you look at certain pockets like mexico, you might actually have an opportunity. hard to assert valuation with a lot of confidence because there are other potential shoes to drop. but we are looking for opportunities. jonathan: diana, how active have you been? >> we have been cautiously engaging in markets. mexico has been quite surprising how underwhelming the reaction has been. but we see a lot of upside on that trade. we are long-term investors. we are dipping back to the stories that we like. some areas in the cif we are looking to add risk there. also we are selectively buying. but not broad-based yet. jonathan: how do you feel about the china proxy right now, especially considering the possibility of more tariffs? that decision has not come just yet, as far as when we recorded this program, but how do you feel about chinese proxies with that in the background? >> i think the chinese proxies will remain under pressure. especially in the context, we are not seeing a de-escalation in the narrative around trade. if anything, with the latest headlines, it does see

u.s.,: you look at the you could argue that we are reaching all-time highs, if you look at asia you lookat happened the second quarter and what happened in the second quarter in hong kong and china. markets were down 20%. i think we see this symmetry's betweenent in the us the u.s. and asia which is indicative of the state of the world. manus: we caught up with your chairman, he used the word caution. what word would do used to describe client activity? sergio: it is clear to me that i have been there two times and i even worse situation than what i saw in 2015. ongoing restructuring and questioning but and a pattern where it is positive for the future. is it will continue to grow but in a less predictable way. -- asia will continue to grow. when youan feel it talk to clients. manus: it is palpable. reflected in market valuation. you look at the chinese market and the hong kong market, they are pricing at attractive levels. what does that mean for you and the investment bank? sergio, for us, for me, of are sorry regret, we to see him leaving. he was crucial in helping us execute our stra

when you look at the broad em marketplace you have a variety of stories.diosyncratic has more in systemic. we are not confident that will remain the state of nature. as china gets worse, i agree. widening in good markets deserves reviewing those opportunities. the spread still has to go wider. >> the upside is the chinese market is stabilized. be some people watching this who say 100 basis points is greedy. be theretunity might right now. what would you say to that? there's probably some opportunity but broadly speaking, i would rather not try to catch the falling knife. and sit back and be greedy. thank you to our guests. i want to get a market check. yields higher through the curve. the 30 year yield up by eight basis points at 3.1%. on this program, the final spread and the week ahead. this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ bloomberg yield -- really yield. coming up over the next week, meetings of the leaders from the u.s., japan, and china. coming out onok wednesday. me is cap he jones. -- cap he jones. i want to get the view from london. what are you looking

you have to look at correlations. the euro-dollar still reacted.t does not mean we have not seen a slight repricing. it is something the ecb will be watching very closely. they have to deal with the italian headache. for them the outlook is actually much more -- by this outcome than if he had the 1.9% budget number we would have. jonathan: the market is drawing a distinction. do you think the risk is there? we can be on the path for exploring redenomination risk in a eurozone country? scott: i don't really think we are at that point yet. colin: i think we need to take it a couple more steps further to be a stress for the market. that type of redenomination risk, i don't think we are there. jonathan: if you look back at the financial crisis, one hangover that is still here is investors are treating peripheral debt as if it is credit and not sovereign debt. how much of a problem is that? colin: he went up having investors chasing the market both ways. if we look at a chart of non-european investors holding bonds, they went way down as the market sold

rishaad: where do we go from here and how do you look at this? t go for the value side of things, looking for the cheap valuations, decent dividends, that sort of thing, traditional investing? init hasn't really worked the region globally for the past five years. growth is a factor from quant perspective has dominated. it in growth is outperforming dividend yield. given the tax cuts in the united states, dividend growth should outperform dividend yield. associated with growth. some of these high dividend yield stocks may be fund proxies. haidi: -- and bond proxies. haidi: some of your favorite sectors when it comes to china in particular, and we talk about pharma, consumer names, playing to the favorable demographic conditions, is that casting a cloud over it given levels of regulatory uncertainty in china this year when it comes to tech and pharma in the the past few years not accounted for? >> downgraded tech february this year. when we look at pharmaceuticals and the consumer side, i look at pharmaceuticals as a broadly defined consumer sector,

if you look at what joe biden said he said they don't do this and he said it very clearly so i think when you really look at it all it's not going to change any of the democrats' minds they're obstructionists they're actually con order speakers they know how quality this man is and they've destroyed a man's reputation and they want to destroy it even more and i think people are going to see that in the mid terms what they've done to this family what they've done to these children these beautiful children of his and what they've done to his wife. and they know it's a big fat con. and they go into a room and i guarantee you they left like hell at what they pulled off on you and on the public they left like hell so it wouldn't matter to the f.b.i. came back with a clean is score and you understand that very well john if they would have come back with the most perfect we found everything and he's perfectly innocent of everything it wouldn't a made a difference you wouldn't of gotten one vote now we will get votes from the democrats if we win you'll have three four or five democrats giving

alix: if you look at the technicals, it looks like a five and it whereas cash a buy the dip whereas -- a buy the dip whereas the longer-term you are more cautious. we have already discounted a global economic slowdown. what if that doesn't happen? it likely won't happen. alix: if you look at the technicals, it looks like a five and it whereas cash a buy the dip whereas -- a buy the dip whereas the longer-term you are more cautious. what is the play for copper? >> i think the trade is short-term look to buy the debt. but longer-term, headwinds from global growth slowdown, trade tensions, more likely to impact in 2019. i think between now and the end of 2018, we have the fourth quarter, seasonal strength, copper oversold. you have positioning on the extreme side of things. metal withdrawals are picking up. i think you have a recipe for a rebound in the short-term. but be careful. i think longer-term, those headwinds will be difficult to challenge. alix: thank you so much. let's get to your takeaways. industrial metal selling looks extreme, copper could bottom and you don't see a global

when you look around here, you will find 10. if you look up to the wall behind us, you will see howard heil. on the very top, under the second division, that is howard, the same soldier we just visited out in the cemetery. a lot of the divisions, you will see similar dates. a lot of the divisions you will see from september 12-september 16. most of the soldiers went missing during that time. that is when they were fighting here. on another date when they were training on the front lines with the french. you will see different soldiers went missing during that time. a lot of them you will see group -- you will see them grouped together on a specific date. they were all lost that one time in one battlefield. kin that comet of and visit the name on the wall. that is all the family has. that is the only thing we have to remember. the piece of artwork pershing was looking at at the time was this. this is what he was inspecting. that is an urn. pegasus is taking the souls to heaven. we are in the middle between the chapel and museum a

if you look at that as a package, it is down 5% over the course of this year. e really brave, you can look at the local emerging markets, as a package, as an index. date.re down 10% year to that reflects a lot of dollar strength. that is about as big as it gets for emerging markets. in key is that you go incremental and baby footsteps. >> world use growth give the kick to the markets that they need or might need? >> very much. growth, itok at u.s. .s just the start we are starting to see the impact of the tax cuts and that very large fiscal stimulus. think of that as a ricochet effect across the world. emerging markets at some point will be a beneficiary of that. to the fact that we look at growth in the eurozone, it has that little wobble earlier in the year. but the evidence suggests, from there, it is rebounding now. julie: we were earlier talking about the tight trading range for the u.s. treasury notes. tightest quarterly trading range in basis points for the u.s. 10-year yield going back to 1960's, is there anything at this point, since we have a trajector

you define it? >> it is a way to look at the world around you. people are motivated by acts of different motivations in their life and idea that as profit and redefine it right away. profit is feeling good, giving back to the community. more time with your family. they are driven by profit. just a general fact we all understand that in the book i take it a step down further and show that managers are driven by profit and that is different than what the company's motivations are and employees under them are driven by profit. i move from there because most of us understand business. i move that into other sectors. i look at government and show a 28-year-old bureaucrat sitting at a desk may not always have the best intentions of the country on his mind when sitting at the desk. sometimes he wants to get off work and go on a date, maybe he wants to move up in the bureaucracy himself, he has motivations and they don't go with the program he is working for and this works in media and applies to family life. it is an interesting theory when you start ex

if you are going onto that board and you are looking at the situation, what kind of person are you lookingn a ceo? is it informed by the possibility of a sale? kay: it might be. let's look at what cbs was looking to do during this fight with national amusements. they wanted to stay independent because did -- they did not think they would get their true value in combining with viacom. here they have a stand-alone business and it is a small business compared to some of the others. it is a $20 billion market cap valuation. it is not as big as these other competitive that competitors -- these other competitors on the tech side. who else might be out there? you have to look at john malone. butounds like old media john has been saying we have to combine content assets. is that something that would be interesting? david: also a dealmaker. john malone has interest in a couple content companies. he's got lions gate, and discovery. do you see something like that perhaps in the wings? kay: i think it might be. i don't see the tech companies coming in and buying a broadcast company. it is a totally di

you look at this, among other things, of course, that allows you to perhaps understand that bit a little bit more. rish. rishaad: all right. i am just going to get to our guest now. head of china economics, commodities and global markets. this is we have industrial production, retail sales. this is we are just coming through here as well. you can see how these industries have gradually declined over the years. this goes back to 2006. of course, this is the hay dayses when we had double digit growth for the chinese economy. that was bound to slow down as it goes to a middle -- rich will be long way off. there we have it. but still what is your take? what's your read on this? >> well, my read is china, although the china economy is gradual deceleration trend, it's still fine -- ok, people say they are already in the recession. typhoon has not come yet. it means that we're not changing the direction. only change the pace of it. rishaad: you have stimulus now. how can you have that paying yuff your debts delivering at the same time have stimulus? larry: stimulus is a vague word. at one level

alix: if you look at the technicals, it looks like a five dip whereas the longer-term you are more cautiouswhat is the play for copper? robin: i think the trade is short-term look to buy the dip. but longer-term, headwinds from global growth slowdown, trade tensions, more likely to impact in 2019. we have the fourth quarter, a period of seasonal stress. i think copper is oversold. you have positioning on the extreme side of things. metal withdrawals from the lme are picking up. i think you have a recipe for a rebound in the short-term. but be careful. i think longer-term, those headwinds will be difficult to challenge. alix: thank you so much. let's get to your takeaways. mike industrial metal selling , looks extreme, copper could bottom and you don't see a global slowdown. check out options to play in nickel-copper trade. and robin, short-term copper can bounce. long-term, those macro headwinds in capital rallies, looking long nickel or aluminum versus copper. thanks so much to both of you. coming up, arctic ice caps are in the midst of one of their largest retreats on record. we will tell

if you look at other people and show that they are acting in their self interest, you can look at what other people want as a benefit. i don't know if the question is how you derive it. i think benefit or profit are intrinsic in our life. i don't think you get to derive benefit, but it's whatever the person defines themselves as good. it's whatever the person or the business or the organization defines as a benefit. there's a lot of companies that i look at what their goal is and i don't agree with that as being a profit. but that's not for me to define what their profit is. they think that's a profit and they're either going to live by that were died by. if i understand they're going after and i can help them get there that will help me in the future youhave 30 million americans driven by their own profit motive, that's millions of businesses doing the same thing . how does that work? >> it's amazing, right? it's the invisible hand. my profit motive personally, i'm driven my family. i have the opportunity that i get towalk with my daughter to school in the morning . i'm driven a littl

financials i know didn't move enough but if you look at elements of the financial world, the insurance, the prungss of the world, lincoln of the world they were up significantly. >> look at the industrials if they were worried about this thing with mcthat chart wouldn't look like it does, would it. >> and i know steel companies are not symbioticive of the market but why are steel companies who have never had higher prices trading as if they are going out of business? that tells you those companies on the front line of what's going on i think are vulnerable and exposed. i don't think the market is paying attention to that. >> the market -- we have the s&p 500, the only major equity index up in the u.s., the up 8.5% every other major index is down. maybe they are telling us maybe lx, u.s. steel is telling us because the higher we ratchet up the trade war, the slower we are getting for the global economic recover recovery that we are supposedly in. to me i think it bosses. forget about the equity markets forgot about the vicks at 12 and 13 or the apnea 500 at 2904. what else is going arou

when you look around here, you will find 10.u look up to the wall behind us, you will see howard heil. that is the same soldier we visited out in the cemetery. a lot of the divisions, you will see dates, september 12-september 16. most of the soldiers went missing during that time. or another date when they were training on the front lines with the french. you will see different soldiers went missing during that time. a want of them you will see group together on a specific lot of them you will see group together on a specific date. this is the only thing we have, often the only thing the families have to remember. >> the piece of artwork pershing was looking at at the time was this. this is what he was inspecting. that is an urn. --asus is taking the seouls souls to heaven. we are in the middle of the chapel. this piece shows all of these souls paid the final price and they can go. us, you canbehind see montsec. during the battle, if you could see it, the germans could see you. futures were put in place to give us that cap city

at this chart and, you know, look at the rest of them. say, if you're showing a bunch of charts, well, geez, maybe it depends on when you estimate the trend. and i'm sure that if you went back and began your estimate of the trend at the civil war and thought, what trend do we get then, well, we would get a different answer from what we see. but another way to sort of test whether the data they just showed you is a fair representation of what a trend looked like when president trump was elected is just to compare it to nonpartisan bodies, we're saying. so if i can have a look at my final chart here. gosh, i heard a sigh of relief when i said "final chart." so if you look at the final chart, you'll see that the black line is in june of 2017, what the cbo, congressional budget office, a nonpartisan agency, that has a job, really, of looking at recent trends and projecting it, what they said would happen to capital spending back in 2017. the blue line is what they said in april 2018, and the red line is what's actually happened. and so, i wou

see is if you normalize your o&m costs per force, but if you look at o and m per person in active duet military, this is adjusted for inflation, you see pretty steady growth growing over time. growing at 2 to 3% above inflation year after year after year. the anomaly here is oko funding drove those costs way up. if you take out oko and look at base budget o and m it pretty much continues along the same trend line we've been on for decades. one thing we did dive into in more detail was looking at different portions of our force, their operating costs of the operating forces and how much of an increase. the blue bars show the total percentage increase in operating forces over the past 20 years, this is a 20-year comparison, the red bars show the increase on a per plane or per soldier or per ship basis. you see per unit of force that we have, we've had tremendous growth and cost, so take the navy, for example, the cost of operating our ships has doubled over the last 20 years. it costs twice as much to operate ships as it used to. for air force air operations, it's e

then if you look at your record on the d.c. circuit where these conservative groups come in, you line right up. 91%, 92%. and i think when you put the whole saga together from the big special interests lurking behind the federalist society to the big special interest funding, the judicial crisis network, to the big special interests behind the pacific law foundation and the washington law foundation and this little array of, i would say, strategic litigators who are funded by corporate interests and right-wing interests, and then amicae, who we don't know who is behind them, and you see this result, that's a tableau that is an alarming one i think for the court. i would urge you to think hard about whether that's the direction you would want to continue to go as an associate justice of that court because at some point those numbers catch up with you. at some point, as i said yesterday, pattern is evidence of bias. >> senator, a couple of thoughts. first on the amicus briefs, in my experience, i pay attention to the quality of th

you look at what they say about issues of human rights in such. we have been talking on both sides, many will admit there are human rights. others will say that, no. there is no god because there is no, nothing transcendent, therefore humans should make up their own rights. makeup their mobile own morality. it includes the rights to life. many of spin out to issues such as abortion, euthanasia, they will argue that some people are not equal to others and so call -- many other. they are only valuable if they are is a certain. >> they aren't all equal? they will admit that human equality goes along with their viewpoints. i show how that secular thought over the past century. >> how you show that? >> looking at their own works and what they said about these issues. many of them admit that it is the implication of their view. i don't claim the all of them was that in fact, what i do try to show is that many of them contradict themselves be heard they do at some level, think that human life has you value. their philosophy claims that it doesn't but the

if you look at any of those you could say, that doesn't look like a continuation of recent trends.ave an next slide? in my first press release we talked about a trillion dollars over the trend. if you look at the line on the left, the first chart is nonresidential fixed investment, and for the middle chart is structures or buildings. and that as you can see from the dotted line is something that's headed straight down. and the final is equipment investment and then went straight down before president trump was elected. if anyone were to assert that the capital spending boom that we are seeing right now is a continuation of the trend of that president trump inherited it, then they wouldn't get a high grade in graduate school for that assertion. next chart, please. durable goods orders, capital goods orders, that's a key part of the economy and one of the factors we look at most closely because it characterizes basically the good paying jobs. the jobs that affect normal americans, blue-collar americans. and the first chart is core capital goods orders, the second chart is core capita

at what point do you look at global indicators and say, you know what? maybe this has changed >> that is to me the biggest two risks that they have for the s&p 500 anyway and is the fed going to make the mistake which is a low probability and is global growth going to slow down. we obviously had a stumble here earlier in the year in terms of global growth, but they're confident that we're going see better news as we move into the end of the year. for me, that is a risk some of the data has looked pretty dicey in here and based on the research that we're doing, i think the market's a little more worried about that than what the actual result's going to be. >> nobody seems to be making a big deal emerging markets are down. david just said he didn't think it was systemic and at what point would you consider about the points on a daily basis. where would it matter? >> i think there's less chance of a contagion this time, and you look at the -- and it cannot get up so i think that there's going to continue to be fears about that. we feel pretty good that we'l

i think if you look at real yield, you get to the point when the currency declines were investors areing rewarded for those. even in those unaffected currencies, we don't think those markets are cheap. francine: let's have a look at my turkey five-year breakeven rates. this is what we saw coming out of cpi. we did hear from the central bank saying that they would use all tools at their disposal. do you believe them? is a time to go back into lira or to you what is the concrete action? rick: i think you would have to be very careful about taking it face value given the lack of independence we have seen in turkey. i think we have to be a little bit cautious. that said, currency is cheap and yields are at very high levels. it doesn't it mean it is a rifle but it ispportunity, certainly interesting to think about when you are going to get rewarded for that risk. francine: again, is it only on or is it a way to enter the market or do shy away from it? rick: at this play, i think it is too early. buttility is not rewarded, eventually spread gets the point where it will counteract that volat

at you know if you look at the countries that actually can blame that debt on you know china is you looking at djibouti and a democratic republic of congo and you're looking at zambia that's you know a considerable chunk of the national debt to china. in nairobi thank you now imagine your alarm clock going off and turning on your lights or opening the curtains and brewing your coffee automation to make your morning less stressful for many of us it might be a vision of the future but the international consumer electronics fair which is currently underway here in berlin the smart home has already arrived. even the plots against cook can chill out and base kitchen camera checks what's in the fridge and projects recipe suggestions on to the countertop like how to make the perfect roast the stove opens automatically taking things from their. table keeps the chocolate brownies warm and gooey till it's time for dessert. it's a kitchen that takes cullen mary worries away and even loads the dishwasher in the future nearly everything will be connected to the internet through voice control the

if you look at the cbo, if you look at the imf, if you look at the fed, if you look at any outside, independent analyst, they will tell you that the long-term structural trends in the economy persist. we have demographic challenges. we have lots of other issues related to productivity growth amongst other things that will persist and that will not go away just because we had trump add a $2 trillion stimulus in the form of a tax cut and a spending increase. one quarter of stronger gdp growth does not make a trend. >> all right. hold on. nig niger, a problem for each of you. i'll pick up on niger's point. here's the problem for you, catherine. one, do you have businesses having an optimistic look that measures higher than what we've seen in recent history. >> that's true. >> unemployment is lower. the stock market is higher. trump is using those along with the growth of the quarter. look, fair point. 2017 i think was 2.3%. it wasn't a blowout year, but he thinks this year is going to be above 4% at the end. forecasters don't agree, but that's the trump hyperbole. the hard part for you is all of t

you don't see any out there now. are there any lookingt the concentrations, are there things that you key on as possible risk or warning factors going forward? >> i tend to look at excess ifr growth or one type of loan then you start hearing stories about how people all want to be in that lending area they take on greater and greater risk in that area say it's a low-risk product we saw that with sort of the expanding on the mortgage business so it's when you're start hearing things and you say growth is good, everyone is making good money. you tend not to question it. >> isn't that when you often don't see the problems until they are starring you right in the face then it's too late. so at least let's look at what we did change. you look at the financial system we made changing regulatory and otherwise. do you think the financial system is safer than we were ten years ago? have we fixed that problem spot? >> i think it's a bit safer. i do think there's not enough within the capital standards there is some penalty but not enough it tends t

that germany and i guess when we look at this now germany perhaps also needs this tournament if you look at the rise of for me just interested what you're looking at pictures coming live from new york and we just heard philip lum he was the football ambassador for germany. let's just have a listen to alex on the chef and as to what he's saying. in two thousand and twenty four. thank you very much mr president if i could ask you all to please stand together next to the story dylan a trophy just in a movie that if the two from the winning bid on one side and then the president on the other for a quick photo opportunity or does it buckle over this. you have it the winning bid coming from germany of i don't believe he is the headers of i'm going to go federation will be available for interview at the auditorium after the ceremony and that concludes this u.a.e. for euro twenty twenty four nice with seventy thank you for following those and goodbye from the house of european football. coverage coming to you from me on the way for headquarters the full moon proceedings out all over and now the

looking at the currencies in asia. youthrough in the south korean won, which many say looks like a safe haven to the japanese yen, which is rising in the cm uncertainty. south korean won is up against all caps asian peers so far, accept the hong kong dollar. we are seeing the thai baht stronger. they say it's starting to look like an alternate safe haven. the rupee are, which we are watching closely, had strength yesterday on speculation the bank of indonesia might try to support the currency and the overall market there. to the downside, a lot of weakness in the peso. we had a strong inflation figure yesterday in the philippines. the malaysian ringgit on track for its 12 weekly drop on the selloff you are seeing. how is that playing into equities? a little positivity in chinese markets today, when you look at the csi 300 up 1%. that's the first gain in three sessions ahead of the potential new tariffs from the u.s., slight gain on the hang seng index, up .1%. still seeing a selloff in japanese stocks. stronger yen not hel

at what's happening in the white house you look at the chaos you look at how many times own people have been quoted calling him an idiot it's a little concerning to hear that and when you see all the turn over all the just the endless disasters every day in the news there's new notifications about the nonsense going on the top administration you look at any subjectively even he would agree with this man ideology ideologically how can you stand by him as a leader how can you stand by him as an executive knowing only selected that just coming out he was alleging that the day he was elected so how do you but how do you stand by that we've i have learned a lot but what i would if you. cannot get away and you've got to hang on you guys on this program when i call balls and strikes when he says something or does something i think is wrong i say it loud and clear without any doubt ok i don't carry water for anyone ok but i'm not going to be default against him ok i'm not default for him all right i listen parses words forces ideas let me go to personal here i mean everyone is administration ca

you look left, we go right. ou're saying all three nations are in cahoots working together against the united states right now? >> absolutely. there is no doubt about it, and you can also throw iran in there because the nuclear and ballistic missile technology that has enabled north korea to get where they are without a doubt has come from iran, and there are plenty of reports to include some going back years where there were nuclear facilities that were very similar to north korea that were found involved by the israelis in syria. this is why it was so important for john bolton to talk about the laydown of the adversaries that we see and the strategic perspective that we see going forward for the united states of america and national security strategy. charles: how do the four players win? what's victory with the access with the new four countries, i won't call them evil but our adversary borrowed, your word. >> you look at the fact they're in east africa, building port facilities in lahore, pakistan, the fact t

if you look at what joe biden said, he said they don't do this, and he said it very clearly. so i think when you really look at it all, it's not going to change any of the democrats' minds. they're obstructionists. they're actually con artists, because they know how quality this man is and they have destroyed a man's reputation and they want to destroy it even more. i think people will see that in the midterms, what they have done to this family, what they have done to these children, his beautiful chipper ldren of his what they have done to his wife. they know it's a big, fat con job. they go into a room and i guarantee you they laugh like hell on what they pulled off on you and on the public. they laugh like hell. so it wouldn't have mattered with the fbi came back with the cleanest score, and you understand that very well, john. if they would have come back with the most perfect we found everything and he's perfectly innocent of everything, it wouldn't have made a difference. you wouldn't have gotten one vote. now, we will get votes from the democrats if we win. you'll have

you look at a lot of the names, some of the higher value names when you look at pe ratios are names being hit. look at the twitter of the world. facebook is not in that category, probably tempered down in terms of how much it dropped in the last couple of days this is front and center because of what we're seeing this week we knew coming in we were going to have some social media in front of us this week. a lot of people use it as an excuse at least now to get positions down from where they were often times you see that kind of selling, i think it creates great opportunities. some names haven't gone down far enough you mention some names, intel is not down as much there are names out there that have gotten swept down along with some big names, facebooks and twitters, that could create some opportunities out there >> micron off 29% from its 52 week high. ditch down 45% losses in some names pretty ugly. >> symantec has been a serial misser keep announcing lower earnings near guidance. they don't get it. that company should not be public should be acquired. >> you're doing selling in bigger

if you look at george h.w. bush, that's one reason why a lot of conservative activists were so furious about the george h.w. bush presidency. they felt as though the party wasn't sufficiently unified around conservative principles. now, when you looked at george w. bush, by that time, the republican party had really changed -- certainly at its elite level -- and there was a very strong consensus around free trade, around low taxes, around this vision of a smaller government, and the tricky thing is that that didn't always actually line up with the voting base of the republican party. if you think about 2004, george w. bush won that election -- you know, he won it narrowly, but he won a majority, and he won it because of working-class moms in ohio, you know, in communities that felt left behind. >> donald trump was able to solidify the exact voters that you identified a decade earlier. >> yes, that's right. so, here's the challenge. so, if you're looking at trump's victory, it was not an overwhelming victory. >>

jonathan: at the moment, if you look back at the financial crisis, one hangover that is still here -- investors are treating peripheral debt as if it is credit and not sovereign debt. how much of a problem is that? colin: you end up having investors chasing the market both ways. if we look at a chart of non-european investors holding bonds, they went way down as the market sold off, suggesting people were stopping themselves out of positions in august so in the market starts rallying, no external investors can chase it down. that is very much a credit. if you think about the way people trade credit or emerging markets, they get stuck in that pattern. investors think about it. it's wider than south africa. just to keep it in perspective. it is definitely treated as a credit. the volatility is a function of the liquidity which is terrible in the futures. i mean terrible. you have his credit-like environment, for sure. jonathan: do you see this credit like environment changing anytime soon? the ecb has pretty much done all it can to stop the redenomination risk. there is still the periph

to make sure you are looking at the proper planning plan, you look at the top corner and you will seeershing's signature. if pershing's signature is there, that is the goal of the rule. we do not violate that plan. that is what we look for. all the plans especially with world war i -- it didn't work and world war ii -- that is the rule. his print is something you go by. every day there is a discussion about something with the cemetery. if a tree dies, we go to the planting plan. if a wall comes apart, we prefer -- referred to the pershing plan and look for his name, and that is the one we look for his name. the cemetery and what we understand was actually purchased by the u.s. government for were the cemetery would be. -- where the cemetery would be today. the u.s. government purchased this from the homeowners. they turned around and sold it back to the french government for one french franc. the ground is actually french owned territory. that is one of the misnomers is lores, thel abmc ground is owned by the french. everything on the ground, the soldiers in the ground, is owned by th

if you look at venezuela when chavez came in, we were out. rly stated we will take over companies >> there are countries you would consider not investing in because of leadership? >> exactly it's an unusual case where you have that situation where you don't want to be in the country at all usually it's more nuanced. the government may be a little unfriendly but then the companies can survive in thatuse prices are very, very low. >> will you not invest in turkey now? >> we will invest in turkey. we can find bargains in turkey but it has to be in a company that will survive the current situation. what we found is often these companies that are in an environment that are in trouble can often have outside returns and boost the returns of the total portfolio. >> all right we'll continue this conversation shortly. that's mark mobius from mobius capital portfolios. >>> metro says it has been contacted by those interested in its real hypermarket business. the ceo said they hoped to sell the entire unit. the group also confirmed guidance for the year.

if you want to know who was number one, you might look at my tie color. that might give you some indication but i'll save that for now. so again welcome and thank you for coming to hear about our study of freedom in the 50 states. this is the fifth edition of this book. we've been doing this now for over think it think it and we d because although it back to 2000 so we are to nice look at a variety of different policies overtime. freedom and 50 states that the most comprehensive study and ranking of freedom across the 50 states. it doesn't just examine economic freedoms, fiscal and regulatory. it also looks at personal freedoms and that was one of the big innovations of the study right from the beginning it was the first study had ever looked at personal freedoms either at the national or international level that we know of. our study looks at three dig big categories. fiscal policy, regulatory policy and policies that relate to government paternalism will be called personal freedom. as i said this is the fifth edition. it's updated fully and it is expande

names, but if you look at cisco and oracle and microsoft, every one of them at new highs or at least pushing on new highs, right >> on that point, you have 36 of the 103 stocks in the nasdaq 100 with less than 5% from their two-week highs microsoft, check, cisco check. >> when you look across, so there is strength there and there's been this rotation outside of tech and every once in a while tech goes down and the whole world goes up for grabs and everybody debates, is this it for tech the fundamentals are there the one thing i push back on amazon is where does their profit come from not ecommerce, they make almost nothing there. it's aws and the advertising, isn't aws under a little bit of pressure they've got the microsofts of the world. so there is competition there and at some point if that starts to slow, they have nothing to fall back on i mean they've got the ads, yes, but what are they going to do with the biggest portion of their business which is e-chers and now they're going into bricks and mortar? it's interesting to see how these guys move into bricks and mortar when ever

you look at the market, equal weight is outperforming. you see technology come back >> tech is on pace the question is do you exhaust the move that we've seen without tech coming back it's happened before >> you might have bar it had from september i don't think that changes the trend for technology itself. talk to go a lot of hedge fund managers this weekend they're going to lose google they're going to lose trip adviser. baba will go into the consumer discretionary. >> how much further can the market go without tech joining >> we've proved it's not necessary. health care is up almost 12% we made new record highs on the dow last week, a new record high on several occasions you proved it already that you can have the best leading sector on a three-year basis, take a pause, and the market itself is stable, can take the lead and can push the index to new highs. listen, retailers at multiyear highs, some of them all time highs, who would have thought that was possible? yeah, it would be great if amazon wasn't 9% off its high n and facebook wa

on aide is looking sustainable path. what youave with turkey is that fiscal policy and lots of inflow of capital. the economy is not on a sustainable financing path.i think markets should look for countries with good fiscal harbors as the ones that will do well when they become more risk on. manus: the question is what happens with the dollar and that will drive maybe when we go to risk on. what i have for you is emerging markets. we are below 20 year average according to the em. the rsi, the relative strength index, which is down. it's got more miles to go, according to the technicals. if that is the perspective, is it the dollar that has to ultimately faded's movement before you step into em? kallum: i think the dollar has the trackback a little bit, weaken, which would be the expression of markets worrying less about trade wars, among other things before emc relief. but look at the fundamentals. four emerging markets that mainly export oriented. em's should be having a pretty good time of it. the u.s. is doing well, europe is

you can take the dots and look at the median dot to tell the story, but when you put the dots up on screennd see the spread between them all, they are all over the place. can you read anything into 2019 and 2020? diana: no, i think that is right. the fed has been hiking rates since 2015. this economic expansion is quite long in the tooth. on top of that, we have the fiscal stimulus which might potentially be rolling over next year. there is a lot of uncertainty in what the growth outlook beyond the next 12 months is like. and that will introduce uncertainty in the dots. jonathan: the federal reserve is not in the business of forecasting recessions or economic downturns. if they were, it would mean their policy is in the wrong place. for the federal reserve right now, do you see them needing to respond to a downturn in economic growth anytime soon? do you see that situation materializing? scott: no, i don't think so. i mean, i think they are in a pretty happy place. "pragmatic" is the way i would describe their overall position and chairman powell's presentation. i think as the longer-term