blue is brent and white is wti.ing to get in serious trouble -- i am going to get in serious trouble if i don't go with maker. my coanchor. positioned in are the short-term volatility trades is absolutely fascinating. jessica, you will win today. vonnie: no doubt, guy. [laughter] gtv is where you can find all those charts. some really fantastic work that goes into some of these charts. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ been speaking with sunk under chair and about in. -- has huge faith in brazil anna bolton. she has huge faith in brazil. >> we had a conversation a few years about brazil. we delivered 14% while in recession. i am very proud of my team. reach 20% areill we. we have an election coming up. we need to remember that the election on sunday, is not the end of the beginning for rebuild. i see it as a normalization of politics. i have huge faith in the country that i have known for 40 years really well. i'm going for three reasons. one, institutions are working. second, you have a strong private sector. three, you

. >> despite that, wti did well as did brent. what's driven it in the last couple of months and can that continue for the rest of this year >> generally speaking demand has been good for oil and the demand is huge. it's $100 million barrel a day market ultimately what'salso been driving things which is less

wti trades. brent goes lower. cable pretty much unchanged. let's take a look at futures.see european equities close higher .5%. it looks like another down day. dax and cac 40 futures down more than .8%. he was futures pointing lower, as well. the bears are out again. the equity market open is underway. let's see how these markets open up. follow asia into the red. ftse getting going, getting momentum to the downside. opening up flat but down it goes, approaching lower by .2%. that selloff getting momentum in the ftse 100. let's wait to see how the dax and cac 40 open. lower .5%.n, open already negative straight out of the gate. really what seems to have caught the market not offguard, necessarily, but alphabet and amazon reporting after hours, tech stocks leading the selloff in the asia session. so many reasons we could put forward for the general equity selloff we've seen. in terms of global market cap for equities, it's a bigger drop in terms of market cap. lower .5%.d what do you see in the industry groups on these stoxx 600? on the bloomberg europe 500 imap? matt: i t

when the storage tanks get full, wti will fall.appens because there not enough capacity sometimes to get that oil to the gulf coast. when you're relying on the brent-linked crudes, and most of the middle east prices based on brent, those crudes will be more scarce in the market and prices will go up. as we see that shortage in the middle east, the market could get more concerned about spare capacity, which we saw mr. novk talk about. we will watch that later on in the year. nejra: thank you. we wanted your thoughts on our whenquestion of the day -- does a rising oil price start to hit developed nation equities? of european equity strategy at jpmorgan asset management is still with us. you have heard the question. some comments are saying european equities could be most vulnerable out of developed markets. what's your reaction? stephen: commodity prices are inversely correlated with the dollar. that has happened with industrial metals. oil price looks like a bit of a standout. the oil price in euros, if we think about that, the rise

looking at prices for wti, 67 around, brent 77. want to know who is still betting on $100 oil for the new year? manus: who is nervous and these markets?safe to say everyone is nervous, particularly our bloomberg reporter niraj shah and annmarie hordern in london. it is a busy couple of days to the world's central banks. what is happening at the central bank level? this morning, sweden's riksbank is expected to leave rates at -.5%. later in the day, economists forecast canada will hike central rates to 1.75%. nejra: no one wants to be left behind the fed. tomorrow is the return of the ecb with policy likely to confirm asset purchases will end this year, but with record low rates continuing through to next summer. keep an eye on turkey. rates to stayect on hold. that is also tomorrow. mliv: ok, let's bring our question to our viewers and our guest host. what would it take from mario draghi for the euro to rally? stephen wanted to shorten the euro. she is still with us. he told all the clients to bail out into the -- into cash. to hin

or into the late 80's on brent and early 80's for wti, quite easily.upply crunch is high and demand is still strong. going into the winter months, seasonally, the driving season kicks off. and fuel use will go up across the country. matt: what is your view on copper? there has been so much concern about the chinese economy, especially domestically, and get copper is on the run. >> it is certainly correct this year. we are close to 20% off. it has rallied a bit. i think copper is an interesting metal. we think there is a chance for a continued recovery, but it does depend on china stabilizing its economy. we have seen a second triple arc up from china in these past few days. i think that could just stave off further declines. the type of growth clearly matters. but belt and road will also soak up an awful lot. i think the future for copper is pretty good. i think we could get to a balanced supply and demand pattern by the middle of next year. anna: long on glencore, why that way? >> partly because it is cheap. it corrected a viciously when copper went d

energy stocks were down, crude and wti falling more than 4% on the tuesday session, now down .4%.he nasdaq is near correction territory, around 8% below the august high. what was interesting about today's session is that it started really know and then stocks were trying to rally throughout the session and pushing higher. what will happen to that momentum going into asia, that will be a key question. sophie: whether we see the momentum play out remains to be seen as we look for a mixed start for asia with the benchmark flirting with a bear market. on tuesday we did see a decline in japan, a wipeout of market value of a half true in dollars of japanese shares year to date and it has become volatile for chinese shares, prompting policymakers in beijing to val --ck rollout of state stabilization measures. earnings will be key in the weeks to come. we've had disappointing guidance from big names like caterpillar to texas instruments. machinery makers and ship makers are among the names as well. when it comes to earning's this week we have about 200 japanese companies due to report. to

think we are going to be trading around a very volatile range of high 60's to low 70's, at least for wti. we think the risk of a big upside pop in oil prices is a lot greater than the risk of prices rolling over. those two things would be driven by the fact that spare capacity is extremely low, and also driven by the fact that you get one outage -- even though we have had inventory built over the last couple of weeks, they are still really low in absolute terms, relative to where they have been over the past five years. scarlet: you have the possibility of saudi arabia weaponizing oil as well. ourt at putnam investments in boston, thank you so much. that does it for the closing bell and for me. from "what did you miss" new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ caroline: live from bloomberg world headquarters, i am caroline hyde. shares coming off their lows. we close in the red. joe: the question is, what did you miss? caroline: crowning a new emerging-market champion. wild swings amid u.s. stocks. oil in the geopolitical crosshairs. as saudi arabia pledged to produce as much as it can. and hot off

what are the implications that there's a gap between wti and brent?that cap opening up on occasion. the united states is in a sound position because of the domestic shale industry. if prices ease off, we can see that production level drop off significantly. typically u.s. shale producers have a higher net cost production than the opec producers. in the past it has been as high as $80 a barrel plus. they are generating a reasonable margin now. if oil prices drop, margins can be cramped. some of the production can be sidelined once again. haidi: whether it is brent or wti, we are seeing oil prices on an uptrend. this chart on the bloomberg showing the s&p 500 energy sector is still underperforming. why are investors not climbing on energy names? >> it is a really good question. we are seeing the same thing in the australian market. two of our biggest energy companies had high exposure to both oil and liquefied natural gas. they've come out with very positive -- excuse me -- announcements over recent weeks. saw those stocks down. we had a strong share pr

and the renegotiation of nafta, all these factors make people think demand trends will be strong wti spread to brent is widening. buyer beware, in the last month wti is up more than 7%, brent up 9% sometimes buy the rumor sell the fact can hit like a ton of bricks when it comes to the oil trade, that said maybe the market is blabsialancing out and there's some evidence that china is not importing as much u.s. crude because of the tariffs. what do they do if they're not importing u.s. crude, they are taking brent >> they will get it elsewhere or take brent the main threat is that they'll buy the iranian crude and buy it for less >> the sanctions go into effect november 1st >> yes >> thank you very much >>> joining us now is steve parker from jpmorgan private bank what is thematic -- is there a non-thematic >> that's a great question i don't have a counterpart >> you don't have anyone and know where blackstein. we've had a lot of issues. rosenstein >> rosenstein it is. feinstein. >> not related >> you're not related. but in your case, it's blackstein >> did i say "stine? >> no, as part

still standing in the sidewalk of speer a wti for casual carpool. >> moving but have feeling not going to win the race. >> in time it took lyanne just to get on the bay bridge, had a winner. don't want to toot my own b.a.r.t. horn but justin in 54 minutes to berkeley, he made it. number one. other three commuters are in thick of it right now. >> we're now making great progress, about five minutes away if you will. >> thomas is still stuck in san francisco. >> not a single car came to pick up berkeley crew. >> but he made a friend. >> we made it. i came in second. let me tell you. got here at 6:23. who got here? >> 5:45. >> getting on bay bridge at 5:54. how long did it take you? just got here. i beat you. >> got here about 6:27. >> make friends on the bus? >> no, everybody was quiet but nice. >> public transportation is way to go definitely. b.a.r.t. >> we learned a little bit. >> we did. >>> foster youth, hits close to home. >>> did you miss out on the mega millions jackpot, another up for grabs tonight. >>> i'm sandhya patel, you'll feel like you hit the jackpot in terms of weather b

as the ftse 100 in the uk outside of stocks here is a global look at commodities and currencies for wtirude, $72.10 the euro versus the u.s. dollar. dollar strength there. 1.1560 is that trade comex gold flat. and bitcoin spot trade, 6,441.96 let's talk more about wall street's big move higher joining me is mark avalone mark, it sure seems like this was a very v-shaped bottom should we believe the bounce that we saw for the mangjor markets yesterday? >> it's a continuation of the trend. little jitters like last week and sharp downturns and mini corrections are normal in bull markets. people still remember the ghosts of 2008. they think is this it? is this the big one? all they need to do is continue to look at the earnings reports. we saw a lot of earnings reports yesterday that were terrific those won't stop so i think the bull market is continuing sure it's long in the tooth, that does cause some concern but the underpinnings for the sound economy and strong earnings are here. we don't see that changing >> so, mark, as we talk about these strong earnings, we are expecting 20% plus ear

year yield at 3.2%, and emerging markets is the lowest since may of last year, and take a look at what wtidoing, you would think though it would be falling with hurricane michael with crude supply being a threat -- being threatened, but there's more of a fuel demand. this is bloomberg. ♪ i am mark crumpton was first word news, the national says michael is making landfall near mexico beach, florida, as a category four hurricane, forcing a deadly storm surge and whipping the coast with 155 mile-per-hour wind. the fema administrator says the storm is a hurricane of the worst kind. residents to heed evacuation orders, saying people who stick around and experience storm surge do not usually live to tell about it. president trump's former top political adviser is framing the month congressional midterms as a referendum on the president and he things republicans can keep their majority in the house. told us atn bloomberg invest london, that there is a lot at stake. >> if he loses the house of representatives, he will be impeached, they will bring impeachment hearings immediately. it's imperative

wti trading above $74 on these concerns. saying yesterday entering a red energy market. today i will be speaking to -- speaking about demand concerns in the oil market. absolutely. thank you very much. there is a link between commodities and the treasury market. we take you to our mliv question of the day. that is the market live blog. will the 10 year treasury yield and the year above or below 3.25%? a simple one to ask. let us know your thoughts. hit the ask the guest the question button. that sends a direct message to the steam -- the team that put this program together. u.s. president donald trump hazard. his criticism that the federal reserve is moving too fast with interest rate increases. he also dismissed concerns about , his criticism that central bankers have disregarded as they push ahead with higher borrowing causes -- costs. that is not a view shared by robert kaplan. donald trump has said he is considering goldman sachs group deana powell to replace his ambassador to the u.n.. he is considering five people for the job including powell. the president did not

we are seeing weakness in crude and also hedge funds have been getting their bets and wti.elow $68 per barrel, manus. manus: the s&p 500 -- morgan stanley says the bar is high.when more wash had to come. $8 trillion has gone from global equity. yields on u.s. treasuries made it down to three points or 6%. where will we go -- 3.06%. where will we go? euro-dollar. does the market really care about angela merkel getting the slapping in her elections and the fact that politically it all looks little bit fragile? euro-dollar completely flat as a pancake. no impact. let's get your business flash with debra mao. good morning. debra: good day, manus. ibm is to buy red hat for more than $33 billion in what will be its biggest ever acquisition. the deal confirms an earlier bloomberg report and is worth $190 per share, a 62% premium friday at revenue is expected to top $3 billion this year and the ceo says the purchase is a game changer for the cloud. we will be speaking to the chairman and ceo. do not miss that interview at 11:30 a.m. u.k. time. will manufacturer abb spend $150 milli

it is discounted with the brent and wti widened this week.he futures spread blew out to the most in five years. the issues, pipeline bottlenecks and a slow pickup of transporting crude by rail. it's continuing to weigh on the price. let's dig deeper into oil at a four-year high. global energy bosses assembled in a moscow this week. vladimir putin had a clear message to president trump. he said that he is to blame for high oil prices. this price of oil is largely the result of the current u.s. administration. these expectationses of sanctions against iran, the political problems in venezuela. donald, if you want to find the culprit for the rise in price, you need to look in the mirror. bloomberg's emery is in moscow and covered the event. she joins us now. at the same time the state deporment wants opec to pump an extra 1.4 million barrels a day. how did that go? >> they asked that last night, urging opec to reach in and go to full capacity there. asked the saudi oil minister about that, and he said we have already been pumping 10.7 barrels a

i'm not buying this. >> brian, wti right now $70 and change oil down around 9% from 2018 highs.hat key levels should we be watching in this particular trade? >> well, you talk about the inventory build and russia never cutting back, the saudis basically increasing production here that created a vacuum from 76 1/2 down to 73. once we broke 73 we entered a bearish market in oil right now trading down to 70 now 70 is a nice pivot target. i'm looking for it to maybe trade back up to 71 before falling back off again certainly some resistance up at that level if you look at the technical levels to get through 71.25. we need to get back above there before the bull market is back on >> thanks very much, guys. futures now is back with much more on that oil and energy trade tomorrow, 1:00 p.m. eastern time exclusively on futures now. i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis par

that puts pressure on prices, especially for wti >> right and we're in maintenance season. a soft path in terms of season alt that is part of the reason why we're getting the bills. we get bills this time of year because of maintenance with refineries the question is what happens sort of end of november when we're coming out of minute tennance season a -- maintenance season >> what is the most important hot spot that you're watching right now? is it the u.s. inventory picture? is it iran saudi arabia what is happening in africa? what exactly is the thing we should be paying attention to? >> i worry about the stories that we're watching, the unstable suppliers so if you have venezuela continue to decline, a million barrels barrels off the market, you can't afford to lose another major producer so continue to watch libya as they go into elections the production has come back but they're very volatile. nigeria, they have elections in february another country where production swings wildly, they can swing by 800,000 barrels. the two countries can play a big role in terms of whe

in the summer we had a nice little rally at wti in the u.s.d numbers and then wti rolled over. we are starting to see oil strength. day, supplyf the levels and demand levels are roughly matched. from an energy perspective in america, there is more stockpicking. in canada, you want to be long in the energy sector because from a management perspective, they manage companies much proven otherwise, until we break out at 85. canadian oil companies and energy companies have proven that they can manage their companies better. dr. ford: interesting that you have -- caroline: interesting that you have this going on today. what about the trade deals that you see? how much of this is a relief rally? >> my canadian brothers and theers know that i call average canadian industry the moral equivalent of eeyore from winnie the pooh. they are always negative. they know how i feel about that. it creates opportunities. it is the most emotional investor ever experienced. of will see the majority companies in canada where the revenues come from inside canada and a

we saw strength in wti and brent in yesterday's session. 0.4%.now, wti down brent holding above $80 arel, $80.57, but down 0.3%. a lot for the markets to digest. we have been talking about trade wars. more recently, rising interest-rate risks. we know what happened with the equity markets last week. put geopolitical risk into the mix, the prospect of $100 oil, and that adds another new angle for markets. nonetheless, we see a little more risk-on in today's session then we saw yesterday. the yen was doing really well last week, and we see it weaker against the dollar today. matt: absolutely. safe haven assets are not bid today, the yen or 10-year treasuries. interesting to point out the drop in crude. we saw brent crude drop half an hour ago, now under $81 at $80 and $.58 per barrel. of course very closely connected to this color. the tadawul -- to this story. we see the tadawul down 4%, which is interesting. is see pompeo there, who going to speak to the king, who denies any knowledge of what happened to khashoggi, but now reports from cnn that it was maybe an interrogation no gone ba

wti.- you got they've decided to go with wti rather than a brent contract.ou've broken the $70 level. inventories are expanding at the fastest pace since 2017. breaking news aplenty. take it away. nejra: let's take a look at these numbers from swedbank, a billion.f $24 they beat estimates of 23.8%. third-quarter net income, 5.3 5 krona. swedish third-quarter net interest income, 6.3 3 billion swedish krona. the estimate was 6.38 swedish kroaona. costs in line with expectations. swedbank talking about continued lending growth as well. it has zero tolerance for any type of criminal activity. a lot of numbers coming through here from swedbank. you have numbers from gaam, manus. aam has been under pressure since the departure of the ceo. majority of the movement, one of the large pieces of that movement has been from the arbf fund, contributing to it 10.8 billion decrease. this is the interim management statement. gam says the measures are being implemented to support profitability. of course everything is on the gam. for a or bf,e the acronym absolute or return

it is discounted with the brent and wti widened this week.ct, november futures spread blue out to the most in almost five years. the issues, highflying bottlenecks -- pipeline bottlenecks and a slow pickup of transporting crude by rail. it's continuing to weigh on the price. let's dig deeper into oil at a four-year high. global energy bosses assembled in moscow this week. vladimir putin had a clear message to president trump. he said that he is to blame for high oil prices. the price of oil is largely the result of the current u.s. administration. expectations of sanctions against iran and problems with venezuela. donald, if you want to find the culprit for the rising price, you need to look in the mirror. our correspondent cover the event and joins us now. anne marie, at the same time, state department wants opec to pump an additional 1.4 million barrels a day. how does that go over? >> that's right. last night, they urged opec to reach in and go with full capacity. i asked the saudi oil minister about this today and he said, we are already

interesting to note that we're finishing lower on the session, but wti moves up 7.5% in a month.. it's not surprising you may every once in a while take a little bit of a pause. session lows today was $74.93, so wti is straddling the $75 mark, guys. >> all right, jackie thank you very much. >>> let's continue our oil-related discussion should investors expect price to keep rising and who is poised to benefit the most michael kelly is seaport global securities good to see you, at a humane hour, by the way. >> appreciate that, brian. >> absolutely. happy afternoon. listen, here's the knock on the permian basin. we've talked about it before and bethany has a new sort of mini book on this, is that the permian basin is sort of built on debt and that, yes, stock prices may go up, but there's a real fear that the calumet dry up along with the wells. is there simply too much debt for these oil companies to really make a lot of money for investors going forward? >> brian, i just don't buy that. i mean, i love bethany's work, but i think the main thing that she is missing is -- well, two t

let's take a quick check of wti, trading under $71 per barrel. it is down 2.3%.rth week of stockpiles. >> here is kelly. >> president trump is -- the president will withdraw the u.s. from an international treaty that gives chinese companies discounted shipping rates for packages sent to the u.s.. special counsel robert mueller is getting ready to handle findings on key aspect of his rush investigation. president trump for obstructed justice. president trump warning central american companies to turn back migrants back to the u.s. they travel through their borders on the way to entering the u.s. illegally. a caravan with as many as 2000 hondurans enter guatemala this week. british primates or treason may has been through a crucial european battle over brexit. negotiatorsave deadlock. she was told her latest brexit reporters were parliament. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tick tock on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. mike pompeo has been speaking

like people are taking off their long positions on wti. why is that?eeing a lot of money called buying going on. there seems to be some demand for the side optionality. brent is just easier to get to and i think that's part of the reason. capacity constraints in the united states are entering into that spread. vonnie: we have seen the u.s. dollar bounce around. what are traitors saying about the dollars direction given what has happened to the euro and the british pound? slippedheme has kind of the last week or two. some of the ideas that were in the marketplace are now starting to wash out. concerns about the euro have put a bid underneath the dollar. vonnie: we still seem to be in that range. do you see anything in the jobs report pushing us out of the range on the 10 year? >> sure. fed chairman powell will be speaking in boston today. we will see some news later out this week when you look at the unemployment report. we are seeing a little bit of a back off primarily due to some of the global unrest we are currently dealing with in the market place.

we are seeing energy down as we see wti trading around $70 a barrel.loomberg. ♪ ♪ leslie:, bloomberg reported that china had hacked into u.s. companies like amazon and apple. i asked democrat mark warner, from virginia about it. >> i been pressing the technology community really hard, what do we know? is the story accurate? the company that were particularly mentioned, are they pushing back very very hard. so i think there is a real question here. but -- >> hear me out. spotlights need to be put on it, absolutely, but there needs to be some level of responsibility here. i've great respect for the organization, but there ought to be a protocol. when we are talking about something that can have as much national security ramifications, and i believe that china is a real threat, that you are motherboardsips on going into cloud services and a host of other entities -- there needs to be some protocol earlier on in the discussion to make sure that the government is ist so that if this threat out there, it should not only be a race to see who can break the sto

that certainly is helping boost of the likes of wti around $72 a barrel.r futures and gold heading lower. gold seeing the risk on trade night getting the safety haven status today. terminal chart to see where we are with some of these base metals. we have seen a rebound since august after reaching that one-year low when it comes to some of these base metals. we are still left the peaks we saw a earlier this year. gold in particular has been a little more upbeat when it comes to metals, especially when it comes to copper. they say growth is set still -- set to slow down in 2019. but demand in the meantime is still at a healthy clip. among most commodities, we see some backwardation. let's look at some of these stocks today, some of these miners on the move, bhp and particular. mining stocks heading closer across the board. .5%.into down about bhp was the big one today, announcing some of their production outlooks. they cut their forecast for copper production for the year by about 3%. furthermore adding pressure here on some of these concerns oversupply. we

brent and wti softening a bit. it would admit to headaches for currencies like the ruby.t's get you the first word news with jenna dagenhart. jenna: reports from washington say the fbi has not interviewed supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh or the woman accusing him of sexual assault. sources tell us the white house has not given the bureau clear authority to speak to them, saying their testimonies are sufficient. it is not clear if they're the iowans to seek rulebook -- approval to interview kavanaugh and christine blasey ford. backing away from the goal of north korea ending its nuclear weapons program during president trump's first term. he is preparing for a visit to be on you next week, by saying 2021 is not his target. that echoes the president, that he doesn't want to get into a time game with the issue. mike pompeo mentioned 2021 in a statement released two weeks ago. near four-yearo high after the dwindling presence in global markets overshadowed a steep gain in u.s. oil stockpiles. inventories in the world's largest economies increase have five times the pace

wti. on a barrel of we are losing ground.he market taken into account what might happen with saudi arabia? larry: when you consider last week a new low point in relations and oil drops and we have three weeks in a row of stocks rising, i think people are spooked by the prospect of demand. that is something i've been talking about for a long time, considering we had a $12 rally between august and september on things that did not come to fruition. we think it is a huge selloff but i think it is a bounce back to reality again considering demand growth is going to be strengthened. the strength of the dollar with emerging-market currencies -- oil is well over $100 a barrel and emerging-market countries. not to mention, we are seeing more supply come in from the countries we do not think would make up the slack. lastly, consensus in fourth-quarter we will be half a million barrels deficit. that is not high on a historical basis, especially when you consider 2013, 2017, we were well oversupplied. vonnie: could saudi up and your whol

an interesting problem for the fed if headline inflation starts printing 4%, and wti is $100 per barrel. guy: how wide does the treasury bund spread debt? powell is talking about asymmetrical approach. -- a symmetrical approach. at that point, is the ecb behind the curve? that will feed through the fx markets and a bunch of other markets. the monetary policy can do merge for a long time and it is possible to continue to see the bund treasury spread wide and further. nf u.s. gropes -- wide further. how much will europe backup directly to this u.s. back off in yields? ira: one of the things you have seen that often occurs in the bond market, you have treasuries selloff first and then asia follows and europe is the last leg, and then you recycle back to wherever the kind of focal point of that selloff was. you can maybe get 10 year bunds up to 50 or 60 basis points if the u.s. markets continue to selloff. otherwise, it is likely to see some stabilization gives you have talk about this operation twist potentially going on to buy short-term bonds to buy long-term bonds to keep interest rates

wti crude is down 1%, having gained 1.5% last week.oad map, interest rate risk plus, ge share is jumping after an upgrade the bank is saying the ceo will have a turn around apple pushes back. the tech giant found no signs of a hacking attack an upgrade on that stock from citi that we'll dive into. a sell-off in chinese stock. china central bank free about $125 billion in an effort to boost lending, beijing is looking to boost china in wake of a trade war with the u.s. cutting reserve ratio. clearly big decline in chinese stocks as i mentioned, it was close last week. >> yes, you and i have been talking behind the scenes of issues involving china and china with this boost, may not be able to do enough we got our gdp going up and theirs going down. where all the goods going to go if they don't come to us >> another current growth, right? >> i think the point to make as well os thn this, the reserve level's falling. it is not the end of the world for them yet at this stage of development, they should be doing the opposite the current shou

and oil prices as you can see, wti up to almost $75 a share michael.chael. >> from one michael to another >> i was always hoping it's a common enough name, it doesn't really stick in the memory as a hurricane hopefully. >> it's kind of a back story of the -- >> i want to get back to today's top market story slumping as treasury yields hit multi-year highs if rates are rising for the right reason, shouldn't that be a positive for stocks? santoli is here with more. >> makes the peace with the new yields the yield was at about 1.7%. now it's at 3.25% market up more than 30% if the conditions are right, the stocks can do fine in this environment. and right now, it is real yields going up for the most part it's not just expectations rising that's kind of good. that does relate to growth rates in the u.s i do think, though, that you can't get away from the fact it does pressure stock valuations at some point. it raises the costs of corporate credit it obviously knocks some companies out of the financing box. that's why i think on a sector basis, there's a lo

oil markets, bigger than expected bills in inventory, and we had the demand estimates, and that means wti crude is on track for the worst week since may. as we talk more broadly, there have been a number of different cohorts that it out, the trade war, high valuation, the fed. but i want to talk about it, take a look at the chart, it shows the correlation between u.s. equity and bonds. the correlation has become ever more positive over this past year. david. david: thank you so very much, emma. coming up, the mysterious disappearance of jamaal in the conflict. we speak with someone from saudi arabia next. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this is "balance of power" on bloomberg television. we will turn to mark crumpton for bloomberg first word news. mark: larry kudlow is now blaming president trump's criticism of the federal reserve. speaking outside the white house to reporters today, larry kudlow says "the president said a lot of things and have a lot of fun." mr. kudlow: he has never attacked the fed's plan or strategy. he has never interfered with that. he is giving his opinion, and it is u

as for other commodities, brent crude is taking its cue from wti and the saudi story, coffee and sugarg a better day, today. the let's get a look at how fx markets are moving now. what we are seeing at the moment is equity markets bouncing around. fx, not that great right now. marketes is the fx classes,om other asset particularly the equity story as you got around? jane: look at the u.s. stock market and the u.s. dollar off of that. february, march, we started to see a lot of pressure on emerging markets. it was clear that a lot of that flow was dragged into the dollar in the reason for that was of course the good growth story in the u.s.. now we are coming to a different position. there was a big selloff last week with? out theretion marks about whether or not the time is right to move back, whether it is right to move potentially into bond assets in europe. there are different questions questioning the trends of the year and that has left a lot of people a little bit confused. you i'm interested in bringing up the issue of the treasury markets. factoring in the hedging costs to go a

that's creating concern there won't be enough supply coming out of america, driving up wti, and brentaying high because of the venezuela and iran situations. you are concerns further down the track that demand isn't really strong enough to support $100 oil. 40t's why people are saying dollars and so on. for the next two or three weeks, for the least, i think the pressure is to the upside. rba.t's bring in the they've been at a record low for more than two years. how much longer is this limbo going to last? >> it's likely to last at least a year. that's what the futures are pricing in. last month, the rba was sounding a little bit optimistic, a little bit more optimistic because the aussie dollar had been falling. it has plateaued. meanwhile, there is another thing going on, which is that house prices here are falling. they have been falling for about a year. we have a chart that shows that. as long as house prices are doing that, it's very hard to see the rba seriously contemplating a rate rise. at the same time, they can't really lower rates because the banks were already bumping up

it was a modest move lower for both wti and brent rising rates, lower stocks having a chilling effectn oil prices that is on the demand side but fear on the supply side a keeping them supported there hasn't been anymore clarity on what will happen with iran's supply, but there are reports that the saudis an russians have beenabout boostinr numbers. and national average of gas prices, up 41 cents from this time last year >>> despite oil taking a turn lower today, prices are still up 10% in the past two months and up more than 20% this year "wall street journal" also pointing out that there has been a spike in bullish bets on brent crude hitting $100 a barrel by january. that would be up about 19% from its current level. but what would it take to get there if we get there? let's bring in harold hamm, founder, chairman and ceo of continental resources. thank you so much for joining us i guess we will start right there, what is your best prediction for the price of wti and for brent, is $100 in the cards at all for either of the two? >> well, good afternoon first of all. and yes, it is go

. -- wti continues to climb its trading. comments bring you president trump was making. he referenced the brett kavanaugh investigation and said he does not think there will be a vote until the outcome of the fbi probe, but that it is a scary time for young men in america. he was asked if he had a message for young women. he said women are doing great. stay tuned. we will bring you first world headlines. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark crumpton with first word news. jeff flake says he is open mind on the fbi investigation into supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh. the arizona republican spoke today as news broke that the fbi has finished interviewing mark judge, a friend of cavanaugh, who was said to have attended the haskell gathering and early 1980's where christine blasey ford says she was sexually assaulted by cavanaugh. senator flake told the panel hosted by the atlantic and the national constitution center, i don't want to prejudge it. he also expressed sorrow and concern over the bitter partisanship in congress. parties butfferent we are part of the same organ, the sam

wti traded crude, the oil we refine here, what your gas prices are based on is up. 75.39.he show is called "worldwide exchange." you have the japanese market up a bit here muting that one we've seen lately, hong kong and korea down a bit. european stocks are lauer across the board. focus on this, that's italy. spain down 1% as well. along with france. again, we talked about oil the other big story to pay attention to today is italy. remember yesterday we walked you through how investors were treating the european markets differently. that story continues today markets reacting negatively to italy's latest budget. the yield on the italian ten-year rising again, 3.41%, the highest level in four years. that is weighing on italian banks, like unicredit, they are deep in the red today. a 5% drop for banco monte dei pasc paschi italy, we talked about it yesterday, i know it's wonky, it's out there, it's a big story that move making a dent in the euro let's tie all of this together with what's happening in the united states. patrick armstrong is chief investment officer at plurim

wti a little bit weaker. brent price also off at this stage. how about the attitude of risk across the middle eastern market let's take you out to dubai where cnbc has opened its newest studio embedded in the nasdaq market site at the dubai international financial center and dan and hadley are there for us good morning, guys >> good morning, geoff almost a decade covering a region and i finally have a partner in crime i'm very excited to welcome dan murphy from singapore. i'm still down the road at abu dhabi market. >> i'm excited to be here at the nasdaq market site in dubai, a fascinating region i think we set up our new office at a critical time for asset markets. look at the situation in oil in particular geoff, you were highlighting some of the most recent market moves. a key risk event coming up next week with the introduction of the iran sanctions hadley, as you know very well, this is going to be very, very important for the region particularly with the tensions in saudi arabia. >> i think it's goings to be very interesting next week an

how is the disappearance affect brunt and wti? >> yeah, exactly. you know, certainly here over in the uk we have the same kind of questions in terms of our relationships with the saudis but certainly not going away and massive driver of growth as well. in terms of oil market, we have been hearing little turns of certain voices that are related to the saudi officials and loyalty essentially alluding to the fact that the one major thing saudis control is oil. the saudis wanted to they can pull prices up, restrict higher oil prices, higher inflation and potential higher rates from the fed. lauren: joshua, thank you very much. cheryl: we send it over to maria bartiromo for a lot more on top stories, good morning, maria. maria: good morning, ladies, thank you so much. we will see you in a little bit. good morning, everyone, thanks for joining us, i'm maria bartiromo, happy tuesday, tuesday october 16th, top stories before 6:00 a.m. on the east coast, search for answers continues this morning, secretary of state mike pompeo has arrived in saudi arabia, h

off as well check out what's happening with oil prices very big focus with tensions in saudi arabia wti. 2/3 of a percent to the up side. >>> let's talk more about the markets and the big week ahead joining me is steven whiting, the chief global investment strategist at citi bank. i reeled off a lot of market data >> you did. >> there are so many things traders are watching. >> worries over all of them. >> all of them. >> in your mind what is the most important sning. >> we have very disturbed markets over what's happening with interest rate trends. we are yet to settle in where the feel is and where the federal reserve is going how much negative feedback do you need to have in equities markets before we settle into that range these are the sorts of things that, again, have left markets disturbed. then you come in and you have some geopolitical risk being priced into the market at a time when the markets have not come to grips at the moment again, a whole lot of those things will happen >> you said you have questions given the environment that we have that implies that you're not comfor

same story with wti. prices remain under threat because of hurricane michael in the u.s. nearly 40% of crude output is in the gulf of mexico, it's been shut down as the hurricane strengthens towards the florida panhandle. hurricane michael has been now upgraded to a category 4 hurricane saying it has intensified into an extremely dangerous storm. gabe gutierrez filed this report from florida >> time is running out before a rapidly intensifying hurricane michael slams into the florida panhandle. >> hurricane michael is a monstrous storm, and the forecast keeps getting more dangerous, and if you don't follow warnings from officials, this storm could kill you. >> reporter: 35 counties in florida and all of alabama under a state of emergency michael already drenching cuba a royal caribbean cruise passenger shot this video on the storm's edge. >> hurricane michael's going to be a devastating storm that's a part of florida that has not seen a storm of this magnitude in quite some time. >> reporter: today, a last-minute rush on supplies, bare shelves, long lines, frayed nerves p

brent crude trading close to the $85 mark wti crude at $75 >>> join us after the break when we will speakretary-general of the oecd. we'll be right back. . >>> it is 5:00 a.m here are the five most important things that you need to know to start your tuesday crude oil continuing its creep higher. >>> the brexit battle heating up theresa may making some major headlines as the clock ticks towards an exit. >>> a shakeup at google. the man in charge of the most important unit at the company is leaving unexpectedly >>> facebook tapping a company insider to lead instagram. >>> and all those subscription businesses that keep popping up, are they in trouble? the one company that may be signaling yes. it's tuesday, octobe

we on the energy side of things see crude oil, wti at 67.16. that's off by 2/3 of 1%. brent crude futures, $7.10 also about a 2gs 3 of a percent decline on that particular index. as we head to the currency side of things, dollar strength versus the euro. $113.77. dollar yen 111 spot poi93 at least in the early part of trading. we'll have much more first to today's top corporate sto story. ibm is buying red hat for $190 per share in cash. that's a 63% premium to friday's closing price. that deal valued around $33 billion excluding the debt side of things. this is ibm's biggest acquisition ever red hat will become a unit of ibm's hybrid cloud division and don't miss a first on cnbc interview with ib b bm ceo ginni rometty. >>> last week's wild ride on wall street left investors daze dazed and confused consumer discretionary stocks are now the worst performing group in the s&p 500 the sector now down 10% just in the month of october alone frank holland joins us with a look at why this could be one of the most important groups to watch this week. frank. >> good morning, do

what's your take on the oil market this morning both brent and wti? >> yeah, exactly.s added onto price of brent for the first nine months to have year. as you alluded to earlier, toward 100-dollar market. i don't think we are going to reach it. you see the number of drivers that have been pushing price throughout the year, iran and also considering the fact that when sanctions do and if they do come into play, unlikely you will impact full export. they always find a way to export to go other nations around the sanctions, i think it's going to take something else, you know, on top of venezuela, on top of opec at the moment who have decided recently to not raise production and iran, it's going to take something to give us big leg higher say $15 to reach $100. lauren: what's the likelihood that we produce more shell oil here in the u.s., do we have the ability to just get that shell out that quickly or opec ups production? >> yeah, exactly. i mean, look, u.s. production is the number one automatic stabilizing when it comes to oil prices. of course, opec is more political

right now wti crude down by a half percent $71.31 comexgold, up by 0.2%. euro versus the u.s. dollar, 1.1585 bitcoin just about flat, $6,439. joining me is talley legere. is this time maybe to get back into the markets >> one key thing that investors should look at is inflation and interest rates it's the combination of the two. clearly we've had cyclical upward pressure on inflation but not the same thing as saying we're on the leading edge of a runaway wage inflation, breaking the back of the economy. >> is it fair to say then given your views on inflation that you believe interest rates are the primary driver of the market as we stand right now >> i think clearly interest rates have and do matter but the reason why they're going up, i think, is key. if it's inflation, that's bad for stocks i don't think that's the problem right here if it's because of real growth expectations, it's good for stocks and the earnings channel. that's the best case here. >> we've heard the argument before prices are going up. inflation is good for some reasons. if we believe that, is there somet

of course month to date now down 9% for wti significant weakness bp bucked the trend of recent weaknessicantly year to date with those great results. currency board, the u.s. dollar up about a quarter of a percent yesterday. the broader index is up over 1.5% today seeing some dollar strength against the yen, which could be encouraging for risk sentiment. now we are on volatility watch following yesterday's wild ride on wall street at its high the dow was up 352 points at its low the dow was down 566 points a 918-point range. the biggest intraday range since february let's talk more about what the big swing meant yesterday. joining me is patrick armstrong. great to see you again >> good morning. >> let's talk about the intraday move yesterday does the fact that we got down 2% or so in the s&p and rallied so significantly over a percent into the close on wall street suggest that valuations got low enough and it's time to buy? >> i don't think so. valuations are stretched i think the one measure people talk about is price to earnings, that's the easy measure that everyone looks at. markets

wti is back below 79 a barrel.because as much as the back and forth, the terrible story around khashoggi, the threats by saudi arabia using oil as a political weapon, is it that envin toinventories o high, that it won't matter yet >> it won't matter yet there are fears weighing on the market, but the saudi oil minister also walked back the oil weapon threat. i don't think people now are believing saudi will take 3 million barrels off the market we have to see how this story plays out. right now people are focused on the demand side. >> rising rates, cooling stock market not good for demand. >> also the whole macro selloff. that is weighing as we get further out, get a turnaround, i think then we'll look at fundamental issues right now we're in the negative spot >> back to the saudi picture for one second i heard people say look the president is taking iran on. he doesn't want to take saudi arabia on, too even though the situation is obviously gruesome and horrific. >> also he invested a lot of political capital in

over 75 a barrel for wti, over 85 for ice brent crude mainland china is closed for the week when do weet a week-long holiday? japan was open it fell a bit. it's had a nice run lately european markets are mildly higher the euro is bouncing back on reports that italy will reduce its budget deficit more quickly than expected. yesterday everything was terrible, today everything is fine let's bring in steven maclo smith. it seems there's a lot of political risk we talk about every day on cnbc around the world that for whatever reason is not being priced into stocks. why isn't the market discounting anything political right now >> it's interesting that you think political risk is not being priced in. in europe, earnings are rising about 8% this year, the market is flat to down. the market is de-rated, and we think that's because of political risk and secondly trade, we are still waiting for a resolution to that on that there are some encouraging signs. >> i guess i'll ask it a different way. the markets here are at record highs. many european markets have done well do you think we would be d