nejra: a way to trade this could be euro-yen or aussie-yen. oil jump to the highest since we got the attacks on the saudi facilities in september. how much more of a pronounced move could be see in oil? is that something that's going to drive your fx strategy? >> not really. that is a good point. in terms of oil we see oil around $60 a barrel. unless you have a significant pickup in global economic activity, it is unlikely you will see a sustained upward cyclical trend in crude oil prices. of crude oilrtive prices aside from the fact downside risks, global economic activity have lessened, is also backact we have had opec in december extending the crude oil output for -- output production cuts until q1 of this year. all of this is supportive for crude oil prices. it is not enough to lead to sustained cyclical upswing in crude prices. as long as the global growth remains relatively -- >> we kind of started off 2020 with risk on and it would help to some extent by the rrr cut, even though that was flagged. do you see 2020 as being a risk on year

the yen is higher.d a rally on friday. .old was up and treasury also we also saw middle eastern markets sinking on sunday. there is a lot of unknown where this is going. the focus is on emerging-market assets. we ended up with analysts and strategists positive on the return in developing markets this year, seeing them outperforming especially the u.s. where they are seeing valuations quite stretched. it will be interesting to see how this legal -- latest development impacts the forecasts. volatility will creep up. we have got a chart showing implied volatility on emerging markets currencies, the highest since august. it shows pressure to the downside on the assets that have benefited from that enthusiasm on the trade deal, that lifted risk assets in december. we are probably in for a volatile start to the week. investors are waiting to see how in the middleents east will pan out. risk assets, probably under pressure as the week gets underway. kathleen: while some funds were cut in the back by the christ

yen holding on to its games last year.ves higher in globo,ì(lc@&h(l% clearso need to see more signs of these political risks are receiving more permanently. jon:l8ñoxdxd sarah, r'g that lotçó is we have seen the best performance of the s&p last year since 2013, and in your own reporting, you speaking,t, generally when you have a big move, that is typically followed bye1 some buying activity. there has been a lot of research put out and what happens in the stock market after a stellar year, if you only look at price gains and returns. any idea of global growth or recession to the side, what happens after a very strong year in price gains? what it typicslny shows if you have a gain of about 25%,q as we had in 2019 for the s&p 500, you typically don't match those gains. read all's a havee1 gain of 25%, but if you look atr the top years for the s&p 500, what came in the year that followed was still pretty healthy returns. r the top years, in the years that followed, only three were lower. fál8ñowhen you are looking at 9 year

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nejra: what about dollar-yen? the movement in the yen has been fairly muted.iven through all of this escalation, dollar-yen has been one of the assets that has not moved a lot? -- a lot. patrick: that is another good safe haven. if you have a lot of risk aversion, it is a beneficiary. i think it will act in a similar manner to gold in that it will strengthen a lot in times of risk aversion. it is 30% under fair value on most of the measures we look at on purchasing power, consumer purchasing power. it is a very cheap currency. it is depressed basically by carry trades. patrick,ally briefly, do you still remain pro risk? patrick: we are pro risk moderately right now. nejra: right. patrick: so we have cyclical assets in our equity exposure, net long equities. nejra: makes sense. patrick armstrong of plurimi wealth staying with us. let's get to the first word news now. >> good morning. 737 jet has crashed in iran shortly after takeoff this morning. media reporting it was a was technical issue and that all on board have died. boeing says it is aware of media repor

yen trading athe the 108 spot.e seeing a boost for haven assets edging closer to $64 per barrel. haidi: seeing that market reaction as iran is reporting that have started their attacks on the iraq airbase which is the host of the u.s. presence. earlier, it's d not an unexpected devel. we are still trying to figure out how severe the attack is. we've confirmed with u.s. central command that the base has come under rocket fire. is inn state tv says this direct response to the killing qasemt him solo money -- soleimani last week. sayant to be cautious and that we don't know the extent of the damage. it will them easy -- immediately it is still an unfolding development and we are trying to figure out how bad of an attack .his is rishaad: -- >> what i'm wondering is how does this affect the relationship between iraq ask of a parliament -- iraq's parliament which voted for u.s. to leave and the white house. are we standing together even more after this attack? will depend ont where these rockets launched from. you have m

i think the yen, a and level, a weaker yen, maybe favorable conditions abroad for exports, but on topon causes an increase of equity, so when conditions are favorable, japan's exports may increase, and a weaker yen could stimulate the increase of competitiveness of the japanese exporters. that, price could be positive for consumer sentiment. but japan's economy could be with the change of currency market. that is a basic mechanism of the business cycle in japan. juliette: as we know, this was the first boj meeting of 2020. it was expected to be one of the least interesting, but as we mentioned, there has been a change of language, with the risk from overseas decreasing somewhat. what do you expect to see from the boj in the following meetings if we continue to see this positivity on the external front, particularly with the u.s.-china trade deal? mr. kiuchi: i think the boj is likely to keep the policy for and leaveeable future the currency markets not to be changed. in the course of this year. but maybe a pickup in the of the with the end trade friction between the u.s. , that may ca

the yen retreating, 109.29. yesterday was the most volatile day since august for dollar-yen. gold study, but yesterday -- steady, but yesterday dropping 1% after the general calm for now around the u.s.-iran story. holding fire. the u.s. and iran seem to be stepping back from potential war. president trump indicated he won't respond militarily to the missile attack on u.s. bases in iraq. he says no american or iraqi soldiers were killed in the strike, but the president said he will announce new sanctions. >> the united states will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the iranian regime. these powerful sanctions will remain, until iran changes its behavior. nejra: joining us is jim mccormick, global head of debt strategy at natwest markets. happy new year. and you come back to drama at the start of the year. ar are you reassessing your strategy based on the u.s.-iran tensions? jim": no. i think obviously we will be on high alert, since it came out of nowhere, but it is pretty encouraging to see de-escalation. encouraging pragmatism from both sides. goo

got a stronger yen contending there. 107.90. sing dollar yen trading at the moment.s playing out with gold and oil continuing in the early asian session. our next guest said macau's vip gaming segment is likely to show recovery around the middle of this year. aining us from hong kong is global gaming research analyst. great to have you and happy new year to you. what are your expectations this year? is it a selective type of recovery and how much is tied to bottoming out or a slight improvement of the macro scenario on the mainland? we think the key will be for mac recovery in the second half of the year. the math has remained strong going into 2020. the key for the stocks to continue performing well will be a recovery in the ip. that would be dependent on two things. one is macroeconomic strength in the abilitycondly to move capital from china into macau which has had tightening over the course of last year. it is always about some politics. expectations do you have, and the names giving that you are saying we have seen recovery that is going to be focused on the up

of most interest is the japanese yen. the dollar falling against the yen. 1.10 two go from current levels. to believee reason that yen will continue to strengthen. the important piece is the top and bottom. the dollar-yen coming off the top of that range, going below its 50 day, 200 day, hitting that 100 day, so buyers trying to support it, but the greater implication may be a move back towards this range. investors are going towards the yen, it could suggest risk off, something to keep for sure. king dollar was the big narrative in 2019-2020. it might reverse. what does that mean for emerging markets? emerging markets should see a bid going into 2020. this is a jp morgan emerging bond index, two straight months of inflows. we continue to see asset allocation outside the u.s. into these markets as they play catch up following those trade tensions we saw last year. >> thanks. commodities joining that rally today. i'm looking at cotton futures also up. these are higher on stockpile slumps. the latest report shows stockpiles

the safe haven trade again, the timing on this is clear as investors rushed to the yen. we see the dollar off a half of a percent at 1.08 year team coverage around the world, we are following the latest out of washington and from london, we are joined by director of research and chief oil analyst thank you for being with us. first, aemon, let's get to you >> reporter: this deadly strike reportedly came just outside of the baghdad airport last night just around that 8:00 p.m. time frame. the head of the quds force qassim soleimani was killed in this strike. surprisingly he was in baghdad physically at the time of the strike and perhaps not surprisingly, the united states had intelligence clearly on where he was and was able to target him who is qasem soleimani and his role he led the special forces group, the subdivision of the iranian revolutionary guard. it has a terrorism december sig. he approved attacks on u.s. embassy in baghdad in addition to a long history in the region including in syria and throughout the middle east soleimani was involved in planning attacks ag

tuesday the yen has depreciated back towards the 110 level. long yen. what's here? >> when you look at the yen. there are two ways of looking at it. the first one, it's a risk off tone to global markets. the second is you see. a stronger and dodge in his picture in japan we think it is going to be more of the latter. you have a government that just initiated of fiscal spending plan. and you have additional tourism from the olympics for the summer. and you also have to look at the backup of yields over the last couple of months. if you look at the spread towards gjb and bonds. this diversions is a temporary thing. we will look at dollar-yen 106 levelsthe tactically for the time being. sophie: do you see the yen reaching 100 this year? >> this year is going to be tough. if we look at the pro risk mood it suggest that the yen will not get the same support. it's going to be a more gradual move as opposed to anything swift and violent. much volatility do you assigned to, given that this a yen that has given us significant geopolitical bumps already. even the ones that we

you can see the yen is about half a point firmer. gold is up 1.1% and u.s. treasury as well we'll be back and talk about where to go mkeinarts i tell trp and which car i want and truecar shows the range of prices people in my area actually paid for the same car so i know if i'm getting a great price. this is how car buying was always meant to be. this is truecar. what are you doing back there, junior? since we're obviously lost, i'm rescheduling my xfinity customer service appointment. ah, relax. i got this. which gps are you using anyway? a little something called instinct. been using it for years. yeah, that's what i'm afraid of. he knows exactly where we're going. my whole body is a compass. oh boy... the my account app makes today's xfinity customer service simple, easy, awesome. not my thing. signs. let's take a look at how broader european markets are reacting. you can see a lot of red almost all of the stoxx 600 is red in trading as many different sectors coming to terms with the news overnight that the u.s. have killed a very senior iraqi general and

the yen currently dissipating. 50.48.e, 43 minutes away from the start of the session in mumbai. at a record close on the nifty on monday. looking like we will take some of that back, as we have the futures contract suggesting a drop back from those levels. the price action in that last three trading day, 2.5% up, the nifty. the 10 year yield affected to some extent by what happened with the inflation we got late yesterday. 7.35%, way, way higher inflation than anticipated by the economy. that's currently what we have as we head over and get over to the indian session in 42 minutes from now. meanwhile, having a look at the relationship or shall i say the fractious relationship between washington and tehran. with that and the rest of the first word news, it is su keenan. su: u.s. military officials confirmed they were told of an and pending missile strike hours before iran attacked airbases in iraq. at 11 p.m. local time last tuesday, american troops were told to go on locked down and take cover and bunkers west of baghdad

going into the yen, the nikkei is down.y widespread selling from the major markets that we track. we have been watching this move in the oil as well, with brent adding to the 3.5% surge we saw. ae contract now above $70 barrel, holding at its highest level since may last year. tracy: juliett, the other major storye we have been following is the australian bushfire situation. what impact are we seeing on aussie listed companies? qantase: we have seen cancel some flights in and out nberra.ra -- ca a number ofg factories in the area that have been affected by bushfires that are still operational. and did say their employees dairy farmers have been hit by the fire situation. we are also watching what is happening with the insurance space. they are down by around 2%. they say they have received around 2800 bushfire related claims since september. they expect it will be a total of $400 million. thank you very much for that round up. let's turn now to the markets in this part of the world and bring in our equities b specialist. ma

a weaker yen at 109.ificant after a relief rally after america and iran appear to step back from a deeper conflict. that rally has gone on to europe and asia. i will bring pound up because of what mark connie was saying and the scope of -- mark carney was saying and the scope of monetary policy. tom: emily, an open question on a thursday. what will you look for today from capitol hill? emily: a lot of attention will be in the house where they are expected to vote on the war powers resolution. we are expecting most democrats to support it and most republicans will vote against it. we will be looking for exactly who in either party does or does not break. tom: extraordinary for our worldwide audience, this is nuance, the body language of each person is extraordinary. gail collins with a liberal tilt writing for the new york times. it is really a provocative essay. president mcconnell is running everything. the majority leader is leaning towards giving trump a pass on the impeachment discussion. some of the

except it isn't it's hours away in the provinces that's why it's on the market for just one yen. somebody has to help sell properties like this that no realtor is interested in taking on i'm not out to make money i do it to help. we're going to visit the family u.g. to naca help them buy a house in the country its location is so remote our sat nav gets confused about 8 and a half 1000000 houses are standing empty in rural regions of japan the population is trying to. spend the week in tokyo the parents have office jobs there but country house is a tranquil refuge for the weekends. you've. decided to factor was the price. we are wealthy so i thought buying a house for one year and then renovating it slowly would be a dream come true i do that. with 3 children and a dog it's not always peaceful still it's different from the city and friends like to visit the school made it's wonderful looking out at the landscape i'm jealous. it's a wonderful escape from every day life was not the way. for the sellers the house had become a burden even standing empty it cost them $300.00 euros a mo

markets have been reacting to that we are a show announcement our financial correspondent in new york is yen's quarter yes how has that declaration by the world health organization gone down. well maybe not as you would expect. the old did to clear global urgency but on the other side the world health organization does not see any reason at least for now to really call for global restrictions on trade and travel and i guess that was the main reason why we saw a clear turnaround here on wall street to blue chips traded lower at some point by more than 200 points 'd by the the end of the 13 or the market actually gained a good 120 points or roughly a half a percent the show is basically telling companies whoa whoa whoa don't be too drastic but a lot of american firms have already taken some drastic action haven't they. yes certainly and about a 3rd of the u.s. corporations report earnings in those days mention the coronavirus one way or the other. is for example the manufacturer on thursday was saying that the koran of either is doesn't pick business that at least temporarily they have to have t

taylor: i'm looking at a dollar-yen charge.een a lot in the last six months dollar strength, yen weakness. and now you are seeing dollar weakness and again strength at 108, 109. what is your call on that? betweentory plays out china and the u.s. and perhaps another virus added into the picture, the bank of japan will do anything to keep the yen as weak as possible. exploits -- exports are key to the economy. so far it is working well. i wouldn't expect the yen to be stronger than 105 anytime soon. the yen,the subject of currently 108, as we get these numbers out, industrial production beat for the month of december, rising 1.3%, declining 3% on the year. that was better than expected. retail sales a bit of a miss in december. .2% growth. .he market was expecting 1% that means a contraction of 2.6%. i know you haven't had long to digest that but what is your initial reaction? that is very helpful. retail is a major problem. people are buying, doing it in a diverse way. they are doing a lot on light. there is not so much in the d

the one yen homes can't solve rural japan's glut of empty houses but u.g. to america is glad to do his part. now in global ideas we take a look at a creature which perhaps more than any other is a symbol of some of the butterfly and butterflies play a crucial role in the pollination of many plants in costa rica the wind beauties are being bred on butterfly farms and flown to destinations around the world. so. the butterflies are a symbol of life and change they're constantly transforming from an egg to a larva to a caterpillar a christless and then the butterfly the butterfly stage is the shortest in life 2 it can take time to fulfill your dreams but it's worth it then to enjoy the fulfillment of those dreams. after suffering serious back problems jenny because was no longer able to continue her office. it was then that she discovered her love of butterflies which opened up a new job opportunity now she works 10 hours a day breeding the insects she spends a lot of that time searching the leaves of plants for butterfly eggs and caterpillars. it allows me to

the dollar-yen 108. treasury futures.is bloomberg. ♪ whether you're out here on lte or here on a wifi hotspot, xfinity mobile has more coverage to keep you connected to what matters most. moooo. that's because it's the only wireless network that automatically connects you to millions of secure wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. save up to $400 a year when you switch. plus, unwrap $250 off our best phones. click, call or visit a store today. welcome back to bloomberg markets: asia. looking at the markets, the mainland china markets are holding onto gains from yesterday after the euphoria after the pboc cut the reserve requirement rates and expectations that they will continue the easing. we are seeing the s&p active futures paring back gains, down .5% after news a senior iranian military mentor was killed. whether or not the defensive position will hold depends on a response from iran which could be a strong response given the exiting tensions between the two countries. >> and how they think and frame this, th

brink of recession now to help us understand why problems prevail at this meeting as he invited chris yen and on to the program he's an energy analyst at a business intelligence to south africa welcome to africa missed again and it's quite used to be one of the most reliable power you've seen it seems in the weald why is it now in crisis it's a hard thing to explain in in a few words but there's been a series of poor decisions over the us poor decisions by the shareholder that he's government by the board of directors and by the message once that if i would put it down to one major issue i would say the medupi and could see the coal fired projects which were intended to deliver something like 10000 megawatts of new generation capacity by train t. 14 these problems have been very long delayed and not coming on stream as they should have and also at massive cost overruns pushing is going to date. at unprecedented levels and not to end up meeting the increasing demand for electricity in south africa and therefore plunging the country into a pricey a talking about long term projects have a co

they're currently 108 even that figure, $1 is worth 108 yen. the dollar has been weakening and the yen has been gaining strength over the course of the of this past week oil is also continuing to extend its gains this morning up 1.5%. now 1% a move tempered a little over the last hour. $63.80 the last trade for u.s. benchmark crude prices selling pressure being seen around the world as well in asia, you can see the nikkei in japan off by 2% the hang sang off 0.75% and shanghaicomposite flat on the day. let's spin that around to european trading we're seeing red across the board. not a speck of green across the european continent the cac in france and german dax off by nearly 2% at this stage for more on the markets, i'm joined by jim iuorio, a cnbc contributor. jim, thank you for joining us. let's talk about this sentiment carrying through the markets we're still hovering near record highs. but there seems to be a turn given what we've seen developmentally in iraq, iran and the u.s. >> well, i think we have to keep it in perspective, dom these

all these things seen yen and oil prices. all these things seen as yen and oil prices. things seen as safe haven assets. i think that trend will continue over the next couple of days as investors try to work out exactly what is going on on either side. at the same time, we are seeing an impact on the commercial aviation set. already in asia, singapore airlines has announced it is advising its flight in and out of europe to divert over the arabian airspace as well as the aviation authorities are saying it is banning american carriers from flying over this space. keeping in mind, the current tensions and hand, but also learning lessons from previous times. some respite and the markets as asian investors tried to make sense of this. it is obviously still going to be extremely tense. taylor griffin is editor of the political website, roughly explained, he was also a spokesman in george w bush's administration. thank you for your time. what you make of what has been happening?” think what you are seeing here is a desperate attempt both in tehran and washington to keep the si

the month has proven to be a good time to buy the yen.s come back from vacation, we will have a read on wages and household spending on the agenda. food for thought for the bank of japan, which is expected to maintain its monetary policy stance towards additional using. if the economy does ride out the sales tax increase, pressure on the boj to boost stimulus should abate somewhat. shery: we are joined now by a ceo. he is with us from tokyo. always great having you with us. governor kuroda probably was breathing a sigh of relief. he had a huge stimulus package coming his way. we are talking jgb yields within range. could a rally derail his plans now? know, the think, you one trigger for the bank of japan to act would be, you know, about dollar weakness and yen strength. if dollar-yen, you know, were to begin to trade in the 95 to 100 range, that could put a dampener to the outlook for the japanese economy for an japanese corporate profits -- and japanese corporate profits in particular. they are budgeting for 105. once it breaks that line

yen strength. all of this normal. you would expect oil up percent. .- 4% nejra: 10 year treasury yields down seven basis points. yields drop in europe as well. fx, preferred safe haven in gold also catching a bid. mr. unique character of qasem soleimani within iran. the former lieutenant general of the u.k. was with us earlier, and he made clear this gentleman was different. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance," welcomes all of you worldwide. extraordinary morning. theing back to l.a., killing of osama bin laden, many of the characters of that moment. that in chicago on the equity markets. melt up and axios has a headline, the team talking about america's war footing. how does the stock market do given the definition? jim: usually not well. the natural state of economy of markets is to expand. things,start breaking when you talk about war, you heighten the chance of breaking things. we have not broken anything yet. there is fear we will break things. one of the leading causes of breaking an economy is hi

the yen is a good haven.eflection of recovery in global growth much more than it being a risk haven. and other than that. is best haven for investors to diversify. the yen benefits and i think we got -- the central bank has as a tool the ability to intervene. for investors is always a risk that if they buy too much swiss franc. and with the yen they have a negative interest rate. the bank of japan and the swiss national bank do not want these, they have an issue with two low inflation. they don't want to currencies being pushed up even further. -- float thesend elsewhere. it's a place where gold becomes quite interesting. gold became interesting last year. level since 2013. the reason why think it's become interesting is fixed income markets became interesting last year pushing it a negative interest rates. as we go back in the early 1990's, gold did not retain the safe haven gains it made, it went lower. in the markets tended to say back then why would you buy gold when it's effectively got a negative yield

we saw the yen go higher and stocks going down. in terms of u.s.utures and retraced some we of those losses since we saw those initial attacks. oil, we hungld and onto half of the market reaction that we saw in the wake of those attacks by the iranians onto u.s. iraqi airbases. yes, negativity on these equity markets. said, it does seem as if investors are assessing the latest escalation and asking, it is that it -- is that it? we will talk about this with our mliv team in a moment. let's go to the other side of the dmm. you can see where we are on the oil story. we do see elevated levels on brent crude. up by 1.3% compared yesterday. still flirting with that $70 a barrel mark. gold push through the 1600 mark. it continues to flirt with that 1592. let's get to all of our headlines. plenty to cover this morning. bloomberg's first word news. this morning, a boeing 737 bound for ukraine has crashed in a ron. -- iran. all passengers are dead. early assessment suggests the crash was caused by a technical issue. owing says it is aware of the incident and

anna: we don't see enormous amounts of moves in the yen. moves in fx.ay, its stock markets in asia that seem to be reacting. again, 108. how much more strengthening and the japanese currency makes sense, do you think? risktin: they, against correlated commodities currencies. dollar-yen itself may be stuck in the middle, if you will, with the dollar also playing a role of a high-yielding safe haven. it is a real indication of how the markets are feeling in the thepace after looking at way investors have been using currency, a funding with the high-yielding south african rand and the turkish lira, which has suffered a lot. i would expect both the yen and the euro that have been widely used as funding currencies to fund and carry trades in the em space to continue to benefit against those currencies. matt: what do you expect for gold? i mean, it's not a currency as such, but it is something that a lot of people use currency to trade into during periods of unrest. valentin: we expect the goal to continue to shine, if you wish. it is one of our calls for 202

president donald trump has long accused china of keeping the yen at the lower levels to get an unfair trade advantage. france and its partner nations in africa as a whole region have now agreed to unite their troops under one command structure to step up the fight against armed groups that at a summit in southwest france the leaders of mali became a fuss only share mauritania and chad also asked the u.s. not to pull its troops out of the region a move which the pentagon is considering paris for its part will send $220.00 more soldiers to support the fight the priority. the priority is the islamic state of the greatest so her which doesn't prevent us from fighting against all terrorist groups but this is the main enemy because the most dangerous as we have seen to reach the subject of we are changing methods by implementing a joint military coalition between both and the joint forces of the g 5 and concentrating you know if it's in the stone iranian protesters have defied a heavy police presence in tehran for a 3rd day they are angry about the killing of 176 people on board a ukrainian

a key yen has crossed level, weakening past 110 for the first time in eight months. dollar-yen again reflects the risk on picture in the market. equity pictures pretty flat. today, we saudi s&p 500 and nasdaq hit records. the spread between tech and banking shares hitting extreme levels. some green in asia for the fourth day in a row. back to our top story, the u.s. has dropped its label for china as a currency manipulator. they say commitments not to devalue the yuan have been made. thes: that news boosted yuan, touching the highest level since july in the offshore market. it is not the only news driving the currency up. the data signals that china's economy is on its way to a steadier grind. strongerr exports on global demand, trade disputes with the u.s. and the volume. let's get to tom mackenzie, looking at the numbers and digging into the details. he is our anchor of bloomberg's china open. should i dig deeper beyond the headline or be comforted by the fact that there are fairly robust numbers at the top level? tom: they are fairly robust as far as export-import

rallyingese yen against the dollar. dollar-yen at 108.ing higher, but for risk off reasons over tensions in the middle east. subsectors especially sensitive to today's town. if we take a look at the airline index, its worst day since october. index. the semi that was last year's big winner. today.rs selling chips bonds rallying. bonds rallying. vonnie: thank you for that market check. us get back to the heightened geopolitical tensions in the middle east. joining us is nancy davis of quadratic capital management. correctly predicted the 2008 downturn. what are your predictions for 2020? nancy: i think investors need to be focused on diversifying at this point in the cycle risk assets, stocks, bonds, credit. everything is expensive right now. i think what happened overnight is a reminder that investors need to know what you own, whether you are a passive investor or active investor to really understand what is inside your portfolio and your exposure. vonnie: if we take diversity as a given. we are on top of diversity always. where is the b

japanese yen is a safe haven. i must say actually, the japanese yen is up than u.s. dollar and is holding up. oil is definitely on a buy. wti, to give us a sense of the volume. brent crude is saving four times its volume and w.t.i. is trading six or seven times. the markets are definitely moving with this geopolitical news overnight. it's time for the global exchange from around the world. from london to istanbul to prints on, new jersey and washington. our bloomberg voices are on the ground with this morning's top stories. we begin with tensions in the iddle east where one of iran's most powerful general killed. the u.s. active international terrorism targeting and assassinating is extremely dangerous and a foolish escalation. the u.s. bears responsibility for all consequences of its ogue ven chur churism. mark, what is the reaction? i've seen some demonstrations already in iran. >> yes. there have been protests in iran which is the city where he was born. the key thing to remember about him is he's not just a commander. he was the commander who constructed and exec

he nikkei up as we see stabilization in the yen.or people who couldn't get into the hong kong and china markets. china remaining closed. a quick look at some other assets we are following particularly when it comes to some of the currency moves. the yen stable. the offshore yuan gaining today. a little bit of weakness coming through in the thai baht. earlier we were seeing strength. it was hit hard as the coronavirus spread. just want to quickly check in what to expect when indian markets open later this hour after we have had two sessions of losses in india. you're beginning to see a potential flat move coming through on the futures there and we have a rupee there trading around 71.24 against the dollar. the 10-year yield showing a little bit of movement. let's get the first word news with su keenan in new york. >> we start with the latest on he impact to have coronavirus. chinese state media says 25 more people have died in the province bringing the nationwide death toll to at least 132. hong kong is restricting travel china as th

yen is a safe haven currency. machine orders doesn't really change the way the yen operates.achine orders are very volatile. i would like to pick up on one thing you said. you said somehow the olympics will cause a change to some of the numbers. what usually happens with big sporting events is actually building the infrastructure in the five years up to the actual event is what matters. the actual event itself in the context of gdp is miniscule, and you never see any impact, unless it is a tiny economy. but japan is an enormous economy. i am saying he will not see much impact from the olympic -- you will not see much impact from the olympic games. you have already seen it. --we have heard he has previously said he sees a crisis in the hong kong dollar. says?as disastrous as he should you go long dollars? david: not at all. if you want to go on tv and make a name for yourself, you say bizarre things. someone like myself, the hong kong dollar -- we never get it wrong. we will not get it wrong this year. i don't believe the hype and the fancy stories. these are people trying to

only the last few days, gold is the highest form followed by silver, and even the euro and japanese yenthey have not been performing as well as the dollar and the environment. amanda: just a little more perspective on gold, when you price it in the euro, we are now seeing gold hitting 40 year highs, and this is also true of gold in the yen. interesting measure of risk appetite and possibly also the reintroduction of concerned about inflation and a modest way for the united states. you can see historically speaking, all the record highs here, 40 years high for goals where the risk appetite is. vonnie: let's stay with our top story. president trump saying no americans were harmed by any iranian missile attack on u.s. bases. he also announced a new sanctions on tehran. statesrump: the united will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the iranian regime. these powerful sanctions will remain until iran changes its behavior. vonnie: joining us now with more analysis is a senior research beenw, and it has not even 24 hours. what a night, everything was pot civil -- ever

. >> one of the other moves we saw announced is the yen we saw the dollar rise above 1.10 yen for the first time since may. how much are you looking at this or how much of an opportunity is there in this cross? >> we've seen a lot of demand in terms of geopolitical risk we should get a move higher in the dollar/yen going into a more positive environment there will be that proxy trade, so you are taking on that global geopolitical risk. >> one thing that came out of the currency manipulator treasury list, the report continued to say the strength of the u.s. dollar was concerning also the imf has judged that the dollar is trading too strong as well do you think this will be the year the a u.s. administration gets more active on the currency front? >> it is within the treasury's agreement. it is their decision to make we implemented by the new york fed, it is something that will be central everyone will be watching that rhetoric we think for a number of reasons, that the tide is kurning against the dollar where we see more growth we that fed has ammunition to cut rates and we suggest the

specifically, a flight to the yen.d be the biggest beneficiary of the attention in the middle east. sinceat its lowest level october. the movingng below averages. the yen's correlation with the volatility index climbing to its highest in almost three years. analysts say you may not see much further upside for the yen against the dollar. it is unlikely to breach 105 unless we see further retaliation in the conflict. nejra: the jump higher in oil not helping indian equities. >> it is not. and good morning to you. we started out about 1% lower. that is the correlation we usually have. discussion -- the one interesting note. niftys a chart of the small-cap. you are seeing the current like which is similar to what we saw in 2008. most think this means the small-cap well rally. the question i have is what if it is not the small caps that rally? that would start a lot of popular sentiment so people have to be wary of that. back to you. manus: thank you very much. let us take it to annmarie hordern. there is a constriction in

the yen also caught a strong bid striking in the immediate aftermath on those attacks and stabilizing on the dollar. let's get to oil which is the main way in which investors have expressed risk around the region this morning, wti trading is 0.2% higher. dan murphy is in dubai following the oil closely. dan, in the immediate wake of these attacks, oil spikes. walk us through what this has meant for wti and brent. >> absolutely. we've seen volatility. oil in the crosshairs here we are looking to see how the united states responds president trump set to address the nation shortly investors will be keeping a close watch on his comments to see where this situation could go next. in the immediate aftermath of the attack, we saw wti spiking 4.5% brent also on the rise lifting around 4%. with he saw brent and wti hitting levels we haven't seen since september and april respectively original equity markets also trading lower. we saw those at the start of trade. equity markets in the uae. negativity certainly appears to be the theme when you look at the reaction we have seen in oil right now,

the yen to try to give you some risk off cover. those kind of levels, jumping back into treasury markets now is perhaps not as attractive as a few weeks ago, but we do think treasuries still have -- still give you some cover for these unlikely events. manus: what are you going to be watching for as a canary, red flag as far as liquidity? for the asian markets at the moment, it be interesting to see how long they close for. not always reflective to what we will actually see in those markets when they open. trying notis about to get overly caught up in move self one or two days. a potential to have a sustained hit for global growth. friday, the pmi data when people were turning slightly more optimistic. trying not to get overly caught up in worrying headlines and focusing much more on the economics. manus: hugh gimber from j.p. morgan asset management. italy's matteo salvini has suffered a stinging defeat in a key regional vote. it provides a much needed boost to prime minister conde's government. salvini thought he could force early

we are dollar-yen positive, yen negative, going forward.ns with the chinese story, to what extent is good news for china bad news for the yen? adam: in a nutshell, that is really the picture. the yen, along the swiss franc, is still the market choice for safe haven currency. those correlations are still very robust. anything that would cause these markets to go risk-averse, and china has been the main cause of that over recent months, will tend to play out as yen strength. but if i look at the event risk in the first half of the year, mostly things look quite benign. we've got phase i having gone through in u.s.-china, the political risk in the -- [no audio] -- would typically be associated with yen weakness. guy: for you expecting from christine lagarde? she's expected to start laying out the outline of the policy review that is underway. that sounds great, but do we get anything that is market moving? adam: not at this stage. we know that review formally starts, but we are likely to get very little in the way of publicly available informa

oil jumps to $70, gold surges, and the yen rallies as investors opt for safety over risk. turned blood red over parts of southeastern australia, as residents desperately seek refuge from deadly bushfires. we will have the latest. is said to be booming for recreational marijuana and illinois, where more than $5 million worth of products have been sold in two days. we have the ceo of green thumb industries. a paul cap over things today, the funerals continuing in iran. live pictures showing massive grounds. however, you wouldn't know that looking at the market. it issued rubbing off all of the geopolitical tension. the s&p up 10%. the only place that you'll see it is in stocks. the semiconductor index having a down day, more exposed to geopolitical tensions. that said, they had a massive run-up. one of the other surprises today is the department stores. nordstrom, for gap, and the like. some last-minute shopping helping to believe those stocks. one question is where the fundamentals fit in with the valley of the markets. take a look at this chart in the bloomberg. this is th

the yen is actually heading for its worst week since july 2018. another two-week low right now.or the first time since 28 team. brent heading for a weekly loss as well despite the spike on the geopolitical tensions. belowing the same, back $60 a barrel. justin trudeau saying the ukrainian jet was likely shot down by a ukrainian missile. he says it may or may not have been an accident. the head of iran's aviation the theoryalls plausible. trudeau is blessing for an in-depth investigation of the crash. >> we have intelligence from multiple sources including our allies and own intelligence. the evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an iranian surface-to-air missile. this may well have been unintentional. nejra: european foreign ministers holding an emergency meeting today in brussels to discuss the situation of unrest in the middle east following a week of confrontation. our reporter maria tadeo is in brussels for us. is calling for immediate de-escalation. look at actually do? maria: that is the number one priority for the europeans, to de-escalate tensions in the reg

having a look at the nikkei, in a surprise money going into the yen.ese stocks being sold off. david was talking about the property gauge testing august lows. down 1.4%> and samsung weighing on the cost be which had a rebound yesterday. it is down 1% as well today. a sixth session of losses for asian stocks, the longest streak since october 2018. we're awaiting every open up markets in india. yesterday we saw bounce coming through in those indian indian markets but looking like -- with the nifty futures in singapore down .02%. weakness in the rupee. no surprise you are seeing money going into a sovereign debt. today, the yield on india's 10-year note down two basis points. kathleen: let's turn to some of the biggest earnings news. samsung saw fourth-quarter profit fall 30% in december coming in at $4.4 billion. falling membership prices and weak demand for its display. the company is expecting a weak start to the first quarter as well this year but is forecasting an improvement in 2020 as the rollout of 5g boosts demand for its chips. joining us is san

the yen year to date actually down by nearly 1%.nc a little weaker here today as well versus the u.s. dollar. some of this has to do with the very short-lived spike up in oil prices. what are your expectations for oil from here? $65 a barrel on brent? viraj: i think the market has enough supply to come online at these levels. the asymmetric risks when it comes to will prices, and think there is limited upside because of the nature of supply and supply coming back online. the market be in good surplus, but it is worth remembering global demand has been trending lower and we expect that to come through this year, both structurally from ships towards nonoil sources of growth, in particular. climate change efforts. but, also the demand in general from china, etc. $60 to $65 seems fair and it will be a flat trajectory from here. matt: you don't expect it to push inflation higher either? viraj: i think the link between oil and inflation is tepid at best. i think the sort of traditional channels through which oil -- from oil onto inflation