if you look at credit alone, you would not see it, would you? oks like a lot of volatility, you zoom out to three to five years, these are narrow and tightly wound up. all these things are true, and your points on cash alternatives is a great story. i think investors have a hard time moving around their portfolios quickly. you are seeing it in the diversion from underlying cash, people are looking for insurance, they just -- jonathan: there has not been much high-yield supply coming into the market area is that affect as well? >> there aren't supply and demand dynamics that influence where yields are spread. i would go back, we do not find a huge valuation anomalies. i think that is a longer-term read if you are looking for that yield, i put more money in emerging markets. jonathan: give me a little more on what you think about em. >> i am looking at a three-year horizon. it has lagged since 2011. this could be a multi-year cycle. jonathan: i want to get a market check on where bonds have been through the week. yields up at the front end, the 2-y

francine: are you looking at ideal -- ipoing any other units? hamed: we have india, our ,ospitality business, turkey another business in saudi arabia. the reality is you can take all of these businesses public at the right time. within the coming three years, we will probably have india going public. hospitality, as well going separately. francine: how much bigger will you be? i hope to speak to you before but if i speak to you in five years. how much will your holdings be worth? mohamed: we should be double in value. 25%hould have grown 20% to on an annual basis. hopefully my boards put that as a focus. i think we are capable of doing that. we just have to focus and make sure we have the right people. we do this day and night. that is how we do business. francine: expositions or organic growth? mohamed: i would say organic growth. we haven't done much acquisitions. i am expecting we do more in the coming two years. francine: coming up next, going from bricks and mortar to retail. the push into e-commerce and how his company could become the amaz

you do look at that and you think, i mean this over democrats and a lot of us got in trouble in 2016 because we look at president obama or democratic performance say in western pennsylvania and we said, democrats can't get worse than this, right? if these folks elected and african-american dude named barack hussein obama, certainly they can vote for a white woman. okay, or not. they can actually -- i just knew in 2016, the same in minnesota people think i thought we hit the low mark with obama, like democrats can't do any worse than this. this is our absolute floor, and then with hillary clinton it went at much lower. i guess you're right you could, could you get to 75% noncollege -- i mean, i can remember which poll it was this weekend had trump among noncollege whites in the '70s. if you said he got 31% margin can sober in the high 60s, right? maybe. i don't know. what do you guys -- >> sure. i mean, you can always get worse. [laughing] unit, it's fascinating you know, one of the values of the report is its painting on a canvas that is also influenced by a lot of other folks who are

you might want to look back there. what's more important is for 28 states, more than half of your eligible voters are noncollege whites that include again wisconsin, michigan, ohio, and pennsylvania. and even if you project this up to 2036, most of those 28 states will have at least 45% of their eligible voters as noncollege whites. that tells us something about how the electoral college might be different for different parties over time. so i'm going to stop here except to say, that these projections by education, by race, by age, we're doing for the whole country and for each of the 50 states. these are the background, this is the bed rock of these simulations we're doing and what the simulations do is make different assumptions about the turnout of these groups and the voting behavior of these groups and now going to pass the baton to rob who will tell us all about that. >> thanks, bill. so, just to recap a little bit, the country is changing. it's been getting more racially diverse, and getting older and educated. w

francine: are you looking at ipoing any other units or portfolios? hamed: we have india, our hospitality business. we have turkey, another business in saudi arabia. so the reality is you can take all of these businesses public at the right time. i think within the coming three years, we will probably have india going public. we will probably have hospitality as well going, going separately the public root. francine: how much bigger will you be? i hope to speak to you before but if i speak to you in five years, how much will your holdings be worth? mohamed: i think we should be double in value. we should have grown 20% to 25% on an annual basis. and i hope that my management and my boards really put that as a focus. and to be honest, i think we are capable of doing that. we just have to focus and have to make sure we have the right people to do it. and we do this day and night. and that is really how we do business in our region. francine: that is acquisitions or that is organic growth? mohamed: i would say organic growth. if you talk about acquisition

francine: are you looking at ipoing any other units? hamed: we have india, our hospitality business, turkey, another business in saudi arabia. the reality is you can take all of these businesses public at the right time. within the coming three years, we will probably have india going public. hospitality, as well going separately. francine: how much bigger will you be? i hope to speak to you before but if i speak to you in five years. how much will your holdings be worth? mohamed: we should be double in value. we should have grown 20% to 25% on an annual basis. hopefully my boards put that as a focus. i think we are capable of doing that. we just have to focus and make sure we have the right people. we do this day and night. that is how we do business. francine: expositions or organic growth? mohamed: i would say organic growth. we haven't done much acquisitions. i am expecting we do more in the coming two years. francine: coming up next, going from bricks and mortar to retail. the push into e-commerce and how his company could become th

you look at it as if you were an analyst for the project in 1925 and look at some trends republicans have been doing very well and trends that would never change that they would always win the battle can african-americans woulbattle ans both republicans and working-class voters were trending and of course those things will change dramatically within just a few short years. could you look at some of the factors? in the long term these demographic projections what it might not hold as we go for a number of years but also, what are the scenarios that you see in the report seems to be the most likely, what might change in what seems to be most unlikely? >> it's not just 1925 commits any number if i told you that republicans were about to win seven of ten with a landslide if i have told you that in the 2009 the republicans ar were going to nominate somebody that what his campaign off saying that they were a bunch of rapists except for the few that fo were good people and when he would win i'm a skeptic and i would have said no way that isn't not going to happen. these things have a way of

i think the reality is when you look at the ecb and the single mandate, if inflation is low and yes, you squint, it is on an upward trajectory, but it is still well below where the ecb would like it to be. it is not being helped by the strength of the euro and the pastor affect. i think they had a very fine balance act to make sure that the euro doesn't strengthen too much. otherwise the inflation level will come back down and they will not be able to start normalizing policy. lisa: sticking in the city, a question from a viewer, wondering given the flatness of the british yield curve, will we see the likelihood of a much lower terminal rate than, say, in the u.s.? do you think that is the case? iain: i think that is fairly likely. the u.k. has a fair amount of headwinds facing it in the form of brexit. i think that is one of the things that mark carney was indicating today. when he walked back some of the expectations of the market, the may hike is now only 50-50 priced from 85% or 90% earlier this week. if we go through this transition of the u.k. leaving the european union, it pro

and if you look at a long graph, it is trending higher. we do not see this wildfire breaking out yet, but you are feeling it around the edges. anybody who spend time with this data knows in march and april, the base effects of the wireless price decline will come out of consumer prices, that will pop higher. it will make the optics on inflation look a little less friendly, so it is not a reason for the fed this claim on the brakes, but i think the markets will continue to be hyper, aside from everything else. this will be a hot button issue. point whether or not the data, as far as businesses are concerned in investment spending, or the this,er -- i wonder about the complacency as far as the consumer and the strength they provide is a concern, because we have seen the weakness in consumer and retail sales, but when you look at the consumer data that we have, the confidence data, particularly for the wealthy, there are signs they are concerned about the outlook. lara: the economy is a group of us making decisions, and i think that with consu

and if you look at what larry kudlow is saying and what kevin has set is saying, who are the economic advisors, you will see that they are saying exactly that that we are setting up a negotiation and i think we get to a better place. and i think the president then declares victory and i think if you look at the past actions that have taken place, you look at north korea in august last year, people freaked out because the president was being extremely aggressive, tillerson was backing off. and looking lo and behold we have an agreement. you look at afghanistan, the president was talking about pulling out completely. people freaked out. ultimately a solution was had. same thing with syria. just happened last week. so, i think if you look at the pattern, you will see that the president in most cases is a negotiating upfront. sending shots over the bough. and then setting himself up for a solution. i think that's what you have here. ainsley: your thoughts on this as well the head of the e.p.a., scott pruitt. our own ed henry did a pretty intense interview with him 10 days ago. the questio

where were you when it closed about 3%? looking on the 10 year yield, we are below it now. what you want to note has to do with volatility. when we saw that 10 year yield aboutigher after concerns wage inflation in february, it was accompanied by increased volatility, at least higher than where we are now. be drivenit seems to by commodity prices. does that mean it is more transitory? treasury volatility is subdued compared to back in february. have a look at this comparison with the 10 year chinese yield. we are 3.6% on that. that premium has been shrinking. it hit its lowest level since december, 2016. this is because of the prospect of slowing economic growth. mind, the last time this happened and we got to these 2016 isetween 2015 and only thought devaluation. will there be concerns around that? speaking of volatility again, this is cross asset. some people are saying, equity volatility, you have s&p 500 volatility, the vix in white, the euro stock volatility in yellow, and currency volatility in blue. none are as high as in fe

and what are you looking at you look and you say all around the country and all around the world . we're looking at fifty four countries as economies you know so we started with the g. eight and you know over the last few years we've expanded as more and more economies have offered their data online and accessible to our deep learning systems so you know we really are trying to be a robo economist at heart now when you when you talk about that it makes me think that there are times i know some folks who run h f t's and they still like to at some point have some human control are we at the point where really ai is it and the only thing or is there some need for humans in investing oh i think there's some need for humans i mean the needs to be kept in its place the need to be safety guidelines. you know it's been seen that the best chess systems in the world added with just a little bit of human intelligence outperform on average other systems just a little bit of human intelligence makes one prediction system much better than the others so you really the best is a waiting of robo plu

what have you been looking at? which pieces are you picking up? we too are interested in the short end of the investment market. what i think is interesting and notable is that you have seen real stress and strain in investment grade corporate's probably on the front-end and not in high-yield. it has outperformed or underperformed its data. on the high-yield side, we have actually been more involved c'than double d's. the part of the market that confuses me the most in high-yield is the short double d paper. i think it is well over owned. and no upside it all. nothing but downsides. so you know, i think the rotation there is something to look at. jonathan: greg peters sticking with me alongside jim keenan from blackrock and kathleen gaffney. coming up, we're going to run you through some of the markets. a big move in the long end of the treasury curve. 30-year notes down by 90 basis points, upine basis 3% on the u.s. 10 year. down on the two-year. a very small bit of the front end leaves us with a much flatter curve. still ahead, the week ahead fe

francine: when you look at various ipo's, was it to unlock value? you also feel it was a high risk? mr. alabbar: i feel mainly to unlock value. at the same time, i really like putting management under pressure. you are out there in the public eye, under pressure to perform, but, mainly, value creation. i think that is the business we are in. francine: because shareholders understand what you do more and it focuses the mind of managers more? mr. alabbar: that is one, but many of our units under the mother umbrella, i think they are not fairly valued. out as separate entities, you create better value that way. francine: are you looking at ipo-ing any other businesses or portfolios? mr. alabbar: we have our hospitality business, india, turkey, saudi arabia. the reality is you can take all these businesses public at the right time. i think in the coming three years, we will probably have india going forward and hospitality as well going separately the public route. francine: if i speak to you in five years -- i hope to speak to you before, but if i spea

you look at the numbers they put up that is outstanding. d they also got the investment and lending. all that is growth that's what you need and goldman sachs has it i agree with you i think the multiples should put it towards $300. >> but no giddyap. >> full giddyap. >> okay. full giddyap >> still ahead, the pot stock is back we'll talk to the ceo of aurora, one of the biggest hitters in the space and why the group is about to get even hotter plus, retail enemies, best buy and best buy are soaring today we'll explain when "fast money" returns. >>> welcome back to "fast money. welcome back to weed week. the cannabis craze continues to heat up. analysts estimate the marijuana market to hit $57 billion in sales by 2030. that's serious green take a look at the market caps in some industry leaders canopy growth, aurora cannabis is a billion dollar companies. check out this chart aurora up more than 200% over the past year. let's welcome terry booth, the ceo of aurora cannabis which secured a deal to build the world's most high-tech cannabis prod

rewards we may without any penalty whatsoever well if you look at what we had we did a programme with gregg's it for example when they had bragged that you remember what the fear mongers were saying theresa may was one of them saying it would be the end of the world markets would crash sterling would go to zero look sterling is right back at one forty four where we were when bragg's it began yet the stock market's twenty percent higher and today it was announced in the u.k. that they had record low unemployment not seen since since one thousand nine hundred seventy one so can you believe is that credible is any of it credible absolutely not so you know that the situation the production situation hasn't improved that house house prices have skyrocketed there and to bubble territory everywhere in real wages haven't gone up so what's happened the banks lend money as you said to real estate property developers at ridiculous low rates but they take a piece of the action and as these apartments get build built three years later down the road they're not going to sell any of them and these s

jonathan: is that where you are looking more specifically, where on the curve it falls? : more understanding what happens for long-term issuance. jack: i would say if you are right about the dollar, you are a foreign investor,the key is, o come from? those treasury yields look pretty juicy. that is a pretty good return. jonathan: bonnie, what do you make of that treasury issuance we will hear about next week? bonnie: i agree a lot of it has been priced in already. there is talk about that we have stimulus.is fiscal think it is attractive to overseas stimulus.i think it is attractive to overseas investors. although currency costs have risen, the higher yields are attractive. we have heard that from overseas general. in i think there will be support for the market. also we should not forget about the structural pension bid here in the united states. there is a very constant demand for longer dated bonds for that community, particularly going into the end of the year. they are trying to get contributions in before deductibility general. i think there will be support for the

we're not even in the summer driving season. >> all right let's go back to you, you're looking at the technically speaking we should go higher, too, so walk us through it. >> when you look at the charts, there's a really beautiful trend channel forming to the upside right now. this recent move started as a concern over geo political, but it's gotten -- now you've got fundamentals and technicals driving the market he mentioned gasoline and crude oil production in the u.s. is being outstripped by the demand. as long as those two things continue, you see that trend channel, we're going higher. >> thanks. meantime today on the live show we're joined by the godfather of technical analysis he's going to tell us why he sees more trouble ahead for the market rally plus jack ablin has a bold call on the ten year note on the top of the hour. scott? >> thank you so much coming up, final trades are straight ahead on the halftime report well, it's earnings season once again. >>yeah. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there

at amazon you look at apple you look at that flex facebook is going to look different globally even looks better than facebook right now i think all of these stocks are in for you can call it a correction if you want to hate using that word but you can say it if you want they're all going to come in but facebook is a problem for the rest of two thousand and eighteen even though all these other stocks could drop a little bit and pick themselves back up i don't like what facebook has to offer for the rest of two thousand and eighteen i think they got themselves into a pickle now pickles probably a kind word my grandmother might have used that melissa the always insightful and interesting melissa or most of the founder of the stock solution thank you for joining us melissa thanks for having me. and it's time now for a quick break but hang here because when we return our chief correspondent carefully banks tell us about the clamor for a key commodity cobalt which is an interval ingredient in our cell phones in what hard let's go to break through the numbers at the closing bell stocks ov

at it and it how would you sort of look at speaking of which how would you look at some peace some reunification of the koreas yes a bit a lot of people are talking reunification but i mean it's pretty interesting no let's look there's a couple of hurdles in the way and here we have a graphic for you that kind of explains why. going on wages wages are huge they so sell korea the wages are three thirty nine thousand four hundred we're looking at the whole area here china sixteen thousand six hundred japan forty two thousand seven hundred and then you look at the approximate per capita income in north korea it's seventeen hundred now how do you get those two things to meet has to be a slow reunification this is not something that can happen overnight that we're not talking about used in west germany here which also was a troublesome arena for reunification this is much bigger and you have to put a couple of things into play here also does kim jong un want to step down from power because that's probably the way that it would go and for him maybe it's in his best interest take a couple billion sit b

today, when you look at the 50th commemoration of the death of dr. in luther king jr., can you talk about personally how his legacy has affected your work and, specifically, your political future? >> yes. dr. king has been a major influence in my life. just understanding how you invigorate the people and bring the people together, to change big systems. what dr. king did, this was before social media and the things we take for granted now, and he was able to make big differences and change the world. my campaign and my candidacy is completely inspired by the work of dr. king and many others who fought alongside him. >> is that what motivates you? >> this is a special day. >> is that what motivated you to run? was it the victory of doug jones in alabama, another uphill battle democrats talked about? what propelled you to this? >> well, definitely my involvement with the doug jones campaign. i live in talladega county, and we were able to flip it blue. i had a lot to do with that. that was a big motivation and inspiration for me to enter into the race m

you something. xfinity mobile: find my phone. [ phone rings ] look at you.tech stuff is easy. [ whirring sound ] you want a cookie? it's a drone! i know. find your phone easily with the xfinity voice remote. one more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around. >>> welcome back to "fast money. shares of disney down more than 14% from its recent highs but one of its biggest networks launched something that could give them a boost. julia is breaking it down. >> that's right, melissa espn plus is launching today in the u.s. for $5 a month. it's part of a redesigned espn app which includes free news, scores, and highlights and for tv subscribers access to streaming espn the plus subscription includes 10,000 live sporting events in the first year plus original documentaries and exclusive shows, including a new one from kobe bryant. espn plus subscribers won't get sports center or any games of espn or espn 2 from tv but they will get 180 mlb and nhl games and thousands of college sporting events. the espn chief tells us this is a startin

trump: you look at the post office. you look at the post office. the post office is losing billions of dollars and the taxpayers are paying for it because it delivers packages for amazon at below cost. that is not fair for the united states or to our taxpayers. amazon has the money to pay the fair rate at the post office, which would be much more than they are paying right now. the other thing, a lot of retail businesses are going out of business. that is a different and the problem. -- big problem. retailers all over the united states going out of business is. some of the small towns where they have a beautiful main street with stores but they are all gone. that is a different problem that we will have to talk about. if you look at because that we are subsidizing, giving a subsidy to amazon. we are talking about billions of dollars a year. the real cost. a report just came out. they said $1.47, or about that for every time they deliver a package. the united states government, meaning the post office, loses $1.47. so, amazon will have to pay much m

when you look at you, it is looking at the tail risk. at will protect you if we get a bigger rise in volatility than what is normal. i brought the chart with me. this is the skew index. as the vix has been rising, the skew index, it is back down where it was before. that is a lower reading them we usually get. look at it over the past year. that red dotwhat means is investors are not protecting themselves. they are not buying a lot of protection if we should see some tail event. some of the is taking money off the table after we did get a tail event these past few weeks. still, we are not seeing hedging occurring, which is surprising when you think about all that is going on which rate, still some tensions in tech. investors are stubborn even though the vix is above 20. tail risks are not being protected. guy: the average of the vix over the long-term is 19. what is the vix telling us? look atother way to this, the vix gets a lot of flack for not being the best way to measure volatility. we look at the vix curve, these .re options on the

when you look at the u.s. stem, while you see the statutory rate is 35%, companies had that statutory rate of an income of $75,000. that is where you get -- right away you hit the 35%. if you look the effective tax rate on u.s. corporations in 2017, it was 13% or 13.5%. that doesn't mean that if the tax rate they pay. that is not the tax rate they pay. what that tells you is the percentage of their income that they shelter. u.s. companies have gotten used to this tax rate and have been able to shelter through shelters , through changing corporate forms, business forms, tax evasion, all sorts of other ways they have been able to shelter something like two thirds of their tax base. by dropping the rate from 35% to 20% there will be a lot less , sheltering and a lot more returns coming through on the corporate tax. if you look at this, there are all sorts of other benefits that will come through. in the tax bill itself, we also dropped the highest marginal personal income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%. that is a seri

at it and it how would you sort of look at speaking of which how would you look at some peace some reunification of the koreas yes a bit of a lot of people are talking reunification but i mean it's pretty interesting no let's look there's a couple of hurdles in the way and here we have a graphic for you that kind of explains why. going on it wages wages are a huge thing so south korea wages are three to thirty nine thousand four hundred we're looking at the whole area here china sixteen thousand six hundred japan forty two thousand seven hundred and then you look at the approximate per capita income in north korea it's seventeen hundred now how do you get those two things to meet has to be a slow reunification this is not something that could happen overnight that we're not talking about east and west germany here which also was a troublesome reunify reunification this is a much bigger and you have to put a couple things into play here also does kim jong un want to step down from power because that's probably the way that it would go and for him maybe it's in his best interest take a couple bill

i think it's really a sad situation when you look at what happened. many people have said you should fire. again, they found nothing. and, in finding nothing, that's a big statement. if you know the person who is in charge of the investigation, you know all about that. deputy rosenstein, rod rosenstein, he wrote the letter very critical of comey. one of the things i said i fired comey. well, i turned out to do the right thing. because you look at all of the things that he has done and the lies. and you look at what's gone on at the fbi with the insurance policy and all of the things that happened turned out i did the right thing. he signed -- he also signed the fisa. so rod rosenstein who is in charge of this signed a fisa warrant. and he also signed a letter that was essentially fire james comey. he was right about that. he was absolutely right. so we will see what happens. i think it's disgraceful and so does a lot of people. this is a pure and simple witch-hunt. thank you very much. thank you. >> will rod rosenstein keep his job? >> thank you. >> wi

you know if you look. through their limits traffic got that three to four foot to keep up with when he did i left. we stuff to those a level it. always the shot in the lane you have clue for could go on with you didn't you do you think five. creative immune from a we found a part and. more lucky maybe we'd be better off. number one now. that mabel made number. suck the kind they would have because that lady had. a fit it couldn't be built up with one foot in you know one not by phone the next one while it even did where the fuck or made. me feel out of it by a lot of d.d.'s needing got to know i have to buckle your non-binding i'd be a label them up i'm never going to allow plots to be it. was a. matter of life. expectancy but. somehow. i got. out of that out of that much. i don't know how. much i need him ok but you know i'm not good. you know what i'm doing. but i have no additional. oh no i have a longer another the from that develop nuclear bomb but when you logically are moon look. up to. the labs you

you look amazing. and you look amazingly comfortable. when your v-neck looks more like a u-neck... washed. add downy to keep your collars from stretching. unlike detergent alone, downy conditions to smooth and strengthen fibers. so, next time don't half-wash it. downy and it's done. ♪ ♪ >> sudhir: so on the basic level, singapore works in so many ways, security, your family, education. >> anthony: housing? >> sudhir: housing. so in a way, you're kind of numbed into thinking that everything is wonderful. and then you start to wonder after a while, is there another way of life? i think that's the big kind of singapore. >> anthony: so is there angst? >> sudhir: yeah. definitely there's angst. >> tanya: but i think there is no outlet for it. so everybody is going online, but everybody wants to be anonymous about it. >> melanie: even online, they have paid the price for it. people have been let go of their jobs, and that's the price that we have to pay. >> anthony: the price may seem pretty high by american standards. no political dissent, no right to assembly, a restricted press, and li

i think the reality is when you look at the ecb and missing amended, if the inflation is low. ybe if you squint it is in an upward trajectory, it is lower than where the ecb would like it to be. it is not held up by percent of the euro -- so there's a fine balancing act to make sure the euro doesn't strengthen to much, otherwise inflation will come back down and it will not be able to normalize policy. lisa: a question from a viewer wondering given the flatness of the british yield curve -- sing the likelihood any much lower terminal rate than the u.s., do you think that is the case? the u.k. has a fair amount of headwinds facing it in the brexit.acc mark walked back expectations of hike at 80for a rate or 90% earlier this week. as we go through this transition with the u.k. leaving the european union, it probably does mean lower terminal rates are likely here. shift to thiso cap we are seeing between the u.s. and europe, in particular, german yields. we're looking at the gap between two-year german yields is wide, the most on record. how long can this go on? what will we consu

it is a radical trend and if you look at his reelection that's by men were fully. about two or three thousand of them you and then it was really lucky to me to see to continue they really never actually of course you can do what we all vote or you can vote against them because nobody's. had to force you to do something you know and also if you look at the polls four percent of the chinese respondents thinks you know the government they have twice in their government and the sixty eight percent of them when it comes to the government of leadership. i think the chinese government will lead them into a better future before we run out of time let me ask you this about bringing about to the president of china being broke with tradition last october by not naming a successor of the communist party's national congress. clearly you're a supporter of is you think it's definitely not a problem but surely chinese politicians must be wondering what comes next he's not a young man. we don't know basically what happens the ten years from now fifty years from us or whatever is bas

so when you look at this price and you realize that this stock trades at 20 times earnings, there's a lot of people in the analyst community who say that's why it's not so crazy that it trades 20 times earnings. if you have the projections where really significant units are set to double in the next two years, that is incredible growth and stock is up around 6% in the post market trade. melissa: stand by on this conversation, breaking news, microsoft reporting results, nicole? reporter: another beat, so many beats. melissa: it's the economy. reporter: yeah. and top and bottom line, you can see on the earnings per share revenue. stock turned to the downside, you said it was higher. it is down about 1%. we saw microsoft linkedin revenue increased 37%. quarterly revenue and intelligent cloud 37.9 billion. they returned 6.3 billion to shareholder repurchases and business processes was 9 billion and that increased 17%. the profits was up 35% and everybody is using the cloud computing services and last but not least the office 365 productivity suite that also rose. melissa: beat on the top

so then you look at the bench you. start to put those dots together and there was certainly under the surface here a risk-off type of tone, risk-off signals going on, and this was kind of fuel on that in my view. >> i think until we get back to the markets and it's more focused on mr. trump and what's going on in terms of the oval office and some of the decisions and the tariffs of last week that we're going back and forth between the united states and china and all of that, when we get to the facts, when we start getting to the earnings again, then i think we'll start to see some of that vix come off. but i was sort of a little bit surprised, but at the same time, we were up 440 points today. that's a pretty magnificent run to the upside. when you look at the kind of move we're talking about there, it actually makes sense that volatility would maybe stay in the market as opposed to everybody else in the world, i understand the vix i think as well as anybody and i can tell you this. when you get moves that are one and

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could you just look at some of the factors you are looking at. what might we think might not hold as we go forward, but also what's one of the scenarios you see in the states of change report that seems most likely. >> yeah, and it's not just 1925. there's any number of -- if i told you in 1949 that republicans were about to win, you know, seven of ten elections, six of them with landslides, you would have me committed. after having been blown out in five straight elections. if i told you in 2009 that the republicans were going to nominate someone who led his campaign off saying that hispanic immigrants were a bunch of rapists except for the few he assumed were good people and that he would win, i'm an emerging democratic majority skeptic, and i would have said no way, that's not going to happen. these things have a way of not playing out once you get a few cycles down the road. i don't disagree with the way these data have been presented. i think it's important to distinguish between kind of the weak emerging democratic majority thesis and some o

mexico, if you look at the caravan of thousands of people coming across, i told mexico, look, you havenafta. nafta has been great for mexico, has not been good for the united states. a lot of businesses have closed down because of nafta. you look at empty plants all over the place, and this is from years ago. they still haven't recovered. nafta has been a terrible deal for the united states. we're renegotiating the deal right now, but it will still be good for mexico and for canada. and when this caravan came in, and this is a caravan of a lot of people coming in, in this case, from honduras. if it reaches our border, our laws are so weak and so pathetic -- you would not understand this because i know how strong your laws are at the border. it's like we have no border. we had obama make changes. president obama made changes that basically created no border. catch and release. you catch them, you register them, they go into our country. we can't throw them out. in many cases they shouldn't be here. many, many cases they shouldn't be here. then after they get whatever happens over the ne

again, when you look at what the impact of tax reform is, very, very strong in terms of the earnings anies have the ability to pay those interest charges the second thing to look at is when the big maturity wall is for high yield bonds you are out into the 2020s for that there's no imminent refinancing risks. there's no reason a lot of these companies should default >> one thing you guys do is pro recess risk is zero, and only 5% crisis how does that stack up to previous years hard to go lower than zero >> recent years there's always been an economic bloc or economic in trouble. a few years ago it was europe. before that, china name any country in the world, any economic bloc at the moment and they're growing, not just growing but growing above trend rates of growth. that's testimony to that global growth outlook outside the united states you still have a super accommodative european central bank, and bank of japan pumping huge amounts of liquidity still into the financial system >> our viewer here's could probably make more money in europe than in u.s. equities going forward, correct

you can look at the june expiration. against 100 shares one of the june 170 calls at $5 and use proceeds to buy for $5. you have profits up to $10 between current price of 160 and up to 170. your stock would get called away at 170. you can always call back. you would have losses down to 150 but you are protected below again think about the news of the stock. think about the potential head winds and technical setup. collars could make since if you are nervous about facebook. >> when you take a look at collars you are talking about the options premium it is often unusual to find situations where you can buy a put that is same distance out on the money in this case ten bucks. you get to play without spending premium. often times you have to sell a lower strike call that is tighter to the money. the math works out really nicely because this is a situation where you would think with all of the news out that those puts would be big. they are but the calls are, too. i think if there is risk here it is of more bad news or follow