yeah, but you can undo the work of the monetary policy committee in a heartbeat.y, it's very easy, it's much easier to spend money in government and be inflationary than to do the opposite. and this is the point about why, you know, what we've done, it has been really difficult, like, really difficult in the last year. we've had to make some really difficult decisions which have been opposed by the labour party, which has meant that we are in this position where the economy has turned a corner and we're now able to do things like cut taxes. are you? yeah. more than you've cut already? no, ijust... cos the implication... the chancellor seems to be saying this week, i accept that of course, you've cut national insurance. yes. albeit the tax burden remains at a 70—year high. i think it's really important when we talk about the tax burden overall, because, yes, you're right, and that is because we spent £400 billion during covid and £100 billion supporting people's energy costs during putin's energy crisis but that's not uniform, right. like, we have made decisions wi

policy committee , the monetary policy committee, the monetary policy committee, the nine economists now, even now , they are arguing for even now, they are arguing for rate rises rather than rate cuts, even though inflation has come down all the way from 11% at six months ago, all the way to down 4, but isn't that part of it, liam? >> i mean, one of the reasons inflation is coming down is because our economy, our post—covid economy, is stagnating. >> i think that's >> absolutely. i think that's absolutely we seen absolutely right. we have seen falls energy we have falls in energy prices. we have seen easing of post covid supply chain issues. and so on. but a lot of it is that the bank of england, with 14 successive interest rates, rises, has just squeezed the life out of the economy. you've got credit contracting , you've got contracting, you've got companies getting rid of their loans. disinvesting you've got the housing market slowing right down. you've got consumers not wanting to borrow in order to buy big items like cars and white goods and so on. and that slows the economy dow

policy committee voted to bring interest rates down.here is a lot of uncertainty about the path of the global economy at the moment, not least because the situation in the red sea and of course it is an election year as well so a lot of people are looking at potentially the budget this time around having some kind of growth measures. will there be any kind of tax cuts? and another thing which a lot of people are watching very closely is the impact on the increase of the national living wage. a lot of company bosses have warned that that could potentially also see them forced to raise gusts. in terms of where we are, it's very much maintaining the status quo in exactly the same way that we have seen the federal reserve in the usa do and the european central bank as well. central bank has had a really difficult fine line to walk at the moment. they don't want to stall the economy to add to issues which are pushing economies in towards recession, but also, they don't want to overheat things, taking away these measures to quickly which coul

we saw the monetary policy committee , the monetary policy committee, the nine economists on the bank year high. i do think interest rates will start to fall quite soon, possibly in april or may. i think i said, uh, a couple of hours ago to both of you . interestingly, both of you. interestingly, mortgage rates are starting to come down below 5.25% because they're set on where the lenders think interest rates will be going . so i think the big going. so i think the big surprise from the bank of england today is that they talked about persistent inflationary evidence, which means that they're going to try and hold out for a long time before they lower interest rates. but i think the mighty federal reserve, the us central bank, will soon start cutting , bank, will soon start cutting, possibly even as soon as march or april at the latest . and then or april at the latest. and then a lot of the bank of england's analysis will go out the window and they'll do as we so often do in monetary policy, as they say, and we'll follow the yanks. >> well , you much. >> well, thank you very much. >>

policy committee at the monetary policy committee at the bank of england, two of the nine economistssix that's why they were held six three two them three majority. two of them actually voted to raise interest rates, even more, even though inflation is so sharply down from 11% to 4% now. at the end, it was 11% at the end of 2022. i have no idea why anyone could possibly vote to raise interest rates now. anyone that even has a rudimentary grasp of economics and policy making, one brave amendment to the monetary policy committee actually voted to cut rates, which is what i would have done had i been on the monetary policy committee. but look, already interest rates are for mortgages and other personal loans are coming down below the bank of england's base rate because they are based on where the lenders think interest rates are going to go over the terms of your loans. if you've got two five year fixed mortgage, whatever is , you should whatever it is, you should be getting than 5.25% in terms getting less than 5.25% in terms of the interest rate that you pay- of the interest rate that

— primary aim of the bank of england's monetary policy committee is monetary policy committee is monetaryg prices and that is really its focus. saying _ prices and that is really its focus. saying that, it is going to consider what _ saying that, it is going to consider what impact that has on growth and it will— what impact that has on growth and it will look— what impact that has on growth and it will look at the impact and it will consider what is happening there. — will consider what is happening there. for— will consider what is happening there, for example, if it picks up interest— there, for example, if it picks up interest rates and keeps putting them _ interest rates and keeps putting them up. — interest rates and keeps putting them up, then obviously the cost of borrowing _ them up, then obviously the cost of borrowing is higher and many businesses would put any major borrowing — businesses would put any major borrowing for a major investment, for example. so does have an impact, obviously— for example. so does have an impact, obviously it's — for example. so does have an impact

inflation coming through on wednesday and the focus on the monetary policy committee is you look at theallstate from markets today pointed to this as the focus in terms of giving confidence around cutting rates. the function on the terminal suggesting 80 basis points of cuts from the boe through this year, less than expected from the ecb and federal reserve. the blue line is cpi year on year. that is u.k. cpi and it has been grinding lower. just above 4% year on year on a three-month month basis. u.k. services is proving stickier and within that the average weekly earnings three-month year on year is the white line. toward the end of 2023 it was the services and wage component combined that remained stickier and will be of attention for the members of the committee as they try to make the assessment in terms of where to go on rate cuts from the bank of england. rhetoric has been higher for a longer. of 525 is the benchmark. do not miss an interview with gop presidential candidate nikki haley, live on bloomberg tv and radio at 12:30 p.m. u.k. time. also, our conversation with the german

policy committee.'s bring in our bloomberg correspondent who joins us from rwanda. what are you expecting from the central bank of nigeria today? >> tighter monetary policies. annual inflation is expected to begin arriving this february as currency devaluation begins to impact import prices of goods. inflation is expected to keep 35% by may this year out from 39.9%. it is not a question of if but a question of how big they are going to hike it. if they push by 400 basis points it will bring the interest rate to 22.75 up from the current 18.75%. the central bank understands that in the short to medium-term, it currently falls on them to be able to manage inflation. if we also taken on wednesday are and grows to 19% up from the policy rate of 18.75, this recalibration of rates and short term government bonds is just laying the groundwork for a tighter policy stance from the central bank. tom: we are getting corporate funding set of standard chartered with a mixed exposure to nigeria's currency in terms o

policy committee, the nine members last time out, voted 6 6-3.t would not surprise us if we have one or two members talking about rate hikes little doubt rates are on hold, but the majority of the members are beginning to think about when do we take rates down there are a couple of hawks saying rates may need to go highh hi higher. >> the market has done the cuts for them in anticipation of more than 100 basis points. if they don't do that, then the market will have cornered them. >> just the feedback, the market anticipates the policy members we will start to see rates move higher i think we are moving to the point to begin to think about the policymakers taking rates down it is broader than the fed right now. >> i also want to look at the messages from central banks. you know how in 2023 hiking was the message from all of them they were actually at the level in increasing rates. that is a different reality for 2024 what do you make of the different speeds among the central banks? >> we can talk about the terminal point where rates would go it i

policy committee.ves tried to pursue genuinely conservative policies. they can be stifled by unaccountable bureaucracy . liz unaccountable bureaucracy. liz truss put it this way earlier today , when asked by gb news today, when asked by gb news very own political editor, christopher , one of the christopher hope, one of the problems we have is, though, we've got a conservative government but what we're seeing in schools and in our in our schools and in our universities, in our corporate sector, is the spreading of wokery of left wing ideas . wokery of left wing ideas. >> people of britain want us to deal with the real issues immigration is too high. the government's too big. taxes are too high. but what we constantly hearis too high. but what we constantly hear is the left. so popcorn is about challenging that. it's about challenging that. it's about challenging that. it's about challenging ing the left wing orthodoxy and making it positive to be a conservative. >> well, i was hoping to play on a perma

policy committee.ervatives tried to pursue genuinely conservative policies. they can be stifled by unaccountable bureaucracy . liz unaccountable bureaucracy. liz truss put it this way earlier today , when asked by gb news today, when asked by gb news very own political editor, christopher , one of the christopher hope, one of the problems we have is, though, we've got a conservative government but what we're seeing in schools and in our in our schools and in our universities, in our corporate sector, is the spreading of wokery of left wing ideas . wokery of left wing ideas. >> people of britain want us to deal with the real issues immigration is too high. the government's too big. taxes are too high. but what we constantly hearis too high. but what we constantly hear is the left. so popcorn is about challenging that. it's about challenging that. it's about challenging that. it's about challenging ing the left wing orthodoxy and making it positive to be a conservative. >> well, i was hoping to play on a

>> so the bankmembers of the meets the nine members of the monetary policy committee.s newsroom or in my contacts books that contacted me about what newsroom or in my contacts books that c0ii:acted me about what newsroom or in my contacts books that coi| do ed me about what newsroom or in my contacts books that coi| do with e about what newsroom or in my contacts books that coi| do with my)out what newsroom or in my contacts books that coi| do with my mortgage, should i do with my mortgage, then rich man. andrew then i'd be a rich man. andrew pierce. the monetary policy pierce. so the monetary policy committee bank committee of the bank of england, economists, england, the nine economists, they meet on of march, they meet on the 21st of march, they meet on the 21st of march, they meet on the 21st of march, they meet eight times a year. that's their meeting, that's their next meeting, the 21st it's really hard 21st of march. it's really hard to them lowering to envisage them lowering interest rates when inflation itself isn't coming down right . itself isn't coming down

their monetary policy committee, next meets on the 21st of march.very difficult for the bank of england to lower interest rates. so i think interest rates will stay base rate, uh, stay at 5.25. the base rate, uh, in march , the first sign that in march, the first sign that they could possibly come down is april, but more likely may. of course, mortgage rates are already coming down in anticipation because they reflect future interest rates from the bank of england. this isn't bad news for the government . inflation was government. inflation was expected to go up before that by—election tomorrow . those two by—election tomorrow. those two by—election tomorrow. those two by elections in kingswood and also in wellingborough tomorrow morning at this time i'm going to be sitting here, maybe with you, ellie. maybe not. i don't know what you're. well, there you go. and tomorrow we're going to be reporting on the gdp numbers. the size of the numbers. that's the size of the overall could be as overall economy. it could be as we elections we go into those by

he was at pains not to bank of england to say bank of england monetary policy nine policy committee.t on march the 21st. they're not going interest on going to low interest rates on march why because march 21st. why because inflation isn't falling . inflation isn't falling. inflation is flat at 4. we talked about that yesterday didn't we. so i don't think we'll get rate cut in we'll get get a rate cut in march. however the march. however much the chancellor wants one i think we could rate cut in april or could get a rate cut in april or may after the federal reserve, the bank of the america central bank has cut rates. but look, there's a general trend that inflation is coming down quite sharply. it was up at 11% less than 18 months ago. it's now 4, as i said, interest rate cuts are in the pipeline. so already mortgage rates and personal loan rates are falling in anticipation of those interest rate cuts. and it will be lower interest rates and a sense that we've properly knocked inflation on the head as a technical firm, knocking inflation on the head. we finally tamed inflation. that

. >> i looked at the bank of england's monetary policy committee notes and saw two members who votedn. into account the trend. >> can braverman. into account the trend. >> can i braverman. into account the trend. >> can i sayaverman. into account the trend. >> can i sayaverrmore? there you go. >> we probably know why my amazing pundits. you. you, amazing pundits. thank you. you, my and listeners. my lovely viewers and listeners. i'll friday at eight. i'll see you friday at eight. headune i'll see you friday at eight. headline next? headline is this next? >> feeling inside from >> that warm feeling inside from boxt boilers sponsors of weather on gb news . on gb news. >> hello there . good evening. >> hello there. good evening. i'm jonathan vautrey here of your gb news weather forecast provided by the met office. if you remember what weather conditions you had on sunday, you'll probably see very similar conditions monday. conditions on monday. as we start new week, systems start off the new week, systems are very moving at the are very slow moving at the moment. pressure situated momen

. >> i looked at the bank of england's monetary policy committee notes and saw two members who votedan. into account the trend. >> can braverman. into account the trend. >> can i braverman. into account the trend. >> can i sayaverman. into account the trend. >> can i sayaverrmore? there you go. >> we probably know why my amazing pundits. you. you, amazing pundits. thank you. you, my and listeners. my lovely viewers and listeners. i'll friday at eight. i'll see you friday at eight. headune i'll see you friday at eight. headline next? headline is this next? >> feeling inside from >> that warm feeling inside from boxt boilers sponsors of weather on gb news . on gb news. >> hello there . good evening. >> hello there. good evening. i'm jonathan vautrey here of your gb news weather forecast provided by the met office. if you remember what weather conditions you had on sunday, you'll probably see very similar conditions monday. conditions on monday. as we start new week, systems start off the new week, systems are very moving at the are very slow moving at the moment. pressure situated mome

for choosing the monetary policy committee, which i absolutely agree has been, has been agree has been very weak and has, you allowed inflation to you know, allowed inflation to become high if they had become too high if they had moved earlier more moved earlier and been more decisive, in a slightly decisive, we'd be in a slightly different position. so absolutely, if you absolutely, you know, if you include power over bank include his power over the bank of that's a third big of england, that's a third big mistake made. mistake he's made. hm >> vicky, where you stand >> uh, vicky, where do you stand on of prime on this matter of prime ministerial on this matter of prime mirthis? al all this? >> i think i have to admit that i do agree with quite a lot of the analysis that we just heard. um now about what happened um just now about what happened in you got to see, in the uk. but you got to see, though, in international though, in the international context, we had context, and we have had a crisis. crisis has swept crisis. that crisis has swept across world. the western across the world.

and we are now seeing if you look at the debate inside the monetary policy committee, increasing numbersthe time may come sooner to bnng the time may come sooner to bring down interest rates, we must leave them to make that decision . but for people at home decision. but for people at home saying how long is this going to go for ? on um, what the go for? on um, what the independent forecasts in the market say is that within a matter of months, we could see interest rates starting to fall . interest rates starting to fall. and i think that will give some encouragement . encouragement. >> now, many gb news viewers and listeners are self—employed, run small businesses and all businesses, as you know well , businesses, as you know well, pay businesses, as you know well, pay corporation tax . when you pay corporation tax. when you stood to be tory leader, you wanted a 15% rate of corporation tax. i remember you telling me you wanted a 12.5% rate of corporation tax, asking me about how they did it in ireland, a country i know well. and yet you've put corporation tax up to 25. wasn't that a mis

when the monetary policy committee, the nine economists who make interest decisions when interest rateulation builds and i think the next inflation for number february will definitely be down quite heavily as expectations build , heavily as expectations build, that inflation is falling and interest rates are going to fall from the bank of england. commercial interest rates by commercial interest rates set by mortgage companies, loan companies will start coming companies they will start coming down even before the down anyway, even before the bank england lowers rates. bank of england lowers rates. that's already happening. that's why base rate is 5.25. but why the base rate is 5.25. but you can get a mortgage for a lot less than that these days because a mortgage is over. many years they are driven years and they are driven by expectations rates will expectations of where rates will be average over that long be on average over that long lending period . so tomorrow lending period. so tomorrow we've got another big inflation number coming out. we've got the gdp number coming out at 7 am

the chancellor's trying very, very hard not to be seen to be pushing the monetary policy committee of are 5.25. of course, we had 14 successive rate rises as the bank of england tried to bear down on the 40 year high inflation figure that we had. inflation was over 11, of course, about 18 months ago, back in the autumn of 2022. but he, jeremy hunt, desperate , wants the bank of desperate, wants the bank of england to lower interest rates. but he doesn't want to be seen to be pushing them because their decisions are meant not decisions are meant to not be political, happens when political, as it happens when the mpc, the bank of england next meets on the 21st of march, i they're going to i don't think they're going to lower rates that i don't think they're going to lower i rates that i don't think they're going to lower ithink rates that i don't think they're going to lower i think thats that i don't think they're going to lower i think that won'tiat i don't think they're going to lower i think that won't happen point. i think that won't happen until april at the earliest, possibly may

but what will be crucial is what the monetary policy committee actually says in its statement, giving5.25% because, of course,

uh, we're get an we're not going to get an interest rate cut on the 21st of march when the monetary policy bank of england, all the posturingng, all andrew and then the bank of england, all the posturing about andrew and then the bank of england, all the posturing about science bailey posturing about science and all ons. where's my data? it'll all completely go out the window and we have to lower rates because the americans have lowered we don't. lots lowered rates and we don't. lots and lots of politics. yes. so i do think that was a scientific analysis, the way, i do think analysis, by the way, i do think interest rates come down in interest rates will come down in april or may. look, april or or may. and look, tomorrow's really interesting. i know you guys are big into politics, as am i, but what an incredible thing. as voters go to the polls in kingswood and in wellingborough at 7 am, the ons is going to release the gdp numbers, which may show i'm predicting my telegraph column last weekend. they will show the uk went into recession at the back end of last year for the first time outsi

restrictive stance of monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. the committee decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at five and a quarter -- 5.5%. to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings. we believe our policy rates likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that if the economy evolves broadly as expectedke it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. but the economy has surprised forecasters in many ways since the pandemic ongoing progress toward 2% inflation objective is not assured. economic outlook is uncertain we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. we are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds for longer if appropriate. as labor market tightness has eased in progress on inflation has continued the risks to achieving our employment inflation goals are moving into better balance. we know reducing policy restraint toora soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progre

our restrictive stance of monetary policy putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. the committee decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 1/4 to 5 1/5%. we believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. but the economy has surprised forecasters in many ways since the pandemic. an ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured. the economic outlook is uncertain, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. we are prepared to maintain the target range for federal funds rate for longer if appropriate. as the labor market tightness as has seized, the risks to achievement our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. we know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation ba

the minutes from the january meeting show that fed officials saw the monetary policy rate at likely the peak of this hiking cycle. but these minutes are full of concern about upside risks to inflation. while we saw things moving into better balance, the committee was still more concerned with inflation. it was important to note, this meeting came before those upside surprises we saw. we saw those inflation numbers for the month of january. some were concerned that the inflation process could stall. most participants emphasized the rate cuts quickly. only a couple pointed to the downside, economic risks keeping rates restrictive for too long. they began the discussion of slowing and ending the reduction at the next meeting with no particular timetable for when that might end. if you saw the runoff continuing for some time even after cutting -- beginning to cut interest rates. it may be your main concern that elevated inflation was still harming american households. they noted improvements in inflation. some sake indicators like housing inflation what fall in the future but participants s

the minutes from the january meeting show that fed officials saw the monetary policy rate at likely theycle. but these minutes are full of concern about upside risks to inflation. while we saw things moving into better balance, the committee was still more concerned with inflation. it was important to note, this meeting came before those upside surprises we saw. we saw those inflation numbers for the month

policy but there is saying the boe should cut now if he was still on the committee.ely. the inflation problem we places more severe. even low rates of growth can be inflationary in the u.k. because low rates of demand can be inflationary because we have constrained supply. the economic capacity we have in the u.k. -- this was the bank of england's current chief economist. his successor head an analysis friday evening. even week growth can be inflationary because we cannot sustain without generating inflation anything more than about 1% per year. if you look at what's happening in the u.s., they've got much faster demand growth in much faster economic capacity growth. they are in a much better position. they should be dealing with the inflation issue first. it seems they are in a position to be able to do that. lizzy: they were warning about the recession risk. you k is in technical recession but before we got that, the governor the bank of england said he wouldn't put too much weight on whether the u.k. was in a recession. willie mind more now that we have the figure