yo yo will be the next president. what does this mean for the country and for east asian peace and security? plus we take a closer look at why japan joined sanctions on russia. how does a far away conflict play out in east asia? ah, i melissa chan at thanks for joining us. the world is focused on the russian invasion of ukraine, but in asia, the attention is on south korea as presidential election. a consequential one that will determine the country's national security approach to it's very own threatening neighbor to the north, north korea, and will determine u. s. foreign policy in the region, the winner is young if you're a conservative who has said that he would consider a pre emptive strike against north korea and who supports more sanctions against kim john ans regime committee. and john were chosen young daughter, i will build strong armed forces to deter any provocations partial in order to protect our people, safety property and sovereignty. or yes from you that i will respond sternly against north korea's illegal and irrational actions according to principles. huh. but i'll always leave a door open for dialogue with north korea and didn't euro from question. for more we have do young kim from the center for a new american security. joining us a do you and tell us more about yoon and his position on north korea and then what that means for his position on the united states. well, thanks for having me back. melissa. we can expect you to be much tougher compared to the current president toward north korea. more principal to that. these basically means he and his administration will want to actually penalize any bad behavior and prop provocative action by north korea and responds in kind. while i'm keeping the door open to dialogue and diplomacy so, but no more of skirting around and, and turning a blind eye to elicit an eagle, illegal, and provocative activity. and so he, this is actually going to be good news for the bite administration. we can expect that the yoon and bite in alliance to be much more and single, actually in sync to run more smoothly to be unlocked. step when it comes to how to deal with north korea. they're going to want to normalize usaa create joint military drills, which means to really bring back military readiness to normal, which has been, which has been, you know, downsized and minimalized because of the progressive moon government now. but also partly because of the pandemic. and they're also going to want to strengthen what we call us extended deterrence, which is america's a security guarantee toward south korean, also japan. and so this would actually mean things like try to enhance certain military capabilities to defend, really defensive posture and defensive steps to defend both countries. now there's one area that you know, if that could be a challenge, could and we'll have to wait and see is if humans advisors might, at some point in the future, for whatever circumstances. reason if they want to go too far towards maximum pressure on north korea, but at that time, perhaps circumstance. how's it that the by the misuse, you may not want to go that far. and that's something that, that, that, that the allies will have to figure out how to do. but otherwise, i think we'll see, you know, the, the alliance working much smoothly. you know, everything you've said. one thing i've always wondered, is why south korea is not in the choir, which of course includes the united states, japan, australia, and india. and of course, you mentioned that the military alliance is between the u. s. and south korea in terms of the strongest one. the strongest of alliance, there are, there are american soldiers in south korea. so how do you see south korea fitting into the ecosystem of into pacific security? well, you know, i think south korea cannon is a player and can be a player to contribute and, and, and help a defends the international order with all the other like minded countries and democracies. both asian and european. i know that you and, and his advisors wants to cooperate with quad activities. a my understanding right now is the quad itself is not thinking about expanding actual formal membership, but they'll certainly be working with allies and partners in the region. and of course, and other europe, especially to and work together on, on interests and issues of mutual concern. and so at least for now we are hearing that unit is advisors are determined to really step up, do more in the region, contribute more to world issues. so we'll have to see, to what extent they're able to do the concert. there's so much domestic issues that the next president will have to deal with. why she's in office a lot to see how he balances both domestic and foreign policies to young kim. thank you so much. thank you for having me. ah, continuing our look at how the rezo ukrainian conflict is impacting the asia region . japan and joined other nations in sanctions against moscow and has also banned exports of oil refinery equipment to russia. there are historical tensions between the 2 countries with their dispute over who owns the carol islands just off the coast of chicago. it's one of the world's longest running to territorial disagreements, is the main reason the countries fail to sign a peace treaty at the end of world war 2. known as the southern korean in russia and the northern territories in japan. the archipelago, surrounded by rich fishing grounds, and is thought to have offshore reserves of oil and gas. russia says it's planning especially can amik zone on the islands, and it's beefing up its military presence. in december, russia deployed coastal defense misses systems near the islands as a show of force on much were a deserted volcanic island in the middle of the chain sovereignty over, the korean has been disputed for centuries. the islands were occupied by soviet forces at the end of world war 2. japan disputes moscow's claim of sovereignty over the 4 southern carol islands. closest to the main japanese island of ho. last month, the discovery of a u. s. submarine near the korea islands during rush and military exercises added to the hostile atmosphere between russia and the west. with, during part of the drills, we have detected near the koreans, a submarine most likely from the united states. in the far east orange island area is after 3 hours of actions we have removed from our territory. so, lou, this week, japan's foreign minister yoshi marcia. hi. she described the 4 islands as an integral part of japan. the sabre rattling over the cordial archipelago goes on. we have jeff kingston, director of asian studies at temple university, japan and jeff, we just had a quick look at japan and russia as territorial gripe. but tell us what the other motivations are for japan taking a strong position on the ukraine crisis. well, i mean, i think that the tokyo shares the global outrage at hooton's invasion of ukraine and the assault on a rules based international order. so i think it wants to demonstrate solidarity with the g 7 strength and the alliance with the u. s. and, you know, show that it's ready for prime time of the problem is that japan's track record on sanctions is not that strong. recall about a year ago it promised strong sanctions on the military junta stage a coup d'etat in burma, and nothing much materialized and back in 2014. his sorrow watered down the sanctions against crimea, probably because it was hoping to improve the context for negotiating those return of those disputed northern territories. so a lot remains to be seeing what joe gill will actually do. and curious how is to pan likely going to be impacted by this far away conflict, for example, are you seeing the same spikes in energy prices we're seeing everywhere else? sure. well, the japanese government trying to offset that by rolling out subsidies for prices at the pump to try to rain that in a yes, we're all facing higher energy prices. i think you know, the big impacts are to fall. one is japan is very worried about the implications for taiwan, whether china might see the week, what's perceived to be the week, a resolute wester response has chance for a to a realize it's planned for a taking over the island. and the other big issue is the cycling l. n g projects to the north of japan. and, you know, shell in exxon have indicated that they're going to pull out. and, but japanese companies which hold nearly a quarter share and both of those projects are very unlikely to pull out their view here is that if they divest, that's just going to help china. so they're going to hold onto those investments. and i don't think japan is going to be really strong on sanctions on russian energy . russia only counselor about 4 percent of japan's oil imports and about 9 percent of l. n. g. but because of japan's vulnerability, i, i think that's going to be a bit wishy washy. now we're looking at a world that is dividing between democracies and autocracies. and i want you to talk to us about that. let me share with you japanese prime minister from you. ok. she does words to the next south korean president, tony ema, mccook, say, soccer and legit. okay. actually now, as the international community faces a new era of major changes and mackenzie, a healthy japan, south korea relationship is indispensable vehicles say in order to realize the international order under rules and for peace, stability and prosperity, and they're high in the world family. and for the region, he, jeff, with this new south korean leader, are we going to see more cooperation and alignment on security issues between the 2 countries? well, it's going to be very difficult. her solid tokyo never run out of issues to fight over these. fred emmys, have been battling each other for quite some time. ah, so i'm hopeful but also skeptical that it's all going to work out as planned. justine then thank you so much for joining us. that's it for today. we'll leave you with another winner of south korea presidential vote, the i patching election graphics scene on korean television. see you tomorrow with the war and the world economy where all this sanctions biting. how is the impact energy prices supply problems, resource shortages is the next economic crisis are made in germany. a lou? yes it is polinos 1st go to good or no. i'm sure that it was eyes do. yeah, no sooner or they must nipple it window the money in supposing. what saving, what's in but other of it looks on you ah, ah, ah. despite warnings for weeks russia is attack on ukraine, triggered shock and alarm. on the 25th of february 2022, russian president vladimir putin launched a massive military assault on a european country. horrifying images have filled our feats of bombed out cities. crenan dead and injured of families on the run. responding to russia's invasion of ukraine represents a crucial test for europe and its allies and their ability to cooperate, to punish the kremlin and end the war. that response has so far focus on economic pressure to force russia to change course. so far with only limited affect the war in ukraine and its impact. that's our topic to day on made. what price should russia pay for invading ukraine? the fate of ukraine and of europe depends on the answer. sanctions, swift and aggressive are meant to deal a crushing blow to russia's economy and its industrial base. that's the policy tool of choice for the united states. european union and other countries condemning russian aggression. seizing assets like luxury yachts, belonging to oligarchy is but the smallest part of those measures can sanctions in the war for that the economy of the aggressive nation as to suffer . it does inflict the lot of damage to the russian financial system in the russian economy. but is it realistic to expect russia to cave under economic pressure? what's actually behind the sanctions against russia? and why does china have a key role in them? the sanctions are unprecedented. russian aircraft are not permitted to land in the e u. certain goods, including oil, refining technology, may no longer be exported to russia. numerous russian banks have been barred from the swift banking network. and the central bank of russia can no longer access its foreign reserves in the e you, the value of which is estimated at $210000000000.00. when you have a number of countries coming together, in this case, we have not just used the u. s. but also tenant, as you in japan, korea, singapore, switzerland, and more. i'm actually that can work. but 2 major russian banks, a spare bank and gas from bank, are exempted from the band the he you wants to use them as channels to pay for russian oil and gas dust and shuffle. but this is a weak point in the sanctions package. life we depend on gas supplies, which is why spur bank and especially gas prom bank, are still part of the system before it's not possible to identify other transactions that don't relate to energy supplies and just band them that isn't feasible for you. i thought it did, you should see young. these are done also. she's best is also mishma. pressure is also being put on russian. billionaires with ties to vladimir putin. they have assets in the e. you were frozen and some yachts were seized and they are no longer allowed to travel to you. say well to the beloved french riviera is get a hold of dusty talk of i do assume that the pressure on this financial elite will have an effect in the sense that the pressure on the russian leadership circle will increase in these are mainly people who are associated with putin who have benefited from this association immensely over the past few years and decades. so this will certainly lead to some real unrest. that's what the charge was. but one major economic power is not joining in. it's of course, critically important how china and reacts to says changing to environment in the next few days and weeks. and as a chinese won't communicate about it. so you have to watch what to do, not what to say. and so far it's one thing is clear, which is that they're not citing unambiguously with russia as much as clear how far to go with to watch. so will china try to fill the gap and supply russia with the goods it would normally get from the e u, and thus subvert the sanctions? it's a difficult situation for china. i think, you know where you could say they want to be neutral. but this is difficult because that's not always the sanctions i engineer and i don't think china will want to lose its connection with the rest of the world. economically, it's not a big problem for them to lose their connection with russia. so it's a, it's, it's a big political issue. it's not really an economic issue for china. chinese companies face a dilemma in the sanctions game. if they supply russia, the goods which the e u has banned, they could face difficulties in the u. is covered as she not. and also i believe that china has a great interest in not jeopardizing trade relations with the west. we are a much more important market in the e. u and in north america than russia is in every sectors. jacob sector. in the end of the sanctions, tough enough to achieve the goal to have massive consequences for the ordinary lives of ordinary people in russia. i suppose you have political consequences. how far said booth. none of us know is clover justice. i don't believe that sanctions will be enough, in my opinion. a complete exclusion of all russian banks from the swift system will be necessary even with all the negative impact that the west would then be left to contend with. no consequence. when he got you out, you will start investing board. but even if the sanctions are tightened, folk have blue believes the west would be able to wither any economic fall out. an additional aim of the sanctions is to make it difficult for russia to finance its war. that's the logic behind cutting off the countries accessed the global finance. major russian banks have been removed from the international system of payments known as swift. but what does that mean exactly? what is swift? the acronym stands for the society for world wide into bank financial telecommunication. a global network founded to process international financial transactions. it's been around since 1973. the system is used by bank and commodities insecurities craters in more than 200 countries. welski sum 42000000 transactions were handled by swift. every day the bank identify a code or big it shows that money transfers are paid into the correct accounts. a big is familiar to anyone with a bank card. it allows bank a in germany to transfer a payment to a bank in the us or to purchase shares or precious metals. if a big code is blocked like that, of many russian banks, the member bank has shut out of swift, severing it from international monetary flow. many russian companies can no longer pay for or receive foreign goods. russia's trade with the rest of the world is restricted. but it means the trade in urgently needed goods from russia is also interrupted. the results rising energy prices worldwide. and russia is not only a major exporter of oil and gas, but of iron and steel, to still being shut out of swift hums, russia most of old in the catalog of sanctions. it's the instrument that cuts the deepest but there are other instruments still that could cut deep to like limiting the sale of russian energy as the world's 3rd largest producer of oil and 2nd largest producer of natural gas energy exports are a major source of revenue for the kremlin, but before any official moves were made to target the sector, some western oil giants are pulling out of the country. we spoke to an energy analyst from moscow about the future of russia's prised industry. the cities are being devastated in ukraine. how can russia wall be stopped? ukrainian civilians blocked streets in some areas. the ukrainian army is fighting on multiple fronts. they 2 countries are supplying weapons. and the west has imposed punishing economic sanctions on russia. so well their work we ask are russian oil industry insider? do you expect a big effect of these sanctions now? yes, very definitely. so i am watching very closely at the developments in russia, and i see that a lot of foreign companies are departing, even the janes, such as b, p, and shell, and exit. more bill are going out from russia, even though, for example, if it's a very good example, d p. p is generate in about 30 percent of its profits in the russia. nevertheless, the company has decided to leave and shell is the operator over russell's 1st l. n . g project on the cycle environment. and ex model is a partner and operator over another cycle in project which is a very successful and well with, by a near, in technologist and so on and so forth. but nevertheless, they have decided to leave russia. how do you think it's tough enough that the sanctions are unfolding the effect? yes, absolutely. i am convinced that the economy in the oil and gas industry, which is the backbone of the russian economy, is going to suffer because of those companies were bringing advanced, acknowledges a lot of cas know how ah, to russia and the without their commitment to resume projects. i don't saying that the rational production of oil and gas can go ahead and continue. and the, because of the sensors will already see that the appetite of consumers store or some crude oil is shrinking, or russian companies and traders in the rest. and oil cannot sell some consignments of oil. and they discount is very huge for each barrel of russian oil. they are offering over almost $90.00 of discount and then still there are no buyers for. so i show because one of the traders told me that, you know, you know, people believe that the oil is tainted with blood. the oil rejected by other countries. kind russia sell this to china low with chain. if it's, it's a big problem because when the rest of the oil reaches chain of by pipeline, yes, and a lot of that goes to china, it is a rational does not get any money. chain of has already provided ross near with billions of dollars of credits and loans and lower us nets has to supply oil oil free of charge because the money has been spent already. and the china is already rejecting ration oil when it is delivered by ships. the chinese are very pragmatic because they're not going to interfere. they are watching the developments and the changes bank are refused to provide the russian companies with grades and loans. and so they cannot help her as an economy at all. they are a watcher and outside water. nothing more. so there are lots of economic problems in the, in russia is put in amenable to economic arguments at the moment. my impression is that they've sim, possible to explain his actions by annual logic at all. absolutely. what's the, the wrestling leader is doing is detrimental to the benefit to the well normal life in our own country in the rest. not only even if we do not consider the tragedy, the painful events in your crane or ashley is also going to suffer enormously. it cannot be explained by any logic miss a critique in you recently left moscow. may i ask, how are you roofing? thank you. it's not like moscow, but it's some sort of a relief because when i was in moscow, i was attacked by my friends and acquaintances with a lot of questions. their own opinions about what was going on as painful to listen to what they are saying. they still believe that nato and ukraine are attacked in russia. and ukraine is a land where there is genocide against the rustles and so on and so forth. a lot of those, the fairy tales, and most of that was based on some fake years from the federal give you channels and federal media, which in my opinion are very, very far from thrills. despite all the misinformation and propaganda on state television, protesters opposing the wall continue to take to the streets of russia. like in moscow, thousands have been arrested demonstrations sanctions and the spirit of defense of ukraine have so far not halted the russian offensive. and every day ukrainian residential areas are still being bombarded that russia produces so much oil and gas is one side of it that europe has bought so much of it is the other. the prospect of disrupted supply has sent energy prices soaring. but the kremlin has been using its natural gas exports as a way to exert pressure on western europe for some time. now, russia has turned off the top on one pipeline that runs from poland into germany, affecting many businesses in the region. the path of the a mile pipeline is clearly visible in poland forests. but for months now, the 5400 kilometer long conduit has been empty. for that, i'd call it the policy of empty pipelines. something god's promise been working on for years slipped out a policy with drastic repercussions. dot com. yes. the price of gas is now $3.00 or 4 times higher than it was last year. i don't get off the rush, you re against way for middleton. this is where the your mile pipeline ends in mallow at the german polish border. but it's unclear how long the pipeline will remain in operation. germany, poland, and the 3 baltic countries are looking to lose their dependence on russian gas. importing liquefied natural gas from elsewhere, transported by ship. he's one option, but it's expensive. take this polish glass factory in the town of pnc example, where stuff a hard work. the ovens here run on natural gas. they have to be heated to $1100.00 degrees celsius to produce glass. as a result, the glass factory consumes huge amounts of gas but the company's director thinks russian gas policy and the war in ukraine on the only factor is driving up prices. i think the european union and its environmental policies are to blame for the price rise each night at all. because c o 2 emissions are becoming more expensive. remember, that creates a complex and unclear situation also to us. most of it is. and you can see that russia and other gas suppliers are taking advantage of that situation. to push up prices are not official. the part of the amal pipeline also runs close to this bakery, north of the city, of which high gas prices are having a huge impact here, as well. the cost of operating the gas ovens here to bake bread has sort so fall master baker yard. lupsi lensky hasn't increased his bread prices. that means he's barely turning a profit. but how long can he continue? his plan is to switch to electric power. so they can look now switching to electric ovens make sense and he says that way we can draw green energy from hot springs, wind in solar power, and then you have to set up a show going. and those are all sources of energy that we can get ourselves. we know that is the out the door and they're not coming from far away. they're right on our doorstep. i guess it was to say this was another alternative to rush and gas is a new baltic pipeline dubbed voltage pipe. it would transport natural gas from norway instead. poland was the initiator of water pipe and they had to say a wish to diversify their supply. north of the polish city of pose none. the baltic pipes from norway meets the mile pipeline from russia. norwegian gas is due to start flowing to poland by this summer was sold will then no longer be dependent on russian deliveries. and could even supply western gas, ukraine and in addition to the baltic pipeline, poland still has the option of liquefied natural gas, or l n, g. adding further flexibility and above all, independent from russia. and you should also see the party pipe is also, let's say, a parallel project to the expansion of the l g port terminals. so in the future, main supply supposed to come from l. e, or from the 40 pot germany and the netherlands already purchased natural gas from norway. now poland and other eastern european countries are joining in irving. it's not when the polish pipeline is added. there will be more competition for norwegian gases. norway itself is in planning to raise production significantly in the next few years. but this must be reassessed in view of the current supply situation in europe us. and the issue with russian supplies on over the cars in europe's energy market are being re shuffled. and it looks as if the continents heavy dependence on rushing pipelines is set to change. it's not just russian and international energy markets that are intertwined, especially in germany's east. more than a few manufacturing companies have focused on trade, but russia, the fast moving developments are seeing them having to change in a matter of weeks. what had taken them years to build. some are starting to draw contingency plans in a worst case scenario. the final test run. this machine produces high spec, middle wire, the equipment costs up to a 1000000 euros, and his purpose built to suit the customer specifications. until now, businesses been good. this mid sized company, based in the eastern german city of cabinet, is a global market leader. but see yo janski's will shine, doesn't know whether he can keep all his 45 employees. some of his top customers are in russia. the sanctions resulting from russia's invasion of ukraine are now complicating business of america. and what we're currently preparing a contract were several 1000000 euros over the next 2 years. and if the contract can't be fulfilled in its current form resolved, we will of course, need to look for alternative customers who felt that will take time work on this when it was a good currently doing cut and working hours. and in the worst case scenario to layoffs of i feel didn't advise on flips. if i said buffer in the eastern germans city of cabinets, formerly com, march dot many companies have long standing business ties with russia, dating back to the days of communist east germany. at the regents chamber of industry and commerce, we speak to foreign trade expert christoph know that he believes the sanctions imposed after russia's annexation of crimea in 2014 cost this
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