janet yellen hinted at that today. the fed is not back at 2% inflation until 2018. , we watched core inflation more than the headline. isis fact it will backslide given the dollar strength we have seen. at the market move. .67 print on the two yields. extraordinary. >> people are watching everything. do you agree there has been a shift? the affluence he led by janet yellen is finally acknowledging there is a hurdle? when you set an inflation target, you have to pay attention to it. >> absolutely. i'm getting to feeds here. let me go back. the key thing here has been the persistence of it, inflation.target the longer that persists, the longer it seems that is not doing what any to do to get the basic mandate. i think that played a role in the playing a role today. tom: when we look at the moment to 1950, and going back and harry truman in the we haveent of the fed, come to a new point. are the models that she spoke of in the press conference going to be forever changed from what you used at carnegie mellon at richmond a

comments from fed chair janet yellen yesterday. for the dow industrials. we're expecting 250 point move at the open. european markets trading well this morning. take a look. triple digit moves in england, france, germany. across the board, ftse up better than 150 points. 3 1/2% rally in cac in paris. yellen telling audience at university of massachusetts that a rate increase will come this year. >> most fomc participants, including myself, we currently anticipate that achieving this conditions will likely entail a an increase in the federal funds rate later this year. followed by gradual pace of tightening thereafter. but if the economy surprises us, our judgments are data appropriate. excuse me. monetary policy will of course change. maria: my bet october on the fed increase. world comes to the united states. pope francis addressing united nations this morning in new york while in the nation's capitol china's president is expected to make a joint announcement on climate controls along with president obama. we're covering both stor

#janet yellen.ave a look at social media reaction to >> a lot of hashtags trending that the reaction has been muted from key policymakers around the world but we did get comments from economist, from people in the finance industry following this decision. financial services firm raymond james tweeting out, its chief economist scott brown saying, the key issue is not the precise timing of the initial rate hike, but the pace of timing beyond that first move. we also have the head of u.s. macro economics -- greg -- saying #federal reserve will likely raise in december. but this will require a much, much better communication on hike and path. another person commenting on the timing of the next fed decision is an economics professor at the university of michigan, saying, yellen's claim that october is a live meeting sounds hollow. she has to say it is live. but what difference could a month make? october is not taking seriously because there is no press conference scheduled along with the rate decision t

obviously, we are listening to yellen. i think she is trying to put more clarity on this whole thing of uncertainty. if they had their window. >> didn't they do it? i think you're saying they shouldn't have done it. >> i think they should have. the think there would have been a sell-off early and the stock market would have rallied and would be higher today. >> i agree with what you're saying. i find this actually a little bit puzzling. it seemed to me this last no raise was very event specific on china trading badly. >> global. >> global, right. so to know -- when do they meet october 28, 29? a lot could happen between now and then. so i'm surprised that she didn't say -- >> you cannot turn on a dime what's going on. tim has been talking about it earlier with brazil. there is stuff set in place. it's like turning around a supertanker here. >> does that affect the u.s. economy? >> yes. it affected it because they changed their monetary policy, the way they view it. the stock market rallied 3% into that meeting last week. i

likelyth dot is highly janet yellen. it is position for the fed to hike rates at the next meeting where this press conference happens. that means janet yellen, the next meeting with the press conference in december will be a rate hike. tom: let's pause on this chart for a moment. this looks like something out of a jodie foster movie about going interplanetary. brendan: it does. like a videogame from the early 1980's. i remember them well. mike, the dots of course cluster the farther out you get into the future. dots time i see those cluster, it feels a little lazy to me. sometime in the future everything will be the way it used to be. can we still assume that we can cluster around 3%? tony: 3.5%. halfway through 2016. they adjust them all the time. their level is still above the level that the market sees the rates at, but the exact number, they move around. tom: tony, what does this mean for retirees, what we deserved yesterday at -- what we observed yesterday at 2:00 p.m.? you said the inflation distortion continues fo

you either read it as janet yellen looking at inflation or this is janet yellen saying, i'm not sureoking at, i'm not sure if this is a recession. brendan: the other thing to pay attention to is that the fed looks at a different kind of dollar than you and i look at. we look at the dollar is a value against the major currencies. the fed is looking at a trade weighted dollar. that dollar is much stronger than the standard cross dollar with the euro and yen. the is another issue with what tom keene calls the "rubin dollar." francine: there is always one guy, one central banker favoring a negative interest rate. brendan: we know who it is. the most dovish member, a dovish convert voting member of the fed of the minneapolis fed. lastis his swan song, his year he is on the board, his last chance to affect policy. not only is that lonely little. gone negative, he does not see a raise until 2017. that is the first time we had a dot waiting until 2017. janet yellen said negative rates are not something we have ever realistically can uttered -- considered. subtext, i don't know what he was do

even chairman yellen mentions that.ce you see wages begin to pick up and you are too late, that is what is happening right now. austan: but then that is also what they said in sweden when they race the race but then they had to cut the rates again because it went too far. alix: right, and actually that is one of the biggest risks some say. they will have to backtrack like we saw in sweden. steven: what if they backtrack, it is not because of the decision. it is hard to believe that going to 37 basis points is going to be the end of the war for the u.s. economy. i think that right now the question is do they have more stimulus then they need? i think the pace of the unemployment rate is dropping is telling you that the risk that they will have the full employment target a lot quicker. it was dropping half a percent year, i would say yes, they have some margin, they don't have to worry, but one percentage point here, that is a lot. alix: awesome stuff. thanks for joining us on this very big saturday. austan goolsbee, stev

before yellen spoke, it was at 43%.s increased, but there's more than half percent likelihood of no likelihood this year. when the fed didn't go last week , the pound was severely dented. this is the pound since last friday against the dollar. it is down by 2.3%, telling us that interest rate expectations are being pushed down. forward contracts based on the sterling average suggest that the first quarter-point increase by the bank of england will have them in november next year. before the fed didn't move last week, the suggestions were we would see a rate hike in august. this is a map showing you the chances of a u.k. rate hike. the middle part of the chart, the white line, is the chart that is the most central outcome. it tells us the first rate hike by the bank of england is likely august of nextt year at the earliest. really, whether you are looking at the soanya chart will looking at short sterling futures, looks like it ain't happening till the second half of next year in the u.k. francine: mark, thank you so muc

janet yellen and others emphasize it. the other is on the labor income share of the economy, still low relative to where it was in 2007. corporate profits are very high. there is room for wage growth at the expense of corporate profits , just the kind of thing you would expect to see as labor gets more powerful, as employment comes -- unemployment comes down. there is still a lot of slack in terms of the distribution between bosses and workers that i think hasn't really been touched in the recovery and that will be an important dimension of monetary policy going forward. joe: tom, what do you make of that? looking at it from a union perspective, is there room to go in terms of gaining bargaining power? tom: absolutely. all the indications are that folksal bargaining, don't have much power right now. when i look at this economy, something your viewers probably understand, bigger demand and supply perspective. the supply-side is the labor market. there are still pretty good indicators that there is labor supply out there. y

we discussed the broader impact discuss yellen's -- the broader impact of janet yellen's comments.fter the break. ♪ angie: checking stories making headlines across the world, the saudi king is reviewing security after 730 people are killed near back up. 900 others were injured -- mecca. 900 others were injured as people gathered for the last major ritual of the hajj. the names and genders and nationalities are not clear but iran says that 93 citizens died and that the saudi government must take responsibility. two weeks ago, a crane collapsed at the grand mosque. a chinese woman wanted by beijing as a part of a bribery investigation has been repatriated from the united states. the state media says that kwan is the wife of a former official of the bank of china who served a prison term in the u.s. for money laundering. she is the second person sent beijing launched a campaign to return suspects of economic crimes. the u.s. does not have a formal extradition treaty with china. mr. looking government says the abduction of three foreigners from an island resort is an isolated -- the ph

--s is after jalan yellen after janet yellen said the central bank is on track. am really interested in is brazil. after the volatility on the brazilian real, alexander tom seems to beledge for short of expectations. vonnie: francine, thank you so much. u.s. antitrust officials are looking at google again. bloomberg news reports the ftc wants to know if google stifle competitors' access to the android operating system. tech companies say google gives priority to those on its platform above others. co-years ago, the ftc closed an investigation into google's search business. android, has about 9% of the u.s. share. lg, motorola, all these countries would be affected if that was the case. : it is interesting that the ftc is looking back at google, those co-years after it closed the previous investigation. they had also touched on the android platform at that time. we hear is that this is very preliminary stages of the investigation. they have met with tech companies. they are starting to gather information. it is not clear how big this is going to become, whether it

yellen say? let's recap it. ms.len: the federal open market committee reaffirms the target range for the federal funds rate. in july, committee met the pace of job gains has been solid. the unemployment rate has declined. conditionsor market have continued to improve. inflation, however, has continued to run below are long-run objective partly reflecting energy and import prices. we expect the downward pressure will pay to overtime. recent developments are likely to put further downward measure on inflation in the near term. the outlook abroad appears to have become more uncertain as of late and heighten concerns about growth in china and other emerging markets have led to volatility. development since our last meeting, including the drop and prices and a widening in risk spreads have tightened overall financial conditions to some extent. the committee anticipates inflation will remain quite low in the coming months. we expect inflation to move gradually back to the 2% objective. guy: twitter obviously alive as she

that yellen has confirmed the u.s.s still on track to raise interest rates this year. in his speech at the university of massachusetts she plays herself firmly in the camp of ammittee members favoring 2015 increase, but she also said it would be gradual. the next decision comes on october 28. japan has phoned back into deflation. its main inflation gauge, excluding fresh food, fell in august from a year earlier. it is the biggest the kleins of -- the biggest decline since april, 2013. catalans head to the polls in an election seen by many as a de facto independence ballot. we spoke to one of the region's leading winemakers about his and why heit alone, is prepared to risk a slump in sales to split from spain. >> that is my flag. that is my country. leave us alone. take spain. best wishes for you, what we are cap atalnan. i work with my brother in a winery. it is like marmalade. it is really on the point. good. we had the opportunity in generations and generations to build for this country, build a new country with new

matt: does janet yellen address this directly?ve economist on all the time like alan krueger from princeton who says the reason you have so much, for example, or so little precipitation -- participation historically is that demographics of the country is changing but it has to come from somewhere and it can't come from retirees. increasedslack has and we do have fewer workers but the question is how much of it is demographics and how much is discouragement? alan krueger argues a lot of it is not discouragement mosey demographic. fromthose people are gone the labor force i want go back. a number of others say there is pool of people who would come back and we saw this in the 1990's when we had such a strong economy and unemployment got down into the trees. retirees decided i might as well work and make a little money because the economy is so strong and there are those that didn't even if we see a lot of people leave the labor force, they could be enticed to come back. or that, we need wage movement. matt: bloomberg news has drawn

janet yellen is about to give a major speech on inflation. will she use this chance to better explain the feds inking on interest rates? scarlet: that sinking feeling. we look at the emerging markets must -- emerging-market mess. joe: and norway's central bank unexpectedly lowers interest rates. what this means about the health of the developed world. we begin with the markets. andegin to mount a comeback to not have the juice and are closing in the red once again. for sectors closed in the green -- six out of 10 groups still down, led by health care and industrials. the outlook for inflation among investors is headed for the lowest since 2009. just another ugly day. we could not get act to but it was better than it could have it. one stock i was watching was the m w. a report early in the morning from a german newspaper that they might have some innovations issues of their own and the stock initially got them. late in the day, there was a clarification from the newspaper and it said we really don't have any indication that there were issues.

now we go to amherst massachusetts to hear janet yellen. [applause] janet yellen: my thanks to the chancellors for this lovely introduction. my thanks to the university of massachusetts for the honor of being invited to deliver this year's philip gamble memorial lecture. in my remarks today, i will discuss inflation and its role in the federal reserve's a conduct of monetary policy. i will begin by reviewing the history of inflation in the united states is the 19 axes. highlighting two key points. inflation is now much more stable than it used to be. running it is currently at a low level. costs then consider the associated with inflation and why these costs suggest that the federal reserve should try to keep inflation closed to 2%. after briefly reviewing our policy action since the financial crisis, i will discuss the dynamics of of inflation and their implications for the outlook and monetary policy. anyucial responsibility of central bank is to control inflation. the average rate of increase in the prices of goods and services , keeping

let's start with janet yellen. janet yellen, the federal reserve chairman.is out of the way, there were concerns about her health at that speech. you can read about that on twitter and websites. we want to focus on the substance of what she said. a lot of people talking about it right now. she clearly indicated she expects a rate hike in 2015. some of her fellow central bankers are commenting as well. he said, waiting to hear from yellen. it was quite a long speech in fact. brookings institution, which we know is top-flight, has great data on the janet yellen dashboard. shery: also trending, iphones. the launch of the success and -- 6s and 6s plus. just an upgrade from last year's model. is that an ipad she is holding? i have no idea. this is happening today. people excited about that. one person tweeting, today, the released was ribbon they posted a funny video. here is what you can do with it. it you can use it as a nepad. you can put your glass on top of it as a coaster. it is just a phone. people are dying because they do not have clean water. i repeat,

for the last hour we have been hear from janet yellen. various different remarks have been responsible for pushing these markets around. the dollar is down by a point on the dollar index, the vix is moving up higher, so in a sense we are back to where we started. >> it dipped bloi the vix below 20 at one time. i want to look at the two-year note as well. that seemed to be signaling earlier when it hit 81 or thereabouts maybe it was anticipating a rate index but it's come all the way back down as you see at .69%, the dollar going lower, that has pushed commodities higher, gold for one has popped today as they say. so that's up $12 now, a 1% gain, one of those few gains we have seen in the price of gold lately. >> if you are wondering why that hasn't pushed crude oil high i didn't remember, remember yesterday what we priced in crude oil was up about 5% and stephanie link told us she thought that might have been in anticipation as well. so a lot of buy the rumor sell the fact or maybe not going on again here, too. >> let's kick it around. ge

janet yellen: we are getting closer. the labor market has improved. we do not want to wait until we have fully met both of our objectives to begin the process of tightening policy given the lags in the operation of monetary policy. reporter: unemployment is down to almost 5% and growth is accelerating. those facts alone could prompt a rate hike and janet yellen says that october is a possibility. if conditions continue to improve, it seems almost inevitable. >> what can you tell us about the markets in new york? reporter: it's interesting. we have to reactions. if you look at the stock market itself, first, there's not much going on in the dow jones at all until we are suddenly during janet yellen's press conference a spike for no account reason and it went away as fast as it'd come. an interesting reaction of traders on the floor when the decision came. there was quite astonishment here and were surprised. people were shocked. you can literally hear that on the floor. that was interesting because initially most evil and wall street had said that they

but the fed and janet yellen tells us that it is code for what happened in china. ie: you think he is listening to the imf warning, there is no expectation once you raise rates to go backwards/ . enda: only to reverse it later, i guess she wants to be sure that there is a lot of difference in the market. they know that it could trigger turmoil in american markets. a freshhat didn't cause downturn, more shame for the american market, the fed not want to take blame for that. angie: it is what i heard that was very interesting. janet yellen in her press conference saying that october and december good still see rates rise. a lot of people dismissed october as a possibility. is that back on the table? enda: i think it is still a possibility. economists are not sold on november just yet. we're back to yesterday, when -- the capital outflow story from impact on currency the region, we are back to where we started many ways. angie: how are emerging markets going to fare after this decision? put: it will hardly currencies that are vulnerable, like the malaysian currency, i

janet yellen talked about the economic outlook in the u.s.eing in line with what they expected during the press conference but at the same time pointed to international concerns over the stronger doll -- strong dollar. rishaad: -- angie: how long do they hold it off for? jeanna: that is a great question. so they have two more meetings this year, one in october and what in december. in december. theoretically they could raise rates at either of those but the october meeting is just six weeks away and the december meeting is at a point of volatility in the markets that we are not sure if they are concerned about. it also is not much more data, more time for the market to recover. you raise the probable it could be as late as 2016 at this point. -- problem it could be as late as 2016 at this point, some economists are saying. you could make markets think that any source of uncertainty means you will delay and the fact does not want to surprise the market because that will cause unneeded volatility so that is another risk of not hiking in septemb

yellen -- t betty: nice of her to drop by.husetts, in a lot of investors will be watching for her comments, because it was a week ago today that the fed said it was going to stay put on interest rates. the markets have not been kind since the in action by the fed. yellen, the said chair on inflation dynamics and monetary policy, i will be talking about that and other things, coming up. betty: all right, we will be back on the bloomberg market day. ♪ betty: welcome back to the bloomberg market day, i am betty liu. -- it hasn't quite worked out that way, digital ad viewers, they are not human beings. advertisers are set to lose billions of dollars. here is mike riley. mike, we have heard about this, that it is a growing problem. bots are looking at ads and that is skewing the numbers, to the detriment of the advertiser. how bad is it? >> it is bad. the goal that we undertook was trying to figure out how massive volumes of fake traffic gets into the real internet economy, and it turns out to be a much larger problem than people r

janet yellen's comments seems to has refocused it a bit. she allowed it to influence the decision as much as it did. alix: one part of the story is about volatility. i want to take a dive into the bloomberg terminal. you can see the huge spike up at 21. let me put this into perspective. let's go back one week. look, higher volatility actually was. the front end was up by 8%. we can all freak out because markets fell and volatility has picked up that in relation to seven days ago, we are calmer. joe: the market generally is not like what it was a couple of weeks ago when it felt like panic time. i want to dive into my terminal. we talked about this idea that we haven't seen the type of market reaction you would expect to see. here is a chart of the brazilian real. you expect them to rally against the dollar. that did not happen. new lows in the real. alix: which is it worth? the dollar being stronger, or those countries are so bad that they can't rally even with a dovish fed? market selling off. our guest joins us now to break it down. what

but yellen won't be taking any questions tonight.is really up to her whether or not she will give us any hints about liftoff. of course her personality, jon hilsenrath who is on with us frequently basically said she likes to let people know. she doesn't like to surprise folks. maybe she will give us a glimpse whether or not she will have liftoff. lauren: she surprised a lot of people at fomc meeting though there are two remaining fed meetings this year. we'll see if the fed does it. bill gross, bond manager at janus capital. he has strong advice for the fed. the central bank should get off zero and get off quick. that's a quote. gross said zero interest rates, hurting real economy and destroying insurance company balance sheets and pension funds. fed kept benchmark interest rate close to zero since late 2008. it has to go up at some point. nicole: we're talking about volkswagen. ceo martin winterkorn is out resigning yesterday in the wake of the diesel emissions scandal potentially impacting 11 million cars. the company pledging to p

chair yellen: that is a very hard question. it is why we come together and had very careful of valuations of a wide range of factors. -- evaluations of a wide range of factors. but at the end of the day, we are focused on two things. the path for employment, and whether or not we feel confident we are on the road that will take us to our maximum employment objective, and whether or not we see the risks around attaining that as balance. of course, there will be uncertainty around it. with that, we have reasonable confidence inflation will, over the medium-term, go back to 2%. it is really through that filter that we are trying to look at uncertainty. of course, there are many uncertainties in the global economy, but we are asking ourselves how economic and financial developments in the global economy affect the risk to our outlook for our two goals, and whether or not they create unbalanced risks that we want to wait to resolve to some extent. >> can you talk about what foreign developments you discussed and what you are concern

janet yellen saying a rate hike likely this year. there are two more scheduled policy meetings left. we'll ask one fed watcher what he expects the fed to pull the policy trigger. s&p down one and a quarter. nasdaq down seven points. very volatile session yesterday, nicole. nicole: look at asian stocks. shanghai, hang seng, kospi all gaining. nikkei pulling back 2%. nikkei the story. somewhat of a mixed bag this morning. lauren: how are stocks trading in europe? opened to the downside and trading to the downside. dax is down almost 2%. 1 1/2% decline in paris. ftse down 1 1/2%. nicole: chevron the best performer on the dow. crude oil is on the move. seeing it to the downside, down .75% at 46.55, lauren. lauren: show you gold prices. after the fed passed on the rate hike, investors putting their money here. $1133 a troy ounce. nicole: a lot of talk about the euro-dollar. let's see where it is. saw it pull back yesterday, gaining today against the green back. u.k. dollar, peso, all stronger against the dollar. lauren: strength against t

i think back to yellen.ing for a long time that it's not likely that they raise rates this year and i think from a risk/reward profile it makes sense for them to be behind the curve on this one instead of out in front of it. so i wish that janet yellen would just take it off the table, say, things are so uncertain it's going to be a little bit of time, we want to give it several months in a row to see a trend so that the market ask stop worrying about that and we can take that piece of uncertainty off the table. i don't think that it's realistic. >> what do you think, steph? >> back to china, i mean, caterpillar horrible, but starbucks wasn't horrible, apple wasn't horrible. my suspicion that mcdonald's and yum brands won't be horrible. i think it really depends on where you're talking b where you're focusing on in china because we know they are going to a consumption base and they are in the process of it. >> earnings this week beating expectations. looks like we have another name to add to that mix as j be

. >>> well, coming up, a health scare for janet yellen.hy the fed chair needed medical attention in the middle of a speech. >>> and verizon dials back one customer's bill totaling $2 million. you're watching the "cbs morning news." it's like...a little fluffy cloud in my mouth. fluffy, fluffy cloud. mmmm, yoplait. still not sure whether to stay or go on that business trip? ♪ should i stay or should i go well this fall stay with choice hotels two times and earn a free night. when it comes to business, you always have a choice. book now at the new choicehotels.com oh. yes, hi. want to survive... ...a crazy busy day? start with a positive attitude... great. thanks. ...and positively radiant skin. aveeno® positively radiant moisturizer... ...with active naturals® soy. to help reduce the look of brown spots in just four weeks. i gotta go. and for gentle makeup removal... try our nourishing wipes to brighten skin. aveeno®. naturally beautiful results®. iand quit a lot,t but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique ext

so much for that relief rally on janet yellen's speech.the rally stayed as the day went on. we have seen the dow as the leader throughout the session. that continues. now it is counterpart -- now it's counterpart, the s&p 500s, and the nasdaq have turned lower, the nasdaq very solidly so. a big swing in an average today. techs --00 versus bio that is the biggest drag we are seeing today we are for the us of the 500, virtually all of its drag is from the health care groups. you have the s&p 500 in yellow versus, and white, the idb, an i-shares biotech etf. the idb has the drifting lower throughout the day. the s&p 500 was holding up well until around 2:15, when it broke down and started gaining steam to the downside. pharmaceutical stocks are some of the worst performers in the s&p 500 today. it was biotech, but it is also big cap pharma. all of this, a cell of continuing since hillary clinton tweeted a few days ago that she was looking into capping pharmaceutical prices. it is interesting that the selling in that group has not abated. it h

janet yellen affirmed she is ready to raise rates at some point this year. here is what you need to know about her speech. >> most of my colleagues and i anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target rating to the federal funds rate sometime later this year, and to continue boosting short-term rates and a gradual pace thereafter. forc were to delay for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. united states has experienced very low inflation since the financial crisis. in part, that reflects persistent economic weakness that has proven difficult to fully counter with monetary policy. jonathan: let's get the conversation on central banks. gentlemen, great to have you with us this friday morning. charles, to you, i believe there are some available spaces on the board. if you were on the board, how would you be voting right now? charles: i think that i would have voted to raise rates, but 12.5 have raised them by basis points just to in

yellen. they mentioned china in the press conference -- there was a focus on emerging markets and china is a big part of that. jonathan: great to have you with us. that is the market reaction in asia. here in europe, stocks open lower. coming up, janet yellen holds fire. everything you need to know from her news conference, next. then druggie and kuroda waiting for reprieve. what the fed decision means for the ecb in the boj. later, greece -- the second election this year. we are live in athens as political parties wrap up their campaigns. ♪ the federal reserve sidestepped the opportunity to raise rates for the first time since 2006. here is fed chair's janet yellen's news conference in 90 seconds. >> the central open market committee reaffirms the current target range for the federal funds. july,the committee met in the pace of dropped gains has been solid. the unemployment rate has declined. an overall labor market condition has continued to improve. islation, however, continuing to run bel

yellen saying the fed will raise interest rates next year.omments easing worries the easing worries that global easing worries that global economies are not helping enough butters beach overshadowed a medical scare struggled to finish her speech that she did receive medical attention and resumed her schedule as normal. apple fans get ready. for iphone hitting the shelves today. analysts at 13 million phones to be sold over the weekend. volkswagen looking to take the next step to work on fixing a mission scandal. automakers have to name mathias mueller. he currently serves as chief of porsche under volkswagen's umbrella. maria: and other porsche ceo takes over. forget of 80 weeks to book a doctors appointment. one company helps one company hopes patients both in real time. cheaper rates are on the fox news network. features off of their high with a triple digit move. we will be back in a minute. ♪ maria: welcome back. you probably have this experience. have you ever waited days or weeks to book a doctor's appointment. the online booking platfo

they seem to like the slightly more hawkish yellen.t really gave it up -- the by a tax-cut of liberated. gothe biotech's obliterated. a brutal dive. everything sells off. everyone trading on momentum stocks now. joe: everybody blames hillary clinton's tweet, but there has been this global sentiment shift biotech's are caught in. to q2 strong revisions gdp. the personal consumption index grew 3.3%. this is the hero of the economy, the american consumer, u.s. consumption continues near its highest level. this is a 10 year chart. we are at the top of that range. if that will see continues to be the case on monday. i want to look at u.s. swap rates, what they paid for loading rates. when the great below treasury yield -- that is happening now. the 10-year maturity shows we are below that. the two-year spread is narrowing, 9.5 basis points. what is going on? large-scale selling of treasuries. companies issuing debts. as a result of the financial crisis. it is creating a perfect storm. joe: i want to dive back into my , speaker john boehner

. >> european stocks see red after the fed holds steady but janet yellen is criticized for creating a third mandate and blames the growth concerns in china for the decision to hold. >> the outlook abroad has been more uncertain as of late and concerns about china and other notable market economies lead to notable volatility in state side markets. >> the dow swings 300 points. but today's futures are pointing to higher open. >> a vote could throw the imme menation of the bailout in doubt. >> japanese stocks closing in the red despite optimism for the bank of japan. growth is returning but they will keep a watchful eye on china. >> the reaction by european stocks this morning is a negative one as you can see. we're seeing red particularly in italy down 1.34. now the reaction was sort of simulate yesterday in the u.s. we didn't see a rally, certainly. it was sort of mixed to down and we are expecting a bounce back today for u.s. equities. the dow expected to open up about 10 basis points. s&p similar and the nasdaq just above flat. for this negative reaction we've seen in europe and the

it depends on what janet yellen says.f the phillips curve and this is a very lifelong relationship, if you will, going back across the good part of the 20th century on unemployment and inflation. we got michael mckee in washington. i am in new york. it is fed they would terrific guests. coming up, john ryding of rdq. stay with us. ♪ bloomberg's "surveillance." i am brendan greeley and you top headlines. the problem that has locked down gm ceo. the criminale investigation into faulty ignition switches and bill pay the justice department $900 million. the report said that lawyers and engineers knew about the defect for years. they are blamed for more than 100 deaths. in chile, a strong earthquake forced one million people to leave their homes. it measured 8.3 on the richter scale and cost 50 foot waves into the northern and central coasts and at least eight people were killed. tsunami advisories have been issued for kawai in parts of california. opec is bullish on oil. they expect prices to rise and will hit $80 a barrel in

let's talk more about janet yellen. i don't know how you felt about the speech yesterday but i felt she was backtracking from a very dovish message she went out last week when the fed didn't hike rates. she focused a lot on the risk of not wanting to keep rates on hold for too long. she talked about excessive risk taking and that being a danger to financial stability. she talked about being forced to raise rates too abruptly and one commentator said this feels like a speech explain ing why the fe would have hiked rates but didn't. >> she said all along that they wanted to hike rates this year. she made that clear and she is pointing to the slack in the economy. they always talk about slack in the economy. to her it's diminishing as we have inflation pressure set to build as that dollar should be coming off sometime this year and we have a recovery when it comes to oil prices as well. >> if she didn't change her tune, why is it that asian markets fell so heavily. >> no one wants to hold risk into the long weekend. that's

janet yellen: i don't see it that way.t is true that interest rates have hit asset prices, but they have complex effect for balance sheets, through liabilities and assets. , the thing the modular policy does is put people back to work. inequality isme surely exacerbated by having high unemployment in a week job market, this is the most on thed negative affect most vulnerable individuals. to me, putting people back to work and seeing a strengthening of the labor market has a disproportionately favorable effect on vulnerable portions of our population that is not something that increases income inequality. there have been a number of studies that have been done recently that have tried to take account of many different ways in which monetary policy acting through different parts of the transmission mechanism effect inequality. there is a lot of guesswork involved in different analyses can come up with different things. a pretty recent paper that is come copperheads of -- prehensive concludes that policy is not exacerbated in

janet yellen is a very solid fed soldier but i'm just not sure she is leader. and i sort of thought that, you would get from the fed vice chairman some, stanley fischer, some kind of a like, maybe a co-chairman role, but he hasn't even stepped up. david: no. >> the one important thing to make here, the president's choice of the fed chairman, may be the most important choice he makes in terms of an appointed job. david: very close to supreme court justice, no question. i have to give scott a final quick word. scott, are we going to see this kind of market instability as long as the fed is unstable as it is? >> without a doubt, david. it will get worse and worse as we get closer to the next meetings. i think the big telltale sign today, look at bonds. bonds have been getting hit last few days. today they rallied big. rates dropped especially on shortened. if you want safety i would go there. david: scott, david, deirdre, jimmy, great panel. very much appreciate it. melissa. melissa: red, white and trump. "the donald" comes out swinging against the competition. we

jurp europe is sharply higher but there was a scary end of yellen's speech. calling it dehydration under hot lights. >> nike shares getting a boost. among the drivers, china, surprisingly strong. >> and an apple a day, people lining up from australia to california to get their hands on the newest iphone this morning. it's friday, september 25th, 2015 and squawk box begins right now. ♪ >> good morning and welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. andrew is off today. the big story here in new york city this morning, pope francis is here. the pontiff continuing his united states tour. thousands greeted him as he arrived in the big apple yesterday afternoon. lining the roadways, waving flags, snapping pictures. today the pope will address the un. he'll also visit the 9/11 memorial, stop at a school in east harlem. go on a motorcade through central park and end with a mass at madison square garden. is

how do you interpret janet yellen's language? >> i think what she is say ig she is going to give it time to let the economic developments and financial developments work through the system and the economic data and give themselves more time to be more confident in the outlook. this was the historic fed meeting that wasn't. we thought they might raise rates. it's about a 50/50 shot. i want to share the operative phrase. "recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." how long until you feel you'll get a good read from the data and get that confidence you're looking for to raise rates? that's the question i asked janet yellen. >> there always be uncertainty. we can't expect that uncertainty to be fully resolved but in light of the developments that we have seen and the impacts on financial markets, we want to take a little bit more time to evaluate the likely impacts on the united states. >> we did a flash cnbc

janet yellen says economic activity in the u.s. is expanding at a modern pace, but notes developments may put a brake on growth. yellen said taking the first steps to hike the rate continues on employment improvements and mentioned the likelihood of furtr downward pressure on inflation in the near rm. >> the committee continues to anticipate that the first increase in the federal funds rate will be appropriate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2% objective over the medium term. >> yellen said many believe a rate rise is appropriate within the year, and that certainly includes the october meeting. for more, we spoke to the chief researcher at the research institute, and he gave details about what's behind the fed's decision. >> in light of the u.s. economy fundamentals or strenh of the u.s. fundamental economic activities, i think it's already mature to do something on the rate front, but still, in light of the situation of global economies as we

is janet yellen catching up with ubs? >> i think it is difficult to think of the fomc as a single person. it is a cluster of dots. -- not necessarily a cluster of dots, there are different views. but it is not as though there are two competing ideas. there are 17 competing ideas, and they are all being talked about. we do not even know what the probability of a rate move is. vonnie, you said 32%. if you look at the 2-year note, it is higher than 32%. higher commercial rates -- there are all these different ways to look at what the probability is. because we are moving in a range, it is less certain. say 17 opinions, but the three top opinions carry more weight, right? stan fischer, janet yellen, and dudley? drew: i would say with the rest of them, there are people who are very well regarded. the question is, how much do financial conditions matter? that is the only question because they talked about the model driven. it was no model i know of that the fed would used that would say we are going through our natural rate of

charles: more details on janet yellen.he paused numerous times throughout the last page of her speech. i want to take a listen again. >> monetary policy will, of course, change. let me stop there. thank you. [applause] [applause] charles: and ambulance did come, but about ten minutes later they left without janet yellen, so she is not receiving medical attention. she has been taken off by her own motorcade. she was lightheaded, went to the green room, drink some water, and everything is okay. set to resume her schedule thursday. now i wanti want to get back to the pope for david's historic speech. herehere to break it down to congressman who attended the address. recently visited the vatican. thank you very much. the business to the vatican, tell us about that and your impression so far particularly with this joint session of congress? >> very father like command one of the surprise was that he had a great understanding of america's tradition and hit it out of the park when he said america is the land of the free end out t

will be atnet yellen 5:00 p.m.o the s speaker john boehner waits for him. we will give you a description on bloomberg radio. what is the spread between hawks and doves on the fed? is there a great clarity or is that overplayed? >> i don't think it's overplayed. i think there is a great clarity. -- there is a great clarity. you see most of the governors in washington tend to support yellen. tom: let's go to capitol hill where pope francis is meeting with speaker john boehner. at the capital as we look for the joint meeting. we will take a look at this right now as they sit down on capitol hill. michael: for those on radio, we can tell you they are in the ceremonial reception room in the capital. john boehner is a catholic and his speaker of the house. and theeeting the pope pope's officially traveling party before the address to the joint meeting. tom: we will set -- we will see that address at 10:00 a.m. here on bloomberg television. we continue with mickey levy. there needs to be a grace and the pope will speak ab

is that a sign from janet yellen yesterday? choking? feeling that she could not hike rates because the economy isn't strong enough meaning that the u.s. doesn't have a chance. if you are watching in the u.s., will you be watching the rugby world cup? do you care about rugby? >> you're already trash talking and the tournament hasn't even begun. >> it's important. new zealand, big, big favorites but the kiwi dollar is falling. they've had to ease. perhaps that shows weakness. >> well, new zealand, there you go, that's my picture of meeting them in hong kong in 2010, maybe i was a deciding factor. lucky charm in that rugby world cup win. >> what are you doing this afternoon? let's get you to the england team and get a photo. >> i could meet them, you think? >> i think. >> will johnny wilkinson be there too. >> he retired. >> i know. >> but we could arrange for him to be there. >> excellent. >> he'll be covering it for television i have no doubt about that. he's such a legend. >> he is such a legend. >> well, you know, we're going to talk a

chair yellen: inflation has continued to stay below are 10% objective. partly reflecting declines in energy and import prices. my colleagues and i continue to expect the effects of these factors on inflation will be transitory. however, the recent additional decline in oil prices and further appreciation of the dollar mean that it will take a bit more time for these effects fully dissipate. charlie: joining me now is glenn hubbard, the dean at columbia business school, a top republican economic advisor. gillian tett is u.s. managing editor at "the financial times." alan blinder is a professor at princeton university and a former fed vice chairman. david leonhardt of the new york times will be joining us. he has joined us now. i am pleased to have him as well. alan, give me a sense of what happened today. and what might these deliberations have been like? alan: i think they were contentious and a polite sort of way. everything is polite. the committee is divided. from the statement, you can tell clearly that janet yellen was on the dovish side and was in

jonathan: are we expecting a different janet yellen today?developments this evening whatsoever? jim: she is an extremely careful communicator, i would not expect to get a lot of new news out of her speech. jonathan: your point on confusion is an important one, it is called federal confusion. we can't decide if it is positive or negative for risk because they have such a pessimistic view of the global economy. that is caused somewhat of a pullback. has that added on to risk? im: we have been reducing risk steadily in the wake of the downturn of the markets. we put our first step back into the markets, increasing our recommended exposure towards europe, the u.k., and japan. backe taking a first step towards increasing risk, but we want to see more confirmation that the economy is growing for us to increase. jonathan: one thing we do know is they hate frightening financial conditions. the question i have been asked is whether the federal reserve's concern has given investors the green light to buy credit again. is it a green light? m: we think t