the xlf's trading 23.60, bank of america is trading like 23.20. if you look out two weeks, the bank of america put options are much more expensive than that of the xlf ones and that is for very good reason. there's a lot of idiosyncratic risks, bank america could go down and it may not have the same effect. >> wells fargo also has idiosyncratic risk and anyone who has exposure to investment banking, you're talking about businesses that are going away. >> you've got asset managers in the xlf which are struggling, fairly extended insurance names not a good place to be. >> group of stocks that have been on fire, we're talking about the trips, the sem conductor surging more than 40% in just 12 months and trading just penny was. the run's been led by names like invideo up 183%, micron, applied materials has rallied more than 85% and the options market has been sizzling for one of these names, nvidia's open interests surging 25% this week alone. the chart master thinks the record runs could be coming to an end. >> this is the leading, obviously, tech na

>> let's do it. 50% of the xlf will report over the next two weeks. to me when i look at option prices they're relatively cheap here. when you have gains, you want to hold on to them, you think over the next couple weeks, we could see volatility, to me i think it makes sense to look at the xlf as a hedging product or make options to make a defined risk bearish bet. to me when it was trading 2360. you could look out at april expiration, about a 23-and-a-half put. playing 27 cents, a little more than 1% of the underlying stock right now. i know that it is just for two weeks. when you think about all those events, you think about everything we are talking about on a daily basis coming out of walk, this looks like a dollar keep way to hedge at least a. bank stocks or make near term bearish bet. i will mention this, you know, 1%, that's what you are ricking. 136r789s i think there is a good chance between now and april 21st, you will have a down day, you can look to spread these things. >> it's a narrow bearish view, would you make that a longer bet? but y

to me today when the xlf was trading 2360 paying 27 cents, it's a little bit under 1% for the stocks today. you talk about everything on a daily basis coming out of washington, this looks like a very cheap way to edge at least port folio bank stocks. and i'll mention this, 1%, taets what you're risking, 1%. i think between now and april 21st, you're going to have a 1% down day. >> would you make that a longer bet, since you're negative on the group? >> well, generally speaking i do favor -- if you're going to be long options, longer dated options definitely makes a lot of sense because the decay is less. it's likely if you're going to gelt some movement, then earnings are the movement you're going to get. so to me i can see why you would do that. >> that's to be determined. for now we know that it was a trap. anyone who's in it now is not liking what they're seeing. >> i'll just mention that xlf is trading $23.60. if you look out the bank america options are more expensive than the xlf ones. >> it has idiosyncratic risk, really. >> and even the big weightings and the big -- >> we're

xlf is down 8.4% from its high. contextually, it was up 327% frm the election. this is what stocks do. you get some consolidation. i'll talk my book, two of the highest quality banks in the world, certainly in the country, i don't really care about the whole policy debate about trump. some things will happen, some things won't and then some unexpected things that we're not even thinking about will also happen. i think when you buy quality in the space, you don't buy the highest valuations, you're got a nice return of capital between dividends and buybacks and you're in the right space within banks to mike's point, i think you'll do okay. volatility is the price you pay to do okay. >> people were falling all over themselves. >> not me. >> drooling at the prospect of dodd-frank and all this stuff, interest rates going up. to dick's point, two of the big catalysts -- >> that's strategists. >> the current trades -- >> if you go back a year, nobody wanted to touch this sector at all. why do we want to touch any regional bank or big bank, oil's at $25 and we're going

and cover the xlf. >> goldman holds 225. good long entry. >> briceline is my call.est way to play the transports. it will get you done. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. >>> "mad money" starts now. >>> hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to train you, but to educate and teach you. tonight i'm letting you in on something real big. the method of my madness. i know this is

and so, at this point, even being long an outright put in xlf doesn't seem as bad, but i would just go for a little bit of time, giving myself an opportunity to spread off of that trade. >> is there one financial among the big ones that reported, carter, that looks better than the rest chartwise or no? >> my favorite, i like u.s. bancorp, usb, probably worse because of the way it acted is goldman. just to come apart like that is not good. >> up next, tweets and the final call from the options pits. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. hthis bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that think

the xlf, in particular, was up 26% at its highs in early march.me, obviously, that reflected a good bit of enthusiasm. right now we have a six, the xlf is up about 18% versus the s&p up 10%. it's still 5% from the recent highs. to america's this is an interesting thing. you droo you this line right here. okay. that's that trend line. this is actually where i'm going, dude. i honestly think that you will have a check back as my boy talks about to that uptrend. then you may have an opportunity to buy it. when i think about this consolidation that we had, then when i see this move up here, it's almost felt like a proceed off the top. i think -- it's my time. >> thank you. >> i feel like you're going to get this move back to 22 and then have a -- you have some good stuff happen. >> 22 is 5% low. people have been dieing to get to the banks. >> buzzer, buzzer, buzzer. hey, that means back off. you. all right. any questions on the desk to discuss? >> can i ask a question? >> i have a question, gentleman. did the fundament also matter when you are just lo

if the xlf gets below and stays below. which is important, 23, you will see more weakness in the banks, okay. then in my opinion, that could make the overall indices or the broader indices take a little more of a dip and break that 23, 24 level. watch this close, if it hits an air pocket and goes lower, you probably don't want to be in the way if that breaks. >> we agree, there is as you mentioned, 195, 204 there is that downsize potential as well. >> i think goldman sachs, if it breaks. it broke the key level the an air pocket. i wouldn't get in the way of it. i'd wait to see price discovery happen. i think 195 to 105 is that area to look at goldman sachs. look at how the broader indices are doing. all right you see how the markets react as well. >> all right, scott, thanks. t 3 live. ly go to you. you mentioned air pockets. >> market cannot rally unless the banks rally. right? it's a growth narrative. the market is up for the nominal growth, improving data and the trump-ryan issues. the trump-ryan issues are taking a bac

so you look at the bank etf, xlf, 20, 80, support for weeks in the market.ks here on the idea that something may get done. i'm not saying it is, it's enough of a hint of a perception to get these things going. >> it's funny, we are all rational human beings. we hear these. >> at what point do you sa i to yourself, they trot out official after official saying tax plan, tax plan coming soon. big tax cut. everybody falls for it every single time. >> that's why taxes are trading the way they are. let's face it. i think that's the head fake to buy. look at those bank numbers, few want to look at them year over year to the quarter, you want to look sequentially over the first quarter, first of all the wall street side of the business, it crushed it. it crushed the main street side of the business. long growth wasn't great. you have a place here you got a very interesting dynamic for banks. the chart on j.p. morgan. again, we said this, a break of 84 means this stock can trade back to the low '80s down to 76. >> let's get a news alert at united. seema mody is in th

some protection, xlf short dated put. >> please stop the music. >> still, fade to black. please. >> i'm mellissa lee, see you back here tomorrow, >>> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's all a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >>> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you. let's be honest about washington. it's gone from a fabulous tail wind, to a bitter headwind. and on days like today, where the dow dipped 7 points, s&p declined 1.4%. it's more like a tornado that you just hope misses, you that's right, washington's back to its old tricks. so it's crime, right now, right here, on cramer's "mad money," had me rethink the whole idea of the trump trade. don't get me wrong. business is in good shape, both here and abroad. i'm not saying the economy is in trouble. it's just that the trump trades of today ar

and cover the xlf. >> goldman holds 225. good long entry. >> briceline is my call. best way to play the transports. it will get you done. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. >>> "mad money" starts now. >>> hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to train you, but to educate and teach you. tonight i'm letting you in on something real big. the method of my madness. i know this is the craziest, most bizarre thing not just on business tv but in television in general. a one man show on business. unless you're one of those people who tunes in to see if tonight's the night that i actually do the walker rails. it will happen one day. this show is all about the method or methods from strictly quoting the bar from my methods. why do i tell you some stocks are worth buying now or just on a dip? that's the question that everybody would like to know, tonight i'm going to give you pieces of the answer. one of the easiest ways to identify potential cramer names for stocks, but won't always necessarily end up on the show. but from watc

xlf had run too much by the time we got in and longer term i have to agree with josh i like vgk.s a great place to be. >> to the final trades, josh. >> i want to reiterate schwab. i think that this is like a $50 stock in the guise of a $39 stock. if you're anywhere near financial services it's so apparent to you how central they are to everything going on right now. >> jim? >> i'm long alphabet as well, josh. when they report, does this whole thing about the add placement come through this quarter? if the stock goes down, i'm buying more. i think you have to own this stock. >> i'm not buying anything today. >> really? >> a big week of reporting earnings. >> are you selling anything? >> i'm not. i trimmed a little today but it's a big earnings quarter. i'm going to wait for something to fall out of bed and i'll buy it then. >> you have the 97, 98, 99 coming up. back to the conversation before brokerage and asset management, i like it. >> thank you for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> "power lunch" starts right now. >>> yes, it does, melissa. thanks very much. we'll see you

i have the xlf. i rolled out of citi. i'm in j.p.calls, i expect the earnings to be strong. so these calls will expire at the end of april. >> time to vote. >> i think you buy but you wait. i think you get a better entry level in the stock. >> you see any similarity? >> do you think you get a best in breed valuation on j.p. morgue season. >> i think pete is right to be there. >> it does look like lululemon. >> no, that's who it is, it's lemon. >> so i think city is another bank to buy. pete did an excellent job j.p. morgan. >> i think you'd sell it here. >> for the reasons i don't think you will get meaningful tax reform to the points that people are excited about back in the day. so to me this one with interest rates and the curve, i think it's going. >> sam. >> i guess the tie breaker goes to super bank j.p. morgan, i'm a buyer. >> j.p. morgan like a superman logo on his chest? >> exactly. >> a better drawing than steve's. >> mine is better, but yes. >> the point is win look at it on the charts, my whole thing is it's not about der

xlf is down five. morgan stanley is down ten. goldman, nine, citi, two. >> judge, let me tell you this. and you've got a trade it. this is where what people peete and i do every day really comes in. i know everybody on the des b k does some derivative trade, but folk, if if you looked at that 27% rally out of jpmorgan from like josh say, election day through the beginning of march, 27%. now, we've corrected about 4.5% off of that, if you sold out the money calls, after that huge, furious run, exactly what leon coop cooperman talk eed about on tuesday, i'm selling the money calls and s&p 500. i don't remember which expiration he was doing. i picked two months out because i said the run has been too much. i still own jpmorgan. the only financial i own, but i sold at the money calls for four bucks. stock has corrected almost exactly four bucks. not that i knew anything, just saying that call insulated me against that drop, i'm not going to jump dump j.p. morgue morgan here. i think we're going to hit that number and -- >> on a three

corporate tax cut, then i would agree with that, especially after you've had a 10% pullback in the xlf. i'm not optimistic this will all happen. what did the president say yesterday. >> we are doing it first. >> bigger tax cuts. >> agreed. >> i don't know. he has a civil war in his own party. he has democrats that don't want to work with him. he will force the democrats by not paying these subsidies, affecting the most vulnerable. i mean, i'm telling you, that's not going to get the democrats to the table. >> think about banks relative to the s&p in terms of valuations that don't require all kind of things you are talking about. i don't believe we will get half this stuff done. i don't think we will get a quarter done. i stayed and i didn't buy, but by not selling, i take the trade. >> are you comfy if the trade is so low? >> that's what i'm asking, they overshot the upside. >> i don't think they overshot. i do think it's a healthy pull back. i think people, there was so much of the excitement about the trump trade and everything else, obviously, that was a part of what it is. i still

i think owning the efm trading the european bank over the xlf or mechanism in this current status quo i think the ecb is coming to the rescue of the european banks at this point. >> dak started the beginning of last year 2016, at 9,000, it's at 12,000. it's a significant move. we topped out at the beginning of 2015 and very quietly we haven't mentioned the stocks now, a couple weeks, but stifel nicolaus went from $20 to $scene.5 dollars in a m-- $16.5. you could potentially see it rolling over to the down side. >> you are asking ability the sort of alternate scenario. what do you think -- how would you sort of factor all this in. >> i think you have as to play it here. you touched on it, does the u.s. markets become more attractive? and i think that this seems to be -- everything that we're deeming with right now in our country in ouring whiour equitio be a sell on the headlines we have recently seen. i think this could be, these elections could be a point where you wind up selling offshore, before the u.s. and it actually becomes a catalyst in the buy event, maybe it coincides with t

the xlf. the first thing you notice is yields go giving us a heads up. that's typical.nterpret that a little quicker. if we look at the charts, financials are if blue. will you notice we have not broken recent lows, whereas the ten-year yield has broken it, especially with that push higher in bond yields today that divergence should pull financials down, heading into past earnings. so the stocks i'm looking at, particularly wells fargo, this is a technically damaged stock, obviously, there are stories going on there and the macro forces at play. there is a juicy 51.5 level. this has been the pivot for wells fargo for a year. i think the markets will try to suck it down t. earnings markets are expected a dollar, 1.15 move. we may get a push down around 51.5 from wells fargo, i am short financials, reaction put the trading nation, another quality program here at cnbc. a fast one, the next one, guy, you mentioned is goldman. goldman has been a massive under performer here. the first thing it did, we broke $230 technical support right here. we are form ally using it as a re

. >> i want to watch xlf. >> wll. whole foods market. they're buying calls again. i think had is going to rock even higher. >> cash is going to go up for a while and it's really performing. good to have you here. >> "power" starts now. >>> scott, thank you very much. welcome, everybody. i'm tyler mathis and global tensions front and center on this day. nato chiefs heading to the white house face-to-face with president trump. secretary of state tillerson meeting with putin, an unhe c unexpected meeting came in late, north korea also, of course, a big fear factor. this will never happen again. that's what united airlines ceo promises after that shocking video of a passenger being dragged off a plane -- there go the najarians again dropping their stuff all over the place. what united plans now in the future of oscar munoz. and a house divided. the murdoch house didvided abou what to do over bill o'reilly. the latest developments on this one. "power" launches right now. >> welcome to "power lunch." i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. as we speak secretary of state rex tillers

with that support now acting as resistance for the xlf, the big etf that tracks them, take a look atar spread, this is the spread between ten-year yields and two-year yields, some view it as a proxy for bank profitability. the wider the spread is, the more banks make in terms of profits. the narrower it becomes, the worse off they are. you can see here we've been trending lower for some time so bank profit margins could be squeezed because of this interest rate environment. as a result in the last month when banks really started roll overs, three have stood out in particular representing three different parts of financial services. number one, zion bank you can see here a down trend off by about 8% over the past month. mosh gan stanley showing some signs of weakness off by about 9%. andcal tal one shares off about 9.5%, 10%. three different parts of the market all tied to the interest rate market. >> financials have taken a turn for the worse. is this the beginning of a bigger drop or can the bank stocks turn around? let's bring in these two gentlemen. i will kick it off with you, je

that average price over the course of the last 50 days for this big etf that tracks financials, the xlfone part of the market to watch, financials, for sure, to see whether or not we can hold these levels -- the 50-day average price just one factor traders are watching. >> dominic, thank you very much. >>> given all this information what should you do with your money right now? let's bring in dennis gartman, ed itor edit editor. richard, let me start with you. looks like the mark is riding along on a nice, high plateau, not moving very much up, not moving that much down yesterday even when there was a dramatic falloff. what should i expect the next few months and what should i do as a result of that? >> a large part of the market move since the election, as we all know, has been anticipatory. the new administration and tax reform and potential deregulation. so that's baked in the cake. obviously the markets are going to be watching and seeing how quickly that takes place and what the bottom line is. but the market is clearly gotten ahead of itself in that regard. if you look at the econ

>> we own and are buying xlf, which is an etf that owns all of those financials, i'd look at goldmanthe pullback. i'm going to call this a one-time miss for the quarter and give them the benefit of the doubt. stuart: by the way, we're showing you mcdonald's, that's a high for that stock. it's up a buck, at 132. i've got news on that and i'll get to it in a second and that's why the stock is up. 132, mcdonald's. how about netflix? they say they'll have 100 million subscribers by this weekend when they'll pass that mark. steve cortez, comen, please. would you buy netflix? is that a big enough number for you, 100 million subscribers, is that a big enough number to make you buy netflix at 144? >> you know, i would, stuart. i don't own the stock, but i'm interested. i tend to like big cap tech in general and the fangs, facebook, amazon, netflix and google. and let's put it in context, the pullback, we're near all-time high. recording netflix, what i like about the stock, i want to see how it trades the rest of the day. earnings report yesterday were constructive, but it did miss on subscr