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a yougov study quoted by the times says prime minister theresa may could lose her parliamentary majority sending sterling into the red. >>> ireland launches europe's biggest bank listing since the financial crisis, as it looks to return allied irish bank to private ownership with a 25% share sale. >>> an activist investor creates a connection for ericsson. shares in the swedish telecom equipment maker rally as cevian capital buys a stake of just over 5% citing the company's potential. >>> good morning. glad you're with us once again. let's look at the stoxx 600. fairly subdued picture. we are off by less than one point. hardly any action on the stoxx 600 this morning. let's show you what's happening on a market by market basis. the ftse 100 at 7,545. the latest polls show theresa may may lose hir er majority ine house of commons. one sector under pressure is basic resources off by 1.5%, despite fairly upbeat chinese economic data in the form of manufacturing pmis. autos also under pressure. food and beverages, households good, technology also on the upside. the f.a.n.g. stocks have outpe

joe twyman, head of social and political research at yougov who can explain which of labour's plans areopular or otherwise. joe, the most popular labour promises and the least popular? well, in the stuff that we've tested we've found things like controlling rent so that the rises can only be in line with inflation. the majority of people support that. in fact nearly two—thirds of people support it of the less popular, you have

and yougov themselves have indicated that their projection is subject to quite a lot of uncertainty.l editor nick robinson summed things up when he tweeted earlier: "that's clear then. pollsters say that the tories are on course to either lose 20 seats — @yougov — or gain majority of over 100 — @comres" let's go to clive myrie who's been at the debate in cambridge. how did it go? hello. as you heard from nick robinson, it is difficult to predict these things and no one really knows what is going to happen, the only poll that is important is the one next thursday on the 8th ofjune. how did it go tonight? very raucous at times, talking over each other and you had a sense of the back and forth of the debate with those clips, and i'm in the spin room at cambridge university where the journalists are writing their copy and interpretation of the debate, how it went for them, and we have had several politicians here trying to give their interpretation of the reports that you are going to see on the front pages. to my right is david davis, he will be spinning his particular line. everyone is

yougov is not calling this a pot but a projection.hey are staking a lot on the data, saying this is a possibility but we're still a week out. that's why we have seen the reaction in the pound. that said, if you look at the ft poll of polls, the conservatives have a 9-point lead. you yougov is saying this is a new way of polling. if you look across all the polls -- >> what would it mean if she loses her majority in parliament? why is that spooky for markets? >> we would not have a clear government at all. at the moment she has an outright majority of 20 seats. if she got the most seats but not above the halfway point, governing at all is difficult. >> a total miscalculation on her part. so we have to pay attention to this election. we weren't paying attention. >> i was always paying overattention. yes, indeed. the pound is off a half percent. european equities, in terms of the best performers for the month, the ftse 100 up over 4% because of the pound slide in the second half of the month. it's up again this morning in light of that so

considerfive weeks ago seats will change —— yougov.t they would get a landslide. for her to cement her position and to lose in the house of commons would be one of the most astonishing reversals in modern electoral history. even if she only gets a few more seats than before, people would say, what is that all about? people's expectations are so high, if she ends up with 40, a majority of 40 seats, it would be regarded as a massive... why did we go through this hell? and the tories, if they are struggling, we do not know whether to believe in a poll like that, or any poll, whether to believe in a poll like that, orany poll, but whether to believe in a poll like that, or any poll, but if they are struggling, why? this general election is unique in some ways. it is completely different from something that we have seen in recent history. when you put yourself to the country, you get scrutinised, as we have seen in interviews. people look at them like theresa may, we haven't seen much in the years since she became prime minister. 0ne the ye

the paper had a yougov poll which cut the advanatge to just 9 percent. the lead for the mail on sunday and it had a separate poll, by survation, which suggested the tories‘ lead had slipped by 5 points. but it's notjust the polls and the front pages. there had been reports that mrs may's social care policy had been getting a lukewarm reception on the doorstep over the weekend, something the pm found out for herself yesterday: i haven't looked into it in detail but i was thinking about what your ma nifesto but i was thinking about what your manifesto has to say about the old people's savings. is this the kind of problem that a leader in counters because they are so far ahead in the polls? a bit of that, she felt co mforta ble polls? a bit of that, she felt comfortable enough to be able to go and do this because you would have been as vague as you possibly could and assuming you win power, you would do it, partly the idea that she is invincible but it has turned out she has not been invincible, it has gone down to single figures, a huge drop from where she

with me is the pollster joe twyman of yougov. it's good to have you with us.i think it is there to say. why did you tell us your mainfindings? to say. why did you tell us your main findings? our main findings are if there was an election today we predict there is a good chance that we will see a hung parliament. with a range of seats. the conservatives could win 275—345, but certainly possibly below the 326 that they need for a majority. it is worth remembering that is a snapshot of public opinion at the moment, not a prediction of where we think things will be on the 8th ofjune. looking at underlying data, the conservatives are doing very well on the question of who makes the best prime minister but he is best to deal with the economy and brexit. underlying data favours them but the data on our testament at the moment is not good news for the conservatives going into the debate tonight. how do you square the two things? if people think you have named three important issues, they would assume they are big drive as a potential support, then you talk about a dif

the times refers to a yougov poll suggesting the conservatives could be in line to lose 20 seats andop story is the american pop star ariana grande returning to the uk on sunday, for a benefit concert for the victims of the manchester arena attack — the line up includesjustin bieber, coldplay and take that. and one of the stories on the financial times is a plan by london mayor sadiq khan and transport for london for people to be able to use their phones on the tube. not sure if we welcome that, we‘ll discuss that a bit later on. first of all, i‘m sorry i haven‘t a clue is the metro‘s headline over the interview with jeremy corbyn. stumbling a little in his woman‘s hour interview. there have been so many car conditions of use during the general election and i‘m thinking of going into the motor repair business. we had diane abbott with two pranks, she‘s probably right about this stage and jeremy corbyn has this absolute pilot today we re corbyn has this absolute pilot today were he was being interviewed on woman‘s hour on bbc radio whereby emma barnett he asks him the price, the cost

yougov had them are nine points last sunday. good morning britain had them at nine points.ive points. 25 points. it is now five points. 25 points when the election was called. there's a feeling jeremy corbyn is offering hope and some of ideas, real, investment. energy. he is offering ideas and thoughts and tuition fees. what is theresa may's big offer? where is the vision? she appears to warning people about what might happen ifjeremy corbyn gets in. there was a lot of policy in her ma nifesto. in. there was a lot of policy in her manifesto. it was policy that you would describe as grave confronting the voters with uncomfortable truths than things they do not want to hear like social care. i want to not to the guardian because we are back to extremism but talking about a different element to it. what theresa may is going to say to the g7 tomorrow about technology. facebook and social media dealing with online extremism. some of this has been known about before. the tories will be pleased that is a splash. time has beaten us. that's it for the papers tonight. don't forget yo

the constituency—by—constituency estimate for the times by yougov indicates the conservative party couldty would win an overall majority. city am looks at the war of words between us president donald trump and german chancellor angela merkel. mr trump slammed germany saying the country's economic relationship was bad for the us while, mrs merkel hit back, restating her view that europe must look out for itself and can no longer rely on america. the gulf news says global stocks are feeling the pressure as antagonism grows between the us and the european union. markets have been driven lower over concerns over politics on both sides of the atlantic. the ft reports that internet giant amazon has joined an elite group of us companies with shares worth more than $1000 dollars. back in 1997 when the company first listed itself, one share was worth just $1.50. 0n the front of the telegraph, there's a picture of ariana grande. the us singer announced she'll return to manchester to hold a benefit concert for the victims of last week's bombing. she'll be joined by other pop acts such as coldplay,

the one thing labour is doing wrong, yougov showed all party voters the number one issue for them ist. for most of them the number two issues is immigration. you are saying corbyn and mcdonnell should stop talk of nhs — they should reframe it what britain you want after brexit. when theresa may maded that speech the instinct of the labour machine was, don't talk about it, don't respond. it's about something we haven't really — an issue we don't own. they needed to own that issue. labour are deeply split on whether we should be leaving at all and exactly what kind of approach you should have. whether it's a free market or socialist approach? let me answer. today proves that any attempt to win back that part of the electorate that is pro—brexit is a fool's errand for labour. manchester, andy burnham won in almost every ward. manchester is full of tories. plenty of tories, skilled workers and middle—class people. appealing to the inner soul of progress i politics appealing to the inner soul of progressive politics burnham did well. he walked away from jeremy corbyn tonight. they want a

her manifesto backfired and that lead has narrowed — according to the poll in this week's times by yougov being fuelled by a lot of young voters, and this is what the conservatives are relying on. young voters are flocking to corbyn, on the basis he wants to make university education free and renationalise the railways and produce a magic money tree and give money away. and domestic pointers that people have welcomed. that it does resonate with. what we know from elections is that young voters very often get very excited and don't turn out in the same way. maybe not even registered. so the tory lead among older voters, where turnout is much higher, remains strong. but not as strong as it was, because theresa may chose this audacious strategy of declaring war on her own voters — pushing into labour territory, showing they could punish wealthier voters, taking on their own base in an attempt to get that majority. thinking the majority is going to be fantastic. we will find out in two weeks' time. you get the sense that almost anybody but jeremy corbyn could win this election for the labour

one of them in the sunday times, a yougov poll, shows that the conservatives are nine points ahead of have such a big lead, they are around 4a—46%. labour are a big lead, they are around 4a—46%. labourare on a big lead, they are around 4a—46%. labour are on 33—35%. so it doesn‘t look as though this has been a game changer, but certainly the issue of social care is one that has changed the direction of the narrative. we aren‘t talking so much about brexit but social care. you get the sense that the direction of conversation is moving elsewhere. later on on the bbc news channel we will bring you the scottish leaders debate. our scotland editor sarah smith will chair that debate in front of an audience with a panel of six scottish party leaders at 7:30pm. the headlines on bbc news. president trump continues his visit to saudi arabia, where he‘s preparing to address gulf leaders on the need to confront extremism. labour go on the offensive to attract older voters, as the conservatives defend controversial plans to overhaul social care funding. party leaders will stop campaigning for an ho

and to show you how big this shift is, this is the latest from yougov.ught this was meant to be queried for theresa may? —— a clearlead. meant to be queried for theresa may? —— a clear lead. this election is proving more volatile than many thought it would be there for weeks ago and at that point, theresa may had a 20 plus point lead in the opinion polls but they have tightened, no question about it, don't perhaps seven or eight points in recent polls. that would still suggest a conservative win but not as emphatic as those earlier polls suggested so perhaps the british electorate is looking again at both theresa may and jeremy corbyn, the labour leader, and having a think. it's a strange atmosphere here because this campaign was in full swing up until that dreadful terror attack in manchester last monday. after that there was a pause for almost a week and i think there is a big tv debate which i'm covering tonight here, hosted by sky tv, which will be the first big television debate of this campaign and potentially could be a bit of a game changer. it's

all 32 of its major peers today after that you got poll -- yougov poll.wo weeks into the volatility expectations that swing in, sterling dollar over the next couple of weeks. this is brexit. that was a record high for implied volatility. we are behind from february. in 2015.the election that was the scottish referendum in 2014. to put it in context, volatility highs in february. those three events, activist investment funds, buying a 28.6% stake. now we get the latest snapshot of euro area inflation and around 20 minutes from now, dpi is expected to have slowed. a new intelligence report suggests price increases will remain weak and prevent the european central bank from withdrawing monetary stimulus. we join now david powell, chief economist for the area at bloomberg intelligence. and still with us, james bevan and peter dixon. first of all, there is a huge report that everyone can download if they are a bloomberg user called "waiting for inflation." it is 32 pages long, just focused on inflation. >> essentially, we have the short-term movements in the m

joe twyman, head of social and political research at yougov who can explain which of labour's plans aree rises can only be in line with inflation. the majority of people support that. in fact nearly two—thirds of people support it of the less popular, you have britain only leaving the eu if a new trade deal is struck. it is a range of things, but it is worth pointing out that people don't actually vote on manifestos generally speaking. think of it like a restaurant. a ma nifesto think of it like a restaurant. a manifesto is a menu and you might like some bits on the machine u, you might like other bits, but ultimately if the restaurant doesn't look that good, you probably won't eat there. is the restaurant jeremy corbyn, is that what you're saying? it's the labour party and jeremy corbyn is perhaps the guy at the front. ok. answer that point neil coyle or respond to that point that actually, you know, it might be the messenger, some of the promises are really popular, but the idea of jeremy corbyn as prime minister running the labour party from ten downing street not? well, in bermondse

yougov says 45% want brexit at any price. walk away tomorrow, two fingers up, go.n but with a good deal. the hard—core remainers are now 22%. you are shrinking. i know we are. i accept that. what i don't understand is what is so good about the european project. what is it you are in love with? why do you feel so strongly about it? leaving aside what is good about it, the fact we have had peace and security and prosperity... but that there are lots of reasons for that. one of them is we are part of the eu, it has kept peace in europe. are you saying the germans would have invaded again? not at all. because of the eu, the germans have been a real force for stability in europe and an engine of growth. can we talk about something else now? could you go to bed with a remainer? i am not going to answer that! are you only attracted to brexiters? no! that is a good question! he has no words! i must ask if the story about you snogging someone on a plane is true. it is a ridiculous setup. just ludicrous, the whole thing. a page—three model would have been 0k! it was more ser

let's talk now to joe twyman from yougov.oper is political correspondent for politico magazine. and polly mackenzie was a special advisor to former deputy prime minister nick clegg. thank you all for coming in to speak to us. charlie, i want to ask first of all, how much do you think the tone of this campaign is going to change in light of the awful events in manchester? i think when we look back at this election, we will see that the terrible events in manchester on monday will completely overs ha d ow manchester on monday will completely overshadow it. we spoke to a labour mp in manchester visit, you want to be upbeat on the doorstep and present a positive vision. he said it is impossible to bring that to the campaign in the shadow of this event so it will completely change the mood, i am sure. polly, you were a special adviser to nick clegg. how do politicians play this? as charlie said, you don't want to be too upbeat, you don't want to go for the jugular as you might have done against political opponents, is this about h

giving us their insight arejoe twyman from the pollsters yougov, and jane green, professor of politicalut a quarter are in so far, so give us your analysis of any themes emerging? this is seen in the context of the opinion polls and what we think looking ahead to five weeks' time. chris was talking about being cautious of that. we have seen over time ukip support has been dropping. a lot of that support has moved to the conservatives. we have been watching the lib dems, will they do better in the general election, even better in the locals? that was the expectation. it doesn't necessarily look like it will be the case. they are doing better, although not as well as expected. that is consistent with the trend. and labour losing ground to the tories, in line with our predictions. what is interesting is how big the swing will be and if it is to be replicated in five weeks' time. the polls have had a bad rap for some time. how do they match up with what you think develop so far? many of the things mentioned seem to be coming through in the results. especially in wales, where we have a poll

pound falling today hitting a six-week low against the dollar after a projection by polling company yougov showing theresa may's majority falling short ahead of the election. conservatives could lose as many as 20 seats. they currently hold a 17 seat majority. >>> breaking overnight, a suicide car bomb in afghanistan's capital has killed at least 80 people and injured more than 300. the explosion rocked a highly secure area in kabul where many foreign embassies and government offices are located. happened at the peak of morning rush hour traffic. windows were shatderred in restaurants and buildings. no group has claimed responsibility. both the taliban and isis staged large-scale attacks in kabul in the past. >>> the u.s. military conducted a successful u.s. military test yesterday launching a ground base rocket from a california air bass. the test which cost 2$244 millin involved a simulated attack by an international ballistic missile. the exercise is in response to the haven't launrecent launches north korea. only 4 out of 9 such tests have been successful. >> what would happen if it mi

in a yougov poll in the times tomorrow, the lead of the conservatives is just five points.u look with is a pattern in the polls and recently they have tightened, but not as dramatically as this, so what you'll be looking for, is there a pattern in other polls? why is this happening? it seems that the conservative manifesto launch didn't go off well, they did a u—turn on a big pledge on social care. yougov had some polling that showed that when you asked people what they thought of the main policies of the parties, the main one is identified on the labour party were positive, scrapping university tuition fees and more money for the nhs. the conservative main policies identified were negative and controversial ones, social care and scrapping free school meals. thanks. campaigning for the general election was put on pause this week. today, ukip launched their manifesto saying it was time for daily life to resume or it would spell victory for the terrorists. but how does manchester get back to normal — and what effect will its tragedy have on people's priorities, and the way th

a yougov poll immediately after theresa may called the election in april had the tories sitting on ast poll, conducted after the manchester attack, has the lead shrunk to just five points. so far, based on the evidence we've seen, it doesn't seem as though it has yet had a big impact. certainly anything that moves the conversation in the direction of terrorism, national security, perhaps defence, will benefit conservatives because from polling before manchester it was clear they had quite a big lead in that area. there doesn't seem to be an impact from that yet. the big impact seems to be more from the social care, the impact it's had an conservatives. there's no guarantee something like this, a big national security emergency, helps the incoming government. in spain it had the opposite effect, though there were specific issues around how the government had handled it. it cuts both ways. the opposition as well, if labour is seen too quickly to be trying to pile in and attack the government, that could rebound on to labour. there is now another interruption in the campaign for the ban