i am yousef gamal el-din. haidi: i am haidi lun.th senior managing director for the national bank of abu dhabi securities. let's broaden the conversation a little bit in terms of the comments we have been getting from william dudley and federal reserve hiked expectations. where thelled up expectations are. over half expect a rate hike before the end of the year. 22% by late september. where do you fall on the spectrum? what impact does this have on your investment strategy? >> honestly, i think the statements the last couple of what federal reserve members usually do. they like to warn markets when they feel they are not taking enough caution. i think they are putting that back on the table. i am much were september will be a place where that will happen. is still for an increase in 2016. believe that has real effect in terms of changing the investment strategy now. what worries me here is the fact that other central banks in the doingare actually quantitive easing even lower. there are expected to be drops in the uk. some of the st

yousef gamal el-din joins us now with a chart of the hour.e been very interested in some of the movements. what have you got for us? >> last week, there was so much talk among oil analysts that the bear market didn't have any legs. it did make a bit of a recovery. the latest sets of data clouds that outlook. we've put this chart together that shows what happens with the baker hughes index. u.s. producers have been adding to their fleet. they've done that for the sixth straight week. it is the longest set of gains since august 28. u.s. producers are comfortable bringing those rigs tackle online in the current price environment. it is a little tricky. it comes just off the back of u.s. oil production decreasing for the first time in four weeks. the other signal apart from this chart that i want to share with you is data from the cftc which shows that hedge funds are going all in in terms of their short positions. we are talking the most since data collection began on that front, going back to 2006. definitely a lot of doubt as to how much of a

yousef gamal el-din joins us with the start of the hour. take us inside. yousef: remarkable how quickly this rapprochement has happened. having a good chat, saying they are going to set up a joint fund.ment they have not given any details about the size or what executive it will invest in, but investors are likely the change in tone when it comes to the political spectrum in turkey. this is a chart that shows exactly how people are feeling. the moving average convergence, one of my favorites, manus, you can see here that a lot of the signalsave those buy flashing. in fact, 42% now have those signals, compare that to two weeks ago, 0% of companies on that exchange had any buying signals whatsoever. at the highest level in several months, as well. the other fascinating part of the story is of the recovery extends to other asset classes. and we are seeing that on the five-year sovereign debt spread, now currently at 248 basis points. from the turkish government as well, those deals are easing. across the board, a recovery. even the turkish airlines optimistic

yousef gamal el-din is here with the chart of the hour. good to see you. l prices down 1.3% this morning. yousef: it ends the longest streak of games in four years. a lot of that has to do with the changing supply picture. we spoke about how opec members are starting to muscle up ahead of the informal talks in algiers. the latest culprit on this chart is iraq. they are increasing their exports by 5%. we are talking in the vicinity of 150,000 barrels per day after they came to an agreement as to how to export oil from three oilfields. these three oilfields, they go through the kurdish controlled area, so the new oil minister was able to get some traction and come to a consensus. what we've drawn up to you is where iraq stands in terms of oil production. 3.46 milliong barrels per day last month. the supplyloud in side of this equation is news out of nigeria that the militants appeared to commit to a cease-fire, or at least committing not to attack in multinational oil company or the facilities of these companies, to try to support talks with the government. b

and for more, middle east anchor yousef gamal el-din game with a chart of the hour. ve a big oil company over in thailand, heating prices going up, and we have a forecast this morning. yousef: absolutely, anna. the latest comments come from simon greenfield, as you said and this is interesting because phibro, is a very long-standing track record, used to be one of the largest standing firms of its kind, used to be one of the largest u.s. refiners a one point. simon bought in a very interesting time, and that is what listen to him when he says things about oil. this shows you that simon, when he steps in to guy cipro, he stepped in white when oil prices were bottoming out. we highlight brent, 30 in january. he buys the firm, and then look at that rally. 50% rally after buying cipro. now keep in mind, his comments include, well, listen. opec production cuts not going to happen, or unlikely to have in your he thinks that the fundamentals remain bearish. overall, he would rather sell and rallies than by on this. and he sees the glut persisting through 2017, but let us see

middle eastrkets's anchor yousef gamal el-din been is in. ef: exactly 24 hours ago, anna, we were talking about what the option market was signaling to us. at least a little bit starting to do that. here is what happened with those numbers we got out of the u.s. we put this on a chart for you. you can put up on the bloomberg. you are looking at the u.s. crude production figures, which have dropped for the first time ending theks, longest stretch of games since january. what we have done is added that line in yellow for you, for context. the line in blue is the nymex price. we circled that last bit, the latest developer from that report. but what is also interesting is the the barrels per day in the weeks of july, but also as a result of that, we are seeing a shift in the u.s. crude imports, which of now topped for the first time since january 2014. high levels as well, as a lot of crude reaches the ports in the u.s. so a fascinating set of data, really putting the crude market on its head, for now. anna: yousef gamal el-din, thank you. r it s

yousef gamal el-din joining us from dubai, the headline to watch.onathan: bonds and focus on one side. gilt yields falling to record lows as sellers go on strike. the bank of england failed to buy enough longer dated gilts to reach its goal. they had this message for the bank of england governor mark carney. >> there are a lot of people bidding us the bonds. mark carney is billing me for bonds and he still cannot have them. jonathan: you're in timmer -- jurrien timmer joins us now. he is not selling. has the bank of england got a big problem? jurrien: i suspect operationally they will work things out. when yields go negative, change the basket of what they can buy so i'm sure they will figure something out but it speaks to an underlying fact, there is an insatiable reach. if you are an institutional investor in the u k and europe and have to match liabilities, why are you going to sell your bonds? even at inflated prices. people that did not sell yesterday made money and the market today. the offers were there, they .ould just suck it all up it is t

i am -- i am yousef gamal el-din .t a week it is looking set to be with the moves we are looking at. the big moves in oil and of course the news on a staff level agreement in egypt. all eyes will be on the egyptian assets across the board. let me show you what has been happening with egyptians docs -- stocks. agreement has been reached, but more important the stock exchange is extending a rally that has been going on for the most part of the month. you can see the line in purple, that is the egyptian stock exchange and you can see toward the right, the rally in the circle highlighted for you. against theed this 200 index, which is a good gauge of how the stocks in the gulf are performing. you can see the stock exchange and how much it has performed. gainse looking at 20% in this year and a good 12% of that course of one month. -- take a look at wall street. the s&p 500 went to lower on at a -- on friday. mean all, the dow finished the week under 40 points. and the nasdaq rose to a new all-time high. in this part of the

when it comes to its crude out of it now we get to our bloomberg middle east markets anchor, yousef gamal el-din. oil is never far from your heart. yousef: it never is, manus. articulate oil in this part of the world. and you know what? the latest numbers would wake anybody up. saudi arabia pumping the highest level since june 2015. let me give you some perspective with this chart, which outlines saudi oil production at 10.6 7 million barrels a day. that is a figure that was yourtly reported to opec, line in red. the bass line graph is the bloomberg estimate of saudi oil production, and i have also put in the line in yellow, your wti price. you see how much pressure has been exerted. just a few quick notes on what came out in this opec report, because overall production, 400 barrels a day in the month of july. but what is key here is that you do see continued pressure on both the demand and supply side of the equation. on the demand side, you're looking at the driving season in the u.s. coming to an end, as we go to the third quarter. and the supply-side of course, what they point out is that th

bloomberg markets middle east anchor, yousef gamal el-din joins us. of what is going on in the oil market. -- yousef, what is going on in the oil market? that having an impact on the oil market, but a lot of talk as well. we are not going to see anything . there is not going to be an agreement. the track record is not there. the reality is there doesn't need to be an agreement for you to be able to control the market or influence the market, because if you take a look at what happened this year. i put this up on a chart where you can easily lit up on your bloomberg i have highlighted for you the first time around we had the talks in doha. that did not bring in an agreement. you can see oil prices, wti rallied from their. you moved to your circle in green. your former opec meeting on june 2. that happened, no formal agreement, nothing tangible to go with. oil prices still held up fairly well. you see the slide 20% down from the july high all the way to that red zone that i have highlighted. that is your bear market. at the moment, what the consensus app

yousef gamal el-din joins us now. you are giving your toe in doha.ingust in away from all of the oil discussions we have in having the last few days. yes, there is a play outside the oil world. ,his involves the exchange the rally has outperformed the msci emerging-market index them of over 5% so far this month. take a look at what is happening on this chart. i have handcrafted this, color-coded very clearly to show the amount of foreign investor interest that has been gaining momentum here. remember, that momentum that is coming is 2016. right? those net inflows into the exchange, that has quadrupled since the beginning of the year. and what investors are doing here, they are betting on the passive inflow as a result of the imminent upgrade by the ftse russell to emerging markets status. of course, the final list of stocks is to be announced later today. and as much as there is a lot of excitement here, anna, i have also highlighted the yellow line here. that is your price to earnings ratio. you can see how that goes up all the way to 13 times now,

yousef gamal el-din. ben, do you get any sense from the oil market? any hints that we will see upward prices? even then, the inflationary impact a few years down the road won't be that great. >> i think that's right. i think the shift won't make much difference to inflation. when you combine that with the shift in cable, then maybe that does start to drive inflation. maybe we throw it into that in the last piece of data. but certainly moving to $60 won't be big. guy: maybe we are getting something. we will talk about that later. that ritchie will stay with us. coming up, we've got to talk about sterling. most forecasters see more room to fall, the one billionaire says the pound's decline has been overdone. then we will be watching admiral's ceo, a fascinating conversation. take a look at where they are anticipating shares to go. the markets got this one wrong. aen merkel hits the road, series of crises on her approval rating as she has the campaign trail. those stories and many more, coming up on "on the move." this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: 44 minutes pas

yousef gamal el-din joining us.t is turning out to be a disguise for some european bond markets that were expected to be a big cap. thee it initially jumped in june 23 oh, it soon reversed with those on spanish bonds falling to records in august. in italy, bonds rallied even as the country faces a banking crisis and a divisive referendum of its own in october. let us bring jane foley back into the conversation. to the extent to which you can lay the blame or attribute the lower yield to brexit of course, maybe a topic of conversation, but broadly speaking investors do not seem to mind the wrist if the ecb is there with a backstop. once again back to central bank. jane: you see more quantitative easing of course in the bank of england, and the speculation and the ecb may up the ante quantitative easing. that is the answer, the pressing matter. we have seen this for quite a long time, and effect we can turn this back if you like to janet yellen, and i would say that the downward pressure on the u.s. yield curve is peo