wti crude down by a half of a percent. 51.07. stabilizing somewhat after that initial knee jerk reaction. brent crude off by 0.34%. "worldwide exchange" is up next. we'll see you tomorrow. >>> good morning. happening now, wild swings in the oil market as the saudi oil minister tells cnbc that a nine-month production cut could be prolonged if needed. >>> 23 million more people uninsured. that's what latest analysis of the gop's healthcare estimates if the bill becomes law. the detail ahead. >>> and trump at nato. the president is in brussels to meet the organization he once called obsolete. a live report from belgium coming up. it's thursday, may 25, 2017. "worldwide exchange" begins right

wti below $49 a barrel. brent also feeling the pressure.ortant when it comes to oil prices, it is not just the prices itself. it is what it means for inflation. played a big part when it came to price expectations. in the u.s., we saw breakevens plunged together with the price of oil wti. we are seeing the five year breakeven being very near a bear market, plunging about 16% since the march high. key whenlation that is it comes to oil prices. thanks very much for unpacking that. continuous coverage on what is happening. first, we have to get the first word news with paul allen. president trump has lectured nato allies in public, saying they must pay more for security. he said 23 of 28 members are not paying what they should. the comments threatened to widen differences among members. he attacked the organization is obsolete during the campaign. president trump has suffered to most significant setback his travel ban as a federal court slammed the order as quote steep in ms. steeped in animus. and general motors slumped after being accused of

wti. so that spread could be widening for different reasons. on that chart that we just showed the reason why wti broke down, there were china risks, global growth risks. there was also as you said north korea, there was russian risks back then, too. so there is a lot of stuff that's happening now that happened then. >> why are the markets seemingly so complacent about all of this? there are things happening. >> earnings. >> earning were driven. >> that earnings, that top line growth is phenomenal. >> but we rose on the expectation for deep earnings plus the bunch of political stuff. and now we don't have the political stuff, to your point, necessarily. and we're still up here within a percent or whatever of record highs. >> we have right now is a year ago, people were shooting first and asking questions later. people had the dollar going to 110 people were totally wrong in terms of the macro-factors that were going to unhinge the market. you have a place where there was a lot of interesting stuff to buy. transports were not that expensive six

wti 2.42. brent is higher, up 2.3%.ter saudi arabia's and russia ministers coming out trying to curb global supply to get prices higher again. as for the treasury note, around the 2.33 level after big dips in yields last week. especially friday. on the back of very soft inflation levels out of the u.s. soft retail sales as well. combining pushing the yield down to 2.32. as for the u.s. dollar, a slower week for the dollar last week overall. but a mixed picture this morning. stronger against the yen, 1.095. weaker against the euro and the pound. and eking out a gain last week, up by 1.3%. >>> the flow of economic data is light but plenty of earnings from the retailer sector, home depot tomorrow. and target on wednesday, and we'll get more from campbell's soup. as for data, home builder sentiment. and thursday, jobless claims. >>> focus to europe, 22 days to go until the uk heads to the polls for a general election. today, the ftse 100 hit a record all-time high. editor-at-large at brexit central, the former ceo the vote

wti crude below $49 a barrel. 48.97, maybe a mini pop this morning. big slide for the energy shares dragging on the major indices yesterday. >> looking forward to steve in vienna explaining why we slipped 5% yesterday. at this time yesterday we thought we had the details of what opec would announce, then we were down 0.8%. then at 11:00 slipped. >> research indicated that was priced in, and crude had one into a five-month high ahead of that announcement. >> at this time yesterday, we knew of the cut, so a delayed reaction. we'll talk to steve in a second. asia kind of softish this morning. japan down 0.6%. hong kong, shanghai basically flat. some smaller markets like korea doing all right to end the week. it hasn't been particularly positive. also hasn't been positive in europe. up about 2% for the week on the nasdaq. only the ftse 100 is in positive territory to end the week for the uk. holding on to just about a half percent of gains. around a half percent decline for germany and france. just shy of that. negative week and a negative friday for most

wti has gone up the past couple of weeks.e a little bit of a pop, perhaps up to $60, then it will ease back down and we'll be in a trading range based on statistics on demand and supply. if we get this nine-month extension, doesn't this entice the u.s. shale producers to come in and fill the gap? >> absolutely. that's why you will get a cap. you don't go beyond $60. it's not going to 80 in the sense that you will just get excess production straight away from the shale producers when it's massively economic for them to do so. >> the oil price got down to, wti, mid 40s, slightly lower. brent down to 48 quite recently before the most recent spike up again. is there now in effect a draghi-esque put on the market, an opec put on the market where we will get a floor at those levels? could the speculators that you were talking about, if they decide to turn and are disappointed with what opec comes out with, could the speculators push this market aggressively lower, perhaps down to the mid 30s levels? >> when you look at what specula

down more than double wti. natural gas down 3%. now to currencies.et's show you what's happening there. the eurozone is the big mover in the morning after comments from mario draghi suggested he is still in easing mode talking about extending extraordinary monetary policy. we'll get to that. 1.1137, that explains the quarter percentage point move lower. the pound staying in there after getting hit on election volatility into the election the as polls tighten here. the dollar is weaker against the japanese yen. just dropping below that 1.11 figure. on the pound, it's flat, but nearly lost 2% over the course of the week as polls narrow. as we get closer to that june th vote. the uk ten-year gilt has fallen below is 1% since october. last week very much more the case of lots of individual stories as opposed to simply is this another strong dollar or weak dollar? the last two, three months it has been will the dollar strengthen or weaken? now it's focused on individual stories like the euro off the back of the draghi comments or the pound. >> the data mi

wti sticking below $49. wti continuing april's downtrend.e will show you how that is looking when it comes to the next chart here. crude last two and a half percent in april. monday it close below with 200 day moving average for the first time since late march. we are also seeing money managers retreating from been sent. net long positions for both wti and brent. registered the third biggest decline in the past year and the week ending april 25. looking into that equity space, we have yamaha leading gains on the nikkei 225 after forecasting a record profit. a cosmetics maker jumping 4.5% after its earnings outlook. 2.7% after, down earnings missed market expectations. we are checking in on dbs in singapore.we have the struck -- stock rising for a second day after numbers beat estimates, up 1.5%. rishaad: thank you. let's get to the first word news with remy innocencio. reporter: first up, president trump says he would be willing to meet north korean leader kim jong on under the right circumstances. he said it could have been "at time," altho

down 1% for brent and wti.ne potent sham report moving the one potential point moving markets is president trump in his budget asking to sell some of the oil reserves and flooding the market. as for the u.s. dollar, let's show you what's happening there, buying of safe haven yen overnight. still seeing that a bit with weakness in the dollar. 111.17. the euro continues to be strong. 1.1255. the british pound is under pressure it was selling off more in the initial wake of the attack. it has come back to almost the flat line. gold prices, now pretty much unchanged. >>> when we come back, the white house releasing its 2018 budget. we'll head to washington for a look at what's on the chopping block. and we're waiting to hear from british prime minister theresa may. she's expected to speak outside of 10 downing street shortly. stay tuned, "worldwide exchange" will be right back. thanks for loading, sweetie. ...oh, burnt-on gravy? ...gotta rinse that. nope. no way. nada. really? dish issues? throw it all in. new casc

down 1.6% for wti. so a bit of softness as we said. 48.94, wti.or the month as a whole, surprisingly, given the fact that energy is the worst performing sector on the s&p, oil has been liar for the month. not quite with today's declines, but such a high level of volatility is why the sector underperformed. ten-year treasury node down tte 2.2, having started at 2.25. dollar board, already the pound moving south against the dollar. for the most part looking at a flat dollar against the yen and euro. gold prices for you, flat for the most part today. yesterday down about half a percent. down about half a percent for the month as well. >>> moving on, breaking news this morning. a suicide car bomb in afghanistan's capital killed at least 80 pem and inju 0 people e than 300. the explosion rocked a secure location in kabul. it happened at the peak of morning rush hour traffic. windows were shattered in shops, restaurants and other buildings for up to a half mile from the site of the blast. no group claimed responsibility but both the taliban and isis hav

strong again this morning, 4 the.22 for wti.fter those comments from key opec members, like saudi arabia, they want to extend the cuts. brent crude, 52.19. up three quarts over a percent again this morning. gold prices are firmer for the fourth day in a row. that dollar weakness that we mentioned earlier giving a boost to the precious metal up 0.3%. the bank of japan governor said he is sure the boj can withdraw stimulus when the time is right but also added the central bank has room to expand monetary stimulus to achieve the 2% target. the comments could suggest that the boj is in no rush to move in either direction. >>> housing, manufacturing and retail are in focus. april housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. eastern. at can the 15 a.m., we get april enindustrial production. we have home depot, that's before the bell, also look for numbers from tjx, the parent of tj maxx, marshals and home goods. >> can these retailers bridge back the retail trade after disappointing retailer numbers last week. tj maxx has bucked t

wti up 1.3%. 48 bucks for wti. coal and iron ore soft this morning. >>> new this morning, a european court ruling that uber is a transport service and must be licensed. this is a blow to the ridesharing company. while the opinion is not binding, uber faced extreme regulation in the eu. >>> to washington where there's more fallout from president trump's abrupt firing of james comey. nbc's tracie potts is in washington with the very latest. good morning. >> good morning. we're finding out that perhaps it wasn't quite as abrupt as it appeared when comey got the word. he is back in washington. we have not seen him. but we are hearing from him. we are also hearing from a senate panel investigating russian ties, possible ties to the trump campaign. they now want more evidence. >> reporter: the senate intelligence committee is using its subpoena power for the first time since 9/11 to demand documents on russia from fired national security adviser mike flynn. >> i don't have any evidence of collusion or crime. but the fbi

thank you. 5157 for wti this morning. review the latest fed minutes and chances for a june rate hike. betty: just ahead, b.n.p. paribas giving its outlook for the chinese financial system after moody's surprise downgrade took everybody off guard on wednesday. this is bloomberg. ♪ betty: this is "daybreak: asia." i am betty lou here in new york. in 2015, renowned a short seller carson block called out noble group for its finances. in the two years since, the singapore listed commodities trader has seen its stock spiral downwards. bloomberg television spoke with the muddy waters cofounder and cio about his call. >> we formed our thesis in 2014. we just didn't feel that we had done the work to go public with it until 2015, and at that point, to be fair, we were following another activist short seller who had put out a pretty detailed thesis, so we felt we could put out more narrowly focused work. regardless, my feeling on noble was that it really effectively always had a book value of less than zero. >> negative book. ,> yea

about $49 on wti this morning.comes on the back of the day where we were led higher by the nasdaq. another record high. apple up over 2%. they report after the bell today. facebook reports later in the week. tech leading the charge in the futures market, albeit pretty much flat. the dow slightly low every, the nasdaq slightly lower. >> it is time for our must-reads. my pick is in the "washington post." it's titled this law could prevent the next financial crisis. lawmakers want it gone it reads pressure is building on congress to repeal significant portions of president obama's dig sure dodd-frank act. critics are targeting a provision in the law known as orderly liquidation authority which gives the government the power to step in and avoid a system-wise collapse during financial emergencies. the s&p sector up 18% since president trump was elected. some of these rules were put in there for a reason. similar to tax reform, if you change it, there are risks. >> i'm not sure the liquidity provision they say must be k

only around a quarter percent. 45.6 for wti crude.s happened even in light of stronger corporate earnings from the energy sector, whether you look at likes of chevron and exxon, or bp and shell. they've outperformed but oil prices themselves and other hard commodities like iron ore and copper slipping significantly. ten-year treasury note yield has risen to close to 2.4. at about 2.35 today. not a huge move. but worth noting that yields have been going up because on the flip side, which you might not expect, the dollar has been going down. the broader dollar index down about a third of a percent. the big mover, the big drive r s euro strength. 1.096. again, the euro very much pricing in that macron victory. the pound higher. worth noting there have been local election results coming out across the uk, showing strong gains for the conser conservati conservatives, weakness for labour. all of those brexit voters going towards the conservative party. does that point to a strong victory for theresa may in the general election next month? w

what wti crude, brent's 51, but below 50 in wti, let's say.hat are the prospects for getting above that? do we have to -- i mean, sounds like stories over the weekend how north dakota's experienced a boom in production. you know, pipelines connected and things so sounds like the u.s. production industry is okay, but i'm not sure where that leaves everybody else. >> the permian is okay. one thing is it's largely a permian story. a million barrels year on year, permian and eagle, right now, it's a permian story, bigger, faster, stronger, but if you're saudi arabia, priority is vision 2030, you want to make sure that floor is in for 50 going into 2018. so, again, i think it will rally. we're going into summer driving season, but i think, you know, it is slowly grinding into the 60s, barring big geopolitical outage. >> before you go, i mean, we just alluded to and pass it off, it's russia and saudi arabia. what is going on there? what's with that cooperation there? >> oil order. i mean, we saw this in september. the russians and saudis had a joint

the etf or wti? the underlying asset is now more expensive. what gives here? the most difficult of all the asset classes to predict, and trying to predict the ratio between the etf and the underlying is harder than that. thet of things move around oil price, the physical oil price that we don't understand, geopolitics, saudi, and aramco deal or something, plenty of things can move oil but we don't have any clear view on, and it is hard for the market to interpret that. it trades at a discount. that is telling you where most people think oil prices are going, but with the impending saudi's saudi and influence on spock oil prices, i would be shocked to see or prices come down much lower from here. rishaad: nice to talk to you. vanda securities. , question of sanctions president trump's china pick and his strategy for north korea. that and more is on the way. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: this is "bloomberg markets: asia." i am haidi lun in sydney. rishaad: i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. we are talking about north korea and the tensions between washington, d.c.

the wti contract.the brent contract .1 percent up at the moment. this to chart showing the last five days. the latest business flash headlines come up first quarter profit rose by gains in its nuts and spices division and its food staples, increasing 27% to 103 million dollars, overall revenue up 22%, saying opportunist trading volumes in grains seeing olamp in sales, a third of 's business. extending its collapse over concerns it will be able to turn its business around and return to profitability. to 15 year lows following a 48% nosedive last week following a plunge in bonds. noble reported a loss of $130 million. the founder step down and said he can't see a profit anytime soon. rishaad: bhp billiton going back , broken hillbhp proprietary in the old days. a $10 million advertising billiton.ropping the company says it needs to change the way the community thinks about it and that the change has been in the works for 18 months and has nothing to do with elliott management's recent calls for reform. i

now wti is up 1.5%. but this thing that has happened, saudi arabia and russia are making some strong statements here, including a joint statement that they will do whatever it takes to get to their long-term goal of reducing global inventories. meanwhile, they are talking about extending the production cut agreement for nine months instead of six months. that might be what is helping some of the oil price action this morning. i know you mentioned cftc. unwind alle funds bets on an opec driven rally, and that could mean there's extra money around this morning to deploy back into the oil price. it's important to really interpret the oil price movement in that context. matt: does that mean the bears still have some trouble ahead, tracy? it's difficult to say, matt. but i would argue that this doesn't really resolve the fundamental, underlying problem that opec faces. whenever they push up the price of oil, you see u.s. shale producers come back into the market. not setting aside, by the way, all the concern

we do not -- we are not being held hostage with wti.y will try to artificially put the price higher than they would pump. they are going up week by week as you will keep pumping oil. again, the opec is a phony organization anyway. they do not follow the guidelines to begin with. i think opec has no meaning other than a quick pop here and there. vonnie: do we see prices continue to fall, and if that is what is going to happen, why haven't they fallen already? "bloomberg daybreak we stash todd: we saw last thursday, --todd: we saw last thursday, you can see the downside. i think that oil doesn't become $40. until it is around i think we have that coming and there will be rallies here and there between at but as long as the downtrend remains, which is what we have had since the first of opec, and until that changes, you will want to continue to be selling oil because there is no real reason to put out. we have a 200 years supplying the ground to get to, so i think there is no issue. vonnie: what about the dollar because it has been consoli

wti has had a second consecutive neg month in april. and brent declines as weapon.heck on the ten-year yield. as fixed income goes so do stock market. we're up 2.29. up a bit higher from friday's close, up by a point. and the dollar index. third negative week as the dollar index continues to weaken a bit. over 60% and interest rate hike from the federal reserve in june. gold pricing. let's check in on gold. the third positive month. >>> the news out of washington overnight, congressional leaders reaching a massive spending that would fund the government for the next five months. cnbc's eamon javers is live for us. >> good morning, it was a big deal. we don't have all of the particulars what's in the bill. but we do have key points and we'll find out more with congressional aides are in the office this morning. we'll know what's in the deal right now. additional $12 billion in defense spending in there. a permanent fix that would fund coal miner's health care. $1.5 billion for border security. that's less than president trump had wanted and 295 millions for puerto ri

brent crude -- what is up with wti? will it hold? and what is happening with gold?nitially it had gain, now losing some ground. jpmorgan gcc spread index over treasury. tightening a bit at 3%. the south african rand, what we saw from sydney. turkishamerica saying, lira versus the south african rand is rising political risk or this is the currency this weekend, 2.4%. let's check in on the first word headlines from around the world. republicans and democrats have reached a deal that will prevent the u.s. government from going to a halt. they have agreed to $1 trillion measures for all bodies in october. trump downesident payment on boosting the military. the deal would mean the federal government shuts down after friday. the european union will present a united front of her brexit after taking less than a minute to decide its stance in brussels. they are determined to stick together to persuade other nations from considering leaving the block. itpresident reiterated that will not begin until sufficient progress has been made on the uk's with drawls. companies are said

softness dragging wti below $4 a barrel.re back above that level this morning with a nice 1% pop. brent back above 51, up 1.3%. as for the treasury note yields, still stuck below the 230 level. buying of treasuries yesterday on what was weaker auto sales across the board. that was the economic data point people were watching. we'll get more today. services coming in. the adp report on private sector jobs, and the fed statement at 2:00 p.m. eastern. the u.s. dollar is fifrm rmer b light treasuryyields are following lower. t gold prices have cooled off lately, lower on the back of the stronger u.s. dollar. down 0.2%. >>> jeff gundlach is out with a market warning after yesterday's close. gundlach telling clients to get r ready for a summer interest rate correction. >> nobody sees a change in policy today, but will they suggest the first quarter data that is soft is temporary. >> absolutely. i think it's fascinating that stepping back from this, how little focus there is on the fed meeting today relative to corporate earnings w

wti at 51.75. focus on whether the opec m ministers will expend the supply cut. >> a big developing m&a story overnight. constellation brands making an approach to acquire jack daniels owner brown-forman. brown-forman is not interested in selling but informed its board of constellation brand's interest. i was reading some research notes overnight on this one. it's a staples brand. bonnie hertzog says hard to imagine imagine where this deal gets done. first of all, they don't want to sell. constellation is a closely held company by sands. she says the upshot is it's encouraging con tell lastellati willing to go bold. >> either way what is fascinating about the sector, we've seen lots of consolidation both in the drinks market and in terms of foods, snacks. it's kind of necessary for these guys to deliver the growth targets and that we have these attempts to bolt on more acquisitions and lower costs. >> constellation has been a rock star in this space, thanks in part to its big mexican beer unit. whi

so looking at about 3% or so of gains for the week as a whole for wti crude.et's look at the dollar. that's been in the eye of the storm with the political developments. we did see a bounce back yesterday in the dollar, only late in trade. that's a point i bring up in terms of this tepid rebound we saw yesterday. only when the dollar started rebounding that we didn't see equity markets extend gains. at one point yesterday the dollar was markedly weaker. the euro hit a high of 1.11. sterling, 1.35, and the yen, 111.50. the dollar down 1.3% for the week as a whole, over 4% year to date, and giving up all its post election gains. today we're back to the dollar weakness trend, not against the yen but the euro gaining almost a half percent, the pound back above the 1.30 level. >> yen trading at or around six-month highs, given the safe haven buy which we have seen pick up on this u.s. policy uncertainty. >>> look at gold. a similar story there. political drama not only in washington, brazil helping gold for yesterday. we did see gold buying. today down by $2. tradi

wti down 0.3%. brent down 0.1%.prices are higher for the fifth day in a row thanks to the weaker u.s. dollar. always goes the opposite way. a flight to safety across the markets today into the yen and treasuries and gold. all of this having to do with washington. james comey writing an internal memo saying president trump asked him to drop an investigation into former national security adviser michael flynn. john harwood joins us now with the details. john, when will this memo surface? >> very soon, sara. look, we've been building towards this moment ever since president trump fired fbi director comey last week. his explanations later in the week got him in increasing trouble. yesterday afternoon we had the news break, first reported by the "new york times," subsequently confirmed by nbc and other news outlets that james comey kept contemporaneous notes of his interactions with president trump that recorded that president trump in mid-february asked him to end the fbi investigation of michael flynn who had just resi

wti crude has been volatile in this tight range, above $45 a barrel.aybe get some data today that will make some desis v mocisive there. the ten-year note hit a six-week high yesterday, above 2.4%. receding off of that. 2.37. part of the case for equities another leg higher is the treasury yield started to lift. we will see if that stops that trend or not. the dollar has mostly been mixed overnight. a bit of a bid that came into the dollar. the u.s. dollar index is still struggling under that $100 mark. there you see euro just about flat. the yen is slightly stronger there against the dollar. gold, really not doing a whole lot. but getting a slight bid overnight. there you see it at 1,023 an ounce. >>> overnight president trump abruptly firing fbi director james comey. the white house saying late yesterday the president terminated comey for how he handled the investigation into hillary clinton's use of a private e-mail server while she was secretary of state. comey's firing comes as the fbi looks into allegations that trump's presidential campaign had

wti crude, 51.12. down a half percent. minister telling cnbc that a nine-month production cut could be extended if needed. that was baked into the forecast and price at this point. oil has been strong. >> the intraday moves, because we did fall about 0.6%, we got back to flat and now down half a percent. perhaps people would be a little disappointed. but in general oil prices already up 2% week to date. when you consider all of that, they have, as steve sedgwick was saying, telegraphed this well and stuck to it. we expect that nine-month extension to be confirmed later today. >> as for the overnight action in asia. shanghai comp closing up 1.4%. there was some chatter with big gains and state intervention in the markets, but gentera genera strong for emerging markets after signaled patience when it comes to interest rate hikes for emerging markets. the nikkei closing higher by 0.3%. early action in europe is less strong. the german dax has turned around. up 0.1%. the biggest gains in smpain. >> week to date, u.s. markets u

just below $49 wti brent is off by 0.2%. nat gas is positive.s for the dollar, the big forecast of global markets, it is weaker against the yen, but just barely. fractional move there. that's reversed from yesterday where there was a lot of selling of dollar and buying of the safe h haven yen. the dollar is stronger against the euro today. euro made it up to 1.1134. a six-month high against the dollar. the dollar is reversing this morning. could be a better sign for stocks. even though cramer said the weak dollar is such a positive for stocks, certainly multinationals, they've been hoping to see that in earnings, right now the correlation has been strong dollar, strong stocks. whether it's the trump trade, the u.s. growth trade, the fed hiking rates trade, whatever it is, the economy is on firm ground so you buy u.s. assets. >> more to the point, that had been the correlation until about six weeks ago. then the dollar moved south but not equities follow. yesterday was an important day for the bulls to realize, look, maybe this negative move coul

we have seen wti prices collapse around 10.5% this week.has been a bad week for oil and industrial metals, but barclays is saying the panic may be fleeting for investors who hang tight. ahead to theg french presidential election this weekend. the euro taking the spotlight. this is the bloomberg bureau spot index. yesterday's accession rose the most in five months. -- yesterday's session rose the most in five months. we are seeing money move into the yen. you can see the euro index has gone above its 200 day moving average. looking at another 200 day moving average, i am looking at that 10-year u.s. break even rate here. this is the lowest since donald trump won the u.s. election. we are not seeing treasuries trade in japan. we are seeing a weaker dollar against the yen. rateuch of this breakeven is about a loss in conviction in really -- in relation? how much is it commodity prices falling? anna: a new edition of daybreak is available. let's take a look at some of the stories. the cover story, commodities. the oil plunge. trading below $47

wti, $27 per barrel after drillers added downside pressure.ef gamal el-din and i am back in half an hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome back to bloomberg businessweek. coo sheryl sandberg out with a new book about the importance of emotional honesty at home and in the office. we will show you how sean hannity is becoming the top dog at fox news, as well as apple getting into its first tv show. all that, still ahead on "bloomberg businessweek." ♪ oliver: we are back with bloomberg businessweek editor-in-chief megan murphy to talk about more must reads in the magazine. let's start in the tech section because we are talking robots. tell us what you are looking at. megan: we are talking robots and we are talking china. this is another example of where china has lagged in terms of expansion of robots both in its workforce and use by companies, but they are making a massive push to catch up and dominate the robot sector. china actually only has about 50 robots for every 10,000 workers, compared to in the u.s., 176, or up to 300 in some places like

income ofat the very 71% of analysts are bullish on wti.earish sentiment as the red portion of the chart, and that has receded to less than 10%. a week ago, bearish sentiment was 27%, and a month ago at 41%. the neutral trunk as well to where as a-- 19%, month ago it was 25%, so are a lot of change in sentiment driven by technicals and fundamentals where you have opec , saudi arabia and russia and non-opec users discussing the prospect of extending price cuts. scarlet: good news in the price. julia: i only want to talk about oil. strategist believes other commodities may drive the rally from here. this is the relationship between the dollar index and exports. the dollar traditionally hasn't happening affect on grain exports, but if you look at what is going on in the 2016-2017, a strong dollar. our we need as we head into the season is to have a blowout dry weeks in july and we could see prices come dramatically down, particularly if were at a turning point for the dollar and the dollar comes down to that would be supportive, and if the oil

scarlet: which levels would you be looking at for wti versus brent with a top or bottom?y level. that seems to have held last week. of the bottom from november before that. we find that the key line in the spreads risk of credit would be below $40. that hold down has -- whole zone has pretty good support. julia: this is an interesting chart. the one i'm showing you now. it is wti futures and gold. which one is expensive and which one is cheap or in reverse? mike: we love the cheats -- charts. that is a key indication of the paradigm shift happening in the market. that is the price of gold relative to crude oil. it takes about 26-27 barrels of crude oil for one ounce of gold and that is around the peak of 2008. it continues to march higher. gold is getting more expensive, crude is getting cheaper. one reason is advancing technology. advancing technology, bringing on supply, fighting central banks. central banks are helping to support the price of gold. that is a potential paradigm shift that if it continues, it is a new world where crude oil is a significant commodity, but

stabilizing after yesterday's sell up but wti posting a third weekly decline.ore, -- city's and head of global research says it is not just technicals. he spoke earlier on bloomberg daybreak americas. >> it's all technicals. nothing fundamental. nothing has changed in the market. it is expectations i am part. it is technicals in part. we had a record amount of trading for a couple minutes. it was all shorts coming into the market. >> the narrative for the fundamentals is bearish as well. how self fulfilling is this and how much lower can it go? to call never positive a bottom, but i suspect this is a great buying opportunity. the market is fundamentally tightening up. i think through be a shift in financial sentiment and that will help boost the price going forward. we are expecting a big jump in price by the end of the year. market, but iis want to understand the fundamentals part. you say it is technicals, not fundamentals. what about the reports of the increase? and china? there is softness in the numbers. they are tightening in the credit. how are we confid

wti and it is that yellow line.goes, the weaker front prices are and the blue five-years. breakevens and that rolled over at 1.7%. they track each other pretty closely. what is the read through, there? what is the trickle-down? think -- i think we are overemphasizing the importance of oil in the long run. if we continue to gradually heat up our economy, if europe does and china sees higher inflation, i think globalization will pick up. if i have to take the over under on one point 8%, i would be over -- 1.8%, i would be over. we'll get more inflation than that. jonathan: making a call on inflation is one thing, making the call on 10 year should be as easy. two percentage points on a u.s. 10 year. david: you could get there. let's look at the fed tighten. why are they tightening? to apply the brakes to the u.s. economy. there is no point in raising short-term rates if you don't raise long-term rates. they know this. if the 10 year does not respond or drips down, i would expect a even more aggressive rebalancing and i

it's almost 5% fall in wti and brent.r opec came out with confirmation of a nine-month extension to the existing deal. it didn't necessarily disappoint, it's just that markets wanted more. we got a bounce in oil earlier in the month when the deal was bandied about in the press by the saudis and the iranians. yesterday's deal didn't give anything additional which is what markets were hoping for. indeed, it is oil stocks that are dragging european equities lower this morning. something to watch out in the u.s. today, look out for the oil sector. can amazon crack the $1,000 ceiling today. it closed at 993. finally disney is breathing a sigh of relief as ceo bob said the company was not hiked. this followed ransom demands in the middle of the months which threatened to release a movie if they didn't pay a bitcoin ransom. and they didn't. >> no spoilers for "pirates of the caribbean" in that latest installment. >>> up next, the box office is heating up at the holiday weekend. one contestant's priceless reaction to his record b

here i have wti nearing a 55 day moving average below $50 per barrel.at be a resistance level? brent.ust below $52 on somer-yen briefly trimmed losses after the national security adviser mcmaster refuted the report that donald trump revealed classified information to russia. you can see the dip in dollar-yen. but that monday new york low, which i have marked in red, has not been breached yet. but there are other things playing into it as well, 10 year yield down after it was rising, the blue dollar index down for a fifth day heading for its longest losing streak since march 22. some of that is also down to the weaker data we have had out of the u.s. and with crude rallying, the stronger commodity currencies are impacting the dollar index, too. and i want to talk about volatility. 10 atx is back above lows not seen in a decade, investors beginning to protect against an end to the market calm. futures, the most traded vix-linked security. 17% more calls outstanding. manus: we will keep an eye on those ratios. nejra, thank you. is new edition of "daybreak"

wti has slipped below $45 a barrel for the first time since opec agreed to cut output. crude has plunged more than 8% this week amid 11 straight weeks of expansion in u.s. production. in the u.k., early results in local council elections suggest theresa may's conservative party is on course for a sweeping victory. according to the bbc, across the 23 english and welsh counties that had fully declare results, the tories had a net gain of 150 seat in labour had lost 119. lib dems lost 29 seats while ukip failed to win any seats. dayal news 204i was a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. francine? francine: thank you so much. we are here live from paris, two days until the french presidential vote for the second round. this is when the french will choose their next president. it has been telegraphed. marine le pen versus emmanuel macron. the latest polls, yesterday night, late in the evening and macron isgesting 61%, 62% of votes on sunday. given the gap between macron and le pen at the moment, almost impossible for marine le pen to

crude wti is now trading and brent isrrel, gaining as well.is a three-month look, so it does not show you today's gains or last weeks, but you can see the uptrend. opec and its allies are poised to extend production cuts for another nine months after last year's agreement failed to clear orlobal supply glut deliver a price recovery. the key will be to ensure all producers is to that new deal. ,> it is very important for all opec and non-opec, to participate in this agreement, to fully comply. it is very important, and now, we have a very good compliance. i strongly support the proposal. it is being put by non-opec moment verse -- non-opec members. supporting the market stabilization from of the beginning. i do not see a problem to do what it takes to create the market stability. matt: let us check in right now on the equity markets. just about 15 minutes into the trading session here in europe. we have gains across the board. the ftse, kind of the weakest leak as the pound gains against the dollar. -- weakest link as the pound gains against th

wti holding right now above the $50 per barrel mark. looking at 50.90 if you could buy it by the barrel. >> let's turn to the markets. the s&p 500 closed at a new record. joining us is steve parker, and doug cotey. gentlemen g to see both of you. it looks like the markets have decidedly turned positive since the big drop last week. the s&p 500 at a new high. what's happening? >> on the economic front things look very good. not only the u.s. and emerging markets are marching forward, but surprisingly europe is marching forward. that's big. even japan is. that's showing up in accelerating profits, broadening manufacturing. consumers. >> not just the markets moving up, but the any oveconomy overa. >> the fundamentals are important, and that's why from an investment standpoint you want to be globally diversified. you are seeing it in the markets. emerging markets are more than doubled. international, europe than the s&p 500. this is a time where domestic is fine, but you want to broaden out into the international emerging markets. their tim

certainly part of what is going on has to do with oil prices as we see a rally in energy stocks and wti is off as saudi arabia and russia say they favor prolonging the oil production cuts by global for the first quarter of next year. present their position and their plan to other countries at the opec meeting this month in the nfl stop crude oil prices are getting better 3% game we saw last week mid week. that is helping the big oil producers here in the u.s. interesting action we're seeing an money managers with regard to crude. take a look. the price of oil in white. i want to draw your attention to the far end of the screen. we're seeing those longs being cut even as oil prices are now bouncing. folksld potentially see -- the other big story we are watching today having an effect on markets is the big attack affecting computer systems around the globe. we are seeing as one might expect, some of the various cybersecurity firms bouncing today. analysts are saying these companies are the main beneficiaries of higher spending that is triggered by the newest forms of various cyberattacks.

if they don't extend, you're looking at $40 in wti and at low 40's on brent, so they will extend and the question is world amanda. mark: talk to me about copper the selloff in both continues, a link to china as well, demand. how low can these commodities go? takingcopper market is it on the chen recently, a market that was just over 2.6 zero and now low two-40's. a tightening monetary policy stage and quietly agreeing to take steel exports and cut them down. they are already cutting what they call shadow refiners, their smelters. as that continues to go on and there are economy is not producing at 7% growth, but 6.5% growth, we will keep the commodities complex under pressure. they are the elephant in the room, and that elephant is not asing in as much iron ore they took in the first quarter. they took a lot in the first quarter, but for a year on year basis, we are seeing declines, affecting australia, one of the reasons the aussie dollar has been under pressure, and will continue to see that, so no, i would not look for anything in the bull market for rebar or copper. you need to g

and the reference line, do wti price in yellow.lso looking at the gadfly columnist, the big question in the oil market is, whether not opec's will extend or not. baked in andmuch what the market is expecting. and also going to raise the game, will they take more oil, can they do that? tarek fadlallah: it's probable they will agree to extend the cuts. i think over the midterm, that will have an effect. while you see the account going up and the output increasing. if opec maintains this latest cut, it is very difficult for the show producers to bridget the gap. i would expect industries to be affected in the midterm. yousef: what it means for saudi just embarked on this reform process and a couple of weeks ago, they do a u-turn restore bonuses and say well for made more progress we expect we can afford to. oil, is it move in turning everything on its head again? tarek fadlallah not yet. $46.ntly, if it stays at these levels, concerns will be raised about the prospects for austerity measures across of the region. for now, this a short

wti, this bounce in oil could be losing momentum, but the opec meeting is under two weeks.eople are focusing on the production that they will cut, namely in the u.s. and outside when it comes to iron ore prices that are now down .7%. let's get the news now with has linda. laid the china has foundations for a new east-west trade route, calling it the project of the century. xi jinping told business figures that the initiative is inspired by the ancient silk road that originally linked china to europe. he repeated his report for globalization, saying it as a piece -- a road for peace. the belt and road initiative is rooted in the ancient silk road. it focuses on asia, europe, and africa. all countries can be part of this initiative. the pursuit is based on extensive consultation, and benefits will be shared by all. reporter: china's biggest way as an data oil and gas producers say nine deals worth $20 billion during the forum. they told bloomberg they have more than 50 joint ventures underway in 90 countries. he told us they are setting their sights on u.s. energy and looks b

wti up by 2.5%.rent crude 52.06 up by 2.4%. >>> still coming up on the show, putin sits down at the piano in beijing but is he playing to xi jinping's tune. we'll get more after the break. [vo] when it comes to investing, looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock. >>> north korea has launched what it calls a new type of ballistic missile. the missile through around 430 miles before crashing into the sea of japan about 60 miles from russia's region. the usa ambassador nikki haley warning that they tighten on pyongyang. meantime, xi jinping with leaders at a summit in beijing, the chinese president said it was necessary to reject protectism. speaking with the chairman of the firm tel

numbers drilling reports as well. 2017-2018, and 2019 consensus forecast as well as the number for wti is all leading to $50 a barrel. the question is whether we can put higher -- put higher. we are seeing risk appetites and lifting, broader commodities as well. we are seeing a nice recovery for the lack of iron ore. most of these base metals are doing nicely in the day, but we are looking at the longevity of rally.l singapore, taiwan, and malaysia are coming online. we will see nice gains today. let's go to sophie for a look at how things are tracking. sophie: oil prices are continuing to plot on that path. new york crude at $49 a barrel. looks like the convergence could be happening. hedge fund managers perhaps being caught unaware. as you noted, we have the likes of iron ore and cover on the rise. that is really giving a boost to commodities players in the region. asian stocks largely on the up following the gain on wall street that pushed he s&p 500 above 2400 for the very first time.we had the nikkei 225 gaining half a percent , going closer to the 20,000 level. look at the singap

mark: coming up, the bti crude try to recover -- wti crude try to be cover.n november.o cut this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ mark: live from london, i'm mark barton. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." week.llapsing 8% this bloomberg, ed moores explains oil's nomadic drop. expectations is technical in some parts. in the market got bearish. we had a record amount of open interest. it was all shorts coming into the market. evans.oining us is tim all technicals, tim? : oil technicals are playing a really, but i this agreement those comments. oil fundamentals play a rolling as well. vonnie: in what sense? tim: it is simple mathematics. if you look at the lot -- a lot to findrojections made balance over time, those projections have been proven to be wrong. or demandk at growth projections, that was assuming we would continue to see strong demand out of the u.s., but especially continued strong demand out of china. obviously, chinese numbers have been slow as of late. q1 significantly below market expectations. those demand numbers are somet

there is risk on in europe, australian dollar, currencies are lower after the agreement because of oil, wti, 2.2% brent is three dollars higher. we look at the securities through the show. let's go to abigail doolittle. session lows,s in down 2%, the worst day in three weeks. this after opec did extend cuts for nine months. you can see cells that are priced in with oil, mainly between $45 and $55. one segmentuding -- in the energy complex getting hit, thriller. we have them down 3%. the energy sector is getting hits. the only sector in the s&p 500. he said the sector is washed out, expecting a rebound in the months ahead. let's see if that happens. it now we could explain why oil is rebounding. this is 7831. in blue we have opec daily production the last two years, white is u.s. a drilling activity. last summer after the price of oil started to recover, the drillers came on hard, adding rigs. then the price cut last year, oil production from opec coming down so the supply cuts are being offset by what is happening in the u.s. with production, keeping oil range bound and explaining why energ

the malaysian ringgit up .2 percent on the back of that rally in crude wti over $51 per barrel.ritish pound coming back, back to the closing line where it was 1.30. there was a sell down on news of the manchester attack, but more stability coming through, off by less than point 1% against the dollar. in singapore has been suspended after falling quite significantly. it did fall by 32%, a 36 minute plunge after s&p flagged risks that the embattled commodity trader could default over death in the next year. rio tinto coming through with plans to buy back as much as $2.5 billion of its bonds as part of a plan to reduce debt. moody's says it's continued debt reduction is credit positive, although we are seeing the share lower there. sony stronger them up by .5% ahead of that lunch break in tokyo, saying the level of moviey to improve its miss business has increased. it is doing well in terms of games and consumer electronics, but lacking in the film business. so mood in asia is one of much bad news and taking it in stride. haidi: surprising resilience there. thank you for that. indi