we figure out what yellen does next. i want to show you the nikkei, because it was much worse than expected. i wanted to show you crude at 38.19, tom. tom: very good. the bloomberg getting set up for jeffrey and gary. dollar index up we go, and this defines a range -- i rarely do this. i rarely use settlement and resistance lines, but it really works here. just round range-bound with this new dollar weakness. we're not there yet. there it is. one of the themes on an international jobs day. francine, what do you have? francine: i like that. that's exactly right. it's an international jobs day, especially after janet yellen will lay out her biggest concerns, talking about dollar strength and talking about the emerging markets, including china. i want to show you something a little bit different. i wanted to show you the index, this is the indian stock market, and i put it next to the -- you can see this is pretty much a story of all emerging market currency. when yellen says she won't hike, this is what happens. and there'

i remember what yellen said. i asked her one time, these people are saying this about policy and this. she goes, what can i tell you? we don't always sing is a chorus the same song, the same tune. jobhas done a pretty good given that she's only been on the job two years. she seems to be quite a strong chair. mark: it was interesting because what i heard this event was going to take place and you and i were going to be up here, the one thing of wanted to try to get your thoughts on -- i am more interested in ben bernanke. as a student of u.s. economic history, in particular a fierce student of the great depression, his legacy was built on the fact he was not going to let this country go through another great depression. he was firm and that. we will do what we have to do to prop up this economy. was met bye message the president of international house about taking with the punch bowl for the party really gets going. chris: they are still trying to get and primed the pump here to try to get things going. certainly.

janet yellen and three predecessors. lineup includes the following -- an exclusive with the chairman of jp morgan. finance minister on his first interview of the day. ♪ a.m. in new 1:47 york. futures are indicated on the s&p 500. a quarter ofcated 1%. what a beautiful shot. in london, it is exported 8 is 6:48 a.m. we are setting up for our trading day. we have the business flash news. kumatha: verizon plans to make a first round did for yahoos web business next week and is willing to apply the japan sea to help sweeten the offer according to people familiar with the matter. a separate person says google is also considering bidding for yahoos or business. shares in south retailing has plunged falling the most since 2013. the owner of unit of flows lowered its operating profit forecast by one third. it was hurt by the strong yen and an unexpectedly warm winter. the fbi says it paid for the tool that was used to break into an iphone last much and is can do during whether to tell at all how it was done. u.s. authorities brou

yellen: i certainly am.e have laid out, as has been indicated, a strategy for how we will wind down our balance sheet. we have made clear that eventually, we want a substantially smaller balance sheet. and at the present time, we hold a large quantity of mortgage-backed securities, agency, fannie and freddie, mortgage-backed securities. eventually, we would like to go back to an all-treasury portfolio, but we will do it in the manner that ben just explained. we have shown -- the move in december showed we have the tools and ability to successfully manage short-term interest rates. we moved them up not a lot, but 25 basis points. that occurred smoothly, in spite of the fact that we had this very large balance sheet. so, we have tools to tighten monetary policy as we think is appropriate for the economy. and we would like to, you know, get a little bit further underway in terms of moving short-term interest rates toward more normal levels before we let -- follow the strategy bin outlined of allowing assets to

all of that combined is where chair yellen is.er members of the fatter much less concerned about getting to does levels of employment and are concerned about what they see as dry tender in an environment where wages accelerate with little productivity growth. you will see interesting debates emerge at the fed this year. take: what is it going to to see more productive economic growth? diane: i think the fed does not have as many tools to cure what ails us. i think we need fiscal reforms and tax reforms and responsible andastructure development long-term sustainability, which we don't hear any of the presidential candidates talk about. issues and il think there are some real problems. we will see gdp that is weak in the first quarter. some of that is a measurement problem and we have not funded them in a way to keep up. retail sales are antiquated compared to how we consume our goods. move to the second half of the year. what does it look like? average.think 2% on we will continue to see gains in employment. i think it will dip dow

janet yellen says the u.s. is not a bubble economy, but today we'll hear from policy members from both camps. and that could spark a volatile trading session. >>> consumer crunch. shares of gap under pressure this morning as retailer sales fall short. >>> and it's cut day in augusta. defending champion jordan spieth at the top of the leader board. it's april 8th, 2016, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. >>> a weekend of golf. what could be better? good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. great to be with you this morning. let's get right to the market action. we're looking at gains for u.s. equity futures following the lead we've seen in markets elsewhere around the world today. almost triple dimgits on this friday for the dow. the s&p up 12 points. the nasdaq up 31. this follows a day where markets traded in the red for most of the session yesterday. the dow seeing its worst daily performance since the 23rd of february. it was a disappoi

fed chairto decide if look atle yellen will payrolls. the answer potentially coming up of minutes. 19 minutes away from payrolls. let's get you up to speed. futures little bit negative here in the u.s. on over in europe, 1.3%.y stocks 600, down almost 8% last quarter, switch on the board. global market being reduced to what feels like one big fat trade. stronger euro. score card and treasuries ahead payrolls. yields pushing higher by two bases point. crude prices down by 2.43%. the bottom one, bought to you by saudi arabia. love these little .ponsorship we will start getting money. justt to point blackberry cents a, loss of three share. let's get a check of the headlines. starting with saudi arabia is getting ready for the twilight oil age by creating the sovereign fund. themmed bin salman said fund will control more than $2 million. asset will be shared. at the nuclear summit in the focus will be on islamic state. president obama will try to efforts from again oh keep getting nuclearettin facilities. and new york are with the first stat

yellen: i was say the u.s. economy is made tremendous progress in recovering from the damage from the financial crisis. market is surely the healing. jobs a average 225,000 month. unemployment stands at 5%. to ourcoming close assigned congressional goal of maximum employment. inflation, which my colleagues spent much of their time as chair bringing inflation down from unacceptably high levels for a number of years, it has been running under our 2% goal. we are focused on moving it up to 2%. we think it is partly transitory , the strong dollars responsible for pulling inflation below the 2% level we think is most desirable. we are making progress as well. on a solideconomy course. not a bubble economy. attried carefully to look evidence of potential financial instability that might be brewing. some of the hallmarks that clearly overvalued asset prices, high leverage, and rapid credit growth. we don't see those imbalances. rates are low, it can encourage and reach for yield behavior, i went and described this as

every time we get into this slump, it feels like janet yellen at the new york economic club, janet yellen at the fed meeting c ining comes and rescu market. after a 1% slide yesterday, that was my question going into today. >> okay. let's get to today's corporate story news. of course, the big one yesterday, pfizer and allergan will mutually terminate their merger following inversion rule changes. pfizer will pay allergan a $400 million break fee. both sides agree the treasury overstepped its boundaries. sources say neither drug maker watched to risk launching litigation against the government. >> a lot of people are getting hurt on this. i was just looking at some of the hedge fund losses. so many people are in this name allergan. with the 15% slide yesterday, john paulson lost 215 million estimated on paper. so many other big names are in this as well. and there's a lot of discussion on whether the treasury did this sort of surprise move -- i think jim cramer called it the nonchalant moving of the goalpost. he did a deep dive into the fact they've tried this three times in the last two

interview not only janet yellen, ben bernanke, alan greenspan. the most legendary combo of interviews. >> but three of the four cannot move markets whatsoever. >> that's true. and nobody is actually looking for her to move markets that much. >> be more jealous if the panel had draghi, kuroda, carney, and yellen. that would be epic. we'll organize that one. >> this is "worldwide exchange." we'll go global. fareed, you've got nothing on us. >> once we've organized that. right. our top story this morning, jpmorgan releasing ceo jamie dimon's annual letter to shareholders last night. among the highlights, dimon says he's not worried about negative interest rates in the u.s. that's because the chief executive notes housing is in short supply. car sells are at record levels. consumers are spending what he calls the gas dividend. dimon is more concerned about rates rising faster than people expect, which is odd for aening baaing ceo to outline that rue. the banking ceo also warns high

he went right at it with yellen on monetary policy.onnie: absolutely. -- he wasn'tthink supposed to ask those questions. it was great. it was really something. vonnie: the lowdown for michael mckee. tom: michael mckee will give as wins -- wisdom and the next hour. of up 94, oil gets a lift. it is all within the range off of yesterday's sport. the fix at 16. i would point out german to your yield continues to grind closer to three decimal points. that is a headline item. flattened out yesterday afternoon. that is a big deal. francine? francine: happy friday, tom. --don't do that very often concerns about brexit. citigroup is saying the brexit risks are moving east and it is the post-communist economy that would be hurt the most. european stocks gained .6%. the yen is the story. small idea,ot a francine, that the european banks that a bad day were the it was their ceo who came out and read justified unicredit's business plan. we are going to see a lot of moves on these. they are very dependent on eu subsidies. the thinking is if >> happe

yellen: certainly am. we have laid out, as has been indicated, a strategy for how we will wind down our balance sheet. we have made clear that smallerly, we want a balance sheet. and at the present time, we hold a large quantity of mortgage-backed securities, fannie and freddie, mortgage-backed securities. eventually, we would like to go back to an all-treasury portfolio, but we will do it in the manner that ben just explained. we have shown -- the move in december showed we have the tools and ability to successfully manage short-term interest rates. we moved them up not a lot, but 25 basis points. that occurred smoothly, in spite of the fact that we had this very large balance sheet. so, we have tools to tighten monetary policy as we think is appropriate for the economy. and we would like to, you know, get a little bit further underway in terms of moving short-term interest rates toward more normal levels before we let -- follow the strategy ben outlined of allowing assets to run off our balance sheets. i

it grabbed yellen's attention.kets are a little confused as to whether to be bullish about this or be bullish. >> we got more economic data ahead. this week, we crunched the house numbers. it japan's latest budget and how -- and baking policy. that is up next on "bloomberg best." ♪ ♪ alix: welcome back to "bloomberg best." i'm alix steel. you signed the real estate market is getting hotter. home prices rose in 6% in january according to the s&p index released tuesday. but the numbers came out, we have the perfect expert on hand to analyze them. >> we just broke the january numbers for the s&p schilling home index. 5.7% year onose year. for some insight, who else, cocreator of the index, mr. schiller. looking at house prices, despite what is happening, domestically in the u.s., things looking ok. is that your take? >> we were threatened, with things are looking ok. house prices are going up any number of places. that is a sign of argan optimism. >> the cities with the big gains were san francisco and portland and se

i know the president will quiz janet yellen, but if you are janet yellen, you must be looking at theuation. are they talking about elections? michael: it may come up. it is the risk of the political mill. one of the republican presidential candidates have -- one of the republican presidential candidates has been accusing janet yellen of keeping interest rate artificially low to help hillary clinton. it is coincidence that the president and the fed chair will meet at the white house following this discount rate meeting. they did meet march 7 with other financial regulators at the white house to talk about the dodd frank act and how it has been implemented. november of 2014 with the last time they had a private meeting, but it is not unusual for presidents to meet with their fed chairs. francine: because you have been following the fed for decades, you have great insight -- and i spoke to the person who correctly predicted that the yen 115, 110.h he said we may see direct market intervention on yen. would chair yellen introduce an implicit yes to that? michael: whether it is implicit o

if you look at the minutes, it is a difficult time for janet yellen.ou among his students. steve: he is great guy, i took his leadership class. out and said i was like one of his medium students. that is generous. complicated questions about economic theory. tom: a simple question and michael mckee's world, can you work in the great distortion we have been given by washington and the fed? steve: of course. who doesn't like free money? the fact that the interest rates have been so low and fueled investment in companies. some of that has benefited startups. particularly where they do not have 75% of capital. it went to new york, california, and massachusetts. some of those may be looking for other opportunities, crowdfunding, to enable that. it has been helpful. it cannot last forever, but it driving helpful investment into other security classes. some of which will be the facebooks of the third wave. francine: three over use the word "disruption?" word overuse of the disruption? is it something that should come more naturally? steve: probably. my mom do

if you are janet yellen, how do look at this?e: political uncertainty is negative for currencies. if we do have trump looking like he might win in the the election, it is fair to say the dollar would be negative. that could boost inflation in the u.s. but it could have some detrimental impact on growth pitch you might be unwilling to hike interest rates. seecome november, we could a lot more volatility. tomorrow speech on foreign policy will be interesting. in theoming up later hour, we have the political campaign down the road by the fed today. rate strategy for fixed income at nomura. how the bond market trades into the decision today. ♪ show me movies with explosions. show me more like this. show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me. x1 makes it easy to find what blows you away. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. e.t. phone home. when you find something you love, you can never get enough of it. change the way you experience tv with xfinity x1. mike: good morning. i am michael mckee in new york

our next guest says the minutes are just noise and what janet yellen wants, janet yellen will get. we'll get more unsight straight ahead. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the dow rebounding yesterday after the release of the fed minutes. now that we have more reassurance from the central bank, what's the next hurdle facing stocks? peter, main takeaway from yesterday, that we're on a dovish trend even though there's division within the ranks? >> yes, and yellen made that clear a couple weeks ago. going into the yellen speech post-fomc meeting, we had five fed presidents saying i'd like to raise rates a few times this year. one actually said, i'd like to do it three times. then yellen basically put that out and said that, i don't know if i want to raise rates anymore. we're looking at all these different things now. it's more than just inflation. it's more than just the employment data. it's all these international developments that she's worried about. but she's always worried about something. there's always uncertainty in the w

interest margins because of janet yellen. fed minutes watching financials closely.ne off the initial fed meeting. up next, cisco, j pchlt morpmor neutral to underweight. they're modeling conservative switching revenue offset by better routing and security growth and slowing u.s. growth offset by better china and india growth. you're getting paid to hold it. >> i think that's one of the biggest highest div didends out there. owens illinois. ticker oi. citigroup upgrading to buy from neutral. the analyst says the stock is poised to outperform because shares are down 35% over the past 12 months, cut guidance three consecutive quarters. citi sees prices stabilizing and like that management set the low bar for this year's guidance, easier to beat. citigroup says this is a multiyear deleveraging story. they boost their target to 19 from 15, so about 17, 18% upside. keep in mind, though, it was a $35 stock. >> all right. darden restaurants is our next stock. after the 4% decline yesterday, and lower than expected guidance, raymond james is cautious, saying the stock has a

guest: we just heard from janet yellen one week ago.he gave a big policy speech and already some parts of that are .ooking out data of -- outdated next week's retail sales report will be big. last friday, we got a very bad auto sales number for march. it contracted on the year-over-year basis for the first time since 2010. the white line shows that everything else has been doing pretty well. we will be interested to see if that carries over into march. that is a big component of the fed's outlook for the economy. is: another crucial thing where the fed sees inflation going. we have seen signs that it is taking up but no one seems ready to declare victory here that they will hit their targets. what are we looking at? guest: this is another thing janet yellen talked about in her speech, the downside risk to inflation. inflation expectations in the market and household surveys has drifted lower. you -- theshows orange line is inverted. if the number of people who say the risk to their inflation forecast tilde to the downside. we got this n

yellen: janet: i think my colleagues have covered it. thanks. [laughter] fareed: inscrutable, as is appropriate. this is an absolutely fascinating conversation. and a great great honor, for everyone here at international house and for everyone watching. thank you so much. [applause] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2016] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] washington journal, live every day. coming monday morning, we are live at the centers for disease introl and prevention atlanta, georgia as the organization marks its 70th anniversary. he to experts. dr. and shook it will discuss respiratory threats facing the u.s. and how the anti-vaxx that caused diseases to reemerge. andtalk about prevention control of diseases like ebola and to learn more about bacteria and viruses. and the director for the national center for injury prevention and equal -- prevention and control, on the latest on the heroin epidemic in the center's work t

janet yellen says the u.s. is not a bubble economy, but today we'll hear from policy members from both camps. and that could spark a volatile trading session. >>> consumer crunch. shares of gap under pressure this morning as retailer sales fall short. >>> and it's cut day in augusta. defending champion jordan spieth at the top of the leader board. it's april 8th, 2016, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. >>> a weekend of golf.

did you feel like markets reacted appropriately to a very dovish yellen?it was surprising in the direction that it went with janet yellen doubling down on the dovishness. tuple were thinking because the other central bankers had hadrmined what yellen initially said that she would be more hawkish. it was a surprise that it ended up being a positive. now there might only be one rate hike, there will not be one in april. people were thinking that now is a good time to consider back -- to continue back in socks. alix: there seems to be some kind of divergence in the language out of the bed. what is your take? -- a language coming out of the fed. you getyour take? >> different to like you would on any committee. but we will see going forward is more of a narrowing. it does seem a little too tentative. it is important to be cautious, but there is also the risk of being too tentative. metlife, winning a big victory against the u.s. government. the less labeled it too big to fail, that designation. to gete of four nonbanks that designation. they had been battling

janet yellen, congratulations. second big call that janet yellen has nailed recently, and they are both connected. the uptick and labor force precipitation and a downgrading on core cpi. for the fed to be forecasting and to be forecasting the unemployment rate to not fall, that either means that productivity has to go up or labor force participation has to go up. the fed said it would be the latter, and they were right. cpi diffusion indices, the number of subcomponents that have gone up year over year, why is this a useful way to look at inflation? this gets at the heart of what inflation is. inflation is a general rise in the price level. this shows you the components where the six month annualized rate of change is higher than the year over year, so inflation accelerating in those components. you see a notable downtick in both those recently, so inflation is less of a worried than we thought it was based on the data we have just received. it this way is a way of avoiding rent or medical care that good throw off

janet yellen set a clear signal the interestlet run. could see 2% in the tenure and higher in the long on. pace of rate cuts, i don't know if you see one this year. economy ato give the chance to accelerate and want inflation to run for a long time. i think they failed for four years. the last for your average -- for fourd run at 2.5% years. they are going to let that occur. one thing people have to start -- yellen really seems to be driving the boat with a global mandate and very dovish. in spite of a lack of real demand, i think you have to buy into this rally. i think we've got one more leg higher as people get squeezed into this. carol: i'm looking at the vix and it's up and down -- pick your indicator. i tend to watch more up one point. i don't worry too much. the thing that concerns me as it seems to be everyone's favorite hedge right now. t vix is another based on double time the vix. they've seen mass amounts of inflows which tells me people are really hedged. huge't think we will see volatility because they're such a big hedge

while you're away in frankfurt, the marks since the yellen conference a good 10 days ago. francine: yes, tom, i think they have been trying to look at the course. now let's get straight to the bloomberg first reviews. here's vonnie. >> francine, thank you so much. vonnie: they want to know just how invested the banks are. they show how the rich and powerful shell companies, greece has -- their loan has otten rockier. and credit event in greece, the managing director christine la guard told us. and a poll shows 5% want to stay in the european union and voters says undecided e more likely to maintain -- since the first time -- global military spending is on the rise. $215 billion, less than half the u.s. figure. the philippines and indonesias response reas flaps to the china's movement. and impeachment proceedings that -- are you receive's lawyers says they took out ans to state banks due to -- global news 24 hours a day pouffered by our journalists around the world. tom: and a lot of corporate news. not only the corporate america and the disney move we'll have. the tax aver

yellen: i don't think it is true. charged byare congress with regulating financial institutions and we take that mission seriously, and our tough supervisors and talk to bankers, of course, on a regular basis. required, and we have bodies like the federal that jamieuncil gorman has served on, where we meet to exchange views and understand the perspectives of bankers. but we are very focused on regulating the banking system in a way that will achieve congress' goals. chairman bernanke, can i ask you about something that i suspect if i ask janet yellen, she would be even more evasive than she has been in the last few minutes, which is of course entirely what you are supposed to do, and i respect and admire it. [laughter] about every seven years, there is a recession. that is roughly how long these recoveries last. we're about seven years since the last recovery. statistically, we are due for a recession. nobody has ever been able to predict these. the fed has not. the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally

share yellen -- chair yellen is talking for the committee, which is a different role.governors, their views matter tremendously, and it would be important for the american people to hear more from them on an ongoing basis. scarlet: we will have a former fed governor joining us in a few minutes. point, a wholer host of fed presidents will be speaking. kashkari, all speaking in the coming days. there has been ongoing criticism that all around the world there is too much reliance on monetary policy to stimulate the economy. your vote for "bloomberg view," it would help the economy if the u.s. federal government issued more debt. contrary to what everyone says, you are arguing the government is under-borrowing. how would it help the economy if there was more u.s. government debt out there? prof. kocherlakota: actually, this is not that unconventional of a position. we have very low real interest rates out there right now. that shows that there's big demand for a product the u.s. government has to offer, and that product is u.s. government debt. the counter is, the fed is t

we will see how dovish the yellen fed is. we go to michael mckee in washington, d.c. he will walk us through what those minutes had to say. in the drive fed to speak of the minutes, you can see the outlines of what was likely a contentious meeting that centered around the question of whether a rate increase would be advisable at their april meeting. in march because the minutes show many participants expressed a view the global economic and financial situation still posed appreciable downside risks to the domestic outlook. the u.s. economy had been globalnt amid the financial developments. the minutes show at least one other member of the committee was willing to raise rates in march. the minutes show that some other participants indicated an increase in the target range at the committee's next meeting might be appropriate if the incoming data remains consistent with their expectations. in march, the majority was not convinced with the number of participants judging that foreign headwinds would subside only slowly and several expressing the view that raising the targe

yellen said the u.s. is back on track for further rate hikes and that december was not a mistake. >> there's accommodation in the monetary policy that we have, but we think a gradual path of rate increases will be appropriate and will adjust depending on how our views of the economy evolve. i think we remain on a reasonable path. i don't think this december was a mistake. >> new york fed president bill dudley speaking this morning saying the path to rate hikes should be gradual. that's what he believes is appropriate. yellen saying u.s. near full employment, but still some slack. greenspan saying i don't believe a recession is what our problem is now. >> they were pretty much in unison about that, not feeling on the edge of recession. it's useful to remember to have her say december was not a mistake in response to a question reminds us of this weird place we're at. people were in december saying the market rebelled against us. it was the wrong thing to do. at the same time she's answering for why she's p

janet yellen says there has been tremendous progress.aysia tries to draw a line under it struggling state bank fund. the lapses laid at the feet of the former chief executive. do let us know what you think. follow me @rishaadtv, include #trendingbusiness. china markets getting underway and 30 minutes. juliette: good morning. we are seeing weakness coming through from u.s. markets. taiwan,, singapore, joining in that selling across the region. the nikkei 225 down 1.4%. towardshas searched that intervention trigger. japanese stocks extending falls, deepening a second weekly loss. the big selloff in commodities playing into the asx 200, down over 1%. korea being sold off, nine tens of 1%. u.s. stocks sank to six-week lows yesterday. we saw banking stocks coming under pressure after comments by janet yellen. basic materials leading the region lower, down by 1.2% at the moment. ,ome of the big movers particularly in japan. honda recalled 143,000 vehicles byjapan, and airbags made daicel failed to deploy. fast retailing down almost 10% after i

yellen: i would say the u.s. economy has made tremendous progress in recovering from the damage from the financial crisis , slowly but surely the labor market is healing. for well over a year we have averaged about 225,000 jobs a month. the unemployment rate now stands at 5%, so we are coming close to our assigned congressional goal of maximum employment. this inalking about addition to doug ramsey, we also have dean maki, joining us from stamford, connecticut. i want to start with you, please, dean. the question for me is, can you growth inhe employment that we are seeing when corporate profits are going down? well, i think it is a challenge because obviously profits are the lifeline of companies. are likely to see continued employment growth because some of the things that are dragging corporate profits down, like declining commodity prices, are going to be somewhat temporary. the declines do seem to have stopped. if that is the case, corporate profits should stabilize as well. jon: anyone with a 30 year fixed

matt: the market thinks yellen is dead set against a move. we have headlines coming across the bloomberg terminal. she says we don't need to look for all the data points to lead a person great -- line up perfectly. piece ofg until every data lines up in the correct weight means waiting too long and risks having the race move up more aggressively in the future with negative impacts on the economy. for stalling rate increases for to lock in light of financial market volatility that does not affect the outlook may simply affect more volatility in the future if we find ourselves having to increase rates more aggressively than anticipated to achieve our goals. matt: president of the federal reserve bank of cleveland. that is the most recent hawkish note we have heard from that governors. we have heard a lot from others as well. maybe the market thinks yellen is so dovish she will not let anyone voice a hawkish opinion. michael: you heard that earlier this week. i think what happened in the march fomc was hugely instructive about the fed taking in

you mentioned janet yellen being the person who presided over the first rate hike.f and when is that next rate hike coming? that's on minds of those in the market here? >> fed chair yellen has been dovish but i don't think that the fed has ruled out increases for 2016. you saw markets sort of write off this possibility for a while earlier this year. but you've heard a lot of the more dovish people in the committee, people who even more dovish than janet yellen say, maybe you've gone too far. two rate hikes sounds about right to me. that's important to note. >> good to see you again, as always. thank you. >> thank you. >> from the "washington post," joining us from d.c. let's get to our closing bell exchange for this monday. jason pride, from glenn meade and keith bliss cuttone and company and rick santelli from chicago. keith, here come the earnings, starting with alcoa and opec meeting next week. what are your expectations and janet yellen talking to the president right now. >> a lot of people being dazed and confused, that's what i expect out of all of the stuff c

most dovish yellen at 2.9.peeches and remarks since desiccate a possible widening in the views on monetary policy. steve leisman, cnbc business news. >> there is a sense of urgency. deuceal bloom. after a summit originally planned for today was canceled due to lack of progress in talks with athens. the sticking point while the greek business legislation which would set out contingency measures should things get off track. you have trying to get talks together. so you don't have a sense of failure on the very last round. you have been covering this a long time. >> i have. i can tell you what we're seeing at this precise moment is an agreement on 3% worth of gdp of --. that is the package. they want an additional 2% leeway so if they get their budget offtrack they have these additional measures they can then support and try and backstop what is going on in grea greece. the problem is such a slim majority, it is passing those measures back in parliament. and of course you know this is what the imf has pushed for a

tom: janet yellen on april 27. right now, here is nejra cehic.elgium, authorities have charged two were men with offenses related to the brussels bombing. prosecutors say both were involved in renting a brussels apartment. third as a hideout. attack.ms died in the the same day a pair of suicide bombers killed 16 others at brussels airport. dilma rousseff has been pushed a step closer to impeachment after a committee in the house footed for her to go. reached aian real seven-month high on news that she would be ousted. the chances of a repeat election in spain are increasing, this after the anti-austerity policy, -- the move pours cold water on the best shot for an administration almost four months after an inconclusive ballot. it is likely to be confirmed this week. a group of seven nations should stop hiking territorial disputes in territorial waters and focusing on the economy. and one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. g7 phone ministers have raised concerns over tensions in the east, in the south china sea. global news 24 hours a day, pow

i think janet yellen is saying exactly right thing, what she needs to say.ng? why are they saying what they're saying? larry, are you supporting donald trump? >> i have not endorsed anyone. >> because i -- don't you think the kind of -- that kind of talk about the fed is irresponsible? >> i wouldn't do it. but i'm not running for president. >> that sounded like -- it is not my style. it is not even a matter of style. it is a matter of responsibility. >> trump is a clever man, a good businessman. i'm not going to second guess him. >> they're not opinions. but the front-runners for the republican party who are denigrating the fed, talking about, you know, even getting rid of the fed. this is ludicrous talk and dangerous talk. >> i will say this, i believe sincerely the fed should be reformed. we were talking about that earlier with steve liesman. i think you need to reform the economic models as sully pointed out. they need to reform the whole modus operandi. it needs reform. i do think republicans have, for many years, been way too hawkish about the fear of i

it's all on janet yellen's shoulder. she's trying to some extent to balance that out.he's doing it incorrectly to the extent that interest rates are low or negative in some countries. that has negative implications for job growth. cutbacks day by day. they can't generate the same profitability. insurance companies, pension funds, even the household saver is affected. america's, it's too conceptual ideas. on the samestock model. is there anything in this report that should dissuade yellen from a moving come june? >> the dissenters and there are a few of them, evans and they wouldd pollard, point to wage growth as a forntial down the road june. i think several of them suggested that two moves in 2016 are what we should expect. they are data dependent. it's up to the global situation. thinking, they have to normalize interest rates or else. they have an opportunity in terms of 200,000 plus jobs. it looks like a likely month to do one of those hikes. that was tom keene. still ahead, a friday edition. i face-off with the senior markets corresponded julie hyman. we are going

will have him on the show, andrewmer yellen advisor 11. of seems like a middle path between the way the current fed is and a lot of critics want to reform in terms of auditing the fed. they are proposing to make it more transparent. make the ownership structure more clear. bid -- hybrid public-private entity right now. that makes sense, certainly an election year. i know we get a couple of different reports. it is pretty widely accepted that of the two mandate the fed has, the inflation one is dicier. measures by lots of different ways. that trend continues with the cpi report and it will be harder for them to say they are hauling behind. carol: this economy has evolved and changed dramatically. >> at any given time, people are always able to point to their favorite measure. look at rent in new york city for health care. or look at the gas prices. right now you can slice inflation in a lot of different ways. be going theto same direction. retail sales are keeping the economy going. you have to care about retail sales. how can you not? the

of janetfew words out yellen yellen a little over a week ago.lutely right. , theg out of the meeting markets took it as a rather dovish commentary. we were immediately followed the week after by a number of governors who were talking rather hawkish lee. that spooked investors. of at a little bit reprieve and a greater sense of confidence that they won't be in a rush to raise rates during the course of the year. carol: since the mid-february low, quite a bounce. are we overbought, in your view? aic: we really seem to be in middling type environment. certainly, our view was, as we were coming out of january, that we were not in the midst of a recession or there was not an in the unitedsion states. we had the lows put in in february as you mentioned, particularly in commodities. with a lot of the language out of the central bankers, we have also seen a reprieve as far as what had been a rather steady headwind for corporate's in the form of a stronger dollar. the dollar has been down on a year-to-year basis. that certainly has been helpful in proppi

francine: as long as janet yellen does not raise rates. i got this chart made. me a long time. this basically benchmarks the -- compared to the currency. the rupueeee. it could be used in almost any emerging market. simon: the story within that is you start to make a point about currency performers and equity market performers. if you like they are opposites. currency strength comes to stock market weakness and vice versa. that has been one of the fundamental issues for so many nations. it is not just emerging markets. thek at where worst-performing major markets have been over the course of the last few months. going back to japan and switzerland and eruope. it is a currency game -- going back to japan and switzerland and europe. francine: you have to stick around. tesla next. lon musk says it will change the world. a closer look at the model 3 next. ♪ francine: let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: thanks. nbang has walked away from a proposed takeover of starwood hotels. clearing the way for a purchase by marriott. cited various market co

janet yellen has said she is going to err on the side of caution. is concerned aboute she is concerned global developments. michael: they have not been that bad. markets have settled down, at least until this week. we saw a hit to trade balance question isut the what happens in the global economy. that will take time to play out. not see a lotll of investor reaction in terms of pricing in the next fed move minutes.ay's francine: thank you. great to have you on the program. you can follow michael on tv and on twitter. he has a great twitter feed. stay with bloomberg. "bloomberg surveillance" is up next. we will bring you our interview with the swiss national bank's president. it is interesting to follow his comments. we see a big movement on yen. it is going to be quite difficult for you to move your currency. let's see what central banks throw at these two currencies. european stocks advancing. oil gaining. surveillance is up next. ♪ francine: a mega merminger al ks down, and feedser and abegan scrap plans. and frontrunners falter. the primary's fro

chair yellen: i think my colleagues have covered it. fareed: inscrutable, as is appropriate. this is an absolutely fascinating conversation and a great honor for all of us, for international house, for everyone here, for everyone watching. thank you so much. >> [applause] mark: you have been watching an extraordinary conference at the international house you're in new york. reads a car you -- farid zakaria zakaria, he was the host of this fascinating conversation between janet yellen, ben bernanke, paul volcker, and alan greenspan. an economist at bank of tokyo mitsubishiaseen joining me for the hour. almost totaln silence. this was a fascinating conversation. what stood out for you? >> there's really nothing like it that i can think. it was supposed to be more on leadership of the various fed chairmen from years past and not about interest rates, but there was an awful lot there about current monetary policy. i felt one of the interesting questions was asked, why don't you do more? why don't you overshoot inflation? why don't you help boost wages in the economy, for instance

it was a fundamental view on yellen.she has been extremely dovish edit seems as if she has created an extremely high hurdle to actually see two or more hikes. for everyone.r we have been saying four hikes. the fundamental backdrop continues to support the idea of hikes this year but i think given yellen's dovishness toward the global backdrop -- backdrop, think it will be difficult to see more than two. we were basically forced to cut our view. alix: you have argued the fed has met its mandate. the jobless rate right around the long-term estimate as well. does the lack of willingness to raise rates again mean it has adopted a new mandate? how would you describe the mandate? >> it is reasonable to make the argument that in the context, as you rightly outlined our view, you are already north of the forecast for inflation this year. toward well underway long-term forecasts on the unemployment rate, if we were truly following the tenants of the dual mandate, then yes, it would seem the removal of the accommodation at this po

the fed janet yellen -- people talk to one strategist to raise rates.rview with exelon ceo chris crane. he will tell us what m&a opportunities he season never noble energy's. unforgettable 2015, some bond managers had made a stunning turnaround. we will take have a did it. to head over to the markets desk where julie hyman has been checking the waffling in u.s. stocks. julie: it is a stall. that is what it feels like after making the highs from the year. all three major averages not doing that well. i want to focus on individual movers. bestd life sciences is the performer climbing 19%. this is after a presentation after the american cardiology annual meeting. edward's newest the valve is implanted through a catheter and allows patients to avoid open-heart surgery. it has a lower rate of death in surgery. this opens up a new market for edward. that accounts for the big surge we are seeing in shares. also surging, shares of southwestern energy. this is a stock that has been very volatile a lot of energy prices. the company is borrowing all of its existin

volcker,you could ask greenspan, bernanke and yellen one question, what would it be?: i would love to understand the relevance of u.s. data. we are talking about the shift in stance from december, they were talking about four interest rate hikes. now the only thing that's happened is the condition for integrates -- interest rate hikes have improved. it's very clear that the u.s. is looking at international conditions right now. and regardless of how good u.s. data is, the key is going to be can we see financial markets stabilize? richard, do you think they should stop saying to dependent? -- data dependent? that was ast week, strong set of data. the six-month averages around 235,000. it was a slight increase in the implement rate, partially offset by an increase in the participation rate. these are good numbers, head of forecast. we are not seeing traders adjust their excitation as regards to u.s. interest-rate hikes as a result. for the moment, it's also case of however from the date is, until we see a shift in tone from janet yellen and the fed, we are unlikely to s

also, donald trump and janet yellen? next. everything autosyncs.hose sales prove my sustainable designs are better for the environment and my bottom line. that's how i own it. we shouldn't sweatlife, the small stuff. but when you're building a mercedes-benz, there really is no small stuff. every decision... every component... is an integral part of what makes the 2016 c-class one of our most sophisticated cars ever. because when you're setting a new benchmark for refinement, it is the small stuff... that makes the biggest impression. the 2016 c-class. see your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. charles: time for a market check. did you see the close? that was a sharp hair cut, we did close higher, but dow rally was sawed in half at 3:00. when smart money usually sells. right now that market made a rebound, seeing it more with individual names, with this earnings seen there are hoops that companies must jump through, when they report their numbers. margins better be moving in the right direct, and more

yellen, as a chairperson, encourages that kind of dialogue. she really does that. think it is often confusing in the marketplaces, it adds .ignificant uncertainty i think overall, she is cautious, watching and develop internationally, and that is going to be the dominant force in her policy-setting action. that is what they are focusing on and that is what will define their rate. manus: what will spin this? if we look at wrip, december is a 53%. what would it take to spin the odds, to change the dynamic? saidt of the 17 on the fed the risk of inflation is tilted to the downside. the risk on the five-year, five-year is tilted to the downside. first of all, oil is a big piece of the story. the fact that it is not increasing significantly creates downside pressure on inflation. number two, i think the data coming out of china is a huge, important mover and whether the fed's expectation changes. if we start seeing stabilization and improvement, i think expectations will ramp up very quickly. we think that the international backdrop of growth is going to be very low for

janet yellen back it up in the press conference in march. there are a couple of things they are looking for. any easing in terms of the fed language around the risks, particularly global risks. they can be elevated, just not quite as much as before. it's unlikely they will return to a balanced statement of risk like they had last year. tracy: this is what everyone is looking for because this was the legacies before the december rate hike. michael: given the changes in the summary projections in march it seems a quick switch back to a set of risks. we might get a little bit more optimism on the inflation outlook. we have seen the dollar weekend and oil prices rebound. these are two things they cited to think inflation may persist and remain at low lovers -- levels longer. back in october the fed gave a pretty strong heads up that my coumadin december -- they might do it in december. david: if you look at it here over the last month only have these last few fed meetings we saw an uptick in that. kim accusative talk about the economic condition

yellen, bernanke, greenspan and volcker. we will bring you the highlights. >>> also the panama papers have been out for just a week and they have already taken their toll on world leaders. but this is only the start of a growing trend. data dumps that embarrass the wealthy and powerful. we will tell you where it will go next. >>> finally, we will teach you how to sleep, not while watching the show of course. arianna huffington has a new book out that she hopes will have you snoring. again not now, but i'll let her explain. >>> but first, here's my take. in an interview during the 2008 campaign, barack obama explained that ronald reagan had changed the trajectory of america in a way that richard nixon and bill clinton had not. clearly, obama aspired to be a transformational president like reagan. at this point, it's fair to say that he has succeeded. look at what's happened during his tenure to the country, his party and most telling, the opposition. the first line in obama's biography would have to do with who he is, the fir

janet yellen is right, it won't be going up dramatically.hink that we may be having that conversation next year, certainly not today. >> i continue to think the federal rates go up. i think they'll race rates in june. by the end of the year, a fed returned's rate 1%, a treasury 3%. around 2 or wait 5.4% of a wake high. on the program, it is 6:26 in london, the mass market with its new affordable see dan, the if they s in chol what ell under wards and we'll talk about that next. ♪ ♪ anna: welcome back. this is "countdown." let's get the bloomberg first word news. >> thank you. china's manufacturing gauge has jumped, showing improving conditions for the first time in eight months. the purchasing managers index rose to 50.2 in march ahead of a median estimate of 49.4 it suggests the government fiscal and monetary stimulus is kicking in. sentiment among japan's manufacturers has dropped to the lowest level since mid-2013 as the stronger yen risks eroding company profits. the index of confidence among large manufacturers declining from 12 three m