>> leave running behind, behind the turbo charged volkswagen atlas. does life beautiful >> why more liebermann at the pentagon? >> this cnn they claim is hamas leader. yeah, how yet sinwar inside a tunnel below the southern gaza city of khan yunis you can also see what the idf says is his wife and children, but you see there highlighting him there. now they say this video was recorded days after the october 7 attack israel has publicly accused essay show israeli forces in a section of the tunnels where they believe sinwar was hiding. and what they're showing here is a kitchen, bedrooms, and tons of money. again, these are idf footage cnn cannot independently verify what it is or that sinwar, the man seen in the video, or when it was recorded. the idf has not provided additional evidence to support their claims

nonetheless, that footage is, of course fascinating. thanks so much for joining us cnn special coverage of the new york special elastin starts no w >> in new york right now. firstly, contestant special election is underway. voters even braving snowstorm to cast ballots in the race to replace ousted republican congressman george santos. the outcome will determine if republican shrink or expand their razor thin majority in the us house representatives and could send the message about both parties prospects in the november battles. but congress and the white house, i'm anderson cooper, new york was seen as special election coverage. >> and i'm jake tapper in washington. we're counting down to the first results in this high-stakes contest with urgent patients. for american politics in 2024, the vote to fill the seat previously held by congressman santos comes

after many months of scandal and litany of lies he led to his indictment on 23 criminal charges, followed by his historic expulsion from congress in december. >> tonight's >> heated race pits veteran democrat and former congressman tom suozzi against the relative newcomer to politics, republican nassau county legislators, mazi pilip. this is a potential nail-biter of a race that's about much more than just who represents new york's third congressional district in the long island area once once reliably democratic turf that is now a political battleground. this rings tonight, could provide important clues for the biden and trump campaigns as they gear up for an expected remarks that may be decided by me moderate suburban voters, such as those who dominate the third congressional district. and it will have a direct impact on the balance of power in congress republicans are eating you're to add to their current seven seat advantage in the house democrats hoping to make the gop's slim majority even

slimmer as a special election unfolds memory where's of the us house of representatives or just got a fresh reminder about how much every parent's republicans successfully impeach homeland security secretary hello, hundred mayorkas, just minutes ago after a similar vote. last week, narrowly veil in an embarrassing public defeat for gop leaders cnn's manu raju joins us now from capitol hill. manu big night, big night for republicans. >> yeah, by the slimmest of margins just now, jake 214 a 213, making alejandro mayorkas just the second cabinet secretary in american history to be mps, republicans, moving this after that embarrassing defeat last week and said this is going to go over to the senate despite three republicans just now voting against it, expect the senate potentially by a bipartisan majority in the senate to quickly dismiss this. but jake, this margin underscores the significance of this race tonight, one vote would have

made a difference here if the democrat tom suozzi, we're in this seat, that would've been enough to scuttle this effort. masih pilip, the report publican told me just recently that she would have voted yes, that would give them cushion on this vote. and that is why this moment is important about there are huge issues that are pending before the house. these two members, how they come into congress, they will in fact impact how the republican leadership deals with it. everyone watching this race so intently tonight, jake. >> all right, mana raju, thanks so much. now let's get an update on voting in that special congressional election in new york, cnn's john berman is at a voting site in carl place, new york on long island. john show us around and tell us about turnout today. >> yeah, welcome to carl place high school, home of the frogs, as we like to say here in right now, over the last few minutes, we did have a few voters show up, which actually i have to say a little bit unusual because you got about 20 minutes with no voters here. you can see there are 14 voting booths here 14 voting booths as

of now, 11 is occupied and turnout could be part of the big story here. jake, because as of now, 80,000 people have voted on election day in new york 38000080000. people voted early. so it's even between the early vote and the election day vote. why does that matter? because in the early vote it broke down 46% of the early vote was registered democrat, 32% registered republican. so the democrats theoretically have an edge in the early vote in the mail elon vote, the election day vote, you would think that the republicans have got to make up a big margin there. as i said, it was dead quiet here in the morning during the snowstorm, it picked up in the afternoon after you vote in those booths i just showed you, you bring your ballllot over to this machine i over here. i'm not allowed to show you the screen, but i can read off of it 262 people have

voted in this machine and there are seven of them here. as i said, it's been fairly light. 80,000 total in the third district voting today by comparison, in 2022, 192 thousand people voted on election day. so that is a much, much lower turnout. i'm walking outside your first of all, you can see some of the snow in the backyard and a voter xhr. >> what's your name? donald. donald. thanks for talking us. thanks for coming out. you just voted here in this special election what were the major issues that brought you here? >> immigration. immigration >> and who you vote for. >> mazik, maasie. >> she was the one you thought could do best on immigration yeah. >> all right. thanks for talking to us. thanks for being here. i do want to note it is interesting. we've talked to a number of voters today, almost universally. they said the border and immigration is the number one issue. do but it doesn't break purely for the republicans. many, if not most of the voters we spoken to here say that they prefer the democrat tom suozzi on the issue of the border and

immigration. he's run all his ads on that. so we are perhaps seeing some persuasion here, jake. >> all right, john berman and carl place, new york. thanks so much. let's go over to john king at the magic wall to talk about new york's third congressional district. so it's in long island and part of queens it's in long island, >> part of queens. i left it out, brought it just so you see exactly what i just seen. new york city here. then you see long island comes out and goes, this is the district of light gray area a. why is it significant? first and foremost, because of the math over your shoulder? number one, would you just saw that you mentioned the house republicans impeaching the homeland security secretary, very narrow majority right now to 19 to 212, a few vacancies. this is one of the vacancies that will be filled. new york's third congressional district. george santos has gone because of he disgraced himself and disgrace the country he's got. so what are you looking for? is there any national message out of new york tonight? hi, this this just a one-off race will learn as the votes commit, but this is an interesting district for a number of reasons. let's just take a look as we come through here and bring it out. number one, this is a district. if you look at the last ten years of american political life, the

democrats should, when george santos was a republican why should democrats, when democrats have been doing very well among those higher educated voters, this district, one, about one and a half times the national average in terms of voters that have a college degree, at least a bachelor's degree, or higher. so it is more educated. that is one reason in recent political times, you would say it should tilt democratic. another reason, this is a very affluent congressional district. if you look here, 200,000 a little less than 200,022% above 200,000 income, nearly 30%, again, more than 1.5 times the national average, the median income in this district. so it is more educated in it is more affluent, which means if you look new york suburbs here, but the philadelphia suburbs, the cleveland suburb, the atlanta suburbs, the phoenix suburbs, the people who made joe biden president or the people who live in districts like this in new york. that's one reason to look at. another reason to look at it when you think about it as we go on through november, let me stretch this out a little bit. really interesting. demographics in this district, not a huge black vote in this district, a traditional piece

of the democratic base. so tom suozzi has to get number one, nearly six in ten voters in the district or white. i talked about the last couple of weeks ago when he was in here. he pointed to this, the asian population, asian voters. it's nearly 23% of the population in the district is a giant swing constituency. and he said it was trending back toward the republicans and he needed to pull it back. also, we've seen on the 2020 presidential election, latino starting slowly, not hugely, but enough to make a difference trending back toward republicans more than 13% of the electorate in this district. so it's the suburbs. >> you have two >> great swing groups, latinos and agents to keep an eye now, let's see, let's see if it sends a message. number one tells mike johnson how big is majority is the number two, we'll see if there are some november lessons, exciting stuff. >> dana bash >> over to you well, jake these are two candidates who have very, very different backgrounds. in fact, the notion of the two of them wanting to be the representative from this district is about all they have in common.

>> veteran politician. >> my name is tom was running for the united states congress versus the newcomer the high dollar high-stakes long island special election in new york's third district for me >> it's maasie versus suozzi and i'm hoping people will vote for suozzi, not mazi, their names may rhyme, but that's about all republican mazi pilip and democrat tom suozzi haven't common. >> i >> plan to vote for you. >> don't watch because i don't wanna lose your vote. >> whomever wins this seat vacant since republican george santos was expelled, will have a big impact on a house with a narrow gop majority >> suozzi is a >> seasoned politician, would deep roots in the district where he held the congressional seat for three terms, but left in 2022 in what ended up a failed bid for new york governor. what do you want to go back to congress? >> you know, our country's in a lot of trouble and i feel like i have got a unique set of

skills that can help during this difficult time >> congratulations, you are now canceled. legislate his >> opponent, hadn't held any office until three years ago you were born in ethiopia, moved to israel when you were 12, and then came here? >> yeah. >> that's a beautiful things about my journey. even though there was born in ethiopian small village, age of 125, immigrated to israel. i finished school there joined the idf. i came to this country about 17 years ago. my husband also, you may get hit from ukraine to this country. >> the mother of seven and orthodox jew is not your average nassau county republican. and that's the point. >> i was just looking at a picture up there of a bunch of white men who are more typical of this area. and what makes you think that in divided government, you'll be able to do what you say you want to do. >> well, i won't because it's all about coming says government. i very good. >> once people collaborating with people, communicating for

me is not about republican-democrat. for me, it's about all about the people, about our country >> for many voters, the top issue here is immigration. >> biden has to do something about the border. >> the border is a big, big issue. >> it's me right now. it has to be the border and everything that's been going on with that. >> most of the $21 million spent on ads about the border, biden's open border leads to violence right here. >> you've been hearing a lot of nonsense blaming tom suozzi for the migrant problem. >> it was the most explosive issue and their only debate when you are in a majority in congress, you voted that's the open the borders. you create a migrant crisis. and yes, you kicked ice from here when people said, let's abolish ice was only one of 18 democrats. i want against my party >> that's suozzi strategy. sound is toughest any republican. we're nowhere near the southern border. here in new york. almost every single person i've talked to, they have said the border is their number one issue

>> well, it's right here on our backyard. i mean, there are a lot of migrants have come up from texas and it's affecting people's lives here. and the republicans have very effectively weaponized it as an issue as they did with crime. a few years ago here sure >> you can divorce pill up, came out against the bipartisan immigration bill that died in the senate last week. >> there wasn't on studying the issue of the border crisis. i know because we were once the solution is, we need to come up with planner place how are we going to bring people legally to our the way i came to this country, the way my husband came to this country before santos turned it, read biden comfortably won this suburban part of long island. democrats see it as a key indicator for this november, and they wanted back joe biden won what is now this district by a percentage points why is this close? >> people are just upset that they're not seeing anything get done to address the things that affect their lives. >> and would about the santos effect.

>> i think people are fed up with the whole george santos thing. it's over, it's yesterday's news, but for the fact that my opponent has not been transparent at all, are you saying she's not transparent? i'll let george santos exactly the same it santos to point out, she's that would have not said this, but for her did big charge. he's been indicted yet, but we don't know anything about her he's a wire. >> bruce blakeman is executive of nassau county, where the gop machine is fever actually working to keep suozzi from turning the seat blue. >> he walked away from the job now he wants to come back and represent people. so why give him a second chance? >> but at the polls, voters we talked to were split. >> i think you guys like tom suozzi has had a lot opportunity to make an impact here and we'll community already in long island, so better to have some a new face and new blood. >> i would think so. i would think so >> suozzi, how come >> because he's normal >> really some normalcy? >> tree. >> now when tom suozzi said it's about suozzi versus mazi. he's not just making a pun, he's making a really important

point that he wants voters to see him for the longtime local politician that he is not like joe biden, who he admits his underwater in his district, not like the squad. he mentioned he went out of his way to tell me that he concerned about the leftward drift of his party and anderson mazi pilip, she also tried to run her own race. she didn't even admit to voting for president trump until a few days ago. >> i under sorry, dana, thanks. back with the team here in new york. >> scott jennings. what do you what is the importance of this race? just kind of big picture? >> well, number one, you see the party spending so much money on this or trying to buy some narrative momentum, right? if republicans can win, shows a little bit of momentum. if democrats can take a seat back, it kind of staunchest some of the bleeding that they've been doing. and the national media cycle lately. so that's number one. number two, testing out this immigration issue. it's obviously the top issue in the race and the republicans really do believe that it is going to be useful in all kinds of districts across the country that are nowhere near the southern border. so this is the first test case for that. now

they have been outspent about two-to-one. and i think the republicans are targeting about 24 districts this year that are less democratic than this one. so even if they don't win, if they get close here, or when using immigration as an issue. i think you're going to see this become a, obviously a key strategy and all these other targeted racist throughout the rest of the year, kathleen, just in terms of the race, how do you see ago? >> so this is obviously we have to keep in mind that this is a special elections. so i think that they have been trending more democratic since 2023 last year. with pat ryan, who won a special election but i think if you look at the registration, it should be tom suozzi. if you look at the turnout, at least early voting, it should be tom suozzi, democrats traditionally in this district vote early, and republicans voted yes on the day of the i shouldn't. there was a snowstorm this morning to turn out a little

low this morning. question this will so that's set it back a little bit, but the numbers are still very, very close. and i think what as scott was talking about what the issues are two years ago, it was public safety. now it's the migrant issue. these have been very good issues for republicans to raanan. but if you look since 2021, democrats say, oh, this was the biden plus this or biden-plus that. since 2021, at least on long island, the trend has not been biden. it has not been democrats. there has not been a democratic one on long island since 2020, which is why if we beat a democrat, if we beat them today, it begins to punch back on this idea that immigration is going to be a big killer issue for the republicans definitely is important because >> immigration does seem to be the biggest. >> yeah. and if we win, it shows that it's not going to be this walkaway issue that republicans think they've generated this whole thing they put a bunch of migrants on buses and send them up here to scramble up politics and blue states and blue cities to make

it tough for us to make immigration a real issue for us if it turns out that somebody who's a democrat, but his strong and smart immigration can beat back a republican tonight. it shows this issue is not going to go the way i think it's going to go nationally. >> if i can just add i would say that i think tom suozzi has done a really good job talking to the voters and how they feel. he is not talking about a national message. he's talking about being a common sense democrat who knows how to get the job done, who knows how to fix a problem. he's acknowledging how voters are feeling. and i think that is refreshing, at least on long island, to hear a deputy maasie i mean, is more well-known in the areas. got a longer track record. >> excuse me, >> suozzi is more well-known than than maasie is certainly, but she does have the republican machine, but behind her. >> if i want to use like a football superbowl analogies ozzie would be the san francisco 49ers coming in. he's known is one in that area. as was mentioned before,

the president biden had won the district by eight points. registration favors the democrats. but the question is, on this game, day who's going to show up? and as a special election, what would often happens is turnout is dramatically lower and pull out becomes a key ingredient. so can now saw pull out the vote and if they do, she will win and if not, allow me just take i know the word immigration. i think it's not immigration. it's the migrant issue that is really topical here. it's not your normal immigration conversation that we've had in this country for the last 30 or 40 years. it's where people come here illegally. they're sent to places like new york city. they're kicking cops in times square in on a 30 and watch it, watching so i think that's where that's where we're going to go. yeah. immigration crime, the issue as we count down to the end of voting, the first results in

tonight's pivotal house raisel be joined live by republican presidential candidate nikki haley is just days away from her next primary showdown with donald trump. >> much >> more of our special election coverage ahead have we're here to get your side of the store >> affairs library, prostitution. why do we keep ending up here? you can't write this stuff. >> yeah, night it dates of scandal with jake tapper back-to-back premieres sunday at nine on cnn. >> when i was diagnosed with hiv, i didn't know who i would be, but here i am being me. >> keep being you and ask your health care provider about the number one prescribed hiv treatment. big taavi bits rv is a complete one pill once a day treatment used for hiv many people, whether you're 18 or any with one small pill, pick derby fights hiv to help you get to undetectable and stay there. whether you're just starting or replacing your current treatment research shows that taking it hiv treatment as prescribed and getting to and staying undetectable prevents transmitting hiv through sex. serious side effects can occur, including kidney problems and

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>> i go back, we are counting down to the end of voting in a pivotal special congressional election new york, in new york, third congressional district, you fill, fill the house seat previously held by republican congressman george santos and until he is rare expulsion from khan congress in december, the gop's razor thin majority in the house of representatives could be strengthened or diminished depending upon what happens this evening, both parties this will be engaging the impact of divisive issues that are playing out in new york and nationwide, including immigration and inflation, abortion rights, the israel hamas it's war. tonight, special election comes, of course, as another momentous vote is around the corner, the south carolina republican presidential primary, which is only 11 then days away joining us now from south carolina, charleston specifically, gop presidential candidate and former south carolina governor nikki haley governor haley, thanks so much for joining us. i want to ask you about

tonight's race. the republican candidate, mazi pilip, took great pains to distance herself from former president trump throughout this campaign, she was even reluctant to say whether or not she voted for him in 2020, though she did admit to doing that three days ago. what does that say to you about trump and this seat? >> why it says that she's looking at past history. i mean, you look at the fact that he lost it for republicans in 2018, he lost it for republicans in 2020, lost it for republicans in 20 the 22. but even look at last week, he lost it for republicans on a border issue. he lost it for republicans on it. israel issue. he lost his own immunity and the party chair lost her job. i mean, everything that he is involved with with republicans. we lose and i don't know how many more times we have to lose before everybody realizes that he's actually part of the problem. >> so early this morning, as you know, the us senate passed a $95 billion foreign aid

package to help ukraine, israel, and taiwan. but even though it passed in the senate with bipartisan support house speaker johnson's as he's not going to bring this bill to the floor for a vote. instead, this evening, their house spent its time impeaching the secretary of the department of homeland security and mr. mayorkas. obviously that's not going to go anywhere in the senate. >> i'm wondering what >> your reaction is to both of these actions >> well, it shows the dysfunction of washington, dc, right? it shows the dysfunction of congress. it shows the fact that they care more about peacocking than they do about getting anything done. but let's first say that number one priority is to secure the border period that's the focus that should be happening. we wouldn't be having all this if the focus would go back to the border and you look at the bill that we had last week. it was weaken some ways. it was strong and other ways, but congress should have stayed there and figured it out. the american people both parties are saying

secure the border before something happens. trump never should have come in and said, don't pass it until the general election. we can't wait that long, but pass a good bill, a strong bill, one that's going to actually protect americans you look at the foreign aid bill and i look at why hasn't joe biden told americans why they should care congress hasn't done it either. tell people why they i think ukraine is important and the fact that helping ukraine prevents war, tell them why israel, it's important, because it actually helps us avoid terrorism when we do that, tell them all of these things while talking about the border. it's so disjointed what's coming out of washington, dc from the president to congress that the american people don't know what to think anymore. >> governor haley, i want to follow up on something that you said earlier today. you said that you thought that president biden should resign in the quote, best interest of the country. are you saying you don't believe he's able to serve out the rest of this term the next 11 months

>> i mean, i think that democrats see this for what it is dana, this is, i wish him well, i really do, but there's no way democrats aren't totally panicking right now. you look at the special counsel report that says he's mentally diminished, but it's not just the report we can look at him from two years ago. we can see that he's diminishing, but that's what happens when you're in your '80s. those things happen. and i think the fact is we've got to put country above these people. joe biden has word all about himself. donald trump is worried all about himself, but nobody pays warning about the american people and doing what's right right. the party that lets go of their 80 year-old candidate is the party that will win. and i think both parties need to realize that >> but just to be clear, what hugh hewitt, who interviewed you this morning said is that he wrote a piece arguing that, but never mind the next election that he should resign now, and it looked like you agree he'd with that and you said that that would be in the best interests to agree with

that. so resign now, kamala harris should be for us. i do. i i do agree with that and listen, i'm not excited about kamala harris being president. i think that that and you should worry everybody just as much because we've seen she couldn't handle the border. she couldn't handle artificial intelligence. we don't know. but at the same time, i looked at how diminished joe biden is and what bothers me is how does russia see that? how does iran see that? how does china see that? we have to look at this from a national security perspective? this is not about being nice to him because he's sweet and he's done his service and all that. this is about, we need somebody at the top of their game making decisions on national security in the future of our economy. we don't have that right now. >> governor on national security, president biden criticized donald trump today for suggesting that he would encourage russia to invade nato allies who didn't pay enough in dues, biden called trump's comments dumb, shameful, dangerous on american. he sounds like what you've been saying about donald trump

lately? >> well, i think you look at what he said about nato. it goes back to when donald trump leaves the teleprompter. he is unhinged and we saw that the idea that he would suggest to not defend our allies in nato, but to go a step further and actually encouraged putin to invade our allies, the same allies that stood with us at 09:11 is unthinkable, but more than that, think of what he's doing. donald trump is citing with a thug that has caused half 1 million people in ukraine to be wounded or killed he's siding with someone who kills his political opponents. he siding with putin who is arrested. evan gershkovich just for doing his job of journalistic, right? journalism. >> i mean, he >> citing with someone who has wanted to destroy america, that is not someone that you want at the top of the ticket. that's not someone you want to lead our country, and that's not someone who's going to prevent war this kind of, these kind of

comments that you just made now about donald trump. combined with your reaction to what he said this week about your husband being absent even though he's representing america and serving america in africa and in the military made you say that you don't think that donald trump is qualified to be president, are you rethinking your pledge to support trump if he's the nominee what i said is, if you look at what he said, look, it's not personal with me and michael. we know that in politics, you get a lot of arrows, thrown at you. it's not personal and that's actually very different than donald trump who takes everything personally. there should be about the american people, the problem with what he said is if you mock one person in the military, you're mocking everybody in the military. >> this sacrifice. they don't make the sacrifice because it's fun or for kicks and giggles, they sacrifice and

they're willing to shed blood because they believed that this is about something bigger than themselves. they no freedom is not free. and the fact that he would mock them. but this is a pattern that we've seen over and over again when he said that dying military members were suckers are losers, are when he was at arlington national cemetery and he said, what was in it for them? does keep saying these things is an insult to every military family who sacrifices when their loved ones go away. and that, how do you have someone who's going to lead our country when you don't think he's going to protect the people who are willing linked to make that extreme sacrifice. it's just very concerning. >> so it sounds like you are rethinking your pledge to support him if he's the nominee? >> what i'm thinking is you all need to ask him what he has to say about that because he owes a lot of military families and explanation with that, he owes a lot of veterans and explanation on that. you don't disrespect someone who's done something that you weren't willing to do? he was not

willing to go overseas, but supposedly because he had bone spurs, he's never been nero military uniform. he has no right to talk about anything that a service member does because that's off-limits with him when he wasn't willing to serve himself. >> governor. thank you so much for being here tonight. we appreciate it. >> thanks so much. go to nikkihaley.com. >> there is much more coming up in our special election coverage as voting is winding down in the congressional race to replace it's expelled republican congressman george santos up next a trail of lies and alleged crimes that stun santos has constituents and the nation. >> finally even his fellow republicans, to go from congress, taking the elevator, calm down, calm down. you guys got a lot of guys, kremlin to be a headline or las vegas. that's what i want to do >> it. so unlike anywhere else in the world, vegas, the story of sin city premiere sunday, february 25, day ten, on alexis

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business with freelance ai experts fibers >> manu raju on capitol hill. >> and this is cnn >> tiktok, time's running out for new york voters on long island and parts of queens to choose a new representative in congress. we are standing by for that the very first results in this high special election to replace a famously or infamously expelled member of the house. now a criminal defendant named george santos there would not be a special election tonight if it were not for the george santos saga manu

raju covered every moment of it. manu walk us through as many of the lies and allegations surrounding santos as you can squeeze into a package that doesn't last seven hours and that did lead to his her expulsion from the house. yeah. >> he >> weathered the storm for months and whether expulsion vote after expulsion vote. but at the end of the day, the criminal indictments on top of a damning house ethics report proved to be too much for republicans and democrats mr. santos. >> george santos left a historic legacy in a short time in congress, >> george santos is the mary magdalene of united states congress, just maybe not the legacy he would have wanted. he became the sixth member ever expelled from the chamber. and first to be expelled without being convicted of a crime or supporting the confederacy it all started with an unexpected rise in new york's third district. >> george santos, they pick up for the republican party.

>> a >> dramatic fall in light of the expulsion of the gentleman from new york. >> congress to fight until the end. >> i'm not going to sit here and continue can you asleep? debate my entire life before his election in 2022? few head ever heard that name george santos. and it might have stayed that way, if not for a bombshell a report about his background, a newly elected republican congressman from new york is under scrutiny this morning. major aspects of his resume are being called into question >> those seem to lie about virtually everything from his family. my grandparents survived the holocaust i love, my mom was a 911 survivor to his education >> a good prep school. >> i actually went to school on a volleyball scholarship. >> i put myself through college and got an mba from nyu to his work experience what you worked for goldman sachs >> a picture of a man who's public face was built on lies,

lies at me, his father, for late night comics, i know how i'll be remembered as margaret. >> i was the first openly gay jewish republican latino to walk on the moon. >> i don't consider the things i've said to be live there. when my great grandfather, when it didn't churchill, he would call them embellishments and a pariah in congress, he said embarrassment to our party's embarrassment. united states congress who's unpredictable and kept everyone guessing. >> you guys are staying down here all day. thanks. want to make sure you guys taken care of why don't i staffers baye, you look at the thing. >> i want him >> but its allies mounted. santos, admitted to fabricating some of his background. >> i always joke, i'm catholic, but i'm also jew >> ish. >> did i embellish my resume? >> yes, i did. and i'm sorry insecurity, stupidity. i don't know. look, i'm human. we make mistakes. i remain steadfast in rejecting calls for his resignation and was even

preparing to run again in 2024, the great day to be an american, it's a great day to be here republican and it's a great day to announce reelection or is sweeping indictment issued by the justice department makes no sense. 23 charges in total embezzlement, wire fraud, money laundering campaign finance violations. but list goes on yet santos survived not one, but two attempts to expel him. many members waiting for the house ethics committee before taking action. but when the ethics report was released, it was explosive. >> there were hotels and taxes the bill, and las vegas charged to his campaign makeup at the botox, even only fans charge to the campaign to onlyfans is a subscription based risky website. a website that santos war. he had never heard of in march for month after his purchases. >> i just discover what onlyfans was about three weeks ago. >> the damning report turn the

tide against santos in the house. >> this is bullying >> and when it led to another expulsion vote it wasn't landslide santos seemed relieved to reach an end of this saga in congress. tell me what this year has been like for you know, hell, hell in the most profound way, relishing his post expulsion fame, doing interviews with comedians. >> the lesson is to stop i'm backing you prices, but she can't. >> people want the content and making money, recording videos on the website cameo are happy, happy birthday >> or i >> can just do the happy birthday to you tonight. >> it's election is simply the latest chapter in this chaotic saga. a special election. with a chance to shrink the house gop majority to a razor thin margin. and possibly first referendum president biden in this crucial election year. >> wow, that was sung that was self until the for, joining us.

now, one of the most outspoken republicans in calling for the ouster of george santos, congressman mike lawler of new york. thanks so much for joining us congressman. first of all, as you know, better than most, there are a lot of house republicans reluctant to kick santos out of the congress because of the very narrow majority republicans have. >> if >> maasie pilip, republican does not win tonight will you regret calling for santos to be ousted? >> know it was the right thing to do. he was unfit to serve as a member of congress. he not only defrauded the voters he defrauded donors stealing money through shell companies, through the campaign. his treasurer pled guilty. a campaign staffer pled guilty to impersonate in kevin mccarthy's chief-of-staff. you have to have standards and ultimately he was allowed and afforded due process with the ethics committee, which is what

many of my colleagues we're concerned about myself, anthony d'esposito, nick lalota photo, marc molinaro. we called for him to resign immediately when these allegations first surfaced because from our own interactions, we thought there was something wrong with him but ultimately, when you see all the evidence that came out, putting aside all the litany of lies. but the criminal evidence that came out 23 felony counts. he was unfit to serve. so i stand by the decision to expel him sometimes you have to take a stand. that's bigger than party. and frankly, when you see what's going on, for instance, in the senate with bob menendez people like john fetterman are standing up and saying he needs to go. i think in congress, if we want to restore the reputation of this institution and give the american people something to believe in. we have to hold ourselves to a higher standard to >> taking into where we are

now, i mean, how much is what iv that we saw this the chaos that george santos, the back-and-forth you had with the g and the gop, how much is that affecting this race tonight? >> look, i honestly think not very much. i think when you see the poll interrupt because it's a suozzi is trying to say she's another george santos. we don't know anything about her past well, listen, voters know a lot about tom suozzi has been in office for 30 years. he's lost five times, and tonight he's going to lose a six because maasie is going to beat suozzi. and the reason is that the issues are on maasie side when you look at the border crisis, when you look at high crime in new york city, when you look at the affordability the crisis, new york leads the nation and outmigration for a reason, it has nothing to do with the weather and everything to do with the cost of living. and so voters in the third district are going to send a big message like they did back in 2011 when bob turner won the special election to replace anthony any wiener. this is

going to be a big message that voters are satisfied with the president. they're dissatisfied with the governor and the mayor of new york city. and they want change, change. and mazi pilip, an ethiopian born immigrant, who went to israel, served in the idf f came to america, mother of seven, served her local community, and unlike george santos actually is jewish she will do very well tonight in this district. >> how did it change your vetting process, meaning these voters are owed an explanation as to how george santos made it as far as he did, i have to assume going in this time i'm around. maybe it was a little more aggressive. how did you think about who you wanted to represent the district? >> well, chairman joe cairo, the nassau county republican chairman, runs one of the best county organizations in america and obviously i think he was deeply hurt by what happened i know that they had a very thorough vetting process in

this process to select maasie santos twice. so he did. and frankly, tom suozzi is part of the reason that he was unvetted. wait, wasn't it? you have one job? i'm candidate he admitted that they never did an oppo research book on george santos when he ran in 2020. and to me that's insane. i mean, let's i've been a consultant. i've been in elected official. you do oppo research on your opponent. this was a failure on the part of both parties to vet the candidate. both the republicans who failed to vet him prior, and the democrats who i guess, took for granted that they were going to win a seat that joe biden won by about eight points. and just thought it would be a breeze and frankly, the press, i mean, the national press and the new york press did not really do a good job. the local press actually he did, but i'm so azi is now making an argument that who is this person? she is not out in about as much as she could be. she waited until the

very last minute to really accepted debate. and so he's saying, look yet again, there's another perfect resume. but what do we know about this person lives >> with respect to debates. i mean, we can go through the litany of people people who only accept one debate or multiple debates. that's not really what voters hang their hat on. voters want to know what it is that you're going to do to help them. she has been working tirelessly across this district. i was there just a few weeks ago. we had over 1,000 people at the event in support of her. she had another rally just the other day. she's out in the district and she's serving as a local elected official. it's absurd to say that she's unknown. she's serving in her local community currently. tom suozzi is somebody that people know they've known him for 30 years. he was elected the mayor of glen cove's in 1993. he has lost five elections in large part because people know he's a phony. this is a man who literally bragged about kicking ice out of nassau county when

he was county executive and now says that he's going to do something about border security and the migrant crisis in new york. this is a man who voted 100% of the time with joe biden while a member of congress. and now says, oh, i don't want joe biden to come to nassau county. i don't want his support. are you kidding me? >> all right, congressman. thanks so much for being here. we appreciate it. voting ends in new york, just minutes from now and just in less than 12 minutes. and the strength of the republican majority in the house is very much on the line. and we are awaiting the first votes and clues about which party will prevail this evening. also ahead, we're going to talk with one of the biggest names in new york's congressional delegation, democratic congresswoman alexandria ocasio-cortez, also known as aoc, is standing by stay with me >> does not matter. so i've done a lot wrong. criminal, none. i don't want to thank that i was taking cash. >> lots, went back there >> governor rod blagojevich went down in a blaze of infamy

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>> voting ends just minutes from now in this high-stakes special congressional election. in the long island area of new york. the house seat previously held by ousted republican congressman george santos. that's him right there. remember him over two months after his historic expulsion from congress. many voters today looking to move past the santos scandal as they choose between the democrat, former us congressman tom suozzi and the republican nassau county legislative mazi pilip. close fight represent the third congressional district will determine if republicans hold onto this new york seat, expanding their slim seventh week seat advantage in the house or if democrats pull off a win that chips away at that gop majority as the polls are about to close any minute, let's go back to a key voting location. john berman is in carl place, new york. jauan. what's happening where you are

and what happens? next >> yeah. carl place high here, home of the frogs. it feels like last call. to be honest, here, jake, you can see the poll workers have already started to push the voting machines together. we did see one voter. they're getting his last minute ballot in if you are in carl place close by, carl place high in the next six minutes, you can show up. anyone in line at 09:00. we'll be able to vote, but i'll will tell you if there's no one here, they're going to shut this place down at 09:00 sharp, then the work begins here. again, every belt was cast her in most of the people you see here are either poll workers or poll watchers at this point once the ballots are cast here and you can look here, they are fed into these machines. and there are seven of these machines here at 09:00 once the polls close here, each one of these machines are going to close them up. they're going to take the paper ballots out and they will print what they call tape receipts in those, we'll have the results preliminary for your results from each one of these

machines. here's one, here's another. you can see they line the walls here, seven of them from each machine, we will get the results and they will be fairly telling just election day results, just election day results. and i can tell you on this machine, for instance 103 ballots, 113, i'm sorry, 113 ballots were cast today on this machine, 274 ballots were cast today. we'll get the results in about 15:20 minutes from each one of these machines. and it will be telling why because the election day vote here has been low compared to normal elections, high for a special election, but low especially in comparison to the early vote, early and mail-in vote. 80,000 people voted early or by mail. >> and the >> registration breakdown of the early votes, 46% democratic 32% republican. the rest are other. >> so you get a sense, the election day vote republicans will have to make up a massive pilip, the makeup significant ground in theory in the

registration in the election day vote in this nassau county, which is over the last few years traditionally, more and more republican. will she have an edge here from these machines in the election day vote? that is one of the things we'll be looking for if she doesn't have an edge or not. a big edge, it may it may give you a sign of where this night is headed, jake. >> all right. john berman, thanks so much. it's about to close down in that voting place. you don't have to go home. but if you can't stay there, john king were at the magic wall here this his new york's third congressional district. what are you gonna be looking for? >> he could stay there if you want to watch >> them counted. watch john berman, do some math on live television that be fun, a look john makes it very important. point number one, what is the final number, jake of the election day vote because we do know republicans view it more as a holiday. they tend to be more traditional investment election day. we see that all across the country if democrats had an advantage early voting think did the weather, did the fact that a special election did that combination to depress turnout, does that help the

democrat will see will be counting votes in just a matter of minutes. so you mentioned this is the district. let's zoom a little bit. one thing interesting about a jhanas in nassau county. let me just put the county lines up here. you see the line right here. this is queen's county. this is part of new york city. queens county is part of queen's, right. so you're on the edge of new york city. tom suozzi has to run it up here. and we'll get some early votes here, pretty early on. they're likely to beat when we get those early votes are likely to be lopsided democratic. that's good for tom suozzi. but remember as we've seen in recent elections, especially since covid there's more early voting. it tends to be disproportionately so that he needs that, but that doesn't mean oh, game over. we have to count throughout the night. so you'll see that early on, but that's queen's gallery. then you come over here. this is where john is on a nassau county. this is where basij pillow just simply has to not only compete in the early vote when we start to see that, but run it up, but it is a different district in the sense, as you move away from the city, you get more suburban. and that is the tug of war how is this district, madam, let me pull out a little bit. come back here. just in new york, right? i'm going to show you in the country, we

have so-called swing districts, right? >> these >> are districts, republican held districts the joe biden won, right? so you've watched this right here. let me come out and pull it out to the thing. here is this is this one right here is here. if you come back and look at the house of representatives now, write this one is here. we're looking at tonight. then if you pull it out, there are 17 of these. and so will this district tell us anything about these if you're the democrats? now in a presidential cycle, these are joe biden won these districts in 2020. republicans want them in 2022. so in the tug of war for the control of the house of representatives republicans are going for the narrow biden wins, but the democrats trying to take them back. so does this district in new york tonight tell us anything that you might apply because many of these districts, like this one, are those competitive suburban districts, higher education, higher income have been trending democratic, but we have seen signs republicans are starting to pull them back. that tug of war gets one vote tonight, as we count votes in a bit, congressman mike lawler, who we just interviewed,

republican from new york. he also comes from one of those biden he showed us. >> he comes from right here. you come up here and look how close it was. he beat a very important, remember sean maloney ran the democratic campaign committee. he was a member of the democratic leader, a key nancy pelosi ally in the house leadership. i look how close it was in the right, you mentioned mike lawler one of the reasons you want to get rid of george santos. i take him at his word. he thought george santos a disgrace to the institution. he also wanted to get rid of him because of the baggage george santos cause anybody who's running in a very competitive district does not want to. you, you have to do you want to do with your own race. you want to be answering questions about somebody else at the same time. so he wanted to get rid of george santos, number one for the integrity of the institution. i do take him at his word, but number two, those new york republicans who led the charge, jake, they understood george santos was an embarrassment. yes, but he was also a political liability. so again, in moments we'll get votes. this is all of the house districts you see here that biden won. tonight. we're focused on this one right down here. begins in the city stretches out to long island. jake >> all right

>> voting ends just moments from now, three seconds. look at that in the contentious fight to replace ousted republican george santos in the us house of representatives. them here is our key race alert it's too early to call the special election in new york, surf rational district. we'd democrat tom suozzi and republican mazi pilip. we watched the results come in. remember the outcome tonight? we'll expand or shrink the gop's narrow majority in the house. it will affect republicans ability to push through legislation. are democrats ability to block pocket publicans currently have 219 seats versus 212 for the democrats will see how those numbers change in the hour ahead, let's check in with our correspondents now, who are on long island covering the candidates. cnn's miguel marquez is in woodbury, new york at the headquarters so the democratic candidate, former congressman tom suozzi, we go, what are you hearing from the suozzi campaign about turnout and expectations >> a surprisingly, their sense of the expectation tonight is

very, very positive. i saw tom suozzi earlier today. he said that because of the heavy snowfall early in the day that the numbers were down and most likely that was bringing down republican voters. and it's not clear that that has changed at all. want to show you as the party is ending for john berman, the party here at the suozzi headquarters is starting to pick up we also spoke to jay jacobs, who's the head of the nassau democratic party and the state party party. he says, the numbers are looking exceptionally good for them, much better than they were in 2022. he did say the one thing that they are touching for in this first data dump that we are expecting to come very soon are those unaffiliated voters and how they broke the number of democrats from early votes absentee and day of and day-of are favoring the democrats, but it's unclear how many democrats are voting for republicans. so that first dumping tell them that. and it will also tell him how unaffiliated voters are

breaking. and they expect they will have a seem to expect, they'll have very good news tom suozzi, his campaign say that he expects to speak here at around 11:00 p.m. tonight, perhaps a little before expressing a sense of confidence, they'll have a result by them. >> jake said, cnn's miguel marquez and woodbury, new york scott to glen cove's on new york right now is shimon prokupecz is at a voting center. shimon, what's going on? they counting the actual votes now they are jake and i want to show you behind me these are the machines were folks have been submitting their ballots to and now they're starting to print. you can see here mills the why don't you come in closer here? we can see there they are starting and to print the results here on what's going to happen is once that is printed, they're going to announce, they're going to say out loud what the results are about 566 people voted here according to the latest count from the machines here and the doors

have just closed a couple of last-minute folks it's walked in, they voted. and now we are in the process of watching them as this process takes place here, as they start to tabulate these votes, this is another derek three tables here this is another table here. same process. they're going through all the steps that they need to as they begin to print and start to count these votes. and then there's another one here at the end as well. so the process is underway in any minute here now, we should know what the results are here at this voting sayyed, which has been relatively steady all day despite the snow, it's been people have been coming in if they've been voting, it's been a pretty easy the process. and they've been leaving. i also want to show you that you'll see there's people here. these are actually representatives from the different parties or republican party the dam kradic party, democrats here. and so they will be also counting the

votes and marking them down and then reporting it to the leaders of the parties here. >> we're going to come right back here. shimon, we're going to come right back to you we're going to go to john berman right now, who's in carl place and get some numbers from him. john, what's going on where you are >> all right, this is the machine, this is election districts 47 in carl place. these are my friends howard and becky, who've been working this machine. we have some results from the tape that was just printed out, correct? >> suozzi 53 mazi, a total of 117 >> okay. so that was 117 votes for moscow 170 votes total ones, 117 for maasie philip, 53 for tom suozzi. so you can see that machine by almost a two to one over a two-to-one margin. here in nassau county and carl place went for maasie pilip, i believe in this machine we're also getting results will be walk over here to my brian, who's been working this

machine this machine >> the tape is just coming out of this machine now good. >> here we go. mike is going as reading out. my sweet lord, look at that >> there's a host 274 okay. >> all right. >> interesting. so suozzi pulled out 87 votes. his opposition, mezzi philippe, 171 rhonda republican, and then 15 as conservative. >> okay maasie phillip, 171. tom suozzi, 87. that's true. >> of the >> seven machines here that tell a similar clare story, jake, so you can see the election day vote breaking, at least here in coral place from these two machines, heavily for mazi pilip all right, john berman, fascinating stuff. and let's bring you the key race alert right now, because we have actual votes coming in. let's take a look with 6% of the estimated vote and tom

suozzi, the democrat, has 65.1% of the vote masih pilip, republican has 34.9% of the vote. tom suozzi was 7,586 votes. that's roughly 3,500 votes ahead a maasie pill up with just over 4,000 votes. remember, this is really early and john was telling us that he expected a lot of those votes were going to come in from parts of queens county which tends to be democratic. and also this would be early vote, which would tend to be democratic. so this doesn't mean anything. in particular, what we just saw, those actual numbers with maasie behind tom suozzi, right? it means that suozzi is but based on that doing roughly what he would need to do there, but that doesn't mean it's let me take off the county sign here, so you get the full district. right. the reason you saw 0-0, there's because it had the county separate to make that distinction. but here's where you are right now. so you're the democrat tom swap how's your head with 65% of the vote? that looks like a wow, but to your point, these are early

votes. that's why they read accounts so fast. there have already and already in and they haven't tabulated, they can't they just can't release that until after the election. they haven't counted there go book the new york's one of those states where you can count early votes ahead of time, right? we just can't release them, not some states. you're not even allowed to count them until after the vote. i paul's chloride and so i put up the county line here. i just want to make this distinction. so this disappears because we don't count votes by kinda we counted by the district. i just want to show you though what we're talking about. all the votes are coming from from queens county, which is the predominantly overwhelmingly democratic era of the district. it gets more republican, more competitive as you move out through the suburbs. so let's just take this off so you see it again. so it's shows you that these, this is the seat you see the whole district blue right now. the reason i'm doing this as i just want to show that all the votes we have are from inside queens kathie, so right. so yes, i'm just one note. we because we saw votes coming in from where berman was in carl place. that is in the more republican part because those votes were overwhelmingly more than two to one for maza,

a masih pilip, right? right. it was a modest number of votes from those couple of machines. john berman is out here in nassau county, shimon, you said you're going back to him when he gets in. he's up here in glencoe, right up here, potter, nassau county. so when when we go live to these polling places and our reporters are right there on the scenes. the value of harry reporters at the scene and the local officials read out those votes, then they have to get put through the tabulation and released by the party, and then they'll show up in the matter. so sometimes we get numbers that are not yet officially reported. so as i said, we have nothing right now. if you look at our vote, if you decide to conduct the whole district, we don't have anything from nassau county yet in the system that they you saw them counting those votes on light, there's just a process they've, they tripled, check the math, they put them into the system and we'll get them. so this is again 6% of the estimated vote that can fluctuate based on election day turnout. but if you're suozzi short, you've got 65% of the early vote in queens. the question is, is that their target? i assume they wanted to get two-thirds of more of that vote in the predominant democratic area. and now we wait not only if the election day vote to commit, but there's also early votes out here in nassau county. it's just queens county was ready to

go more quickly, but every vote counts were underway and it's roughly a pool if we believe about 160,000 people voted both leading up to today and today. let's go back to glen cove's to shimon prokupecz. can shimon, what can you tell us about actual numbers? coming in from glen cove's new york >> so two of the tables here have reported the numbers and what we have is two well two for suozzi and 142 for maasie pilip. now waiting for the tabulations from the third table so again, we should have that here any minute. they just posted it, but i can't show it to you, jake, but i can read it to you it says suozzi nine the eight. and then it says under the republican ticket, mazi pilip 92 and under the conservative ticket 12. so those are the totals here on this third table. suozzi 98.

and then 92 who and 12 for mazi pilip >> so in maasie is running >> about 1104. yeah and mars is running on both at which is not uncommon in new york. she's running on two different party tickets, right? the conservative party and the republican party ticket. so you combine those and she has 100.104 votes. is that right from that from that one district or that one voting machine >> yeah. i believe it's 10414. that's correct. jake, one o4 from this third table, that plus additional to the 142 from the other two voting districts here okay. >> john king, did you get those numbers or you want you want him to repeat it weekend and the repeat it again. >> that's waiting to see them as they feed it because we have seen some very modest, very modest change in the vote total. but phillips closing the gap just a little bit and that's what's going to happen as the smaller, precise start to report, as they start to

come in. and again, earlier i showed you this is just to show the county breakdown here. we're waiting for more votes to come in out here. but the danger in this is that when you go to the county it shows zero, so i don't do this that often because i want to confuse people at home to see them at stacey zero boats and they see a lot of votes. just want to make the distinction that that big early tranche of votes were just showing people that all the votes so far are from the queens county part of the congressional district. but most of the congressional district is >> you come out here now we're waiting and we'll see more of those votes tabulate as they come in. so that's probably the last time i go back because it does confuse people when it goes back to zero here. and then all of a sudden they see 15,000, 16,000 votes. but when you see shimon and john berman on the ground again, the reading half the machines totals there at then there's reporters to the party than their fed into the system and they will start to post up as we go but through it. but 9%, but the value is, you see, it's what, almost 12 minutes after the hour, we're getting votes are counted pretty quickly. >> yeah. so we checked in with

miguel marquez, who was at suozzi campaign headquarters. let's go to cnn's lauren fox now who is at maasie pilip headquarters. she's the republican. she's an east meadow, new york out lauren what is the thinking inside phillips camp? what are you hearing about voter turnout, any goals they tried to reach? >> what's the story >> yeah, republicans overall are watching this race really closely. and jake, they're nervous about the fact the turnout was loaded. a there was a snowstorm in this district. >> obviously that is having an impact. how many republicans they were able to get to the polls you heard from maasie pill earlier today, she was encouraging voters to get out on the road saying it was safe to get out on the roads and telling them but they needed to call and get a ride if they were uncomfortable because republicans know that their voters vote on election day. that is why it's so important. for them to have turnout and when they're looking at the fact that turnout just wasn't what they wanted it to be, that makes them nervous. i talked to one republican operative who told me it would really suck to lose this race because of a

snow day, but their argument is that's totally a possibility given the fact that weather was not on their side today. now there could be a number of reasons, right? why republicans are losing it doesn't all have to do with the snow, but i do think that that perspective is really interesting republicans also spent money to get snowplows it's out today, the congressional leadership fund, a powerful super pac, spent money to make sure the roads were clear. i think that shows you how important turnout is for republicans he's today and why they were so concerned. so they're nervous. people are starting to show up at this election party. they're hopeful that maasie pillar is gonna be able to pull this off. but obviously they are watching those numbers really closely given the fact that they felt like they were doing well in terms of the pacing on early vote, they're concerned about what the numbers were today. >> all right. >> this fall okay, so we appreciate it. we're going to come back to you in a second. both parties, of course, have poured millions of dollars in tonight's special election. democrats more than republicans. we should note that it is a clear indication of the high stakes of the ray

cnn's political director, david chalian, is digging into all of this down. david yeah, jake, i know there were spilled this morning, but there have been a blizzard of television ads in this race for quite some time. and this was another place where demo the crowds had an advantage over republicans. take a look here at the spending you see, and we're talking about the democratic candidate, the d triple c, the house committee that is electing democrats, the super pac, the whole democratic universe told that about $13.8 million of advertising compared to the whole republican candidate campaign. and super pac universe at $8.1 million. so big disparity there in ads bending. take a look, jake, at how the ad spending broke down by topic, immigration, foreign away, had the most money behind it. 12.4 million went to immigration. and by the way, that number, it's split about two-thirds of that 12.4 million was republican advertise how's it going immigration only about

a third was democratic advertising and immigration. the rest there you see law enforcement at 5.6 million abortion at 4.5 million, and it goes those down from there. but clearly immigration front and center in this race, anderson there, chalian, thanks so much. in fact, let's show one of the ads because both candidates were running obviously, a lot of ads on immigration. that was the biggest one. let's show a pilip add hitting suozzi on immigration biden open-border leads to violence, right here. >> i support the president's agenda hundred percent. >> tom suozzi, soft on illegal we'll immigration, but tough on taxpayers >> i think a lot of democrats were thinking ahead of time, perhaps that abortion would be the issue that would bring people to the polls here, it clearly seems to be immigration yeah, i think we've seen what's happened on the border has become such an hsu and it's not just because, you

know, obviously new york is not a border place and it's not something they've had to worry about, but they feel >> voters feel like it's, it's happening in their backyard, especially with the event that just happened last week in times square that you were referencing earlier and i do think one piece of context is important here based on what congressman lawler's at early we are saying that he tried to kick ice out. previously, congress or tom suozzi, that was in a moment where he's explained that, saying that was because the ice officers pulled their guns on nassau county police officers actually delay the ice agents. did and he's someone who resisted calls actually to defend ice when that was a popular slogan among progressive democrats. but he has walked, walked to this issue really carefully and he has criticized president biden on it. he said that the border should be temporarily closed and you've just seen how democrats are trying to run on this. and we'll see if, if it provides, let's take a look at suozzi is add that he ran a defending his own record on immigration the southern border is 2000 miles away, but the migrant crisis has landed right in our own backyard in the past, i've worked with

>> republican peter king on a compromised solution the migrant problem. i'll work with anyone to get it done >> that that had right there. plus another one on the ice issue, kaylin a. you referenced where he shows a clip of himself on fox news touting that he's one of the few democrats willing to stand up for ice shows. you just how bad this immigration and border issue is for democrats in swing districts. they say, he sounds like a republican and it's going to be and i'm like, that's a bad thing. well, it's a good thing, but it's, it's i'm just saying it's going to be that way in suburban swing in districts all over the country, which is, it's amazing because that's not where the energy of the democratic progressive web does. >> i'm gonna, i'm gonna tell you, we're going to be able to fight republicans to a standstill on the issue for a couple of reasons. first of all, republicans gin this up. there abusing human beings, shipping them up to blue states for political purposes and then won't help them and so now you have given us the opportunity to show that the republican party is plus, i think issue doesn't care about the people and democrats are going to be tough on the border and also care about the people. this is not going to be the layup that republicans thinking if you'll see that tonight, i think that

the issue of helping them is trumped and a lot of these places by the issue of can't we just shut down the border until we can figure out which tried to republicans want here. this is my point. i don't know what the republican party has begging, crying, saying, please. we did something about the border tariffs is going to come up here. they're going to kill everybody. and democrats said, you know what? maybe you're right. let's close the border and republicans backflip. now, they're the ones running not to close the border and democrats on the right side of the issue would be interesting to me is whether or not i mean, i am listening to you, scott say, people are concerned about the issue, but the question is, what do they think the solution is? and i think this particular district is going to task whether or not the solution for wealthy suburban, mostly white, but in this district also latino and asian voters is the solution to shut down the border or is it something else? and i don't know that the answer in the suburbs of new york, even to the same problem, is going to be it's going to that or it

might be something else. maybe it's closer to what tom suozzi is selling. i just think this particular district might be asking for solutions of a different nature. >> we're going to we're going to go back to jake in dc. jake. thanks, anderson >> joining us now is one of the most high profile members of the new york congressional delegation, democratic congress so i'm in alexandria ocasio-cortez, also known as aoc. thank you so much for being here. appreciate it. >> do we have the latest votes were don't have those yet. okay. so let me just get dive into the interview. so president biden won this district by eight points in 2020. now, congressman and former congressman tom suozzi, a democrat, is trying to get it back. but he's distanced himself from biden. did want his endorsement. he didn't want him to campaign with them do you think that's okay if that's what swing a battleground district, democrats need to do to win. >> well, i think we army prerogative is to win the house back. i know that representatives swat former representative suozzi, he knows

his his district. he knows his territory but i also think we can acknowledge the fact that we don't have to be afraid to be democrats either. as you mentioned, president biden won this seat by eight points. that is not one or two or three. that is a significant margin. and we also can run up the numbers with an enormous amount of enthusiasm, especially in a special election like this, which is really about a base race between the two parties. getting out your most enthusiastic voters, especially on a snowstorm like this. and that's what messages on everything from abortion rights to making sure that we're having just solutions and comprehensive solutions on immigration that don't also have to just be on the defense. >> so hell maasie pilip, republican running, has tried to paint suozzi as a member of the squad, which is your progressive group in their debate, suozzi distance himself from you and the squad. he said for you to suggest that i'm a member of the squad is about as believable as you being a member of george santos is

volleyball team unquote. >> what what do you >> make of her trying to tar him as a member of the squad? >> i mean, i i would agree with with tom suozzi, the idea that we are are, you know, that were part of the same kind of cadre in congress is incorrect. it's wrong. but that doesn't mean that we're not on the same team. we're part of a democratic coalition that's a broad base, but i think it also shows that mausi's desperate. you don't go for those enormous reaches that are frankly so laughable especially to the people of queens and long island who know tom suozzi, he had 80% name id going into this race to claim something like that in a backyard that knows him is it really shows that they're reaching that they're pretty desperate to tried to land a punch there. well, the >> way he's been campaigning is he sounds like a conservative queens or belong island democrat. it's what it's like. you see sounds conservative on the border.

>> what do you make >> of that and what do you make of the border issue as the last week has has played out, and republicans originally demanded border be added to the foreign aid bill. and then they didn't want the border compromise that probably was too conservative for you. i would think. and now they're even rejecting to vote on the foreign aid bill. talk about the the border part of it. and then we'll talk about forehand. >> well, i mean, it's it's a gamble, but also this district is very complex. it's right here in our backyard, new york city. >> you >> have a district that spans parts of new york city in queens, but also reaches all the way out to nassau county there are parts of this district that are quite conservative and parts of this district that are very, very progressive. and so to be able to thread that needle and try to achieve turnout if it's a very challenging it's a very challenging you know, feet to be able to accomplish. now, i

do think that we need to be careful to not de-mobilize parts of the democratic coalition, especially young voters first, voters of color because you have to run up your numbers in places like queen's in order to help buttress against any evenness in nassau county if the bill that passed the senate early, early this morning, $95 billion to for aid to ukraine, israel in taiwan, if that were to be >> voted on in the house, which is a big f because it doesn't sound like the speaker wants to do it. but the democratic leader hakeem jeffries, your fellow new york democrat, he wants that to come to the four. if it came to the floor, would you vote for him? >> i don't think i could bring myself to vote for it. i think that the provisions in the bill from not just the border or not just the provisions that we see across the board, but especially when it comes to the foreign aid, the knee, the increased restrictions on unrwa funding, the un refugee assistance funding, the complete lack of humanitarian aid especially on the heels of

this invasion on rafah i think we are at a point where we have to do something to protect innocent people, innocent lives of palestinians and gaza. and i'm very concerned current about the netanyahu netanyahu administration's lack of restraint and their stated intent and lack of regard for saving innocent lives. >> i asked senator chris about the foreign aid bill, and i'm going by memory here i'm not at one, but my memory isn't always perfect and i think he said that there was $10 billion in aid for humanitarian aid for gaza. >> we'd have to see, but as it stands, the unrwa is the number one central corridor for humanitarian assistance to enter, to enter gaza. and so to see how it would be structured, this is something that is i think of prime concern and to also block off the main

corridor, corridor of humanitarian aid is a major, major move from the us congress, especially that it's predicated on allegations that are still being investigated. but as those investigations continue to go on, the basis of them do seem to be eroding. and so we have to ask ourselves, why, why? would we do that? >> so before you go, there have been a lot of questions, especially since that special counsel report last week that cleared president biden of any wrongdoing legally, but certainly impugned his memory. and this comes neck came on the heels of just a few days before him talking about conversations he had in 2021 with world leaders who would died several years before that, he was confusing world leaders. tom suozzi told a local news station when this question was raised about biden quote the bottom line is he's old. i mean, he's 81 years old. he wouldn't say suozzi whether biden would be the democratic nominee, the party convention in august do you have any concerns about his age? do you

have any concerns about whether or not he should be the nominee? >> i mean, i think right now when it comes to the president's age, folks are talking about how he's 81, but we have to look at first of all, donald trump is around the same age as my 777 years old. they could have gone a high school together and beyond that, donald trump has 91 indictments and what i know, who i'm going to choose is going to be the one on most successful presidents in modern american history that plan that passed the inflation reduction act, that goddess the american rescue you plan that ensured that we could pass one of the largest federal investments in climate change in us history. and as far as we go as we know virtually all the filing deadline deadlines have passed. there's already been a primary voters have outright rejected dean phillips, president biden is going to be the democratic nominee, and hopefully he'll be reelected as president the united states. >> are you worried about at all about these challenges from the left? jill stein, cornell west,

i don't know where rfk a few in your left, right, or center, but there is a real fear that they could take votes away from biden. >> that is real, that is real, especially in states it's like michigan, pennsylvania critical swing states. but we need to understand what we are staring down in this country. if donald trump is elected president, united states we do not know if there will be a verifiable next election that has integrity. he already tried to, we saw on january 6, he tried to overturn the results of a presidential election by force by inciting a riot. and i i think we need to be very, very realistic about the grave grave impacts of a donald trump election. it is not a joke. it is not a game. >> we need >> to protect our democracy chrissy and ideally it's going to be on progressive values, democratic congresswoman alexandria ocasio-cortez, always good to have you. thank you so much is still very early in the special congressional election with the strength of the the republican majority in the house on the line, we're standing by for more votes to

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alert for you. find folks. >> let's take a look at what's going on with 30 10% of the estimated vote in cobb former congressman tom suozzi, the democrat is ahead and 61.8% of the vote. he has 15,248 votes of about 50 the 800 votes ahead of the republican maasie pilip. that's with 13% of the vote in right now, john king, what is going on where you are aware of? oh, i see, like more votes are coming in from nassau county. you can't sneak that bind me. i saw it. >> it's good when you walk over that's observer let's stay the district wide first that we'll get into that, but yes, we are starting to see more votes come in. now, if you're tom suozzi, you've opened up an early healthy lead nosy at home. that's what you want. you've you'd rather be on top. that's about where roughly around 13% of the vote. so we've got a long way to go. so you see the whole district here filled in blue. i just want to split it by county to make the point. you were just talking with the congresswoman. this district has a base here in new york city, sort of the eastern most part of new york city, queens county, queens tom suozzi is getting 62% of the

vote to 38% of the vote. if you round that up there, and this is where the big vote totals are so far. just remember these numbers. he's got almost 50 10,000 votes. she's got nine. then you come over to nassau county. we're just very early in the count in nassau county, 709 votes when you match it all up, 650, 7% per 43% for suozzi, but it does tell you, we're starting to get, but you just saw numbers change right there. the numbers just changes were here. so the votes are starting to come in from nassau county and it's pretty obvious to challenge as the votes come in here. number one, how high is the turnout? number two, if he's getting 62%, we're up to about 80% there. we think, right? so that's dropped a bit, but he stayed above 60% of he's getting above 60% closer to 63, 64% of the vote here, than simple math, she's got a match it and run it up here and she needs to turn out this is a populated urban area. the urban area of the district. she needs in this big suburban area for turned out to be up in our correspondent that was a concern raised by our correspondents, both shimon and john berman on the ground,

republicans do ten traditionally to honor voting on election day. they think it's more cool, traditional, devoted election day. did we do they turn out, did they get there very early, but we think we're about 1% in the nassau county part of it. so we had a ways to go, but if the democrat has a giant base in the urban area, the district, the republican better run it up in the suburbs as those votes come in, in the time ahead. and that's when you pull out to the whole district. there's we are about 14%. >> so the two factors here that what i'm hearing from you and from our correspondents on the ground are hey geography that suozzi does better closer to manhattan and pilip mazi, pilip does better. the farther out you get. but b also, when people voted, because john berman said that about 80,000 people voted before election day. and democrats appear to be winning those at least according to party pre-registration, who voted that means 80,000 people voted today. and that would mean that we would the pilip maasie pilip

would hope that she matches that on the other side in terms of the proportion of republicans versus democrats. >> and to do that, she's going to have to pull people back to the republican fold. voters who if you go back to the george w bush days before that, ron reagan, george hw bush days. george pataki wondering, has governor days, suburban republicans, affluent people with college education, upper middle-class, to even higher than that, who were republicans? who became democrats in the obama and the biden years in there. some of it is running from donald trump a lot, a lot of suburban republicans ran from donald trump. can she pull them back to that point just to make the point in this district come on back, come out for me here. what am i doing here? doesn't work. well. we'll come back to that a little bit, but this is, this runs the education level in this district, runs about one-and-a-half times the national average, the percentage of people with a bachelor's degree or higher more than one-and-a-half times the national average, the percentage the income median income of this district. so can

she get people who come back to the county line? xi's warning right here now, but it's 1,000 votes but can she keep a keep this red and keep it at this this is where you've mentioned your interview with the congress republican congressman and the democratic congresswoman, joe biden, carried this district by eight points was 2022, a blip. >> the new >> york democrats had a problem drawing the map. it was the midterm election. was that the blip or are the suburbs starting to trend back to the republicans because she hold it, that's one of the questions tonight that's the big mystery we're going to see and we expect more votes to be reported very soon we'll see if tom suozzi is lead holds or if masih pilip >> closes the gap in his high-stakes better? >> while election, our coverage >> continues right after this >> sunday. laura coates examines the federal criminal charges against former president trump. is it going to be >> difficult to meet this burden of proof? >> how strong is the government's case? the whole story with anderson cooper

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lot, there are still a lot of votes the count. now, let's go to kristen holmes now to the trump factor, how it is and is not playing out in the special election. cnn's kristen holmes is in west palm beach, florida covering bring the trump campaign and kristen donald trump, he's pretty much stayed away from this race. in fact, it wasn't until a few days ago that ms pilip acknowledged that she voted for donald trump's. she did so reluctantly >> that's right. jake mazi pilip, pilip eager to avoid talking thing about donald trump and donald trump and his team were more than happy to avoid wading into this race if you'll remember back in 2020 to former president trump tried to unsuccessfully the to wield political power with a number of endorsements that ended up losing in the general election. that republicans, a lot of blame on donald trump for those lack closer results in those midterms they want to avoid that now, particularly as donald trump is seems to be

headed towards the nomination, i talked to a senior adviser tonight who said that they are being much more a cautious about who they given doors since do what races they wade into. and this is part of that, that is not assured thing. and they believe that if maasie philip is who's that donald trump would be blamed if he did endorsers. they want him saying out of this race. now, do want to point out one thing. now, donald trump might've stayed out of the district, but the district didn't totally stay away from donald trump. there was a notable guest at trump's victory party in new hampshire, a disgraced congressman george santos, was dancing in the vowed and son hello, rating. when he won the new hampshire primary >> all right. kristen holmes. thank you for not showing a clip of that. i appreciate it. joining me now, one of the new york republicans who voted to oust george santos that's congresswoman nicole malliotakis, who represents nearby staten island. thank you so much for being here. quick question then i want to let jeff have the second question, which is the same question i asked congressman lawler what if suozzi wins? what if the

democrat wins? will you regret? you're push to get george santos out of congress. >> look, we had to get rid of george santos. what he did was wrong. it was unethical, was illegal and we had done the right thing. we had sent it to the ethics committee. we asked for them to thoroughly investigate it they did and they came back and was able to show us the receipts that he ended deed was using his campaign donations and appropriately even stole from a fellow colleague credit card number and was charging things. so that was that has to be passed us. we need to move forward. it would be disappointing if we didn't hold the seat, obviously but there's always november i do believe that it's still early in the night. i think that the numbers that you're seeing are because queen's has come out strong early. we've always expected that we weren't going to win the queen's park. remember, they're almost done now queen's is almost all counted and the rest is going to be nassau county. i think it was last i checked was 2% only in for nassau county where you expect mazi do very well. and so i think the night is still

early and she can win this race and if she does win this race tonight, what do you think this will tell us about former president trump's role in the suburbs that will too much be read into this as >> christmas saying he's largely stay out of this. she did not even say she voted for him. so can you really read a lot into the outcome of the selection vis-a-vis trump. >> i think this election is less about trump and more about what's happening in new york. i mean, people really upset with what's happening. this, this migration crisis that's happening, crime, the assault of those police officers by individuals that many people believe should not be here. >> that's that is all part of the issue. the fact that new york doesn't cooperate anymore with ice to tina request to deport criminals. that's a factor here as well. i do think that if you look at nassar counting how it's trended over the last two cycles the public and they flipped everything, they flipped everything from the county executive to the county district attorney, to the county legislature and won a bunch of words. local little town supervisor seats as well. so i think that's telling it that nassau county is trending very much republican how about

those other key new york races though, is he's still a drag on the ticket in the fall or too soon to say, i don't think so. i think things have changed significantly. i think there's a lot of buyer's remorse for president biden if if you look at my district, for example, i mean stemming trump did when my district but what i will say is he's very much in the tank president biden. i mean, they probably a 33% approval rating last we checked and that is not good. i think overall, and i think a lot of things have changed, right? president biden has had the opportunity to govern, and i think there's a lot of people in these districts that are not happy they're paying more in terms of food costs, they're seeing the border crisis continue. its now come to new york. they're still upset with crime in the bail law that the governor put in place where she almost lost last year. so i think there's a lot of things that are happening locally gully, which is why new york trended different than a lot of other parts in the country where we want a lot of seats in new york where we were losing and other seats that we thought it was going to be a red wave and we didn't win those areas yes. yeah. no, that's very true, congresswoman. but you of

course, are talking about a lot of the issues that are driving voters in new york. you live there and you've been watching what's happening in new york three. >> but >> talk about it a vis-a-vis what you do here in washington and how is there anything that you see trending there besides immigration that gives you pause as a republican in a very, very narrow majority will look, i think right now what you're seeing we have that narrow majority in the senate obviously is split. so everything that you're seeing happening, whether it's avoiding the default whether it's avoiding the shutdowns, whether it's making sure that we pass the ndaa, which we did now, we're going to go on to pfizer and some other stuff. it's all gonna be done in a bipartisan manner. i mean, the bottom line is, you're going to see as you've been seeing the sheer far-right, far-left vote against he's things. and the vast majority of the middle over 300 members vote for these things. and so you're going to see, i think more bipartisanship actually, as a

result, when it comes to ghani's things don't like just like the tax plan that we passed last week that expanded the child tax credit that reinstated some of those winning provisions for the economy for our small businesses rely on the r&d tax credit, those things, though, that was done in a bipartisan way, bicameral, right? so i think anything you're going to see for the remainder of the year has to be assault while it would a vote tomorrow on the rule, we'll see. but i think 2025 year for assault i think there is a problem there, but 2025 is the year where the salt provision expires. i think that's where the new york members are going to have their most leverage to get something done for our constituents. >> salt, of course, a reference to state and local taxes. it's a thing that will go into that later >> malliotakis. thank you so much for stopping by release it as more votes coming, how are they? the candidates feeling about the rates right now we're going to check into the campaigns and standby for more numbers on this suspenseful special election night. that's all ahead.

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congressional race, the special election in new york's third democrats, thomas suozzi, as 61% of the vote, 50,592 votes. that is 5,615 votes ahead a republican, mazi pilip, 39 of the vote. i will remind you, it is early yet it's only 14% of the vote. and we did can expect democratic votes to come in more heavily early on. let's check in with john berman now, he has now moved to the nassau county board of elections minneola, new york. john, what is happening in mineola >> to be it's all happening. first of all, jake in minneola were at the board of elections in minneola. >> all the >> votes from nassau county are coming here to this loading dock outside. you can see that car are pulling up right there that car we believe well, each one of the cars that does pull

up here, there have been quite through that are coming up. they hold all the voting materials for each of the election districts which you might know is precincts from around nassau county. each one of the cars is unloaded with those voting materials. okay. here we go. you're seeing this. you can see right there those red pouches on top there, those red pouches hold the flash drives. remember i was at those voting machines earlier in carl place. each one of those red pouches has a flash drive from one of the voting machines. the yellow bag holds absentee ballots that were delivered to each of the polling places today will walk in once they arrived here at the loading dock, they come in here. this looks like a cage, like an evidence from from the wire or something, but it's behind this cage where all of these flash drive pouches are scanned in. right there. you can see them being scanned in like at a supermarket checker. that's to make sure that each one of the machines produces a flash drive that can then come here and be counted. the pouches are then opened. you

can see the flash drives being taken out in some cases, and then the flash drives themselves are taken into a room in the back where we are not allowed. most of the people here are not allowed. that's where the officials here in nassau county put the flash drives into the computer and count the votes themselves at last count, we had 25 or so, and i imagine we're up over 50 now of these flash drives. so they're getting up there terms of the votes coming in here to nassau county, loading them into the computer and then they will be counted. what we're going to try to do is get an early read if we can, on what the actual votes are, jake, but it is interesting seeing the problem he says at work here with the votes literally coming in here to nassau county. >> fascinating stuff. john berman also wearing a red krevas as a style homage to jordan santos, perhaps john king. let us know more about the votes coming in where they're coming from, who they're going to very quick point. i've made it before. i want to make it again those were amazing people do the work of democracy. there are people

in our politics, including a former president to pummel them all the time. they're doing their work. i don't know if they're democrats. i don't know if the republicans, they're counting votes and they're doing it the way it's supposed to be done on man. where are we right now? so we're at 61% for tom suozzi to 39% hamas pilip, wherein about 14% of the vote. so it's a special election. so that's an estimate right now. so if you're looking at this and even with us since we started counting votes 55 minutes ago after the polls close you said, oh, he's above 60% for the whole hour now, pretty much so that must mean he's going to win. let's slow down. let's slow down. number one, we're early. we've got 80% of the vote plus still to count number to remember, we talked about this earlier. this district is divided, this is queens county new york city. i'll pull this out here. this is queens, new york city. tom suozzi is running 62% of the vote. they're running it up in the urban new york city part of the district, like a democrat has to do, but she's getting 45th. just look at that voto 15 82% report. i just want go back two

years ago now this is a special election, so the numbers won't exactly match up turnout tonight is not gonna be the same as the 2022 midterms. we don't expect it to be anyway, but in the 2022 midterms. okay. robert zimmerman was the democratic candidate. he won queens county with 52%. so tom suozzi right now is overperforming robert zimmerman, who lost. so tom suozzi, that's good. you're over-performing alaska, but just look at the total 48 close to 49,000 boats when you add all that up, their cologne and nassau county, this is where george santos, won the seat because he went out here more than four times, as many votes were cast in nassau county than in queens county. part of the district. so come back to where we are tonight. we're only 1% here, right philip is wanting 57% to 43%, but so suozzi is winning 62%. but we're almost done counting in queens, right? we're almost up, not almost done, but you're most of the way at 80%, then you come here. we're just getting started. so you're at 80%, you're just getting started. there is plenty of time, plenty of votes out here in a much larger, more populated part of the district

two years ago four times as many votes cast in this part of the district. right now, we only have 1,000 votes and some change. >> so can you go back to queens county for one second? okay. so 82% of the vote in and it's roughly 24,020, 5,000 votes. so we expect that's going to be a little bit over 30,000 votes will be from queens county. >> and >> we think based on what john berman told us earlier, than about 160,000 people voted all right so it really the question is just what that huge chunk, how many of them voted and they're all in nassau county, they would be an acid again in the 2022 midterm election, more than four times, not quite five times as many more than four, but well in excess of four times more votes cast here than here. so the question is, does that hold true tonight? if it does, and she stays if again, this is 1,000 votes and change. so she's 57%. if she stays at 57%, and although there's enough votes out there, well,

if the guess what, she's got to come back and pass, i'm not saying that's going to happen. i'm just saying that because we are so early in the count and john just showed where he was. he's emitting ola, which is right down in here. forgive me if you live in minneola, if i'm an inch or half an inch off there. but mineola is right about down here. that's where the board of elections is. you saw that happening right there. the scanning, bringing everything and that's the integrity election process. but guess what, also tells us now that we see them coming in, you put the flash drive in the machine. account can come pretty quickly once they have them in that central counting location takes a while to get in there. you see the old mode of transportation, right? you drive them, you drive them and you get them there. but i would expect quite quickly the nassau county numbers, the nassau county pieces of this are going to change pretty quickly. we're in 1,050, you 1059 votes. that's going to change pretty quickly. and when it does, that's when we will know. does that change? >> yeah. >> what can i ask? can you tell me about this congressional district? can you tell me who they voted for for president in 2,020.20, 16 i know the congressional districts changed the district change, and especially the new york city maps have changed. but we'd go

back in time agree that we can i mean, if you come back to 2020 in this district, joe biden, will you have to come in and carry look at the district nassau. we can do it by county. that congressional district. well, i can probably find cvs see if my cds are still sorry. i didn't prepare for that. that's okay. that's okay. but you can look you can look roughly here, nassau county, joe biden won the county, which is again, to your point, right? a little off, but this is this is when the suburbs abandoned donald trump. donald trump narrowly won the suburbs nationally in 2016 against hillary clinton. no, they abandon them in 2018 and that's why nancy pelosi was speaker. they abandon them in 2020. this is new york. joe biden was going to win new york anyway. but to that point, if you go back in time, you come here 2016, nassau county, it's closer. you see there you come through just want to go way back in time. bill clinton won this area pretty decided sibley not exactly the greatest analogy that way, because the maps do change. but as we look in here, let's just come back and see if the numbers have gone up at all. we are stuck right here still 61 to 39 in the race right now. but a very important point most of the

vote is from >> the queen's part of the district, very little of the vote from the much more republicans suburban area, jake, hopefully we get more count >> just in the minutes ahead. >> all right, john king, and >> if you're just joining us, we are covering the special election to fill the house seat previously held by ousted republican george santos. and right now, >> we have another key race >> alert for you. let's look at the big board here with 14% of the estimated vote in cobb, former congressman tom suozzi, the democrat, has 61% of the vote to the republican's 39%. suozzi has 15,592 votes. he's 5,615 votes ahead of republican mazi pilip, who has nine thousand 977 votes. it is early yet we expect a lot more vote counting to happen tonight. i want to check back with our correspondents are covering the candidates. first we go to miguel marquez. he's at suozzi, his campaign headquarters in woodbury, new york. and miguel, what is that's why isn't camps take on the numbers so far

>> utter confidence. i want to show you this room right now and how it is just filled up. and the suozzi campaign saying that they they seem to be everything they are saying seems to be that they are very, very confident that this vote is going to go their way. so confident, in fact, we spoke to jay jacobs a short time ago. he's the head of the democratic party here in nassau and in new york state. he is very confident that the early votes in those early ballots they say that they are getting some of those numbers already. there are starting to see some of those numbers and they liked the way that they are breaking for them and that in the next few minutes that jacobs and tom suozzi will come out and they will address this crowd they have said all along that they did not expect to do that unless they were certain of a result. so we expect to hear something from the suozzi campaign very, very soon from

suozzi himself, a very, very soon look, he has run a very tight very sort of centrist, very aggressive campaign and billions and millions of dollars have been spent across the board here. so they are hoping that the result is there's tonight. >> all right. miguel marquez. thank you so much and we have another key rate he race alert for you right now because while miguel was talking, a lot of votes came in, we are now above 50% of the estimated vote in 51% to be precise. and democrat thomas suozzi maintaining his lead. he has 58.7% of the vote he is 55,154 votes. that's how many he has. that is 16,311 votes ahead of the republican mazi pilip, who has 38,843. that's with 51% of the vote in suozzi with 58.7% and pilip with 41.3%. so that's a lot of

votes she still could, you know, she's still could make it up. but but if i were i'd rather be congressmen, former congressman suozzi, then mazi pilip right now with a majority of the votes in absolutely have to vote if you've got about half again and again, this sin estimates a special election. so they'll be tiny little bit of wiggle room just there because it turned out so unpredictable in a special election, you're making an estimate based on turnout, but you're exactly right, especially as you approach what you believe is half the vote or more when you've got a significant lead, it's just simple math, it just gets hard to cut into. now, just one point to make when you have the votes bring into the central location in nassau county and reported and you get a big number of votes like that nine times out of ten, that is the early vote. that is the early vote that has been tabulated. they just can't release it until they get it to the central location and they go. so they're all votes, they count. so if you're suozzi democrats, especially since covid disproportionately win the early votes. so we need to

watch and see is that balances out, but to your point, break it up by county. now, we have a significant amount of votes. remember just moments ago we only have 1,000 and change the republican candidate was winning in nassau county if it stays this way and if it's nassau county stays blue far as he wins the election, because we know queen's is going to stay blue, right? so if nassau also stays blue, this is where you'll have much more of the votes, perhaps as many as four times, as many votes here, cast here. so if suozzi keeps the nesarc county part of the district blue just, you know, you don't need to know the math. >> this is probably as you note, though, mostly early vote, right? which they about 80,000 out of 160,000 were early. and we know that generally speaking, most of those were democratic voters. so this is not a surprise, but this margin is really surprised that that is the key points. so on the one hand, you're republican, you say this is the early vote. it's going to the democrat that's okay. we'll get it back with the election day vote. okay. you can, but you're exactly right so you can get it back. but that means you have

to beat that. that means the alexey, you if that's if that's the early vote on the election day vote, you got to beat 58% or more. that's a big number, right? that's a big number. if so, yes, this tends the early vote does tend to be disproportionately democratic. but in the end, it's still math and you've opened those votes all count, you've opened up that lead. so now we need to see as you go from there, we believe we believe this is up. we say 82% of the estimated vote. we believe we're pretty close to done for the night queen's two. so we don't expect the queen's part of the district. we don't expect more votes to commend. we think we're close, so this is, this, this is the game now as the votes come in, a nassau county, we think around 45% these came in pretty quickly as we saw with john berman on the scene there, the flash drives, the disks, the backup materials showing up there. so watches, this continues to come out to the full district. there's your math, 59, 41. if you're suozzi, you're happy, but you want to see you what you want to know from your people on the scene, jake and some of these key precincts that okay. now we're seeing election day votes. yeah, if you keep that lead or you only lose a little bit of

that percentage as you see more election-day votes, that's when you start getting more confident. so let's find out where this big amount of vote, this vote dump as they call it, just came in from, we actually have a correspondence slash anchor at the site of the nassau county election board in minneola, new york. john berman, we just saw the vote count go from something like 16% to 51%. where did those votes? let's come from where they early votes tell us more >> yes. yes >> almost all of what you're seeing right now is the early vote in mail in from nassau county. that was what was just posted. we had someone run out and tell us we just put it up on the website. unfortunately, i can't see the website, jake, so i actually don't know what the numbers say. all i know is they just posted the early vote and the mail-in. so that is the bash you're looking at. now. they already had that here. that was already largely in this building already. it's the election day vote that's been

coming in and being processed now. so i imagine we should get some of that very shortly. >> well, john i'm happy to be your source of news and tell you what vote count is because you don't know tom suozzi has 58.7% of the vote. the republican mazi pilip has 41.3% of the vote, with 51% of the vote in. now, hope john heard that, yeah, i just wanted to locate john on the map. you're making can find it a scarf. i think it's a red sox scarf. i didn't i wasn't making finer that. i just said it was in a style homage to george santos, who was a fashion icon unto himself. in any case, berman has >> been a fashion icon since before george santos, i'm sorry. that's true. >> why there today appropriately dressed for this story. >> i agree. and you look lovely. in any case did you expect this vote count at 51% because the polls, by the way, >> have been neck and neck within the margin of error throughout the entire special election. obviously, we did not know who is actually going to turn out. it's so difficult to

pull for who is going to turn out who is a likely voter in special election. and then of course, there was this snowstorm that rolled through nassau county. this morning. >> and there are other things as well. there was as you were talking in the interviews with the congressman and the congresswoman earlier, there was the idea that the senate maybe going to pass they might even do an immigration package. then the republicans would, they couldn't reach republican agreement on that. and ukraine debate israel debate, and donald trump reemerging and whether it's his comments about nato or anything else. but donald trump reemerging. so a number of things have happened that make an unpredictable special election even more unpredictable. i would argue in the sense that democrats started, started this election on defense and immigration absolute late in the campaign on immigration, they tried, and these this results will be one of the test cases. it's one race, one special election week to be careful, not say wow, we found gold here of political goals here, but halfway through the democrats pivoted and tried to put the republicans on defense saying wainwright, we're trying to do something tough on the border. you've been asking us to do this for 25 years. we're trying to do it now and you're

the ones walking away. so we'll see what happens this. there were a lot i'm moving parts in the selection from the unpredictably of turnout in a special election, from one candidate very well-known, one candidate, not quite as low on the scene locally, but nowhere near the name identity of him, all that money that david chalian was talking about earlier. so there are a lot of unpredictable ingredients and a special election. but if you're tom suozzi and you're seeing you have it's the early vote, but this is nassau county. this is where you're going to have the bulk of the vote coming from the district and you get that, you get 59% in the first big installment. again, you want to see some election day vote, but you're getting happy in the suozzi kept. yeah. and as you noted, it has not been exactly a banner week for republicans trying to make the argument that they can be trusted with control of government because there has been a lot of dysfunction among house republicans. and who knows what effect that may have had in terms of suppressing the vote or even causing people to say, you know what >> very >> quickly sometimes being a former does not help you.

sometimes people want change. they don't want to go back. but one of his argument it's in the end. we'll see if it works. is the republicans are chaotic. there are mass, you don't know what you're going to get. a you want me there, you know me. you want me there to represent you. >> you want me on that wall. now, let's go to lauren fox at republican mazi pilip ss headquarters. she's an east meadow, new york. lauren, these numbers are obviously disappointing as of right now for maasie pillow but we have no idea where they're going to end up. but right now, this is not where she wanted to be. 16,311, 11 at 311 votes behind what are you hearing from republicans about the race >> yeah, there are two men in this room for whom this race tonight is really important. because they are up for reelection in november. i'm talking about congressman lalota, a congressman d'esposito. i just spoke with both of them about what this race if mccarthy pillow loses, could mean for them. and the lotus said, and acknowledged the reality that this race tonight, even though it's a

special election, even though it's february, even though there was the snowstorm, they're always lessons to be learned when you're looking for trend lines ahead of november and you're hoping to hold on to what is a swing district for yourself as well. obviously, i talked to voters today who voted for donald trump in 2016 turned around and voted for the democrats in this race, voted for tom suozzi because they said his message on bipartisanship. and the fact that house republicans have really struggled to pass legislation over the last couple of weeks impacted the way they were looking at this race. and if you're a democrat running in these swing districts, running in a suburban district, that's the kind of message that's the kind of playbook that you want to emulate in november. so obviously, both parties are gonna be looking for lessons learned. yes, it's a special election, but two republicans in this room tonight are going to be waiting very closely to see what this result is. finally, because they're worried about what it could

mean for them in november. >> all right. lauren fox hill up headquarters in new york. thank you so much. an anderson as john and i were just discussing anecdotally, i lauren talked to two republican or two trump voters who went for suozzi and one of the reasons, at least according to what lauren just reported, was the fact that republicans in recent days have not exactly been showing that they know how to govern. in fact, i think this congress is the least productive congress since the great depression at that memory serves anderson definitely having an impact on voters, a better team here in new york, david chalian, i mean if this does go for the democrat and we're expecting to hear >> from suozzi any moment really. does it send a message? i mean, there was a snowstorm republicans generally vote on election day. i mean, what does one read too much into it or well, i definitely think there's danger of reading too much into it, but we'll do that nonetheless. but in the immediate term, in the

immediate term, anderson, if suozzi ends up victorious tonight, the math and the house changes. so this this would be a flip from a republic looking held seat prior to the expulsion of santos to a democratic seat. and that's going to make speaker johnson's math that much more complicated. like, for instance, if indeed that happens, there are still three vacancies. if everyone shows up for a vote, johnson's only gonna be able to lose to republicans on any given issue if he needs all the republicans to vote for it, instead of three, that's a big, that's a big deal. there's no margin for error. so that's one. but in terms of the looking towards the fall the thing about this district is this is new these new york districts are what delivered the majority to the republicans and the house of representatives and it is precisely the kind of district that democrats need to win back if they are to win control of the house of representatives in november. and so yes, there are specific circumstances here. i think the immigration issue is probably more acute here in the new york media market than it is in some of these other districts. the snow, no doubt

about it, but the broad picture, the broader picture is if the democrats can flip this seat back, they have a model to try and start recreating and some of these districts that point, look at what happened just a few hours ago. i mean, they impeach the homeland security secretary by a single vote and washington this would have potentially changed that if tom suozzi was congressman suozzi when that vote went down, and so i can tell you speaker mike johnson's office is obviously watching this very closely. it was their number one priority today. this is not good news for them because it does have that immediate impact, even if you can't really read into what's going to happen in november based on what's happening here tonight and has an immediate impact on what's going to happen over night. >> or both candidates have said they will run again in november the regular i do think that there's one element of this race and this is just one data point and several cycles where we've seen something similar, which is that these national trends of dissatisfaction in the electorate that democratic leaning voters are as unhappy as anybody else about what's

happening at the border or the economy or what have you. but when people go into the voting booth and they make a decision about who they are going to vote for it may not line up with how unhappy they are because it is a choice and that is what national democrats are counting on. the biden campaign in particular, that people might be unhappy, but when they're facing a and b, they have to make a decision and sometimes that does not line up necessarily with the trends here. this is a district that should have been one where republicans could have leveraged immigration. for example, if they don't pull out a win here, i do think it calls into question how potent that is going to be for voters when they are faced, not just with the issue by pollsters, but with a choice in the ballot box. let me take somebody election mechanics. that's bothering me as a republican voting early voting by mail, ballot harvesting, getting your votes in. it looks to me like

the democrats here crushed in the early voting in nassau, where the republicans had to do well. and you're always just one snowstorm away. from some kind of a turnout problem. >> and >> so the democrats are going to win this. it looks like we haven't colleague eb. it looks like they're on their way in a big part of it is the republican party remains resistant to getting votes in the bank. gosh who, who could have, could have possibly, it's crazy republicans. the idea that it's not a good god. >> i'm just let me get you've got to vote point, get your vote in. that's all i'm saying. vote whenever you can >> who, who who could have given you such a stupid strategy, just trying to think to myself, is there someone who's just a perpetual loser who loses over and over again, who also has a losing strategy when it comes to not but do you have sir idea who might have we got it. we got it >> if i may, i met when i said at the outset was struck two

teams. and who shows up on game day, right? and early voting as part of that process. and i think there's a tendency to over emphasize a congressional race as if it's a national referendum all the time. and the reality is, my experience has been people who live in nassau county or queens want to know, is this person going to do the best job for me going forward you can nationalize it all you want, but that's how they act. now, i will say this. and what was to telling. though you can distinguish between the sienna poll came out last week among independents in a district that president biden won are actually voting for donald trump and head to head in that sienna poll, donald trump beats president biden by six points. so i think you can distinguish between the words you guys get beat >> was that was it could be tonight. >> i don't know if it's over that happens. was see what happens, but i think when all

is said and done kathleen, you go to the voters. they in trust you because they want you to be their voice, their representative. and if suozzi wins, he deserved the wind and every single day, let's listen to mao's in eight weeks and we need a great job you we are to fight this yes, we lost. >> but it doesn't mean we're going to >> end here. i did i did call my opponents. i congratulated him and i love you. you guys are great, amazing. i'm so proud to be part of this amazing organization. the republican party really, really he does then i want to thank

chairman cairo for his hard work and i also would like to thank all my colleagues in government, the people who have been there with me every single day and to you. but really most important is to you. you guys are amazing. you are hard workers. you love this country so let's keep it down and we get to continue to fight because we are not going to give up. we get a brain common sense government. i promise you. thank you >> so we're expecting to hear from from suozzi. we'll obviously bring that to you live. oh, we didn't hear from from uk from well, look, i'm happy to hear this. i think the tom was relentless on his messaging. he heard the voters. he understand what their concerns were. and i will say he was aided a lot with by a lot of financial help from democrats in washington. i think they understood how important it was. to win this

seat and go into november with a victory for democrats to think the fact that i mean, people know him, he has a long record there, whereas kelly there's less and less now, i think i think it doesn't matter. >> i mean, look, i've known tom for almost as long as he's been in politics. >> people know him. you have republicans and independents who are used to voting for him. they've done it as county executive when he was mayor. and certainly now we know because independence had to majorly break his way in order for him to win tonight. >> and i >> think again, just going back to the messaging voters, want to hear from people running for office who understand where they are feeling. and even though tom was speaking not a very progressive message on long island, it was a message that worked because it resonated with voters. and i think that snus was our party is a broad party, has a big tent. we don't all march down the same lowell road the way

that trump is marching as republicans down the same road. and so you're going to have democratic and punched out on immigration. i just happened in the familiarity of a de facto incumbent here. may have mattered a lot because it's district just tried something crazy. basically. and it blew >> up and which always is measures that suozzi tried to push, which is like that, that she is santos to point out a little on this thing, but it was sort of crazy. let's just go back what's crazy though, about we trads up, but let's go back to something that we know was ok. and not not not up, not about, you know, you don't have a rough still there. >> if victorious, i think that's the deciding factor. i think he's more seasoned as a candidate that makes a difference. came across but familiarity or reliability, they didn't want to take a chance. and he ran a good kept saying, we've got to give the guy credit for. he was out there so much more than she was. she did very few interviews or appearances. you only agree to one debate that was not until the end of this.

and so i think that was also part of it, but the other interesting thing that i'm curious about how the white house is watching it is he distanced himself from president biden. he disagreed with him on the border. president biden didn't come camp and she didn't embrace trump let's go back to jake. jake. >> all right. anderson and guess what? we can now make an important projection cnn projects that the democrat tom suozzi, the former member of the house we'll when the special election in new york's third congressional district, the democrats are picking up the house seat previously held by ousted republican george santos suozzi, defeating his republican opponent, masih pilip and now set to return to the house where he previously served. this is a big and critical victory for democrats that shrinks the republicans already slim majority in the house with suozzi is when democrats will have 213 house seats compared to 219 for republicans with three seats as of right now, remaining of vacant. so it's a huge victory

for democrats and let us go now and check in with our friend miguel marquez, who is at campaign headquarters, where suozzi is, i believe he's in glen cove's in new york. and miguel, the tv hasn't caught up with where we are, but i see there watching cnn, they got to be feeling good there they are feeling incredibly confident here and the magic of tv you're about to see. in fact, i'm electric right now >> we're about a minute. minute. i have delayed or so from when you guys speak to when it hits the tvs here. so that is the news. look at that seed of cell phones taking all this and we expect tom suozzi now to get jay jacobs, the head of the democratic party here in new york state to take the stage in about 15 minutes. let's just about 10:30 and he

will >> he will declare victory in this race. he ran such a of focus and intense race. it was a very, very short four election of less than two months. and he just use his name, his his his not just him, but his father, his uncle, the suozzi name is no on throughout long island, he's a long time, so it was centrist democrat. he hasn't always gotten with the party itself. and that worked in his favor. he ran essentially on republican issues on the on immigration on the the border on crime and on taxes, and really drove that that message home. the other thing that really worked for him was that sort of ghost of george santos, though despite the fact that many voters didn't want to talk about george santos, what drove them to the polls in the final days is that they were doing early voting. was that anger, that residual anger over george santos and we've seen this with

candidates are or with members of congress that leave under, under bad circumstances. and then their party gets punished. in the next election. and that seems to have played out here tonight. we expect to see what we expected to say is congressman elect tom suozzi in about five minutes, jake. >> all right. we'll come back to you. then, miguel for congressmen-elect, suozzi and dana mazi has already conceded defeat to the democrats which these days, we should i guess, not necessarily take for granted. it is important that we are seeing a democracy work the way it is supposed to. there and monitor you were up in this district a couple of weeks ago? i was this past week it really is interesting to see somebody like tom suozzi, who is as classic a politician as they come. i mean, he came up

through not only did he have a father and grandfather who were involved in politics, but he came up through local politics being a mare, been county executive, and watch him i watched him work the phones and stay in touch with people asking what people's names were, who they met on the street because maybe he knew somebody who knew somebody who knew somebody that kind of connection that he continues to have really, i think you can't buy that. yeah, it makes such a huge difference. he had significant name id would can you do and i'm it was remarkable though there were a real fear among democrats that they were going to blow this race despite having those built-in advantages, despite the fact that the joe biden did carry in this district in 2020. this is a low turnout election. their voter anger was real over immigration. suozzi recognizes he was getting nailed on the issue of immigration had to cut to ads to defend himself. there was a dispute within the democratic party about how

exactly to go over masih pilip. national democrats, suozzi allies and the like. and there was a fear that this was all going to slip away and the decision by suozzi to essentially distanced themselves from the national democratic party brand. and also joe biden, i asked him, would you campaign with joe biden? he said joe pine, it would not be helpful in this district. and at the end, maasie pillow yes, she didn't say if she'd vote for donald trump and the leg, she ultimately did say she she did. and she defended trump over all of his criminal charges and the like when i talked to her and she leaned in pretty hard to the republican party brand, the national demo, republicans came out, local republicans came out, and she thought that would help her them the date and it just did not end. jeff, the question? and is looking at the way that to suozzi ran this campaign as a person who is a candidate in and of themselves, somebody again, who has those ties, not connected to joe biden as much as he possibly can, despite republicans really trying hard to attach the two

of them what kind of lessons do we think that democrats who are going to be on the ballot with joe biden in november are going to take from the way that he ran that campaign. >> i think first and foremost, it's a warning sign talking to democrats if they know by now, immigration is going to be a central issue, regardless of where you live. you do not need to be in a border, state or district. it is everywhere because governor abbott, but texas governor greg abbott did. it was a very remarkable thing. so that is one thing immigration is a huge concern which they know what they also know is these are local elections and if you have a strong campaign and brand, you can either outrun or distance yourself from the the president to a point. but this is a special election with a very low turnout. so i think any lessons that we draw tonight are probably short term lessons for democrats, no doubt it is a sign of relief. it is a welcome sign for them, but i think in terms of the fall, there was no primary in this case. there

will be primaries in the fall so there are many, many, many differences, but democrats can outstand the biden low approval rating audie, i think suozzi speaking now, but very briefly, this is a race. okay, sorry about that. this is a race that they did not have abortion hanging over it, right? so you can't sort of goose or animate the electorate with that. it's also a race where republicans had their kind of fantasy atmosphere of immigration and crime being issues that people are talking about. a lot. and he found a way to talk about them the israel issue is kind of a wash because essentially he was saying, you can have no conditions and still funding. and so some of these positions don't work on the national level but i think that it's going to be instructive in some ways for people who are trying to win over suburbs who are democrats, who are saying, how do you do this? if you can't lean on? abortion rights as the issue to get you over and i want to also the immigration issue, the fact that the senate

did cut that bipartisan border deal that gave tell us something that talk about. he went after republicans for abandoning that and he said that he had pushed joe biden to essentially come out with a bipartisan deal, own the issue, go after publicans. so we'll see if that actually made a difference among voters. >> and that really made people think noxious about the issue of immigration. but the way washington is running and the chaos, i'm thinking of a guy by the name of vick, who i met in that paid and he said, i just want somebody whose normal who wants to stoke the chaos, probably the normal, not normal could ever make the problem solvers caucus sounds sexy, prior to this point, that's not been useful all right, here he is. >> congressman elect tom suozzi >> let's >> let's listen in as he declares victory i, am

>> signs down thank god >> let me just enjoy this for one more minute, okay

kay? all right? >> despite >> all the attacks despite denies about tom suozzi and the squad about tom suozzi being the godfather of the migrant crisis about sanctuary suozzi despite the dirty tricks

despite the vaunted nassau county republican machine we won >> now we know this. race was flawed in a district with it >> america this race was fed amidst a closely divided electorate must look much like our whole country this race was centered on immigration and the

economy much like the issues all across our country we won this race. we, you won this race it was we addressed the issues and we found a way to bind our divisions >> what we >> just saw with the protests tonight. okay? there are divisions in our country where people can't even talk to each other. all they can do is yell and scream at each other and that's not the answer to the problems we face in our country. the answer is to try and bring people of goodwill together to try and find that common ground >> we won we won this campaign

because the people of queens and long island between at 20 >> here for labor for the people of long island and queens are sick and tired the political bickering >> they've had it they want us to come together and solve problems. so now we have to carry the message of this campaign to the united states congress and across our entire country >> it's time it's time to move beyond the petty partisan bickering and the finger-pointing. it's time to focus on how to solve the problems. >> yeah. >> it's time to get to work on

immigration on israel on combating putin on helping the middle of class and getting the state and local tax deduction back let's send a message to our friends running the congress these days stunning around for trump start running the country it's time to find common >> ground and start delivering for the people of the united states of america people are watching they want us to start working together so our message is very clear either get on board or get out of the way

>> the >> people in this room and to our friends throughout this whole campaign. thank you so much for sticking with me >> we've all seen we've all seen what politics has become and in this campaign, we tried to give a vision of what it could be let's take our country back from the dividers >> you >> know that no external force is ever going to be the united states of america the only way we're going to be in trouble if we let ourselves continued to be divided from within. so this whole campaign, the whole campaign has been about how do we communicate to people that we can be better if we work together to try and solve the problems we face in our countries. and that's the message that's the message that resonated with the people in

his campaign. this was a really tough campaign and we only one because of that message. and because of all of you you want to take the country back from the people who are trying to divide it >> how are you with me in that fight are we going to keep on working? until we hold politicians accountable when they just tried to use issues for weaponization to try and destroy the other guys instead of actually solving the problems to make people's lives better, that's what we've got to doing this i've got to thank a whole bunch of people. i'm never gonna be able to thank everybody by name, anthony so let me just be very clear. okay. i want to start by thanking the chairman of the nassau county democratic party, jay jacobs nassau county

democratic party i want to thank the tiermann of the queen's republican party greene, greg meeks >> and the republican i don't want to thank, i don't want to thank you, sam or the queen's republican party i want to thank the chairman of the queens democratic party and the greens democratic party for selecting me as the candidate to run this race. i am so grateful for this honor i wanted to say this is the best campaign i've ever been involved with in my entire life i've got to thank my best friend, the best partner anybody could ever have in their life who's put up with so much let's hear it for halyna,

was and our dollar who worked so much i got to thank are awesome campaign staff unbelievable led by john joan in our campaign manager my advisor for the past 23 years, kim devlin and the great mick ryan no, i take everybody on the team. you're all fantastic. you're all awesome. i've got to thank the peop people on whose backs really carried a large part of this campaign. my friends, the men and women of labor please have your back.

you had my back so grateful to all of you >> i can't believe how much work everybody did from the very beginning to the very end of this campaign up until just a few hours, i tell suozzi, who has now won this a special election. he obviously another election of for this same seat in november, both candidates had pledge to run again. i'm not sure do you think they're above them? guinea will the look more will run again. >> i mean, that's gonna be up to the party leadership and they'll probably take a deeper look on where the numbers came from, how they did. but she has said that she was going to run whether she won or lost, but we'll see if she had pulled it off. we'd be said you're talking about how she was from central casting, a woman of color a former soldier, israeli, the new phase republican parties. there's a reason that she seemed plausible to people. she just got what now, if they want to

find somebody else, but like it's gonna be there's redistricting in this will make it tougher for republicans, tougher for the republican in this district. >> yeah. >> but i think one really important moment, it's what we just saw there when he got on stage, tom suozzi to give this acceptance speech and before he even spoke to the crowd gathered there a protester, protesting. that is the us a stance toward israel right now and believe pro-palestinian protester got up there, which is something that is happening at basically every single event that you do you see so many democrats, mainly president biden and vice president harris, go into, right now, it was a key issue in this race. obviously, you mentioned that she was a former soldier. a former soldier and the idf. and tom suozzi was someone who he made this argument that i thought was really interesting, which was that you don't need any more pro israel republicans and congress, you need a pro-israel demo oh crap. in congress in washington, which i thought was something that clearly was a big part for voters here, given there are a lot of jewish people who live in this district. one of the >> biggest districts in the

country for jewish population. and so you had both candidates here speaking to that group, but i do think it foreshadows van you and i were talking about this earlier. what is going to happen? to joe biden at this democratic convention later this year on that topic, you're going to have a lot of energy still around that. one thing on suozzi speech, by the way. >> he >> ran is a very, very moderate guy, moderate democrat i mean, even running on one tax cut for the rich, running on pro ice, border enforcement mean this does not sound like your standard issue liberal progressive debit. now, you would say, well, he's running to match his district, but it is interesting to me that that message obviously sold here, but it is decidedly not where the energy is. and the democratic party, but he, he found, he found a way the works. >> i actually like, what do you have to say? i mean, i find some people love the war of politics. i think most people just want their elected officials to find solutions,

their problems better schools, better parks, but a transit options. i represents staten island. that's not too dissimilar from this congressional district. that's what people want at the end of the day, i believe, yeah, there's gonna be people on either side with like just drove grenade into their tent. and when we're happy, but i don't i don't subscribe to that. and so i i'll give him credit for basically get up there and say, you've elected me to find solutions to your problems. and i think that's the right approach. >> i think a couple of things. this is going to be rerun to your point. they're going to be a different districts. i think this guy is going to be here for awhile, but i think that it's like idea that all democrats are these far progressives that are all socialists. and that's not our party we've got base black voters that are quite concerned about a bunch of issues. we have a big tent party and people get attention in our party who are on the extremes. but we got a big tent. the problem i think other republican side is they're

being forced by one guy to crypto one line on everything. and that now republicans can't even deliver on immigration because one guy bound trump doesn't want them to. so i think the flexibility in our party that you can have democrats excited to see al-saudi on our air tonight, and also excited this guy, one that's a healthy party. we have a healthy point. it's inching though the discussion you think about i don't know, was it last week you had the president come out, give that press conference in response to the herd report >> didn't go >> over well among the certainly the pundit class and then there was a lot of hand-wringing among democrats about president biden i then president trump came out with the comments about nato and encouraging russia to invade two countries and nato countries that don't pay their fair share. and i'm wondering if this victory by a democrat, whatever the reasons for the particular district, but does

this does this sort of give some wind to the sails for democrats? >> i think that one of the things you're pointing to is, and this is what van was saying as well which party leader, if it's trump or biden is going to allow the candidates down-ballot to break away from them, to have some space from the national narrative. that's how how districts are one that's how senate races are. what that's how in tough election cycles like this. one that we're about to have, where the national mood is so sour, the party that is going to be victorious is going to be the one where the candidates who are the right for those, those geographies are able to break away from the national narrative and run the right race for that place in this case, i think that is what you saw happen here for for suozzi, he was able to create an identity for himself that was separate and apart from joe biden, he had to do it somewhat aggressively, but that's what you're going to see. a lot of candidates in a low turnout special harder to do when the

president is on the ballot and his opponent is on the ballot. so what mike >> lawler and the other freshmen republican moderates, who right now, you know, could have hoped that that immigration bill is bipartisan, could have potentially helped them but what did they do? what does this mean for them? tonight? i think those are several, three people. i believe that you're watching really closely to see what they're reading in this, because they are people who did not run similar to trump. they said the election was not rigged. they said it was not stolen. they've broken with their party on the more extreme parts of it. but how did they look at tonight and how does that change their race come november, we didn't hear from tom suozzi tonight. >> was going after trump or trying to paint the entire republican party with donald trump tonight, that that's going to change. that is what joe biden is going to do. that is their campaign, because to your big ten point van the unifying force for democrats, for everyone in that tent is donald trump. and that's what the biden team is banking on.

i'm here and that's what's going to change in the environment apart from this special election as scott was saying to a much more nationalized, we're going to be in such a, from a trump biden dynamic that, that tends it tends to have down ballot impact in the heat of a presidential election republicans believe i just want we're struggling with this right now as republicans, we've got to take the senate races. we got everybody from carried a larry kari lake to larry hogan, couldn't be. but you've got republicans out there who couldn't be angrier about larry hogan getting into the maryland senate race. now he's the exact right kind of republican for that race. but i see people every day saying we can't possibly elect this kind of republican, but that's the person you would need there. so that flexibility point is a good one. and for the party leaders, they don't really need a litmus test on what kind of a person you are. you just need to get there and give your party the majority the smart party will go that direction. i'm a little worried about the republicans not embracing people like a hogan in that

maryland senate race because they just, they want more purity and not, not as much majority. >> republicans, just to your point, abby, look, i've been in this democratic majority where we have been given the flexibility from leadership congressional jill leadership to do whatever you have to do to win, say whatever you have to say. if you want find to come to your district, he'll be there. if you don't, he won't. that is not going to happen for mike lawler or anyone on long island. it's just not going to happen within feminist this is one race, as you said, tom suozzi deserves a good victory, apparently ran a very good campaign. but this is against the backdrop of the trend over the last few years across long island and some parts of new york state where the republican party has done very well because i don't know every race, but they probably had good candidates running on issues that matter. and i wanted to talk before about the the ad spending more than 80% of the ads spent one immigration, migrant issues and law enforcement because there's a feel at least around

new york city in the suburbs that myelin long ion, westchester, that there's something that's just wrong and nobody's doing anything about it. so we're going to hire the people who's going to fix that. and i think suozzi pulled a good one where he said, i'm i know the immigration tough problem and i'm going to be your guide to fix it. and that probably helped him when when all of a sudden done. >> but one of the other elements, i think that's why he's alluding to and i think we heard from some of our reporters talking to voters saying they look at washington and they look and see what kind of leadership is on display republicans in the house are not doing themselves any favors by making this an incredibly unproductive legislative session by not being able to govern even with their own small majority, which democrats have had and have been able to pass laws. that doesn't help when voters are trying to decide who actually, what is the model for leadership? that

i want to support in washington? that is going to be a problem. not i think it was a problem in this race. it's probably going to be a problem. and a lot of other races going down the line. this was they're supposed to be their opportunity to show voters how they would lead. and so far, frankly, it's been a disaster from day one and when they could not elect a speaker, i that's going to tie that this function to donald trump doing tonight is impeaching the homeland security secretary after they just sunk the bipartisan immigration bill that was negotiated for, i mean, not not just on and it's not just what are they not what are they impeaching him for, but the impeachment is not going to go anywhere, so it's like what, what are they >> are two different kinds of disorder and dysfunction i think the republicans have been trying to look at the disorder and dysfunction at the street level and talk about crime and talk about immigration. tie the two together, and talk about that. the problem is in power they look like the disorder and the dysfunction. what they're doing in dc everyday looks disordered and dysfunctional.

and so i think democrats are going to start pointing that out. and because they ginned up the issue of immigration republicans took nobody's talking about immigration is time last year was all abortion. republicans successfully took that issue from the margin to the center drop the ball fall, and then lost an election on it. that's where the republican party as well. but it's up dropped off, didn't pass legislation and then lost in elections. but, but the democrat did run a pro enforcement campaign. i mean, he was running clips of himself on fox news, so we hit issue, but you guys craft legislation that's what i'm but i'm saying not every democrat is going to going to be able to run it hard on immigration let's go back to jake in dc. jake. >> thanks, anderson. let's talk about all of this with the panel and i guess there is this question about how much of the republican dysfunction that we've seen on capitol hill played a role anecdotally, we've heard from some voters or a lauren fox from, from some voters that, that played a role. but then there's also just the trump fan how much did donald trump and his presence

play a role in what happened to a woman who a local official, who otherwise might have been a very strong candidate. >> i'm not sure that in this particular case it played a big role. i mean, you were also there. i'd love to know what you think certainly what democrats tried to do was tie her to trump. in fact, there was a bit of a kerfuffle between the party and his and tom suozzi, his campaign because the party, which is independent expenditure side the people who put up ads and they're not supposed to coordinate with the campaign or the party called her a maga republican. and at first tom suozzi and his campaign, they were not that happy about that because they really wanted to not scare off the maga republicans right? yeah, it because i thought some of them would actually vote for him. so it wasn't as big of a factor because she wouldn't really talk about donald trump as much

as other republicans are eager to because of where she was. >> yeah, no question about it. and that was an interesting dynamic because they were worried about giving a cretin and so what the maga base is using, the maga turnout because they try didn't really know who she was in trying to define her as someone who is hiding from her views. that's helped suozzi wanted to label her, but it was just the way that suozzi was able to manage the toxicity that you do, frankly acknowledged that their toxicity of the democratic the brand and tried to pivot around that, that will be learning something that a playbook that we replicated by democrats in these swing districts time and again. and to take on issues like immigration had on the 20 this reminds me of the 2020 elections which democrats lost a lot of these key races because they did not take on the issue of crime. they got hit on the issues of defunding the police. suozzi recognized he was getting absolutely eviscerated on immigration and tried to take it head on and he probably was helped by the

senate bipartisan deal that was cut could seize on, that, could put, take good to maasie prb and say republicans killed this one good chance we have to do so and also not to explain things away, like on the issue of immigration and particularly crime. his approach was not to say, well, the numbers aren't as bad as you think because if you look at these stats which you often hear from democrats, he's look, i get it, i get that you think this is a problem. i think it's a problem, but look at how the republicans didn't handle it. so instead of just search saying like, well, it's in your head, it's not as bad as you think. he really just addressed it in the bottom line to all of this is donald trump and president biden were largely bystanders. they won't be in a general election. they will be at the middle of all this. but what democrats are relying on now as they can use money and they have financial advantage in many respects to push back in this case. but i think this again, for as interesting as it is, it has very limited lessons, perhaps for the election nine months from now. >> all right, democrat tom suozzi is headed back to congress cnn projecting that he

will defeat republican or mazi pilip in the race to replace ousted congressman george santos. a big blow for house republican leadership dealing with an already razor thin gop majority. our coverage continues in just a moment >> back after this backroom deals. cia secrets of fairs, >> bribery, corruption, prostitution >> there's so much more to the store. >> united states of scandal with jake tapper, back-to-back premiere sunday at nine on cnn, one barbus was to turbotax i wrote for generations of family tradition with five little words. >> i want to make perfume getting my business off the ground was a full-time job. >> so i made bbs new psyche count by guaranteeing 100% accurate filing in a maximum refund make your moves will make them count. intuit's

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business with freelance. it experts. fiber. >> i'm ed lavendera along the us southern border. >> this cnn >> a major victory for democrats this evening, tom suozzi winning from these special house election in new york, picking up the seat previously held by the expelled republican fabulous george santos. and eroding the republicans already razor thin majority in the us house of representatives, suozzi of former congressman. now congressman elect, defeating republican mazi pilip in new york's third congressional district in the long island area. let's take a look at the status of votes right now with 87% of the vote in suozzi still has a command ending lead with 54.2% of the vote. 83,405 votes. that's 12,990 votes

ahead of republican maasie philip, who has 45 of the vote. this is something of a shellacking in a district that had polled pretty much neck and neck through out the race. and this is why this house race matters so much. width suozzi is when democrats, when democrats will now have 213 house seats compared to 219 with republicans with three seats still remaining vacant right now so that means republicans now facing even tougher path to push through legislation as the 2024 election year unfolds with that six feet six vote majority, they can only afford to lose three republican votes any one vote. let's go to miguel marquez, who is at suozzi campaign headquarters in woodbury, new york, and miguel, a huge win for suozzi and democrats this evening enormous

and an early as well, there was growing confidence when they saw the early votes come in and the >> absentees and they felt that they had some momentum going. but the republican russian here in nassau county is renowned. they can get the votes out, but that snowstorm hit that may have helped democrats as well. and i think that they expected to have a decent night tonight. i do not think that they expected to call it this early suozzi talking up there today, just a short time ago saying that this will send a signal to democrats everywhere about how have to, when they need to win in november. and for republicans in purple districts, they better pay attention because they are coming from that for them, it is it was a very, very strong statement about what worked in this specific race. there were a couple of protesters who tried to break in, but there were shouts of of suozzi. suozzi, as soon as they did and they move them out. they also,

to be fair, they also had a mic issues, so he was buying time up there so that people could place the mics up on the lectern because the system they have here did not work. but he's even the protesters that showed what a pro he is as in campaigning. he basically just said, i love america. he wants people to be able to speak. he's, he's very, very quick. he's he ran a very, very aggressive campaign and never wasted so the minute his entire campaign staff was completely on it every single day. that's something that we did not see out of the republican side. so it was interesting to see these two campaigns next to each other, jake. >> all right, miguel marquez, it's suozzi headquarters in new york. let's check in now with the white house, because president biden just put out a statement about his party's win in new york. and with that story, let's go to cnn's mj lee, who is at the white house. mj. what does president biden have to say this evening? >> yeah, this is actually a new

statement that we've just gotten from the biden campaign manager. it doesn't actually mention tom suozzi by name. interestingly but in terms of what the messages it couldn't be more explicit. it starts with the words donald trump lost again tonight. it goes on to say when republicans run on trump's extreme agenda, even in a republican health seat, voters reject them. it also says trump and the maga extremists in the house are already paying the political price for derailing a by deal to secure our borders and fix our broken immigration system. obviously, as you've been talking about all night, immigration and the border has been such a big issue in this race. and when i was talking to a biden campaign official earlier, they pointed out that suozzi actually didn't even get a chance to run ads on republicans walking away from that border deal and they feel like this is a good sign for democrats at this issue in this criticism has really resonated. i think also jake the suozzi campaign, we saw a model for

how democrats are having to sort navigate the political reality that they have a very unpopular leader of the party that's president biden. of course, we saw suozzi really keeping his distance from president biden in his victory speech earlier tonight, didn't even mention the president. so that there's a balancing act that we are continuing to see. democrats having to juggle up throughout the country. >> all right, mj lee at the white house for us. thank you so much and however unpopular, joe biden might prove it is obviously a good day for biden and for democrats and a bad one for trump and republicans. >> it is, this was before court, george santos was expelled just a few. just start with one that was read. and tonight it is blue and tom suozzi will be the congressman again from the district. here we are wrapped about 87%. so just look at that. no, i did not expect that. that's a shellac, but that is a shellacking and it could be that a bit of the margin jim, let's give a bit of the margin,

maybe the weather, but let's also not give the republicans the excuse of the whether democrats voted to. yes, they may have voted early. scott jennings made a great point earlier. republicans maybe want to start putting votes in the bank. it might help, but, but look, you vote earlier, you've learned election day. those are the rules. them the rules, and he won he won what's, happening to my point and you're also making this point, but more suddenly, which is an van rated earlier van jones who is the genius that told republicans that they shouldn't vote early. >> donald trump, that they're >> trying to shoot thousand, 20. i mean, that's republicans. should we voting early, everybody should be voting early. i mean, who cares? both parties should want every eligible voter to vote. sure >> and make it as easy as possible for every eligible voter to vote. >> so if that's their strategy and that got, and then they got hamstrung by the bad weather that also is donald trump's fault. anywhere. i interrupted. that's okay. >> tom suozzi is winning and he's winning convincingly. he is almost 13,000 votes ahead right now and you're right to the special election for what

was a republican seat. the margin is surprising. so how does he do it on number one in the smaller piece of the district, but critical for the democrats, queen's, the actual part that is new york city he runs up here are pretty good, right? 62%, but got about 6,000 vote margin there. if you've come that come for that a little less than that, but 6,000 votes, that's in the democratic. you heard him thank labor tonight. very important in this part of the district right here helping turn out votes. a lot of that done again, organized labor has a very good early voting program and you come in here, not nassau county. this is the part that will be studied again it's one special election, one special election. so don't project everything through november. however, this will be closely studied. was it just tom suozzi was no name, was it how he handled immigration, was it how he handled israel wasn't how he handled the economy. that'll all be studied now, because in the suburban part of the district that george santos, one when he won the seat in 2022, he's getting think 53% of the vote and we're, but maybe that margin closes a little bit, but 8,000 votes there i remember i said a little shy of 8,000 votes there. so you did what he had to do in the democratic area, but he also won in the

more suburban area here, the more affluent, the more highly educated part of the district that will be the part that is studied doubt because this seat now it turns blue, right? so let's come back let's come back out to the big map and let's come to her. the house is right now. again that was read when george santos had it. right? you had this gentleman in the house tonight. mr. lawler. he's going to be worried about this, right? because this is a district joe biden carried. he's going to say, okay, what just happened there, because that used to be a democratic district as well. i mentioned him because he was in the house today, but let's come out to the full map and just show you some districts here. so again, this might get over done by people, but that was 18 this morning, right house districts held by republicans that joe biden carried, that was 18 this morning when you're trying to figure out what did we learn tonight? this is where democrats are going to start they're going to start in the districts that joe biden carried most of these districts, not all are somewhat similar to this, meaning they're suburban. they tend to be more highly educated, more and more affluent than the national averages. so the democrats, going to look at

these saying if we want to win back the house majority there's your building blocks doesn't mean because so as he won, that the democrats, when these seeds, but that's where go to that. so this is the challenges you look ahead to november. >> yeah. we get good candidates like suozzi to run in these races, right here. but here to me, it's the most important thing. tomorrow or next week when suozzi comes down and get sworn in remember the house republicans impeach the homeland security secretary by one vote right? there majority has now shrunk. if that's only by one vote. but in a very narrow majority, abby was making the point earlier nancy pelosi had an hour majority excuse me, get quite a bit done. a succession. kevin mccarthy now speaker johnson, have a narrow majority, haven't done all that much. guess what? it's about to be smaller. >> so i remember when nancy pelosi first got elected speaker the house, and i think 2006, right. during the bush years, one of the reasons she was able to win the house back from the republicans is a bunch of moderate to conservative democrats that she called the majority makers you heard aoc

earlier tonight talk about how there needs to be people who disagree within the democratic party so that they can get the majority. she said that's i said what about a guy like suozzi who doesn't even want biden to campaign. she's like the most important thing is that we get the majority so here's my question. suozzi was obviously given some rope to be in get some some leeway to be independent to bad mouth. biden to distance himself from other democrats are republicans who are the majority-makers for the majority right now. are they able to do that? our congressman lawler are the lalota and other republicans who represent biden districts. are they allowed to be independent or are they forced to stay in line? so that donald trump doesn't start attacking them >> you just answered your question. i did. yeah >> well, what speaker johnson have the smarts to go into a

room and say, i understand mike lawler, you're not from louisiana like bay. you have to run a different campaign. you might even have to say i disagree with the speaker. speaker johnson is smart enough to say, do it, do what you need to do to win. kevin mccarthy? i think was smart enough to say for all the criticism of kevin mccarthy, they weren't terribly great. the governing part. but in terms of the political part, however, you answered your own question, donald trump will give them the right way. and so i'll try. so you're gonna does masir pilip again? just the nassau county republican party think we need somebody else in november, they picked her to run this there will be primaries in all these places. there'll be primaries here, and trump is on a path barring some huge thing in south carolina week from saturday to be the republican nominee. and he just simply does not play that way. >> yeah. and dana bash, when congressman mike gallagher, who is out of a hollywood type casting for a republican congressman, military hero, good-looking guys, smarty chairs. the select committee on

the chinese communist party when he showed some independent independence last week and said, hey, i don't think there's any reason to vote to impeach the secretary of homeland security, mayorcas it was a rough week for him. and then that week ended with him announcing he's not going to run for reelection. so i think there is something to be discussed here when it comes to how much republicans are able to keep a majority if they don't allow people to be independent. >> there's a ton of then there's a ton of them retiring. >> yeah. >> including mike pence's brother who just say, i've had enough >> cathy mcmorris rodgers is another one >> yeah. let's keep talking about that and more specifically, here in washington, what the already narrow house republican majority is going to look like because we talk about all of these issues, immigration and about whether or not republicans can act in the best interests of their district, or if they have to tow the party

slash trump line but what it all comes down to, and i'm getting texts from republican strategists who are very worried. is the notion of just chaos and the inability to govern. and that really had an impact on what we saw in the special election. and remember, we're only eight months away from the real election. these races are all going at. this race is going to be run again, or at least there will be a race run in this district and then all the other house races. i mean, another way to think of it as a shift in values if you're focused on legislating, it's disorder. if you're focused on messaging, hey, maybe it's pretty good. and one of the things that we were shown with the debate over the speaker is that there could be a small faction of people who only care about the commercials messaging being in the media ecosystem. and they can spoil it for everyone else. so will there be some will the next race sort of pull people in a direction of saying, look, we actually have to pass something

that we're going to convince people that we should be in charge or is it just still so valuable to large parts of the party who are following trump to just do the messaging part of it, play the part, do those performances. and don't worry too much about whether or not something passes because you don't want to hand a victory to biden anyway, it's something that just accomplishments, it's even just passing a messaging agenda, which republicans have had a very difficult time doing. and it's easy to to forget that the whole ouster of kevin mccarthy happened in this congress. have it only a few months ago and that led to so much back-and-forth in disarray and the inability of this republican majority simply to pass messaging bills weekend we got to try to push an argue that they did this on this issue and that issue in another they weren't able to do some of that at the beginning of the congress, but things started to become much more complicated after they raise the national debt limit that caused a lot of finger-pointing, a bad blood

then the orcas government open for a couple of weeks and the punching, the kicking the can down the road for that. but this one vote will be so significant one vote tonight would a stop the mayorkas impeachment, and there could be a biden impeachment coming sometime. how will these swing district republicans vote on joe biden's impeachment? if it does come to that, that's gonna be a big question. one less vote will make it harder. >> you know, jeff, i want before you make your point, play. once again, the part of now congressman elect suozzi is a statement or his speech tonight where he talks about the message that he believes his victory is sending here to washington let's send a message to our friends. run in the congress these days stopped running around for trump and start running the country >> so interesting and what i'm wondering tonight are 17 republicans in particular listening to that?

>> who are they? the 17 republicans in biden districts. so that is something that is going to be so interesting and enslaved them our fellow new yorkers. >> yeah, for sure exactly a lot of the house majority here is going to run through either new york or california. and a handful of other states in the middle. but up until now, mano is, you know, very well the shift in, really in the last month or so, even some of the more moderate republicans like don bacon of my home state of nebraska has been much more willing to go out there. he has a primary challenge. others do as well, but that's what i wonder tonight. well, some of those republicans are be taking a lesson that and trump may not be good for us in the long term, but i think something else instructive in the biden campaign statement tonight they mentioned donald trump four times they once again are trying to do one thing above all in this election to make this entire election about donald trump any often helps them out with that case. but again, as so many people have said, this evening, i think there are some lessons tonight,

but they're limited as well because the general election is going to be much more fully engaged. but a test run that show because all is not lost for democrats and a lot of people in the last week, there's been a lot of bedwetting. we say that a lot. this is calm that among democrats, yeah, no shocker. i know you don't want to carry the one thing that republicans have been good at in this congress has finger pointing, and i can tomorrow morning, when the house republicans go behind closed doors and they have their weekly conference meeting, there is going to be a lot of finger-pointing, not just about everything that went wrong or about the candidate, or just about expelling george santos. that was one of the one that's one of the reasons why a lot of members were upset about the initial mayorkas impeachment falling. also ousting kevin mccarthy that led to his resignation. there now, another seats short because of that until that spes special election. so there's just going to be so much anger when republicans come and meet tomorrow. and i think we talked about on the podcast, i was saying mccarthy, there has been less fundraising for certain people. there been less

infrastructure support because the new speaker is simply doesn't have any of that experience that's not something you want go being in, i think to test what you're talking about, geoff, there there are some theories that are tested even if you can't take away full lessons. and one of them is, what are the limits of nationalizing erase around issues like immigration and crime, et cetera. can you kind of trick yourself into thinking, well, this is a slam dunk because here we are yet again at another special election racing. it really seemed like that republican was going to do well and it's the democrat who wins. and i think kinda processing that and thinking about what it means going forward is sort of worth it. it's such an important point because in order to replicate this, in this kind of district, you have to have a democrat willing to do what tom suozzi did, which is stand up at the very first second of his victory speech saying, i'm not a member of the squad. i'm not i'm worried about my party and and also just more importantly

on the issues >> but tonight they're a member of >> the squad was here, right? i see herself and she didn't exactly throw him under the bus for not saying i'm one of you or for not leaning into some of those really progressive positions. so having that flexibility as you guys talked about earlier, is meaningful and primary challenges are going to happen and primary this will happen and that's a much more uncertain thing in this case, these candidates were selected by the party bosses, essentially as it was in the old days. yeah, the primaries often are out of the party's control. >> yeah i mean, the candidates do matter. the end of the day suozzi has that established brand people knew who he was. mondaire jones for instance, he's running against mike lawler in that district that malala was on earlier tonight. he's a much different type of democrat than tom suozzi add something lawler would take advantage of. will that make a difference when the top of the ticket will have such a huge impact down ticket that's another question. >> okay, everybody up next, how republicans are reacting to this huge loss? the democrats in new york and what it means for the battle to head on

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winning big in new york tonight that tom suozzi, his victory in the special congressional election as he easily defeated his republican opponent in the race, maasie pillow, picking up the seat that was previously held by the now expelled public and congressman george santos republicans very slim majority in the house. now, even slimmer tonight. let's go to capitol hill where cnn's melanie zanona is getting reaction to tonight's results. obviously, melanie, speaker john it's his office was watching this vote very closely. what are you hearing from republicans overall about that already slim majority shrinking even more. >> yeah. well, kaitlan, there's some predictable finger pointing inside the gop tonight with some republicans turning their anger towards fellow republicans who voted to spell george santos as they're already razor thin majority is now set to get even slimmer one republican lawmaker told me that the gop lawmakers who led the charge to expel santos oh, republicans everywhere. an apology and 10 million. another republican, troy nehls told me

a little bit ago we should have never brought the santos vote to the floor. my collins, a georgia republican, wrote on social media. so who still thinks republicans helping democrats kickout santos was a good idea. and santa himself weighing in in, simply writing on social media minus one. now, i interviewed steve scalise, the house majority leader, a little bit earlier tonight. and i asked him, is they're going to be any regret inside the gop if democrats do end up flipping this seat tonight, he didn't go quite as far. he said, it is what it is. and he also downplayed the national significance of a potential republic clicking lost in new york three, but no doubt kaitlan, this is going to have massive implications for the slim majority and the gop's ability to govern. and so those frustrations and floor fights the only likely to go louder in the coming days, katelyn? >> yeah, an immediate impact. melanie zanona. thank you. and we are now hearing from the former president donald trump about tonight's results and what it means. cnn's kristen holmes is in florida covering the trump campaign. what are we hearing from trump? christian

well, just moments ago, donald trump posted on truth social. i'm going to read it in real time because i'm just now seeing it. any essentially attacks namazi, philip for not endorsing him, not running on his name because republicans just don't learn, but maybe she was still a democrat. i have an almost 99% endorsement success rate in the primaries and a very good number in the general elections as well. but i just watched this very foolish woman, maasie melissa pilip receipt running in a race where she didn't endorse me and try to straddle the fence when she would have easily won if she understood anything about modern day politics in america. maga, which is most of the republican party, stayed home and it will always, unless it is treated with the respect that it deserves. stayed out of the race. i want to be loved in quotes >> give us a real >> candidate in the district for november. suozzi. i know him well, it can be easily we've beaten. not sure what

that i want to be loved in quotes is. but clearly upset that mazi pilip did not endorse him or did not try to run on his name at all. i will remind you that his team does not want him getting involved in races, that he can't win because they don't want him attached to those kind of races. however obviously, trump took this a little bit personally and is now lashing out >> kristen holmes. thank you. and scott jennings i mean, first, let's set some things straight, which is that she did say in this race that she would not endorse trump if he was convicted that she didn't believe she said no one's above the law. she didn't believe that he would be qualified to represent republicans if that was the case. she did recently say, finally that she did vote for him in 2020, but is what he's saying here, which is that in a district that joe biden won by eight points more, maga is the answer. >> well, there are some

republican officials who believe she should have said right out of the gate, she voted for trump and he's not wrong. she wasn't democrat. and >> so he was a democrat should wait after the race to change her registration. i believe so. you know, he he may have a point >> on a couple of these issues in a low turnout special election did she leave votes on the field? >> i don't know and it'd be different november, maybe there are some other people here. i mean, some folks are talking about this this fella, daniel norbert, who was also running against santos before the special election started. so i don't know which way we're going to head here, but obviously when you lose a race people are going to look for reasons why you might have lost. and i'm not surprised to see him picking it out, but there's not eight points more maga out there. not not in this district. like he's just a cry baby man. let's just do you are not the answer to everybody's question. if you're just not and it's just sad to see him you can just imagine just

they're just work a little thumbs off just so upset that somebody lost also didn't kiss his ring. a lot of people who kiss his ring do lose. and that's the problem. >> we've got to figure out what the i want to be loved and quotes >> you're going to take a moment to do with these. he's saying that she didn't endorse and she didn't tie herself in no ten because she wanted to be loved as what that's my reading of it as someone who covered him, i could be wrong and i'm not going to read donald mind. >> i do think it gives us a little bit of insight into the political strategy of, of trump world here for november. you talked any trump advisers, you know? expanding the electorate to bring more new trump maga aligned voters into the electorate. they think is their path to success far more than winning back over a huge swaths of the middle that they lost to democrats in 2018 to joe biden in 2020. and i think you sort of see that here two that he thinks the path to political success is just more

magnification of the electorate. >> that is exactly right. that is what they think leading up to 2020, that was the strategy. it did not work. the problem with this strategy from the trump world that comes frankly directly from trump is that it doesn't work. we actually have data points that show in 2,018.20, 20.20, 22, ramping up the maga backfired on republicans in some key places where they could have one in arizona, for example if they do it again, what good luck, but it's just that the evidence is not there. and republicans also have like a tactical problem here. the parties health as a farmer, like an apparatus, infrastructure standpoint, it has bad signs over the last year, the reasons they are losing these special elections are getting candidates who are untested unproven are partly because donald trump has made it difficult for people able to come out of those primaries. and specifically a place this thumb or making it harder to have them have those type of messages that allow them to win those voters back. and so, you

know, when we think about what's happening at the rnc with the tumble there and how the trump has made the kind of imprint on the party apparatus, even the ways that they haven't embraced early voting on something like a snow today that comes back to bite them, right? like you have republican party plowing roads today. you know, those are things that the party could do differently and there's open discussion within the party. but because donald trump's political imprint is so large, they not only have a messaging problem of political problem, they have a party apparatus, infrastructure problem, partially because it's been so pulled to his in his everyday when you know, i mean, you to know this area better than anyone else at the table. i mean, when you hear him say that the reason the turnout wasn't what they expected it to be. he says it's because she wasn't maga enough, but is it because of scott's point earlier that they don't, republicans have not actively embraced early voting but there's probably a number of reasons why she lost the note. as i said, we're going to downgrade them for full disclosure for somebody who was endorsed by donald trump and he was gracious when he did it. and i was grateful

for that endorsement. and i and i won >> i >> actually sort of understand the dynamic of xi's. they going to tor and they did tore this woman as a right wing radical republican anyway. so take what you got to scott's point in a low turnout race, you're going to motivate people who otherwise wouldn't come out to vote, to come out and two of belmar congress who spoke this program, they want to win. so if you want to win and you want to govern it are based on your policies not to say you cross the line on things, but if he can help you win, why wouldn't you want that endorsement? and i've seen this over the years when people say, i don't want that because so they're going to label the label. yeah. anyway, yes. take it and run i also think that democrats chose the right candidate. it was someone who was tested he's known been known in this district for over 30 years. he is someone who has been able to get crossover votes in races

where he's needed them. and that was a good choice. and he had the message of unifying people. and i think let's see if that is a message that can go until november >> jake, back to you. >> all right, thanks so much. kaitlan, let's go to cnn's lauren fox, who is at the headquarters of republican that mazi pilip in east meadow, new york. lauren republicans saw this race as a high profile test for their ability to campaign on border security, to keep a seat that had been in republican hands that did not work out tonight. what are republicans saying is the reason yeah, republicans really thought that there wasn't going to be a better district to test drive that message on >> immigration, then right here that is because there's a migrant shelter that was built last summer more on the edge of this district. the headlines that you hear here in new york so pertinent to so many voters in this district who were

worried about so crime, who are worried about the influx of migrants to the new york area. in fact, i talked to one dad at a diner this morning who said he's scared to take his kids into the city because of what he's seeing on the news, republicans were really seizing on that trying to make this issue front and center. but tom suozzi kind of flip the scrip to because he actually showed up at an event that mazi pilip dydx, where she was talking talking about immigration, waited for her to finish and then had his own press conference took reporter questions and argued that he had a solution and mazi pilip was out there, just can't campaigning against the issue. i think suozzi is message here that he sees a bipartisan path forward that he would have supported the senate bill that really only survived about 48 hours in the united states senate still gave him an opening to neutralize that issue. and, you know, this issue, if it couldn't play a new york three, it's really unclear where across the country country it's going to

be able to play as the predominant issue. i should note every single voter i talked to set immigration was their top issue. it just turned out that they trusted democrats more are then republicans perhaps to handle it. >> yeah, with this specific set of candidates, right? because it's suozzi who is pushing a willingness to compromise with republicans, even a more moderate message on the immigration. then you hear from a lot of democrats and then mazi pilip, who is kind of saddled with the inability of republicans right now to govern any real way. so anyway, lauren, thanks so much. let's talk more about the issue set that had an influence on the race with cnn political director david chalian, david immigration, border security. they did play majorly into tonight's race, the way that lauren said, right? >> there's no doubt about it. and look at the national landscape of the immigration issue. according to our most recent poll from the end of january. so president biden's approval rating, jake, as you

know, on immigration, it's his worst tested across every issue. it's at 30% approval, 70% disapproval we also asked folks, and again, this was a nationwide poll whether or not the us should prioritize deporting all undocumented immigrants versus providing a pathway to citizenship in 2019, only 15% said the priority should be deporting all undocumented immigrants >> that has >> doubled in 2024 now to 31%. and that's overall, when you look at it just among republicans, jake 32% of republicans said the priority should be deporting undocumented immigrants. that was in 2019. now a majority of republicans, 54% say the priority for the us should be deporting undocumented immigrants. and that is why you saw two thirds of the immigration ad spending this race coming from mazi pilip. and why you saw at the very

end, tom suozzi trying to engage on that and flip the script as you were noting to say, he was part of the solution on this issue not just raising it as a problem. >> interesting stuff. david chalian, thanks so much so there is a riskier dana that democrats think, oh, you know, immigration is not going to be a liability for us. i don't think any smart democrats would say that. but the truth is, this is very specific to this set of circumstances. this, these two candidates, suozzi positioning himself as a moderate to conservative on the issue. and in an era in an environment where democrats we're trying to come up with a compromise and republicans are the ones that chunked it. >> totally anecdotally, i was in the district the day after republicans shanked it to use your term. >> and >> i heard from voters that they were very now these are obviously very well-informed

voter, but they were they were at the polling station, they were voting early. and several of them said to me that they don't want to vote for the republican because it's clearly impossible to get a solution on the issue of immigration. they said border, the border problem, the immigration issue, the migrant issue in their district was a top issue for them. and that the fact that republicans killed that bipartisan deal put them over the edge to vote for tom suozzi and immigration was their top issue. so i think that there's something to that, but i do want to underscore the main point that you made, which is that if you have a democrat who just fundamentally doesn't believe in being as tough as tom suozzi is on the migrant issue, then it's not going to work politically. >> and i think was not forget also how the republicans even handled this bipartisan border

deal. i mean, they were quick to dismiss it even before the deal was even reach. i mean, donald trump tried to kill this before arrows actually anything to look at? and it's able to republican leadership. i mean, at least a phonics was out almost immediately saying that blood is build a deal that was region well, nearly five months of negotiations said that it should be killed. the speaker, the house, a couple of hours after his release. these are incredibly complex policy issues to immediately dismiss it out of hand. perhaps looks to some voters we're following this pretty closely as clearly politically expedient without actually trying to solve a real problem >> look, there have been i was just going to add that the arguments wyhe as he made fundamentally, it's like they're the dog that caught the car was like do this thing. >> and >> then blow it up. and i think he was able to talk about that in a way that voters could understand that didn't feel like kind of parliamentary nonsense. it felt like, oh, yeah, that's a good point. it was their idea. why don't they want it? and maybe that's something other democrats that's can take away. >> i mean, there have been

bright warning signs audie as you said earlier, we have so many elections now to look at 20:18, 2020, 2022. the suburbs have been bright red warning signs for republicans in the era of donald trump even before them in some degrees. so one thing that kinda want a bit under the radar in some respects, it was the message on abortion here, but i think i was just talking to a democratic strategist who said this is our playbook right now. it's not going to work everywhere, but they can neutralize the challenge on immigration by going after abortion rights. but the trump problem perhaps is the biggest takeaway from this. i mean, he was focusing on the candidate calling her a foolish person. never mind any introspection, which of course he doesn't do. but there are big warning signs for republicans and these suburban districts which the party needs. >> i do think though we should note that i could see this issue, immigration and the refusal of republicans to compromise being used to an advantage by a democrat like

safe per instance bob casey in pennsylvania, more center left i don't know that joe biden, who you saw has a disastrous approval rating on this issue, only 30% approval, 70% disapproval, specifically on the border and immigration. i don't know that president biden himself is going to be able to pivot on this even though he's obviously trying heard the statement. the statement that mj lee read from the white house where they're trying to talk about how the republicans are refusing to embrace border security and immigration reform. that would be a neat trick if he could turn it around. but i don't know while i do think that it's possible that democrats running for reelection this year in the house and senate will be able to maybe make that argument. i don't know that somebody that people blame the border problem for will be able to do that. i don't know what you think audie. >> i mean, i want to add a point a kind of a footnote which is that as soon, as soon as he opened his mouth, there was a protester who was there

too, to criticize this administration's handling of the war in gaza. and specifically numbers of deaths of civilians and palestinians. this is going to be a problem if every time there's a democratic victory, there's that moment where the cameras have to be like, wait, who is that? what are they saying? well, guess what? they're saying. you're using the phrase genocide joe at this is one of those things where i think the administration hasn't quite found a way to talk about it but i don't think it's going away and i just wanted to raise that even though in this race it didn't put the candidate over a pilip, didn somehow, when the whole thing because of that. but it's just a thing that it's like it's going to go from being a footnote in every article to being the issue. i >> don't plan in michigan the next primary on the calendar after south carolina is the michigan primary on february 27, republican and democratic. it's already a huge concern for the white house, for the biden campaign. what's going to happen right after that, he'll be giving his state of the union address on march 7. the white house is already worried about a protest, but at least till have one more democratic

member in front of him in the house. but it's still an issue coming up next the big takeaways from this special election and what the results tell us about the year ahead. the white house role of congress on the line we'll be right back after this sunday >> laura coates examines the federal criminal charges against former president trump. is it going to be >> difficult to meet this burden of proof? how strong is the government's case? the whole story with anderson cooper sunday at eight on cnn engineered for the spontaneous a dual action formula with the active ingredients of viagra and sialic. faster acting long-lasting grabbed the moment. get started at row slash sparks >> know yeah in this great

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within the next 20 for hours. >> laura coates live tomorrow at 11 eastern on cnn >> democrats had just picked up a another seat in the house, representatives, handing a serious blow to republicans, and they're already slim grip on power we're breaking down the results from tonight's special election in new york with democrat tom suozzi is big when and what it could all mean for the presidential race. let's go back to john king john, obviously we're just hearing the white house that president biden has called tom suozzi. now the question is, without extrapolating too much, how are they reading into these results? >> i think you make the key point. how do you try to find lessons without overstating the importance of one special election. let's just go back and look very quickly at the results. so what you have or is it mccracker in what was viewed? who does have very close race kaitlan though, with an eight point lead at the moment in most of the votes counted. so that's an impressive win for the democrat, democrat tom suozzi. the conversation now in both democratic and republican campaigns, including the trump and the biden campaign is, was

it just about him or was there something in the message? was there a key add that swung the race? what was it that's what they're going to try to figure out why you don't expect new york, of course, to be competitive in the presidential election. but if you want to be mount number one, if you're the biden campaign and you're the democratic party, you want to win congressional elections, right? so you want to get the house back. >> there >> were 18 districts that biden won that were held by republicans. now there will be 17 once tom suozzi is sworn in. so the first thing you look at is, can we get these house districts back, write this is something that happened here. the makeup of the district, the fact that donald trump is back in the news. some democrats think that kaitlan tonight, that donald trump is back in the news of late and maybe that's helping them there. so that's the house. so now let's come to the presidential race and look at 20:20 and you think did what happened? in queens and nassau county, does it have anything to do with this? if we get as we expect the joe biden donald trump rematch, here's one way to look at it. if you want to look at it this way, these races, as you know, very well, kaitlan, the close battleground states are decided

where in the suburbs, were as tom suozzi district in the suburbs. and so you can look here you can look at the pennsylvania suburbs, for example, a very close state just tonight, this is bucks county, this is the 2020 presidential election. but just tonight, the democrats also want a special election here for a state legislative seat that was hotly contested. so the biden campaign celebrating that saying, look, yes the president's approval ratings are down, his views as david challenges said, his numbers in immigration are terrible. there's numbers on the economy are not great, but what the democrats are arguing is when we have elections, when we actually have people vote, we're doing okay, especially in the places that matters. so what they will do is they will look at this map and they will say is what happened in nassau county tonight. is there any one thing we can at least study now that we're early in the year as we get later in the year, arizona, michigan, wisconsin, georgia, the key battleground states, kaitlan or won or lost in the suburbs. so tonight's win for the democrats in the suburbs. it's going to trust me, it's going to be the young unpeeled by both the trump and the biden

campaigns absolutely. john king, thank you. and van jones, as you look at this and the white house is looking at this. i mean, it's a bit reassuring or it is reassuring to them that a democrat can win in the suburbs. but let me ask you the same question in the sense of not taking too much from one single special election. what does the white house? >> take from tonight? >> well, look, i mean, it shows the democrats can be tough on the border credibly, and you can't, you don't have to just leave that for the to beat the crap out of on that, especially since republicans now refuse do anything about it. so that's a good thing. but we still have the same problems this week we had last week, which is that biden still has not been able to deal with the age issue appropriately yet. and i've been thinking about a lot. i think he just needs to own into it, own it, and lean into it. ronald reagan he made it a part of his shtick. he would say is like stuff like thomas jefferson said so and so when i was there, let the crowd laugh and then he would move on. i think i think i think there's i think joe biden should say, i'm for grandpa economics. i

think you should just own it and say, you know what, you know what your grandpa wants, he wants you to get a good job. that's why unemployment is low. notes. your grandpa wants he wants you to save your money and have a good for one k. that's why the stock market is up. know what your grandpa wants, he wants you to drive safely. that's why gas prices are down. he should just say, i'm my grandpa and i am doing things that grandpas care about. other people want to be in court all the dom with with dolly convictions and lying about the border. i'm your grandpa, i'm taking care of you. >> if you could just own it, you can. then he's like eminem an eight mile. he made the rap joke about himself and his opponents had nothing else to say. that's what biden should do. grandpa economics. i mean, i think the white house has tried versions of that. having biden joke around about his age and all of that and that works fine in that moment. but the problem is, when he's out and about and does something or make some mistake in a very public way, like he did during his speech. i'll speak when he called the president of egypt,

the president of mexico, things like that undermine the case that that it's innocuous. and this is the challenge. i mean, look, this is the challenge. the white house is very clear eyed about it what they're really hoping is that what happened tonight? is essentially what happens in november, which is that voters go into the voting booth and they say, not thrilled about x, y, and z. but here are my choices. this guy or that die, and they choose the person who is the least objectionable to them. and that is what elections are all about. >> but you have the demented grandpa and the good grandpa. >> right then >> you just you neutralize the issue by saying he got the metagraph. i'm not saying the grant back and i would think of work >> and the age issue is going to matter bleed into it, lean

away from it at 6% of americans don't think he can serve another term and look at this gatt tonight, ran away from joe biden, ran away and he didn't give joe biden even get just didn't get jumped on by the candidate because we let people in our party have their own opinion. unlike people here, i'd be in a coal. >> it's easy to run away. in a special election. is a lot harder to do in all these different especially in swing states when that presidential campaign is sitting right on top but said he, and i mean, you talk to voters for a living for the run-up podcast. this is truly what you do every single day. so i wonder i mean, what are you hearing from voters themselves, not just the poll numbers that we're looking at on this issue. >> yeah. i mean, honestly, i feel like the last couple of weeks with the rise in prominence of age in the focus on biden has really brought the campaign to where voters and our conversations have been for a year, right? when we have been telling people that it's likely for biden to be the democratic nominee. people well i've been shocked. i mean, they did not fathom the possibility that this is the type of candidate that will be back they saw themselves as kind of doing an emergency option in 2020 and that for us

is the main feeling we got over the last year. yes, they're shocked about donald trump, particularly with the indictments and the reality of him as a kind of character. but that shock was shared with biden. so i think there were white house on the campaign are now dealing with that reality and that's kinda brought the race to where it was always going to be. they not only have a message question and i think this race kind of speaks to the ways that they can fix that. they can focus on things outside of the candidate. they can talk about abortion rights. they can talk about the kind of contrast between denim, the chaotic party. they can focus on governance but when, specifically, when we think about the top of the ticket, they have a messenger problem. >> they have >> the fact that the person who is filtering through that of who has, who is leading the party on that. it's someone voters fundamentally don't think can, should and can serve another four years. now, they can give voters other reasons to still back him, but they're just going to be having to oversee for calm. they're already kind of fundamental feeling, which is that they didn't expect this guy that be back and they're going to have to give the voters some other

messengers as well. yes. i mean, it's going to have >> to be other people carrying the burden. a lot of a lot of this campaign on the democratic side that kamala harris is a lot it's of other folks who are trying to be the next in line, the next time this comes around for the democrats, messengers do matter and look, tonight was a big victory for democrats. they picked the right candidate who had the right message and had the money behind him. now, we all know that the road to democrats taking back the house runs directly through new york. so let's see if they can get the right candidates. you know, the republicans are going to be regrouping tomorrow to decide whether they're going to keep the same candidate or find someone better. we need to look at all of those seats that we lost two years ago and do our best to get the best messenger with the best financial backing, the best candidate, so that we can take, take the house back. that is of critical importance as well. yeah. hakeem jeffries watching that very closely, more news on cnn after that big one for democrats, after a quick break

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