zandi. skpan for the record quickly how the default rate on home ownership is much higher than the multifamily. is it because people have to put more money down on multifamily loans or what? mr. zandi, are you familiar with the question? >> i know -- >> we've had testimony here foreclosure rate on freddie mac and fannie mae on multifamily properties is very low whereas foreclosure rate on single families pretty high. >> in the current environment, that's very true. the multifamily market is being driven by strong absorption demand because of the foreclosure crisis, demographics. in a normalized market on average over time historically single family mortgages have performed better than. >> have any comment? thank you, mr. chairman. >> senator menendez was absent on the floor during other business. because he has a leading role in the menendez bill, i would afford him an extra opportunity to begin an opening statement followed up by questions. >> mr. chairman thank you for your courtesy and th

to the mccain presidential campaign, and a go-to guy for just about everybody on the economy mark zandionomist at moody's analytics, the author of the up coming book "paying the the price: ending the recession and beginning a new american century." it's great to have you join us. >> thank you. >> eliot: last month the unemployment number dropped but we only got 115,000 new jobs net. where do you think things are going, and what should we expect? >> i think the numbers will be okay. i think it's underlying job growth. if you subtracting from the vagaries of the date tax i think the economy is creating 175,000 to 200,000 jobs a month. that's not bad. it's pretty good. it's not going to push the unemployment rate lower but by election day it should be firmly although 8%. >> eliot: you have written in an article a couple of weeks ago saying that you thought the unemployment rate would drop below 8%. explain why? what is empowering the jobs because everyone out there is doom and glam that the dow is jumping europe is in cataclysm where are the jobs being created, and what should we do to cre

zandi? >> we have had testimony that the foreclosure rate with freddie mac and fannie mae on multifamily properties is very low. whereas on the foreclosure rate on single families it's pretty high. >> in the current environment that is very true. the market is being driven by very strong absorption because of the foreclosure price and because of the demographics but in a normalized market on average over time historically single-family mortgages have worked better than multifamily. >> senator menendez was on the floor doing other business and because he has a leading role in the menendez bill, i will afford him an extra opportunity to begin an opening statement followed up by questions. >> mr. chairman thank you for your courtesy and to both of the members as well. i was on the floor for the new jersey reauthorization is where the medicine chest of the world so i appreciate your courtesy and i appreciate you and the ranking member holding this hearing specifically on the menendez-boxer legis

mark zandi is the economist for moody's annal lis tick. what do you make with the fact that 100,000 jobs added doesn't keep up combined with the fact that there are fewer people in the jobs market? >> it is soft, disappointing, not as soft as it looks. this is a result of payback for the warm, winter weather. december, january, february, we got 250,000 jobs per month on afrm average. that's above what the economy is producing. in march, april, and may. the reality is, it is somewhere in between. 175, 200,000 jobs per month. that's what i expect we will see in the summer, fall months. that isn't boom times but enough to get unemployment moving further down. that would be okay. >> let's talk more about the shrinking labor market. last month, you thought one of the bigger factors that hasn't been reported on very well is a lot of retirements. so the baby boom generation is simply moving from being in the labor market to not being in the labor market. that has contributed to the lowering of the amount of people in the workforce. is that the en

mark zandi, chief economist w h with. >> i listened to you a few minutes ago and it's really about jobsto have cash and a lot of it, $25,000 to $50,000 to buy the median home price. credit, which most americans don't have and a job, and job security. if you have all those, you can buy a home. most americans simply don't have that. and i think the statistics, and they were up and down over the last few months, and i think you're being a tad optimistic, frankly. we're still 20% or so down from home prices and have a long way to go. >> mark, let's talk about the house situation. there are 3.6 million loans in foreclosure in the united states. that continues to be a problem. the hidden fact in there, rather than becoming foreclosures, many are becoming short sales. the bank settles with you and calls it quits based on what you can pay them. something the bank should have been doing years ago. it took them too long to figure this out. why would that make a difference? >> i agree this housing market isn't going to take off, but i think it's now pretty clear that the housing crash is done. hom

after the goodyear lawyer had 20 minutes zandi he said there'd be cases coming at of the woodwork and it would be a hardship on the corporation's. then may 2007 the verdict came back five/four justice alito wrote the opinion i should have filed my charge with the first check i got even though i did not know it to approve it by should have filed it then. what this means if you get a new job you have six months to file a job -- file a claim. i don't think people on a new job tried to figure out should 95 laing the charge? in good year i did not even know where all the restrooms were. that is not the way it is supposed to be. justice ginsberg hit the nail on the head and said these people don't understand what it is like in the real world and challenge congress. the ball is in your court. you can correct this injustice. congress heard her loud and clear. that was may 2007. lawyer said you do not have to respond but i had worked the case, we had nothing to be embarrassed about. the arbitration case settlement could year allowed me to come back to-- per week with the old rate of pay. i don

zandi. in your testimony on page 3, you note the harp loans just more than 100,000 are families under water, roughly 8%. so you have this other 92% that benefitted from the harp program that weren't under water. the question keeps coming up, did harp need to exist for those families, and if so, what's the short answer why? >> yeah, because there's other criteria other than ltv determining whether you get a refinancing, right? so it's back-end, meaning what are your other debts, which are your credit score, other factors, and many of those borrowers because they were kind of on the edge in terms of equity were getting dinged and couldn't get refinancing. so i think it did help quite a bit. >> have you had any ability to analyze the statistics in terms of families that could or couldn't get refinancing without harp? let me throw something out here. >> okay. >> when i sought to refinance your house, the mortgage agent sent me a harp refinancing. i called up and said why are you send the harp re

mark zandy.ob losses are the most serious weight on the job market thachlt is mccain's former economist. what do you think about that? >> all due respect to senator mccain, i don't think his economic program won the day in 2008. you can pick a random economist out there and, you know, say anything that you want. alex, i think the great thing about the president coming 20 virginia today to kick off his presidential campaign is the incredible contrast between what's been happening in the country under his policies and what's been happening in virginia under the policies of a conservative economic minded governor, governor bob mcdonald who believes in right to work. president obama said in virginia that virginia shouldn't be a right to work state. someone in bob mcdonald who focused on the economy like a laser beam. it's why he won by 17 points after president obama won by seven. virginia voters are focused on jobs. >> are you going take that message, are you going to richmond virginia today and be

talk to mark zandy he said around 7.90 e on election day. another person thinks it shows weakness in the job market that will persist. >> john, i think you laid it out beautifully. thanks to john harwood in washington, d.c. >>> mitt romney jumped at the chance to say he can do better than the president. take a listen to romney. >> the reason the rate came down because 340,000 people dropped out of the workforce. so many became discouraged they stopped looking for work. this is a time when america wants to have someone that knows what it takes to create jobs and get people working again. i think it helps to have had a job to create a job and i have and i will. >> all right, me? i don't see how obama can get reelected 186 days from now. 2% growth in gdp, 115,000 jobs, a shrinking workforce, six trillion dollars of debt? somebody has to explain to me how exactly he will do this. so, we have democratic pollster and trat at the gist bernard whitman, terry jeffreys and jimmy from the american enterprise institute. lousy job numbers last month, lou

because mark zandi of moody's said without all those taxpayer dollars backing up the bailout, the bankruptcy filing that was pretty much, as you said, the case, would have never been possible. in other words, a bankruptcy filing alone, these guys still would have been in deep doo-doo. do you agree with that? >> well, what i said at the time was, in that op-ed, i said, as they go into bankruptcy, if government support is needed, if the government, for instance, has to provide guarantees, then that's something i would be open to. >> that is just the point. there were no guarantees. there was no liquid money floating around to help millions of americans. mitt romney doesn't know what the heck he's talking about. and you know what, this story isn't going to go away. because there's going to be a lot of cars and trucks sold between now and election day. and the numbers will keep adding up. joining me tonight is eugene robinson, nbc political analyst, and associate editor and pulitzer prize-winning columnist for "the washington post." eugene, why doesn't mitt romney just surrender on this story? i

mark zandi says the crash is over, ready to buy. alan, what is wrong with you, man?ll, i think you point out a lot of statistics. i listened to you a few minutes ago and it's really about jobs. in order to buy a home today, you're right, you've got to have cash and a lot of it, $25,000 to $50,000. credit, which most americans don't have, and you need to have a job and job security. the fact is, if you have all those, you can buy a home. but most americans simply don't have that. and i think the statistics, they were up and down over the last few months. and i think you're being a tad optimistic frankly. we're still 20% or so down from home prices, and we've got a long way to go. >> mark, he's keeping me honest on this. let's just talk about the house situation. 3.6 million loans in or near foreclosure in the united states. but the hidden fact is rather than becoming foreclosures, many are becoming short sales. the bank settles and calls it quits based on what you can pay them. something the banks should have been doing years ago. why would that make a difference? >>

mark zandi, who was mccain's campaign top economic adviser, one of them, called for 600 billion in oneyear, you know? which, you know, and obama was operating on this two-year timetable. so i think there was this, you know, there was this understanding that we were in a unique moment, and people saw it less as an opportunity to sort of, to kind of stake ideological ground and make a play for the seize of government over the long -- the size of government over the long term than just doing what was necessary to plug this enormous hole in the economy. >> yeah. the last speaker mentioned something about centrist policies. i'd like to question that, whether the policies that the current administration actually succeeded in getting through congress, whether they really were sent risk or whether they were to the right of center given the health care plan that came out of the aei, etc., etc. i think that's a kind of revisionist history, actually. >> no, i agree. i think he's arguing that that's what you would expect because that's where the sort of democrats have been despite some of the rhet

zandi and blinder went on to say -- "when all is said and done the financial and fiscal policies wille cost taxpayers a substantial sum but not nearly as much as most had feared and not nearly as much as if policymakers had not acted at all. if the comprehensive policy responses saved the economy from another depression, as we estimate they were well worth their cost." madam president that's exactly right. but what do our colleagues on the other side want to do? they want to take us to extreme austerity. they want to slam on the brakes, even while this economy is in a fragile recovery. madam president we don't have to wonder what would happen if we adopted the policies that they are presenting here on the floor of the senate today. we don't have to imagine. we can just look across to europe because they are pursuing the policies that our colleagues on the other side advocate here today. and what's happening? we have got a -- kind of an experiment going on, because what our republican friends are pushing for is being done in europe, and what are they experiencing? here is a col -- here

zandi and blinder went on to say -- "when all is said and done, the financial and fiscal policies will have cost taxpayers a substantial sum, but not nearly as much as most had feared and not nearly as much as if policymakers had not acted at all. if the comprehensive policy responses saved the economy from another depression, as we estimate, they were well worth their cost." madam president, that's exactly right. but what do our colleagues on the other side want to do? they want to take us to extreme austerity. they want to slam on the brakes, even while this economy is in a fragile recovery. madam president, we don't have to wonder what would happen if we adopted the policies that they are presenting here on the floor of the senate today. we don't have to imagine. we can just look across to europe because they are pursuing the policies that our colleagues on the other side advocate here today. and what's happening? we have got a -- kind of an experiment going on, because what our republican friends are pushing for is being done in europe, and what are they experiencing? here is a col

i was going to ask you to play zandy. mark whaerks your a number? >> what's that, joe?nner. >> derby winner. i'll give you my number. 140 on payroll employment. the risk to the down side but this is all technical and temporary. it's a weather payback, it's seasonal adjustment issues, sim pling problems in the retail sector. there's an incredible last of august i think we'll be back to trend -- >> you know, i'm a little angry at the whole panel here. >> including me? >> i'm angry. >> what did we do? >> you're all bullish going into last month's thing. i number comes in lower and you give up the -- >> wait, wait, wait no, no, no. wait approximately. >> we're -- we're talking about the admiration of the good weather, which skewed things too high. when that went away you call that the -- >> let me do the arithmetic. >> the average monthly game clay was boosted up about -- there's a giveback of 150 k. i thought it was going to be april and may but it started in may. so we'll be weak in the next three monies. but trend growth extracting from the effects of weather and other t

we'll take to austan mark zandi and squawk master stephen roach.t the top of the hour. >> joe has your list of stocks to watch right after the break. >>> look at this stuff. >> let's take a look at stocks to watch. yahoo! ceo scott thompson has resigned. much better looking guy dan loeb has won out. the company installed a better looking man without that fu-man chu thing. >> i think bosstock left in february. >> he said he was going to accept down but testifies technically still on until the summer before it was all over. >> he also brought in two board members who came with him, harry wilson, who is frequent guest host here will be one of those. we should call harry and get him back on. >> and michael wolf, former cfo of via come. he was sitting next to alec baldwin during the twitter incident on the plane. >> he outed him. >> he always gets confused with the "vanity fair" version of michael wolf. >> was he ever a contributor? we've had him on quite a bit. yahoo! did you see the list? it has had quite a rose gallery of ceos that have passed throug

zandi and blinder went on to say -- "when all is said and done, the financial and fiscal policies will have cost taxpayers a substantial sum, but not nearly as much as most had feared and not nearly as much as if policymakers had not acted at all. if the comprehensive policy responses saved the economy from another depression, as we estimate, they were well worth their cost." madam president, that's exactly right. but what do our colleagues on the other side want to do? they want to take us to extreme austerity. they want to slam on the brakes, even while this economy is in a fragile recovery. madam president, we don't have to wonder what would happen if we adopted the policies that they are presenting here on the floor of the senate today. we don't have to imagine. we can just look across to europe because they are pursuing the policies that our colleagues on the other side advocate here today. and what's happening? we have got a -- kind of an experiment going on, because what our republican friends are pushing for is being done in europe, and what are they experiencing? here is a col