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charles: of course, greenspan always talked about the productivity miracle.y people hoping we get it, particularly with a.i., another point you brought up but i want to switch gears a little bit. first and foremost, offer you congratulations on your new etf. laffer tengler, tglr, folks, that is the symbol. seeking long-term capital appreciation. tell us about it. >> yeah, so it's our workhorse strategy. i have the majority of my assets invested in this. we don't own tesla obviously in this portfolio but we own our investment theme which is the old economy companies pivoting to digitization, generative a.i. and cloud computing. in addition to picks an shovel he was. broadcom is holding. we've done quite well with it. it is no nvidia, but i will take it. we own microsoft, we own lam research, we own oracle a cloud computing juggernaut. these companies not only pay a dividend but grow a dividend there are no electric utilities in this portfolio. charles: nancy, i have 30 seconds. do you have a new edition of your book out now? >> i do. called the woman's guide t
charles: of course, greenspan always talked about the productivity miracle.y people hoping we get it, particularly with a.i., another point you brought up but i want to switch gears a little bit. first and foremost, offer you congratulations on your new etf. laffer tengler, tglr, folks, that is the symbol. seeking long-term capital appreciation. tell us about it. >> yeah, so it's our workhorse strategy. i have the majority of my assets invested in this. we don't own tesla obviously in...
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. >> greenspan-like, but i think greenspan, the difference, is greenspan was trying not to release anything substantive this man has a substantive viewpoint and he will stick with it which allows us to have a decent background when it comes to the futures versus the last couple days which has seen the level topeeness in tech we haven't had in a long time. >> we've seen rates, they've declined the last couple days. >> yes that's why mortgage applications are up very big. i'm glad you mentioned that. certainly revision of what we thought. look, sometimes it's okay to say look, things are really good, but did the market anticipate it what i'm concerned about is, when i see the action in tesla or apple or alphabet, versus the action in the banks because we're starting to see that the regulators are starting to let up on the regulation, it seems like there's a shift going on out of the really, really high multiple and into a target which had a low multiple going into yesterday's analyst meeting and into the wells fargo which frankly had been neglected at 11 or 12 when used to sell ought 14 - >>
. >> greenspan-like, but i think greenspan, the difference, is greenspan was trying not to release anything substantive this man has a substantive viewpoint and he will stick with it which allows us to have a decent background when it comes to the futures versus the last couple days which has seen the level topeeness in tech we haven't had in a long time. >> we've seen rates, they've declined the last couple days. >> yes that's why mortgage applications are up very big. i'm...
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Mar 12, 2024
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if we take a play from the alan greenspan playbook and say the fed will cut three times, that is what happened in 1990 and 1995 and then they left it at 5.5%. and yet the economy and stocks roared. i think inflation is stickier then we would like but it has still come down dramatically. this auto insurance business i don't get it. it has been driving cpi for months. >> sticky inflation but maybe not necessarily as big of a problem as it was a couple of years ago. i'm glad you brought up the late 1990's. we have seen a lot of comparisons typically as it relates to the conversation about bubbles and what is going on in tech. you have seen goldman and jp morgan coming out and saying that you look at earnings and they justify what we are seeing in valuation. walk me through how you are thinking about that conversation in relation to what we have seen already in the late 90's. >> i was managing money back then. it was an interesting time. it was fun. it ultimately ended. a number of things are different. one thing that drove for example cisco, what drove down the stock price was their unde
if we take a play from the alan greenspan playbook and say the fed will cut three times, that is what happened in 1990 and 1995 and then they left it at 5.5%. and yet the economy and stocks roared. i think inflation is stickier then we would like but it has still come down dramatically. this auto insurance business i don't get it. it has been driving cpi for months. >> sticky inflation but maybe not necessarily as big of a problem as it was a couple of years ago. i'm glad you brought up...
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but you know, the greenspan's of the world the various of their various people who ran programs that were fugitive estate of secretaries of state. the defense department. rumsfeld was there but baker started as chief of staff, moved over to the treasury department, went from the treasury department to run a state department over th it it was really good. but then, you know rgd that was just cataclysmic event i was in a position of run by this time i was running the speechwriting and research team was pretty big big team and i knew bob woodward from college woodward to call me when they had a hot story at the post. they would call me and say, i need read you the first two or three paragraphs of this and see if this factor it. i'm not i'm not going to change it just because you don't like the way it's written. but i do need to know if the facts weree had a sort of relationship and and nixon blessed the alking to woodward, but for a year and a half to bond behind the scenes. it helped to take some of the out of the process, but not all it was a richard nixon was the stuff of shakespeare
but you know, the greenspan's of the world the various of their various people who ran programs that were fugitive estate of secretaries of state. the defense department. rumsfeld was there but baker started as chief of staff, moved over to the treasury department, went from the treasury department to run a state department over th it it was really good. but then, you know rgd that was just cataclysmic event i was in a position of run by this time i was running the speechwriting and research...
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there has been a march toward writer and greater transparency, and chairman bernanke and chairman greenspan four press conferences a year to eight. so now every meeting really is live. i think that is a good innovation and i would not wt af other things. we have an annual supervision report, financial stability is a long list of things we have done. nothing comes to mind is desperately in need of■w doing,t this moment we are very transparent. we have no shortage of fomc participants speaking to the media, so that channel is full, i would say. think generally, it has probably helped and make thingsy. >> has there ever been a day when you wanted to put that genie back in the bottle of course not. [laughter] >> not to harped too much more on confidence and inflation, but you did say earlier in theinfl's much confidence, but you told the sen■(ate lawmakers that you were not far from receiving the confidence you needed on inflation cutting rates, so are you still of that belief or not? what a we to■e take those words, not far? chairman powell: my main message in those two days of hearings was th
there has been a march toward writer and greater transparency, and chairman bernanke and chairman greenspan four press conferences a year to eight. so now every meeting really is live. i think that is a good innovation and i would not wt af other things. we have an annual supervision report, financial stability is a long list of things we have done. nothing comes to mind is desperately in need of■w doing,t this moment we are very transparent. we have no shortage of fomc participants speaking...
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neil: i always think of that alan greenspan line, that i'm doing something wrong, paraphrasing but ad what jerome powell is saying, that rates will come down, not as soon as some would like but they are going to come down but that they seem to understand and they seem to like, markets advancing, thomas honecker knows this process, the kansas city federal reserve president. it is great having you again. that seems to be the signal from the chairman? do you agree with that? you were one of the early ones when the market is getting ahead of itself, rate cuts of this year, so -- now is coming the way you see it. >> he said something new. he has been saying this. continuing reduction that is sustainable and it is clear but doesn't say when the rates cut. part of that is because he didn't talk about it but i know it's in the back of his mind, an uptick in inflation. as much as you like to say inflation has come down, cpi is not their favorite. they prefer personal consumption expenditure. it has come down more but it is still 2.8. he is aware of that. he is fearful and rightfully so, might
neil: i always think of that alan greenspan line, that i'm doing something wrong, paraphrasing but ad what jerome powell is saying, that rates will come down, not as soon as some would like but they are going to come down but that they seem to understand and they seem to like, markets advancing, thomas honecker knows this process, the kansas city federal reserve president. it is great having you again. that seems to be the signal from the chairman? do you agree with that? you were one of the...
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Mar 4, 2024
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back then, our fed chair alan greenspan in december of 96 called irrational exuberance and yet the market still covered -- still double over the next two years. it is too early to say we are you rational. this might be the early stages if it is a bubble. annabelle: it seems like you are alluding the productivity gains will be driven by ai. you have said chipmakers are the key here. nvidia we have seen the huge run-up in the stock but are they are trying to be a competitor to nvidia. they are not there yet. that stock is significant. believe it or not, nvidia on a pe basis is trading cheaper than amd. i cannot remember any time in my life a stock went up so dramatically and the p/e ratio went down. nvidia is a very special and unique company. the one that is riding its coattails is amd. when you look at the semi conductor etf, there a many stocks. number of stocks that are moving. so my conductors have led this whole cycle. for me, these are the leaders you want to pay attention to. i've always called them the brains of the computer. this is where you get your evolution and you get your up
back then, our fed chair alan greenspan in december of 96 called irrational exuberance and yet the market still covered -- still double over the next two years. it is too early to say we are you rational. this might be the early stages if it is a bubble. annabelle: it seems like you are alluding the productivity gains will be driven by ai. you have said chipmakers are the key here. nvidia we have seen the huge run-up in the stock but are they are trying to be a competitor to nvidia. they are...
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Mar 21, 2024
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the fed put that is old greenspan. >> basically. the economy looks very strong right now, fed increased expectations for gdp growth from 1.4% to 2.1 percent, they said we think that economy will be strong. but if the economy weakening, they will come in and cut right away. there is no real down side, fed took away the down side risk in market, so stocks will continue up. larry: i'll repeat, i mentioned this yesterday, with steve moore and art laffer, things that fed should think bthe inflation story, is not that great. i am not saying 1970s, but, i am saying, it going in wrong direct, super core, core services excluding housing and rent. that is up al almost 7% in ran ran ran annual rate. brent crude, up 19% to 86 dollars since december, gasoline prices up 12% that is not 5 dollars but it is not below $3, either. and the inflation to two year inflation break events, in the tips market up almost rate 80 basis points year-to-date and price of gold since october up 20%. now, when i was a much younger man practicing this on wall street,
the fed put that is old greenspan. >> basically. the economy looks very strong right now, fed increased expectations for gdp growth from 1.4% to 2.1 percent, they said we think that economy will be strong. but if the economy weakening, they will come in and cut right away. there is no real down side, fed took away the down side risk in market, so stocks will continue up. larry: i'll repeat, i mentioned this yesterday, with steve moore and art laffer, things that fed should think bthe...
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transparency, a march towar■ó and chairman bernanke and chairman greenspan and chair yell advanced thatht. so now every meeting really is i think that is a good innovation and i would not want to turn it back. we have also done a bunch of other things. we havan supervision report, financial stability report. there is a long list of things we have done. nothincomes to mind is desperately in need of doing, at this moment we are very transparent. we hav no shortage of fomc participants speaking to the public through the media, so that channel is full, i would say. think git has probably helped and make things better, but not every day and in every way. >>when you wanted to put that genie back in the bottle somewhat? >> of course not. [laughter] >> not to harped too muche on confidence and inflation, but you did say earlier in the press conference at the reason inflation data hasn't raised as much confidence, the senate lawmakers that you were not far from receiving the confidence you needed on inflationxcutting rates, so are you still of that belief or not? what are we to take those words,
transparency, a march towar■ó and chairman bernanke and chairman greenspan and chair yell advanced thatht. so now every meeting really is i think that is a good innovation and i would not want to turn it back. we have also done a bunch of other things. we havan supervision report, financial stability report. there is a long list of things we have done. nothincomes to mind is desperately in need of doing, at this moment we are very transparent. we hav no shortage of fomc participants speaking...
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Mar 15, 2024
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then allen greenspan stopped that decline in its tracks. i still remember the green line and he listed multiple firms around wall street to help put in the bottom and it took the dow up or than 400 points. it seemed pretty unbelievable. especially when it took just three months. the bear market began in october of 2007, a totally different animal. fell 14,198, down 1198 and didn't bottom until march 6th when it ended at a staggering 6470. we didn't return the 2007 level until march of 2013. why did one take six years to unwind when the other was so quick. black monday was a mechanical selloff, the first i can remember when the average was down because of the pure market dysfunction. the way it played out was reminiscent of two other flashes , in 2010 and 2015 both times when the market simply failed to work. all three of these started with the s&p 500, when chicago overwhelmed wall street and new york. black monday happen because stock traders didn't understand the power of the market back then which could flood the market with instant unse
then allen greenspan stopped that decline in its tracks. i still remember the green line and he listed multiple firms around wall street to help put in the bottom and it took the dow up or than 400 points. it seemed pretty unbelievable. especially when it took just three months. the bear market began in october of 2007, a totally different animal. fell 14,198, down 1198 and didn't bottom until march 6th when it ended at a staggering 6470. we didn't return the 2007 level until march of 2013. why...
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inflation ran above 3% for much of the 90s, greenspan only cut three times in 1995 and a nice run up until you had the tech bubble burst so i'm sure the fed is looking at that as well. neil: not repeating the bad stuff but going to the good stuff, thank you so much. featuring robert hur getting your full from both sides. for your money. and the social media concerns, more from capitol hill. >> sources are telling me, and speaking to individual senate offices trying to make a last-ditch effort to save this apps from this house bill. anything that moves the needle, on both sides of the aisle, senator bennett, a democrat, just told us he would be, quote, happy to meet with anybody but doesn't think they would try to convince him more than he has before. republican senator corrine told us he would not be meeting with chu. they are sending the army, to call their lawmakers and beg them not to pass the house bill. yesterday the bipartisan leaders or how select committee on the ccp sent a letter back to tiktok ceo demanding they stop the, quote, campaign to manipulate and mobilize american
inflation ran above 3% for much of the 90s, greenspan only cut three times in 1995 and a nice run up until you had the tech bubble burst so i'm sure the fed is looking at that as well. neil: not repeating the bad stuff but going to the good stuff, thank you so much. featuring robert hur getting your full from both sides. for your money. and the social media concerns, more from capitol hill. >> sources are telling me, and speaking to individual senate offices trying to make a last-ditch...
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i remember alan greenspan, we talk about his bathtub indicator where used to sit in the bathtub everyning and read through all kinds of obscure things and he would make a comment saying scrap steel looks interesting and then scrap steel indicator is the indicator that the entire world is following. annmarie: it's all about inflation, we should expect a. move? mike: i don't know if you would expect a. move because it doesn't have to come now. there are some people who think they might not get there yet but you could do that in june when they get to the next dot thing if inflation can end -- continue to go that way. there is a signal get -- that gets sent through that. they may want to make that decision right now. jonathan: when a measure becomes a target, do you remember that? that's what it feels like four inflation indicators. mutual nationwide insurance points isn't just joins us now. has your base case moved in last few months? >> good morning. the cpi data that we saw for february was confirmation that inflation is not decelerating as quickly as we thought. we have pushed back th
i remember alan greenspan, we talk about his bathtub indicator where used to sit in the bathtub everyning and read through all kinds of obscure things and he would make a comment saying scrap steel looks interesting and then scrap steel indicator is the indicator that the entire world is following. annmarie: it's all about inflation, we should expect a. move? mike: i don't know if you would expect a. move because it doesn't have to come now. there are some people who think they might not get...
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Mar 25, 2024
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peter: he has worked with the obamas, the clintons, the bushes, alan greenspan, dick cheney.e is robert barnett talking about his work. barmr. have clients all over the political spectrum. >> how do you do that >> -- how do you do that? mr. barnett: i like to think that they come to me not because of my teletext, or in spite of politics, but because they think i can do the job for them and i hope they all go away saying that i have. when you go to the doctor you don't generally check to see who they voted for. and i found in 30 years of practicing law in washington, not just in this context but in my other areas of practice, that people generally want someone who will do the job for them. peter: he is not shy about his success. i guess not. that is the first time i have laid eyes on bob barnett. looking at that bookshelf where he is looking at all the books by his clients it is sorta reminding me of bobwho is the editor who just passed away, and whose -- he's well known for being robert caro's editor from the powerbroker on. but he has edited incredible chunks american litera
peter: he has worked with the obamas, the clintons, the bushes, alan greenspan, dick cheney.e is robert barnett talking about his work. barmr. have clients all over the political spectrum. >> how do you do that >> -- how do you do that? mr. barnett: i like to think that they come to me not because of my teletext, or in spite of politics, but because they think i can do the job for them and i hope they all go away saying that i have. when you go to the doctor you don't generally...
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Mar 18, 2024
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alan greenspan.nd i would love to see someone get in there and control it using quantity roll in letting marcus determined that having the fed follow markets so that market is clear rather than causing this hyperinflation which is literally what they have caused. >> neil: you are a walking encyclopedia, talking about the fed's balance sheet. those financial institutions that go back to the meltdown in 2007 and eight and nine. it still on their books. if you are in charge of the fed during something like that would you rescue those banks? >> no, i would not. i would not of rescue those banks. i would not bond the intervention. had a lot of financial crisis in our history over almost 200 some years and those financial crises cause a lot of damage. once there over which is about five, six, eight months, the game starts again and we don't have protracted losses. what we are done with the financial crisis of 2007-2008-2009 is because permanent losses where you bailed out losers and we taxed winners and we
alan greenspan.nd i would love to see someone get in there and control it using quantity roll in letting marcus determined that having the fed follow markets so that market is clear rather than causing this hyperinflation which is literally what they have caused. >> neil: you are a walking encyclopedia, talking about the fed's balance sheet. those financial institutions that go back to the meltdown in 2007 and eight and nine. it still on their books. if you are in charge of the fed during...
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Mar 30, 2024
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i think what i said and what john said and alan greenspan said before is we are not on an unsustainableiscal path. that is an uncontroversial statement, and the sooner we get back on that path the better. kai: a word about the balance sheet. you said you were going to slow the runoff and keep an eye on things. does it suggest to worry about the economy that you're going to slow the runoff the balance sheet? chair powell: not at all. to think about the balance sheet is we want to be highly transparent and predictable. it is not the main story about monetary policy. the main story is interest rates. what happens is when we get into a very difficult situation like the pandemic of the global financial crisis, we buy treasuries to lower interest rates and support the economy. when we are left with a bigger balance sheet that we start -- when the time is right let it run off and shrink back to where it needs to be. we would slow the pace, and the reason is it is moving down quickly. we have decrease the size of the securities portfolio by $1.5 trillion, so we would say that we would slow the
i think what i said and what john said and alan greenspan said before is we are not on an unsustainableiscal path. that is an uncontroversial statement, and the sooner we get back on that path the better. kai: a word about the balance sheet. you said you were going to slow the runoff and keep an eye on things. does it suggest to worry about the economy that you're going to slow the runoff the balance sheet? chair powell: not at all. to think about the balance sheet is we want to be highly...
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Mar 27, 2024
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opportunistic inflation is something that the greenspan fed did 30 plus years ago.cy, you get inflation close to where you would like it, but for the last month, just wait until the next session to get it done, and the rate cuts will start for you get to the long goal of 2%, and at some point, there will be a downturn. the tricky thing is the fed looks to avoid the downturn in the first place, which means that there are communication challenges ahead. lisa: let's start on the first issue, something that andrew holland horse talked about earlier this week that essential you cannot get down to 2% without a recession. do you agree? rich: historically, that is what you would say but progress has been good. governor waller was a huge fan. chris has made the point that you can get back to 2% without a lot of unemployment and vacancies and cuts. i do not want to say you cannot get there, but it could be a heavy lift. lisa: the other part of what you said is important. the fed does not seem to want the weakness and said they would cut rates in response to a weakening labor
opportunistic inflation is something that the greenspan fed did 30 plus years ago.cy, you get inflation close to where you would like it, but for the last month, just wait until the next session to get it done, and the rate cuts will start for you get to the long goal of 2%, and at some point, there will be a downturn. the tricky thing is the fed looks to avoid the downturn in the first place, which means that there are communication challenges ahead. lisa: let's start on the first issue,...
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Mar 20, 2024
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what chair greenspan did, what chair yelling dead. we went from four press conferences per year to now age. every meeting really is live now. that's a good innovation. wouldn't want to turn it back. we've also done a bunch of other things. we have an annual supervision report, financial stability report. there's a long list of things that we've done. nothing comes to mind is really desperately in need of doing at this moment. we are very transparent. no shortage of participants speaking to the public for the media. so that channel is full, i would say. i think it's generally broadly help and made things better, but not every day in every way. >> i will follow up. has there ever been a day when you wanted to put the genie back in the bottle someone? >> of course not. >> let's go to jennifer for the last question. >> thank you. jennifer jon berger. not too hard too much on this but you said earlier in the press conference that the reason inflation data has not raised confidence. he testified before the senate a couple weeks ago and told
what chair greenspan did, what chair yelling dead. we went from four press conferences per year to now age. every meeting really is live now. that's a good innovation. wouldn't want to turn it back. we've also done a bunch of other things. we have an annual supervision report, financial stability report. there's a long list of things that we've done. nothing comes to mind is really desperately in need of doing at this moment. we are very transparent. no shortage of participants speaking to the...
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Mar 18, 2024
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don't make the markets and the fed making the markets is the antithesis what paul volcker did, alan greenspanin did, they are great fed chairman, controlled it, following the markets, not leading them. leading the markets when you're not well-educated doesn't make much sense. this fed is not. well, should go further but goodness. charles: art, let me just -- >> sorry. charles: you talked about the role of the fed vis-a-vis the markets you know out today senators warren, senators warren and sanders openly pressuring the federal reserve to cut rates. my concern is that there is going to be an administration one day that does push this fed to become extraordinarily political. the ideology i'm concerned about are things like esg, those sort of things. they have too much on their plate to begin with. >> they do, way too much. charles: senators out there telling the fed what to do two days before a meeting? >> it's crazy. it's not crazy. of course they do that, they're political. that is what they want the fed to be, they want the fed to reignite and push their political agenda which not the right
don't make the markets and the fed making the markets is the antithesis what paul volcker did, alan greenspanin did, they are great fed chairman, controlled it, following the markets, not leading them. leading the markets when you're not well-educated doesn't make much sense. this fed is not. well, should go further but goodness. charles: art, let me just -- >> sorry. charles: you talked about the role of the fed vis-a-vis the markets you know out today senators warren, senators warren...
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. >> yeah, i mean, i think, as you said in terms of bubbles, i mean, allen greenspan famously said, talked about irrational exuberance, but that was in 1996 and the s&p doubled between there and 2000, so, up know, things can continue for a period of time. for me, as you asked, dan, we are broadening our universe. we still love meta. unlike google, they're doing everything pretty much right with a ai .i. right now, which the only thing that should scare you. and we like amazon, because they're doing a really good job of being the cloud vendor for a lot of a.i. applications. and so, we still like that, but beyond that, yeah, we're trying to find, you know, names in industrial, we talked about the xbi, the bio tech etf being one of our top five picks entering the year. we're trying to find other areas beyond just the super heavy tech trade and a.i. trade that's going on, because if you look at dell and somebody said, hey, dan, dell, when they guide their april quarter, they're going to guide eps below the street. the first thought is, the stock's going to be up 20%. so, there's a lot of thing
. >> yeah, i mean, i think, as you said in terms of bubbles, i mean, allen greenspan famously said, talked about irrational exuberance, but that was in 1996 and the s&p doubled between there and 2000, so, up know, things can continue for a period of time. for me, as you asked, dan, we are broadening our universe. we still love meta. unlike google, they're doing everything pretty much right with a ai .i. right now, which the only thing that should scare you. and we like amazon, because...
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so charles, they call alan greenspan the maestro. his own name in my book. charles: he will have a whole bunch of nicknames he can -- that is if he pulls it off. we don't want to being too premature. kelly great stuff. let's bring in joseph wang. joseph, we went from pivot powell in october, cautious powell, march 6th. now we have ex-exuberant powell. how surprised are you with the amount of confidence the fed chair exuded yesterday? >> i am surprised. as kelly mentioned it looks like immaculate soft landing. gdp revised up, inflation not really changed and unemployment revised even more benign so he is very much betting everything on a soft landing and definitely not any paul volcker. i thought the conference was as we all know over the past two months inflation has been surprising to the upside. when asked about that chair powell was basically, yeah, january, that's just seasonal stuff. charles: yeah. >> february, you know, that is actually not so bad you know. so he seems to be downplaying and looking through what looks like infla
so charles, they call alan greenspan the maestro. his own name in my book. charles: he will have a whole bunch of nicknames he can -- that is if he pulls it off. we don't want to being too premature. kelly great stuff. let's bring in joseph wang. joseph, we went from pivot powell in october, cautious powell, march 6th. now we have ex-exuberant powell. how surprised are you with the amount of confidence the fed chair exuded yesterday? >> i am surprised. as kelly mentioned it looks like...
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Mar 22, 2024
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but it is very different than what alan greenspan used to say.nspan, he would say, yeah, we have two mandates, but you have to pay attention to the inflation one, everything else will follow from there. what you just described is bankly saying, we're not going to pay attention to the inflation part of this, we're more focused on the jobs creation and looking at that part of the economy. very different. >> it is a dual mandate, so they're trying to balance both. >> but most central bankers would have said we really just focus on inflation. >> and i think the inflation is still the wild card. so, we get pce inflation on friday. the market is closed. i think chair powell next friday -- chair powell is also speaking on a market close, so get ready for an interesting monday morning in the bond market. but ultimately it is the inflation data that still matters. and part of what is giving him the confidence to say, yeah, we may cut rates somewhat this year is because he is expecting inflation to continue to slow down. and, by the way, if you look at pce
but it is very different than what alan greenspan used to say.nspan, he would say, yeah, we have two mandates, but you have to pay attention to the inflation one, everything else will follow from there. what you just described is bankly saying, we're not going to pay attention to the inflation part of this, we're more focused on the jobs creation and looking at that part of the economy. very different. >> it is a dual mandate, so they're trying to balance both. >> but most central...
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Mar 26, 2024
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yesterday, talking about alan greenspan in 1996 when he talked about a rational exuberance, sowing the seeds for the internet bubble. are we in a similar period where does not pay to be on the other side of reporting rally that potentially is headed a little too high? >> absolutely not. i am going to throw something at you that you cannot argue. i have seen the survey i think from bloomberg last week where you guys were asking, is this a bubble or not? i thought it was around 45% said it is a double and another 45% would say it is not a bubble. i would be generally concerned if you had 80%, 90% of the people saying it is not a bubble. i think that would validate your thesis around a rational exuberance. as long as it is still pretty balanced in terms of the views, to me that is not really bubble territory. in terms of the macro data, when we look at things like ceo confidence, consumer expectations around financial situation in the future, when we look at global manufacturing as leading indicators. we would look at globally, central banks moving away from hikes towards cuts where we sh
yesterday, talking about alan greenspan in 1996 when he talked about a rational exuberance, sowing the seeds for the internet bubble. are we in a similar period where does not pay to be on the other side of reporting rally that potentially is headed a little too high? >> absolutely not. i am going to throw something at you that you cannot argue. i have seen the survey i think from bloomberg last week where you guys were asking, is this a bubble or not? i thought it was around 45% said it...
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Mar 6, 2024
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if we are looking for a parallel, 1994 with alan greenspan is the best example when inflation is comingme sort of productivity improvement in the economy. we don't know in real time the full extent, but we can see it is improving. there seems to be a labor supply shock that boosted the economy last year in the back half, and is probably carrying over to some degree into the first part of this year. the fed has the luxury of moving slowly. nonetheless, the inflation numbers have improved materially so you can recalibrate policy to ensure that you have a soft landing for the economy. jonathan: 30 seconds left, so supertight if you can. there is a comment from chairman palette the end of january where he said we don't look at strong growth as a problem. that predated the jobs report. is he saying that now? carl: i think he is still saying that because there is some sort of supply shock in the economy. when we pull back the layers of the onion is seems to be a supply shock. he is a product of the 1980's. the 1980's was supply-side economics. because of these dynamics when you had strong gro
if we are looking for a parallel, 1994 with alan greenspan is the best example when inflation is comingme sort of productivity improvement in the economy. we don't know in real time the full extent, but we can see it is improving. there seems to be a labor supply shock that boosted the economy last year in the back half, and is probably carrying over to some degree into the first part of this year. the fed has the luxury of moving slowly. nonetheless, the inflation numbers have improved...
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Mar 7, 2024
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ed: it is december 5, 1996, when alan greenspan gave a speech and said how do we know if we have a rationalnce? everybody is asking that question right now. jonathan: i think we are. ed your denny -- ed yardeni. it was not the tip top of the equity market boom. lisa: wen yu not think it is rational exuberance is often when it is. i like this idea the wealth effect is what will keep this going. when you're feeling good and getting stock returns you go to gucci and her ms. -- and hermes. jonathan: some people might go to gucci. i'm not sure everyone does. jensen and nvidia has been more important to this market than the federal reserve. lisa: the ramifications for that in the economy and the federal reserve in terms of inflation, it is telling they do not think is a significant deal, that the financial conditions aspect is not necessarily problematic in achieving the 2% price target. that is compelling and something i watched. jonathan: jay powell has said strong growth is not a problem it is not pushback against what is happened in markets. markets close to all-time highs. lisa: this is the
ed: it is december 5, 1996, when alan greenspan gave a speech and said how do we know if we have a rationalnce? everybody is asking that question right now. jonathan: i think we are. ed your denny -- ed yardeni. it was not the tip top of the equity market boom. lisa: wen yu not think it is rational exuberance is often when it is. i like this idea the wealth effect is what will keep this going. when you're feeling good and getting stock returns you go to gucci and her ms. -- and hermes....
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Mar 6, 2024
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you can do debt commissions in a way, like the greenspan social security commission where it is statutory on it, can't avoid it, and you can set one of those up now so they produce an outcome, a product in 2025. you can pass stable coin legislation so you can get the dollar more deeply embedded in the global monetary system as we digitize, create more demand for our bonds, more buyers for our bonds, like stable coins do. there are a few things in the ether on the table that congress could do today to try and prepare for this moment. particularly given that both of these people who are running for president are campaigning against doing anything about this so somebody in congress should do something about this. >> you see what congress can and can't get done at this point what are the odds that any of this stuff gets picked up. >> in the mix of decisions they'll be -- in the next two weeks, they have the first six bills coming to the floor this week that's good. i think mike johnson deserves credit for getting this to the floor. i think they're going to get ukraine done it may be ugly, the
you can do debt commissions in a way, like the greenspan social security commission where it is statutory on it, can't avoid it, and you can set one of those up now so they produce an outcome, a product in 2025. you can pass stable coin legislation so you can get the dollar more deeply embedded in the global monetary system as we digitize, create more demand for our bonds, more buyers for our bonds, like stable coins do. there are a few things in the ether on the table that congress could do...
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Mar 28, 2024
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it has echoes of what greenspan had in the 1990s during his era.t the moniker maestro. and we have so much criticism of everything that is going on, and worry about how it is going to turn out and yet, i think you ought to step back and look at this this is a pretty good environment. and i think it is going to likely stay that way for a while. we're only a little over one year into the bull market and much of the market hasn't even really joined the party yet. there is all this -- money market funds that come back in, there is a lot of good things that could still happen. >> interesting because, yeah, it is, like, 2%, 2%, suddenly that became, like, if you don't get to 2%, i mean, i don't know what would happen the sun might not come up if we don't get to -- there is a feeling that if you don't get it to that point, you haven't really wrung is out of the system and it can come back and go to much higher than -- like, three doesn't sound that bad. it is not that bad but they think that would -- that would portend four or five, six, back to the horri
it has echoes of what greenspan had in the 1990s during his era.t the moniker maestro. and we have so much criticism of everything that is going on, and worry about how it is going to turn out and yet, i think you ought to step back and look at this this is a pretty good environment. and i think it is going to likely stay that way for a while. we're only a little over one year into the bull market and much of the market hasn't even really joined the party yet. there is all this -- money market...