dollar-yen sitting up at 139 handle.umping on the report that the boj will be discussing yield curve control at their meeting decision to be announced today, and all of this seeing that overnight reaction against the euro up about 2%, further strength seeing against the u.s. dollar. also watching the aussie dollar also watching the aussie dollar of retail sales as all of the work that we're doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. haidi: you're watching daybreak asia, 30 minutes into the start of trading in tokyo. let's look at the latest market action with david and there's been a bit of action already, dave? david: it feels more than -- more like 30 years than 30 minutes. we been holding hands together into the journey towards the week and until the boj happened. the big news of courses out of the nikkei report. what we seen so far in the bond markets in

they don't want a super weak yen.ry: what are the implications of the yen being so weak against other partners like the chinese yuan and the south korean won. there are still exports that they compete against each other. sean: no doubt the yen-won is watched very closely in seoul. they will be watching the policy that the fed is pursuing. i think they just have two be able to manage through this attentional, probably relatively short-term period of the yen advantage in terms of the export side. they have to plan ahead and look for ways to try to get an edge. because they can't expect a sharp appreciation in the yen until there is a change in policy. and it could happen. remember how sharply the yen appreciated in december of last year simply from the widening of the target of the jgb. so i think they have to write it out for now. shery: what are the implications of the weakness for the yuan perhaps as we have more clarity as to what will happen with the pboc. it seems that continuity is the name of the game that also

does not seem that the yen is currently but you mentioned the yen which should be stronger right nowof foreign interest in the equity market which is burgeoning to highs which we have not seen since 1990. how do you square these two together? adarsh: the yen and one -- you entrÉe different lee. the yen is a countercyclical currency because it is the domestic close that matter more than foreign yes, money is going into japan but also going out and increasingly we are arguing that retail money will start to it -- because the yield differential is so large. the offshore money is participating in carry trade spirit the renminbi tends to be cyclical and the yen countercyclical and that is what we are seeing a different in terms of how they are trading despite different macro backdrops. haslinda: 10 year yield heading to the four handle makes the yuan and yen on the defensive. take us through your expectations for yields and how that will play out to currencies. -- play out for the two currencies. adarsh: for china be expect for the rate cuts. they have cut by 10 basis points but there's p

for the yen, it is a bit more debatable.nk if you saw a pickup in sentiment, you may see more coming back. having said that, there is certainly some jgb risk going, i will take that. these unwinds and carry trade's, you could see some flows as it goes through. i think how much really depends on how high yields are allowed to go. rishaad: good stuff. just looking at the fx markets, the young getting absolutely roiled. if we saw it take to hammering after the news came out, as you said earlier, we do have, of course, at the moment a come back then for the yen as people really kind of delve into all this. david: as you are talking, i am just noticing as the market digests this, so this specific bond -- if i could ask producers to bring up chart 672 please. this is the june 2023 bond, so this is as 10-year as you can get. keep in mind, .5 percent, no longer rigid. maybe guidance, they are allowing that to move up a little bit further. we were trading right at about 50 basis points above zero before the statement came out. lookin

i movement from tokyo on the japanese yen-— japanese yen. i think there would not _ japanese yen.hink there would not be _ japanese yen. i think there would not be surprised. - japanese yen. i think there i would not be surprised. they had done it in the last six or a months as far as intervention when it approaches the 145— 150 sort of handle so we will not be surprised to seek intervention sometime injuly. australia central bank will be meeting this week as well. it is a tricky balancing act for them, isn't it, dealing with inflation, whether or not to raise interest rates? what are you expecting? we raise interest rates? what are you meeting?— raise interest rates? what are you expecting? we have got a 3796 you expecting? we have got a 37% probability _ you expecting? we have got a 3796 probability of _ you expecting? we have got a 3796 probability of a _ you expecting? we have got a 3796 probability of a number. you expecting? we have got a | 3796 probability of a number 25 37% probability of a number 25 point basis point hike. analysts had been wrong the last few months i wil

we still have not talked about the yen.he beauty is set to meet next week. -- the boj is set to meet next week. claudio piron is still with us. i think there is a lot of speculation next week's meeting will see some sort of change. the strength we see in the yen seems to suggest we will see something. are we likely? >> that is a great question. we think the boj will not go this month. potentially in september they will go. it is a live meeting. you were alluding to the comments from the boj governor overnight. speaking to a lot of clients, about 30% felt there was still a risk that the doj could go in july. the fact that they surprise the markets late last year suggests we cannot be complacent about what they do. the one argument would be with the market combing and the pressure off dollar-yen, this may be the opportunity. we think looking at the data, they can sustain the ycc for a few more months. we still think that don mcgahn could go to 147 -- dollar-yen could go to 147 in the third quarter. david: the scenarios seem t

yen holding steady.the previous section on the back of a weaker yen, no expectations of further upside in the yen as a result of policy shifts. boj watches further policy shift after the shocking tweak on friday. 41 economists surveyed do not anticipate further moves in 2023. when it comes to equities, nikkei futures are starting to gain, too tense of a percent higher. strategists at morgan stanley and see the tweak as providing extra clarity that will support further gains in the equity markets. morgan stanley saying opportunities are even clearer. the central bank has added policy flex ability without signaling a tightening cycle. goldman, we are hearing that they think that boj overhang appears to be removed. a couple of comments on the bowl camp for further gains when it comes to japan stocks. let's bring in a senior fx rates reporter ruth carson. what are we hearing from biggest market voices about what they are doing with their japan portfolios in the wake of the y cc move to try to make money? rut

what is interesting in this one is that the yen forecast in the first quarter was for the dollar-yenate somewhere in the 130 range. what has happened since then? the yen has gotten a lot weaker. the dollar has gotten weaker. the boj still isn't signaling a move on tweaking policy. this will be closely watched, what it will mean for the bank of japan. again, they look at this as one of their ages of inflation expectations. very important. also the manufacturing pmi, seeming weaker on the manufacturing side. very strong pmi a nationally last week. and then we have the rba rate decision. big speech. will they hike rates again? most were surprised by 25 basis points a month ago. look where inflation is in the second quarter. very high, but still far out of the 2% to 3% range. phil lowe talked about a balanced decision. where will it be? wednesday, minutes from the june meeting, we will get what their argument was for causing and are they ready to hike -- what their argument was for pausing, and are they ready to hike in july? 225,000 right now is our payroll survey from bloomberg. down f

dollar-yen, sub 140. it is different this time. talking about the different rancho between now and january -- i'm talking about the differential between now and january. tweaked -- you also have a stimulus narrative coming from the pboc as well. we have a powerful combination which is a much wounded dollar and the possibility of some kind of an adjustment from the boj. , chan is standing by with a wrapup from -- tania chan is standing by with a wrapup from the asian market. >> the markets seem to feel the animal spirits coming back from china and you are seeing the broader asian stocks gaining for a fourth day. the chinese policymakers were speaking today trying to juggle the problems with the near-term challenges and structural challenges trying to shift away from the property engine. they are looking at targeted fiscal and monetary policy tools. they may look to lower the benchmark interest rate and that would help boost the lending demand or credit demand they are trying to used to fuel the economy and economic recovery. look at

this was partly due to the weaker yen as it pushed up raw material costs.he company raised its net profit forecast for the fiscal year from august to 260 billion yen or $1.8 billion. it expects a strong overseas performance to continue. >>> the chinese government says it will enforce measures to regulate generative artificial intelligence services next month. beijing said on thursday that texts, images, video, and other a.i. produced content for the chinese public must reflect the country's core socialist values. the measures go into effect from august 15th. officials say the content must also exclude subversive material and expressions that are discriminatory or infringe on privacy. they added service providers must delete illicit material and stop its spread. violators will be punished and could even be held criminally liable. chinese authorities have rigorously regulated online services. in 2017 major i.t. company ten cent had to suspend its a.i. chat bots after they apparently criticized the chinese communist party. companies such as i.t. giants baidu a

shares traded by investors in europe rose 17% to almost 85 trillion yen.he value of asian based investors transactions jumped 20% to nearly 20 trillion yen. stocks traded by market participants in north america increased 2% to about 8.4 trillion yen. tokyo's bench mark nikkei stock average recovered to levels not seen for more than three decades in june. that was driven by investors betting that japanese companies will continue to perform well due to the bank of japan maintaining its monetary easing policy. but markets says the investments were so rapid they now seem to be pausing japanese stocks. >>> whiskey continues to gain pop lair at home and abroad. and one company has responded to the trend by using its woodworking expertise to create high quality barrels. the company nishin furniture crafters started selling its 220 barrels. crafters at the company are experts at a technique that uses water and heat to bend planks. the technique has long been passed down in the region to make chairs and other furniture. the company says it can make barrels from oak

the yen 141.65. down 0.3%.boj buying bonds as yields rise in what is unscheduled operations. family offices gaining, rising in importance that asia intend to be notoriously selective a prospective employees. let's get more from bloomberg's asia investing reporter david ramli. talk to us about why this explosion is happening. david: it is a matter of demographics. most of asia's super wealth has come about after the end of colonialism and post-world war ii. what we are seeing is a very normal trend that we have seen in decades past and the u.s. and europe where the people who made the money are trying to essentially entrench themselves and their families and pass the wealth down to future generations. haslinda: are there bottlenecks to this growth? david: the key bottleneck is a matter of talent. in places like america and the u.s. where you have had this industry for quite some time, there are plenty of people who have gone into income out of family offices. in asia because it is so new, you civilly don't have

that is weighing on the yen. a lot to see and i just before we can understand this path -- a lot to see and digest before we can understand this path. host: sticking with the china topic with our roundtable. i am joined by mallory and jill. let's start with the china pmi's. manufacturing has contracted for a fourth month. no manufacturing activity -- as the economy is still under pressure. this is the backdrop to the government measures. what drove this week data? what do you expect from the announcement? >> you're looking at continued evidence of the slowdown we have been talking about. even though the manufacturing index picked up. it still remains in contractionary territory for a fourth month. it is also the nonmanufacturing gauge measuring the services sector activities. it stayed in the expansionary territory but it is slower than what economists thought it would be. it shows a continued loss of momentum. the data is backwards looking. in july, we got the announcement from the paula world we are progrowth -

let me show you what the yen has been doing over the past few days. dollar versus the yen.thing has been beat up this year, but look at the very end of the chart. yan strengthening -- yen strengthening through 140 per dollar, its 50 day of strengthening. what is driving this -- it's fifth day of strengthening. what is driving this? isn't preparing for what may be a live boj -- is it preparing for what may be a live boj session? what do you make of the yen strength now? >> we've got over two weeks to go and the speculation is reaching fever pitch already so it's going to be a fun time over the next few days. people were already getting a little bit excited when we saw a couple of pieces of data, i think we were talking about it this week on the show already. we've had the wages moving in the right direction. yesterday the tipping point seems to be the latest jgb option. traders have been talking for a while suggesting that if the bank of japan is going to change yield curve control, they will not dispense with a completely. they will just change the pivot point. they may shi

the value of exports was up 3.1% in yen terms from a year ago. auto exports jumped as a shortage of semiconductors eased. overall imports were also up, but by less than 1%. the costs for crude oil dropped nearly 9%. the finance ministry also released the preliminary data for june. it shows that exports rose 1.5% from a year earlier while imports fell significantly. the trade balance as a result was in the black for the first time in nearly two years. but the surplus was small as exports to japan's largest trading partner, china, fell 11%. >>> japan's government plans to widen its ban on automobile exports to russia to include used domestic cars which are popular in that country. the government will likely approve the move at a cabinet meeting next week as part of tightened restrictions over russia's invasion of uk ukraine. sources say an export ban will be placed on diesel cars as well as hybrid and electric vehicles. the government banned exports of electric cars worth 6 billion yen or $43 million last year. the embargo means they'll only be abl

thieves made off with around 8.5 million yens worth last year.hat's about $60,000. >>> next, nhk worldia yanaka me is here with biz picks. >>> every friday we bring you the latest in business with biz picks. let's kick things off with a wrap of the tokyo markets this week. the nikkei average closed at 32,388 on friday, july 7th. it hit a fresh 33-year high on monday but has ended the week down 2.4% as investors took profits. they were also cautious that u.s. jobs data due later on friday might increase the odds of future rate hikes. next, a look at the week ahead. on wednesday the comprehensive and aggressive agreement for transpacific partnership or cptpp will go into effect in brunei bringing the number of nations to 11. and on monday we'll get bankruptcy data on japan. for 13 months in a ray bankruptcies have increased from the previous year. all eyes are on whether june will see that trend continue. so our feature biz pick this week looks into the state of japanese companies. an expert at daiwa institute of research is especially worried abou

have they priced this and already or could this make another move up in the yen?i think what we have seen heading into the cpi print, there is so much writing on it. i think what we have seen as a combination of overcooked fed pricing and undercooked boj pricing. markets don't realize just how large that boj meeting is coming up and there is a big distance between cpi print and the boj decision. people are probably trading on the side of caution and i can't blame them. if it is going to be a hot print that is going to come in from these levels after we have corrected like we have, you can see the dollar put on a couple runs may be back up to that 143 area. but if we happen to come in soft, or the market is still a little top-heavy, there could be a further shakeout. -- a head and shoulders formation on the chart coming up very quickly and we are already nearing the right hand shoulder of that support so if we go through that 140 level on a week print that could probably elicit further correction lower than about the 138. >> bloomberg's fx reporter michael wilson,

look at the dollar-yen into today.eld curve control, we have a little bit of a move higher, a little bit of a recovery, but still down on the week, which is interesting to take into account in terms of different factors which could come into play in the future in terms of no longer using the yen as a carry trade. we'll stick with this right now. one thing we do know is that the dollar index is lower on the day, down about 0.3%. look a look -- take a look at gold and palladium commodities, up about 0.3 percent, with some metals a little more sensitive to the dollar moves, getting a bit of a bid. we have so many tech earnings today. intel, a great quarter. the outlook great, recovery for pc's. takeaways -- meta and alphabet both up almost 10% on the week, or about 10%. it seems as if it really is a recovery for ad sales, driving both of these companies higher. alphabet on the week into this of about 38%. meta up about 38%. that is where the catch of trade could be. >> from strength to strength. it is incredible to see a

we saw the yen rallying as much as 2%. 1% against the grain. kathleen, you have been following the boj for a long time. if this happens, it would be surprising. they are trying to communicate to the markets. if there is a sudden change, we might throw some of that communication skill into question. it was above the forecast. much better than the 2% previous number. the forecast was for 1.3. jobless claims down, down to 221,000. you're going a little bit higher. also interesting how that caused a rally that the boj did. >> walk us through the u.s. session. >> it was a pretty positive morning. we had a lot of data point into a soft landing. this after jerome powell he was going to be very data dependent. this morning, we get strong economic data and also that personal consumption data coming in. suggesting some does inflationary growth. we started to see a pickup in yields. the bank of japan has been the last global central bank to keep this also loosen monetary policy. it would close -- caused global bond yields to spike. -- they don't know how

hence why have to point out that dollar-yen. the dollar actually is stronger against the invites .6%. but as your about to point out, it's been a roller coaster. >> has. i want to point out, you didn't mean to say this, but the bank of j could be the bank of japan, or the bank of jay powell. i will start a petition to start call it the bank of j. i love that. you are right. i have that in front of me. as you showed on your board, there is not a lot of movement, but i want to underscore the volatility we've seen over the past 48 hours. right here, yesterday, we had a report, and it was more than 1% dollar plunge, with more than 2%. the biggest move since march. we really hung around, and even when we got the boj decision, coming down, there was some confusion because we didn't actually change the policy. we didn't change the band. we didn't change the target. we just changed how we would enforce it. you get the yen selling off, and then, you reverse a sharp drop in the dollar, and we kind of just floated around this level. >> we

, rather unexpected weakness of the yen. of japan to move either tomorrow or in the september policy meeting. that could potentially remove the support for the dollar-yen and also the japanese equity. so this is the reason why we are slightly more careful about chasing that story, for now. haidi: it's confounding, because it feels like we've had consisted messaging of caution from governor waido and others. you see this almost as if it is live, as if there are expectations askew toward some kind of announcement or tweak toward policy, and at the same time, you are seeing risk reversals the lowest since 2020. there's a lot of risk of potential in the rally is welcome at what is going on in terms of market sentiment? homin: we still think, you know, the markets on the fence about the potential moved by the bank of japan and the scope of appreciation by the yen. in our view, this is a good opportunity for investors. in terms of the bmj, they have been very careful. from our perspective, it does not make sense for the boj to ann

the yen has picked up a little bit. just a fraction.s is a game changing result but what it does show is inflation is still strong. still way above the inflation target. and we have this boj meeting next week. there has been some speculation swimming around of possible change. why is that? mainly because the boj forecast for this fiscal year is totally out of whack with the numbers. they are saying it is going to be averaging something like 1.8% this fiscal year. people are familiar with the -- they have told us already that they are expecting officials to consider raising the forecast above 2%. the focus next week may be on what the boj forecast the price to be in the next fiscal year because for the moment they are saying 2%, if it is still above 2%, the forecast over two years, above 2% or at 2%, why continue with stimulus? that has been feeding speculation but his comments were interpreted by markets as fairly solid on continuing with easing but the consensus has always been that the big change is still a ways off. i am talking abou

whether in latam currency r the japanese yen -- or the japanese yen.veryone is asking the same question. what derails the yen funded carry trade? we will see what happens in terms of offsetting measures in jgb's. trying to calm the volatility in that space. that is the biggest issue for me. what the bank of japan does -- is this the circuit breaker that ends this trade bill: that's -- some people are suggesting that could come as early as the meeting earlier this month. i still think at the moment in this dynamic that carry trade continues to work. both nominal and real rates suggest you continue to buy dollars. you continue to sell yen. it would have bigger ramifications for the trade. >> had cameron crise talking about how the weak japanese yen could be fundamentally an issue for stability in northeast asia. even more than the weakness in the chinese yuan. does that make sense given we have seen the correlation between the yuan and broader emerging markets sort of break given the disappointing growth in china? >> absolutely. i think the chinese proba

we are keeping a watch on dollar-yen ahead of the boj meeting. keep a watch on yen movements.e also keeping an eye on xpeng after volkswagen said it is buying a stake. hstech up by almost 3%, heading for a bull market. the hang seng tech index gaining nearly 20% from its lows in may. new gadgets on the way for samsung. we take a closer look. this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: this is the state of play with chinese markets, moving to the upside, but not quite as much as earlier this week. the central bank and the pboc adding liquidity by reverse repose. we also bud selig one -- the dollar one. a quick look at the hong kong market. we do have tech shared the big story. there we go. up about 3%, which is taking the index and two bulls terrain. quite a ride this week. property also up with the hopes of some stimulus. haslinda: the nikkei is in positive territory ahead of the boj meeting tomorrow. not expected to move, but when you take a look at the movements in the yen space, you are seeing a lot of volatility. the biggest volatility since march. perhaps investors are bracing for a su

the yen will come back.hings i will say is that the japanese inflation data, wage growth data is moving slowly, and that means the boj is going to be cautious, and they will not suddenly change their policy, so it is going to depend on when the u.s. fed reverses it cycle more than the boj making suddenly large big moves. the boj will move, but slowly and cautiously. haidi: when it comes to the rally we have seen over the past few months, so much of it has been driven by a couple of things, one is u.s. influence -- inflows as a result of the warren buffett effect and reallocation away from china. do you expect these two the medics were inflows to be able to continue? -- thematic's for inflows to be able to continue? >> the flows from china, we can rely on that. i think china has a lot of structural problems. i used to be a banking sector analyst over chinese banks during a banking crisis and japanese banks over their banking crisis, and i think china is in a similar situation. i think it will take years if no

also the yen and the kiwi is accelerating some 0.5% versus the dollar, the yen, a lot of shorts being, though the dollar is stronger versus the yen. the sterling did hit 130 versus the u.s. dollar yesterday. it has backed off a little bit. one trait is weaker dollar, the other is lower yields. that's a trend we continue to see throughout the morning. two-year yields continue to drop another three basis points this morning, yesterday they fell 12 basis points. the entirety of the curve was impacted by the cpi, because if cpi is lower maybe inflation will be lower into the future. australia picks up that trade, three-year yields come in by eight basis points, that is fantastic for tech. as they futures up 0.3%, as hong kong tech searches more than 3%. the high beta trade is playing out today. the nasdaq announced they would be taking activision out of the index on the 17th, despite the fact we haven't had the conclusive end to the microsoft activision deal yet. up next, its markets today as they walk you up to the european open. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg markets today. i

you get the tough questions. >> the yen is happening.as i said in my piece, it is dependent on what the boj does. i can tell you what the currency markets will do but i cannot tell you what central banks will do. >> that is the long-winded way saying he got the yen wrong and i got the pound wrong. guy: an aggregate, this is glass half-full. you can also see it as glass half empty. as long as there are glasses, we are all good. nice to see you for our markets live team. coming up, where does the buck stop? this is bloomberg. >> what is driving it right now is a lot investors feel we have effectively reached crews also tune. the broad take away is investors feel like we could see the terminal rate in the near future, and it is time to take that trade off. that is a big driver. >> joining alex and me in the last hour. it takes us back to the question of the day. where does the buck stop? over at deutsche bank, they think kind of 1.15 euro-dollar. what are the indications if we do get a weaker dollar from here and the euro strengthens? what

the dollar-yen is back above that 141 level.ad: and overall, we have a bit of a mixed bag down here. we have chinese equity markets feeling it once again and elsewhere, perhaps a bit of rest. there are the general macro movers. the nikkei is up 1% heading into the lunch break. we have currencies and a tightening oil market, and indeed the fed in play for oil after the stellar gain we saw last week, trading a bit of ground. let's get on to what is related to the property side of things, looking at dalian wanda group, setting aside its payments for $314 million. that faces a deadline to repay a maturing dollar bond. bloomberg's kevin king is with us now. >> certainly things are better than they were week ago when wanda said they had at least $200 million of a funding gap for a $400 million bonds that is maturing today. this 413 million dollars goes a long way to close the whole, though it is hard to know exactly where this money -- how the money is going to flow from dalian wanda down to the unit towards the company that has to pa

taking a look at the yen, 1 38.46.tions of that tweak in ycc. >> the bank of japan meeting haslinda was alluding to of the end of this month. china is headed to the break. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> there we go. welcome back. just in time for the lunch break, last-minute the trade onshore in china. we are up 43 points, that's the green item on top of your screens, though it's the summer time and the summer lulling, as they say. volume continuing to move down. keep that in mind as you try to attach narratives to this market story that is riling. onshore benchmark -- rallying. onshore benchmark. going into the hong kong break, 30 minutes left, half hour of trade left, we are doing much better here in hong kong. flipped the page, boom, there we go, baby, there we go. has? haslinda: looking pretty good. we are awaiting for japan to come back online. just moments away from that. the nikkei 25 getting a lift, never mind that the yen is strong, strong, strong. this is a market that has gone gangbusters with to

the yen and the bond market. no need to tweak ycc. as sherry pointed out earlier in our premeeting show, chile is ready to go 100 basis points for a cut. many central american banks were among the first to raise very aggressively and now starting to cut. that will be one of the interesting moves. a developing country for sure but definitely one everyone will be watching. haidi: kathleen hays there, setting up what is set to be a very busy week. we will have more analysis on those decisions around the world on daybreak asia. the former deputy governor will be joining us at 9:40 this morning in sydney. shery: our next guest is cautious on the markets and says we are headed into a seasonably weak time of the year and good news has already been priced in. joining us is hilary kramer, chief investment officer at kramer capital research. always great to have you with us. when we're looking at the market levels right now and we are this close to record highs, what gives you pause? hilary: it is simply because we are at such a high right now

, euro, and yen. hold water was poured on the hopes of yield curve control meetings. has come very far from 1.45 without change or intervention. it will be interesting to see where the yen goes from here going into next week's inc. of japan meeting. dani: next week is going to be bananas if we have japan, the ecb and the fed. bloomberg's tania chen there and she will be back with us later. let's get to the top stories and a morning roundtable. joining us is lizzy burden and valerie tytel. lizzie, you would be hard-pressed to find a bigger story this week then bank earnings. lizzy: they keep rolling in. the year or -- of doldrums is over. bank of america is up four point 6% thanks to the surprise gains from the fixed income and equity traders. morgan stanley closing up 6.5% on this more optimistic outlook for the second half of the year. dani: investment making is back. everyone beating on that front. equities underwriting was so strong which is crazy eights in a world where there is basically no ipo's

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the yen web saws and yields jump.resident christine lagarde says september is a live policy meeting after a ninth rate rise. standard chartered announces a $1 billion share buyback after better-than-expected second quarter profits. our interview with ceo bill winters is up next. good morning, happy friday. there is only one story in town this morning. it is the boj. it's kept its policy rate unchanged but it has adjusted its yield curve control program, not widening the band but giving more flexibility. let me get you up to speed on market moves. at first, the yen slumped against the dollar then traders realized this is a change in the band, now it is at a 138 handle. and then there is speculation on the boj taking yields another leg higher. both again and treasuries have been in a difficult place, but the fed had to stop as did the boj, having to start. s&p e-mini's have been all over the place this morning. currently they are pointing to a higher opening. these markets confused as we await the press conference at 7:

why are we seeing the surge in global yen deals? >> good morning.k is your previous guest just mentioned, when we came into marge there was a lot of concern with the new boj governor, what he might do to rates, but the market has calmed down, they do not expect rates to climb as high as they feared. overseas issuers have come in and taken their volatility, sprites have come down, so they have actually come in. there is an investment appetite now to take out these bonds, which are higher-paying than regular corporate debt here. shery: so what can we expect to be the reaction from the boj policy announcement this week, given that we are not necessarily expecting a tweak in why cc -- ycc, but at the same time we could see the inflation outlook change? >> so obviously the meeting this week is going to be a big focus point. people as you said are not really expecting the boj to move even possibly its ycc target. if it did move, there would be more volatility in the markets. the volatility would hinder overseas issuers coming here to sell, because it woul

yen hedge, japanese stocks dxj. actually long that. i'm always long, but tonight, i shorted some spiders, because i feel like it's too frothy at this moment. >> dan >> intel better hold those gains, i've got puts in the smh. >> all right, rebecca, thank you r joining us thank you fo >> thank you for watching "fast. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now >>> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hi hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to help you make some money my job is not just to entertain but put collapses like today in some sort of context you can understand call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. something that's kind of embarrassing at this moment. we like to kick these

tom: what is your scope and scale on yen move? are you looking, ¥150 or 132 and --yen?not going to take a long-term term position yet because i am not sure what the bank of japan is up to. we saw the widening of the band, it is -- is it a technical adjusted -- adjustment to improve trading conditions for people who have to be in the market or is it the first step in an actual tightening of monetary conditions? it is not clear. we do the calculations that show if we had the bond market fully adjusted, the increase in the band, they hit in portfolios, the economy would be for .5% of the gdp and that is our map and we have a huge profit on the nikkei, if we were to call the end of the fiscal year today and if all that bond yield headwind reviews, -- that is a one-shot deal and i think that someone is hoping to take advantage of that and hoping the stock market would continue its rally and offset losses on the bond market and give him steps towards normalization. if it is have a percentage point, there is no impact on the yen. and there is no basis to look for a major move.

from a currency perspective on the yen, the yen short to very elevated, and being careful about the yenng can move very quickly, very sharply. we think the bank of japan will start to talk about life after yield curve control by the time we get through into the fourth quarter and we think they will start to make adjustments. therefore we think they yen will appreciate in that context, but rates in japan will be low relative to where they are the rest of the world. you also have things like the australian dollar where rates are up high and we think they go higher. also the ecb and the pound -- the ecb and the bank of england where rates have to come higher still, so that also underpins this narrative of dollar weakness against the major g10 currencies. even when we look at market pricing, even our own estimates have the fed cutting before these g10 central banks. haslinda: i want to move to commodities. it has been a lackluster run year-to-date, -10%. will that change in the second half? wayne: the key volatility of volatile -- commodities has been in industrial and agriculture where we

yen very much in focus going into the meeting.eek risk reversal telling us we are seeing some bets being hedged for gains. it continues to build when it comes to the possibility of an elevation of the inflation forecast. the key we is holding pretty -- the kiwi is holding pretty steady. the aussie dollar is flat. the euro hitting a two-week low. also watching dollar china. beijing holding off on any major stimulus announcement. promising countercyclical in the meeting. would potentially at least in the medium-term be a disappointment despite the uptick we saw bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. >> kathleen hays has the latest and were talking about the national association of business economic surveys. what are they saying? some people are getting so optimistic but definitely if you look at the latest july survey, 71% of economists -- economists where split even. one in fo

this is a the yen story.cial 140 level on expectations the boj may ditch ycc at the end of the month. nikkei 225 under pressure, the topix along with it. take a look at the yen, 139.56, wasn't that long ago we were looking at 140. they are saying perhaps 150, or 138 rather than 150. companies that follow est investing principles have come under increasing pressure in the u.s. blackrock and state street are among those facing pushback for efforts to combat climate change, which some say may be violating u.s. antitrust laws. let's discuss with marie freier global head of impact and sustainable investment banking at barclays. good to have you with us. the pushback in the u.s., is that momentum losing somewhat? marie: thanks for having me back, it's great to be here. it's a valid question in the u.s. where the topic of psg investing has become politicized, almost to the point where the term esg is no longer helpful at this point. we have seen it in fund flows. globally the momentum continues to be there. haslinda

yen and then invest in higher yielding currencies.ase, it is brazilian real and the mexican peso, because they have high interest rates in their countries. the fact that the boj is loosening its grip on policy rates and letting the yield to rise more freely, that may cause the yen to appreciate more. making the trade to be less profitable. we know that mexico and brazil have high interest rates and the boj will do things more carefully, which will let the yen appreciate more in gradual. that way, the trade may still be worth it. shery: bloomberg's emerging-market reporter zijia song, joining me here paired let's bring in the next guest whose preferred em exposure was -- is in latin. great to have you with us. evan all of these risks, could we see some profit taking in these trades, especially when valuations don't seem as compelling as they were before? jack: sure, you could see some profit taking. we have done some profit taking. that is it. you are just paring back an overweight position. you are still maintaining a significant over

the dollar-yen is where should be, off the session highs.analysts saying the yen will depend on the timing of the global recession. ubs seeing the yen out more than 9%, 128 is their target by the end of the year. some for spite for these battered yen and seeing dollar china which had seen a bit of a lift on these property measures. >> you are watching daybreak asia coming to you live. >> we are counting down to the maj

shery: we do have secretary yen janet yellen in china.hat they are going to put export controls on two key metals. do we need a new market playbook to account for these geopolitical tensions and a new regime when it comes to global politics? >> we do think we are in a new macro regime. it will reverse many of the secular trends we have seen over the past 50 years. it fundamentally changes how we should think about the political policy, economic and market implications. it is one of the big things, the invest playbook. you think about what globalization delivered to the global economy, it delivered free trade, just in time supply chains, deregulation, fiscal austerity. it's on the death of trade unionism. structurally lower trade growth. extreme financial is asian. -- financialization. if you want to go back to what we have seen over the past 50 years, it will turn that investor playbook on its head. the geopolitics is a huge theme on that front that plays into the deglobalization and decarbonization. those metals that were restricted by c

currency space, the aussie dollar drifting lower following the rba decision and looking at that japanese yen approaching once again the 1.45 mark. heidi. heidi: let's get market analysis with mark. what are you watching out for today in the trading action? mark: today if we get any excitement it will come in the currency space. the china central bank pboc has had success with strong fixings for the rishaad: yuan getting a little traction but seeing dollar-yuan around that level which is an improvement from what we were seeing last week so you probably will not see him -- them relax. we can expect the fixing to be set well below traders estimates to make sure that everyone gets the message that the chinese interbank has run out of patience and would like to see a stronger yuan. they will know by the middle of july the big tax payments made by chinese onshore companies would drain some of the money out of the money markets and lift short-term interest rates and help to support the yuan as well so if they can get to the next couple of weeks without too much weakness in the yuan that will give t

one more note on dollar-yen, mr. yen is saying that could reach 160 on the ongoing widening differential between u.s. interest rates and what the bank of japan is doing. it's a big call, but in the past he has been proven right in many occasions. lizzy: thanks for that roundup of what's happening in asian markets. turnout for our roundtable with derek wallbank and kristine aquino. we will start with a surprisingly strong u.s. jobs data. the flip side the inflationary threat. that sent the treasury two-year just short of 5%. the dallas fed president saying more hikes will be needed to cool inflation. >> i remain concerned about whether inflation will return to target in a sustainable and timely way. i think more restrictive monetary policy will be needed to achieve the fomc's goals of stable prices and max unemployment. lizzy: the official jobs numbers are out later today, is that anything that could not the fed off of its hiking path? christine: the u.s. jobs market is very robust, despite the fact that we have seen

when boj breaks we see strong yen. this is also in dollar-yen at $1.42.et is far less interesting. tom: yes. jonathan: how does that bleed into what is developing in europe and the treasury market? tom: i agree. the japanese bond market is an artificial market. the question is what do we do as an analog in controlling the bond market? that goes to the debate of jackson hole. what did they do with the balance sheet of the fed? jonathan: a number of years ago we were talking about yield curve control in america. do you remember that? tom: it was not that long ago. that is to the success of the institutions. mohamed el-erian will join us to talk about those institutions. jonathan: giving the federal reserve a victory lap. you are the only one that thinks they deserve a victory lap. tom: it is oppenheimer as well. jonathan: into the equity market on the s&p 500, positive and the yields are lower. the bond market story yesterday disrupted by the jobless claims data coming in lower-than-expected. this labor market is resilient and you can put that pause on ice.

the second half of 2023 starts, and investors are keeping their eye on the japanese yen.nvironment. hello and welcome to asia business report. i'm mariko 0i. it is the start of a brand new week — and the start of the second half of 2023! new week — and the start this week, we're keeping our eye on several things — like the yen, which crossed the key 145 to the dollar level last week. and speaking ofjapan — the central bank will the second half of 2023 starts, and investors are keeping their eye on the japanese yen. plus , evs have been touted for their green footprint but a report suggests the move to switch to them could cause more problems for the environment. hello and welcome to asia business report.

dollar-yen one to watch.clays saying we could potentially see some volatility to the yen to the downside if we do not see the boj making a move as early as this month. and dollar china is always one to watch going into the session given the gdp recovery is continuing to bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. shery: russia has ended its grain export deal with ukraine increasing uncertainty over global food supplies. vonnie quinn has more details. it has been almost a year since the pact went into effect. how important has it been to ensure the grain supply? >> it has been a lifesaver. 43 countries at risk of famine before the pack went into effect and that has been widely appreciated. that is data according to the u.n. food program. political unrest in several of those countries at that time as well. the food price spike came down quite substantially. tod

the yen is on expectations that the boj will tweak the ycc.'s see if we are setting ourselves up for some disappointment. in terms of the 10 year yield, that is how it is looking. the bond yields have been edging higher toward the .5% ceiling mark this week. look at some top global stories. u.s. secretary of state anthony blinken met with his counterpart in jakarta. the two sides continue efforts to improve relations, but new strains have surfaced as blinken raised the issue of alleged chinese hacking of u.s. government email accounts. meanwhile, treasury secretary janet yellen who recently visited china is set to travel to india for a g20 meeting. it will be her third visit in nine months amid a concerted push by washington to strengthen ties with china's neighbor. the chinese coast guard says it repelled a japanese fishing boat in a disputed part of the east china sea. it describes the move as a necessary control measure near the islands. in a statement, the coast guard urged japan not to send ships to the area. the eu is lifting import rest

i want to point out the yen around the 140 handle. they had cpi inflation from last month hotter than it did but economists are saying that to put too much into that read because it is going in the direction that most of the market already expects. bank of japan governor is expected to keep monitoring easing stance next week and the yen, pboc officials coming out today to defend that currency at a meeting. they are also talking about opening up the china bond ensure market which takes me to this board of the ultra long yields of the chinese government bond notes, the 30 year to be exact. it is near the lowest since early 2000. this part of the curve tends to reflect the economic growth projections of china and so analysts expects that yields may go further down a policy announcements do not meet its petitions, later this month. dani: thank you so much. that is bloomberg tania chen giving us the latest on the asian markets. let's get to the top stories this morning and it is time for the morning roundtable. joining us is valerie tytel

the moment the japanese authorities don't seem to be particularly worried about stimulating the yen, don't think that's as important as the influence of renminbi on the rest of southeast asia, which is going to be much more critical, if only because of the volumes. rishaad: thank you so much for popping in. richard harris, investment management. a lot more on the way, market check. we have china heading off for its lunch break, japan returning from theirs. this is bloomberg. ♪ haslinda: we are counting down to the rba decision, markets pretty split on whether the rba will hike are not. they have raised raise 400 basis points in 14 months with a surprise hike of 25 basis points back in may. asx under pressure down a 10th of 1%. the aussie at 6676. a tad higher, but some say it doesn't matter what the rba does , ozzie will be on a downward trajectory. for page, take a look at oil on the bank of saudi arabia and russia saying they will put a lid on supplies. crude ups extensive 1%. we have seen it turning higher on the back of that up by 1.4%. rishaad: looking at what's going on with re