yellen. watch it. >> we for a big, fat, ugly bubble, and we better be awfully careful, and we have a fed that's doing political things. janet yellen of the fed, the fed is doing political by keeping the interest rates at this level and believe me, the day obama goes off, and he leaves and goes out to the golf course for the rest of his life to play golf, when they raise interest rates, you're going to see very bad things happen because the fed is not doing their job. the fed is being more political than secretary clinton. trish: and i would just argue that the fed has always been late to the party, right? they need to see many quarters of economic growth before it finally dawns on them they need to raise rates. so why now are they early? is it politically motivated? joining me veemo private bank, and steve cortes, adviser to donald trump on the campaign trail and our very own nicole petallides at the stock exchange. steve, start with you, i'm no fan of low rates and my fear of a low interest

he could conceivably appoint janet yellen -- >> to reappoint chair yellen?which would be a reasonable thing to do. she is competent and has done a good job and has the confidence of the markets. whoever is appointed, i'm sure will work carefully with the rest of the fomc. there is a reason why there are so many people on the federal market committee making those decisions, including seven members of the board, and high quality staff, which provides a lot of guidance. idol think we are quite in the 1928 situation, by any means -- i don't think we are quite in the 1928 situation, by any means. i am hopeful if they don't appoint janet yellen, they will appoint some but a strong and confident. >> there was a sharp debate within the business media, and economics as well, if i pick gary cohn within the trump administration. you need to have a phd in economics? >> i think it would be presumptuous to say that. paul welker does not have a phd. he was familiar with the fed and monetary policy and obviously, knew markets. bute is a range of skills, you have to be at le

janet yellenpresident are in -- present. and thank you so much for being with us. we talked about the french election. talk to me about the upward trend for growth worldwide. jean-claude: i think it the global level as it was said in the last meeting of the foreign bank, things seem to go in the right reaction. it is global. as regards the united states, we will see what happens. arelast indicator is we disappointing. it doesn't seem to signal something with low growth. the fed was really optimistic on the median term for the u.s. goals. in europe, we are in a situation that is more favorable than before. there is time is him which is clear -- dynamism which is clear. the first quarter is confirming that. i expect that we will continue on that basis. we are two years late on the united states business cycle because of our own major difficulty with the sovereign risk. confident that we will grow. we have a lot of unemployment. tom: what is the biggest risk to all of this? francine: what about china

i think janet yellen would like to leave, assuming she does leave, with a plan in place.the new fed chair, throw away that plan and start on something else? i don't think so. i don't think it's that important. and unless the new fed chair is a fool, he or she will not want to throw the markets into a tizzy for no good reason at all. plannk the balance sheet that is left to her successor is very likely to be acted upon. the interest rate path is a whole different thing and will depend on the evolution of the economy. we all know that our ability to forecast that one to three years in advance is pretty limited. that suggest the bank presidents will take on additional responsibilities? >> it's not as concentrated as it is now. the chair, the vice chair. they will still be there. the you get from president's different from the governor's is more dissent. it's not that they changed the decision. it is less reluctant. i imagine that will continue to be true. my: thank you for joining us today. we have been talking to leaders in beverly hills, california. erik schatzker is stand

yellen made the comments in a speech at her alma mater, brown university.ed the gap between the number of men and women in the labor force, saying the disparity is likely due to a lack of equal opportunity for women and the challenges of combining work and family. 75% of women work today compared to 88% of men. yellen is the first woman to lead the federal reserve. >> music streaming giant pandora hosted the cinco de mayo mayo my today. this event didn't have margaritas or mar iac hi music. it is the state of latinos since the election. increasing hostility toward latinos who they say have been criminalized by the trump administration. >> not just the onslaught on undocumented immigrants that were seen, but it's a complete attack on the narrative of who latinos are in this country. and i think people are angry about that, that they're being talked about in ways that are untrue. >> latino activists say the attacks have galvanized hispanics. in california, half of the 2 million new voters in the last election were latinos. >> now a story we brought you last n

it is a goal that could be messier than janet yellen hoekstra joining us is -- than janet yellen hopes. joining us is michael mckee. they have had plenty of time to think about how to do this. does notthe fed it control everything it is going to do. it has treasuries and mortgage securities and corporate securities, if you start messing around with the amount of ,ortgage securities out there you will change the value of the securities and that will affect mortgage rates could when you change markets rates, you get different rights of -- when you change mortgage rates, you get different rates of repayment. the fed is not have total control over that. they cannot predict what will happen because they don't know where they will go from here. the treasury market depends not just on the fed, but overseas investors constantly react to news of the haven trade with money flowing in and out. and the u.s. treasury has to that thehe treasury fed is no longer buying it if they got rid of them all the your it would be $400 billion worth. the treasury has to decide how it is going to handle that cou

tom: chair yellen does focus on this labor report.oes she need to focus on a usual month-to-month and quarter to quarter way? or does she need to focus away from the job's report? bill: i think she needs to focus away. there has been a number of report supporting -- a number of these douggesting that strange things as they punch through. i do not think other central banks focus on it enough. the fact that will interest rates keep zombie corporations alive, and that feeds into your question for productivity. the fact that low interest rates destroy very productive business models, like insurance companies and pension funds and savings in general. model-driven type of institution and their models are outdated. they need to get into the future as opposed to come back from the past. tom: we have to go through the market dynamics. i want to go right to the research chase going on in the last 48 hours. would you presume commodity dynamic that we have seen, and the worries about china, which are always there, fold right back to a central-ban

up, chair yellen has a plan to unwind a $4.5 trillion balance sheet. the u.s.conomy's first quarter was not so miserable after all but a big upward revision fails to shake treasuries. opec, whatever it takes falls on deaf ears. with a big issue, chair yellen's campaign to make the fed boring again. >> predictable, slow, and as boring as possible. noted that market participants had anticipated their expectation of balance sheet reduction but that the market has been able to absorb that. there is a comfort that there won't be a reinvestment taper tantrum. knows how to calibrate interest rate increases and their effects on the economy. no one knows how to calibrate a billion dollars of balance sheet reductions. what impact does that have on the economy? tois the fed back to trying make markets feel comfortable again? were they shaken by last wednesday's selloff so much that we are back to the old fed, or will they tried to lead markets? jonathan: joining me around the table is greg peters, bonnie and in st. louis we have brian railing -- brian rehling. brian, i wa

yeah, exactly, and is this something janet yellen needs to worry about it all? is even really mandated with spending time on this? diane: doesn't matter whether she is mandated or not. this is something janet yellen has made clear is one of her goals for a long time. she is a labor economist, a veteran of the 1990's that she has gone against hawks within the federal reserve, saying, listen, if we went a little hot, we could reengage those workers. you are seeing a loss of hope on that side of it. what happened in the 1990's was as we read the unemployment rate down, we really did engage workers who otherwise would not have been employed. you almost only needed a pulse by 1999 and early 2000 to get a job. that is not the case today. there is other alternatives in automation. what is full employment anymore? that is something that is going to hunt all of us unless we have real policy changes in fiscal policy. there's only so much the federal reserve can do and her jewels are very limited. -- virtual about it -- her jewels are limited. vonnie: is there anything com

charming fede been chair janet yellen. just saw janet yellen lockout, they are getting her car ready for now. we have a number of other important people walking out as well, the french finance ministers, and we have seen steve mnuchin's car. very interesting to me as a car guy, he has a toyota land cruiser and a chevy tahoe here. he rides in the toyota, not in the chevy, which i thought was very touching. there comes the treasury -- i thought that was very interesting. there comes a treasury secretary now. very interesting today. he has been meeting with the german finance minister, he has been meeting the chancellor of the us check or -- the chancellor of the exchequer. we have a bloomberg reporter down there to talk to him as well, and we have double-teamed the g7 meeting here in bari, italy. here,s a lot going on talking trade, which initially was supposed to be off the agenda, they weren't supposed to focus on that. but also talking a lot about greece and intra-european issues as well as global growth, very important a

he could reappoint janet yellen.s perspective a reasonable, sensible thing to do. she has the confidence of the markets. sureer is appointed i am will work carefully with the rest of the department. there is a reason there are so many people on the committee making the decisions, including seven members of the board, and a high quality staff which provides guidance and help. we are not quite in the 1928 situation. i am hopeful they will appoint, if not janet yellen, somebody strong and competent. ♪ julie: welcome back. foras been another big week corporate earnings reports across the globe. our roundup begins in silicon valley with results from facebook. are downok shares after reporting earnings that missed expectations. the social network now has $1.94 -- 1.9 4 billion active users. mobile ads accounted for 85% of revenue, thanks in part to instagram's rapid growth. instagram is an important platform, along with facebook. we are seeing strong growth across those. >> those are incredible numbers. every quarter it se

chair janet yellen will not hold a news conference.ever policymakers discuss behind the closed doors, and here i'm thinking about the idea of winding down the balance sheet or trying to figure out how they are going to do that, we will only learn in three weeks when the minutes of this meeting are released to the public. tom: let's do a data check right now. a relatively quiet day. oil really front and center. not for any news having to do with the fed. dollar index pretty much where it was earlier. 4762, and that has given up a bit of a bid here in the last two or three hours. the vix with that nine-print. earlier this week we spoke to ben bernanke about the complacency that is out there. you see it in the vix, and curve flattening. the 210 spread moves the decimal point over, the difference between the 10-year and the two-year is 1.01 percentage points. that is a flatter yield curve than we have seen over the last three weeks or so. scarlet? pimco's let's bring an global strategic advisor, here with us as well, the chief investment o

janet yellen's term and next year.ready making a list of who might replace her if she steps down. down with ay he sat correspondent to discuss the fate of the u.s. economy. weakthink the economy was in the first quarter, but is picking up. i think a lot of people expected that. i would like to see higher growth. growth has been not so good. the main thing is to increase growth down the road. >> we have relatively low interest rates. janet yellen has preferred relatively low interest rate. if the president is looking for monetary policy, he may not want to change. change in thes a way the fed operates, that was an underlying theme to the conference. how the federal reserve goes about its policy. let me ask you about that. the balance sheet, do you think a, it worked, and the fed should continue with a relatively large value sheet and excess reserves and reposts, or a small balance sheet and target the federal funds rate? >> i have been skeptical about quantitative easing impact. i argued a more normal policy earlier wou

he could reappoint janet yellen.rtainly be from his perspective a reasonable, sensible thing to do. he is highly competent, she has done a good job, she has the confidence of the markets. but whoever is appointed, i'm sure, will certainly were carefully with the rest of the fomc. there is a reason why there are so many people on the federal market committee making those decisions, including seven members of the board. and high-quality staff that provides a lot of guidance and help. we are not quite in a 1928 situation. i'm very hopeful they will appoint if not janet yellen somebody strong and confident. ♪ ♪ julie: welcome back. i'm julie hyman. to spend a big week for corporate earnings reports around the world. we begin with silicon valley and results from facebook. >> facebook shares are down after reporting earnings that missed expectations that revenue -- but revenue that topped estimates. they have 1.94 billion monthly active users, up from 1.8 billion last quarter. another they contributed to overall revenue is

we start with a big issue, chair yellen's campaign to make the fed boring again.

yellen isatt: janet here. we saw her come out of the hotel last night. it will be interesting to see if she sits with steve mnuchin, and how those two get along. do you expect the imagination to have any influence on said policy?i know they got guard their independence usually. mark: obviously, they are not meant to have any influence. i think that will be the official line. when of the big things that is adjusting thing about this last year was that trump was quite critical of janet yellen on the campaign trail, but that was more a political ploy. always said he wants low interest rates, even before he came to power. he has always been a fan of ebt, and hefan of d has come out since then saying he wants a weaker dollar. even if janet yellen does not continue on, they will probably go for someone who tends to be dovish in favor of lower rates, because it fits with the trump policy. chart onulled up this the bloomberg. u.s. households not expected to ramp up purchases. consumers are tightening their belts in the united states. to what extent is this seen

chair yellen?which would be a reasonable, sensible thing to do. she is highly competent, has done a good job, has the confidence of the markets. whoever is appointed, i am sure will certainly work carefully with the rest of the fomc. there is a reason why there are so many people on the federal market committee making those decisions including seven members of the board, and that high quality staff, which provides a lot of guidance and help. i do not think we are quite in the 1928 situation by any means. i am of course very hopeful that they will appoints, if not jenny yellen, they will appoint somebody strong and competent. debatein that is a sharp within the business media, and i would suggest in economics as well. i'm going to pick on gary cohn of the trump administration. with great respect for mr. cohen 's abilities. do you need to be a frontline academic to take the job?he was very ben: familiar with monetary policy and the fed. he obviously knew markets well. i think there is a range of skil

we start with a big issue, chair yellen's campaign to make the

off an upset.lls chairman to replace janet yellen at the central bank.ark: disney's guardians of the set offo is set to cros the summer box office. we will take a look at the eagerly anticipated sequel. have a look at where european equities are right now. we are 30 minutes away from the end of the friday session. stocks are rising today. we are at the highest level since august 2015. second weekly gain, for weekly gain in five. all these currencies are rising against the dollar today. the ones in green. and creditodities, default swaps are your final column. let's get to your earnings. iag boosting profits that are than estimated. 9.7%. that is a traditionally sluggish first quarter. gainyear earnings set to as the man on pricing for long-haul routes surging. the brexit vote last june had less of an impact on traffic than the company anticipated with demand gaining. and aer lingus of ireland, discount specialists. risk reversal dropping ahead of the french election. it did the same ahead of the first round. options to one week buy the euro against the d

with a big issue, chair yellen's campaign

we start with a big issue, chair yellen's campaign to make the fed boring again.

janet yellen's term is up next february.e see an extrader like cohn leave the fed? >> it would be an interesting thing, it's not required to have an academic background around he's done a good job at goldman sachs. i guess my sense is that since his background is more in markets than monetary policy that i think initially he would be very, very interested and working closely with the fed staff. i think sara and david it's important that yellen if she indeed is not reappointed it's important that yellen have the balance sheet wind down, basically worked out. so the new federal chair whoever he or she is is not finding out that difficult process. i think we'll learn more in june. >> what are your expectations in europe in terms of draghi and what we'll see there? you see the emerging marketing being attractive, but is over yields over in europe are still negative to a large extent. >> you know, david, you read our mind on that. europe has really benefited from the tail wind. the data has been strong. they grew faster in the u.

oliver: and tricking the fed balance sheet may not be as easy as janet yellen hopes. look at the potential hazards as the fomc that's set to meet tomorrow. let's check markets with abigail doolittle, where we have another

that's according to federal reserve chair janet yellen.e labor market is almost 15% lower than men. janet yellen said in the speech friday, better policies can break down those barriers that women face to take on full-time careers or to stay in them. two examples she gave -- expanded parental leave and more affordable child care. and i will tell you, it's very rare to hear a fed chief speak so frankly about what's holding women back in the workplace, and, frankly, how that holds back the american economy. >>> speaking of working women, actress maggie siff, she stars in showtime's "billions," a powerful woman in a fictional hedge fund world, where for her character, at least, it's remarkable, there is no glass ceiling. and like many women, in real life, she tells me the art of work and the art of motherhood overlap. >> i talk about like privilege. i had just come off of a tv show i had been on for six years, "sons of anarchy." so i was able to grant myself time, you know. i was like, i put in a lot of time, i earned some money, i and that j

he could conceivably reappoint janet yellen, which from his be a verye would reasonable, sensible thingo do. she's highly competent, she's done a good job, she's got the confidence in the markets. i'm sures appointed, will work carefully with the rest of the fomc. there arereason why so many people on the federal market committee making these decisions, including seven members of the board, and high-quality staff which provides a lot of guidance and help. i don't think we are quite in the 1928 situation by any means. i'm hopeful that they will appoint, if not janet yellen, they will appoint somebody strong and competent. tom: within that is a sharp debate in the business community. if you vet -- i will pick on gary cohn of the trump administration with great respect for mr. cohn's ability. do you need to have a phd in economics? paul volcker does not have a phd. he was very familiar with monetary policy and the fed, having been in the system for a number of years. i think is a range of skills you can have. you also have to be at least familiar with monetary policy, and how it works, and

we know it's kind of in-between meeting because we are not hearing from yellen. it was a unanimous decision. we are getting more transparency going forward about what the path of rates will be so it's just another factor to put in and i have to say, i don't think it's going to be a boring slow summer. i think there's a lot more news. we have all the european applications coming. that'll be a huge factor. cheryl: viva la france. that was great. thank you very much for that coverage, brian, jack, steve, lori, of course bringing us the decision from the fed. thank you, guys. we do want to turn it -- we already turned it to politics, white house press secretary sean spicer will be speaking any minute now. we do expect him to address a number of topics today including the republican healthcare bill which is showing some new signs of hope today after representative fred upton introduced an amendment that will help people with preexisting conditions. that's been the big sticking point in the gop. also we expect spicer to answer questions on the spending bill which the h

willie chaos in washington throw chair yellen off?hought one impeachment in brazil was dramatic, markets brace for two in a row. we start with wall street. >> ultimately, you want to have a functioning washington. we are still the most important government and economy in the world. if that comes to a screeching halt, that is not good for anyone. >> that is the thing we have to gain. people need confidence that this administration can deliver. >> if he wants to keep everybody happy, he has to do real policy stuff, not just tweet. >> this trump trade we have all embraced has driven markets to new highs in equities is coming to an end. >> the trump trade is great for newsrooms and like reality tv playing out in politics, and reality tv has a short-term nature in terms of politics. i think investors will take this in stride. jonathan: joining me for the next three minutes is matthew hornbach, morgan stanley, lisa abramowicz of bloomberg radio, and james barrineau of schroder investment. , i want to begin with you. how much of the trump el

janet yellen toyed with that idea.cause shifts and make sure the recovery sustainable because it is in no one's interest if we have a bull, which is not sustainable, and we end up with severe bubbles, and even deeper recession, perhaps like last time. jonathan: steve, is it sustainable a 2.2%? what are the chances? steve: very close to zero. if you look at the productivity numbers of yesterday, maybe you get 1% labor growth, that is what we are sitting at 2%. to 3%, but your boring from the future and potentially risking higher interest rates and inflation. get to 3%, and we should be optimistic about trying, you have to address fundamental problems. tell the you try to electorate that 2% is the best we can do, and that is not a great message to send to the alleged threat. beyond that, if you are a politician, what is your incentive to deliver the kind of reforms that may take a decade to see the fruits of that labor. what is the incentive for him to do that? >> you can try adjusting the economy, but even in the short

is your success at the margin due to janet yellen?on of interest rates, does that skewed money-management towards the passive space? if we get through rate normalization, it is not game over but at the margin, does it skew back to active management? mr. mcnabb: i put that -- i've heard that argument put forth. the data doesn't support it. look at equity world. the returns on individual stocks are at a normal level so there is still opportunity to make the right bets or the wrong that's if you are an active manager. if you look at fixed income, the distortions that have occurred because of fed policy actually ine helped active management the bond side. you see better performance on a relative basis by active bond managers then we have seen at other times in history. of rates normalization will actually help the low-cost argument even more in the future. tom: this is probably in john bogle thesis a million years ago. let me ask you. is there something that's is there such a thing as too much money in passive management? can there be a d

we start with a big issue, chair yellen's campaign to make the fed boring again.

option one is, gosh, let's not take any chances, let's in effect appoint yellen or someone like yellen real, real, real slow. low interest rates are good, a weak dollar is good, there we go. that's option one. now, option two, which has also a lot of supporters, takes a small little look at economic history. if you actually get growth accelerating, you would think it would be a slam dunk for a president. again, this is someone from the president's perspective. but what kills a president is acceleration of inflation. if we go into the 2020 elections with 5 or 6% inflation, which is not inconceivable if growth gets going, he's going to lose. so if you look forward and you say, you know, you don't go to where the hockey puck is now, you go to where the hockey puck is going to go when you get there, i.e. 2020, you want someone very different from the first model. you want someone who is, shall we say, more orthodox in their thinking. and once the president makes up his mind on that threshold choice, you know, there's people on both sides of that. and we'll see. >> marty, this morning in th

that's according to federal reserve chairman janet yellen.n. yellen said friday that better policies can breakdown the barriers women face to take on full-time careers or stay in them. two examples. expand leave time and child care. rare to hear a fed chief. >>> maggie siff stars in "bi "billi "billions." her character has no glass ceiling. like many women in real life, she tells me the arc of work and motherhood overlap. >> i talk about privilege and i just come off the show i had been on for six years. "sons of anarchy." i granted myself time. i efrarned money. i seam i saved money. i didn't have to go back to work right away. that felt like a gift. then once i had my child, i said i don't want to go back to work. i was waiting for something that made me feel like right. made me feel part of myself again. >> the interview is online. thanks for joining us. i'm christine romans. >> i'm dave briggs. "new day" starts right now. >>> there are so many questions here as to who knew what when. >> the investigation into russia's role into the 2016 e

yellen will actually leave the fed in february of next air.orld trade still remains pretty weak. .t is still recovering we live in a world of small numbers. it's really we growth. manus: the one thing that makes me stand back about it is that the pboc may possibly travel in but thatnt direction, would take an extreme set of data to create that circumstance, wouldn't it? david: it would, yes. data, but china remains very much a black box, they are trying to rebound the economy. who knows? at the moment, the general story is one of reflation happening were globally but we will have to watch the space. manus: the global economy will continue to recover. that would bolster china's manufacturing. -- you have taught to change and go with the news. david, stay with us. we get lessons every day on daybreak. david owens is the international chief economist over at jefferies. inflation data for the eurozone as a whole. the primemp host minister vietnam today. and rate decision from brazil. theresa may's conservative party suffers a setback. the latest p

fed officials will update their economic projections and chair janet yellen will hold a press conferenceexplain the decision. michael mckee, bloomberg, new york. anna: joining us in london is a senior investment manager at aberdeen asset management. let's digest what we heard from the fed yesterday. the first line of one of our stories, the u.s. job market is hot, inflation is not. that's clearly where the confusion lies. about this chart for you on the bloomberg. it shows the clear path we've but for unemployment stalling and deterioration in inflation. >> it's a story partly about participation in the u.s. increasing but there's still a .ot of room to go and again, productivity, the problem we've had in the u.k. as well as the u.s.. but it's increasing and still going to increase. we could get a different through the summer and the cost push from china starts fading a little. growth globally especially. do you think investors are buying up treasuries yesterday? it seems clear there going to raise in june. is that totally priced in? >> everyone's been expecting june for quite a few mont

manus: waiting for yellen. no hike is expected, traders look forward signals of what is to come from the fence. anna: france's biggest bank beats estimates. we year from its ceo. >> bottom line is 4.4%. ♪ anna: welcome everyone to "bloomberg daybreak" our flagship program. bank profit one point eight 9 billion euros ahead of the 1.5 billion that had been estimated. we spent a lot of time with the other banks in the sector talking about whether it is in the u.s., here in europe. it is an area where europe has underperformed. thick revenue in the first quarter jumping 32%. helped by commodity performance according to the business. activelyny says it is and omitting remediation plan as part of a settlement with u.s. authorities. an update coming with their political connections in the united states. up by 32%, that compares favorably compared to what we saw divert and. american banks where we are seeing an average of the top five, 15% increase in revenue in the first quarter. perhaps it will be a pleasant surprise

janet yellen has the biggest position.istake act it, susan, since the interest rate hike a month and a half ago gone from 260 to 220. therefore we should stay in our range as janet yellen will hit the microphone going into the june meeting. >> what levels are you watching, anthony? >> if you look at the chart from yesterday, susan, that buy and that panic trump turmoil buy-in took us above the 21-day moving average. the next big resistance level is 127.01. i think there's still going to be little bit uncertainty or lot of uncertainty in this market. >> today on futures now, we're keeping the bond market conversation going. >>> chief investment strategist will join us to discuss his new bullish call on the s&p. that's at the top of the hour on futuresnow.cnbc.com. "the halftime report" is back right after this. >> announcer: miss the blitz the call of the day or unusual activity? no problem. just go to cnbc.com/halftime to see the moves, the trades, who is winning and who is losing. >>> plus, breaking news and analysis of a

will the chaos in washington throw chair yellen of course? is it a wake-up call for em?e start with the big issue. a week of messy politics. it finally breaks the calm on wall street. >> ultimately, you want to have a functioning washington. we are still the most important government and economy in the world. if that all comes to a screeching halt because of these issues, that is not good for anyone. >> that is the thing we have to gauge. do people have confidence that this administration can not only get the big names out there, but deliver on them? >> if you want to keep everyone happy, including his base, he has to do real policy stuff and not just send out tweets. >> this trump trade that we have embraced and that has driven the market to new highs in equities is coming to an end. >> the trump trade -- it is great for news and reality tv playing out in politics. reality tv tends to have a short-term nature in terms of politics. i think investors will take this in stride. jonathan: joining me around the table today for the next 30 minutes or so is matt hornbach, lisa

janet yellen needs to answer questions. any announce smont come in a press conference meeting.want to be clear, david. i wasn't expecting them to lay out the plan here. i was expecting them to do twoos tee up the idea and get it more firm in people's minds there is an announcement coming and it's going to come this year. >> and then the minutes -- >> they are trying to do that in speeches. >> they've said that in many, many speeches that are out there, and the trouble you have i think is the trouble dave put out. if they'd made some mention you have to talk about all the mention. that's the thing. the fed is on track i think to come up with a plan assuming the economy comments that would reduce the balance sheet. as dave said, there's a lot of technicalities here that have to be laid out. >> right. >> does the fete ted tell us wh it's going? the rate? any hint will cause massive speculation. they want to do ittal carefully, like qe early on. >> and markets want to know or define at this point, scott, given what was not said in the statement in your view, what does that do to yo

i think chair yellen and vice fischer has been in talks.ussion of the rules-based policy. as you know, it came up constantly during the discussion, and i think the vice chair's description of how policy rules combined with decision-making by a group by committee is very useful and very important. i think it reflects some things that we are thinking about right now. michael: would you, if you are running the fed, do the same thing? set the parameters of the discussion with the role, but still use discretion -- prof. taylor: i have argued for many years that rules-based policy works. that is so it worked in the 1980's and 1990's. it was instituted by volcker. he change the policy, made it much more productive will, much more rule like. people have seen that. for most of greenspan's term it was the same way. for should get an assist developing these ideas. i think we would like to see these strategies before. it is quite feasible. when they go to bat, it is clear what policy is. we will bring about a better international system. you mentioned

yellen and the federal reserve are doing. >> sarah, let me follow up, that's an interesting line of thinking. a lot of people were thinking there are at least two more interest rate hikes baked into the cake for the remainder of this year. do you see it that way, and what if the market goes through a much more volatile phase and slides off? does it call into question two instead of one? >> i would say that there's definitely, if the market moves further, i think that you're going to start seeing whether the question of interest rate moves will be asked again. because certainly when we saw brexit in some of the volatility that was around there, you saw the fed pause. i don't think they necessarily -- the odds of a june hike have come down, but they're still above 80%. unless anything major happens between now and then or the market gets much weaker, i don't think june is off the table. but the question about what they do for the balance of the year is going to be an issue. you've seen what's happened to interest rates already. interest rates have come back down quite tragically, which is posi

high school wiz kids who could be the next janet yellen. best and brightest students are testing their knowledge of economics. steve liesman, host of the competition, got to award the championship trophy. >> dancers, musicians, basketball players and wrestlers. 11,000 unique kids from 40 different states. but they have something in common. they're just about as smart as they come. and they study and really get economics. the winners faced off in the finals of the annual national economics challenge. call it the national spell bee for economics. you can't believe the drama, and you can't believe the brains. >> carl marx and the other famous work is the communist manifesto. >> after more than 20 questions, the teams from mountain view high school in minnesota and chattahoochee high school in georgia were neck and neck. >> the score is now 12-11. >> in the end, mountain view pulled out a win for the fifth time in seven years. >> the equilibrium price and quantity will not change. >> that's correct. [ cheers and applause ] >> mountain view econ

as janet yellen distracted by the power game in washington?is clear that andrew jackson would not have raised rates in march. but other than that, no. [laughter] michael: she has always been able to shut out politics. intoannot incorporate this your forecast. so you go with what you can and tells us that they could stick with the forecast for two more this year. tom: i want to go back to on the talksann that michael has been following in washington. is there something wrong about a 15 year bond? you have to live with long-term european paper. is there something immoral about -- 50 yearinch bond french bond? andreas: i don't know if it is immoral. it represents in action. i think the monetary policy of the past 10 years could be framed as questionable. you are basically redistributing wealth from those who have taken on a look at that and who are long financial assets, taking it away from the sabres who are not taking risks. and you are getting monetary risk on their savings. so i think that is the monetary issue. the fact that they are as long