it's time to do what bernanke said he was going to do. and to 11 and to 12.the balance sheet. that is, get in the q t big time and get rate s back up above, you know, the flat line in terms of real rates. that is after inflation, because if you don't do that, you're just to fuel massive speculation. and that's what they did. and then trump took credit for a huge bubble in the stock market that was nothing had nothing to do with what he accomplished. it was just a result of this massive flood of federal reserve credit. so i think you know, you have to look at the point in time in which things happen. you know, there are obviously some fundamental principles are truism about policy, but the business cycle is important and when you got into 2017, you were in the sweet spot, you were in the middle, if not the back end of what had been a weak but long lasting recovery from the great recession. and so was time that republicans conventional, you know, conservative, eager, conservative republicans would have been saying normal lies normalize the fiscal posture, norma

it's time to do what bernanke said he was going to do. and to 11 and to 12. the balance sheet. that is, get in the q t big time and get rate s back up above, you know, the flat line in terms of real rates. that is after inflation, because if you don't do that, you're just to fuel massive speculation. and that's what they did. and then trump took credit for a huge bubble in the stock market that was nothing had nothing to do with what he accomplished. it was just a result of this massive flood of federal reserve credit. so i think you know, you have to lookt point in time in which things happen. you know, there are obviously somemental principles are truism about policy, but the business cycle is important and when you got into 2017, you were inhe middle, if not the back end of what had been a weak but long lasting recovery from the great recession. and so was time that republicans conventional, you know, conservative, eager, conservative republicans would have been sayingc normal lies normalize the fiscal posture, normalize us interest rates. and the fed posi

it's time to do what bernanke said he was going to do. and to 11 and to 12. balance sheet.q t big time and get rate s back up above, you know, the flat line in terms of real rates. that is after inflation, because if you don't do that, you're speculation. and that's what they did. and then trump took credit for a hu market that was nothing had nothing to do with what he accomplished. it was just a result of this massivef federal reserve credit. so i think you know, you have to look at the point time in which things happen. you know, there are obviously some fundamental principles are truism about policy, but the business cycle is important and when you got into 2017, you were in the sweet spot, you were mid of what had been a weak but long lasting recovery from the great recession. and so was time that republicans conventional, you know, conservative, eager, conservative republicans would have been saying normal lies normalizesture, normalize us interest rates. and the fed position, get it out yo massive. 120 billion per month bond buying, you know, insanity. but of course,

it's time to do what bernanke said he was going to do. and to 11 and to 12.et. that is, get in the q t big time and getnx rate s back up above, you know, the flat line in terms of real rates. that is after inflation, because if you don't do that, you're just to fuel massive speculation. and that's what they did. and then trump took credit for a huge bubble in the stock market that was nothing had nothing to do with what he aomplished. a rs massive flood of federal reserve credit. so i think you know, you have■óo look at the point in time in which things happen. you know, there are obviously some fundamental principles are truism about policy, but the business cycle is important and when you got into 2017, you were et spot, you were in the middle, if not the back end of what had been a weak but long lasting recovery from the great recession. and so was time that republicans zu know, conservative, eager, conservative republicans would have been saying normal lies normalize the fiscal posture, normalize us interest rates. and the fed position, get it out of, you

it's time to do what bernanke said he was going to do. and to 11 and to 12. and that is normalize the balance sheet. that is, get in the q t big time and get rate s back up above, you know, the flat line in terms of real rates. that is after inflation, because if you don't do that, you're just to fuel massive speculation. and that's what they did. and then trump took credit for a huge bubble in the stock market that was nothing had nothing to do with what he accomplished. it was just a result of this massive flood of federal reserve credit. so i think you know, you have to look at the point in time in which things happen. you know, there are obviously some fundamental principles are truism about policy, but the business cycle is important and when you got into 2017, you were in the sweet spot, you were in the middle, if not the back end of what had been a weak but long lasting recovery from the great recession. and so was time that republicans conventional, you know, conservative, eager, conservative republicans would have been saying normal lies normalize th

it's time to do what bernanke said he was going to do. and to 11 and to 12. and that is normalize the balance sheet. that is, get in the q t big time and get rate s back up above, you know, the flat line in terms of real rates. that is after inflation, because if you don't do that, you're just to fuel massive speculation. and that's what they did. and then trump took credit for a huge bubble in the stock market that was nothing had nothing to do with what he accomplished. it was just a result of this massive flood of federal reserve credit. so i think you know, you have to look at the point in time in which things happen. you know, there are obviously some fundamental principles are truism about policy, but the business cycle is important and when you got into 2017, you were in the sweet spot, you were in the middle, if not the back end of what had been a weak but lo lasting recovery from the great recession. and so was time that republicans conventional, you know, conservative, eager, conservative republicans would have been saying normal lies normalize the

it's time to do what bernanke said he was going to do. and to 11 and to 12. and that is noalize the balance sheet. that is, get in the q t big time and get rate s back up above you know, the flat line in terms of real rates. that is after inflation, because if you don't do that, you're just to fuel massive speculation. and that's what they did. and then trump took credit for a huge bubble in the stock market that was nothing had nothing to do with what he accomplished. it was just a result of this massive flood of federal reserve credit. so i think you know, you have to look at the point in time in which things happen. you know, there are obviously some fundamental principles are truism about policy, but the business cycle is important and when you got into 2017, you were in the sweet spot, you were in the middle, if not the back end of what had been a weak but long lasting recovery from the great recession. and so was time that republicans conventional, you know conservative eager conservative republicans would have been saying normal lies normalize the fisc

it's time to do what bernanke said he was going to do. and to 11 and to 12. and that is normalize the balance sheet. that is, get in the q t big time and get rate s back up above, you know, the flat line in terms of real rates. that is after inflation, because if you don't do that, you're just to fuel massive speculation. and that's what they did. and then trump took credit for a huge bubble in the stock market that was nothing had nothing to do with what he accomplished. it was just a result of this massive flood of federal reserve credit. so i think you know, you have to look at the point in time in which things happen. you know, there are obviously some fundamental principles are truism about policy, but the business cycle is important and when you got into 2017, you were in the sweet spot, you were in the middle, if not the back end of what had been a weak but long sting recovery from the great recession. and so was time that republicans conventional, you know, conservative, eager, conservative republicans would have been saying normal lies normalize the

bernanke's memoirs, only because you are the preliminaries , it is taking longer to get to the point. this is when your opportunity is over . i want justice to be told in my time. what does peg mean? they lock their rates to us dollars . in economics, we have something called the impossible group. in the impossible group, we say that, sir, whenever the party. a country's capital account is open. you cannot stabilize the interest rate and the land rate . you cannot have an independent interest rate in your exchange rate policy. we can do one of these two , we can do one of these two. those countries that are pegged to the dollar, like the uae, like saudi arabia , they don't have an independent monetary policy, mr. hassan khani, these are politics. their policy is the monetary policy of the federal reserve , i.e. the uae that you have given as an example , the uae, when the interest rate of the federal reserve comes to its meeting, the interest rate will go up five hundredths of a percentage point, as they say, on the same day, at the same time, the central bank of the uae, the same pol

former president reprimanded on local, state, national and international stage is i think we've seen bernanke's against him in a variety of different settings. maybe not like this, but there's nothing based on his statements today or otherwise to indicate that this will, in fact, change his behavior in got some of the implying that this was political witch hunt, the usual diatribe. >> so these using this as an opportunity is it do? do you think it was by design in some respects? >> well, there was an interesting exchange between trump and judge kaplan, no relation to me. jean carroll's attorney, roberta kaplan, a very famous attorney in her own right. and what the judge said, basically, as i know, you're trying to get me to kick you out of this rahm and i believe trump said something like i love it. much of what we saw inside the courtroom really was trump, i think at a campaign rally. but inside a courtroom, he didn't have to attend this trial. he doesn't have to attend a lot of the hearings that he's been attending. it's part of exactly what you aust read in terms of his reaction, which is th

bernanke's memoirs, just because you are preparing for it, it will take longer when your opportunityover, and i, because i want justice to be told in my time, mr. al-hassanini, should you also, in order for the conversations to become ping pong it's good to have a conversation . if there is time, i will talk about my own discussions about the literature of this field, about the experience of iran and the two countries if i have the chance, i will answer three important things that mr. hassan khani said. they lock the us dollar . in economics, we have something called the impossible triad. in the impossible triad, we say that whenever a country's capital account is open, you cannot stabilize the interest rate and the land rate . you cannot have an independent interest rate exchange rate policy. you can do one of these two. one of these two can do it. those countries that are pegged to the dollar, such as the uae and saudi arabia. they do not have an independent monetary policy, mr. hassan khani. this is their monetary policy, federal monetary policy reserved means the emirates that yo

bernanke's memoirs, just because you are the preliminaries . al-hassanini, you said that they have 160 countries they have a peg rate, what does a peg mean? they lock their interest rates to the us dollar . in economics, we have something called the impossible segane . we say that, sir, whenever the capital account of a country is open you cannot you can't stabilize the interest rate and the interest rate. you can't have an independent interest rate policy. you can have one of these two. you can have one of these two. those countries that were pegged to the dollar, like the uae, like saudi arabia, these are independent monetary policies. they don't have it, mr. hassan khani , their monetary policy is the monetary policy of the federal reserve, that is, the emirati as you mentioned, the uae, when the interest rate of the federal reserve comes to its meeting , raises the interest rate to five hundred percent, as they say, on the same day and at the same time, the central bank of the emirates applies the same policy regarding its own interest rate

elon musk and former fed chair ben bernanke. he also encourages methods such as the september 11th attacks on the united states calling that the best example to deter western countries from supporting israel. tsa telling news nation it is aware of this video and in close contact with the department of homeland security said statement reading in part, quote, foreign terrorist organizations routinely highlight transportation modes during the holidays. tsa is operating at a high level of security and constant state of vigilance. as always. >> this is a group that has been successful in the past. and so i think it's very important that we take these threats seriously when they are doing things like this explicitly through the english language channels, i think they are really trying to recruit kind of lone wolf individuals. >> and at last check, tsa screened more than 12 million people through its security checkpoints last holiday weekend. we can expect today to be quite busy as well. and tsa telling people if you see something as a

if the fed does believe in wealth effects we heard from bernanke two administrations ago at the fed,l wealthier, risk assets rally and portfolios go up, they spend more, all of a sudden this starts to cause concern at the fed that we start to see this kind of reach acceleration of inflation. at this stage we see core inflation dampening. the trajectory is right. the market is extrapolating this into the fed is going to normalize policy back to a lower rate. it seems like that as optimistic today to think that is going to happen so soon as early as march. david: there you go. doubleline capital deputy cio jeffrey sherman with our colleague scarlett. that takes us really back directly into the market conversation, going into this weekend with the dollar on an absolute rampage. you look at the yen for example, that is going to come up. let's get a sense of what this repricing is looking like as banks reprice what the boj can and cannot do. avril hong, what are we seeing? and happy new year. avril: are we seeing -- we are looking at dollar-yen, it has weakened by 1.1%. the biggest level

president obama appointed her vice chair of the federal reserve before nominating her to succeed ben bernanke as the nations top central banker. secretary yellen served as chair of the federal reserve from 2014-2018. when president biden nominated her to the post of treasury secretary,e said she has spent her career focused on unemployment and the dignity of work. for scholarly pursuits and experience in for presidential administrations, clinton, obama, trump and biden is why she has been called the most powerful woman in u.s. economic policymaking history. we are honor that she has joined us today at the economic club of chicago. please welcome treasury secretary, dr. janet yellen. [applause] sec. yellen: good afternoon and thank you for that lovely introduction and thank you f a warm welcome. i would likeo ackwledge austin goolsby. [applause] sec. yellen: clerk anna valencia. [applause] sec. yellen: the sheriff. [applause] sec. yellen: illinois state comptroller susanna mendoza. [appuse] sec. yeln: secretaryf state lexi gianulias and state treasurer michael barrett. sec. yellen: i am honore

president obama apinted her vice chair of the federal reserve before nominating her to succeed ben bernankes the nations top central banker. secretary yellen served as chair of theederal reserve from 2014-2018. when president biden nominated her to the post of treasury secrary, he said she has spent her career fosed on unemployment and the dignity of work. for scholarly pursuits a experience in for presidential administrations, clinton, obama, trump and biden is whyhe has been called the most powerful woman in u.s. economic policymaking history. we areonored that she has joined us todayt the economic club of chica. please welcome treasury secretary, dr. janet yellen. [applause] sec. yellen: good afternoon and thank you for that lovely introduction and thank you for a warm welcome. i would like to acknowled austin goolsby. [applause] sec. yellen: clerk anna valencia. [applause] sec. yellen: the sheriff. [applause] sec. yellen: illinois state comptroller susanna menza. [applause] sec. yellen: secretary of state lexi gianulias and state michael barrett. sec. yellen: i am honored to be here at

president obama appointed her vice chair of the federal reserve before nominating her to succeed ben bernanke as the nations top central banker. secretary yellen served as chair of the federal reserve from 2014-2018. when president biden nominated her to the post of treasury secretary, he said she has spent her career focused on unemployment and the dignity of work. for scholarly pursuits and experience in for presidential administrations, clinton, obama, trump and biden is why she has been called the most powerful woman in u.s. economic policymaking history. we are honored that she has joined us today at the economic club of chicago. please welcome treasury secretary, dr. janet yellen. [applause] sec. yellen: good afternoon and thank you for that lovely introduction and thank you for a warm welcome. i would like to acknowledge austin goolsby. [applause] sec. yellen: clerk anna valencia. [applause] sec. yellen: the sheriff. [applause] sec. yellen: illinois state comptroller susanna mendoza. [applause] sec. yellen: secretary of state lexi gianulias and state treasurer michael barrett. sec. yel

president obama appointed her vice chair of the federal reserve before nominating her to succeed ben bernanke as the nations top central nker. secretary yellen served as chair of the federal reserve from 2014-2018. when president biden nominated her to the post of treasury secretary, he said she has spent her career focused on unemployment and the dignity of work. for scholarly pursuits and experience in for presidential administrations, clinton, obama, trump and biden is why she has been called the most powerful woman in u.s. economic policymaking history. we are honored that she has joined us today at the economic club of chicago. please welcome treasury secretary, dr. janet yellen. [applause] sec. yellen: good afternoon and thank you for that lovely introduction and thank you for a warm welcome. i would like to acknowledge austin goolsby. [applause] sec. yellen: clerk anna valencia. [applause] sec. yellen: the sheriff. [applause] sec. yellen: illinois state comptroller susanna mendoza. [applause] sec. yellen: secretary of state lexi gianulias and state treasurer michael barrett. sec. yelle

president obama appointed her vice chair of the federal reserve before nominating her to succeed ben bernanke as the nations top central banker. secretary yeln served as chair of the federal reserve from 2014-2018. when president bidenominated her to the post of treasury secretary, he said she has spe her career focused on unemployment and the dignity of work. for scholarly pursuits and experience i for presidential ministrations, clinton, oba, trump and biden is why she has been callethe most powerful woman in.s. economic policymaking history. we a honored that she has joined us today at the economic club of chicago. please welcome treasury secretary, dr. janetellen. [applause] sec. yellen: good afternoon and thank youor that lovely introduction and thank you for a warm welcome. i would like to acknowledge austin goolsby. [applause] sec. yellen: clerk anna valencia. [applause] sec. yellen:ff. [applause] sec. yellen:llinois state compoller susanna mendo. [applause] sec. yellen: secretary of state lexi gianulias and state treasurer michael barrett. sec. yellen: i am honored to be here athe eco

green stgreenspan wanted more and bernanke wanted more. the thing to watch for, not so much public interest rates, but what they do with bank reserves, they pay interest. they cut th the interest cost there urge barge banking to start making loans and tell regulate ors don't go bon bonkers, make mo mistake. he would like another 4 year. larry: you really am he would. >> what is there after that. larry: glen, yoni, play golf. >> we have not solved it. but weight of evidence with your cynical views. i want to go into the federal reserve woke and dei. right, diversity, equity and inclusion. now let's go back, i want to read larry summers, several years ago, said, we have a generation of central bankers, who are defining themselves by their wokeness, they are defining themselves as by house socially concerned they are, by how concerned they are about the environment. all right, now, that was his argument they should be worried about inflation, he said this in middle of 2021, he was right. judy shelton, is the fed woke, is the fed bound by dei.

president obama appointed her vice chair of the federal reserve before nominating her to succeed ben bernankethe nations top central banker. secretary yellen served as chair of the federal reserve from 2014-2018. when president biden nominated her to the post of treasury secretary,e said she has spent her career focused on unemployment and the dignity of work. for scholarly pursuits and experience in for presidential administrations, clinton, obama, trump and biden is why she has been called the most powerful woman in u.s. economic policymaking history. we are honor that she has joined us today at the economic club of chicago. please welcome treasury secrary, dr. janet yellen. [applause] sec. yellen: good afternoon and thank you for that lovely introduction and thank you f a warm welcome. i would likeo ackwledge austin goolsby. [applause] sec. yellen: clerk anna valencia. [applause] sec. yellen: the sheriff. [applause] sec. yellen: illinois state comptroller susanna mendoza. [appuse] sec. yeln: secretaryf state lexi gianulias and state treasurer michael barrett. sec. yellen: i am honored to b

greengreenspan wanted more and bernanke wanted more.he thing to watch for, not so much public interest rates, but what they do with bank reserves, they pay interest. they cut t the interest cost there urge ba banking to start making loans and tell regulate ors don't go bonkers, make mo mistake. he would like another 4 year. larry: you really am he would. >> what is there after that. larry: gle yoni, play golf. >> we have not solved it. but weight of evidence with your cynical views. i want to go into the federal reserve woke and dei. right, diversity, equity and inclusion. now let's go back, i want to read larry summers, several years ago, said, we have a generation of central bankers, who are defining themselves by their wokeness, they are defining themselves as by house socially concerned they are, by how concerned they are about the environment. all right, now, that was his argument they should be worried about inflation, he said this in middle of 2021, he was right. judy shelton, is the fed woke, is the fed bound by dei. let me add-

if the fed does believe in the wealth effects we heard from bernanke two administrations ago at the fedpeople feel wealthy, risk assets rally, they spend more, maybe all of a sudden this starts to cause concern at the fed, we start to see this kind of celebration of inflation. at this stage we see core inflation dampening. the trajectory is right. the market is extrapolating this into the fed is going to normalize policy back to much lower rate. it seems it is a little optimistic to think that is going to happen so soon as early as march. lizzy: that was the doubleline capital cio. to crypto because it's been a wild 2023 for the crypto industry as authorities crackdown on the sectors most well-known figures. meanwhile bitcoins value rose almost two 100 62% amid a broad rally in crypto assets. 2024 has already started with big swings. investors await next week's deadline for the u.s. sec over spot bitcoin etf's. let's talk about how important this could be with emily nicole. how significant is this decision we are expecting from the sec? >> it depends who you ask. if you talk to somebody

ben bernanke wanted more and didn't get it. they wanted that power.henry kissinger the ultimate aphrodisiac. what they do with bank reserves which they pay interest, they have cut the interest costs there. urged the banks to start making loans. that is not a very public thing but to juice up bank lending. tell the regulators don't go bonkers on new capital requirements like that, those are things you could juice up the economy not get political flak for it, but make no mistake he would like another four years. larry: you really think he would? you really think he would? >> what is there after that? larry: could go play golf, whatever. >> he can do it now. larry: after the fed. all right, we haven't solved that problem but the weight of the evidence is probably with both of your somewhat cynical views. i want to read you, i want to go into the federal reserve woke and dei, right, diversity, what's the right phrase? diversity equity, and inclusion, okay. now let's go back, first of all, i want to read larry summers, this is several years ago, larry summ

>> ben bernanke tells the fed what they should do. that is not how the taylor rule works. it is an imperial regularity, the fed looks at it, they look at a bunch of different versions of it. to see relative what the feds have done in the past. but right now is not like anything in the past. i'm encouraged to see it. it makes sense given the improvements we have seen. we have the real fed funds rate, the inflation-adjusted. we are on track to have that peak. the taylor rule is like no, inflation is down lower, unemployment is a sustainable place. it is a good piece of information for the fed. it is one that they have and will continue to override if they think it is appropriate. sonali: how do you think through the upcoming economic data, particularly the fed's preferred gauge? >> the consensus forecast for both total pc inflation and core pc inflation is to have a two handle on both of them. the target has a two handle, also. we are getting close. it is not a slamdunk. i have argued, and i think it is appropriate the fed begin cutting. they said they were going to do it be

elon musk and former fed chair ben bernanke. he also encourages methods such as the september 11th attacks on the united states calling that the best example to deter western countries from supporting israel. tsa telling news nation it is aware of this video and in close contact with the department of homeland security said in a statement reading in part, quote, foreign terrorist organizations routinely highlight transportation modes during the holidays. tsa is operating at a high level of security and constant state of vigilance. as always. >> this is a group that has been successful in the past. and so i think it's very important that we take these threats seriously when they are doing things like this explicitly through the english language channels, i think they are really trying to recruit kind of lone wolf individuals. >> and at last check, tsa screened more than 12 million people through its security checkpoints last holiday weekend. we can expect today to be quite busy as well. and tsa telling people if you see something

what you see lacking which is very different from the bernanke fed, the yellen fed, certainty from thegoing. the fed today's very short-term and just keeps on repeating data dependent, data dependent. tom: this is really important. el-erian demands at queens college a university approved scientific accolade, estimated costs $25 to $35. >> let's finish on fed policy. expectations, they go in much. what your gauge of what the threshold is to be able to reduce interest rates? >> there's no reason we should go in march. i think the market is overoptimistic, both in terms of timing and in terms of the amount of cuts we are going to get. i think the market should listen to the fed when it says signals around three 25 basis point cuts and starting later than march. i think it will be the summer when they start. >> appreciate the update and congratulations on the award. thank you. it's good to hear from you. mohamed el-erian of queens bridge college, -- of queens college cambridge. tom: i go back to the phrase i was saying. the facts have changed. the single sentence today that shows you how t

in this century, especially during the bernanke years, we had the influx of a lot of in extensive productssidizing them and so forth. we had -- i know folks do like to admit this but the consolidation of supply chains. for example, having two formula manufacturers in the u.s. creates risks but it also lowers costs. for a decade the risks did not come back to us very much. we had a lot of circumstances whe of cost-cutting. i think we have run this string on that. we are reversing some of it because of the risks. i don't think the data on inflation for the 10 years before covid was less than 2%. if you want zero prices, you are probably not dealing with a market economy. it is hard to have zero inflation. host: i recall before the pandemic there were efforts and complaints about why inflation was not going up despite -- guest: there is a superstition at the federal reserve you have to have 2% inflation to have a healthy economy. i don't believe that. now i will be called a heretic by 99% of the economists you bring in here. i think we can grow successfully under the right circumstances at le

in this century, especially during the bernanke years, we had the influx of a lot of in extensive productssubsidizing them and so forth. we had -- i know folks do like to admit this but the consolidation of supply chains. for example, having two formula manufacturers in the u.s. creates risks but it also lowers costs. for a decade the risks did not come back to us very much. we had a lot of circumstances where we accomplished a lot of cost-cutting. i think we have run this string on that. we are reversing some of it because of the risks. i don't think the data on inflation for the 10 years before covid was less than 2%. if you want zero prices, you are probably not dealing with a market economy. it is hard to have zero inflation. i recall before the pandemic there were efforts and complaints about why inflation was not going up despite -- ■guest: there is a superstition at the federal reserve you have to have 2% inflation to have a healthy economy. i don't believe that. now i will be called a heretic by 99% of the economists you bring in here. i think we can grow successfully under the rig

the fed has chosen the ben bernanke legacy carried on through jerome powell in the sense of communicationnot be dependent on jay powell, but how much is it dependent on the central bank of tim cook? john: i will keep it away from a company specifically, but i would say certainly a business, the consumer, and the jobs market will play an important role this year. the keyword to watch for is resilience. when looking at economic data, we are looking for things to show resilience, and naturally it is a challenging environment when making transitions when you have the levels of trouble around the world, the geopolitical risk seems to keep ramping up by the day, but consider where business plays out in this, where the opportunities are. both the cyclical point we are on the calendar as well as the secular trends that are driving potential growth for all 11 sectors. lisa: ok, so in other words, does tech still lead? an account for 50% of the 24% gain of the s&p last year -- accounted for 15% of the 24% gain of the s&p last year. john: communication services is about 50%. you also have when you l

it is part of the -- what we call the ben bernanke legacy and we think powell is practicing that whenething like that in so far and no recession. the resilience that is seen in business and the consumer as well as in labor. all of this looks remarkably good and we think the fed is, you know, we have said for over a year, we might actually skirt a recession and now we're beginning to think perhaps we do get a soft landing. which would be remarkable. >> john, most reports i see believe earnings have to come down, estimates have to come down. how do we get 10% higher? is it through higher valuations, higher pe multiples or contrarian when it comes to the direction of earnings? >> i think it is a combination of both, steve. and i think if we just look at third quarter earnings, just think of third quarter that we just got through, when you look at earnings there, originally it was expected consensus was looking at for 3% decline going into earnings season, then it kept cutting it maybe .7% decline. and actually recall about a 4% day in earnings. you had only two sectors negative, double d