you look at wall street. economic disaster waiting to happen? expect the chinese market to slow down? kyle bass: in the fourth quarter they printed 5.8% gdp growth. that's the lowest in 41 years. they had reverse migration for the first time in 30 years. 5.8 million chinese went from urban back to rural areas. i don't know how you define hard landing but they are in the middle of a hard landing. when you look at what's causing the hard landing. it's amal gulls to what happened in the u.s. greenspan lowered rates to 2%. we started raising rates but then we had subprime lending and everything that went on. that same thing happened in china. china has grown its banking system 1,000 percent in 10 years. it only has 10 or 11 trillion of gdp. what's happening today in the last year they went to 100% lending so you saw in the tier one cities real estate went up 70%. point being, they are going to have a crisis similar to what we had. not the interconnectedness and all the problems the u.s. had with europe. but it's just a cycle. they are in. >> differe

>> you look so good. >> you really do.hat she's talking about. >> go right ahead. >> oh, wow. >> you look gorgeous. >> you look like jessica rabbit. [ laughter ] >> which is a compliment. >> you look awesome. >> oh. >> awe. cassidy, too. oh, my gosh. ladies please hold it together. [ laughter ] >> this is a story of revitalization. i took her color and made it just her red which was making it a bright red like it originally was. >> vibrant red. >> and jenny, put the layers in so she could wear it loose, right out of the shower, it won't look bad. or -- [ talking over one another ] >> we're having a real moment. >> we're talking about the dress. >> look at that body. 60 pounds. >> congratulations. >> bring andrea back in, too. >> congratulations, ladies. >> when it comes to the deserts, he takes the cake. twists on that and guess who else is is coming up. bobby humus after this. what brand of makeup is better for your skin than wearing no makeup at all? neutrogena® cosmetics. powders, concealers and foundations in new shade

if you look long term to future times, have you to keep going to the cloud. however, facebook has been the bellwether because they have continued to perform ever since the ipo came out when they didn't for the first six or nine months. >> that's the one you don't want to have roll over. >> amazon also. you want to see amazon come back with a better quarter. those are the ones i will watch. >> let me point out that i think this speaks to the ongoing discussion we have been having about value versus growth. if you look at intel, for instance, by the way, they beat their earnings estimates for the quarter past but they disappointed on guidance going forward. the stock went up and that indicates to me that value is coming back. put that in contrast with, say, a netflix which disappointed and the stock went way down. i think when you look at apple tomorrow or facebook coming up, the responses may say more about whether value is leading technology and whether that's going to stay the case. >> if you look at stocks like that, maybe people were buying the intels and

if you look at the protest in brazil, you are really looking at a situation where you have a countryis very much divided and politically polarized. the politics of austerity which we all know too well, -- it will be a difficult task. tom: a lot of people that come on our transfixed by asian dx why -- the idea of an asian basket of currencies, removed from japan. give us an update on asian tiger currency. what dynamically going to have? >> again, what we are seeing is a large part of the performance a result of being repressed -- you are seeing some capital inflows consequently, but within to see aould expect weakening trend to emerge once mind, we are in living and working in a demand deficient world and no central bank in the region wants a strong currency. the japanese are very clear in that regard -- i don't think that's the reason they are any different. the bottom line would be to see more gradual weakness. tom: how about olympic deficiency? let's bring it back to brazil -- how to the olympics play into the dynamics of brazil and particularly how did they play with brazil gdp? >

joe: what are you looking for tomorrow? would you want to see?ct the meeting will be a complete yawn. the bigger risk is the boj later this week. joe: got it. scarlet: thank you. joe: coming up, what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. apple falling by more than 7% in after-hours trading, the first quarterly revenue drop in more than a decade, also forecasting a decline in sales for this quarter. falling, now also declining in after-hours trading. ♪ scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" atnese industrial profits tonight at 9:30 p.m. eastern time. the i will be looking at fed decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. tune in to our special starting at 1:00 p.m. downll be here breaking the pre-and aftermath of that decision. don't miss facebook earnings tomorrow after hours. twitter shares down with a forecast that this is as the men's. that is all for "what'd you miss?" thank you for watching. joe: we will see you back here tomorrow. Âi ton: with all due respect amtrak, it seems like you have an itty bitty problem with your br

when you look at the service industry, i think we still have a good journey ahead of us. >> and it's about not only that pivot, so from industrial to services but also the consumer as well. you were saying to me about the middle class is how pivotal it is in the growth. >> if you look at china, it's the most perceived history for a country. and we still have only a few portion of people from japanese people that are in the middle class and it's a booming economy. if you look at the future, more and more people will join the middle class in china. we continue to grow in the next decade at a very high rate. >> that's disappointing so far, so many europeans and western companies go into china and spend a lot of money building up a presence. and they don't quite get the bang for their buck. are you disappointed with what you have seen in china so far or pretty happy? >> you have to look at chinese history. if you look back at chinese history, china by far has been the most important power in the world until the beginning of the 19th century. then there have been some tough century and now

you look at the macronumbers you might look at russia and brazil without the labels so the macronumbers oath our commodity affected are driven economies and so what happens to commodities has affected both of them in a macrosense. both of them have opted flexible exchange rates, both of them have opted to let the exchange rate float. in the case of russia particularly they are the only market that has no capital controls, never has an effect vladimir putin has talked about often to say this is a point of pride for the russian economy. anthony: bruce are emerging markets a big focus for you? >> we do invest in emerging markets and russia has done all the right things since the sanctions hidden since commodities collapsed and that's a big part of what they have produced and their economy slipped into recession. since that's happened the central bank is taken very aggressive actions to capitalize on the banks to make money available to raise rates to support its currency and with all that russian bonds of titan from a present yields to about 4% yield. priscilla may have a hand the leadersh

so you mean to look at that data, you have to show the court what you are looking at, , then havech steprts, congress, and the administration look at it each time you did that -- yes. it was not just nsa going in there and running around. this was a very deliberate program for a specific need. emily: the prism program was also in place. a program to secretly collect information from u.s. technology companies. gen. alexander: under fisa. prism allowed us to see the new york city subway. that was the first part. emily: was it a backdoor? gen. alexander: no, it was a court order. is a wiretap a backdoor -- no. prism was the modern-day wiretap. emily: you maintain the tech companies did know about this, even though they claimed they did not? gen. alexander: they were served the court orders. that is what the verizon orders and all the others that are public now show. they were, by law, required to do that. mark: so when tim cook or zuckerberg or larry page says we had no idea this was happening, we are outraged -- gen. alexander: the issue comes not at that. it is a little more nuanced. the

dylan, when you look at the exit polls, you look at the numbers, you look at how well the front-runners did last night, what you see is you see them kind of coalescing around their core base, the people who have supported them until now but also adding some ground. in the case of donald trump, he pretty much really swept through most of those categories and won those supporters. >> yeah. i mean i think that's absolutely right, and i think this is how you know that the race is nearing its end. i mean, you know, certainly if ted cruz were going to make a case that he still had a chance here, you know, he says the northeast was donald trump territory. fine, but he's going to have to demonstrate that he at least had some support among, you know, some sort of key groups, some sort of key set that can give him more momentum. now he's moved on and he's looking for that in indiana. but i think the case that donald trump is making is that he has, at least among republicans, that he actually does have a broad base of support. he spent so much time talking about what donald trump's ceiling is in t

--s is an environment with if you look within the market, what you find is value-oriented stocks and ors which have been leading for the last few weeks still looking very cheap. it's a value of styles at a 35% discount to the broader market that compares to an average of only 20%. tom: richard, thank you. a great briefing there on economics, fixed income, and equities. we will continue that discussion. a week of international economics. we will be joined from beyond the research; a lot of thoughts on the research and veracity. it's a fancy francine word. francine: good word. vonnietom: the veracity of earn. wieser andb alphabets/google. bloomberg "surveillance." ♪ it has been a brutal quarter for global banking. in this hour, jpmorgan will report a trim staff in hong kong. oil and equities rallied. oil pulls back a little bit. draghi on the 21st, yellen on the 27th. we consider a failed business plan this morning. everyone wants a piece of yahoo! it will be interesting. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," live from our world headquarters in new york. francine lacqua is i

and let me show you why. we look at european banks. alked about deutsche bank being the next lehman brothers. you see the tight correlation. so it stands to reason that if yields go higher, european banks go higher. and a lot of things can go higher, like japanese banks. once again, just the other side of the same coin here, very strong correlation with the japanese banks which are really at the heart with the negative interest rates and stronger yen. you remember that story. again, strong correlation here. if the yields go higher, japanese banks go higher, too. that supports all of us. now, let's bring it home. goldman sachs you talked about earlier, we're into resistance here. maybe not the greatest entry point for a trade. but you've outperformed the s&p by 10% off of that low. once again, higher yields, better for the banks, better for the rest of us with a 16% weight in the s&p. this is the tlt, just the inverse, bond prices. you can see the lower high in place here. it tells me you're going to get a breakdown. lower in price, high

depending on what metric you look at. u point, okay, well, because of the great recession, you would expect things to have not been that great. but then you also point out more broadly over a longer period of time, the stock underperformed. >> what i'm saying is, the you could definitely justify the board's decision here. but at the same time, you could also justify that this is not one man's position to really move this stock. it's really going to move with what the fed's doing, what the overall economy is doing. that's where i question the fairness. >> also moving today perhaps on zelman downgrading it. that did happen earlier. as she's reminding me right now they downgraded it today, as well. so down like 7%. we like it or no? >> i don't know. i want to see what happens. i still think when you look at the space, the space is going to be okay throughout the remainder of 2016. we have talked about toll, orton, names you could look at on a day where this name is down significantly. >> okay. coming up, the missing link, the

so if you want to look here. -ins the s&p cash. these are the numbers. key in on that. this is my most important number. that's flat on year, so if you don't have the stomach to watch this thing trade all the way down to the 200-day moving average. this is where you bail on the market, this is where you buy it unless we break through here. then you bail and you get b.k.'s market, and i think we visit 1865 again in the s&p if we breach the 200-day moving average 2014 to the downside. >> we trade against flat on the year up through 2116 or so. those are the bottom line levels. >> correct. >> tim, where do you stand on that? mark go on yesterday saying we could go to 22100, but we usually trade, as grasso mentioned, to an s&p valuation of a pe of about 18 and so that's going to hold, so that's going to keep us from going much higher. >> look, i think the s&p is going to trade somewhat sideways from here. i think actually though the correlations are going to break apart because, you know, steve and i do disagree on oiler, and my word of the day is conlessens. said that three

[cheering] and you go back and you look at whitewater, and you look at her cattle deal. remember the cattle deal? she made highest percentage practically in the history of cattle-making. i wonder why that happened, folks? but you take a look, look at this horrible scandal with emails where she is probably being protected, probably being protected. because people that did 5% of what she did have had their lives destroyed and her life is just fine. it looks like she will be the candidate. in a way that is the one i want to run against. we'll peter so badly. we'll peter badly. [cheering] you know what, don't forget i have 17 people running against me, daddy, please be more presidential. i said wait a minute. i've got 17 people throwing barbs at me. i have to take them out before i become presidential, don't i, right? [cheering] you know, they say be nice. we can't be nice. we have two leftovers right now. we can't be nice, we can't be nice until we win it. when i first started, jeb bush had it made. he was going to win, he was presumptive. in florida you speak about unfair,

in this case, if you look ahead in terms of earnings and add that to the inflation rate, you are looking similar to around 18.5. it has been below 20 since 2010 and it tells you we have not had a really it's -- a really expensive market. carol: is this a good gauge question mark what is the correlation? is it reliable? to the extent that you have seen swings in it. the chart was in the late 1990's. internet bubble in stocks, you see the inflation showing up in that particular indicator. market,revious bull 2002-2007, right around the 20 level. it amped up from that. you could see that is when of bed.ell out stabilizing at a lower level this time around. carol: big-name financials again next week. talk to us about financials so important to the market moves here. what are we hearing? is cominggroup tomorrow and morgan stanley and goldman sachs at the beginning of next week. when analysts look at the financial companies, and you look at the overall figures, they are anticipating a 15% decline in first quarter profits. a will see if that becomes bellwether in terms of companies doing better

right now if you look -- if you look at the 30-year meeting and operating earnings, you know, you're 6.7. you could trade a multiple higher than that a little bit more. you're not going to push this thing. you have to throw the old fed model out the window because, you know, we're not going to see that kind of relationship build, but to be a pe, a handle or even two above the longer term median would not be a surprise at aufrmt all sneed a little bit of confidence to build and from a retail investor's standpoint which, of course, is the bread and butter here of wells fargo advisers, you know, they have been afraid. they haven't been confident. >> right. >> they have been sitting on their hands, but if you see just a little bit of confidence bill. you see a little bit of money come into the market and you'll see a little bit more, a little bit less reluctance to push that multiple just a little bit higher. >> started to see a glimmer today, scott in, terms of the sector outperformance in today's market. consumer technology and industrials, they all did well, those are the sectors, i sh

you know, look at your kids. e opportunities you have in education, the opportunities we have for medicine, for communication. but there are tremendous vulnerabilities with it. and we are outpacing the ability for the policy community to keep up. i would not say slow down, but i would say because we have gone so far so fast, how do we help the policy community keep up? and this encryption issue is just such a problem. emily: if communications had been encrypted over the last decade, how would it be different? general alexander: there is a great case. if you encrypt communications and the government cannot read the content, when it is authorized by court order to do so, and if you recall, an al qaeda terrorist in pakistan was contacting someone in colorado. if that was encrypted, all we would know is that they talk to somebody in the united states, but that goes on so often. would not have enough information to stop that. emily: so an attack on the new york city subway may have happened, as you say, if communicatio

and if you look at social networking, you are probably looking at more and more video on facebook and instagram that you ever have before. more and more people are creating their first video. we actually saw during the ice bucket challenge if you remember that. >> for sure. >> it was the first time for hundreds of thousands of people that they created a video be o facebook. and it was because it was just as simple as it had never occurred to a lot of people that they could do that. and so you think we're just beginning to see the transformation of our mobile devices into things that have a lot of moving pictures on them. and where we feel comfortable. >> but my point s and it goes way beyond data. >> i think it does. there is infrastructure. if you just look at live alone, the amount of difficult infrastructure problems that need to be solved in order to simultaneously stream the same frame at the same moment in time to hundreds of thousands of people all around the world. >> your dd didn't just wake up and start doing this. >> we have an amazing engineering team and part of what we a

you wouldn't look for the neighborhood where they blend in, you would want to pull it out and say let'sunderstand where we begin to look. that's what that unit did. its job was mostly done because of the adverse publicity. it was basically radio active. the n.y.p.d. radio intelligence burrow is made up of more than 700 people. transferring those two detectives did not break the model and the fact that ted cruz and the sound bite makerings don't understand that is not surprising. >> so we just got a minute but i want to ask you, you've talked before about how we shouldn't over react on the basis of fear. i look at trump and cruz's proposals as not real proposals. does that have a real consequencive policy? do you worry there's another big attack? >> sure. the responsibility of politicians when you're in an intelligence service is not only to lead the service but telling the country how to respond. i think politicians in this environment have the responsibility to cool it off. we do not have a significant terror problem in the united states. the facts don't show that. >> stay with us. whe

you look at levels of unemployment. you look at levels of economic growth.ts a slowing in the u.k.. that will be the key driver when you look at sterling, bond deals going forward. that suggests weaker sterling, lower bond deals and maybe it suggests the bank of england and play. -- in play. anna: economists predicted everything could be done by the bank of england. test bank of england if we voted for brexit. -- bank of england if we voted for brexit. nicholas: it is how you respond to a slowing economy. the bank could do a lot. other central banks have been limited. it would like -- it is likely they would work to reduce interest rates and do more in the way of qe. the bank has space to do both of those. qe has been at this level for many years now. anna: let's talk about some of the strategies. a number of ideas in your notes this morning. european financials is one of them. the concern in some quarters about use of codes and whether than might be less keen they were in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. where do you stand on those? nicholas

did you hear from members of the chinese government? kyle bass: i didn't. but look at the i.m.f. out of the last 210 recessions they called exactly. it's not their job. their job ising to bullish. it's to provide support and confidence. you just can't believe it. european officials said anyone betting against greece's sovereign debt will never make a dime. guess what? they defaulted and they lost 80 point. you have a 20 cent recovery if you held greek debt. you can't listen to them. >> announcer: revealed. what happened behind the scenes that may have changed the 2008 financial crisis. did a whisper from kyle bass. ♪ [engine revs] ♪ ♪ [engine revving] the all-new audi a4 is here. this just got interesting. why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas

and may i say for as beautiful as you look that day you look even more beautiful tonight. [ applause ] now, you on the other hand, mr. president, have aged a little. what happened to you? when you were sworn in you looked like the guy from the old spice commercials. now you look like louis gossett sr. i never said this to anyone before, but maybe you should start smoking again. is this the change you were talking about? mr. president, look at your hair. if your hair gets any whiter, the tea party is going to endorse it. >> they say diplomacy is a matter of carrots and sticks. and since mrs. obama got to the white house, so is dinner. you're very skinny. she doesn't let you eat. i felt weird about eating dessert. i left it untouched. i've never done that before. you know the real reason people thought you were from kenya had nothing to do with your birth certificate. it's because you lost so much weight we thought you were the guy who won the boston marathon. this is how you know this country's in bad shape. our president is starving. north korea is sending him food aid. >> the quote

if you look up or cure hathaway and you look at it under its client tag, you can look at the performanceanalytics and go to the performance tab and look at it in different ways. this is looking at the year-to-date total return performance of the various stakes that they have in various companies. it's a 2.9% total return year to date. the berkshire stock has actually performed better than have these underlying publicly traded holdings. it does not account for the private holdings that workshare +++ that performance. scarlet: good stuff in the be cool -- and a big weekend for berkshire hathaway holders. the canadian economy is on track for the fastest growth in more than a year but they might have a set act in the month of february. tracy: our bloomberg tv canada anchor joins us for more. the canadian economy turned negative in february, how much of a concern is that? >> the markets and the dollar are treating it is no concern at all. part of the reason is that we are still tracking for a strong first-quarter number. you have been seeing this negative number for february, down 1/10 of 1%

you look at wall street. economic disaster waiting to happen? do you expect the chinese market to slow down? kyle bass: in the fourth quarter they printed 5.8% gdp growth. that's the lowest in 41 years. they had reverse migration for the first time in 30 years. 5.8 million chinese went from urban back to rural areas. i don't know how you define hard landing but they are in the middle of a hard landing. when you look at what's causing the hard landing. it's amal gulls to what happened in the u.s. greenspan lowered rates to 2%. we started raising rates but then we had subprime lending and everything that went on. that same thing happened in china. china has grown its banking system 1,000 percent in 10 years. it only has 10 or 11 trillion of gdp. what's happening today in the last year they went to 100% lending so you saw in the tier one cities real estate went up 70%. point being, they are going to have a crisis similar to what we had. not the interconnectedness and all the problems the u.s. had with europe. but it's just a cycle. they are in. >> d

when you look at a of companies, the u.s. care sector, technology, banks, market. if you go down the line. companies that deserve to have a huge premium relative to the global peers. it is relative safety of the environment, i think. >> you had a great chart, and it has been in the downtrend. is barely even a blip. the long-term trend has been a weekly basis. >> the japanese yen. >> here is the basis of the yen and what it has done today. major currencies that have cross with again are seeing declines. the south african rand, and you can also flip this over to look at the year to date, and you will see similar movement obviously of more magnitude in terms of movements. all of the major currencies falling versus the japanese yen if you look at the debate of the pound, following the most versus the japanese yen. also looking at the forecast for the yen, this is fxfs which looks at currency. here are strategists looking for weakening in the yen, this is where the forwards are trading. this is what the market is saying, strategist

thank you, camilla, for coming on. and look, if you had somebody who called you up, and on the "halftime report" they say that it is a winner, and my friend pete says to buy it, what do you say? >> well sh, my clients establis baseline equity position, and around that we have to determine if we like it or cautious and right now we are cautious for three reasons. >> still are? >> yes. the markets are melting up now, and that is going to be continuing, and three underlying reasons to be cautious for getting ag grgressive in the stocks, and first of all in the golden age of the scentral ban r bankers and gone from zero the negative interest rates and a penalty for that somewhere down the road. and secondly, the pes are not cheap right now, and so are we under the belief to have elevated pes and another term because we have a zero interest rate environment, and the stock is going to be selling at higher multiples and the tape is not telling it well, because you have telecom, and utilities with the highest performing sector, and mar

when you start looking at populations, one of the things you see is that those in here that look like me that are not hispanic are disappearing. we are literally dying out. now, let me tell you why i say that. if you look at the national figures, for example, and you look at the last census decade, for example, from 2000 to 2010 and you look at the children so that you see what is coming will you find is that the number of non-hispanic white children declined by about 4 million. the number of hispanic children increased more than that. so if you just concentrate and hispanics are simply one of the immigrant groups, you can see how important these populations are to us simply maintaining a population. that is not to talk at all, pointing out something, not only are we dying out because we are not having enough kids, long-term, but we that look like we're getting older and older so that if we look at immigration we need to see in that not only something that is impacting is now, but will impact us in the long-term and is something that if it does not occur america will demographically n

in person you won't look as good. they are saying, i just assume when i watch you on tv you won't look good in person. >> i want to look good and better here because i get paid to do this. i don't get paid to walk around. >> what about a quick story over weekend. i'm in home goods. diamond is in the car. >> your dog. >> diamond the dog. she turn, looks diamond, me, diamond, me. i know you, you are diamond from fox 29. >> your dog's face. >> so cute. >> i will tell you my grandson sack, 16 months old, all weekend long, jack. >> yes. >> they didn't recognize him from facebook. >> well, yeah, maybe the tv show. he was on friday. thanks for watching. >> you post a lot of pictures on facebook. >> you you know why i did that. >> i don't want to get yelled at. >> call your mother and while you are at it call your dad and do it right now or we will sue your face. thinks actually what is happening in shanghai. >> i know, this is tricky. adult children, adults, they have to provide their aging parents with emotional, financial,

if you look at that yields.hen you hade is governor kuroda going negative rates taking markets by surprise. the white line is a 40 year. when you think the 40 year, 30 year and below 0.4% and they started that yesterday. bringing you back to euro, how much do we know about the negative effects of negative rates? governor kuroda's pointing to we do not know. that is the chart. confidence inout negative rates as a tool to delay growth inflation has been pretty low. we know its effectiveness is untested. the side effects are pretty evident. the impact on bank probability and how that can be counterproductive and willingness to lend. as i just said, negative interest rates are currents -- are currency policy. we have decided within the channel is not working. francine: we start with the swedish swiss -- swedish central bank and coronas going up. no one is accepting that appreciation you are giving them. is everyone -- it is a race to the bottom. they have stopped working effectively. find anver going to agreement be

and -- >> he looks like you. >> he does look like you. >> a little bit. >> can you do the eyebrow?, the thing my mom used to do. you can make it go up? >> what about british accent though, can you do that? >> no. >> don't even go there. >> would you like a spot of tea? >> i guess. >> who do you look like? over the years? >> i don't know. >> look into that camera. >> i don't know. that one. >> you tell us. >> okay, i'll go this camera. i don't know. when i was younger, which was a really long time ago, people used to tell me i look like courtney cox. >> i still think so. >> i don't know. i don't know. >> when she was pull up on stage by bruce springsteen. >> that's when she was discovered. >> that's right. >> let's talk about people who sing on stage. adele's muse kick invoke a lot of emotion in people, a lot of people will cry. by the way somebody just said when they saw you sit down here, they cried. >> awe. >> we had a good time back in the day. >> good times. >> we started this show basically. >> we had a lot of laughs. >> we did. >> we had a lot. >> we laughed. we cried. >> and

but if everyone like you is looking at china, what are you actually looking at in china? geoffrey: right now, again, it's do no harm, please, no more bad news, and we're going to get march reserve data in a week or so, and probably markets are going to look for not only the outflows starting to ebb a bit, but is there any prospect of china actually surprising to the upside in growth, and then people, you know, want to put money not just to work in china, but in emerging markets in general, see what's going on, here, for example. so can now e.m. use this opportunity with a dovish fed, with a stable china, and then turn risk commodities, everything around into a proper response case? that hasn't happened yet. tom: and that sets up china. we'll do this in our next section with greater detail. with that said, dr. yu, bring that back to what it means for the developed nations so the u.k. for germany with its link to china and what does it mean for the u.s. dollar and america? geoffrey: it is a compelling upside surprise story for growth. then i think for all these developed ma

you look at what's happened with u.s. eel and all these great companies, these once, you know, incredible companies. and it's being taken because of devaluation, all of the devaluations. it makes it impossible, it makes it impossible for the companies to compete. we're losing our jobs. companies are moving to mexico. mexico's becoming the new china. [ boos ] >> we've got to stop it. we're going to stop it. what they're doing -- what they're doing especially in asia but especially china, you look at what they're doing with the dumping. forget the dumping, what they're doing with devaluation of their currencies is just unbelievable. and we have people that don't do anything about it because our politicians are all taken care of by lobbyists and special interests. and they're told ton do anything. not that they're stupid. they're told not to do anything. >> but i guess where the -- i guess it's a razor's edge in some ways. you say you'll negotiate free and fair deals. okay, say we limit imports from china, vietnam, depending

guy: you look at what happened -- you look at pc inflation, really big moves. inflation part of the story is fascinating. if you put the data to one side, it is all about sentiment. while sentiment might be starting to turn on the inflation next vacation, the market cannot figure out how the central bank can respond. >> this is exactly right. i think the fed is trying to be clear, it is less about economic data in the u.s. and more about noble sentiment. and about global growth. concerns over dollar concerns. guy, thank you very much. he will be back in just under an hour with "on the move." the u.s. earnings season kicks off today. these are the numbers from alcoa. the first company to report earnings across the board are expected to show the steepest buffet drop led by a wipeout in the energy sector caroline has been breaking down the numbers and taking a look at what could be a brutal first quarter. it is going to be one of those ones where the energy of that sector is battering the performance of everybody else. if the analyst live up to the expectation, pro

you look like you're 26 years old. and 17. 26 years and 17 years. will you tell me if i'm right.y 26 years old. 26 years, 17 years. you tell me if i'm right. so they get fired rather ruthlessly by somebody that looked like he was upper mid level management, and somebody had their cell phone going and most of you saw the deal. and i thought it was terrible. i was sitting home, i'm watching the news, and i see 1,400 people get fir from carrier. and the man said, we're going to mexico, essentially, you're fired. yeah, i did well with you, but you're fired. that's right. we'll fire hillary. hillary, you're fired! she'll be fired. if she ever gets a chance to run. i think she's being protected. one of your local newscasters, a great person actually said to me, what do you think of hillary, do you think she'll be allowed to run, because she's going to win, because you know it's a rigged system. by the way, just so you know, the democrat system is rigged, but the republican system is even worse, i will tell you. because with the democrats, you have the super delegates and, you know, tha

you look at ual and dal and american airlines and you see underperformance in the overall picture. we look at some of the share performance recently and they look fantastic but when you think about where they trade right now, you look at the valuation of some of the names i would think that ual, we said this yesterday, i don't understand and i think this name should be a $70 stock. >> well, it's been a tough environment. but that hasn't stopped our next guest firm from turning in a solid 2015. they have an annualized return of 24% since inception and is up for an investor choice award tonight for its long-term performance. you invest primarily in the health care and consumer sector. two areas we talk a lot about. how do you view health care? >> it's a turbulent time as you know. you have bad news in the specialty pharma space. you recall the hillary clinton tweet from last year and you have several specialty pharma companies talking about it and all together we view this as a one in 10 year buying opportunity. something i haven't seen since 2009. >> i was going to ask you about that

>> you are looking from a headline? >> i guess it is that he appears on good day new >> that's good . anyway like him or not right now he is the most famous man in the world. you tell me more people are talking about him now than barack obama. >> it could be positive and it could be negative. >> there is a lot of buzz. we appreciate him coming on good day new york. >> we are going live on the fios is not cable. we're wired in the last 10 years our competitors have received a few awards. but we've received a few more, who ranked us highest in customer satisfaction for the third year in a row. only fios has the fastest internet on the most awarded network. now get super-fast 100 meg internet tv and phone for just $69.99 per month, cable can't offer internet speeds this fast at a price this good, jane likes to mix things up. that' s why she loves new light & fit greek non-fat yogurt mousse. so fluffy and airy it' s her new 80 calorie obsession. light & fit feel free to enjoy. for naturally beautiful hair, discover the whole

rich, what are you looking at? >> look, steve talked about the fact that not everyone has capitulated, but this guy has. we've established our stocks. i've been out of this market since 1999. no one likes to get stopped out. you have to respect that risk. let me show you why i'm respecting those stocks and why as we talked about the potential for an exhaustive blow off the top through the new highs is quite possible. the first thing we're going to look at is the canadian dollar. why are we looking at the luni? this is the key commodity currency. look at this v-shape reversal here. the 50 crossing back above the 200 day. you're taking out prior support. the last time we saw this break above the 200 day was two years ago, back in 2014. when crude topped. this is dollar weakness. that's driving everything right now. crude oil, we talked about this. crude oil above the 200 day moving average, just like your luni for the first time in two years. you have to respect that bullish price action coming out of doha as well. on

meantime, here's what sells coming up on "fast." >> here's looking at you, kid. >> here's looking at apple. as the tech giant celebrates its 40th birthday today, but what about the next big tech stocks you can own for the next 40 years? the four names our traders are betting on big. >>> plus, gold's doing something it hasn't done since this movie was a hit. and it could just be the start of a much bigger move when ""fast money" returns." >>> woe are wishing a very happy birthday to apple, the company skel bralting the anniversary of its founding on this day 40 years ago by steve jobs, steve wozniak and ryan wayne. we're joined now by apple co-founder steve wozniak. a pleasure to be able to speak to you. >> a pleasure to be able to talk to you. >> does it feel like just yesterday you were sitting around in a garage just tinkering? >> i can go back to that point in time, and i kind of smile because we were so young and naive. we didn't know, you know, like if you didn't know something is possible but try it. we had an idea. we had no business experience and thought if you start a compa

>> reporter: it is an extremely tough thing to hear when you look at where the unemployment levels are since the financial crisis and one that leaders are trying to offset. just a half hour ago we heard from angela merkel speaking alongside president obama saying, look, this industrial fair is not just about touting the benefits provided for corporations. this is for people, too. she acknowledged concerns over jobs and said we want safe and secure jobs as part of this ttip plan. the big question remains, what are the provisions in the trade pack to secure jobs on both sides of the atlantic. we heard some back and forth between merkel and obama this morning saying we both want free trade, but obama said native america is best. we want you to invest in the u.s. and angela merkel keeps saying the same. you have the likes of general electric and siemens explaining here in hanover. and the message is that the doubters that you suggest, that's why we saw great protest here before obama landed in hanover. 35,000 people on saturday alone came out to the streets protested the ttip. no doubt abo

look at it as a positive trade even. you could even look at it as a hedge, you know. and i do highlight in our economy, there is still meaningful chance of recession in the u.s. in the next few months. >> lower than january, correct? >> so my estimate of bear market is lower than in january. that's because the fed significantly is changing the tone, right? so i think the risk of a bear market is lower. i said 50% in january. now maybe 30%. 30% is still a high number. economic recession according to our economy is about 28%. and recession is arguably more severe condition than the bear market. it can have a bear market without a recession. these numbers are still actually fairly elevated. we're still in a cycle seven, eight years. i think gold can serve two purposes. it can be a currency against negative yields, and further increase of central bank balance sheets. it can also be a hedge portfolio. and there are two sides to the story. we were shorting gold for many years, now they're long. >> i want to underscore what you said before, and that is the last leg up to 210

you do this? and it may really blow over. look blown over certainly in other areas and it certainly could blow over here. >> but you've been worried and negative and you've been outspoken about what you think about the u.s. stock market. worrying about the market. >> that's a different question. >> you are still -- we can answer that, though. when it pertains to the market, you are still worried about the u.s. stock market? >> i still am very cautious, yes. i'm extremely cautious about the market. that is not so much related to china as related to the experiment that we're doing and i'm not the only one that believes this. you can't have a better reserve to low interest -- negative interest rate without creating tremendous bubbles and creating the wealth gap. and it's doing a lot of things that are unforeseen, has unforeseen possibilities. it doesn't keep me from investing and we have a lot of long positions, but then we have a huge short position on. and the short position obviously is not working that well. but i'm not changed m

if you look, chris christie did much better. if you look, marco rubio did much better. in fact, marco rubio right now has more delegates than kasich. he has more delegates. so many others. they have actually done more. all they had to do was hang around. they thought it was inappropriate and a lot of people don't like seeing it. it is like a spoiled person that says, i'm just staying for whatever reason. as soon as kasich gets hit with the first negative ad, he has had none. bing, that's the end of that. it's the only thing he can say. today, we came up even with hillary. we will beat hillary so easily. remember this, i was not going to run according to everybody. i ran. i was not going to sign for may, which basically you sign your life away. i signed for may. everybody started saying, wow, we put in financials. the financials were phenomenal, far better than people thought, fwrat financials. i built a great company with the help of my sons and my daughters and with the help of my family, frankly. it's pretty great. we built a great, great company. that was great. peop

i think you could look to do a put calendar. think you want to sell april options and look down to the 210 strike and you can sell the april 210 puts at $2.50 and look out to june and buy the june 210 puts for $12.50. you're paying $10 for that spread. over the next couple of weeks, i do not think that the stock is going to be trading at 210. you basically then have the opportunity to look to sell another put, maybe turn it into a calendar again and selling something against the junes that you own or turning it into a vertical, but in a stock like this that's moving around a whole heck of a lot where expectations are very high and just had this newsy event, i think you want to look to finance puts and don't want to be long premium just on an outright basis. >> what do you think of the trade? what's going to come next in terms of catalysts for the stocks? we do have earnings and monthly sales figures that will come out. we're acting as if there's no other data points aside from data points related to the model 3 that will come out

when you look at people who saved albanians, look no further than president bill clinton. when you look for a person who really cares about people, who made a difference to people, there would not be an independent nation without president bill clinton. i know how hard he worked. it gives me great pleasure to introduce to you a wonderful, wonderful president of the united states -- i want to tell you before he comes out that hillary clinton will do the same types of things that president bill clinton did when it comes to the balkans, to caring about people, when it comes to making sure lives are saved. it is my great pleasure to introduce to all of you the person we have all been waiting for, our wonderful president bill clinton. [applause] ♪ president clinton: thank you. thank you very much. thank you. thank you. let's give congressman eliot engel another big hand. [applause] i want to thank assembly member mark jones, the first albanian american elected in the united states. thank you. councilmember andrea cohen, thank you. and the president of the college of mount st. v

if you analyze the last 12 months you are looking at about 17 billion. so you are not too far off those numbers. if you can reduce the cap ex putter you can start to close that gap. the question is one of time can the industry restructure fast enough? do oil prices stay too low for that to happen? >> do you think this takes pressure off -- >> i think it probably does. this is about delivering on operations of the business after what was a pretty weak fourth quarter for a number of reasons. and i think this is a testament to the ongoing restructuring not just within bp but the rest of the industry. the industry is in crisis and it's got to respond in this front foot way. >> if you compare them to someone like shell. absorbing the $50 billion deal they've just done. if you contrast to two of them you need to hear the -- >> more cost absolutely. we'll see that hopefully next week when shell report. we have others reporting tomorrow. i would expect them to again report significant cost savings. similar the 20% year on year we're seeing here at bp today. >> bp

and you should know what you're looking for. i'm curious which retailers you think will not be here in a few years. putting you on the spot. charles: i would rather talk about who i think will be here. i think the fifth avenue in the world will be here and they will improve the experience. you know what the brand is to you know what it is. fani have always been a big and i think they have lost their way little bit. they were the store where you knew the brands there. they advertise that. they do not do it as much anymore. a bit more on facebook as we are talking about it. apparently sang data on facebook add trends today. move that up. thank you. was incomplete and the data did not provide proper context. that is what is being said in a statement to bloomberg news. was a tweet involving facebook that put pressure on the stock. facebook obviously addressing that. we want to get it out to our viewers. facebook, a quick update on the share price right now, we see facebook still down .2% right now. things it is doing well, who do yo

, you are looking at the audience's response to that story. people have talked about google and search and they have suggested that at some point, you know where i am going, that a challenge to search will take it from people being able to use their friends on facebook as a means to search. has that idea gotten off the ground? guest: there are a couple of things that people are excited about using that for. charlie: thinking, my friend i can trust them more. and they understand me better than anyone. guest: so finding people on facebook is already fantastic, you can find relatives, friends, and just looking for people and that is common. we also started to roll out the ability to find what people are saying about a topic, maybe breaking news or what is at interest right now. and now we are starting to roll out post search. charlie: what is the method for watching the growth of this? guest: we would like to see it out. part of the reason that we put so much energy on this is that in early days, we saw that this was not just public figures among