zandi.h gas prices hurting jobs? the director of motor fuels for the national association of convenience >>> we're just half an hour away from the march employment report. diane swonk, mark zandi and austin mark zandi ready to go. >>> welcome back. our guest host, rebecca is helping us count down to the jobs report. how much time do we have rebecca? >> i stand corrected. >> she's helping us. just keep -- the major markets -- >> wait, don't say this, the major markets are closed. the bond market is open. >> currency. >> currency markets are always open. >> yes. and muhammad is in the after glow of mets win. there's 162 games. he's so excited that they won one, which is nice. it doesn't take much to please him. here's what is open. the dow, s&p and nasdaq futures until 9:15 eastern. would you mind counting us down to that, too? >> sure. >> treasuries until noon eastern, treasury futures until 11:15. regular tradings until currency. energy, metals, u.s. equities and european equities are all cl

we're going to dig into it right now actually with mark zandy. a couple things caught my eye on the -- if failing to meet expectations and the big one retail jobs were a negative. >> right. right. which is not consistent with what we're seeing in retailing. look at retail sales numbers they're solid. vehicle sales have been very strong. i'm suspicious of the number. these numbers don't go in a straight line, they're affected by seasonal patterns and we had warm winter weather so that may be messing with the data. i'm not reading too much into the weakness particularly retail. that isn't consistent with everything else we know. >> when you look at everything else, everything else on the same track, manufacturing up, health care sector up, everything else up, and the other one that caught my eye, the public sector for the first time we didn't see a dip, we didn't see any ads, but we saw a flatline and what does that tell us? >> well,s that a silver lining. obviously a disappointing report. hoping for more. but the silver lining is that the lay-offs

joining me now is mark zandi. it's great to see you. >> good to be with you. >> we're this the thick of earnings season, if you will, and some of the biggest companies are painting a picture that's pretty much okay but investors showed a lot of caution this week. what's your take on the health of the economy now? >> it's okay. i think that is a good word to describe it, not boom times, we're not off and running but growth is about 2.5%. that's pretty consistent with job growth that's 175 to 200,000 per month. pretty good. not great but just okay, i think we're doing okay. >> so we're bumping along the bottom if you will. what about the jobs picture? you predict the unemployment rate will be below 8% by year's end, below 7% by the end of 2013. what makes you optimistic here? >> well, you brought up profits, that's a very good reason to be optimistic about future job growth. businesses are doing very well. their profit margins are as wide as they've ever been in the data i've seen back in world war ii. earnings grow

thank you, mark, pleasure to see you again, mark zandy.w back to maria for the rest of the program. >> thanks so much, sue. >>> up next on the "the wall street journal report," water, water, everywhere. the most abundant resource on the planet. but is it in danger? >>> does the foodie culture overindulge when it comes for expense? the economists with the eats and big business. take a look at the stock market at the end of the week. off vietnam in 1968. mine over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. why let erectile dysfunction get in your way? talk to your doctor about viagra. ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain; it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure.

it's apparent that the market seems to be stabilizing but it's a long, slow turn. >> mark zandy just said in your piece that he is looking for a turn next year. what would that mean to the broader economy and jobs in particular? >> reporter: well, housing has been a headwind. it actually has been a problem for the economy. if it welcomes a tailwind people start to feel a little wealth yier because their house is worth a little more and financial information prove more pocketchange and people start to spend. >> a lot of jobs were lost in construction and if that turned around -- >> he'd come back, too. >> there are some early signs of a housing recovery in los angeles. ben tracy tells us that in one neighborhood bidding wars and house flippers are back for the first time since the bubble burst. >> reporter: so, when did you guys move in? >> we moved in at the end of may. >> reporter: adam bauer bought this house in los angeles ten months ago with his brother, logan. they paid $10,000 more than the asking price. >> i had no concern, like it just really felt good. you can't go down any

i'm mark zandi. >> talk about tomorrow.busy day from health care to banking technology, that earnings parade continues. we'll have full coverage tomorrow night. the results of johnson and johnson, goldman sachs, and intel and ibm also due. and tomorrow, a closer look at the selling we've seen in apple shares over the past week. >> susie: and finally, word that the president's so-called buffet rule has been blocked by senate republicans. pay at least a 30% tax rate. tonight's vote was a procedural one to get the votes to move forward. >> tomorrow, a big day. tax day. federal returns are due back to uncle sam by midnight. >> i hit late last night. >> i was the early bird. >> tom: that's nightly business report for monday issue the 16th of april. good evening and thanks are for joining us. have a great night, susie. >> susie: thanks for watching everyone. tom and i hope to see all of you again tomorrow night. >> announcer: nightly business report is made possible by: investing takes perspective from up and down markets for 60

what does mark zandi say about this recent sort of slump we're in? the current low in economic activity will likely prove temporary and additional monetary stimulus unnecessary. that's why we have 33% of respondents saying they expect qe-3 in the next 12 months. moving on, given the still considerable downside risk is appropriate for the federal reserve to have a bias towards further action. that's mark zandi of moody's analytics. the probability of recession in the next 12 months. that's remained pretty much the same. august, what you see here, this is the distribution in august. i want you to point your attention to these fat tails here. 90%. let's look again at the april numbers. you can see it shifted to the left here with a lower percentage of probability of recession. here are the numbers here. 2 one of the biggest threats to the economy, the euro crisis taking the lead here compared to march. taxes and regulation coming off. gas prices. other was 17%. if you wouldn't mind zooming in. what are people afraid of? one of the things is housing, del

. >> reporter: mark zandi with moodies analytics sees construction picking up significantly by then. >> more importantly, we'll get consistent house price gains by the spring of 2013 selling season. and when that happens, i think housing will become a tailwind for the economy, which obviously would be a huge plus. >> reporter: mortgage rates are still near record lows. of course, it's been difficult to get a loan, but a federal reserve report this week shows real estate lending turning positive for the first time in more than two years. >> pelley: thank you anthony. there are also some early signs of a housing recovery in los angeles. ben tracy tells us that in one neighborhood bidding wars and house flippers are back for the first time since the bubble burst. >> reporter: so, when did you guys move in? >> we moved in at the end of may. >> reporter: adam bauer bought this house in los angeles ten months ago with his brother, logan. they paid $10,000 more than the asking price. >> i had no concern, like it just really felt good. you can't go down any street really without seeing a cha

. >> and now we roll along once again, this should be jerry lee -- no, zandie and the juniors.have so much to remind you about. the monkeys on the bandstand, the beetles today on bandstand and we have two of the top ten stars here tonight. you have heard johnny b. good. no? i gave it away how about the manual dexterity. take a look at a very nice machine provided by the ross electronics company of chicago. you can run it on batteries too, let's take the little top off, i have got this microphone tucked under my arm and i can't do anything. >> some moments of the early days of what we howle would tur into a media empire. >> dick clark was from the very start of "american bandstand" a fresh faced young man who had an eye for business. he wanted to take his local tv aud show to -- clark who played off of his rising fame by hosting dances offcamera to make extra money. mike, can i have the mike back? just for a second? >> making money was always clark's admitted goal. he graduated from syracuse university with a degree in business administration and formed his own company the very

mark zandi, thank you for your time. we have to wait for a lot of this until after the election. >> thanks, john. >> what about the political fallout? will mitt romney and the republicans benefit from the sluggish report today? gloria, let's look at gdp in the first quarter of an election year. we show the numbers. this is why the obama campaign has to worry. president obama 2.2%. president bush in his first quarter it was over 4%. clinton in 1996, 3%. george h.w. bush. he lost. look at that, a number below 3%. reagan had a booming economy by this time in his re-election year. >> that's important the growth rate. if you look back to reagan his unemployment was 7.8%. it got a lot better since he was in office. that growth rate of 8.5% for reagan gave people the sense that the recovery would be robust and sustained. and what people don't have right now with president obama and a 2.2% growth rate which, by the way, is less than people anticipated, they don't have any sense of security that a recovery will be here a year fro

mark zandi is the chief economist over at moody's analytics. always good to see you.orning -- >> it's a little tough to hear you. >> we have these small cap companies going public and yet a lot going on in housing, a lot going on in spain. characterize your level of worry today, if any. >> i'm not worried. i think growth is 2.5%. i think we're going to create a couple of million jobs. we have ebbs and flows in the data, particularly at this time of the year given weather and seasonals. i'm still very confident it's on track. >> second straight disappointment in claims doesn't move you? >> no. we take a four-week moving average for a good reason. you do that, it's 375,000. >> still the highest in three months right now, the four-week moving average. >> it is. but for context, go back to this time last year. it was 425,000. in a really top-notch economy, we'd be at 325,000. we're not too far away. again, it's not going to be straight line for the economy. if you told me growth in the spring is going to be on the soft side, i wouldn't argue with you. but in general, i th