brooke and daniel yergin speak of $100 or can daniel -- or can daniel yergin speak of $100 a barrel?n: it could touch $80, but we are still using $70 for our price at the end of the year. as economies open up around the world, motorists are on the road , and the opec+ countries putting oil back in the market, and even the prospect of iran coming back into the market soon still has to rile the market. lisa: there's this idea of discipline that a lot of the oil producers have regained, and that they are not going to overproduce for fear of cannibalizing from their future profits. at what point does the shale complex come back on and see higher prices as something they just can't miss, and perhaps enhance their production? dr. yergin: that's a question that opec+ are looking at pretty carefully. the increase in recount we see is among private operators, not the major companies. so i think we will see the second half of the year u.s. oil production starting to go up again. but i think at a modest rate, and i think there is a new social contract between the shale producers and their inves

we thank daniel yergin, who is not a thought leader. he owns the high ground on oil and was brilliant on brent at $71.07 a barrel. we are going to piece things together, looking forward with investment. daniel morris joins us, bnp paribas asset management. what have you changed in the last seven days? what has been the distinction of your call over the last seven days? daniel: i would like to think we have data that allows us to mckay big change over the last week, but i think that would have been a mistake. i think we are really waiting on the nonfarm payrolls data on friday. that is going to be a key data point. there's a lot of questions about the outlook for the u.s. economy, about the rates, about fed policy. given what happened last month with that huge disappointment with the april data, we need to get a confirmation that that really is the underlying dynamic . jonathan: that data point on friday, what questions exactly canada answer -- exactly can it answer? daniel: the fed has said for a while now that this inflationary surge i