yes, i know zelman. and what? what are you, seriously? listen, now this is interesting.et's check it out. in short, art, resentment zelman was at the seryshev exhibition and bought one of his paintings, he liked his paintings so much. why? when you see him, you'll understand. why did you come to the seryshev exhibition yes, and the evening was free so i decided to talk with normal people, and not just with the elite. well, how did we talk a little? tell me if the paintings from seryshev represent at least some artistic value, no, they are not modern, little talented. and in general, it’s not even because they already bought one of them, but for three and a half thousand rubles, the author asked for four. well, i said that it is dear to me. he agreed to bring down the yes of piggy whiskey and where the painting was bought. here, i beg you, a very weak landscape in the morning called birch grove. and if the landscape is rather weak, then why did you buy it, and what if someone succeeds in nude hat now after all, there are so few people who understand this. do you know that

joining us is ivy zelman it's good to have you back on, ivy. know you've been expecting to see a turn for a while now in the housing market what are you seeing? >> well, thank you for having me, sara it's great to be back on our april home building survey really showed an inflection point of demand starting to moderate we've had significant affordability pressures. the monthly payment for a new home is up slightly over 40% and i think the surge in rates is now finally giving people pause. some of it is related to just hesitancy that they don't want to be buying at the top. but i think more than anything, it's about affordability our survey did see a pick up in cancellation rates admittedly we didn't expect much and it's well below normal, but i think there's been so much embedded equity so we didn't expect a lot of cancellations. but it did tick higher we did see a tick up in incentives some of the cancellations, pby the way, we've heard some of the hotter markets were private investors. so i think you're seeing a pause now. admittedly it's mix

artur mustaev zelman, rebels and aslan allah lead, grozny only a few days remain before the calendare abkhazian resorts. it has been hot in recent years preparing for the tourist season. local hotels. changed noticeably there are hotels for every taste and wallet about how you can diversify your vacation by the sea in abkhazia, olga shtopol will tell. fashion for holidays in this resort town, a value that was constant before the revolution, the gaagros presented how the russian nitsa was later presented as a soviet resort now as an alternative to the noisy post-olympic one, sochi the time is counted here, checking with this chronometer the clock was delivered from europe along with the famous creation. now, as a gagrish restaurant, its interior has changed little over the past 100 years. representatives of the imperial family, when nicholas ii came here they wanted to talk, so about something in private with the prince of albur. yes , they walked down the stairs, which means they sat down under one of the trees, and, uh, where i was for 100 years for two people. yes, and i sing the w

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zelman and associates, i want to al ratner and he pointed me toward book value that price to book value models tend to trough at the end of a rate cycle, not near or before then. work the at the very beginning some housing stocks continue to fall even after the tightening cycle was over the average home builder saw their price earnings multiples shrink by 7% to the end. there could be some intermittent rallies during these periods but they all end uply unless the fed stops raising rating mortgage rates are on the ricech and when they announce a rate hike, finally don't trust anything that trades at four to five times earnings. that is called a value trap. all right. so housing stocks. oh, i forgot, that is because i'm friends with the meme people next, how about the financials we made a stab at the banks this year for the charitable trust. these stocks soared in january and the fed thought they could raise rates, that is gone out of the window as we're heading for a hard landing and the bank get stuck with loans and by the way i could continue to think that the consumer is so strong tha

a delay the impact of higher rates on an extremely levered economy, just look at according to ivy zelman and associates, she's awesome, not more than 90% of moertgages are currently below the current mortgage rate. which means if you're going to try to get equity out of your house, you're going to have to pay probably 200 basis pointsar little less or more to do that and you're not going to do that. so if the fed is not printing money and if fiscal is not giving it to you and china is in a rapid slowdown and europe is embarking on a recession because of the war, this is about do you have money availability which we've talked about every time i'm on the show. that is dwindling fast i would argue the neutral rate is below where everybody thinks it is because it is every cycle. that is why we go into a recession. it shuts down before they would realize it. >> are you saying that we are going to go into a recession at some point >> our playbook for this years i'm in guy's field, we're going to get an over side bounce and it is an oversold bounce and what has done the worst could bounce but t