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Feb 6, 2024
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moving to fed speak, the comments from loretta mester earlier this hour. abigail doolittle has the details. abigail: she did comment on the timing of rates and seem to reiterate what jay powell has said recently in terms of the idea that 2024 will likely be the year when the fed starts cutting, but it will be later rather than sooner. she said "if the economy evolves as expected i think we will gain the confidence later in the year and then we can begin moving rates down." she cautioned about doing it too early. they really want to see inflation around 2% on a sustained path. what does that do for the bats for march and may? they are already higher. what we are looking at in white is the potential cuts in march. earlier this year and late last year it had been 100% chance we would see a cut -- an 80% chance. now it is closer to 821% chance. for may it had been 100% chance. now it is 61%. minutes ago it had been 58%. some may think her comments were not enough to take the odds of. in any case the probability of cuts in the first half of the year are lesseni
moving to fed speak, the comments from loretta mester earlier this hour. abigail doolittle has the details. abigail: she did comment on the timing of rates and seem to reiterate what jay powell has said recently in terms of the idea that 2024 will likely be the year when the fed starts cutting, but it will be later rather than sooner. she said "if the economy evolves as expected i think we will gain the confidence later in the year and then we can begin moving rates down." she...
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Feb 7, 2024
02/24
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mester overnight saying policymakers will probably become more confident in cutting interest rates later this year if the economy continues to evolve as expected. on the demand side, we had a pretty good recession -- reception for this week's trade in bond options. that set the mood. let's get to our next guest who sees asian markets as reasonably attractive, being led by china. great to have you with us. this is a bit of a refreshing view. in what ways are you constructive or feeling a bit bolder on china over just about everyone else we have spoken to? >> if you look at things from a fundamental, free cash flow generating perspective, yes, based on our fair value estimates, china is pretty much discounted. i actually do think the market does understand that, but the concerns, generally, are on the scale front and racketeering front. the way we would play china, obviously trying to limit those risks as much as possible. >> in particular, you talk about some names for china being selectively interesting. is this perhaps on the back of perhaps more confidence on the part of the consumer?
mester overnight saying policymakers will probably become more confident in cutting interest rates later this year if the economy continues to evolve as expected. on the demand side, we had a pretty good recession -- reception for this week's trade in bond options. that set the mood. let's get to our next guest who sees asian markets as reasonably attractive, being led by china. great to have you with us. this is a bit of a refreshing view. in what ways are you constructive or feeling a bit...
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Feb 6, 2024
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here is what the fed bank of cleveland president loretta mester had to say. >> it would be a mistakeo move rates down too soon or too quickly without sufficient evidence that inflation was on a sustainable path back to 2%. i think we will gain the confidence later this year, then we can begin moving rates down. annabelle: let's get more on that with our first guest, adrianne yamaki founder and financial advisor as strategic wealth capital. thank you so much for joining us this morning. you heard of the continued flashback we are getting from fed officials even as we continue to see assets like stocks, for instance, trading on the expectation of cuts. how much disappointment are we setting up for here? adrianne: it makes a lot of sense, if you think about the last couple of years, how quickly rates came up, it's very sensible that they are being very question us. interest -- they are still thinking they will keep it at 5.5% in march. it is very unlikely that we will have a cut. the fmc is thinking 2% for inflation, it is about 3.4%. i think it's right that there will be cautious. the
here is what the fed bank of cleveland president loretta mester had to say. >> it would be a mistakeo move rates down too soon or too quickly without sufficient evidence that inflation was on a sustainable path back to 2%. i think we will gain the confidence later this year, then we can begin moving rates down. annabelle: let's get more on that with our first guest, adrianne yamaki founder and financial advisor as strategic wealth capital. thank you so much for joining us this morning....
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Feb 6, 2024
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we do have breaking headlines now from cleveland fed president loretta mester, who is speaking now, and says the following. labor market strength, strong spending data allow the fed to hold rates at current levels. she's a voting member, too. keep that in mind. if the economy evolves as expected, quote rates later this year would be too soon but holding too long could be a risk to the employment mandate. we look at the ten-year not moving much, on message. there's the two year. that's the latest commentary in what is a busy week for fed speak following the fed chair sunday night. now to our top story, josh brown. >> i am? >> he has trimmed 20%, i know you're still bullish, obviously -- >> i am. >> take me through this thought process when the conversation is about this too narrow market, and names like nvidia was off to the races. tell me about this move. >> i mean, we're not even really talking about this, but after doubling last year, more than doubling, the stock wendt up 40% year to date and i looked at that upgrade yesterday and there was absolutely nothing new in there. it was alm
we do have breaking headlines now from cleveland fed president loretta mester, who is speaking now, and says the following. labor market strength, strong spending data allow the fed to hold rates at current levels. she's a voting member, too. keep that in mind. if the economy evolves as expected, quote rates later this year would be too soon but holding too long could be a risk to the employment mandate. we look at the ten-year not moving much, on message. there's the two year. that's the...
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Feb 7, 2024
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. >>> and it's not just ecb commentary loretta mester says the fed will start lowering rates as the economy moves forward as expected but declined to give a timeline mester said she's content where monetary policy stands and says it allows officials to gather more evidence as to whether the decline and inflation is sustainable. they're a voting member this year. >>> mixed bag after moderate gains yesterday. s&p basically seen around the flat line. dow slightly more positive and then the nasdaq down about one point as well. the billionaire investser believed investors have been too optimistic about the number of rate cuts coming from the fed this year, telling cnbc he expects two or three, also weighing on the current dynamics. >> if you look at market cycles and say what's your bear market, they're declining, with a decline average around 25% and last for better than aor yoo by that definition, 93% of the stocks have been through a bear market. >>> let's bring in our next guest. it's wonderful to have you i think a good place to start is the commentary we've gotten out of speakers in the la
. >>> and it's not just ecb commentary loretta mester says the fed will start lowering rates as the economy moves forward as expected but declined to give a timeline mester said she's content where monetary policy stands and says it allows officials to gather more evidence as to whether the decline and inflation is sustainable. they're a voting member this year. >>> mixed bag after moderate gains yesterday. s&p basically seen around the flat line. dow slightly more...
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Feb 7, 2024
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you heard loretta mester indicate they don't have to cut at the quarterly meetings in order to get the a 10% chance of a 50-point cut in may you're saying there might be a big cut in may i want to move on to the picks for us you're looking at cybersecurity, but you're focused on valuation in the cybersecurity space. >> to me cybersecurity is one of those places tucked underneath the tech sector where even if we do get a selloff, which is kind of our knee jerk reaction any time a conversation comes up and we don't like the way it's going. cybersecurity to me is where the spending is going to continue to happen but rather than just piling into crowdstrike once again, palo alto once again, i think there's an opportunity to suck up some of the mid-level cybersecurity names that fall underneath those that are probably going to be really good acquisition targets as a worst-case scenario but also a lot of room to run because they're using ai to help enhance their offerings against ai-powered threats and phishing and social engineering and anything else they're capable of doing. >> your picks
you heard loretta mester indicate they don't have to cut at the quarterly meetings in order to get the a 10% chance of a 50-point cut in may you're saying there might be a big cut in may i want to move on to the picks for us you're looking at cybersecurity, but you're focused on valuation in the cybersecurity space. >> to me cybersecurity is one of those places tucked underneath the tech sector where even if we do get a selloff, which is kind of our knee jerk reaction any time a...
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Feb 29, 2024
02/24
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rate cut numbers, cleveland federal reserve president loretta mester speaking on a competing networkts this year feels about a right to me. well, rick reider said he's still on for may, possibly pushed out to june. we shall see. former president donald trump expected to actually speak at any moment now on the hot button issue of immigration as he visits eagle pass, texas. he's behind closed doors right now, but our cameras are there. we have a reporter there. we will take you there live. and as you see, he is greeting some members of the border patrol and texas governor greg abbott. marathon digital sliding at this hour after gaining triple digits over the past year, up more than 350%. the ceo is here joining us to talk next about what's behind at least the blip today and if how the impending bitcoin halving, yes, that once every four years process, will impact the crypto miner. taking a look at the dow, it's just flipped into positive territory, gaining 49 points. folks, the s&p at a gain of 26 points is at a record. and the nasdaq also at a record. so we've till got 12 more minutes
rate cut numbers, cleveland federal reserve president loretta mester speaking on a competing networkts this year feels about a right to me. well, rick reider said he's still on for may, possibly pushed out to june. we shall see. former president donald trump expected to actually speak at any moment now on the hot button issue of immigration as he visits eagle pass, texas. he's behind closed doors right now, but our cameras are there. we have a reporter there. we will take you there live. and as...
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Feb 22, 2024
02/24
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mester saying? many people dwell too much on what i consider to be inside baseball stuff and miss the big picture. picture like the fact we have great leaders like jensen huang, elon musk at tesla, mark zuckerberg at meta they can triumph over this noise. you think these guys paid attention to these faux constraints? no their eyes were on the prize in the end all this fed talk is only relevant to super large hedge funds, the ones so big that individual stocks aren't enough to move the needle so they don't even invest in them these managers obsess over the big picture because they can only invest in the averages. too much macro, not enough willingness to get your hands dirty learning about gpus versus cpus and generative this and large language model that. notice how rarely they talk about individual stocks? notice how rarely they ever help you? then there's the cynicism. we've got some bias in the media. anyone who's made a lot of smoin treated with a certain level of suspicion, with the exception o
mester saying? many people dwell too much on what i consider to be inside baseball stuff and miss the big picture. picture like the fact we have great leaders like jensen huang, elon musk at tesla, mark zuckerberg at meta they can triumph over this noise. you think these guys paid attention to these faux constraints? no their eyes were on the prize in the end all this fed talk is only relevant to super large hedge funds, the ones so big that individual stocks aren't enough to move the needle so...
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the markets got a message from cleveland federal reserve president loretta midwest per. mester, who is a voting member, intimated the door to interest rate cuts is not open right now because if the possibility still exists that inflation could hang around longer than anyone if hoped. ergo, the door is shut for the moment she did say, quote, the fed can lower rates later this year if the economy performs as preponderated -- expected. we all know that's a big if. so the 2-year yield, which had been as high as 4.479% but had already started to wobble intraday, turned tail upon the release of her communities and now is at 4.40%. so these bond yields are coming down at the moment. the 2-year down 6.6 basis points. but again, looked at the s&p because you will see how it has hugged that flatline, back and forth. the s&p in its own way is sending a message, the broader markets are not going to rally on that tiny ray of hope mester allowed through the crack of that currently-closed door of when are we going to have the rate cuts. let's check the nasdaq because while the point lo
the markets got a message from cleveland federal reserve president loretta midwest per. mester, who is a voting member, intimated the door to interest rate cuts is not open right now because if the possibility still exists that inflation could hang around longer than anyone if hoped. ergo, the door is shut for the moment she did say, quote, the fed can lower rates later this year if the economy performs as preponderated -- expected. we all know that's a big if. so the 2-year yield, which had...