>> WELCOME BACK TO OUR SPECIAL
COVERAGE OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES,
I'M JEELGT JOHN SIEGENTHALER IN NEW
YORK ALONG WITH ALI VELSHI IN
IOWA.
TED CRUZ SEEMS TO BE ON TOP BY A
VERY SLIM MARGIN.
NOW LOOK AT THE DEMOCRATS.
AND HILLARY CLINTON AHEAD 53%
TO 47%, THIS IS WITH 23% OF THE
PRECINCTS REPORTING.
ALI, SO THIS HAS BEEN AT LEAST
FOR THE LAST 20 MINUTES THIS IS
WHAT WE'VE SEEN.
>> THAT'S RIGHT. WHAT YOU HAVEN'T SEEN YET IS
PALL COUNTY, DES MOINES, WHERE
THAT DEMOGRAPHIC WILL CHANGE A
LITTLE BIT PERHAPS TO BERNIE
SANDERS.
WE KNOW IT'S EARLY.
WHAT'S MORE INTERESTING IS LOOK
DOWN THE TICKET ON BOTH SIDES
ON BOTH SIDES THE DEMOCRATIC
TICKET MARTIN O'MALLEY NOT
REGISTERING A PERCENT YET.
WHAT DONALD TRUMP AND TED CRUZ
ARE DOING AFTER THAT RAND PAUL.
THE MORE ESTABLISHMENT
CANDIDATES NOT REGISTERING
VIRTUALLY NOT REGISTERING AT
ALL. IN FACT YOU DON'T SEE MIKE
HUCKABEE ON THAT LIST, JOHN
KASICH YOU SEE CARLY FIORINA
JUST STRETCHING UP.
SOME OF THOSE CANDIDATES AREN'T
EVEN HERE TODAY JOHN.
JOHN KASICH, JEB BUSH, CHRIS
CHRISTIE THEY DIDN'T EVEN COME
HERE. THEY ARE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE RIGHT
NOW TODAY GETTING READY FOR THE
NEXT CONTEST ON FEBRUARY 9th.
THE BATTLE FOR TOP OF SPOT STILL
PLAYING OUT STILL TOO EARLY TO
TELL. WE MO WHO THE LIKELY WINNERS ARE
ON BOTH OF THESE CONTESTS.
ON THE DEMOCRATIC SITE IT'S ONE
OFSIDES IT'S ONEOF TWO PEOPLE.
AND REPUBLICAN STILL YET TO BE
SEEN JOHN. >> THERE WERE PROBLEMS FROM THE
RESULTS WITH THE VOTE TOTALS
FROM THE CAUCUSES.
HAVE YOU HEARD OF ANY PROBLEMS
YET?
>> NO, NO BALLOTS SHOULD BE
LEAVING THE BALLOTING PLACES, SO
ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE THERE
AREN'T BALLOTS, IT IS A HAND
VOTE. SENDS IN THE DATA, WHAT THEY'LL
DO ASK THE MICROSOFT CAN CAPTURE
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WERE 250
PEOPLE IN THE CAUCUS, THEY CAN'T
REGISTER 275 VOTES BUT THERE
ARE -- IT'S STILL SUBJECT TO
ROUNDING ERRORS AND COUNTING
ERRORS AND THINGS LIKE THAT.
WHAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO IS
GET RESULTS IN IN A MORE SPEEDY
FASHION. WHAT ARE YOUR NUMBERS SHOWING?
ABOUT 25% OF THE DEMOCRATS IN
RIGHT NOW AND ABOUT 17% ROUGHLY
YOUR NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE BIT
DIFFERENT THAN MINE BECAUSE WE
ARE USING DIFFERENT SOURCES.
IT'S MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY JOHN.
>> DAVID WHAT MAKES THIS
CONTEST IN IOWA SO IMPORTANT
GOING FORWARD?
>> LET'S START WITH THE
DEMOCRATS BECAUSE AGAIN THESE
ARE THE NUMBERS THESE ARE
REPRESENTING THE DELEGATES
HILLARY CLINTON WITH 140, BERNIE
SANDERS 125.
KEEP IN MIND THAT THE BIGGEST
COUNTIES WHERE BNDERS EXPECTING
TO DO WELL, IOWA CITY FOR
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, WHY STATE IS
LOCATED, THESE NUMBERS HAVEN'T
COME IN SO THESE NUMBERS ARE
GOING TO BE MISLEADING.
ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, A
KNOWLEDGE SHIPUP BETWEEN TWO
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES, DONALD
TRUMP AND TED CRUZ, HOPING THAT
A GUY LIKE MARCO RUBIO OR JEB
BUSH OR CHRIS CHRISTIE CAN
SOMEHOW BREAK IN TO THE TOP
TIER. THESE RESULTS AFTER A YEAR, THE
CANDIDATES ARE MEETING THE
PEOPLE LOOKING THEM IN THE EYE.
AND THAT'S WHY TONIGHT'S
JUDGMENT IS SO IMPORTANT FOR THE
REST OF THE WORLD.
♪ THIS LAND IS YOUR LAND ♪
♪ THIS LAND IS MY LAND.
>> IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ONE OF
THE QUIRKIEST AND UNPREDICTABLE
PRESIDENTIAL RACES IN DECADES.
>> WHAT THE HELL DO WE HAVE TO
TALK SO MUCH, JUST DO IT RIGHT?
>> THE RESULTS WILL BEGIN TO
ANSWER SOME KEY QUESTIONS.
HOW VULNERABLE IS THE POLITICAL
ESTABLISHMENT? >> YOU KNOW BEFORE IT WAS CALLED
OBAMACARE IT WAS CALLED HILLARY
CARE. >> AND WHAT'S THE DEPTH AND
DURATION OF VOTER ANGER?
FOR THE CANDIDATES A WIN OR
SURPRISINGLY STRONG FINISH
TONIGHT WILL MEAN A BONANZA OF
MEDIA ATTENTION.
AND VOTERS WHO ARE BEGINNING TO
PAY ATTENTION, IN THE REPUBLICAN
RACE THE FOCUS IS ON DONALD
TRUMP.
>> UNLESS I WIN I WOULD CONSIDER
IT A BIG FAT BEAUTIFUL AND BY
THE WAY VERY EXPENSIVE WASTE OF
TIME. >> THE CELEBRITY AND BILLIONAIRE
LEADING EVERY GOP NATIONAL AND
STATEWIDE POLE.
>> BY THE WAY WE HAVE THE
BIGGEST CROWDS BY FAR.
>> IF HE WINS THE CAUCUSES,
TRUMP, ACCORDING TO TED CRUZ,
COULD WIN THE TABLE.
>> IF HE WENT ON TO WIN NEW
HAMPSHIRE NEW HAMPSHIRE L AH AS
WELL, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE HE
COULD BE UNSTOPPABLE AND BE OUR
NOMINEE. >> CRUZ WHO SHUT DOWN TWO YEARS
AGO ANTIESTABLISHMENT
ALTERNATIVE TO TRUMP.
JUDGE IF TED CRUZ WINS THEN HE'S
GONE AFTER THE EMPEROR AND WON.
>> AMONG THE INSIDER CANDIDATES,
FLORIDA SENATOR MARCO RUBIO HIS
TOP ESTABLISHMENT RIVALS
INCLUDING JEB BUSH, CHRIS
CHRISTIE AND HAVE CERTAINLY FORMER
IOWA E-IOWA CAUCUSES WINNERS
MIKE HUCKABEE AND RICK SANTORUM,
A POOR FINISH WOULD LIKELY MEAN
THE END OF THE ROAD.
IN A DEMOCRATIC RACE HILLARY
CLINTON IS TRYING TO AVOID A
SURPRISING SET BACK.
HER CAMPAIGN IS BETTER ORGANIZED
AND FUNDED THAN EIGHT YEARS AGO.
THIS NOMINATION RACE WAS
SUPPOSED TO BE A CAROLINA CAKE
WALK. >> STICK WITH THE EXPERIENCE.
STICK WITH THE IDEAS THAT WILL
ACTUALLY WORK FOR OUR COUNTRY.
>> CLINTON'S PRAGMATISM THOUGH
HAS FACED A STRONG CHALLENGE
FROM THE PROGRESSIVE PASSION HE
EMBODIED BY DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST
BERNIE SANDERS.
>> THE STATUS QUO IS SIMPLY NOT
ACCEPTABLE. WE ARE GOING TO MAKE FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGES IN OUR ECONOMY AND OUR
POLITICAL LIFE.
>> IF SANDERS WINS TONIGHT HE
WILL LIKELY BUILD ON HIS LEAD IN
NEW HAMPSHIRE SURGE IN OTHER
STATES AND ALL BUT GUARANTEE
THAT CLINTON FACES A LONG AND
DANGEROUS NOMINATION FIGHT.
>> JOY IN THE POLITICAL
REVOLUTION, THANK YOU ALL VERY MUCH.
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> AND THOSE REVOLUTIONARIES IN
THE SANDERS CAMPAIGN ARE ALREADY
TRYING TO SPIN SOME OF THE
RESULTS. POINTING OUT THE FACT THAT THE
RACE IS AS CLOSE AS IT IS WITH
THE NUMBERS 53-47 WITH A LOT OF
PRECINCTS STILL TO GO THAT IS
SOMETHING OF A MORAL VICTORY TO
BERNIE SANDERS GIVEN THAT
HILLARY CLINTON IS THE
DEMOCRATIC ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE YET SHE'S ON THE
DEFENSE AGAINST A SOCIALIST WHO
TALKS LIKE HE WANTS TO BURN DOWN
WALL STREET.
THERE ARE THE NUMBERS ON THE
REPUBLICAN SIDE.
TED CRUZ AND DONALD TRUMP.
TED CRUZ IS PERHAPS THE MOST
HATED REPUBLICAN IN WASHINGTON
BY HIS OWN PARTY AND DONALD
TRUMP THE ULTIMATE OUTSIDER.
BAD NEWS THAT YOU HAVE TWO
PEOPLE AT THE TOP AND A FOURTH
BEN CARSON COMING IN THERE AS
WELL WHO HAS NO POLITICAL
EXPERIENCE AGAIN THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY'S LOOKING FOR THEIR
ANTEDOTE THEIR CLOSING BEHIND,
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TRUMP CRUZ
AND RUBIO.
JOHN. >> IF YOU PUT CRUZ AND DRURCHL
AND BEN CARSON TOGETHER,
SO-CALLED OUTERS, YOU'VE GOT
ABIG PORTION OF THE POLLING IN
IOWA. >> 65% WANTED SOABL WHO WAS
EITHER HATED BY THE
ESTABLISHMENT AND HATED IN THE
SENATE OR TWO POLITICAL
CANDIDATES NO POLITICAL
EXPERIENCE.
THAT'S WHY THE REPUBLICAN
LEADERS AND THE PARTY APPARATUS
ARE SO NERVOUS ABOUT THE
DIRECTION AND ANGER THAT THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS.
>> BY THE WAY BEN CARSON IS
GOING TO FLORIDA GETTING READY
TO LEAVE IOWA I GUESS AFTER HE
SAW THE RESULTS.
OR MAYBE HE PLANNED IT ALREADY.
>> WHERE A LOT OF PEOPLE GO TO
DIE, JOHN.
>> OR HAVE FUN.
>> OR FROM CAMPAIGNS TOO.
>> YOU HAD TO SAY THAT.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS
ABOUT THE IOWA CAUCUSES IS WHY
IOWA?
THE STATE'S POPULATION IS
OBVIOUSLY SMALLER THAN THE CITY
OF LOS ANGELES BUT BEING FIRST
IT CARRIES AN OUTSIZED INFLUENCE
IN PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS.
MARY SNOW IS HERE WITH A LOOK AT
THE IOWA CAUCUSES AND HOW THEY
WORK.
MARY.
>> QUIRKY IS A WORD YOU'VE USED
TO DESCRIBE THE IOWA CAUCUSES.
DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS HAVE
THEIR OWN SYSTEMS.
REPUBLICANS HAVE A SECRET BALLOT
AND THE PROCESS FOR DEMOCRATS IS
MORE PHYSICAL, WHY IOWA HAS A
PROMINENT ROLE?
YOU HAVE TO GO BACK MORE THAN
FOUR DECADES. YES, IT'S KNOWN THAT IOWA IS THE
FIRST IN THE NATION TO WEIGH IN
ON THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BUT
LESS WELL-KNOWN ARE THE QUIRKS
BEHIND ITS CAUCUS SYSTEM.
STARTING WHY IT BECAME SUCH A
DRAW FOR PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS.
IN 1972 IT WAS ONLY BY CHANCE
THAT DEMOCRATS IN IOWA SCHEDULED
THEIR CAUCUS EARLIER THAN
EVERYONE ELSE.
>> GOOD MORNING HOW ARE YOU?
>> 1976, REPUBLICANS IN THE
STATE JOINED THEM.
>> I'M RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT.
>> JIMMY CARTER DID WELL THAT
YEAR IN IOWA AND WENT ON TO WIN
THE WHITE HOUSE IOWA CEMENTED
ITS FIRST IN THE NATION STATUS.
AND DRAKE UNIVERSITY'S DENNIS
GOLDFORD SAYS WITH IT COMES A
PROCESS UNLIKE OTHER PRIMARIES
WHERE CAUCUS GOERS CAST THEIR
VOTE OVER A DAY.
>> YOU'VE GOT TO BE PREPARED TO
SPEND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF HOURS
THERE, YOU'VE GOT TO HOPE
THERE'S NO BLIZZARD, THE CAR
STARTS AND THERE'S NOBODY SICK
IN THE FAMILY.
>> PUBLIC PLACES LIKE CHURCHES
SCHOOLS AND LIBRARIES ARE THE
PLACE USED IN CAUCUS SITES IN
THE 1681 PRECINCTS.
IN REMOTE RURAL AREAS A CAUCUS
MIGHT BE HELD IN A PRIVATE HOME.
ONCE NIGHT RULES ARE DIFFERENT
DEPENDING ON THE PARTY.
REPUBLICANS HAVE THE MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD PROCESS.
AFTER HEARING FROM SURROGATES
FOR CANDIDATES THEY WRITE THEIR
CHOICE ON A PIECE OF PAPER.
VOTERS ARE COUNTED AND REPORTED
TO PRECINCT OFFICIALS.
FOR DEMOCRATS IT'S MORE
COMPLICATED.
>> PEOPLE PHYSICALLY HAVE TO
STAND UP FOR THEIR PREFERRED
CANDIDATE.
SO IN THIS YEAR'S THREE-PERSON
RACE THEY WILL SAY EVERYBODY IN
FAVOR EVER HILLARY CLINTON GO TO
THAT CORNER.
EVERYBODY IN FAVOR OF BERNIE
SANDERS, GO TO THIS CORNER.
EVERYBODY IN FAVOR MARTIN
O'MALLEY GO TO THAT CORNER AND
EVERYBODY WHO IS STILL UNDECIDED
UNDECLARED GO TO ANOTHER CORNER.
THEN THESE ARE CALLED PREFERENCE
GROUPS.
>> IN ORDER TO BE VIABLE, A
PREFERENCE GROUP HAS TO HAVE A
CERTAIN PERCENTAGE OF SUPPORT OF
THOSE PRESENT AT THE CAUCUS.
IF IT DOESN'T MEET THE
THRESHOLD, THE GROUP IS
DISSOLVED AND OTHERS TRY WIN
OVER ITS MEMBERS.
>> PEOPLE ARE ENTICED TO GO
OVER EVEN IF SOMEBODY IS IN A
PREFERENCE GROUP FOR SAY HILLARY
CLINTON, SANDERS GROUP MAY SAY
COME ON YOU DON'T REALLY SUPPORT
HER YOU WANT TO SUPPORT BERNIE.
THERE IS A LOT OF HORSE TRADING
AND CAJOLING LIKE THAT.
IT'S INTERESTING TO WATCH.
>> BUT IOWA HAS ITS PIT FALLS
AND IOWA HAD EGG ON ITS FACE IN
2012 WHEN PARTY RULERS DECLARED
MITT ROMNEY THE WINNER.
>> MITT ROMNEY WITH 274 VOTES.
>> ONLY TO ANNOUNCE TWO WEEKS
LATER THERE HAD BEEN A MISCOUNT.
RICK SANTORUM WAS THE ACTUAL
WINNER AND MANY ARGUE THAT
MISTAKE COST SANTORUM ALL
IMPORTANT MOMENTUM.
THEY'RE MAKING SURE THAT HISTORY
DOESN'T REPEAT ITSELF.
AND THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS IN
2012 SHOWED HOW RAZOR THIN IT
WAS.
SANTORUM HAD WON BY 34 VOTES
TWO WEEKS LATER.
>> IT TOOK TWO BEEKS.
ALL RIGHTWEEKS.WE'RE ONLY TALKING
ABOUT A
RELATIVELY SMALL NUMBER OF
VOTERS RIGHT?
>> RIGHT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT BOTH PARTIES
IT'S A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN
100,000 EACH IN EACH PARTY.
THE EXCEPTION WAS 2008, BARACK
OBAMA WON ON THE DEMOCRATIC
SIDE, THERE WAS RECORD TURNOUT
AMONG DEMOCRATS AND EVENING THEN
WHEN YOU COUNTED ALL OF THE
PEOPLE WHO TURNED OUT BOTH
REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT IT ONLY
ADDED UP TO ABOUT 350,000.
>> IT WAS CLOSE FOUR YEARS AGO
IT COULD BE CLOSE AGAIN TONIGHT.
DUARTE GERALDINO IS AT DRAKE
UNIVERSITY IN DES MOINES WHERE
THE CAUCUS IS ABOUT TO BREAK UP
RIGHT QATAR?
QATAR?
DUARTE? >> I DON'T WANT TO MAKE TOO MUCH
NOISE BUT BEHIND ME YOU CAN SEE
HOW PACKED WE ARE.
THE SUITS ARE STANDING UP AND
THEY ARE GOING TO LITERAL MOVE
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
CANDIDATE THEY REPRESENT. TO GIVE YOU AN UNDERSTANDING YOU
HOW CROWDED THIS REAM IS THERE
ARE ABOUT 252 SEATS IN THIS ROOM
AND IT WAS BOOKED ON THE BASIS
OF TURNOUT DURING THE LAST
CAUCUS.
RIGHT NOW THEY HAD A COUNT IN
THIS ROOM.
485 PEOPLE IN THIS ROOM.
THAT'S ALMOST TWICE THE ORIGINAL
NUMBER IT GIVES YOU AGAIN AN
INDICATION OF HOW MANY PEOPLE
ARE INTERESTED IN THIS
PARTICULAR RACE. NOW THIS PARTICULAR PRECINCT HAD
SOME ADDED BENEFITS.
MARTIN O'MALLEY DID COME
PERSONALLY HERE TO SPEAK WITH
HIS SUPPORTERS, TO HAVE A HIGHER
REPRESENTATION.
BASED ON THAT NUMBER THEY HAVE
THAT 15% BREAKING POINT.
IN ORDER FOR A CANDIDATE TO BE
VIABLE THEY NEED TO HAVE 73
VOTES, SO RIGHT NOW THERE'S A
LOT OF TALKING RIGHT NOW
PERSUADING PEOPLE TO JOIN ONE
SIDE OR THE OTHER.
THIS SHOULD GO ON FOR ABOUT A
HALF AN HOUR BEFORE THEY DECIDE
WHAT'S THE NEXT STEP.
>> CLEARLY, THEY'RE NOT BREAK
PICKUP.
BUT THEY HAVEN'T EVEN DECIDED ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS AT DRAKE
UNIVERSITY AND LOOKS LIKE
THEY'RE GOING TO BE THERE FOR A
WHILE. WE'LL GET BACK TO YOU DUARTE,
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
THE NEWS AGENCIES ARE GETTING
A LITTLE DIFFERENT READ OF THE
RESULTS. ALI VELSHI.
>> I CERTAINLY RECALL LAST TIME
THE IOWA CAUCUSES I WAS ON TV
UNTIL 3 4 5:00 IN THE MORNING.
THE OLD SYSTEM WAS THAT THEY
WOULD PHONE IN THE RESULTS AND
THAT'S HOW IT WOULD ALL GET
TABULATED. IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE IN 2000 AND
ANYTHING THAT THAT'S HOW WE DO
ANYTHING. MICROSOFT HAS PARTNERED WITH
BOTH PARTIES THERE'S A DONKEY
HERE AND AN ELEPHANT HAD.
MICROSOFT IS GIVING ALL OF THE
CAPTAINS IN THE PRECINCTS THE
PEOPLE WHO ARE SUPPOSED TO
REPORT THE RESULT AN APP ON
THEIR PHONE. IT'S GOT A TWO-STEP
IDENTIFICATION, THEY DETERMINE THAT THEY'RE THERE THEY PUT IN
THE RESULTS PER PRECINCT.
THE APP DOES A LITTLE BIT OF
MATH SO IT WILL TELL THEM
WHETHER OR NOT THEY HAVE PUT IN
MORE VOTES THAN THE PEOPLE WHO
ARE ACTUALLY IN THE ROOM AND
THAT THEN WILL BE TRANSMITTED
EFFICIENTLY TO THE RIGHT
PARTIES.
MICROSOFT IS NOT AT ALL INVOLVED
IN THE COUNTING OR TABULATING OF
THE RESULTS BUT THEY ARE
INVOLVED IN EFFICIENTLY
TRANSMITTING THAT INFORMATION IN
A WAY YOU WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE
DONE IN 2016.
I HAD A QUESTION WITH DANEL
LEWEN TO EXPLAIN HOW THIS
WORKED.
>> FOR INSTANCE, IF THERE WERE
100 IN THE ROOM AND SOMEONE
TRIED OINPUT A NUMBER GREATER
THAN 100 THE MOBILE DEVICE SAID
THAT WOULDN'T SEEM RIGHT THAT
WOULDN'T ALLOW FOR THOSE KIND OF
ANOMALIES.
ON THE OTHER SIDE, IF THERE IS A
PROBLEM IDENTIFIED AT THE PARTY
HEADQUARTERS BEFORE THEY RELEASE
THE RESULTS THEY CAN PHONE BACK
TO THE PRECINCT AND ASK AND
VERIFY ANY KIND OF QUESTION THAT
MIGHT LOOK ODD.
>> SO JOHN ONCE THE STUFF IS
TRANSLATED OR TRANSMITTED USING
THE APP, TO THE CENTRAL PARTY
THE PARTY THE STATE PARTY BOTH
THE REPUBLICANS AND THE
DEMOCRATS, REMEMBER MICROSOFT IS
WORKING WITH BOTH OF THEM, WILL
HAVE TO TABULATE AND CERTIFY THE
RESULTS SEND THEM BACK
ELECTRONICALLY TO MICROSOFT AND
THEY WILL BE DISPLAYED HERE ON
THIS SCREEN BEHIND ME.
THIS IS HOW WE'RE GOING TO GET
THE INFORMATION. IT'S NOT GOING TO BE HAPHAZARD
WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE WAITING
FOR PHONING PEOPLE AND FINDING
OUT WHAT'S GOING ON AND FRANKLY
IF THIS ALL COMES TOGETHER AND
WORKS PROPERLY JOHN, I AM GOING
TO BE IN BED MUCH EARLIER THAN I
WAS THE LAST TIME THERE WAS AN
IOWA CAUCUS.
JOHN. >> ALL RIGHT ALI, THANK YOU
JEANNIE JOE AND DAVID ARE BACK.
JEANNIE I WANT TO START WITH
YOU. IF THE NUMBERS ARE CORRECT AND
TED CRUZ WINS WITH DONALD TRUMP
SECOND THE POLLS WOULD BE
TOTALLY WRONG RIGHT?
>> THE POLLS WOULD BE WRONG.
THE DES MOINES REGISTER POLL IS
THE GOLD STANDARD.
CLEARLY TRUMP WAS IN THE LEAD.
BUT THERE ARE SOME TROUBLING
SIGNS FOR TED CRUZ.
TURNOUT FOR FIRST TIME CAUCUS
GOERS IS VERY MANY HIGHER AND
EVENLY FOR TRUMP AND CRUZ, THIS
MAY BE A BAD SIGN FOR CRUZ AS
MORE NUMBERS COME IN.
WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
>> JUST 22% OF THE PRECINCTS
REPORTING.
IT'S A VERY EARLY NIGHT.
>> AGAIN IT'S VERY EARLY STILL
AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CANDIDATES TO SPIN IT THE WAY
THEY NEED TO SPIN TO IT THEIR
SUPPORTERS. IF YOU ARE DONALD TRUMP
SUPPORTERS WE'LL SAY WAIT AND
SEE, THERE ARE LOTS OF NEW
VOTERS. >> LOTS OF THINGS WE DO WHEN
WE'RE OFF CAMERA TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT WHY IT IS THE
DEMOCRATS HAVE SOFUL MORE
PRECINCTS REPORTING DAVID THAN
THE REPUBLICANS.
CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY DAVID?
>> YOU LEAN ON ME.
>> WE DO ALL THE TIME.
>> A REPRESENTATIVE FROM EACH
CAMPAIGN GETS TO SPEAK AT THE
CAUCUS.
SO IN SOME OF THE PLACES LIKE
DES MOINES AND THE LARGER CITIES
YOU WILL HAVE 11 SPEECHES, A
REPRESENTATIVE FROM EVERY
CAMPAIGN WHO WILL SPEAK SAYING
HERE IS WHY YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR
MY CANDIDATE SOMETIMES IN THESE
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES IT TAKES A
WHILE WHEN YOU HAVE A FIELD THAT
LARGE. LIKEWISE WITH THE DEMOCRATS THE
REASON SOME ARE FASTER IT'S A
VERY SIMPLE THREE CANDIDATES AND
THEN THEY GO TO THE SIDE OF THE
ROOM. >> I THOUGHT WE WERE TOLD THE
DEMOCRATS WOULD HAVE A MORE
COMPLICATED PROCESS BECAUSE THEY
ARGUED ABOUT WHO THEY ARE GOING
TO VOTE FOR BUT APPARENTLY NOT.
>> APPARENTLY IT IS GOING TO BE
COMPLICATED IN LARGER PRECINCTS
DES MOINES, IOWA CITY, CEDAR
RAPIDS. WHEN YOU HAVE 500 PEOPLE SHOW UP
THOSE ARE THE PRECINCTS TO
REPORT.
REPORT LAST.
>> WE'LL COME BACK.
HOW SOME CANDIDATES ARE HOARDING
THE EVANGELICAL VOTE, DON'T GO
AWAY.
>> ALL RIGHT, WE'RE BACK HERE IN
THE MEDIA CENTER IN DES MOINES,
IOWA. YOU CAN SEE ALMOST AIL THE
COUNTIES HAVE REPORTED NOW.
ON THE RIGHT THE REPUBLICAN, WE
GOT ABOUT 25% ABOUT HALF AS
MANY OF THE COUNTIES.
TED CRUZ STILL LEADING, DONALD
TRUMP NUMBER 2.
MARCO RUBIO IN THE THIRD
POSITION BY LESS THAN TEN
POINTS.
LET'S GO TO MICHAEL SHURE HE IS
AT ONE OF THE CAUCUSES RIGHT
NOW. MICHAEL WHAT ARE YOU LEARNING
ABOUT THE RUBIO CAMP?
>> WELL, YOU KNOW I'VE SPOKEN TO
THE RUBIO CAMP.
I SPOKE TO SOMEBODY A DEPUTY IN
THEIR COMMUNICATIONS DEPARTMENT
ALI SAY THEY ARE VERY PLEASED
HOW IT'S GOING TONIGHT THE
RESPONSE THEY'RE GETTING.
THEY'RE DOING ENTRY POLLS ALSO
SPOKE TO A PRECINCT CAPTAIN ONE
OF THE BIGGER REPUBLICAN
CAUCUSES IN WATERLOO, THEY SAY
THEY ARE VERY IMPRESSED WITH HOW
RUBIO IS GOING.
VERY POSSIBLY ONE OF THE STORIES
WE COME OUT TOMORROW WITH IS NOT
JUST MARCO RUBIO FINISHED THIRD
BUT A STRONG THIRD WHICH BODES
INTERESTINGLY.
BEN CARSON AS JOHN SIEGENTHALER
SAID A WHILE AGO HAS GONE HOME.
LOT TO READ INTO THAT.
HE WAS ONCE LEADING IN THE POMS,
HISPOLLS, HE IS ONLY GOING HOME
BECAUSE THERE IS A STORM COMING
IN AND HE WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO
FLY AND HE NEEDS TO CHANGE.
HEADING TO A CAMPAIGN, THIS
WOULD BE THE END OF RICK
SANTORUM PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN,
RICK SANTORUM NEVER REALLY
RESONATED WITH THE SAME
EVANGELICALS THAT GAVE HIM A WIN
FOUR YEARS AGO.
THE EVANGELICAL VOTE IS SO
IMPORTANT HERE, I GOT A CHANCE
TO SPEND SOME TIME WITH THAT
VOTING SEGMENT A FEW WEEKS AGO.
>> ONLY TWO WEEKS AGO TED CRUZ
SURGED IN IOWA, JUMPED 21 POINTS
TO THE FRONT OF THE GOP PAC.
BUT IN AN APPARENT TURN AROUND
SINCE THEN BEGINNING WITH HIS
CONVOCATION AT JERRY FALLWELL'S
LIBERTY UNIVERSITY, DONALD TRUMP
SEEMS TO HAVE CLOSED THE
EVANGELICAL GAP.
>> WE'RE GOING TO PROTECT
CHRISTIANITY, I DON'T HAVE TO BE
POLITICALLY CORRECT.
>> YOU SAY FATHER GOD PLEASE
CONTINUE.
>> AS FOR CRUZ HE'S DOUBLING
DOWN ON THE FAITHFUL.
>> AWAKEN THE BODY OF CHRIST
THAT WE MIGHT PULL BACK FROM
THIS ABYSS.
>> ABORTION ALONG WITH MARRIAGE
EQUALITY AND WHAT THEY CALL
RELIGIOUS LIBERTY ARE OF UTMOST
IMPORTANCE TO IOWA'S STRONG
EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN VOTING
BLOCK.
>> IS THERE ANY WIGGLE ROOM ON
THESE VOTERS?
>> FOR EVANGELICAL VOTERS NO, I
DON'T THINK THERE'S A LOT OF
WIGGLE ROOM.
>> PASTOR WARREN HUNSBERGER
LEADS THIS GROUP WHILE SOME
OTHER EVANGELICAL MINISTER SEEM
TO LEAD THEIR CONGREGATION, HE
DOESN'T. >> WILL YOU TELL THEM WHO YOU'RE
VOTING FOR?
>> NEVER, NEVER HEAR THAT FROM
ME ON PURPOSE.
>> BUT HE DOES WELCOME CANDIDATES TO HIS CHURCH SHOULD
THEY CALL.
SOMETHING THAT TED CRUZ AND
CARLY FIORINA BOTH DID RECENTLY.
HUNSBREERG SAW ITSBERGER SAW IT AS
AN
OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE CONCLUSIONS
ON THEIR OWN.
>> IT SEEMS CRAZY THAT ANY OF US
CAN BE SEPARATED FROM OUR FAITH
OUR VALUES WHEN WE ENTER THE
POLITICAL PROCESS.
>> IN 2012 IT WAS RICK SANTORUM,
BOTH LOST THE NOMINATION AND
BOTH ARE NOT EVEN POLLING WELL
ENOUGH OMAKE IT ON TO THE MAIN
DEBATE STAGE.
>> IOWA IS NEVER MEANT TO BE THE
STAGE OF WE'RE GOING TO DECIDE
WHO IS GOING TO BE THE
EVENTUALLY NOMINEE.
IT'S THE WINNOWING OUT PROCESS.
>> A LONG TIME POLITICAL
OPERATIVE HERE, HE UNDERSTANDS
EVANGELICAL VOTERS AND THEIR
EXPECTATIONS. HE SEES A DIFFERENCE IN THE WAY
THEY APPROACH POLITICS NOW AS
OPPOSED TO WHEN HE BEGAN.
HE SEES NEW EVANGELICALS AS MORE
DEMANDING. >> POLITICS IS NOT ABOUT
PERFECTION. IT DOESN'T MEAN YOU HOLD THE
CANDIDATE'S FEET TO THE FIRE AND
GET THEM TO ANSWER THE TOUGH
QUESTIONS.
YOU WON'T SEE JESUS CHRIST NAME
ON THE BALLOT ANY TIME SOON.
>> TRACING ITS ROOTS TO THE
UPSTART CANDIDACY OF PAT
ROBERTSON IN 1988.
FINISHED SECOND IN IOWA THAT
YEAR ALERTING THE PARTY TO AN
UNTAPPED AND VITAL VOTING BLOCK.
>> THESE ARE VERY, VERY FAITHFUL
CAUCUS GOERS.
THEY REALLY SHOW UP DON'T MISS
THE CAUCUSES.
>> THEY DON'T OFTEN MISS CHURCH
ON SUNDAY.
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES KNOW THAT
VERY WELL.
AND YOU KNOW ALI AS I STAND IN
THIS ROOM AS ROOSEVELT HIGH
SCHOOL A DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS NOT A
LOT OF EVANGELICAL VOTERS IN
HERE. BEHIND ME THEY ARE STILL TRYING
TO TAKE THE O'MALLEY VOTERS AND
THE UNCOMMITTED TO THE OTHER
SIDE. ITIT WILL BE PART OF THE
POSTSCRIPT WHEN WE HEAR THAT
TOMORROW.
ALI. >> MICHAEL SHURE IN DES MOINES.
LET'S GO BACK TO THE STUDIO,
JOHN.
>> TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NUMBER OF
PRECINCTS REPORTING FOR
REPUBLICANS WHICH IS SMALLER
THAN THE NUMBER REPORTING FOR
DEMOCRATS.
DAVID MIGHT HAVE AN ANSWER.
>> THE STATE REPUBLICAN PARTY
REPORTING ITS WEBSITE BOTH TO
COLLECT THE INFORMATION FROM THE
VARIOUS PRECINCTS AND TO PASS
THEM ALONG PUBLICLY, THAT
WEBSITE CRASHED A HALF HOUR AGO.
AN HOUR INTO THE CAUCUS, THE
WEBSITE WENT DOWN.
IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR IF IT'S
BEEN FIXED THE NUMBERS SEEM TO
BE CATCHING AGAIN BUT THE POINT
IS THERE WAS SUCH INTEREST
WITHIN IOWA AND ALSO EXTERNALLY
THAT THE WEBSITE CAME DOWN AND
THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY
THE NUMBERS ON THE REPUBLICAN
SIDE ARE SO SMALL.
>> FORMER REPUBLICAN JACK CASON
JOINS US FROM WASHINGTON D.C.
JUST GIVE ME YOUR REACTION TO
THE NUMBERS AGAIN JACK.
>> YOU KNOW I.T. LOOKS LIKE CRUZ
IS HOLDING THE WAY THE POLLS
SHOW THAT HE'S ON TOP IT'S TIGHT
WITH TRUMP RUBIO IS IN THIRD
AND THAT'S WHAT THE POLLS HAVE
BEEN TELLING US. I THINK THE STORY RIGHT NOW IS
THAT CARSON IN A SOLID FOURTH
PLACE.
HE'S NOT DOWN IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS THE WAY SO MANY OF THE
OTHER FAMILIAR NAMES ARE
HUCKABEE BUSH, KASICH, SO
FORTH.THINK RIGHT NOW MAYBE THE
STORY IS THAT THIS BREATHES SOME
LIFE INTO THE BEN CARSON
CANDIDACY. IF THESE NUMBERS HOLD WE'VE GOT
ABOUT 25% IN.
IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO DRAW ANY
CONCLUSIONS AND GEOGRAPHICALLY,
I'M NOT CERTAIN WHICH PRECINCTS
HAVE REPORTED OR WHICH CAUCUSES
HAVE REPORTED AND THERE ARE
CERTAINLY SOME TRUMP STRONGHOLDS
SOME CRUZ STRONGHOLDS SOME
KASICH STRONG HOLDS AND SO
FORTH, THAT'S GOING TO HAVE A
BIG DETERMINATION ON THE NUMBERS
BUT THE REALITY IS SO FAR EVEN
THOUGH NIGHT IS YOUNG CRUZ
NUMBERS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE NATIONAL
POLLING FIRMS.
>> I JUST WANT TO GET YOUR
REACTION TO THE DEMOCRATIC RACE
RIGHT NOW. THERE WAS A LOT OF TALK ABOUT
HILLARY CLINTON.
SHE WAS LOSING GROUND IN IOWA,
BERNIE SANDERS ON THE RISE.
TAKE A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS NOW.
SHE'S BEEN SOLID THROUGHOUT
EVENING. WE'VE GOT 53% OF THE PRECINCTS
REPORTING.
SHE'S AHEAD 51 TO 48.
WHAT HAPPENED? >> YOU KNOW, I DON'T KNOW.
I WOULD SUSPECT THAT HILLARY
CLINTON PROBABLY HAS A BETTER
GROUND GAME THAN BERNIE SANDERS.
I THINK BERNIE SANDERS AND
DONALD TRUMP HAD THAT EXCITEMENT
FACTOR A GREAT ENERGY BUT I
THINK WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IOWA
POLITICS, HOW MANY PEOPLE DO YOU HAVE ON THE GROUND IN THE 99
COUNTIES REALLY MAKES A
DIFFERENCE. AND THIS IS HILLARY CLINTON --
IT IS NOT HER FIRST TIME IN
TOWN YOU KNOW?
SHE KNOWS IT, SHE KNOWS IT FROM
WHEN SHER SHE RAN IN '08 AND WHEN
HER HUSBAND RAN.
MORE THAN 55% HAVE REPORTED IN
NOW.
>> MORE THAN 55% FOR THE
DEMOCRATS.
IF YOU ARE IN THE RNC TONIGHT
AND LOOKING AT THOSE NUMBERS AND
THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL
COMMITTEE HAD HOPED THAT THEY
WOULD HAVE A NOMINEE IN THE NEXT
MONTH OR SO, THAT WAS A YEAR
BACK. WHAT ARE THEY THINKING TONIGHT?
>> WELL, I THINK IF YOU THINK
ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN '08 IN
THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUSES IN IOWA
THERE WERE ABOUT 120,000 VOTES.
SOMETHING LIKE SIX OR 700,000
VOLTED IN THE DEMOCRAT CAUCUS.
YOU HAD A NONTRADITIONAL
EXCITING FRESH-FACED CANDIDATE
IN BARACK OBAMA.
NOW IT APPEARS THAT'S WHAT TRUMP
IS DOING AND CRUZ AND CARSON.
YOU HAVE THESE NONWASHINGTONIAN
CANDIDATES.
YOU GO INTO SOUTH CAROLINA, NEW
HAMPSHIRE, NEVADA, THE SEC
SUPER-TUESDAY, IF THESE NEW
VOTERS FLOCK TO THE PARTY I
THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A GREAT
THING. I THINK THE RACE WILL BE SETTLED
WHICH MAY OR JUNE BUT IT CAN GO
ON THE WAY THE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY
WENT ON AND ON IN '08 BETWEEN
HILLARY CLINTON AND BARACK OBAMA
AND IT DID NOT HURT THE PARTY.
I THINK YOU KNOW THIS KIND OF
THING IN WASHINGTON, SO MANY
PEOPLE WANT TO SET THE RULES.
THEY'RE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE
EXCITING DYNAMIC OF THE
CONSTITUTION IN ACTION BUT I
THINK IT'S A GOOD THING FOR
PARTY AND THE COUNTRY.
>> ALL RIGHT JACK WE'LL GET BACK
TO YOU.
I JUST WANT TO ASK YOU JEANNIE
BASED ON WHAT YOU'VE SEEN
TONIGHT WHAT ARE YOU SURPRISED
THE MOST TONIGHT?
>> I'D HAVE TO SAY ON THE
REPUBLICAN SIDE I'M SURPRISED
THAT REUK RUBIO GRANTED WE ARE ONLY
AT 25% REPORTING THAT RUBIO IS
IN THIRD.
TED CRUZ HITTING RUBIO HARD
MAKING SURE HE DIDN'T COME IN A
CLOSE THIRD TO DONALD TRUMP I
THINK CRUZ IS HOPING.
BUT THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG
STORIES TONIGHT. ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, LOOKS
LIKE WE DON'T KNOW YET TURNOUT
HAS BEEN STRONG YET HILLARY
CLINTON HAS HELD HER OWN.
THAT MAY REFLECT A LOT OF THINGS
BUT CERTAINLY I THINK JACK IS
RIGHT. IT REFLECTS THAT SHE HAD THE
GROUND GAME AND THE ORGANIZATION
IN IOWA, TO PULL THIS OFF IF IT
HOLDS, WE ARE ONLY AT 55%.
>> TIER CANDIDATES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE NOW I BELIEVE WE HAVE
A PICTURE OF JEB BUSH WHO SAID
GOOD-BYE TO IOWA, LIKE SOME OF
THE OTHER CANDIDATES DID AS
WELL. BUT IF THIS HOLDS WHERE DOES THE
FIGHT END UP IN NEW HAMPSHIRE?
>> DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH MONEY YOU
HAVE OF COURSE.
JEB BUSH HAS RAVED A LOT OF RAISED
A LOT OF
MONEY.
FOR JOHN KASICH, CHRIS CHRISTIE,
THEY DON'T HAVE A STRONG SHOWING
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IT'S GOING TO
BE HARD TO PULL IT OOFF.
>> TO PUT HIS MONEY IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE, YOU HAVE GOT THE SAME
THING WITH JOHN KASICH AND CHRIS
CHRISTIE. IF MARCO RUBIO IS THE
ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE WHO HAS
DONE THE BEST, BUSH, KASICH NOT
GOING TO GET ANY EASIER FOR
MARCO RUBIO BECAUSE HE MAY GET
RID OF SOME OF THE CANDIDATES IN
IOWA BUT HE'S WALK INTO A
HORNET'S NEST COME NEW
HAMPSHIRE. >> LET'S GET BACK TOLL ACTION
AND ALI.
>> A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE TALKING
ABOUT THE INFLUENCE OF
MILLENNIALS, AND WHY THEY LIKE
THESE CANDIDATES, THE INFLUENCE
ON BERNIE SANDERS CAMPAIGN.
WE SENT DUARTE GERALDINO TO LOOK
AT THIS PHENOMENON AND HERE'S
WHAT HE FOUND.
>> JUST DAYS BEFORE THE CAUCUS,
TRAINING FOR THE CAUCUS THOSE
WHO HAVE NOT BEEN TO ONE A
HANDS-ON LESSON, WHAT HAPPENS IN
A CAUCUS.
IOWA IS A FARMING STATE.
MANY HOLD BROADLY DIVERSE VIEWS.
>> THERE'S A HUGELY
DISPROPORTIONATE AMOUNT OF
PEOPLE OF COLOR LOCKED UP.
WE CONSIDER THIS ONE OF THE
BIGGEST INJUSTICES OF OUR
GENERATION. THE SUFFERING THAT MY BLACK
BROTHERS AND SISTERS ARE
ENDURING, IT IS HEARTBREAKING.
>> WE WENT THROUGH SEPTEMBER
11th AND WE WENT THROUGH
BARACK OBAMA BEING ELECTED AND
THE INVASION OF IRAQ AND THE
FINANCIAL CRISIS.
I THINK THOSE THINGS SHAPE HOW
WE LOOK AT THE WORLD.
>> I THINK BIGGEST ISSUE WOULD
BE A FREE MARKET OBVIOUSLY.
>> RICHARD LOGAN AND REESE
FACES OF YOUNG IOWANS.
HE SAYS THE SUPREME COURT'S
HISTORIC RULING ALLOWING GAY
MARRIAGE MAKES IT EASIER FOR HIM
TO RECRUIT SUPPORTERS WHO ARE
FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE BUT
SOCIALLY LIBERAL.
>> I THINK MORE MILLENNIALS IN
THE MIDDLE WILL BE ABLE TO
SWITCH.
YOU FEEL THIS IS NOT AS MUCH OF
AN ISSUE AND THEREFORE THE
PARTY'S MORE WELCOMING?
>> YES ABSOLUTELY.
I FEEL LIKE GAY MARRIAGE IS A
BIG DIVIDING ISSUE BIG WEDGE
ISSUE ESPECIALLY FOR
MILLENNIALS.
>> MORE WELCOMING LIKE STEVE AND
RICHARD. >> GOT MARRIED FOUR, FIVE MONTHS
AGO, FIVE MONTHS AGO ALMOST, HAD
THE HONEYMOON BOUGHT THE HOUSE
NOW IT'S THE CAUCUS.
WE'VE BEEN GO GO GO GO GO.
WE'RE READY TO KIND OF SIT AND
PUT OUR FEET UP AND WOW WE'RE
MARRIED.
>> RICHARD IS A MILLENNIAL
BUILDING A LIFE WITH HIS NEW
HUSBAND STEVE.
HE'S WORRIED THAT THE ISSUE
COULD BE A RISK TO HIS FUTURE.
>> WE HAVE TO MAKE THAT WORK BUT
FOR SOME REASON OUR FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT DOESN'T DO THAT.
I BELIEVE IF WE DON'T GET THE
NUMBERS RIGHT IN THE NEXT DECADE
MY KIDS ARE NOT GOING TO HAVE
THE LIFE THAT I WANT THEM TO
HAVE THAT THE AMERICAN DREAM
SAYS THEY SHOULD HAVE.
>> REESE IS PRESIDENT OF DRAI DRAKE
UNIVERSITY YOUNG DEMOCRATS.
>> I GO TO SCHOOL FULL TIME AND
WORK I STILL CAN'T MAKE IT.
I WAS BORN WHITE MIDDLE CLASS
PRIVATE SCHOOLED ALL MY LIFE AND
EVEN I FEEL EFFECTS OF THIS, LET
ALONE THE MINORITY POPULATION
AND BORN INTO POVERTY WHO FEEL
IT WORSE.
>> AS A GENERATION THEY'RE
CONSIDERED UNRELIABLE VOTERS.
IN THE PAST THEY JUST HAVEN'T
TURNED OUT BIG NUMBERS.
THE CAUCUS PROCESS IS NOT JUST A
GAME OF NUMBERS GEOGRAPHY AND
TIMING PLAY OBIG ROLL HELD IN
JANUARY, COLLEGE STUDENTS ARE ON
BREAK NOT ON CAMPUS.
THIS YEAR IT WILL BE DIFFERENT
THE IMPACT WILL BE LICTED TO LIMITED
TO
SEVERAL POCKETS AROUND THE
STATE.
>> DIRECTOR OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES
PROJECT AT DRAKE.
>> WHEN YOU HAVE A FEW PRECINCTS
THAT ARE HEAVILY HEAVILY
POPULATED BY COLLEGE STUDENTS
THEIR VOTES WILL MATTER A GREAT
DEAL IN THOSE PRECINCTS BUT
STATEWIDE THAT'S UNLIKELY TO
HAVE A MAJOR OUTCOME ON THE VOTE
OVERALL. >> BUT SHE ALSO SEEMS TO LEAVE
THE DOOR OPEN.
IT COULD BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME.
BECAUSE OF MILLENNIALS ABILITY
TO INFLUENCE AND ORGANIZATION
ONLINE. >> IF YOU COULD PUT POLITICAL
MOTIVATION UNDER THE BUTTS OF
YOUNG PEOPLE IT BRINGS A LOT OF
MAGIC.
>> AND THAT WAS DUARTE
GERALDINO. I WANT TO TALK TO JENNIFER
LAWLESS NOW PROFESSOR AUTHOR
OF SEVERAL BOOKS INCLUDING
"RUNNING FROM OFFICE, WHY YOUNG
AMERICANS ARE TURNED OFF TO
POLITICS." JENNIFER LONDON GOOD TO SEE YOU
THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.
IN EVERY ONE OF THESE CAMPAIGNS
THERE SEEMS TO BE A HOME FOR
YOUNG PEOPLE A PLACE TO WHICH
THEY GRAVITATE.
IT WAS BARACK OBAMA IT WAS RON
PAUL ONE TIME, IT'S NOT
HAPPENING FOR RAND PAUL BUT IT'S
BERNIE SANDERS IN THIS CAMPAIGN
AND TO SOME DEGREE DONALD TRUMP.
TELL ME IS THAT A PHENOMENON OR
ARE THESE UNRELATED THINGS THAT
YOUNG PEOPLE TEND OFIND THESE
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES WHO THEY
LIKE?
>> YOUNG PEOPLE DEFINITELY
MIGRATE TOWARDS CANDIDATES THAT
DON'T REPRESENT THE
ESTABLISHMENT AND THIS
GENERATION IN PARTICULAR, WE'RE
SEEING THAT WITH TRUMP AND
SANDERS. BECAUSE TODAY'S YOUNG PEOPLE
LOOK AROUND AND ALL THEY'VE EVER
KNOWN IS A DYSFUNCTIONAL
WASHINGTON GRIDLOCK, STALEMATE
THE INABILITY TO GET THINGS
DONE.
SO THEY'RE PARTICULARLY DRAWN TO
CANDIDATES WHO WANT TO DO
SOMETHING IN A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT WAY THEY WANT TO
CHANGE THE RULES OF THE GAME.
>> DO THEY GET DISORIENTED
THOSE WHO VOTED FOR BARACK
OBAMA, AND DIDN'T GET CHANGE
THEY WANTED OR, THIS PERSON
SPEAKS IN PLAIN LANGUAGE, THEY
SEEM TO WANT TO GET THINGS DONE
AND THEY'RE NOT PART OF THE
ESTABLISHMENT WHAT MOWS
RESONATES WITH THEM?
>> IT'S A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH.
IN PART THE PEOPLE THAT THOUGHT
THAT BARACK OBAMA WAS GOING TO
DELIVER CRAZY CHANGE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE LAST EIGHT YEARS
AND FILED TO DO SO MIGHT BE
TURNED OFF. AND WHAT WE FOUND IN OUR
RESEARCH IS THOSE PEOPLE NOW
THINK THAT ELECTORAL POLITICS IS
NOT THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY TO
SOLVE PROBLEMS. BUT FOR A NEW CROP OF YOUNG
PEOPLE THE MESSAGES OF
CANDIDATES LIKE TRUMP OR CRUZ OR
SANDERS OR EVEN RUBIO
CANDIDATES THAT DON'T LOOK LIKE
THE TRADITIONAL ESTABLISHMENT
THAT DON'T LOOK LIKE POLITICS AS
USUAL SEEM TO GENERATE A SENSE
OF HOPE AND OPTIMISM AMONG YOUNG
AMERICANS.
>> YOU'VE ALSO WRITTEN BOOKS
ABOUT WOMEN AND THE ROLE WOMEN
PLAY IN POLITICS.
ONE OF THE THINGS YOU'VE NOTED
IS WOMEN WERE NOT MONOLITHIC IN
THE SAME WAY WHY ARE WOMEN NOT
SUPPORTING HILLARY CLINTON EN
MASSE, THEY ARE VOTING FOR THE
SAME ISSUES THAT MEN ARE.
>> THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.
WOMEN ARE MORE LIKELY THAN MEN
TO SUPPORT DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATES, THERE'S BEEN A
SUBSTANTIAL GENDER GAP SINCE
1980 WITH WOMEN MORE LIKELY THAN
MEN TO SUPPORT THE DEMOCRATS.
BUT AMONG THE WOMEN THERE IS A
LOT OF VARIATION AND IN A
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY NOT ALL WOMEN
ARE THE SAME AND ONE WOMEN IN
PARTICULAR LIKE MILLENNIALS IN
GENERAL SUPPORTING BERNIE
SANDERS. >> PROFESSOR JENNIFER LAWLESS
GOOD TO SEE YOU, THANK YOU FOR
BEING WITH US.
JOHN. >> THANK YOU ALI.
WE WANT TO GO TO MICHAEL SHURE
AT ROOSEVELT HIGH SCHOOL WHERE
THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS CONTINUES.
WE'RE ABOUT AN HOUR AND 45
MINUTES IN, MICHAEL.
>> IT IS CONTINUING AND JUST TO
PAINT A PICTURE FOR YOU JOHN,
YOU HAVE THE HILLARY CLINTON
PEOPLE OVER ON ONE SIDE, BEHIND
ME ARE WHAT'S LEFT OF THE MARTIN
O'MALLEY PEOPLE.
THEY ARE NOT VIABLE, THEY ARE
STAYING TOGETHER, INCLUDING ONE
GIRL WHO HAS GIVEN UP AN ENTIRE
YEAR TO WORK FOR MARTIN
O'MALLEY. BUT JUST NOW SOME OF THEM WENT
OVER TO THE BERNIE SANDERS SIDE,
THIS IS JUST ILLUSTRATIVE OF
WHAT THE CAUCUS IS LIKE AND HOW
IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY WHEN THERE
IS THIS MANY PEOPLE, 272 PEOPLE
THEY'RE COUNTERING.
EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT VIABLE
SOME OF THESE PEOPLE ARE STILL
STICKING WITH MARTIN O'MALLEY IN
THE MIDDLE.
JOHN.
>> THANK YOU IT'S VERY CLOSE
BETWEEN HILLARY CLINTON AND
BERNIE SANDERS 51% 49% 65% OF
THE PRECINCTS REPORTING BUT AS
DAVID SCHUSTER POINTS OUT THERE
ARE A LOT OF COLLEGES, PRECINCTS
IN COLLEGE TOWNS WHERE THEY
DON'T HAVE A REPORT YET FROM
THOSE PRECINCTS.
AND THOSE MIGHT GO FOR BERNIE
SANDERS.
THE OTHER THING ABOUT THE
REPUBLICAN CAUCUSES IS THAT 49%
NOW, IT'S 29% FOR CRUZ, 25% FOR
TRUMP AND 21% FOR RUBIO.
VERY MUCH A THREE MAN RACE AND
STILL HALF THE VOTE TO BE
COUNTED OR THE CAUCUSES TO BE
COUNTED. WE'LL TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND
WE'LL GET BACK TO THE COVERAGE,
OUR COVERAGE OF THE IOWA
CAUCUSES, RIGHT AFTER THIS,
DON'T GO AWAY.
AWAY.
>> WELCOME BACK EVERYONE TO OUR
CONK OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE
NUMBERS, REPUBLICAN CONTEST WE
HAVE 56, 55% OF THE VOLT IN AND
IT REALLY IS A THREE MAN RACE.
WITH TED CRUZ HE'S BEEN LEADING
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH 29%
DONALD TRUMP 25% AND MARCO RUBIO
AT 21%.
LET'S LOOK AT THE DEMOCRATIC
SIDE. THERE WE HAVE HILLARY CLINTON
WHO IS 51% TO BERNIE SANDERS
49%. IT'S A TIGHT RACE, AND A TOUGH
RACE TONIGHT.
THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF
REPUBLICANS WHO WERE SPECULATING
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY ANYWAY OF
A BROKERED CONVENTION THIS
SUMMER. IT'S SOMETHING THAT HASN'T
HAPPENED IN DECADES.
ELIZABETHLIBBY CASEY IS IN WASHINGTON
WITH THAT STORY.
LIBBY. >> IT'S A LONG TIME BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN BUT ESTABLISHMENT
REPUBLICANS ARE TALKING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROKERED
CONVENTION AND THAT TALK IS
ITSELF SIGNIFICANT.
IT SHOWS DISCOMFORT IN THE PARTY
BETWEEN THE TWO MEN LIEDING THE
RACE TED CRUZ AND DONALD TRUMP
AND CONCERNS ABOUT PART UNITY.
>> MR. CHAIRMAN AND DELEGATES I
ACCEPT YOUR NOMINATION FOR
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.
>> CONVENTIONS THE SPLASHY
STAGE OF THE PARTY NOMINEES BUT
WHAT IF IT'S NOT THIS
PREDICTABLE? >> THIS IS NOT A UNIFIED
REPUBLICAN PARTY.
>> A SPLIT BETWEEN ESTABLISHMENT
REPUBLICANS AND SO-CALLED
OUTSIDERS, LIKE DONALD TRUMP HE
MEANS THE NOMINATION WILL STILL
BE IN FLUX COME THE REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION.
>> I'M CONSIDERING THAT WE'RE
ALREADY SEEING THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BROKERED CONVENTION.
>> THAT'S WHEN THE LEADER
DOESN'T HAVE THE BACKING OF THE
MAJORITY OF THE DELEGATES.
IT WAS PRESIDENT JERALD FORD.
WEPT ON TOWENT ON TO LOSE THE ELECTION.
MICHELLE BERNARD.
>> IF THE PARTY LOOKS BAD TO THE
GOVERNMENT IT RAISES YOUR
CHANCES OF LOSING.
>> EARLY PRIMARY STATES LIKE
DONALD TRUMP.
>> IN THE EVENT THAT DONALD
TRUMP HAPPENS TO WIN THE IOWA
CAUCUSES, IT IS VERY CERTAIN HE
COULD RUN THE TABLE IN THE FIRST
TWO OR THREE PRIMARY CONTESTS.
>> THAT'S NOT COMFORTABLE TO
ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS THE
NATIONAL REVIEW HAS COME OUT
AGAINST TRUMP AND GOP LEADERS
MET PRIVATELY TO TALK ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BROKERED
CONVENTION. >> THEY WOULDN'T WANT TO SHOW
BIAS TO ONE CANDIDATE OR DEFENSE
ANY ONE CANDIDATE AND THEY'VE
GOT TO SHOW OPENNESS TO THE
CHOICE OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
>> Reporter: EVEN IF AN
OUTSIDER CANDIDATE LIKE DONALD
TRUMP OR TED CRUZ WINS AN EARLY
LEAD THERE COULD BE A WITH ITER
CONVENTION FIGHT WILD CARD,
SUPERDELEGATES AT THE CONVENTION
WHO CAN VOTE HOWEVER THEY WANT.
>> THERE'S A CHANCE THEY WON'T
PLEDGE THEIR SUPPORT FOR DONALD
TRUMP AND MIGHT PLEDGE TO TED
CRUZ OR MARCO RUBIO OR CHRIS
CHRISTIE. >> WHETHER GOP LEADERSHIP WILL
AGREE OR NOT.
A NAME THAT COULD BE FLOATED AT
THE CONVENTION THAT SOMEONE IS
NOT EVEN RUNNING FOR THE
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION YET.
PICTURE A MICHAEL BLOOMBERG THE
FORM HE NEW YORK CITY MAYOR WHO
IS PONDERING ANOTHER RUN.
IT MAY COME DOWN TO WHETHER
THESE SUPERDELEGATES FIND THESE
CANDIDATES MORE APPEALING THAN
DONALD TRUMP OR TED CRUZ, UNEASE
AMONG ESTABLISHMENT RANKS OVER
WHAT THE NEXT FEW MONTHS COULD
BRING.
JOHN. >> THANK YOU LIBBY.
I WANT TO TALK ABOUT MARCO RUBIO
TONIGHT, BETTER THAN EXPECTED
RIGHT? >> BETTER, HE GOT THAT BIG
IMORMT A COUPLEENDORSEMENT A COUPLE
OF WEEKS AGO BUT TO BE SO CLOSE TO DONALD
TRUMP AND TED CRUZ, IS HUGE FOR
HIM.
IF HE MAINTAINS A 20 PLUS% MARK
TONIGHT HE'S IN GREAT SHAPE FOR
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTH
CAROLINA.
>> WHAT ELSE SURPRISED YOU ABOUT
THE NUMBERS JEANNIE?
>> I WAS GOING TO HAVE TO SAY
BEN CARSON IS A BIT OF A
SURPRISE TONIGHT IF THIS HOLDS
AT 10%.
I MEAN I AGREE WITH JOE I THINK
RUBIO IS THE STORY OF THE NIGHT
HE'S BEATING EXPECTATIONS SO
FAR, HE'S GOT CLAIM VICTORY ON
THAT POINT.
BUT YOU KNOW BEN CARSON
EVERYBODY SAID HE WAS BASICALLY
DONE AND LOOK AT HIM DPLOMG
FOURTHHIM COMING INFOURTH HERE.
HE'S NOT GOING TO WIN BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION BUT
LOOK AT HIM.
>> HOW WINNING THE RATINGS AND
THE POLLS THAT DID NOT SO FAR
WITH ALMOST 60% OF THE PRECINCTS
REPORTING HASN'T GOTTEN HIM A
WIN IN IOWA SO FAR.
>> WE KNOW THE PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF
THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT THEY HAVE A WIN REGARDLESS WHETHER
IT'S DONALD TRUMP OR TED CRUZ OR
BEN CARSON, I DON'T THINK BEN
CARSON'S DAYS ARE GOING TO
CONTINUE. YOU CAN'T COME IN FOURTH PLACE
AND BE A THIRD OF THE
ANTIESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES AND
STILL -- BUT IF YOU ADD UP THE
PERCENTAGES OF DONALD TRUMP AND
TED CRUZ AND BEN CARSON THE
THREE PEOPLE THAT THE
ESTABLISHMENT HATES YOU'RE
LOOKING AT 65% OF THE REPUBLICAN
VOTERS IN IOWA THAT ARE GOING
THAT DIRECTION.
THAT IS WHY THERE'S SUCH A
DESIRE AMONG ESTABLISHMENT THE
POLITICAL INSIDERS PERHAPS AFTER
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO RALLY AROUND
ONE OF THEIR OWN WHETHER IT'S
MARCO RUBIO JOHN KASICH, RIGHT
NOW IT'S A GREAT NIGHT FOR MARCO
RUBIO.
>> LET'S LET ALI VELSHI SPEAK
THE A REPUBLICAN INSIDER IN
IOWA ALI.
>> FORMER AID TO HILLARY
CLINTON, NOW AT GEORGETOWN A'S'S
SUIT, I ASKED HIM IS THIS AN
ANTIESTABLISHMENT THING AND HE
SAID NOT AS MUCH AS ON THE
REPUBLICAN SIDE.
WHEN DAVID SCHUSTER SAID, THERE
IS A LOT OF VOTES THAT ARE NOT
THE WAY THE ESTABLISHMENT WANT
THEM TO GO.
>> I KIND OF BRISTLE --
>> I YOU EVERY TIME AND YOU SAY
I'M WRONG.
>> THERE ISN'T A ESTABLISHMENT
PICK. I DON'T KNOW IF I AGREE THAT.
FRANKLY IT DOESN'T MATTER.
THE PEOPLE OF IOWA GET THE FIRST
CRACK AT THIS.
THEY'RE ABLE TO TOUCH PROD AND
TALK TO THESE PEOPLE
INDIVIDUALLY.
PART OF THE REASONS THESE
CARVE-OUTS EXIST IS TO TALK TO
THE CANDIDATES UP CLOSE AND
PERSONAL. I WOULD AGREE THE PARTY'S JOB
IS TO BE THERE WHEN THE PEOPLE
CHOOSE TO NOMINATE, AND A BUNCH
OF PEOPLE IN WASHINGTON MATTER,
IS SORT OF LIKE A MYTHOLOGY.
>> MO WHAT DO YOU THINK?
I MEAN SEAN AND I HAVE THIS
CONVERSATION AT EVERY DEBATE AND
SEAN TELLS ME AT EVERY DEBATE
THAT HE'S IN THE BUSINESS OF THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY THAT THE PEOPLE
CHOOSE.
DO WE MAKE TOO MUCH OF THIS
ANTIESTABLISHMENT THING?
>> LOOK, I THINK SEAN IS
ABSOLUTELY RIGHT THAT'S THE JOB
OF THE PARTY AND SEAN IS A
GOOD GOOD FRIEND AND I'M GOING
TO FEEL FOR HIM IF DONALD TRUMP
IS THE NOMINEE AND THAT'S WHO
HE'S GOT TO SUPPORT.
BUT IT'S HARD TO SAY THAT THE
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS GOERS IN IOWA
AREN'T SENDING A CLEAR MESSAGE
THAT THEY JUST HAVEN'T BEEN
THRILLED WITH THE DIRECTION THAT
WASHINGTON REPUBLICANS HAVE
TAKEN THEMODAY. NOT SEAN, NOT THE P
INFRASTRUCTURE NOT RINES
PREBIS WHO HAS DONE A HECK OF A
JOB AS THE PARTY CHAIR BUT THE
ONE BREAKING THROUGH TO THE TOP
TIER IS THE GUY RAILING DEFENSE
IT.
PEOPLE IN THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
ACTUALLY WANT TO CONTINUE LOOK
THE SAME TRAJECTORY THAT BARACK
OBAMA HAS TAKEN.
SO YOU'RE NOT SEEING THE SAME
KIND OF REPUDIATION AGAINST
WHERE THE -- WHERE SORT OF THE
WASHINGTON CENTRIC FOCUS OF THE
PARTY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMOCRATIC
SIDE AS YOU ARE ON THE
REPUBLICAN SIDE.
I THINK THAT'S JUST CLEAR -- NOT
PASSING VALUE JUDGMENT ON THAT,
THAT'S CLEAR BASED OFTEN HOW THE
RESULTS ARE COMING IN.
>> SEAN HAS SOMETHING TO SAY ON
THIS.
>> THE IDEA THAT WITH EIGHT
YEARS OF PREPARATION I SAY THIS
RESPECTFULLY, YOU HAVE A
74-YEAR-OLD SOCIALIST GADFLY
FROM VERMONT RUNNING AGAINST HER
AND IT'S NECK AND NECK HERE
HEADING INTO THE FINAL HOUR OR
SO OF TABULATING THE VOTES.
I THINK IF YOU ARE HILLARY
CLINTON YOU LOOK AT THIS AND
IT'S A BIG SIGN OF PROBLEMS IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE DEMOCRATIC
PARTY IS AND WHERE YOU ARE.
AND AS YOU GO INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE
WHERE YOU'RE DOWN DOUBLE DIGITS
THAT'S OPROBLEM.
>> MO? >> YES, NO I THINK TONIGHT IS A
HUGE WAKEUP CALL IF YOU ARE
HILLARY CLINTON. THERE'S NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.
I THINK THEY'VE COME ON STRONG
AT THE END WE'LL SEE IF IT'S
STRONG ENOUGH, THEY'VE PUT A LOT
OF TIME AND ENERGY INTO THE
ORGANIZATION ON THE GROUND AND
THAT ORGANIZATION MAY BE WHAT
SAVES HER IN IOWA TONIGHT.
AND THEY BETTER HOPE THAT
THEY'VE DONE THAT.
BUT YOU KNOW LOOK I THINK
THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY WHO WORRY THAT
THE CAMPAIGN WAS SORT OF TAKEN
FOR GRANTED FOR ALONG PERIOD OF
TIME.
YOU SAW A LOT OF SIGNS OF LIFE
HERE AT THE END AND THAT MAY
HAVE STUNTED SOME OF SANDERS
MOMENTUM IF IT PLAYS OUT THE WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S PLAYING OUT
RIGHT NOW.
BUT I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY
QUESTION THAT THIS IS A LITTLE
TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT FOR THE
HILLARY PEOPLE AND NOW THEY'VE
GOT TO GO OUT THERE AND FIGHT
FOR EVERY SINGLE VOTE IN THE
NEXT ROUND OF PRIMARIES.
>> NO KIDDING ALL RIGHT.
LET ME ASK YOU THIS, WHEN YOU
LOOK AT THE NUMBER 3 CANDIDATE
MARCO RUBIO COMING IN A LOT
CLOSER AS NUMBER 3 THANK A LOT
OF PEOPLE EXPECTED.
HIS CAMPAIGN REALLY WENT OUT OF
THE WAY TO MATCH PEOPLE'S
EXPECTATIONS.
WE THOUGHT THIS WAS A TWO MAN
RACE WITH ANOTHER TIER, NOW THIS
IS A THREE MAN RACE.
>> NO QUESTION IT'S A GOOD NIGHT
FOR SENATOR RUBIO.
THE BIG THING ABOUT IOWA IS THAT
IT'S ALL ABOUT PERCEPTION, AND I
THINK DEFEATING THOSE
PROJECTIONS YOU CAN WIN AND NOT
DO AS WELL OR YOU CAN LOSE BUT
DO BETTER THAN -- I THINK AS FAR
AS EXPECTATIONS GO THERE'S NO
QUESTION THAT HE'S DONE WELL AND
BEAT I THINK WHAT A LOT OF FOLKS
HAD WHAT HE NEEDED TO DO
TONIGHT. >> SEAN ALWAYS GOOD TO TALK TO
US THANKS FOR MAKING TIME, MO,
GOOD FOR TALKING TO US.
FURTHER ON THE IOWA PRIMARY --
IOWA CAUCUSES, THEY'RE GOING TO
THROW ME OUT FOR SAYING THAT!
>> WELCOME BACK EVERYONE WE HAVE
BREAKING NEWS, MARTIN O'MALLEY,
ACCORDING TO MANY SOURCES
INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON POST,
SUSPENDING HIS CAMPAIGN TONIGHT.
IOWA CAUCUSES, 69% OF THE VOTE
IN THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES IN,
1% OF THE VOTE.
IT'S STILL VERY TIGHT BETWEEN
HILLARY CLINTON AND BERNIE SANDERS.
ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE IT
APPEARS TO BE A THREE MAN RACE
BUT TED CRUZ IS OUT FRONT AS HE
HAS BEEN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
62% OF THE VOTE IN, DONALD TRUMP
SECOND AND MARCO RUBIO IN THIRD
AT 22%.
MICHAEL SHURE IS AT ROOSEVELT
HIGH SCHOOL IN DES MOINES WITH
MORE ON HIS CAUCUSES.
MICHAEL.
>> YES JOHN, THE CAUCUS JUST
BROKE UP.
IT WAS BERNIE SANDERS WIN TREAN
TO TEN.
AND MARTIN O'MALLEY DIDN'T GET
ANY.
AND, THAT IS WHAT MAKES THE IOWA
CAUCUSES KELLEN ZIMMER, YOU
WERE AN OEM MALLEY SUPPORTER
YOU HAVE HEARD HE IS DROPPING
OUT. >> YES I HEARD THAT.
WE GOT SOME PEOPLE TO SUPPORT
THE GOVERNOR, POLITICAL
DISCOURSE, BE THAT WITH THE
HILLARY CAMPAIGN OR THE SANDERS
CAMPAIGN, IT WAS GOOD TO EXPLAIN
WHY I APPRECIATED GOVERNOR
O'MALLEY.
>> KELLEN, TELL ME YOU WERE ONE
OF THE LAST PEOPLE TO GO OVER TO
THE OTHER SIDE.
YOU WENT TO O'MAPMALLEY TO SANDERS.
TELL ME WHAT YOU FELT QUICKLY.
>> OBVIOUSLY I WAS TORN.
THEY ARE ALL THREE GREAT
CANDIDATES. I DO REALIZE HILLARY'S
EXPERIENCE BUT I DO RECOGNIZE
THAT SENATOR SANDERS HAS REALLY
GOT A POLITICAL REVOLUTION
STARTED REALLY GOTTEN PEOPLE
ENGAGED AND I THINK THAT'S GOING
TO BE IMPORTANT ESPECIALLY IN
THE COMING YEARS TO SEE PEOPLE
IN MY GENERATION ACTIVELY
ENGAGED IN POLITICS.
IF THIS IS A START I WANT TO BE
PART OF THAT START TO WHERE WE
CAN CONTINUE THAT IN THE FUTURE
FOR ENGAGEMENT IN MY GENERATION.
>> KELLEN THANK YOU SO MUCH.
MARTIN O'MALLEY IS HAVING A
PARTY, GOING TO GO TO THAT PARTY
AND ANNOUNCING HE'S SUSPENDING
THAT CAMPAIGN.
THE DEMOCRATS TWO-PERSON DEBATE,
ANOTHER INTERESTING THING
TWO-PERSON DEBATE BETWEEN
HILLARY CLINTON AND BERNIE SANDERS THIS THURSDAY NIGHT.
A LITTLE MORE DRAMA ON THE
DEMOCRATIC SIDE.
JOHN SIEGENTHALER TO YOU.
>> MARTIN O'MALLEY GETTING 1% OF
THE VOTE IN IOWA AND IT'S A 1%
RACE BETWEEN HILLARY CLINTON AND
BERNIE SANDERS AND THE VOTERS
HAVEN'T BEEN COUNTED YET RIGHT
DAVID? >> RIGHT, IF YOU LOOK OVERALL
JOHN THERE'S SOMETHING LIKE 69%
REPORTING STATEWIDE.
IN THE CITIES OF IOWA CITY THE
HOME OF THE UNIVERSITY OF IOWA
AND ALSO AIMES IOWA, THE HOME OF
IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY, ROOSEVELT
HIGH WITH MICHAEL SHURE THEY'RE
MOSTLY YOUNGER VOTERS, HE IS
GOING TO PICK UP DELEGATES
THERE. THIS NUMBER TO BERNIE SANDERS IS
GOING TO TIGHTEN.
JOHNSON CITY, THE HOME OF STORY
COUNTY, AND AIMES THEY ARE
LAGGING BEHIND, BERNIE SANDERS
IS GOING TO PICK UP SOME MORE
DELEGATES.
WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO CLOSE THE
19 DELEGATE GAP?
I'M NOT SURE.
THIS RACE IS GOING TO TIGHTEN
AND NOT THE KIND OF SCENARIO
THAT HILLARY CLINTON HAVE EVER
WANTED.
>> I DON'T KNOW WE MAY STILL
HAVE THOSE PICTURES OF DRAKE
UNIVERSITY BUT THEY STILL WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DIVIDING AND
COUNTING THE VOTES BECAUSE THEY
HAD SO MANY STUDENTS IN THAT
CROWD. BERNIE SANDERS COULD STILL WIN
IT TONIGHT RIGHT JEANNIE?
>> I ABSOLUTELY COULD.
I'M JUST THINKING AS DAVID WAS
TALK, IF YOU GO BACK SIX MONTHS
EIGHT MOCKS A YEAR WHO WOULD
EVER HAVE THOUGHT HILLARY
CLINTON WOULD BE THIS CLOSE WITH
SOMEONE LIKE BERNIE SANDERS IN
IOWA. ABSOLUTELY SHOCKING.
HE HAS WON A TREMENDOUS CAMPAIGN
AND HE HAS TWO TO ONE SUPPORT
AMONG YOUNG PEOPLE.
YOU GO TO THESE COLLEGE
OPPORTUNITIES TO AND BERNIE
SANDERS COULD LIKELY TAKE, THAT
COULD VERY WELL TAKE IT.
>> WHAT ARE REPUBLICANS SAYING
ABOUT THIS RACE JOE?
>> WHAT THEY ARE SAYING THIS MAY
NOT BE A BELLWETHER, BUT YOU
NEVER KNOW.
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.
>> ABOUT THE DEMOCRATS THE FACT
THAT HILLARY CLINTON IS NECK IN
NECK WITH BERNIE SANDERS IN
IOWA THEY GOT TO BE CHEERING
RIGHT?
>> I THINK EVERYONE WOULD EXPECT
IT TO BE A TIGHT RACE.
BERNIE SANDERS IS DOING AS WELL
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THE QUESTION IS DOES HE HAVE
WHAT IT TAKES FOR THE LONG HAUL?
>> THERE IS A SIMILARITY BETWEEN
REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS.
YOU HAVE SOME FOLKS WHO WANT TO
BURN THE ESTABLISHMENT DOWN,
DONALD TRUMP, TED CRUZ AND TO
EXTENT BEN CARSON.
BIT BERNIE SANDERS IS THE
OUTSIDE CANDIDATE THAT THE
OUTSIDE IS WORRIED ABOUT.
HE WAS A SOCIALIST AND WASN'T
EVEN A DEMOCRAT NOW HE'S 14
POINTS BEHIND HILLARY CLINTON
AND BIG PRECINCTS TO GO.
THIS IS A SIGN THAT AGAIN THE
REJECTION ELECTION, A NUMBER OF
PUNDITS HAVE DESCRIBED THIS,
PEOPLE OUTSIDE THE SYSTEM WANT
TO SHAKE IT UP THEY ARE
RESONATING WITH BOTH THE
DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN PARTY.
>> LET'S NOT FORGET, HE IS
DEFINITELY GOING TO WIN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
IF SHE LOSES IOWA SHE'S GOING TO
HAVE LOST THE FIRST TWO.
>> I'M JUG JUST LOOKING AT JUST LOOKING
AT THE
BOARD, THE NARROWING GAP BETWEEN
HILLARY CLINTON AND BERNIE
SANDERS AND THE ANNOUNCEMENT
THAT MARTIN O'MALLEY IS
SUSPENDING HIS CAMPAIGN.
I'M MORE INTERESTED ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THAT BOARD THE
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS, HOW CLOSE THE
RACE IS BETWEEN DONALD TRUMP AND
TED CRUZ AND PLIEB MARCO MARCO RUBIO.
THIS IS BECOMING A THREE-PERSON
RACE.
KASICH AND BUSH, LUK HUCKABEE, CARLY
FIORINA NOT REGISTERING
REMEMBER THERE WAS A LOT OF THAT
MAINSTREAM REPUBLICAN
ESTABLISHMENT MONEY THAT WASN'T
BEING COMMITTED JUST YET.
I THINK A LOT OF THAT IS GOING
TO START OVER TO MARCO RUBIO.
I THINK WE'RE LOOKING TO GO TO
MICHAEL SHURE I'M NOT 100%
CORRECT ON THAT?
SORRY, DAVE LEVENTHAL IS JOINING
US AGAIN FROM THE CENTER FOR
PUBLIC INTEGRITY.
DAVE YOU AND I TALKED EARLIER
ABOUT MONEY MIGHT BE SITTING ON
THE SIDELINES TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER KNIT AFTER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AFTER SOUTH CAROLINA,
NEVADA AFTER WE START GOING BUT
TONIGHT FROM A REPUBLICAN SIDE
IS A LITTLE BIT MORE DECISIVE,
TO SEE THE STRENGTH OF
PERFORMANCE BY MARCO RUBIO AND
THE ABSENCE OF STRENGTH BY ANY
OF THE OTHER MORE MAINSTREAM
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES.
>> ALI THERE IS STILL SOME MONEY
SITTING ON THE SIDE, SOME REALLY
BIG NAMES IN THE KOCH BROTHERS
NETWORKS, WHO HAVE NOT MADE A
FIRM COMMITMENT TO A SINGLE
CANDIDATE. IF YOU ARE MARCO RUBIO YOU'RE
SITTING HERE NOT EVEN VERY
EXCITED EVEN ECSTATIC ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL IN IOWA BUT YOU'RE
ALSO COUNTING DOLLARS YOU DON'T
HAVE RIGHT NOW BUT YOU MAY HAVE
NEXT WEEK OR NEXT MONTH BECAUSE
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO GET ON BOARD
WITH YOU NOW THAT YOU'VE HAD
SUCCESS AND THE POLLS HAVE BEEN
TAKEN FOR THE FIRST TIME.
>> AND WE'VE ACTUALLY SEEN THAT
HAPPEN PARTICULARLY AFTER
DEBATES RIGHT?
A LOT OF THE SUPERPAC MONEY WAS
SITTING TON SIDELINES BETWEEN
JEB BUSH AND MARCO RUBIO AND
EVERY TIME JEB BUSH SEEMED TO
UNDERPERFORM IN A DEBATE
COURTESY OF DONALD TRUMP THEN
MORE WOULD GO TO MARCO RUBIO
BUT JEB BUSH STILL LEADS THAT
PAC IN TERMS OF FUNDRAISING.
>> HE DOES ALI AND THAT 58
MILLION RIGHT TO RISE,
SUPPORTING JEB BUSH THAT WAS
SITTING IN AT THE END OF 2015,
THAT MAY HAVE DWINDLED A LITTLE
BIT PUT THEY STILL HAVE TENS OF
MILLIONS TO BRING TO BEAR.
THE QUESTION IS WHERE ARE THEY
GOING TO USE THAT FOR?
WHERE IS JEB BUSH EVEN GOING TO
BE IN A WEEK?
EVEN IN THE AGE OF BIG MONEY AN
POLITICS AND SUPERPACS AND
ORGANIZATIONS, THAT CAN SPEND
UNLIMITED AMOUNTS OF MONEY ON A
CANDIDATE, YOU STILL HAVE A
CANDIDATE THAT NEEDS TO RESONATE
WITH PEOPLE AND JEB BUSH DOESN'T
SEEM TO BE THAT CANDIDATE.
ABSENT SOMETHING TOTALLY
UNEXPECTED HAPPENING IN THE NEXT
FEW WEEKS.
>> WHY ARE THESE CANDIDATES THAT
AREN'T RESONATING WHY DO THEY
STAY IN THE RACE, RICK SANTORUM
IS A GOOD EXAMPLE HE HAS
BACKERS, FINANCIAL BACKERS HIS
FORTUNES HAVE NOT HAD A DIRECT
RELATIONSHIP TO THE ABILITY TO
FINANCE HIS CAMPAIGN.
>> SUPERPACS HAVE LOUD MORE
CANDIDATES TO GET INTO A RACE,
EVEN FOUR YEARS AGO TO SOME
EXTENT, DUETS THEM IN THE RACE
EARLIER AND ALSO KEEPS THEM IN
THE RACE LONGER.
YOU MAY SEE THAT WITH SOME OF
THE CANDIDATES SURE, ONE TWO
MAY DROP OUT TONIGHT, OF COURSE
MARTIN O'MALLEY IT APPEARS IS
GOING TO BE DROPPING OUT AS
WELL. BUT YOU MAY HAVE HAD IS THE
CANDIDATES WHO WOULD ABSOLUTELY
HAVE DROPPED OUT AFTER IOWA
AFTER UNDERPERFORMING AND THAT
MAY BE IT, THEY ARE GOING TO
STICK AROUND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE
ACKNOWLEDGE SOUTH CAROLINA, EVEN
IF THEIR POLL NUMBERS ARE A
WHOLE LOT OF NOWHERE.
>> SUPERTUESDAY ABOUT THE MIDDLE
OF MARCH IT MAY BE THAT LONG
BEFORE WE HAVE GOT SOME FINALITY
OF THE IT, DAVE LEVENTHAL, THANK
YOU FOR JOINING US.
BACK TO YOU.
>> JACK KINGSMAN, SERVED 22
YEARS IN THE HOUSE IN
WASHINGTON NOW YOU WERE ON THE
TELEPHONE WITH THE CRUZ
CAMPAIGN WHAT CAN YOU TELL US?
>> THEY'RE FEELING REALLY GOOD.
THEIR NUMBERS HAVE BEEN SOLID
ALL NIGHT LONG.
THEY HAVE COME OUT EARLY
MAINTAINED THE FIRST PLACE SLOT,
THEIR NUMBERS HAVE FLUCTUATED
TWO TO THREE TO 4% AHEAD OF
TRUMP'S BUT MARCO RUBIO IS DOING
WELL TOO.
THE 99 COUNTIES, THE 20,000
VOLUNTEERS HAVE REALLY PAID OFF
FOR TED CRUZ.
AND YOU KNOW ON THE SUBJECT OF
MONEY THE INTERESTING THING IS,
HE'S LEAVING IOWA WITH SOMETHING
LIKE $19 MILLION.
HE HAS AN ENORMOUS GRASS ROOTS
FUNDRAISING MACHINE ALL OVER
THE COUNTRY AND HIS NUMBERS ARE
GOING TO -- HIS FINANCIAL
NUMBERS OF NUMBERS ARE GOING TO
GO UP AS WELL, CERTAINLY AS WILL
RUBIO'S AND CRUZ -- I MEAN
CONSUME, CARSON'S AND YOU KNOW
ANYBODY IN THE TOP TIER IS GOING
TO DO WELL FINANCIALLY TONIGHT.
THE REALITY IS, I THINK THIS IS
TED CRUZ'S NIGHT THEY'RE
FEELING VERY, VERY GOOD.
I UNDERSTOOD FROM THEM THERE ARE
BEEN A NUMBER OF PEOPLE TO CALL
IT FOR HIM BUT NOTHING
OFFICIAL, THEY'RE BEING
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC.
>> 66% OF THE PRECINCTS IN.
I WANTED TO TALK, DO YOU THINK
IT'S BECAUSE TED CRUZ HAD A
BETTER ORGANIZATION THAN DONALD
TRUMP? >> I THINK IT IS. I THINK THAT ON THE GROUND IN
IOWA THESE ARE PEOPLE THAT ARE
USED TO MEETING PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES AND PRESIDENTS
RUNNING FOR REELECTION AND SO
THEY'RE NOT ORDINARY PEOPLE THEY
ARE VERY ACTIVIST.
I TALKED ALSO TO CONGRESSMAN
AUSTIN SCOTT WHO IS IN THE RUBIO
CAMP AND HE SENT ME A VIDEO OF
ONE OF THE CAUCUSES IN A SCHOOL
GYMNASIUM.
A CROWDED, WOULD YOU HAVE
THOUGHT IT WAS A STATE PLAYOFF
GAME. THE CROWD THE TOWN POPULATION
WAS 10,000 PEOPLE.
THE CROWD WAS STANDING ROOM
ONLY NEVER SAW ANYTHING LIKE
IT NOT A POLITICAL AFFAIR YET
THAT'S THE WAY IOWANS ARE.
AS THIS GETS SETTLED VERY, VERY
VIGOROUS NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS
SHORT WEEK COMING UP FAWN FOR
THE TOP FIVE CANDIDATES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THEN THEY'RE ALL
GOING TO ROLL ON TO SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NEVADA AND
SUPERTUESDAY.
SO THIS IS GOING TO BE AN AFFAIR
I THINK THAT'S GOING TO GO ON
EASILY NO. APRIL.
>> LET'S JUST TALK ABOUT THE
ISSUE -- EASILY UNTIL APRIL.
>> THE ISSUE ALI BROUGHT UP
EARLIER, SECOND THIRD AND FOURTH
TIER OF CANDIDATES WHO REALLY
DIDN'T EVEN REGISTER TONIGHT
YOU KNOW, HOW LONG CAN YOU STAY
IN A RACE WHEN YOU GET 1% OF 2%
OF THE VOTE?
>> WELL, AS LONG AS THEY PAY
THEIR QUALIFYING FEE IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTH CAROLINA,
THEIR NAME'S GOING TO BE ON THE
BALLOT SO THEY MIGHT AS WELL
MAKE A FEW MODEST VISITS.
AND I THINK THE WAY CAUCUS
VOTERS TEND TO BE, YOU CAN
ALWAYS FIND A CROWD THAT WILL
LISTEN TO YOU. YOU CAN ALWAYS I THINK IN THIS
DAY OF SOCIAL MEDIA RUN A
CAMPAIGN SOMEWHAT EFFECTIVELY
BUT CERTAINLY CHEAPLY.
AND HANG IN THERE.
AND I HATE TO SAY IT BUT I THINK
SOME OF THIS IS ABOUT BOOK DEALS
AND SOME OF THIS IS ABOUT
GETTING YOUR NAME OUT THERE.
I THINK THAT IF YOU LOOK AT
SOMEBODY LIKE SCOTT WALKER OR
BOBBY JINDAL OR LINDSAY GRAHAM
THEY FIGURED THEY HAD BETTER
THINGS TO DO WITH THEIR TIME
THAN CONTINUE ON THIS MARATHON.
SO SOME OF THIS APPARENTLY SOME
PEOPLE LIKE IT AND SOME PEOPLE
CAN SEE THAT IT'S FUTILE AND
THEN THEY GO BACK TO OTHER
THINGS IN THEIR LIVES.
>> ALL RIGHT JACK THANK YOU VERY
MUCH, YOU'VE GONE ON TO OTHER
THINGS.
>> YES. >> LET ME JUST MENTION THAT
DONALD TRUMP IS GETTING READY TO
SPEAK AT LEAST THERE ARE
SUPPORTERS THERE WE'RE
EXPECTING HIM TO SPEAK IN A
LITTLE WHILE AND HILLARY CLINTON
HAS GATHERED A GROUP OF
SUPPORTERS AS WELL.
SHE'S EXPECTED TO SPEAK AS IS
TED CRUZ.
AND WE WILL HEAR EVENTUALLY
TONIGHT FROM ALL THREE OF THEM.
NOW ONCE THE DUST IS SETTLED
FROM TONIGHT'S IOWA CAUCUSES THE
FOCUS OF THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL
CAMPAIGN SHIFTS TO NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IT.
IT'S THE FIRST PRIMARY VOTE OF
THE SEASON JUST OVER A WEEK
AWAY.
TUESDAY FEBRUARY 9th.
LISA STARK IS IN MANCHESTER NEW
HAMPSHIRE NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH
THAT.
LISA. >> THE CANDIDATES WILL BE
RUSHING OVER AFTER THE IOWA
CAUCUSES IS DONE.
BUT YOU AND I ARE TALK ABOUT THE
CANDIDATES WHO HARDLY
REGISTERED KASICH, CHRISTIE,
BUSH ALREADY HERE IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE CAMPAIGNING.
THEY ARE HOPING NEW HAMPSHIRE
WILL RAISE THEM OUT OF THAT
SECOND AND THIRD TIER.
THEY ARE GAMBLING ON THE VOTERS
HERE IN THE GRANITE STATE.
OHIO GOVERNOR JOHN KASICH IS THE
NUMBER ONE CANDIDATE WHO OPTED
OUT OF IOWA ON CAUCUS DAY.
HOPING TO SOLIDIFY HIS POLITICAL
FUTURE BY WINNING OVER VOTERS
HERE. >> HOW IMPORTANT IS YOUR
CAMPAIGN HERE?
>> VERY, VERY IMPORTANT IF I
DON'T DO WELL I'LL CRY BUT I'LL
GET OVER IT.
>> HE HAS A POSITIVE VISION FOR
AMERICA HE SAYS AND HE URGED
OTHERS TO STOP THE NEGATIVE ADS.
>> PUT YOUR BEST ON THE AIR SO
THAT'S WHAT I THINK WE OUGHT TO
DO.
>> TWO OF HIS REPUBLICAN
OPPONENTS CHRIS CHRISTIE AND JEB
BUSH BEGAN THEIR DAY IN IOWA BUT
THEN HEADED STREET TO NEW
HAMPSHIRE. ALL THREE AS WELL AS SENATOR
MARCO RUBIO ARE TRYING TO BEAT
EXPECTATIONS TO PROPEL THEM
ONWARD.
THE FOUR ARE LOCKED IN A RACE TO
BECOME THE TOP CHOICE OF THE GOP
ESTABLISHMENT.
SOMEONE TO COUNTER CONSERVATIVE
TED CRUZ AND FRONT RUNNER DONALD
TRUMP.
>> I MEAN FOR JOHN KASICH, FOR
CHRIS CHRISTIE, FOR JEB BUSH,
SECOND PLACE IS VERY IMPORTANT
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
FOR ANY OF THEM TO SPEND ALL
THAT TIME AND NOT GET AT LEAST A
SECOND PLACE WOULD BE
DEVASTATING FOR THEIR CAMPAIGNS.
>> THIS TIME AROUND KASICH AND
CHRISTIE HAVE LOGGED MORE MILES
HERE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER
CANDIDATES.
EACH GLAD-HANDING AT MORE THAN
150 STOPS WELL SURPASSING THE
ROUGHLY 35 TREKS TRUMP HAS MADE
TO WOO VOTERS.
THE NEW YORK BILLIONAIRE HAS
DONE SO WITH SUPER-SIZED
RALLIES.
UP-ENDING THE TRADITION NEW
HAMPSHIRE STYLE OF SMALL
GATHERINGS.
TRUMP HAS EXCEPT FOR ONE TIME
SKIPPED THE USUAL DINERS DINERS
CIRCUIT. THESE FEISTY FIVE HAD TRUMP ON
THEIR MINDS.
>> HONEST TO GOD I REALLY
BELIEVE THAT TRUMP --
>> PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES TO SAY SOMETHING LIKE
BOMB THE HELL OUT OF 'EM.
GO FOR IT!
>> OR HE'LL PICK UP HIS MARBLES
AND GO HOME.
>> IT'S MY BALL, I'M GOING HOME.
>> HE PROBABLY HAS WHAT IT TAKES
TO CHANGE THINGS.
>> ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE,
SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS FROM
NEIGHBORING VERMONT IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE THE STATE THAT HILLARY
CLINTON CAPTURED EIGHT YEARS AGO
DURING HER FIRST PRESIDENTIAL
BID.
>> MORE INDEPENDENT VOTERS, SOME
380,000 VOTERS CONSIDER
THEMSELVES INDEPENDENTS.
AND IN THIS OPEN PRIMARY THEY
ARE ALLOWED TO VOTE FOR ANY
CANDIDATE IN ANY PARTY.
>> ARE THE UNDECLARED VOTERS A
WILD CARD OAR NOT?
>> THEY ARE A WILD CARD BUT NOT
AN ACE.
A LOT OF TIMES YOU READ WELL,
THIS CANDIDATE IS GOING TO RIDE
UNDECLARED VOTERS TO VICTORY.
IN PRACTICE IT'S TOUGH TO DO
THAT BECAUSE THERE AREN'T THAT
MANY WHO ARE THESE CROSSOVER
VOTERS EVERYONE THINKS THEY ARE.
>> MANY INDEPENDENTS INCLUDING
MOST OF THESE WOMEN ARE STILL
PERUSING THE POLITICAL MENU.
>> I KIND OF WAIT UNTIL ALMOST
THE DAY OF THE PRIMARY AS MOST
OF THE PEOPLE DO IN THIS STATE
THEY WAIT AND WAIT AND DO IT AT
THE LAST MINUTE.
>> IT'S INTERESTING WE WERE AT A
JEB BUSH EVENT TONIGHT QUITE A
ROUSING CROWD ACTUALLY.
A LOT OF PEOPLE THERE SAID THEY
STILL HADN'T MADE UP THEIR MIND.
SO THE VOTERS SAY THEY TAKE
THEIR RESPONSIBILITY, THEIR
VOTING RESPONSIBILITY VERY
SERIOUSLY. THIS IS THE FIRST PRIMARY.
IT IS DIFFERENT THAN A CAUCUS,
JOHN SO ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY IOWA
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT THE VOTERS
HERE WILL HAVE THEIR SAY TOO.
AND AS YOU KNOW NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS A WAY OF WINNOWING DOWN THE
FIELD AND ALSO PROPELLING OTHER
CANDIDATES ONWARD.
THAT'S WHAT THESE CANDIDATES ARE
HOPING FOR THAT THEY'LL GET THAT
BOOST THAT THEY OBVIOUSLY NEED
AFTER THE RESULTS IN IOWA.
>> LISA THANK YOU VERY MUCH. HOLD THE THOUGHT ABOUT NEW
HAMPSHIRE FOR A SECOND WHILE WE
LOOK AT THE VOTE TOTALS.
AND HERE WE HAVE THE
REPUBLICANS. WE NOW HAVE 83% OF THE PRECINCTS
REPORTING AND TED CRUZ CONTINUES
HIS LEAD OVER DONALD TRUMP AND
MARCO RUBIO.
AND YOU SAY DAVID, THIS IS A
RECORD? >> YEAH, SO THE PREVIOUS RECORD
FOR REPUBLICANS WAS 2012,
121,000. IF YOU LOOK AT ALL OF THE VOTE
TOTALS FOR THE REPUBLICANS YOU
ARE ALREADY AT 145,000 WITH THE
PROJECTION BEING IT IS GOING TO
END UP SOMEWHERE 150,000 TO
160,000 PARTICIPATING IN THE
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS. THE REASON THIS IS SO
SIGNIFICANT IS BECAUSE THE TED
CRUZ CAMPAIGN HAD SUGGESTED THAT
IF THE NUMBER WAS AROUND 150,000
THEY ARE IN TROUBLE, DONALD
TRUMP WOULD WIN.
TED CRUZ HAS PROVED THAT HIS
ORGANIZATION CAN HANDLE A HIGH
TURNOUT AND TURN THEM INTO VOTE.
THAT IS A BIG SURPRISE.
>> AND 10% FOR BEN CARSON AS
WELL. NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE A LOT OF
PEOPLE ARE HEADING AS WE SPEAK
ALI VELSHI IS OUT IN IOWA FOR
THAT.
ALI.
>> PAUL, AN OLD FRIEND OF MINE,
FOR YEARS I'VE RELIED ON FOR
POLITICAL ANALYSIS PAUL GOOD TO
SEE YOU. THE MODERATE GOVERNORS KASICH,
BUSH CHRISTIE, NOT EVEN HERE IN
IOWA ON CAUCUS DAY.
THEY'RE ALL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
WHY? >> PRETTY TELLING ISN'T IT ALI
WHAT IS THE TOP PRIORITY FOR
THOSE THREE GOVERNORS YEAH IT'S
ALL ABOUT RIGHT HERE IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
JOHN KASICH CAME BACK TO NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON SATURDAY, WAS THERE
FOR THE DEBATE ON THURSDAY, CAME
RIGHT BACK.
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME DEGREE FOR
CHRIS CHRISTIE AND JEB BUSH.
THE REPUBLICAN ARE GROUP IN
IOWA PRETTY CONSERVATIVE, AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE MORE THEIR CUP OF
TEA.
ALL THREE OF THEM SPENDING A LOT
OF TIME THERE BUT IOWA DOESN'T
MATTER MUCH FOR THEM, HERE IT'S
DO OR DIE IN THE GRANITE STATE
FOR THOSE THREE GUYS.
>> BUSH AND KASICH ACTUALLY PUT
A LOT OF TIME INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE, I'M SORRY KASICH AND
CHRISTIE HAVE. WHAT DOES IT LOOK BETWEEN BUSH
KASICH AND CHRISTIE IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE?
>> YOU SEE DONALD TRUMP THE
CLEAR FRONT RUNNER LEAPS AND
BOUNDS AHEAD.
I GUESS THE BATTLE IS FOR
SECOND THIRD AND FOURTH PLACE.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO PLUS THE
THREE GOVERNORS ALL BATTLING,
FIVE TO SIX PERCENTAGE POINTS, A
FEARS BATTLE NOW FOR SECOND
THIRD AND EVEN FOURTH PLACE.
WE'LL SEE HOW MANY TICKETS THERE
ARE OUT OF NEW HAMPSHIRE TO
CONTINUE TO SOUTH CAROLINA, ALI.
>> PAUL HERE IN IOWA THE
REPUBLICANS GO AND CAUCUS WITH
REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS CAUCUS
WITH DEMOCRATS.
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE INDEPENDENTS
CAN GO AND VOTE IN WHICH EVER
PRIMARY THEY WANT TO VOTE FOR.
AND OFTEN INDEPENDENTS ARE GOING
TO GO WHERE THEY HAVE THE MOST
IMPACT. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR HOW THE
INDEPENDENTS ARE GOING TO BEHAVE
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE?
>> INDEPENDENTS RULE THE ROOST
HERE. THEY ARE FREE GO EITHER WAY.
THEY MAKE UP ABOUT 40% OF THE
ELECTORATE HERE IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THAT'S A PRETTY SIZABLE AMOUNT.
THEY LIKE TO GO WHERE THE ACTION
IS ALI.
THEY WANT THEIR VOTE TO MATTER.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE LATEST POLLS
ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE THAT HAS
GONE UP IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
BERNIE SANDERS, IF YOU AVERAGE
ALL THESE POLLS TOGETHER, IF THE
ACTION IS ON THE REPUBLICAN
SIDE THE INDIES COULD GO THAT
WAY.
I SPOKE AN INTERVIEW WITH JONG
KASICH DAY TODAY TOP ADVISORS,
THINK THAT IF THEY COME OUT FOR
KASICH IT WILL HELP THEIR
CAMPAIGN.
ALI. >> THANKS FOR BEING WITH US.
>> ALI THANK YOU. >> BACK IN NEW YORK I'M JOINED
BY JEANNIE AND JOE AND DAVID.
IS THIS A BIGGER WIN FOR TED
CRUZ THAN IT IS A BIG LOSS FOR
DONALD TRUMP JEANNIE?
>> I THINK IT IS A BIG WIN FOR
TED CRUZ, IT WAS A MUST WIN FOR
TED CRUZ, IOWA HE VISITED EVERY
COUNTY, IT WAS A MUST WIN AND IT
LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT HE IS GOING TO WIN OUT.
BUT I THINK REAL STORY IS MARCO
RUBIO NECK AND NECK NOW WITH
DONALD TRUMP AND WITHIN A
PERCENTAGE POINT.
IF HE COULD EVEN HIM OR BEAT
HIM, DONALD TRUMP ENDED UP A
CLOSE SECOND OR THIRD NO ONE
EXPECTED THAT, THE DES MOINES
REGISTER HAD HIM WINNING.
>> WHAT HAPPENS TO DONALD TRUMP
JOE? >> YOU CANNOT DISCOUNT THE
IMPORTANCE OF GROUND GAME,
HAVING PEOPLE ON THE GROUND TO
MAKE SURE YOUR FOLKS COME OUT TO
CAUCUS ON CAUCUS NIGHT.
TED CRUZ DID THAT IN A HUGE WAY.
HE HAD A NUMBER OF VOLUNTEERS
AND THE PHONE BANK THAT WAS JUST
UNSTOPPABLE AND THAT'S REALLY
HELPED HIM A GREAT DEAL TONIGHT.
>> DAVID WE JUST SAW SOME OF THE
POLL NUMBERS FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE
AWITH REGARD TO REPUBLICANS.
DONALD TRUMP IS WAY OUT IN FRONT
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
SO DOES THIS KNOCK HIM DOWN, A
BIT, MOVING INTO THAT RACE OR
NOT? >> WELL IT MIGHT.
BECAUSE THERE'S NOW SOME
MOMENTUM FOR TED CRUZ, THERE ARE
A LOT OF PEOPLE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
WHO ARE NOW GOING TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT TED CRUZ WHO
HAVEN'T HEARD SO MUCH ABOUT IT.
NOW THOSE IN IOWA, THERE ARE A
LOT OF REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS
WHO WANT TO GO WITH THE WINNER.
IF SOMEBODY IS JUST WON THE IOWA
CAUCUSES THEY'RE GOING TO GET A
HEARING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THE CHALLENGER, MARCO RUBIO, JEB
BUSH OR CHRIS CHRISTIE OR JOHN
KASICH AGAIN THE VOTERS ARE
SPLITTING ABOUT 65-35
ANTIESTABLISHMENT TO
ESTABLISHMENT. THERE'S GOING TO BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN MARCO RUBIO AND KASICH
AND CHRISTIE AND BUSH AS TO WHO
IS GOING TO BE THE ALTERNATIVE
TO DONALD TRUMP AND TED CRUZ,
UNTIL THAT BATTLE IS SORTED OUT
I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE
DONALD TRUMP AND TED CRUZ
ROLLING UP THE KIND OF NUMBERS
THEY HAVE TODAY IN IOWA.
>> WE HAVE 84% OF THE VOTE IN
FOR THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS GOERS.
STILL SOME TIME HERE BUT CLEARLY
TED CRUZ HAS LED THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
>> HE HAS LED THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND I THINK WHAT'S GOING
TO BE FASCINATING IS HOW DONALD
TRUMP SPECIFIC SPINS THIS.
AS YOU SAID HE IS GOING TO COME
OUT AND SPEAK.
HOW SOMEONE'S CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN
PREF ASSEDPREFACED WITH THE FACT THAT
HE
WILL BE THE WINNER, TONIGHT HE
HAS TURNED OUT THE OPPOSITE.
>> EVERY TIME I SEE I'M AHEAD
OF THE POLLS I'M AHEAD OF THE
POLLS, EVERY TIME I COME ON TV
IT TRANSLATES.
>> HE'S THE MASTER SPIN-MAN, HE
WITH WILL SAY NEW HAMPSHIRE IS
OUR REAL TEST AND WE'LL WIN BY A
BIG MARGIN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
>> WE'RE WAITING FOR TED CRUZ TO
SEEK, HILLARY CLINTON TO SPEAK.
WE'LL HAVE MUCH MORE FROM OUR
IOWA CAUCUSES RIGHT AFTER THIS,
DON'T GO AWAY.
that's going on, not just in this country
but around the world.
>> What, as if there were
no cameras here,
would be the best solution?
>> This goes to the heart of
the argument. >> To tell you the stories
that others won't cover.
How big do you see
this getting?
Getting the news from
the people who are
affected. >> People need to demand
reform...
>> We're here to provide
the analysis...
the context... and the reporting that allows
you to make sense
of your world.
>> ALI VELSHI ON TARGET.
>> AND WELCOME BACK EVERYONE. WE THOUSAND HAVE ASSOCIATE ED
PRESS CALLING THE RACE FOR TED
CRUZ TONIGHT A BIG WIN IN IOWA,
IN THE IOWA CAUCUSES FOR SENATOR
TED CRUZ, OVER DONALD TRUMP.
AND MARCO RUBIO TRUMP AND RUBIO
NECK AND NECK FOR SECOND PLACE.
ALI VELSHI IS IN DES MOINES.
I MIGHT MENTION ALI THAT WE'VE
JUST GOTTEN WORD THAT GOVERNOR
HUCKABEE HAS SUSPENDED HIS
CAMPAIGN FOR PRESIDENT AS WELL.
>> GENTLEMEN JUST SAW THAT TWEET
FROM HIM.
YOU KNOW I TALKED TO HIM ABOUT A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO OR TWO WEEKS
AGO AND HE SAID HE THOUGHT THERE
WOULD BE MORE SUPPORT FOR HIM
HERE, HE WON THE IOWA CAUCUSES
IN 2008, HE SAID IF IT DIDN'T
WORK HE WOULD HAVE TO THINK
ABOUT IT.
WE HAVE BEN CARSON RETHINKING
AND I KEEP LOOKING AT HOW CLOSE
MARCO RUBIO IS TO DONALD TRUMP
RIGHT NOW THE NUMBERS I'VE GOT
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE ONES
YOU'VE GOT RUBIO AT 22.9% AND
TRUMP 24.5%.
THAT WAS A BIT OF A TAKE AWAY,
THAT MARCO RUBIO HAD BEEN
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS ABOUT
DOING WELCOMING IN THIRD BUT HE
DIDN'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT HOW
WELL HE WAS DOING.
AS SEAN SPICER SAID A LITTLE
EARLIER YOU CAN LOSE AND DO
WELL, IF YOU DO BETTER THAN
PEOPLE THOUGHT OR YOU CAN LOSE
AND DO PEERL IF YOU DO DIFFERENT
THAN SOME PEOPLE THOUGHT.
ALL YOU HEAR FROM DONALD TRUMP
IS HE IS WINNING AND ON TOP AND
TERRIFIC RATINGS.
DONALD TRUMP BROKE OUT OF THAT
SECOND PLACE SPOT, ON THE
DEMOCRATIC SIDE, SAME STORY
BERNIE SANDERS HASN'T BEEN ABLE
TO BREAK INTO THE NUMBER ONE
SPOT BUT BOY HE LAST KEPT THAT
GAP NARROW SOMETIMES WITHIN 1
PERCENTAGE OPPONENT.
WE KNOW HE IS GOING TO INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE VERY VERY STRONG, THE
LATEST POLLS SAYING 18% AHEAD OF
HILLARY CLINTON AND NO MARTIN
O'MALLEY ANYMORE.
VERY INTERESTING NIGHT MORE
INTERESTING THAN PEOPLE THOUGHT
IT WOULD BE.
THE FINAL TAKE AWAY JOHN IS
THOSE MAINSTREAM ESTABLISHMENT
GOVERNORS WHO HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE
TO PENETRATE ANYTHING, CHRIS
CHRISTIE JOHN KASICH AND JEB
BUSH NOT DOING WELL.
>> I WANT TO GO BACK TO JOHN
KINGSTON IN WASHINGTON.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR TED
CRUZ? >> JOHN WHAT IT MEANS IS HE'S
GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF MOMENTUM
GOING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE.
EVEN IF HE'S NOT IN THE TOP SLOT
THERE, HE'S GOT THE MONEY TO
SURVIVE AND LIVE ANOTHER DAY.
THEY ALREADY PLANNED $19 MILLION
IN THE BANK WHICH IS MORE THAN
ANY OTHER CANDIDATE SO HE'S
GOING TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE
FINANCIALLY.
HOW DO YOU RUN A CAMPAIGN FOR
SUPER-TUESDAY IN THE SOUTH IN
MENZIES AND IN MASSACHUSETTS I
THINK HE'SMINNESOTA AND IN MASSACHUSETTS.
A DOESN'T NIGHT FOR CARSON.
A HORRIBLE NIGHT AS YOU POINTED
OUT TO THE GOVERNORS, NEW
HAMPSHIRE IS GOING TO BE
IMPORTANT, BUT I REALLY THINK
IT'S GOING TO BE OVERSHADOWED BY
SOUTH CAROLINA, NEVADA AND
SUPERTUESDAY.
>> ALL RIGHT DAVID AS WE AWAIT
BOTH HILLARY CLINTON AND DONALD
TRUMP AND IT SHOULD BE TED CRUZ
IN JUST A LITTLE WHILE MAYBE WE
CAN JUST GIVE US YOUR SENSE OF
WHAT UNFOLDED TONIGHT IN IOWA.
>> WELL, AND AS JOE POINTED OUT
ORGANIZATION IS CRUCIAL.
IT'S GOING TO BE CRUCIAL IF
HILLARY CLINTON EKES OUT A WIN
OVER BERNIE SANDERS.
VISITED 99 COUNTIES, HAD A
SUPERIOR ORGANIZATION ON THE
REPUBLICAN SIDE, THAT MAKES A
BIG DIFFERENCE.
BUT IT'S INTERESTING TO HEAR
CONGRESSMAN KINGSTON TALK ABOUT
ORGANIZATION, THERE ARE OTHER
CANDIDATES WHO IGNORED IOWA,
EXPHAIB HE SETS UPJOHN McCAIN, SETTING
UP A BIG
BATTLE IN SOUTH CAROLINA.
YOU WIN IOWA MAYBE YOU'RE NOT
COMPETITIVE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE OR
GET BEATEN BY DOUBLE DIGITS BUT
YOU SET UP YOUR FIRE WALL IN THE
SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTH
TED CRUZ IS SENDING A SIGNAL TO
THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE EVANGELICAL VOTE IS NOT AS
IMPORTANT THERE AS IT IS IN THE
SOUTH IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND IN
IOWA. AND SO THAT'S WHY SOME OF THE
MODERATE GOVERNORS FEEL THEY MAY
HAVE A CHANCE TO COME IN IN THAT
SECOND TIER.
IT'S GOING TO BE HARD BECAUSE
THE MOMENTUM COMING OUT OF IOWA
IS REALLY GOING TO BE THERE FOR
DONALD TRUMP AND TED CRUZ AND
NOW FOR MARCO RUBIO.
MARCO RUBIO GOT THAT BIG
ENDORSEMENT IN IOWA.
CHRISTIE GOT THE ENDORSEMENT IN
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MARCO RUBIO IS
GOING TO BE VERY VERY STRONG
HEADING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE.
>> JEANNIE, HILLARY CLINTON LED
AND LED BUT IT COULD GO EITHER
WAY. HOW DOES SHE COME OUT OF THIS
WITH THIS CLOSE?
>> WITHIN SEVEN DELEGATES
THAT'S INCREDIBLY CLOSE.
WHAT SHE'S GOT TO DO IS HOPE
THAT SHE HANGS ONTO THAT LEAD,
SHE'S GOT TO DECLARE A BIG
VICTORY OUT OF TONIGHT TRY MOVE
TO FLF NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE SHE'S
LIKELY TO LOSE.
>> WE'RE ABOUT TO HEAR FROM
MARCO RUBIO.
>> THANK YOU, THANK YOU.
[♪ SINGING ♪ ] >> THANK YOU, THANK YOU.
SO -- SO THIS IS THE MOMENT THEY
SAID WOULD NEVER LAP!
HAPPEN.
FOR MONTHS THEY TOLD US WE HAD
NO CHANCE.
FOR MONTHS THEY TOLD US BECAUSE
WE OFFERED TOO MUCH OPTIMISM IN
A TIME OF ANGER WE HAD NO
CHANCE. FOR MONTHS THEY TOLD US BECAUSE
WE DIDN'T HAVE THE RIGHT
ENDORSEMENTS OR THE RIGHT
POLITICAL CONNECTIONS WE HAD NO
CHANCE. THEY TOLD ME WE HAVE NO CHANCE
BECAUSE MY HAIR WAS NOT GRAY
ENOUGH AND MY BOOTS WERE TOO
HIGH.
THEY TOLD ME I NEEDED TO WAIT MY
TURN THAT I NEEDED TO WAIT IN
LINE. [CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> BUT TONIGHT TONIGHT, HERE IN
IOWA THE PEOPLE OF THIS GREAT
STATE HAVE SENT A VERY CLEAR
MESSAGE: AFTER SEVEN YEARS OF
BARACK OBAMA WE ARE NOT WAITING
ANY LONGER TO TAKE OUR COUNTRY
BACK!
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> THIS IS NOT A TIME FOR
WAITING. FOR EVERYTHING THAT MAKES THIS
NATION GREAT NOW HANGS IN THE
BALANCE.
THIS IS A TIME WHEN WE NEED A
PRESIDENT THAT WILL TRULY
PRESERVE AND PROTECT AND DEFEND
THE CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED
STATES. NOT ONE THAT UNDERMINES, ATTACKS
AND IGNORES THE CONSTITUTION OF
THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS THE TIME FOR A PRESIDENT
WHO WILL DEFEND OUR SECOND
AMENDMENT RIGHTS.
NOT A PRESIDENT WHO UNDERMINES
THEM.
THIS IS THE TIME FOR A PRESIDENT
THAT WILL REBUILD THE U.S.
MILITARY BECAUSE THE WORLD IS A
SAFER AND A BETTER PLACE, WHEN
THE UNITED STATES HAS THE MOST
POWERFUL MILITARY IN THE WORLD.
THIS IS NOT ORDINARY ELECTION.
2016 IS NOT JUST A CHOICE
BETWEEN TWO POLITICAL PARTIES.
2016 IS A REFERENDUM.
IT IS A REFERENDUM ON OUR
IDENTITY AS A NATION, AND AS A
PEOPLE.
IN AMERICA THERE ARE ONLY TWO
WAYS FORWARD FOR US NOW: WE CAN
EITHER BE GREATER THAN WE HAVE
EVER BEEN, OR WE CAN BE A GREAT
NATION IN DECLINE.
IF BERNIE SANDERS OR HILLARY
CLINTON GET ELECTED -- IF THEY
WERE TO WIN -- WE WILL BE A
GREAT NATION IN DECLINE.
IF THEY WIN OBAMACARE BECOMES
PERMANENT. IF THEY WIN THESE
UNCONSTITUTIONAL EXECUTIVE ORDERS FROM THIS PRESIDENT
BECOME PERMANENT.
IF THEY WIN OUR MILITARY
CONTINUES TO DECLINE.
AND IF THEY WIN THE BALANCE OF
OUR SUPREME COURT WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY LIBERAL JUSTICES
FOR OVER A DECADE OR LONGER.
THEY CANNOT WIN.
HILLARY CLINTON IS DISQUALIFIED
FROM BEING THE PRESIDENT OF THE
UNITED STATES.
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> BECAUSE SHE STORED CLASSIFIED
AND SENSITIVE INFORMATION ON HER
E-MAIL SERVER BECAUSE SHE THINKS
SHE'S ABOVE THE LAW.
AND HILLARY CLINTON CAN NEVER BE
COMMANDER IN CHIEF.
BECAUSE ANYONE WHO LIES TO THE
FAMILIES OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOST
THEIR LIVES IN THE SERVICE OF
THIS COUNTRY CAN NEVER BE
COMMANDER IN CHIEF OF THE UNITED
STATES.
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> AND SO TONIGHT I THANK YOU
HERE IN IOWA. I THANK YOU BECAUSE TONIGHT WE
HAVE TAKEN THE FIRST STEP, BUT
AN IMPORTANT STEP, TOWARDS
WINNING THIS ELECTION.
IF I AM OUR NOMINEE AND I WILL
BE OUR NOMINEE THANKS TO WHAT
YOU HAVE DONE HERE IN THIS GREAT
STATE -- [CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> -- WHEN I AM OUR NOMINEE WE
ARE GOING TO UNIFY THIS PARTY
AND WE ARE GOING TO UNIFY THE
CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT.
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> WHEN I'M OUR NOMINEE WE ARE
GOING TO GROW CONSERVATIVE
MOVEMENT. WE ARE GOING TO TAKE OUR MESSAGE
TO THE PEOPLE WHO ARE STRUGGLING
PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK.
TO THE STUDENTS LIVING UNDER THE
BURDEN OF STUDENT LOANS.
TO THE FAMILIES STRUGGLING TO
RAISE THEIR CHILDREN WITH THE
RIGHT VALUES, WE WILL TAKE OUR
MESSAGE TO THEM AND WE WILL
BRING THEM TO OUR SIDE.
WHEN I AM YOUR NOMINEE WE WILL
UNITE OUR PARTY WE WILL GROW OUR
PARTY AND WE WILL DEFEAT HILLARY
CLINTON OR BERNIE SANDERS OR
WHOEVER THEY NOMINATE.
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> I WANT TO THANK AND ALL
POWERFUL AND MIGHTY GOD.
FOR THE CHANCE THAT HE HAS GIVEN
US TO BE A PART OF THIS ENDEAVOR
HERE IN IOWA.
IT'S BEEN A PHENOMENAL
EXPERIENCE. I WANT TO THANK MY WIFE AND MY
FAMILY.
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> I WANT TO CONGRATULATE MY
FRIEND SENATOR TED CRUZ, HE
WORKED REALLY HARD HERE IN IOWA
AND I EARNED HIS VICTORY
TONIGHT.
>> I WANT TO THANK ANOTHER GOOD
FRIEND OF MINE GOVERNOR MIKE
HUCKABEE FOR HIS SERVICE TO OUR
COUNTRY TO THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. HE IS ANNOUNCING TONIGHT HE IS
SUSPENDING HIS CAMPAIGN.
WE HAVE TREMENDOUS ADMIRATION
FOR GOVERNOR HUCKABEE AND WE
THANK HIM FOR ALL HE'S DONE.
[APPLAUSE]
>> TWO CENTURIES AGO AN
EXTRAORDINARY GENERATION LIVING
IN ONE PLACE AT ONE TIME HERE IN
AMERICA, COLONISTS OF AN ENGLISH
COLONY THRAIRD THEIR
INDEPENDENCE FROM THE MOST
POWERFUL EMPIRE IN THE WORLD.
THAT OUR RIGHTS COME FROM OUR
CREATOR, THEY DO NOT COME FROM
OUR GOVERNMENT.
AND OVER THE REST, TWO CENTURY
HISTORY OF THE MOST
EXTRAORDINARY COUNTRY IN THE
MANKIND. I WAS RAISED BY PEOPLE WHO CAME
TO THIS COUNTRY WITH NOTHING.
THEY BARELY SPOKE ENGLISH AT THE
TIME. THEY HAD NO MONEY.
MY FATHER STOPPED GOING TO
SCHOOL WHEN HE WAS NINE YEARS
OLD. HE HAD TO GO WORK.
HE WOULD NEVER GO TO SCHOOL, HE
WOULD WORK FOR THE NEXT 70 YEARS
OF HIS LIFE.
WHEN MY PARENTS ARRIVED HERE IN
THIS COUNTRY THEY STRUGGLED.
THEY WERE DISCOURAGED BUT THEY
PERSEVERED, LESS THAN A DECADE
AFTER THEY RIEFD HERE WITH
NOTHING -- ARRIVED HERE WITH
NOTHING, MY FATHER A BARTENDER
ON MIAMI BEACH THEY OWNED A
HOME NOT A MANSION BUT A SAFE
AND STABLE HOME IN A SAFE AND
STABLE NEIGHBORHOOD.
DECADES LATER THEY WOULD RETIRE
WITH DIGNITY AND SECURITY.
AND MOST IMPORTANT THING OF ALL
FOR THEM, THEY LEFT ALL FOUR OF
MAYOR CHILDREN WITH A LIFE
BETTER THAN THEIR OWN.
THIS IS THE PURPOSE OF MY
PARENTS' LIFE TO GIVE THEIR KIDS
US THE CHANCE ALL THE THINGS
THEY NEVER COULD.
THAT'S NOT JUST MY STORY.
THAT'S OUR STORY.
THAT'S AMERICA'S STORY.
THAT'S THE STORY OF YOUR
PARENTS, YOU KNOW THE STORIES.
OF YOUR PAIRNS WHO SACRIFICED
AND -- OF YOUR PARENTS WHO
SACRIFICED AND GAVE UP SO MUCH
SO YOU COULD BE WHAT THEY COULD
NOT. IT'S THE STORIES OF THOSE
PARENTS TODAY WHO ARE DOING THE
SAME FOR THEIR CHILDREN.
ITIT IS THIS AMERICA THAT IS
SPECIAL AND IT IS THIS THAT WE
FIGHT PRESERVE. THIS IS THE KIND OF COUNTRY THAT
I WANT TO LEAVE FOR MY CHILDREN.
THIS IS THE KIND OF COUNTRY YOUR
CHILDREN DESERVE TO INHERIT AS
WELL AND THIS IS WHAT WE MUST
NOW DECIDE WHETHER WE WILL
REMAIN THAT KIND OF COUNTRY OR
WHETHER WE WILL BE THE FIRST
GENERATION TO LOSE IT.
IT'S AN IMPORTANT CHOICE.
AND ONE THAT EACH GENERATION
BEFORE US HAS HAD TO MAKE.
FOR AMERICA IS NOT A SPECIAL
COUNTRY BY ACCIDENT.
AMERICA IS A GREAT NATION,
BECAUSE EACH GENERATION BEFORE
US DID THEIR PART.
EACH GENERATION BEFORE US
SACRIFICED THEY CONFRONTED
THEIR CHALLENGES THEY EMBRACED
THEIR OPPORTUNITIES AND FOR OVER
TWO CENTURIES EACH GENERATION
HAS LEFT THE NEXT BETTER OFF
THAN THEMSELVES.
NOW THE TIME HAS COME FOR US TO
DO THE SAME.
NOW THE MOMENT HAS ARRIVED FOR
THIS GENERATION OF AMERICANS TO
RISE UP TO THE CALLING OF OUR
HERITAGE. NOW THE TIME HAS COME FOR US TO
TAKE OUR PLACE AND DO WHAT WE
MUST. AND WHEN I'M ELECTED PRESIDENT
OF THESE GREAT UNITED STATES WE
WILL DO OUR PART.
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> WHEN I --
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> WHEN I AM ELECTED PRESIDENT
WHEN WE TOGETHER ACHIEVE THIS
VICTORY, WE WILL EMBRACE ALL OF
THE PRINCIPLES THAT MADE AMERICA
GREAT AND WE WILL APPLY THEM TO
THE UNIQUE CHALLENGES OF THIS
NEW CENTURY. AND WHEN OUR WORK IS DONE, HERE
IS WHAT HISTORY WILL SAY OF THIS
GENERATION. IT WILL SAY THAT WE LIVED IN THE
EARLY YEARS OF THIS NEW CENTURY
IN AN UNCERTAIN AND DIFFICULT
TIME. BUT WE REMEMBERED WHO WE WE'RE.
WE ROSE UP TO THE CHALLENGE OF
OUR TIME.
WE CONFRONTED OUR PROBLEMS AND
WE SOLVED THEM.
AND BECAUSE WE DID THE AMERICAN
DREAM DIDN'T JUST SURVIVE.
IT REACHED MORE PEOPLE AND
CHANGED MORE LIVES THAN EVER
BEFORE. BECAUSE WE DID OUR CHILDREN AND
OUR GRANDCHILDREN GREW UP TO BE
THE FREEST AND THE MOST
PROSPEROUS AMERICANS THAT EVER
LIVED BECAUSE WE DID WHAT NEEDED
TO BE DONE.
THE 21st CENTURY WASN'T JUST
AS GOOD AS THE 20th CENTURY.
IT WAS BETTER. IT WAS A NEW AMERICAN CENTURY.
[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]
>> THIS IS THE TASK BEFORE US.
AND I THANK MY LORD AND SAVIOR
JESUS CHRIST, I THANK GOD FOR
ALLOWING ME THE OPPORTUNITY TO
COME THIS FAR WITH EACH OF YOU.
I AM GRATEFUL TO YOU IOWA.
YOU BELIEVED IN ME, WHEN OTHERS
DIDN'T THINK THIS NIGHT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. WHEN PERHAPS YOU WERE LOST IN
THE DAILY NARRATIVE.
WHEN SOME SUGGESTED THAT PERHAPS
IT WAS TIME TO STEP ASIDE YOU
BELIEVED IN ME.
YOU WALKED WITH US.
YOU MADE THE CALLS AND KNOCKED
ON DOORS.
YOU MADE A HUGE DIFFERENCE
TONIGHT.
WE ARE GOING TO BE BACK.
I WILL BE BACK HERE, IN OCTOBER
NEXT YEAR --
>> MARCO RUBIO SPEAKING TO HIS
SUPPORTERS TONIGHT. HE COMES IN NUMBER 3 BUT
CLEARLY, FEELING GOOD ABOUT HIS
PERFORMANCE.
AS YOU CAN SEE TED CRUZ DECLARED
THE WINNER IN THE IOWA CAUCUSES.
DONALD TRUMP SECOND.
BUT IT'S VERY CLOSE BETWEEN HE
AND MARCO RUBIO. I JUST WANT TO POINT OUT THAT
IF YOU LOOK AT THE DEMOCRATIC
NUMBERS, HILLARY CLINTON AND
BERNIE SANDERS ARE VERY, VERY
CLOSE.
THEY'RE ONLY SIX DELEGATE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HILLARY
CLINTON AND BERNIE SANDERS AND
IT'S 88% OF THE VOTE REPORTING.
MICHAEL SHURE IS LIVE AT TED
CRUZ'S PARTY HEADQUARTERS IN DES
MOINES.
AND MIKE, TELL US WHAT THEY'RE
SAYING THERE.
>> YEAH, WELL YOU KNOW JOHN
THERE'S OBVIOUSLY JUBILATION
HERE. THEY HAVE RUN AN EXCELLENT
CAMPAIGN HERE IN IOWA, WE HAVE
WITNESSED IT AND BEEN ON THE BUS
WITH THEM. TED CRUZ IS THE FIRST CANDIDATE
JOHN TO ANNOUNCE HIS CANDIDACY
FOR PRESIDENT. HE DID SO IN MARCH AND SINCE
MARCH, WHAT HE HAS DONE IS
ASSURED PEOPLE IN IOWA THAT HE
COULD LEAVE IOWA AS A
CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN WITH AN
ORGANIZED MOVEMENT IN THE SOUTH.
THAT WAS VERY IMPORTANT.
HE HAD PASTORS ORGANIZED IN 99
COUNTY, CRUZ VISITED ALL THAT 99
COUNTY WHAT THEY CALL THE FULL
GRASSLEY. NOBODY HAD ANTICIPATED DONALD
TRUMP, THEY ALSO SANTA TIME
GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER OF
WISCONSIN WAS THOUGHT TO BE ABLE
TO COALESCE, TO JOIN THE
EVANGELICAL VOTE THE BUSINESS
THE CONSERVATIVE THE
ESTABLISHMENT VOTE WITH THE
REPUBLICANS. CRUZ SAID NO, THAT CONSERVATIVE
CHRISTIAN VOTE IS GOING TO ME,
HE ORGANIZED AND HE REALLY BEAT
ODDS HERE AND THERE'S REAL
JUBILATION HERE. BECAUSE THEY FEEL IS HE A
CANDIDATE, A REPUBLICAN
CANDIDATE THAT CAN WIN AS A
CONSERVATIVE HERE IN IOWA AND
THEN GO ON TO THE SOUTH AND NOT
FADE AS OTHER HAVE.
RICK SANTORUM AND MIKE HUCKABEE
AS WE HAVE MENTIONED SO OFTEN
JOHN.
>> DID YOU GET A SENSE THAT CRUZ
SUPPORTERS EXPECTED THIS?
OBVIOUSLY THEY WANT THEIR
CANDIDATE TO WIN BUT DID THEY
REALLY EXPECT TO WIN TONIGHT?
>> YOU KNOW, JOHN THAT'S A TOUGH
QUESTION TO ANSWER.
WHEN I WAS HERE THREE WEEKS AGO
YES, THEY WERE VERY VERY
CONFIDENT.
THE FEELING I'VE HAD SINCE
WEDNESDAY -- >> I'M GOING TO INTERRUPT YOU
FOR A SECOND BECAUSE DONALD
TRUMP IS TAKING THE STAGE LET'S
LISTEN IN TO THE CROWD.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
I LOVE YOU PEOPLE.
THANK YOU.
>> UNBELIEVABLE. I HAVE TO START BY SAYING I
ABSOLUTELY LOVE THE PEOPLE OF
IOWA.
UNBELIEVABLE!
[APPLAUSE]
>> SO ON JUNE 16th, WHEN WE
STARTED THIS JOURNEY THERE WERE
17 CANDIDATES.
I WAS TOLD BY EVERYBODY DO NOT
GO TO IOWA.
YOU COULD NEVER FINISH EVEN IN
THE TOP 10.
AND I SAID BUT I HAVE FRIENDS IN
IOWA. I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE IN IOWA.
I THINK THEY'LL REALLY LIKE ME.
LET'S GIVE IT A SHOT.
THEY SAID DON'T DO IT.
I SAID I HAVE TO DO IT.
AND WE FINISHED SECOND.
AND I WANT TO TELL YOU
SOMETHING: I'M JUST HONORED.
I'M REALLY HONORED.
AND I WANT TO CONGRATULATE TED
AND I WANT TO CONGRATULATE ALL
OF THE INCREDIBLE CANDIDATES
INCLUDING MIKE HUCKABEE OWHO'S
BECOME A REALLY GOOD FRIEND OF
MINE. SO CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYBODY.
CONGRATULATIONS.
[APPLAUSE]
>> I WANT TO THANK ALL OF THE
FOLKS THAT WORKED WITH US.
WE HAD A GREAT TEAM AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A GREAT TEAM
AND WE'RE JUST SO HAPPY WITH THE
WAY EVERYTHING WORKED OUT.
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY I HAVE TO
THANK MY WIFE, AND LARA AND ERIC
AND VANESSA AND DON I THINK DON
AND ERIC I THINK YOU DID ABOUT
SIX SPEECHES TODAY.
SO I JUST WANT TO THANK MY
FAMILY. THEY HAVE BEEN SO AMAZING AND SO
SUPPORTIVE.
AND WE'VE HAD EVERY INDICATION.
WE HAVE A POLL, WE'RE 28 POINTS
AHEAD, NEW HAMPSHIRE WE LOVE
NEW HAMPSHIRE WE LOVE SOUTH
CAROLINA.
AND WE'RE LEAVING TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE'LL BE IN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
AND THAT WILL BE SOMETHING
SPECIAL.
IT'S GOING TO BE AGREAT WEEK AND
WE'RE GOING TO BE UP HERE NEXT
WEEK AND I THINK WE'RE GOING TO
BE PROCLAIMING VICTORY I HOPE.
I WILL SAY THIS: I DON'T KNOW
WHO'S GOING TO WIN BETWEEN
BERNIE AND HILLARY, I DON'T KNOW
WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH
HILLARY, BIGGER PROBLEMS THAN
THE ONES SHE'S GOT IN TERMS OF
NOMINATION HE.
BUTHE -- NOMINATIONS
BUT WE HAVE GOT SO MANY
INDICATIONS IN POLLS THAT WE
BEAT HER AND BEAT HER EASILY.
WE WILL GO ON TO GET THE
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION AND EASILY
BEAT HILLARY OR BERNIE OR
WHOEVER THE HELL THEY THROW UP
THERE. IOWA WE LOVE YOU WE THANK YOU
YOU'RE SPECIAL WE WILL BE BACK
MANY, MANY TIMES.
IN FACT I THINK I MIGHT COME
HERE AND BUY A FARM.
I LOVE IT, OKAY?
THANK YOU.
THANK YOU EVERYBODY.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
>> QUICK SPEECH FROM DONALD
TRUMP, ONE OF THE SHORTEST OF
THE SEASON RIGHT?
>> YOU KNOW THAT LAND PRICES IN
IOWA ARE NOW GOING UP BECAUSE
DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO BE A
BUYER. VERY UNCONVENTIONAL POLITICAL
SPEECH AN EYE ON YOUR NEXT
CONTEST. EYE ON NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HE HAS THROWN OUT ALL THE
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM OF POLITICS.
EVEN THOUGH HE RUINED HIMSELF
WITH THE EXPECTATIONS BY
CLAIMING THAT HE IS GOING TO
WIN. >> I WILL MENTION THAT JEANNIE
HAS SAID ALL ALONG SHE DIDN'T
THINK HE WAS GOING TO BE THE
NOMINEE. >> AND WHAT WE HAVE MENTIONED IS
THAT DAVID SCHUSTER HAS TO SING
TO ME.
>> WE'RE GOING TO SETTLE ON IT
ON THE 11:00 HOUR ABOUT MICHAEL
SHURE AND WARPING UP HIS VOICE.
>> NO, NO.
LET'S GO TO THE DEMOCRATIC
NUMBERS, THIS IS THE MOST
INTERESTING RACE OF THE FLIGHT
IT IS THE CLOSEST NUMBER, 628
DELEGATES TO 625 DELEGATES.
IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT HILLARY
CLINTON WILL LOSE IOWA TONIGHT.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR HER
CAMPAIGN IF SHE LOSES DOES IT
MATTER EITHER WAY IF SHE'S SO
CLOSE?
>> IT MATTERS SO MUCH, EVEN
THOSE THOUGH SHE EKES IT OUT.
NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS ALWAYS BEEN
HER FIRE WALL.
WE'VE SEEN BERNIE SANDERS
GETTING AN INCREASING NUMBER OF
FLORMTSENDORSEMENTS IN SOUTH CAROLINA.
>> AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE EURL SEE
AYOU'LLSEE A BUNCH OF REPUBLICANS
DROP
OUT. >> ALL RIGHT, ALI VELSHI IN DES
MOINES. >> THIS EVENT IN DES MOINES IS
NOT FINISHED YET WITHIN HALF A
PERCENTAGE POINT.
>> SO INCREDIBLY CLOSE A LOT OF
SUPPORTERS AT HIS HEADQUARTERS
ARE REALLY ENERGIZED.
ALTHOUGH THEY WERE VERY PROUD OF
HIM NEVER THOUGHT HE WOULD MAKE
IT THIS FAR.
THEY'RE HOPING HE COMES HERE AND
SPEAKS FLIT.
NOW ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WAS
REALLY CRITICAL WAS THAT YOUTH
VOTE.
WE SAW THAT AT DRAKE UNIVERSITY,
A LOT OF FOLKS CAME OUT.
ALMOST 100% MORE AT THAT
PARTICULAR PRECINCT THAN THE
LAST TIME AROUND.
AND BEHIND YOU CAN SEE THAT
CROWD, IT LOOKS LIKE HE MAY BE
COMING UP TO SPEAK.
AGAIN, IT'S A LOT OF EXCITEMENT
RIGHT NOW.
AGAIN, NO ONE THOUGHT HE'D MAKE
IT THIS FAR AND IT BODES WELL
FOR THE CAMPAIGN THEY BELIEVE
EVEN THOUGH HE'S NOT NUMBER 1.
BUT WE SHOULD TURN TO HIM TO
HEAR WHAT HE'S ABOUT TO SAY.
ALI.
>> SORRY IT'S ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE
TO HEAR YOU IT'S SO LOUD OUT
THERE. WE'RE GOING TO CHECK BACK WITH
YOU AND WHEN BERNIE SANDERS
COMES BACK TO SPEAK.
JOHN BACK TO YOU.
>> SO FAR, TED CRUZ A BIG
WINNER, DONALD TRUMP AND MARCO
RUBIO SECOND AND THIRD.
THE BIG RACE IS BETWEEN HILLARY
CLINTON AND BERNIE SANDERS AND
IT'S NOT OVER YET DAVID.
>> IT IS NOT OVER, SHE HAS LOST
VOTERS ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE
UNDER 302 TO 1.
THESE WERE CRUCIAL FOR BARACK
OBAMA'S SUCCESS AND A LOT OF
THE ESTABLISHMENT WILL SAY WAIT
A MINUTE, SHE IS ABOUT TO LOSE
THE IOWA CAUCUSES BASED ON THE
PRECINCTS THAT ARE STILL OUT.
SHE MAY LOSE TO A GUY WHO'S FIVE
YEARS OLDER THAN HER WHO WANTS
TO BURN DOWN WALL STREET,
PROVIDE SING PAYOR HEALTH CARE
AND PROVIDE FREE EDUCATION.
THINGS THAT ARE NOT PRAGMATIC
CANNOT BE DONE.
>> YOU BOTH THINK IT'S A HUGE
LOSS FOR HILLARY CLINTON?
>> I THINK IT IS FOR HER.
>> IT'S MEASURED SHE KNOWS SHE'S
A VERY SMART CANDIDATE.
HER PEOPLE KNOW THERE WAS GOING
TO BE A TOUGH RACE, IF SHE LOSES
TO BERNIE SANDERS IT'S NOT GOING
TO BE THE END OF THE WORLD.
>> MARTIN O'MALLEY SAYING THANKS
TO EVERYBODY. WHO'S GETTING OUT OF THE RACE.
>> IF HILLARY CLINTON WANTED TO
WRAP UP THIS NOMINATION EARLY
SHE IS NOW FACING THE PROSPECT
OF A LONG DRAWN OUT FIGHT
FLOIMTION WHERE SHENAWMTION WHERENOMINATION
WHERE SHE HAS TO HAVE
A LOTSPEND A LOT OF MONEY.
>> ANTONIO MORA COMING UP NEXT.
>>> THIS SHOW IS CAPTIONED LIVE.
>>> GOOD EVENING, I'M ANTONIO
MORA.
THIS IS AL JAZEERA AMERICA.
IOWANS CAST THE FIRST BALLOTS OF
THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
LET'S LOOK AT THE LATEST RESULTS
ON TWO VERY TIGHT RACES.
TEXAS SENATOR TED CRUZ IS THE
PROTECTED WINNER OF THE REPUBLIC
CAUCUSES IN WHAT TUR