and put us in the cat bird's seat forex ports n-- fors europe. >> easy question to you. what's your outlook for the price of oil. it's about $95 in the open market now. what are you thinking, buddy? >> you know, our forecasts is coming out here at $95. we don't think there will be a big up side. we think the bias is to the down side. it will be off 5% year on year. >> addison armstrong, thank you ever so much. now new jersey governor, chris christie, he took the oath of office for his second term today. we have a live report from nbc's jay gray on what christie had to say. >>> you want to see some real growth for the economy, larry kolikoff makes his argument for abolishing the corporate income tax completely. now that is my kind of guy. that is more like it. stay with us for all of that and much more. abolish the corporate tax. i need proof of insurance. that's my geico digital insurance id card - gots all my pertinents on it and such. works for me. turn to the camera. ah, actually i think my eyes might ha... next! d

wti crude moving lower, gold shares starting off the new year bright as metals begin to show signs of new life. and will it last? that is the question, now thanks to the big move in gold, it was one of the best performing stocks on the s&p 500, posting a gain, but technology was one of the worst performing sectors, investors took a risk on the trading, shares moving lower on the analysts' concerns. take a look at apple shares, down 1.4%, back to the overall markets, this was a first-time stocks decline in the trading session of the year since 2008. and in 2008, larry, if i may remind you, we did end the year lower, back to you. >> yeah, okay, i hate these old wives' tales, i just hate them. if she is right, that i hate old wives's tales, i think this is a gift. a complete gift. all right, 2013, we saw a booming stock market, prices rose, consumer spending picked up. all good stuff. all of these helpful signs continue to energy the economy, and all business in 2014. me, i'll say it again, i think today's correction is a welcome investment opportunity. let's ask some of our pros, i'm jo

of course, the refinders are benefiting by the lack of crude oil exports keeping as you hear wti pricesthe producers would love to access the rest of the world and see themselves getting more money for their oil. sandra: so geopolitical risks, if we're talking about iran's supply, libya's supply, there was this concern that we were going to have a short in the global market because of these two countries and their production. are we ruling that out now? >> well, i'm not ruling it out, but the fact is that it's favorable to see progress being made on the iranian nuclear front because as the sanctions get eased, we are going to see her iranian oil hit the market. in libya it's really very difficult to say because you do have a split between the east and western parts of the country. a lot of violence, security fears, and it's all about jobs and money. so that is a concern in the market. sandra: all right, ann andy, we're showing the price of brent, still above $100 a barrel. here's light sweet crude. we use this as our u.s. benchmark, it's around $94 a barrel. what kind of price action ar

when it goes to the settlement price comes out in cash unlike wti is that runs in physical form.an now. david: you guys talked so far over my head. if you could see sandra when you were talking, sandra was about to explode. we have to have a debate on that. >> absolutely great. sandra: i polite. you have thenk you, sir. >> please have it. sandra: thank you for coming in today. talk about a bar tab? coming up we'll talk about the record-setting price paid for a single bottle of whiskey and what made it so valuable, david. david: if last year is any guide, the department of justice is set to raise huge sums of cash in 2014 from fines, penalties on american businesses. we have the scoop from a former doj insider. that's coming up. ♪ [ me announcer ] this is the story f the dusty basement at 06 35th street the old dining table at 25th and hoffman. ...and the little room above the strip mall f roble avenue. ♪ this magic momt it is the story of where every great ia begins. and of ose o believed they had the power to do more. dell is honored to be part of some of the world'great stories

so the cme, what's behind this we're seeing here in wti? >> well, people are giving credit to the good gdp numbers today. i think that's interesting whether or not it's significant, i'm not sure. more importantly what happened is it bounced off the lows that it probably shouldn't be at two weeks ago. had some upward momentum and gdp was enough to push it out. i don't think the upward move is quite over yet. it's at a trend channel now that i believe will end at just over $100. >> at what point will higher oil prices crimp budgets and start hurting the economy? there's always a flip side. >> certainly jim mentioned that $100 a barrel oil right there and that could be an issue because now you've got land a quadruple lindhy here. taper talk, unemployment that was weak last month, we've got, you know, worries about emerging markets and what now and now oil. good to see gdp continue to grow because that is a positive. interest rates remaining low in the ten year. that's another good thing. those are the only positives but you're going to have he

still uti, still -- wti trading higher. , has tom in of that running the heating oil?k you so much. in just 20 minutes, surveillance with tom keene. he joins us from new york with a preview. >> we are looking at 31 degrees in new york. let me come over here and click that centigrade. negative one centigrade in new york. manus is right. it is balmy. we have a little bit of warming up this morning. we are going to warm up in luxury goods. we have a man from saks fifth avenue. we will talk about that aspirational idea. of course, it is job state. we will talk to one of the great optimists of the american labor economy, john herman of mitsubishi is adamant the unemployment rate is going to come down fast and furious. we will talk to john as well. very excited about that. our chief economic correspondent will join us as well. >> looking forward to that. the big jobs data, the one the fed will be watching and the rest of the world will be watching. that is later on. tom keene and his team will have everything covered on that later. ryan. >> fram, before we had to break, here

but wti and nymex crude numbers are holding up fairly well today in part because of the news that wee delivery product opening up at around 300,000 barrels a day, taking that oil out of that hub, helping to unlock some of the production bottleneck that we have seen there over the last few years. so now we've got, with the other pipeline, the c way, somewhere in the neighborhood of 800,000 barrels a day that are able to come of the of cushing and that has folks very bull risch on wti and nymex and the heating oil nowadays with the coal gripping much of the nation. >> that's a big story and we haven't talked about it nearly enough. thank you. bertha coombs at the nymex. looking at the markets on this thursday morning, weakness from the get go. we knew it would be bad judging from the futures. s&p is down almost 20 points to 1825. and we are office shawly looking at the dow's worse single day at this level since the 20th of september. our bob pisani is on the floor at the nyse with more. >> it's a tough day. it started overnight. look at the s&p futures. you can see this simply. look at

turning to wti in the u.s. market, there it's a very different story.ross all the different commodities, which is this rotation away from e.m. towards d.m. or developed market demand. and it's more pronounced at oil than any other market. i know we've heard this theme over and over, but i really want to emphasize in oil it's striking. last year chinese demand was growing slower than that in the united states. now, people look at that and go, oh, it's not real demand because it's driven by the shale revolution and lower prices, however i want to emphasize is that the u.s. demand no longer reflects strong gdp in the u.s. but it actually drives u.s. gdp. so when you look at this -- uh-huh? >> i just want to ask one last quick question because woe're running out of time. >> okay. >> you had an interesting soybean trade as well as copper trade. can you refresh my memory on what you're recommending? >> yeah. on soybeans there we see significant downside risk coming into the may and spring time period. again, same type of story where we see weakness in the eme

the spread between the brent crude contract and the wti contract, as well.natural gas. yes, this cold spell is lingering and in fact we're seeing temperatures some 30 degrees below normal in many parts of the country. that is having an impact on natural gas demand and that's having an i pact on national gas prices. also near the highs of the session up 4% or so today and even into the stock markets we're seeing prices that while futures are 2.5 year high we're seeing highest price on record in the northeast in the cash market. we've had some difficulty with some pipeline and balances and that's caused prices and cash market to spike up some $100 above where they normally trade right about now. >> thank you very much, sharon epperson. what a day in the energy complex. what a day here. some of our normal tools for gauging the markeds are a little -- how would you describe, it bob? >> you're very political. the dow is a problem. the dow is not accurately reflecting the stock market. it didn't yesterday. dow is down 0.5% at one point. the markets, the s&p was fl

markets and the price of a u.s barrel of crude - known in the industry as west texas intermediate or wti - tracked the price of a barrel of crude that traded on the global markets. the price thof of the barrel oil came down and the global economy is influenced by a car tell. it's clear who gains from this scenario: the oil exploration and production companies, many of which are foreign owned. with all the crude coming out of north dakota, wyoming, texas, pennsylvania and other states helping to push prices down, these companies want to lift the ban and sell u. s. crude on the global market at higher prices largely determined by opec. and it's equally apparent who would lose: the american consumer, who would pay more for gasoline, more for heating oil and more for the price of an airline ticket. in in fact, according to barclays plc, lifting the export ban would stop the decline in u.s. crude prices and cost american motorists as much as $ 10 billion a year in higher prices at the pump. our country's refinery workers also stand to lose from lifting export limits. some recent history can h

lies the problem, oil from opec into the united states already trades at a significant discount to wti. they trade at a $25 to $20 discount to the united states, which takes it down to $85 a barrel, which then becomes competitive with shell. so that is a very big bearish scenario for the oil price. here's the bullish scenario. ford last week said their sales in china were up 49%. the chinese only have 44 cars per 1,000 population at the moment. the americans have 600 cars per 1,000 population. what if the chinese triple to the world average of 135 cars per thousand? what i'm saying is -- well, here's one more, back at the height of the crisis we were demanding globally 83 million barrels a day, we are already back up to over 90 million barrels a day. the iea which represents the consuming nations thinks by 2035 we'll get up to 100 million barrels a day. my point being is, great we get the iranian oil, great we get more shell and the iraqi oil, et cetera, et cetera, we are going to need every barrel. therein lies my case. for equalibrium. >> i'm speechless. i know you said you are not a

oil has been slumping close to $90 for wti, while gold has been gleaming again.how are they doing today? >> it's pretty much that story today here today bill. we did see oil prices come off of the lows but we finished right near the lows at the end of the session. overall the deal with iran has a lot of people thinking a lot more about supplies and the fact that we also are producing here perhaps getting close to a million barrels a day in north dakota. we've seen fund managers cut their net long positions when it comes to brent, nymex and gasoline. nat gas rallying. traders saying participants in the market don't want to be short ahead of the inventory number expecting it to be a record after the polar vortex. and gold the worst year since the 1980s in that big decline. looking pretty good going into the new year. funds have boosted their net long positions by 18% so far this year. bill and kelly? >> all right. so a little bit of a pick up. thank you so much, bertha. gold corp is on the move on the back of that. that stock up nearly 6% so far in the new year. >>

that's just for wti crude, which is at 98.49. the brent crude prices are down by about a penny. if you take a look at what is happening with the new year, the yield is at 3.036%. if wonder where we head in 2013. >> if you're watching the dollar, it is stronger across the board, trading at 105 of 40 for the yes or no. euro is at 1.3697. and gold prices, i believe they were up. up about $16 this morning. $1,218.20 an ounce. >> i was pointing out on tuesday it looks like they were going to close at the lows. but it didn't. >> should wige go across the po? >> yeah. people in california when they're watching carson daily, it's 9:00 out there. do we replay the -- do they watch the ball come sdoun? >> i sent a tweet out happy new year and then all these people wrote left coastist. >> i think that's a big drawback, but you're three hours behind everything. >> i'd take it for the weather. >> not if you tau the traffic you wouldn't. >> ross, are you with us? >> he gets there five hours before us on the new year. but he probably thinks we're missing out. >> but he has to live in england to

oil prices, you'll see wti is down by about 42 cents. 97.81. the ten-year note is still yielding below 2.7%. and the dollar this morning, obviously, a very volatile place, the currency markets. the dollar is up against the euro at 1.3533. dollar is down against the yen at 102.38. probably we should take a look at the turkish lira. you can see how those others are trading. also, let's take a look at gold right now. here we go. emerging currencies, you can see the turkish lira down a little bit this morning. argentine peso, up barely. so not massive moves. in the ukraine, the currency there is up by about 2.5%. gold prices this morning, indicated up by 0.2%. $1,245 appear ounce. karen tso is standing by in london. karen, the action there this morning? >> thank you very much for that, becky. as you can see, a lot of red across the screens here. investors still concerned despite the moves by many of those emerging market currencies to try and calm some of the sentiment. it's made not much difference here today. investors still taking money off the

up by 97 cents today, but that gets to 92.63 for wti.en-year note is still yielding below 2% at 3.97% now. and the dollar is stronger this morning. in fact, right now, the euro is at 1.3599. dollar/yen is showing 104.99. and gold prices have been slightly higher this morning. you'll see right now they're up by about $3. 1,232.50 an ounce. >>> the employment report for december is due at 8:30 eastern time. that's less than two hours away. joining us right now is kevin couplins, the u.s. economist at ubs. david joy is chief market strategist at meriprice financial in boston. kevin, what are you expecting to see on this jobs report? >> sure. we're looking for a pretty -- we expect a pretty solid report, albeit not as strong as the latest three-month trend of 200 or so thousand. >> so you didn't upgrade your specations? >> no, we did not. you saw consumer assessments of the labor market improving. you saw the ism, employment indexes showing further strength. the adp data in december are a little bit more suspect than they typically are in an

they are up 56 cents from wti trading at 94.52. at this point, the ten-year is yielding at 2.981%. the job numbers will be a huge focus for the markets and can impact where the bonds are trading. >>> if you want to look at the foreign exchange markets, the dollar is down against most of the euro and the yen. euro right now is at 1.362. the dollar/yen is at 104.53. gold prices this morning at this point are down slightly, $1.20. >>> time for the global market report. ross westgate is standing by in lyndon. i can't help but just wonder what you do on a weekend when there's so many great sporting things happening over here, and was there anything happening over there? i don't know, anything? do you get to watch? do the games get televised over there? like were you able to watch? >> some of the games get televised, some of the football games get televised. we have enough things going on. >> oh, really? >> we're okay. >> like what? >> yeah. well, you know, just the old soccer game, rugby game, cricket going on, there's things happening. it's okay. we're not under nourished, joe. we are

you look at the energy markets at least right now wti picked up 43 cents, 95.40, stuck in the range tweebetween 90 and 100, t ten-year note the yield at this point is 2.852%, well below 3%. you've been right on that call. >> i know it gets old. >> let's look at what's happening in the 4x markets the dollar is up against the yen and euro, euro at 1.3543, dollar/yen at 104.32 and gold prices for now are indicated or looking like they're down $2. >> why is this guy doing global markets? >> i was going to say we're here. >> if anybody's global it's us. >> we're across the pond. >> bob westgate is standing by russ westgate is standing by in london. >> you guys look good there. joe, how is it? are you all right? >> i'm fine. i've been avoiding, i haven't talked politics at this point with too many people but we're good. in fact it's so warm here -- >> are you going to take the coat on? >> you know what i have on under this? i have a sorkin zipper sweater. can you believe that? >> are we getting new animation? >> i joined the sorkin's letter of the month. >> excellent. i'm not withearing my sweater. t

we saw wti crude falling all the way back down to $95 and change. this morning on, it is still down there, down another 17 cents to $95.27. had been close to $100 a barrel before. also worth watching today, the 10:30 eastern report on natural gas inventories. then we have the latest oil decline coming about a half hour later. on the economic agenda, we have the major automakers reporting. the number of vehicles that they sold in december tends to be a pretty difficult month. you have mike jackson that told us in the past christmas is a huge season for them. phil lebeau and veteran auto reporter phil lagrossia will be joining us this morning. >>> later today, ben bernanke will be speaking at the america economic association in philadelphia. many people are looking at this as the chairman's farewell address, so people will be watching closely. steve liesman will join us from philadelphia with the nbpr chairman. andrew, good morning. >> good morning. got a little bit of corporate news on this snowy day. let me tell you about it. boeing machinists will

keystone pipeline to the gulf coast and that has caused the spread between brent crude futures and wtiat's a first time that has happened since november. other commodities we're watching. of course, we're keeping our eye on gold which has been this stealth climber here as we've seen equities fall and some traders are talking about gold potentially making a run toward that 1300 level if equity prices continue to falter. back to you guys. >> sharon, thank you very much. let's bring in bob pisani talk about the market and why europe's close may or may not change. we'll see. >> let's hope it does a little bit. germany closed at the lowe's for the day. they had selling there as well. sometimes you get a little bit of bounce because obviously there's been sellers over there. no respite really so far today. put up the s&p. the same thing bothering the market recently, big global names. materials, energy, anything in the commodities space have been really low. you see we're sitting at the lows for the day. as for emerging markets, etfs, we're in correction territory on most of them for the yea

we were down around $93 for wti all of a sudden. what happened? >> right. beginning in december a very sharp run-up in price. and this was driven primarily by news that trans-canada will begin shipping barrels of crude oil directly from alberta down into the houston area. so what we saw over the course of december was prices higher. that is priced for inland, canadian and u.s. crudes regressed towards the global price of oil. since then we've had a number of factors that have come in to help put the ease on price. first and foremost, it's the situation in libya. >> stephen, hold on a second, though. i mean, that price dropped really sharply in about three days. that wasn't due to demand and supply. what happened? >> well, right now the biggest driver would be essentially the rebalancing of commodity index funds. that is to say that we've seen a tremendous outflow of funds coming out of the market in december, and we undoubtedly had, again, the rebalance and sort of the shifting of positions held by these funds was primarily the biggest driver. >> did that c

oil prices, wti contract approaching that $93 a barrel level. and we're waiting for the u.s.ata to come out on wednesday that's expected to show another drawdown in crude supplies. meanwhile, we're seeing more barrels come back online from libya. that could be part of the reason why we're looking at the pressure here on the brent crude price. in terms of natural gas, for the last three sessions we've seen natural gas come up from those lows and we're looking at natural gas up about 10% in that period of time. we're expecting to see a pretty big storage withdrawal on the report that comes out on thursday, that after the very, very cold temperatures that we saw in the past week. and we'll see, though, if natural gas can approach what we saw for those highs above that $4.50 mark. back to you guys. >> all right, sharon, thank you very much, sharon epperson. >>> when we come back, the co-ceos of chipotle, their foray into pizza certainly getting pizza hut's attention. and dunkin brands looking to expand. and we'll get an interview with the ceo there. with fidelity's options platfo