this is the xhb now on a more short-term basis, one year. and we are toying with the prospects of breaking the trend that's been in effect for the last two years. now, keep that in your mind's eye and look at two big stocks that are part of this aggregation. toll brothers, same trend and now the break is under way. take a look at the next one. mdc holdings. same trend, break is now under way. these stocks are now massively underperforming the market. and here is the stock in question. we think this is a big break coming and would be very aggressive as short sellers. this is not good and it speaks a lot about what's coming for the stock market. >> not good, but it's been a very tough sector to short, mike, and i'm curious, if you look at the credit market, it's telling a different story. a lot of the bonds are trading at pre-2006 levels, mike, and yet they are rated as much lower levels at this point in time. >> yeah, you know, it's interesting, if you go back to this pre-credit crisis numbers for the home builders. if you look at pulte, thei

even the xhb is up 6%. gold as strong as it's been has only been up 4% over the last week.y the way, to joe's point, i agree. i think after a furious rally of about 8% off the bottom for gold, i ended up trimming up my short puts because just 20 minutes ago, took off my short puts, took profits in gold. i'm a believer but i'm going to wait for it to pull back now to get back in. >> as we head into a seasonally bad time for stocks -- >> no. >> no, i'm reading -- this is the intro. dramatic pause today. >> i thought it was a question. >> today's move, is this the start of the sell and may correction? let's bring in yahoo! senior sell in may, go away. it works almost year after year after year so consistently. will it work this year, too? >> here's the thing. it works over a long period of time as a general tendency. that six-month period beginning in may is weaker, pronounced weaker than the other six months of the year. if only it were so easy, right? have a nice little couplet that tells you what to do for six months. i think it's almost worked too well in the sense a lot o

so, the margins on some of the home-builders like toll or, looking broadly, the xhb, which is an etf for the home-builders, i kind of like going forward here. i think it is now at a level that it can grind higher. not looking for fireworks, but probably a relative out- performer to the market. - and you mention commodities. what would be your commodity plays? - looking again to see copper has not performed well here. that is kind of a china exposure play, so the weakness in china weighing on that, and also copper has normally been kind of the harbinger of economic growth - certainly not showing anything there. so, i think we will have to see copper head higher to have the market kind of head higher here. that divergence has gotten great. conversely, copper heading higher might hurt the home- builders slightly, but i don't see copper out of the gate sharply any time soon. - what are your favorite names in copper? - freeport-mcmoran certainly is the best way to play copper on kind of a large-scale basis. you have some of the south american companies that you can also play - vale would

. >> i was looking at xhb, the home builder, not just because the home builders themselves, most of it trading valuations, despite the fact that their revenues are off anywhere from 40% to 60% and have a much lower backlog of orders. you have names like williams sonoma in there which really hasn't seen -- it's seen a 30% decline in eps, names like bed, bath & beyond, similar issues down from 3.60 to 2.60 a share in eps there. take a look at the names in that etf, look like they could be at risk. potentially by p buy june 28 puts. >> what is so amazing about alerting people to these potential breakdown areas is that we have touched on most of the major sectors on the s&p 500. technology, discretionary with home foods and the home builders, transports, and we've got materials. >> yep. >> scary stuff. >> and that's why below the surface this has not been one day. this has been actually six weeks if you look at materials. it's been -- they're down 4% coming into today. >> right. let's move on here, one of our "fast money" traders sounding the alarm on the market's big run for quite some ti