zandi, go ahead, please.se >> i appreciate the caller's perspective. one area where i think we could agree on, and sounds like we agree on the debt limit and that's great because that wouldt be really catastrophic for everyone if we reached it. ... we can increase the size of our deficit. we need to bring the dead and because i agree in the long run if we are not more fiscally prudent that will be a problem. i don't think this issue, i mean obviously you provided a lot of support during a pandemic and by the way every country and the planet said roughly the same thing. at the end of the day the government does a backstop when we are crisis in the pandemic was aor crisis. here we are today on the other side of the third our debt loads are high and i think we need to be more fiscally prudent going forward. we have come up with a new package for increased spending or whatever does. we have to come up with ways to pay for that either with cuts in other spending or increases in tax and we will cut taxes for whatever reason and with we have to pay for it and

zandi, go ahead. guest: i appreciate the perspective. one area where i think we can agree on, it sounds like we agree on the debt limit, that is great. that would be catastrophic for everyone. i do think if we implement fiscal policy, that means government spending policy, tax policy, and lawmakers do anything that would increase spending above that already in the budget or cut taxes below anything already in the budget, i think that does need to be paid for. we cannot increase the size of our deficits, we need to bring them in. i agree if we are not more fiscally prudent, that will be a problem. i do not think the issue right now -- we provided a lot of support during the pandemic, that was, in my view, necessary. every country on the planet did roughly the same thing. the government is there for us when we are in crisis, the pandemic was a crisis. here we are today on the other side of this, we did borrow a lot of money. we do need to be fiscally prudent going forward. if we come up with a new package of increased spending for whatever

zandi? are we better off than most of the economies in the world? >> our economy is performing exceptionally well compared to the rest of the world. the strong u.s. dollar against all currency. it's very, very high by historical standards because the economy is performing much, much better than other places in the world. yeah, i think that's very much the case. >> and let me add this as well. there's talk about not having hearings on inflation. well, democrats have acted, we've not just had hearings, we've acted on this inflation and we've reduced the costs of pharmaceuticals for seniors, inflation is all about paying for things that are high priced, we've brought those prices down and reduced the cost of health care for seniors, i happen to care about seniors, and some people think if you only help seniors, you're not helping the economy. seniors are a large part of the economy and we've passed legislating to boost the manufacturing of semiconductors. this is a real problem for us having se

. >> economist mark zandy for his part expects u.s. inflation to ease this year.ecession could still be avoided. >> i don't think it's inevitable. i think the economy has some underlying strenhs. the american consumer is in a pretty good spot. american businesses are doing well. profit margins are near record leve. balance sheets are strong. >> we asked zandi what he thinks of the biggest risks for the world economy in 2023. >> at t top of the list of risks i would put what's going on in russia, the russia/ukraine conflict and what that might mean for oil and other commodity prices. if russia goes down a darker path here and oil prices spike back up again, that would be a real problem. that would aost for sure mean that the gbal economy is going en into a recession in 2023. >> rogers on the other hand, says policy mistakes of central banks are the top risk. >> they have printed too much, and the bank of japan, and the central bank in europe. everybody. but the central banks around the world are the biggest risks because they have made mistakes, they will make more

zandi, go ahead. guest: i appreciate the perspective.ink we can agree on, it sounds like we agree on the debt limit, that is great. that would be catastrophic for everyone. i do think if we implement fiscal policy, that means government spending policy, tax policy, and lawmakers do anything that would increase spending above that already in the budget or cut taxes below anything already in the budget, i think that does need to be paid for. we cannot increase the size of our deficits, we need to bring them in. i agree if we are not more fiscally prudent, that will be a problem. i do not think the issue right now -- we provided a lot of support during the pandemic, that was, in my view, necessary. every country on the planet did roughly the same thing. the government is there for us when we are in crisis, the pandemic was a crisis. here we are today on the other side of this, we did borrow a lot of money. we do need to be fiscally prudent going forward. if we come up with a new package of increased spending for whatever it is, we have to c

. >>> plus, we'll talk to moody's analytics chief economist mark zandi about the job cut news at salesforce and the broader trend of layoffs, where the job market stands let's get to the dashboard with senior markets commentator, mike santoli. what is on your radar? now it's only energy in the red. >> the rally had some of the starts taken out by the fed minutes. the s&p 500 is still caught in that very new year mean reversion type action. the laggards of last year performing well. the leaders of last year coming off the boil a little bit. that has kept us in this zone, just about 3,800 now, the market didn't make my real use of the traditional late december strength except to fail to break down, again, this 3,800-ish level. keeps it out of the october low zone, and takes us all the way back to six or seven months ago. have not climbed above that today. it's the final day for those keeping track of the rally period, seven trading days 3822 is the level they should finish above if it's going to be considered a positive indicator. really it's the absence of a potential negative indicator as l

it was mark zandi of moody's analytics, the chief economist who's on with this yesterday talking about the impact of not raising the debt ceiling. here's a little bit of what he had to say. >> the debt limit obviously is no limit on the amount of treasury debt that can be outstanding, and we are now bumping up against that limit. if we hit the limit and the treasure runs out of all the cash it has in its bank accounts, it can't issue more bonds, or treasury bonds to help finance the government spending and tax policy. someone is not going to get paid. the treasury can't cut a check to somebody. it could be a social security recipient. it could be someone in the military. it could be, could be bondholders, people who own the treasury bonds from you, , you y have in your pension plan to foreign investors, middle eastern investors, japanese or chinese investors. so someone doesn't get paid, then that's going to send a bomb throughout the global financial system. because one of the bedrock principles of a well functioning global finance system isen that the u.s. pays its a debt. it pays it

economy with mark zandi, he is with moody's analytics, he is their chief economist.elcome back to the program. moody's is and your role in it. guest: moody's analytics is part of the moody's corporation which

sandy says the hit to the economy -- zandi says the hit to the economy would be cataclysmic. does create this choppiness particularly in the market. stuart: yes. lauren: so it does have an effect. stuart: yes, it does. 2010-2011, there's a debt crisis. market was trembling. i just don't think we'll ever actually default. not gonna happen. >>> check futures, please, we're down about 150 points for the dow industrials and 78 for the nasdaq. the opening bell is next. ♪ hey now, you're an all-star. ♪ get your game on, go play. ♪ hey now, you're a rock star. ♪ get the show on and get paid. ♪ all that glitters is gold. ♪ only shooting stars break the mold ♪ teeth sensitivity is so common. it immediately feels like somebody's poking directly on the nerve. i recommend sensodyne. sensodyne toothpaste goes inside the tooth and calms the nerve down. and my patents say: “you know doc, it really works." stuart: okay. futures pointing south, down 140 for the dow, 8ing 0 for the nasdaq. brian belski is with me, in new york, no less. in the studio. i want to talk microsoft. is this the most

the economy, rather, entering a slow session here with his forecast, moody's chief economist mark zandihow slow session, aka, soft landing? >> you like that, morgan soft landing doesn't feel right. under any scenario, this year's going to be a struggle for the economy, given the high inflation and rising interest rate so, a soft landing just doesn't feel like a good description i don't expect a recession recession is a broadbased across lots of industry decline in economic activity that's persistent i don't expect that. so, thus, the slow session in fact, i even got a url for it with a definition if people are interested >> okay. so, i guess, tell me a little more about what a slow session could look like, how that could feel, especially as despite a cpi print yesterday that at least on the headline represented a sixth consecutive month of inflation declines or the rate of inflation decelerating the fed has held the course and say they're going to continue hiking and stay there for longer what does a slow session actually feel like in that environment? >> yeah. it means slow or no growt

economy with mark zandi, moody analytics chief economist. thanks you for joining us. remind people what moody's is and your role in it. guest: moody's analytics is part of the moody's corporation which includes the rating agency. moody's analytics does work in providing support for a large number of companies and financial institutions around the world. the economy matters to these institutions. that is where i come in, helping these institutions understand where the economy is headed and the risks they face as part of the economy's performance. host: you put a look into where the economy is going to review developed a new term called slow-cession. can you describe that? guest: in my view, 2023 going into 2024 is going to be tough for the economy. it is not going to be easy. inflation is high. federal reserve is raising interest rates quickly to quell the wage and price pressures. that environment, the economy is going to struggle. i think we have a good chance of getting through the next year or so without a actual recession. a recession is a broad-based across lots

after that, mark zandi goes over the economic outlook for 2023 and concerns about a possible recession. take part in the conversation, call or send us a text message, facebook comment or tweet. washington journal starts now. ♪ host: this is washington journal for january 9, the house meets today to vote on a package that will establish the framework for legislative work in the 118th congress on the hosi

now you can agree or disagree, he's a market kind of cycle guy, not an economist, not a mark zandi, one of the best on the planet i might point out, and mark is in this not necessarily recession camp as much as i think slow session camp, something like that, mark? you definitely see things slowing down but not a collapse; right? >> yeah, that's right, neil. i think the economy at first with the recession and inflation and on high alert. but i think -- coming in relatively quickly and we can make our way through with that [ audio issues ]. recession high without a recession. neil: mark, we're having some problem with your audio and hoping it improves as we continue to speak but if not we'll try to patch it up. i'm interested to know what you make of peter eliadi's thoughts and he's saying with unemployment as low as it is, in the past when it's gotten to that, it's cablooey time for the markets. i'm wondering if it's time for the markets could it be for the economy as well? what do you think? >> well, unemployment is low. but with the fed rate hikes, i expect -- high enough, fast enough

. >> the caveat, though, is zandi expects it to carry over deirdre bosa is with us.ere do you hear these workers are going? >> well, what i'm hearing anecdotally is that the tech workers laid off at meta, amazon, the many, many companies that have announced layoffs in the last few months are finding jobs very, very quickly. yes, it does feel at odds with what you were just talking about with mike santoli, the private labor day ta even though it feels like every day we're getting more news out of silicon valley. the thing is they're finding jobs more quickly because there's still a pretty strong startup ecosystem here yes, for the names we know like instacart, some of the biggest unicorns that have raised a lot of money at higher valuations in recent years, they're the ones looking to layoffs and ways to cut koufts, but we got headlines saying open ai, the parent company is in talks for a tender offer that would value it at a much higher valuation. so there is an opportunity for some start jumps, especially artificial intelligence torsion continue hiring. they have it

i mean, i guess if you're looking at a slow session as mark zandi called it or moody's ka uld it or maybe a recession in 2023 with a job market that is still this strong even though it may be slowing? >> the short answer is, no, you can't have a recession with really positive and strong jobs growth. i don't think that that jobs growth is going to continue for the duration of 2023, and i think the first quarter and the first half of 2023 are going to be particularly challenging. they're going to be absorbed because there are so many job openings. we've seen small businesses decrease in their hiring plans. i think that's been a spread across the broader economy and increasingly will become the case that the layoffs are not going to lead to people being rehired elsewhere but, rather, just going on unemployment benefits and being unemployed. >> solid for now but watch the space as we move into 2023. john leer, morning consult. nice to see you. have a great weekend. >> thank you. same to you. >>> 11 rounds of voting and still no speaker. what this means ahead. >>> bullet holes in new mexico an

mark zandy is the chief economist at moody's, he estimates we lose 6 million jobs and 12 trillion buckssehold wealth if we default on our debt. stephen moore joins me thank goodness. can we be clear, stephen, absolutely clear, there is no way on god's green earth that we , america, will default on our debt. we're not going to do it, are we >> no, stuart, and it's shame on president biden for even making this claim that somehow america will default on its debt it will not happen. it will not happen on god's green earth. you're exactly right, stuart. so no investor, let me state it very plainly. no investor has to worry about these bonds not being repaid. these are as good as gold. no doubt about it. now, we are going to have a fight over the debt ceiling, no question about it, and you can see the numbers on your screen. this is why we have to have a fight. incidentally, stuart, when i first came to washington in 1984 , the debt wasn't 31.5 trillion. it was 1.5 trillion so what i'm saying to you is that we've added $30 trillion to our debt in some 35 years or so. now, here is another poin

economy is in a delicate place for reasons we awk about but as mark zandi told me, the closer we get to not being able to pay our debt, the closer we get to a recession. if the u.s. actually defaulted on its debt which it has never inte intentionally as you pointed out would set off a chain of reactioned. first government contractors, vendors and such not being paid, a whole slew of them not being paid but rates for government get going up. u.s. government debt is considered basically risk-free. a safe haven investment but if suddenly investors start to feel like the u.s. government can't pay its debtors obligation, those rates go up then that has an impact on all sorts of consumer borrowing. think higher mortgage rates, a higher, smaller business loan, higher auto loans, all of those things, it would have an impact to the financial markets as this creates jitterness, one market strategist put it this way, this will end up being the most serious debt crisis in the nation's history. there will be a credible risk of default and it may not be resolved until the very last minute. how ser

mark zandi, moody's analytics, said, financial markets and the economy will crater. larry summers, former treasury secretary, that many of you speak with -- a default would be catastrophic. it would mean higher borrowing cost forever. and lastly, wendy edelberg from brookings -- it's playing a game with the u.s. economy and people's lives that i think is irresponsible. so, yes, there are programs that will definitely be at risk if this is the direction that republicans in the house decide to take. reporter: ok. so, another follow-up to this. are there efforts afoot in this white house, up and down pennsylvania avenue, to safeguard if there is this crisis that continues to loom? for instance, you know, you talked about social security checks. not just social security -- medicaid, medicare, and military checks and other items. are you guys working on any kind of process to be a safety net so that the military can get paid, so that these checks can come out in the midst of this crisis, as you're fighting about raising the debt limit, that is constitutional? ms. jean-pie