wti crude and brent seeing green but wti close to $40 per barrel now. 41 in a bit. almost 42. brent a little bit higher and copper, i was talking about copper at the beginning of the show and why it's so important. it's a real gauge for economic health often because of the use in the industrial industry. we're in the region of 6 or 6.5 year lows on copper. so just be aware of that. now it's friday 13th. sri rejoins us once again from singapore. are you suspicious? are you afraid to walk under ladders and pick up black cats and things like that? >> i laugh in the face of superstition lou and walk under ladders. that's throwing caution to the wind. fairly grim out here in asia. we're getting the sinking feeling as we round off the week and it's largely down to what has been happening at the cyclical end in the commodity market you were referencing the price of oil and as a result of weaker energy prices we have seen the energy stocks getting hit hard and the hang seng is the week underperformer off by 2.2%. elsewhere the aussie market got hit squarely because the index heavyweig

wti crude off almost 3%.ntly changing hands at 40.67 getting very close to the 40 handle once again. it's been very choppy and volatile trading. >>> that's it for the day's show. thanks so much for joining us. i'm wilford frost. >> i'm carolyn ross. next up, "squawk box" u.s. we'll see you tomorrow. >>> good morning. a major european city remains on lockdown. the man wanted in connection in the paris attacks remains at large today. >>> in deal news, drug companies pfizer and allergan agreeing to a $150 billion deal. >>> crude is being crushed once again. oil prices dropping about 3% this morning on worries of oversupply and that strong dollar and the sweet sound of success, adele's new album on sale for just days. it's already smashing records. monday, november 23rd, 2015. hello. "squawk box" begins right now. >>> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >>> good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe concern than and michelle carus

in wti. >> a couple of things. brent has traded a little bit strangely but there is still a big range today. while it looks like brett was only up 1%. it was 2% or 3% range that it happened. so it opened lower and closed near the highs. now the question with oil you have to ask yourself in this environment, is there is a geopolitical risk but at the same time there is astill a lot of supply out there. i won't buy into the oil rally. i think this was reactionary. similar to what the market did. look at context. the u.s. market was down 3% or 4%. it would be natural regardless of any horrific event that the market would rally today on short covering. >> all of this said, is this a rally you buy and believe this rally or snapback reaction from yesterday? >> the friday selloff was severe and then sudden we come back today and after all of the news and all of the hand ringing over the weekend, everything else, you look at the market that was off 100 and then 8- and closer to the opening bell we are closer to flat. and t

wti down 2.5%. four straight weeks of declines to me that's movement with oil pricing going in the opposite direction, right? so i don't know. >> but actually oil was up on falling inventories and rising refinery output so we have the small pieces of good news that actually make the market spike a little bit but you have to wonder at what point is it going to translate into inventory. >> it just ignores any of the reasons other than the fact that we have the issue of the last 12 months. lots of supply and not enough demand and needs something much more marked to start the recovery and what i imagine will happen, we'll get a little bit of recovery. we start to get toward the 50 level run and 40 level and people will question whether we really have found the bottom and quickly that seems to evaporate. >> we'll get back down to 40. >> exactly. >> now as the fight against isis in syria intensifies the u. s. has for the first time begun targeting oil trucks controlled by the terrorist organization. >> un

wti, u.s. oil. this is discounted $20 alone wti. -- below wti.is out with a note saying that these rates will even have to be discounted more in order for people to buy them because they will have to be transparent -- transported more by rail and rail is very expensive. this has the potential to blow up the canadian oil industry because these guys are making less money for the oil they are producing. joe: quite a blow after seven years of trying to get it done. i want to dive into the terminal to look at great expectations for policy rates in the u k we look at this function a lot. market-based measures to apply what the market has been saying about the odds of a rate hike. alix: a bit of a freudian slip, "to guess." joe: exactly. people think of the u.k. will move for a while -- don't think the u.k. woman for a while. yesterdayhat this was before the strong jobs number. 50.8%. we saw the jump-- 15.8%. we saw the jump after the jobs number and the fed -- when the fed goes, that opens the door to people. when people perceive the fed as being ready

wti crude up 2.5%. this morning a little quiter.t close to the flat line. >> we're going to take a breather here on worldwide exchange. still to come on the program, it's come around again. yes, it's the season for whale watching. no, not the -- well, they're all mammals i guess but not the ones that float in the water. but the billionaire investors that are dumping their stakes and one is doing it in goldman sachs and also find out who is consuming more of apple. >> welcome back. japan may be back in recession but profit margins are set to reach the highest levels since 2008. let's get all the details from the nikkei. >> yes, japanese companies pretax profits are expected to hit a record high for the current fiscal year. according today at a compiled by the nikkei of over 1500 listed firms the total of pretax profits for the year ending march next year is expected to grow 6.9%. about $275 billion which is its highest ever. the pretax profit margins today at 6.6% which is higher than what it was in 2007 before the financial crisis.

wti, at 41.91. we're close to that 40 handle for wti. >> that's right. moving a little bit lower say some. others say we'll see recovery but it might have to do with global growth. >> yes. let's get to that right away. preliminary 3rd quarter gdp numbers missed a tad. up 0.9% year on year. this is verse a consensus forecast 0.3% quarter on quarter and 1% year on year. so italy's economy growing slightly less than expected in the third quarter. once again, trade is one of the big factors that is dragging on that economy in the third quarter and that was a similar story for germany and france. germany and france both logging gdp growth of 0.3% in the third quarter that was in line with expectations. the german figure slowed on the previous quarter due to iz export exposure to emerging markets. weak foreign trade also weighing on france but that was offset by strength in consumer spending. let's dig deeper into those figures with the head of economics research at barclays. i want to kick off with the german number and the drill down. private consumption was

. -- betweena strong the vti.ium and the bti is taken as a gauge -- wti. wti is taken as a gauge.onathan: the bond market is a similar story to central banks. the international aspects are lower. i know that is your theory. what is the more dominant theme going into 2016. it's a deep theme -- is it the strength of the domestic economy? is it the international factors echo what happens with qe? >> you can look at the past four hiking cycles. people have revised up as we went along. we started very conservative at the beginning of the rate cycle good we always missed. knowing where up the fed would end, until we got there. .his is going to happen the whole curve shows shift upwards on the real side. the bond premium is below. that has to do with the boj and the ecb absorbing. the question of whether we steep and the curve will be down to how much inflation expectation these essential banks will be up to deliver. jonathan: is the market leading the fed or the fed leading the market? ofh a 50-50 probability we all know saying it is 50-50. it is a coin toss and the fed should not be hi

starting with the oil price come both wti and rent are rebounding there. wti is above $42 a barrel. that could be off of the back of the comments from saudi arabia. they are committed to working with opec members and other producers to stabilize the crude market. you are come at three tons of a percent. copper and nickel were hit most earlier this morning. let's take a quick check of the stocks moving today. bhp billiton, the world's biggest mining company drop to a 10 year low in sydney trading. down 1% in london. we heard today on standard & poor's that this company may face a one notch downgrade to its credit rating in the next 12 months. volkswagen, could be a bit of good news. they signed a program because they have had approval to repair most of their rate european edges. they also made a deal with u.s. regulators to resubmit some questionable software. rolls-royce down seven to the 1%. we know that after the profit were this company gave earlier this month, the stock took a battering. update, the an company is saying they will change or restructure to cut 2017 on words.m chan

every time i see wti get down to 40 and tried to balance, it does not bounce very much.kes me that we have all fields want to go lower and wga -- wti could trade lower. jonathon: manus cranny joins us on set. you have to take responsibility for your own bad calls and decisions. venezuela, they see oil down at $20 a barrel. manus what you have: there is the never ending decline, copper below 4500. whatever word you want to use, there is no doubt about it at this cycle does not look -- i thought your panel was fascinating. one guest said it was time to buy and step down. is that how you make money? trying to be contrary. no doubt about it. there is a series of options. the euro is under pressure and there is a global, global terror down -- closedt down an entire city for three days. this is where you need to begin to see the ramifications of what terror is. that is one city in europe. ownce has undergone its struggles in the past days. even though our leaders say this will not be the normal state of two cities, completely and utterly socially annihilated in terms of -- >>

my prices, there is no change in demand so far in the lead up to the opec meeting, and here is how wti month. shows the wti average each month, so even the west texas and intermediate started and ended august right here above $50, the average price of that month was sub $43 and about $45 september, $46 and thenchange in october, and $42.92. that struggle for oil to break out. joe: it is just not happening yet. scarlet: just not happening. and what about oil rebounding in 2016? ballots, il far from should say, in the energy market. there is an energy analyst who has handicapped the winners and losers, and, doug, before we get to that, what is your projection for next year? are: the opec policies clearly working. supply and demand are on a divergent path. the market probably begins to discount by march or april or may of next year, so we think it will be methodical. so the outlook for the energy stocks is improving, and we think the point average is $55 this year and $65 next year. when you say the opec policy is clearly working, i think that is a surprise to most people, because opec is

. >> finally a quick check of gold prices and wti, brent crude is up by more than 1% rebounding afteray's steep losses. a similar picture for wti crude up by 0.8% and gold even though it's losing over the last couple of days as traders are pricing in an increased likelyhood of a fed hike in december. this morning it's bouncing back a little bit up by .3%. joining us now is the chief market strategist at bulls eye option. what number are you expecting today? and do you think the markets would react badly to a much better than expected number? >> i'm expecting the market to continue to see this upward movement. i don't think we're as data dependent as we think. i think the markets already factored in. there's going to be a rate hike most likely by year end. you've seen the dollar move up and the long-term treasure risk move up as well. and the 30 year. so i think it's a done deal and if we look at this, this is really just a sequel to the melt up we saw in october 2014. we're seeing this again. the markets rally. they flushed everybody out but the fundamentals never change. corporations

crude oil trades near a three-month low after wti falls below $40 a barrel.for more pain? those three stories dominating the next 60 minutes. futures in london higher. 36 points.tures up nejra cehic has your market open. nejra: that potential december rate hike from the fed looking just as likely after those minutes. still pricing in that 66% probability of that happening. the key things were the statements that it would be a gradual pace of increases. you called it a dovish hike. it seems that's the way markets are interpreting it as well. let's take a look at equity markets. asia open higher. starting to look at what europe is going to do too. ftse 100 up almost 0.5%. still waiting for the dax to open. prettyequities close flat earlier. dax up 0.9%. let me show you the dollar.

we're somewhere around $43 or $46 barrel when it comes to wti and brent as seen here. both trading off a bit along side with gold and silver. let's check in on the markets out of asia with sri in singapore. a bit of weakness coming from you overnight. or from you guys as well. >> yeah, well, i'll tell you this, not a great deal of conviction in these markets and that's down to the very uncertain global security landscape. so we saw a dip in the relative safe harbor of the japanese yen. elsewhere the sentiment is taking a little bit of a hit also because expectations effect normalization. still trying to price that in. on the positive side of the ledger, at shanghai, the mainland china equity markets did keep their head despite the volatility we're seeing elsewhere and it's upsetting the broader weakness against the banking names. all in all the markets over here on edge because of the security situation and that's where we stand right now. >> all right. many of you use this service. uber made headlines with a divergence from its core business as it's expanded it's oper

wti down by 3% holding at the 40.58. >>> let's get back to the top story. brussels is waking up to the third day of lockdown. >> reporter: it's been a pretty dramatic 24 hours, to be honest. 22 raids in brussels in the surrounding areas. 16 suspects being held in custody. they can be held for 24 hours for questioning. of course, the main target we think of these raids was trying to locate the paris gunman that's believed to be at large here in belgium. the man called salah abdeslam. they didn't find him. the search will go on. what we're left with here is a significantly heightened security environment. the highest security level that can be achieved here in brussels. just looking around me, i've got, what, three soldiers on my right here. further solars and military police on my left. you can actually see behind me but there's three army trucks down at the bottom of this street. very well known shopping street here. not a lot of people around. a better sense of what we have is a lockdown, schools, universities, the metro stations. i think that's probably t

wti crude up just modestly. brent crude at 44. oil prices still close to the 3 month lows and spot gold is up by .3%. let's check in on the markets in asia. >> good morning to you carolyn. we saw mostly a positive close for the big picture here in the asia pacific region but a lot of the buying happened toward the end of the afternoon session. i want to draw your attention first to the china market, the shanghai composite and the hang seng. the composite ended up .4%. the hang seng also saw three big ipos today up by more than 1%. now the pboc in beijing announced after the close that they're going to turn on the easing taps once again cutting the rate it charges to the banks for overnight lending as well as the 7-day bank loan rate. this is in order to add more liquidity into the system. the big push is to try to get lending out to more of the small and medium sized businesses. we saw the china indices react there. the nikkei was in negative territory during this friday but it was the last hour where traders decided to buy and th

wti, that is the white line. and you can see oil for the yellow line. alix: to me, if we are looking oil notlion barrels of being used, that would be a negative, but u.s. got hit a lot harder than brent, which makes no sense to me. this is a particularly weird divergence where you see the u.s. get hit a lot harder and i don't have an answer for that. joe: and both got clobbered all week. alix: but overall, if you see inventory across the globe, that would hurt brent, they should be down 3%, not just wti. we should point out that the long is with the bti, but also with brent. it is not necessarily a long shakeout, because it was half it both of the same -- it would have hit both the same. joe: and we are looking at retail sales, a disappointment. we are waiting for the spending surge that is not happening. here is a fascinating chart that are chief economist pointed out, this is the divergence between non-store retail sales, online places, and department stores. absolutely clobbered. these are two different lines going in opposite directions. non-store r

we saw wti down 5% last week, but we're seeing a little bit of a recovery in wti currently at 44.57 up part because the dollar is trading somewhat lower. brent crude seeing a little bit of recovery up by 0.9%. >>> investigators say they're, quote, 90% sure that a bomb caused the russian jet liner to crash in the sinai peninsula according to reuters. a noise heard in the cockpit recording is believed to be from an explosion. this as 11,000 russian tourists have left egypt in the last 24 hours according to the ria news agency. >>> meantime, airline executives have convened for the dubai air show this year where security concerns still top the agenda following the crash of the russian jet liner. let's get out to dubai. hadley is standing by. hadley, i'm curious as to what some of the executives are saying. >> reporter: given the political temperature, susan, it's no surprise that security is one of the main focuses on the agenda, not just for airline ceos but for military ceos as well. i had a chance to catch up with the president of the emirates airline. i asked him, is this a game chang

pickens: wti. erik: wti.ple see you selling, should they interpret that as capitulation, or something different? mr. pickens: no, i haven't -- i had it right, and we shorted it at $98. then we had it wrong. we believe we saw the bottom. we did not see the bottom, so we losses,k in long, took and are now out waiting for an entry point again. erik: would you short it in the meantime? mr. pickens: no. i have had enough short right now. the short was good to me. no, i do believe we go below 40. stephanie: i want to talk about oil exploration companies. you sold out of larger companies like apache, occidental, but took stake in smaller companies. where is the opportunity? mr. pickens: they would recover more quickly. pioneer has so much acreage held by production. that means they do not have to develop it. pioneer can develop at the pace they want to, not developed -- whatever. they can hold their acres. the others are just like pioneer. those, but we thought we had seen the bottom, and we did not, ok? and the rea

you've got wti currently up by 3%. gold on the back of the weaker dollar is also moving higher. if we can bring up the board convince again, currently 2.234%. we begin with the big meeting you saw just a moment ago. president obama holding a news conference at the white house with the french president hollande. john harwood is live at the white house. what was the takeaways? >> reporter: >> reporter: a couple key takeaways. one, they agreed there would be an increase and expansion of the scope of air strikes and intensificati intensification. hour. president hollande said, like the united states would not be committing any large number of troops on the ground. that's a key divides line for the president. the second thing the president said was the most important priority at the moment is de-escalating the situation with russia in the way of the shoot down of that russian fighter over turkish airspace. president obama said we need to step back, it underscores the complexity of the request for no-fly zones and safe zones for the refugees in syria, but there was not any imminent ex

wti trading 1.3% higher, brent 1.9% higher, gold whichcy safe haven during these times is 1% to the good u.s. futures are trading mildly to the good, up slightly at the start of trade after the worst week last week since august 21st. back to you. >> steve sedgwick live from london, thank you very much. let's go now to weather, check on your weather with nbc meteorologist bill karins. bill? >> good morning to you, mi a. dangerous day ahead, watching the central plains, we have an enhanced risk of severe storms and a chance of tornadoes late today. anywhere oklahoma city to dallas traveling through the region late this afternoon through this evening a chance of tornadoes and damaging winds, about 13 million people are at risk of the severe weather in this region. large hail and damaging winds are possible through the night into the overnight even to this time tomorrow morning, areas of eastern texas especially. the other story is a heavy snow event in the middle of the country and we have a blizzard watch in denver. mika, we're expecting blizzard conditions in denver tonight with up to a f

you're looking at wti sitting about $40 this morning at $40.08. what's going on? >> well, the decline in production in the u.s. has not come along as fast as people thought. it's about half as far down as we were first hearing. even a month ago. there was a belief that u.s. production had probably contracted by about 600,000 barrels a day. it's less than half of that at this point. and i think that's a big factor. that was a surprise. even the government statistics were beginning to look like it was down and then there's been some correction. i think that's the biggest single factor. and then also we're also not seeing any change yet in either russia or opec. so i think that is the -- that's why you're hearing this lower for longer thesis. that said, the contraction in capital spending globally has progressed and it's very hard for me to imagine we'll go through all of 2016 without seeing some real effects from that diversion of capital because the imbedded decline is out there and i think we'll see some effects probably by mid 2016. >> even though you're talking

commodities took a hit specifically energy, the first would be the inventory report this morning, for wti that was a big build over 4 million barrels but opec was out with its monthly report talking about its outlook. unchanged. it doesn't see an uptick in demand, it's a slight decrease in production in saudi arabia, worried a little bit about iraq, but, again, still near record highs. the third point is what draghi came out with this morning, this increased dovish tone. a lot of people are worried the dollar index will continue to spike and if this rate hike still on the table that will strengthen the dollar as well. these are all bearish factors for crude. the draghi part of that equation definitely took the metals down as well. gold taking out a key support of 1087, the next level to watch is 1060ish and a lot of people think that this momentum in both spaces is going to continue at this point barring some unforeseen catalyst. back to you. >> jackie, thank you. >>> we have much to discuss in our "closing bell" exchange today. joining us for that cathy jones from charles schwab, she is

the dollar impacting wti and also gold. crude prices down 2% on the session. 44.29 is where we finish. a 5% drop on the week. but still stuck smack in the middle of the range from the low 40s to the upper limit of 50. and gold getting hit as well, a $15 slide south under the key mark of 1100. traders think would can he go lower from here if she's conditions persist. remember, there's always a chance that we're dealing with a situation of buy the rumor, sell the fact. they buy the dollar index up which is bearish for commodities until the event happens. and then they sell it. sara, we're just going to have to wait and see. >> jackie, have a great weekend and thank you. >>> carter. s&p energy group is the best performing sector so far this quarter. up 13%. how long does the rally last? >> that is just it. so look at this. just look at that spread. i mean blue is energy. orange is s&p. i have to say, my eye sees that and it makes me want to make the bet that blue will catch up with orange, right. energy oversold. but what if i

cnbc.com. >> take a look at wti crude rebounding today.p about 1.6% right now as you see right there. 1.3%. >>> plus, will economic uncertainly following the terror attacks in paris take december off the table for the federal reserve and interest rate moves? we'll bring you that story on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. you ppremium like clockwork. month after month. year after year. then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. yeah... surprise... your insurance company tells you to pay up again. why pay for insurance if you have to pay even more for using it? i

and wti crude averaging under $50 a barrel all month for the fourth straight month.ng into a will be about euro weakness. and the consensus is -.3% on the deposit rate. guy: i cannot wait for thursday, janet yellen and druggie. -- and draghi. in officials gathering washington today to talk what the story john and i have been talking about. the dollar and what happens next will be determined today. if approved, the u.n. would sit alongside the dollar, the euro, the pound, and the yen. asia watchersome have to say about the decision. >> asset managers and central banks when i just go buy chinese renminbi because it is in the fdr basket. they're more concerned about what they could do if there is a problem, who would help them out? it will be evolutionary, not revolutionary. massive inflow of capital into china. they should see a ighting of -- re-we formal and informal holdings. >> conditionality -- there would be some implicit commitments that china made to continue in the sdr, but i don't think there would be explicit commitments. >> i don't think there will be an imm

wti crude slides toward $40 a barrel. 9:30he data due out it expected to show prices falling for the second consecutive month. so, the recovery is fragile. the european central bank's credibility is at stake. that is the view of the executive board member and i spoke to him exclusively in frankfurt. turn the argument the other way. athink what we communicate is view of economic conditions in general. we clearly said the downside risk had increased so you communicate that and then you hear the reaction function which depends on your assessment of the situation so the markets to the reasoning. who? i would turn the argument the other way. but the analysts have their own analysis of the situation. alsohe market behavior is reading about the mandate of the central bank and the assessment of the situation. some people say financial dominance or central banking dominance. i think we clearly communicated are assessments and art reaction function. the assessment we also said we have to be done in december, a full assessment on the basis of projections, on the very recent evolution and i woul

wti, becausenymex, yesterday, we saw a drop below $40 a barrel for the first time since august. looking unchanged at the moment. it is above that $40 a barrel mark. gold rebounding. we did see it trades stronger this week, but it has come generally under downward pressure. it is up 0.5%. , butr trading pretty flat still near that six-year low. industrial metals have been punished this week. just to highlight some of the stocks we've been watching too, looking at thyssenkrupp, the german steelmaker, it was proposed to increase its four-year dividend by 36% as profit rose in the 12 months through september. arcelor mittal, the world's biggest steelmaker said it is facing challenges because of cheap steel from china. thyssenkrupp shares coming under downward pressure today. finally, keep an eye on drugmakers. according to people familiar, pfizer is an advanced talks to buy allergan. that would value allergan, which makes botox, as high as $150 billion. that would be the biggest deal in the drug industry ever. keep an eye on shares like astrazeneca and shire. both these stocks have

scarlet: and we know that wti is at the lowest since late august, and that means investors are turningmistic on oil. this is the short bet against oil, according to the latest data from the cftc, edit it went up 21% there in the last week comes towhen it fundamentals, the story has not changed at all, which is excess apply and somewhat weak demand. put: there was a position out on this that you can get a snap back in demand, and it will be off to the races. it may not be long-lived. joe: one day. people are still buying it? a huge rally. issues in the commodities route is national gas, prices down 45% this year with oversupply, high inventories, warm weather all taking their toll, and the other big factor is investor positioning. bearsecord high as the dragged on the price, and david crane is joining us, the ceo of a utility company which also prices highergas to be a happy man. david, what do you think? david: i think given the supply situation and the outlook for the veryer in short-term, we cannot really argue with it, but as the largest consumer of natural gas in the united states,

. >> in the time that's gone by, wti went from 100 down to where we currently are. >> the most expensiveil in the world. who needs it. >> and we have a glut. >> we can't even find places to put the bacan oil. >> still overflow? >> you can find out anywhere now. >> i've got to tell you, economic transcanada may say jim, that's ridiculous. we have a place for it. it's not ridiculous, there's really no place to put that stuff. >> you're still hoping 45-ish? >> yeah. longer. i got to tell you the action in chevron and exxon shows that you that model where you have t the upstream and downstream -- look at those stocks. horses since the bottom, horses since the end of august. oil pipelines are nonstarters right now we're overbuilding oil pipelines throughout the country. a lot of those partnerships who thought they could make money on oil, they will not work, those deals. look at kinder. kinder is largely natural gas. even there there's concerns that maybe that pipe is not going to be able to hold the building. the capital may not return. rich kinder, i think, with the negatives referenced in

wti 42.10, up by roughly .4%. for the month of november it's seen more precipitous decline of 9% in the face of a stronger dollar and supply glut. we've seen a similar story unfolding for the price of brent up today. for the month down by roughly 8%. for the gold price, it hasn't been a very good month for gold either. we're down by roughly 7.5% despite the fact that there's more easing to come from the ecb. the big one out there is of course the fed getting ready to lift interest rates in the month of december. >>> amazon isn't satisfied with getting items to your door in two days, overnight, or even on the same day you order them. the online retail giant is unveiling the latest version of what it hopes will be the next again ner rags of the modern delivery boy. let's get out to landon dowdy. >> good morning to you. it may be no accident that amazon unveiled the new design for the prime delivery drone on sunday during the busy holiday shopping weekend and ahead of cyber monday. amazon releasing this video on yout

hike in december weighed on oil prices over the last few at as although we are broadly flat today for wti. 43.9. brent is off about 47 on the nose. oil prices may not recover before 2020 according to the iea. in the latest world energy outlook the agency says current trends including the continued growth of alternative energy will keep pressure on producers and lead to a price of around $80 per barrel by 2020. speaking to cnbc earlier today the executive director said a decline in u.s. shell production would drive a recovery in oil prices. >> about $50 oil price today and one of the main consequences of that is that this year, the energy investment are declining by 20 act and will continue to decline next year as well. we have never seen in the last 25 years oil investment declining in two consecutive years and this implications for the market and we expect it to recover around 80 dollar around 2020. and we do not think that if many, many years it's a likely scenario. >> what's really leading energy at the moment? >> first of all, the us. shell oil which is the main driver of the glut now

what's going to happen with wti? where do we go from here? >> i'm looking at the contract.oday's move was an important move, and if it settles above 47, which at this point looks like a relatively safe bet, then i think it visits those highs from late august and early october, which is around 51.50. i like the fundamental ideas thatcott put forwd, and i would say if, brett, the fed isn't going to tighten and the data this week particularly on friday's -- that could hurt the dollar and provide the tail wind that crude needs to get up there. >> okay. we're talking more commodities on the live show, scott. we've got jodi gunzberg with us. she has stats on the commodities move. you don't want to miss it. futures now@cnbc.com. >> we'll stick with oil. evercore ui says it is time to buy the big oil names. that firm upgrading bp, chevron, and exxonmobil today. it's our call of the day. all three stocks on the move. we're joined on the phone by the number one integrated oil analyst on wall street, doug terreson. welcome. >> good afternoon, everybody. >> interesting call. i'm sure y

wti hitting the lowest level since august earlier today.pply glut continue to put pressure on prices? we had to boone pickens hiserday gazing into crystal ball saying he did not think oil would fall below or dollars a barrel. -- $40 a barrel. >> it fell below $40. you have the reaction to record inventories. it is all about supply, supply, supply right now. we are seeing it pump more and more around the world even though the production is down in the u.s., we have a record amount compared to previous years that we cannot seem to trim out of. >> when we talk about this record global inventories, what does that look like? there is a lot of this stuff sitting around? >> there is a lot of visiting around it is waiting to be used. we had the same amount of demand, maybe slightly more demand. it is not a demand problem. it is not like our demand for oil has gone away. we have been very effective about producing it in the u.s. and opec has been producing more than its quota. we are producing more even though we are not drilling more right now beca

wti up about .5%. not been too much movement the last couple of days. october of course very positive. oil in the first half of the month very negative oil in the second half of the month. now shares of royal dutch shell are trading in the green after they announced plans for additional cost cuts saying they make the takeover work. they now expect it to increase by $1 billion and for the takeover to be completed early in 2016. shares up as you can see half a percent. >> we'll stay with energy related news with transcanada. that's a company behind the keystone pipeline asking the u.s. government to stop it's review of the $8 billion project that has now sparked a political war between the oil industry. the move is seen as an attempt to avoid rejection by u.s. president obama postponing the decision until after the 2016 vote. hillary clinton opposes the keystone pipeline while many republican candidates support it as a way to make the u.s. less reliant on foreign oil. transcanada that does trade down .5%. alcoa plans to idle three of the four active u.s.

wti coming off the worst week since march. 8% last week. currently higher by more than 1%. .43%. joining us live from denver is a research analyst from steeple. the energy sector had a rusing week. down 6%. the worst week since august. to what extent was that overdone? >> well, i think actually it's probably a harbinger of more to come. we don't see oil prices recovering for a while. we think it's going to take the bulk of 2016 before oil markets get back into balance. >> but the problem is many of these companies are actually working on their balance sheets. we're also seeing a little bit of mna happening in the sector. is this not being rewarded, michael? >> it is by the companies that are divesting assets. the market wants to see those companies improve their balance sheets so, yes, that is being rew5rded. i'm not sure it's new investors, probably more short covering. the market is heavily shorted in this group right now at the highest it's been in the past five years at about 12% of the overall float. >> michael, oil prices up around a percent today. how much of that do you t

. >> wti. erik: if people see is selling as they did in some cases from your investment vehicle.ey interpret that as capitulation or something different? >> i had it right. we shorted at $98 and then we had it wrong. we believe that we saw the bottom. we did not see the bottom. we went back in and took losses and now we are outweighing that's waiting for niche report again. >> the recovery. that is the view of the executive board member and i spoke to him exclusively at a central bank headquarter and frankfurt. >> you could turn the argument the other way. i think what we communicate is our view of economic conditions in general and where he clearly said that risk would increase. you communicate that and then you get the reaction which is the telling of your assessment of the situation. markets do the reasoning. who leads to? -- who? i would turn the argument the other way. of course, their own analysis about the situation. i think the market behavior is also reading about the mandate of the central bank. the reaction function and the assessment of the situation. i would not say

wti seeing a 3% decline, going to settle under $42. brent under $45. the pressure coming from the strong dollar saying over 100. we did touch it a couple times but now we're proving to break through and hold there. that's negative for the commodity space. while we were all eating turkey, another penny dropped off the average gas price, $2.05. back to you. >> that's what i felt. i thought it was the pumpkin pie. thank you very much, jackie. demonstrators have been marching up chicago's michigan avenue. we go back to reporter adam riess and you were wondering how long this was going to last as they headed towards a mall as well. what's the latest right now, adam? >> reporter: well, they made their way down to water tower. now they're heading back, but the big issue now is this. they're blocking some of the retail stores. this is tiffany. victoria's secret. so they're blocking the front entrances, not allowing shoppers on this black friday here on the magnificent mile to get in. i want to just show you across the street neiman marcus, they're blocking the

wti 43.9. brent down a little bit. 47.06. now oil prices may not recover before 2020.s according to the iea. in it's latest world energy outlook the agency says current trends including the continued growth alternative energy will keep pressure on producers and lead to a price of around $80 per barrel by 2020. but speaking to cnbc earlier today the executive director of the iea said a decline in u.s. shell production would drive a recovery in oil prices. >> we expect the prices will gradually recover around $80 around 2020 and we do not think that $50 is a likely scenario. >> still to come here on worldwide exchange, beating cheating. stay tuned to find out how the world athletic's authority plans to crack down on doping ahead of the 2016 olympics. [sfx: bell] [burke] it's easy to buy insurance and forget about it. but the more you learn about your coverage, the more gaps you may find. [burke] like how you thought you were covered for this... [man] it's a profound statement. [burke] but you're not even covered for this... [man] it's a profound statement. [burke] or how

move higher versus a lot of their most traded peers and when it comes to west texas we can check in on wti dropping below $40 per barrel for the first time since the end of august. so far in the european session we're seeing gains of up above $40 when it comes to west texas crude once again. but louisa, we'll talk more about what's happening in the middle east. >> no, definitely susan, to do that we're joined by a fellow in middle eastern affairs at the american foreign policy counsel. i want to start off with a general question that i'm thinking a lot about at the moment. what is the actual strategy of the west? what is it that the west wants out of the syria crisis? what is it that they're trying to do? is it about unsettling assad and taking him down at all costs even if it means supporting the rebels on the ground? where are we heading and even if we get there what's the end game going to look like reminiscing afghanistan and iraq and libya and the list goes on. >> so the most important strategic consequence of the paris attacks has been that the u.s. and france virtually totally dropp

wti last week was down 8% and this morning we're seeing it rebounding by 0.9%. 41.11 holding steady above the 40 handle. dangerously close to the 30 level last week. once again, this is, in part, the geopolitical risk premium. spot gold also seeing a fair amount of buying up by 0.74%. 1091. let's check in on how the market action in asia folded overnight. sri is in singapore. sri. >> carolyn, as you would expect, there was a broad negative reaction after the atrocities in paris over the weekend. we saw a flight into the relative safety of the japanese yen. that's turned around somewhat with the dollar fervor. the chinese markets were also weaker today but they did turn around. there was some buying off the lows of the day so we recovered. the talk about the nikkei 225. the japanese economy which slipped back into a technical recession in the july to september quarter. so that begs the question, what is the most prudent policy response from tokyo to address this decline in economic activity? does it mean mormon tear ri stimulus? does it mean more fiscal support or a supplementary budget? i

we're down 1.8% on wti. 41.4. brent 44.6. that's up 2.4% itself today. this slight rally, though, carolyn, i suppose not so much related to the geopolitical concerns. >> that was according to the api. we're getting the official government report later on today and i'm looking at a recent note saying that inventory is 20% above it's five year average. so guys, for a long time, the supply-demand balance will be driving the prices. we're going to go for a quick break. >> yeah. still to come on the program, we get you the latest from paris of course. the on going attacks and the operations underway. so which presidential candidates do americans think will keep them safe and protect their country against terrorism in the future? we'll have at a later on in the program. >>> one terrorist remains in the apartment that's been the focus of a police operation that's been underway for the last six hours. two more suspects have been arrested which brings the total to 7. >> meanwhile, authorities say there was no evidence of bombs on the two airfrance klm planes that

wti off by 2%. brent crude losing a little bit less but still off by roughly 1%. changing hands at 4501. he has joined me around the desk. good morning to you. i guess this week is very very telling of what oil prices have been doing all of last year. we did rally because of geopolitical fears and then bullish comment coming from saudi arabia. then we dropped off because the fundamentals are coming back into play. >> it's usual drama just before the opec meeting. people try to take some queues out of it but you're right. fundamentally markets are still unbalanced. demand which has been great in year generally, started some slow down in china and the u.s. i would say. so that's not helping. on the supply side the situation seems to get worse, especially when you look at news from libya, for example. imnating where they're suggesting that they will be started. that just adds to the situation. >> let's talk opec. let's talk saudi arabia. exactly one year ago we saw that pivotal opec meeting when saudi arabia decided to defend market share instead of price. we're seei

wti commodities were lower as well, wti crude we've talked about that with jackie deangelis that's down this week. copper, mr..coulder the most economically sensitive of the metals for the week down 3.5%, down to 216. what went up this week, bob? that would be your friend the vix. >> volatility. >> volatility index is back in that territory, up 41% just this week and that was just the last two or three days. >> that's when you want to start paying attention when it's over 20. this is the week they gave up on department stores. jcpenney had a decent report nobody cared. as we've been talking about the kids are a buying appraisal, they're going to century 21, they're going to h & m, they're going to -- >> someplace else. >> stop buying it at jcpenney or macy's. we've had a lot of damage done to big names this week. i don't know if we can put up for the week some of the big dow movers. when you look at cisco, apple, nike, caterpillar. this isn't dot-com stuff here, these are big stocks with big market capitalization behind them. it's been a generally ugly week. any earnings report generall

wti has lost 4.5% over the last week. 11% over the course of the last month.e news could be accretive for the company but traders are talking about it as consolidation meaning that these oil prices could really be much lower for longer. back to you. >> all right, jackie, thank you very much. >>> time now for "street talk." that is is our daily dive in the key analyst stock calls of the day. stock number one, lending tree. the ticker tree. rbc capital markets beginning coverage with an outperform. they call it one of the leading online marketplaces for consumers and lend irs. lending tree had $17 billion annual loan originations. the target is $150, about 20% upside. >> the stock has been firing on all cylinders when it comes to its quarterly report in the third quarter. a beat and raise. and for 2016 they gave guidance above consensus estimates. that caused the stock to pop at the end of last month. second stock, eog resources. talking about a patch in the takeover bid also in the emp space and raymond james is downgrading it to market perform from outperform.

they were at $37.75 for wti and prices in the low 30s and even in the 20s if you're looking at heavy canadian crude, about $26-27 a barrel right now. >> i'm looking at this, and all i can think while oil is down, you see the refiner stocks down for the reasons you articulated, why isn't what's happening in the middle east and paris affecting these? when you talk about opec and the cartel which tries to set oil prices, syria is not a member of opec. >> in the grand scheme of thing, not a significant producer, the geopolitical tension says what can they draw in? draw in iran, saudi arabia, russia. liz: iraq. >> and butt heads there. but while we talk about a potential geopolitical risk, let's talk about a demand risk. we're all scared to move around the country, whether it's getting on an airplane, whether it's driving around, that has an impact on demand. liz: news that 50% of flights or traffic and travel plans were canceled into the french region. that's probably a soft number because people will calm down and realize that the terrorists can't win and control our lives but perhaps t

brent crude up by 1% and wti crude up at 4211. that said the dollar is weaker today.s helping the commodity prices and certainly those comps coming from saudi arabia yesterday. >> indeed a lot of uncertainty yesterday and disagreements on whether this was syrian or turkish air space. a spokesperson saying it's too early to say if the downed plane would damage russian turk i relation which is sounds like a muted statement. more to come on them from that front there but still no emission in the right of course so maintaining that disagreement. >> they wonder whether it was heard by the pilots. whether was communication. >> the timing of course was of course trying to find a consensus on how to deal with isis. the timing could not be worse. >> now the u.s. state department issued a global travel warning. the authorities said it's likely several groups including islamic state and al qaeda and boko haram will continue to plotter error attacks across multiple regions. tracie potts is there for more. >> good morning, this preholiday travel warning itself isn't unusual but th