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May 10, 2024
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joining us is barry knapp. and skyler montgomery koning of ts lombard.ou look at the conflicting signs and the data. something's starting to weaken. yields have been interesting in the shorter end of the curve. even though we saw it go lower last year, we have been wavering around the 4.8% level. where do you think we go from here? >> i'd like to find more than the backend -- >> i like the front end more than the backend. three more scenarios, one being the most likely, which is rates move higher, retest the 5% peak that they reached in late october amidst the increase in treasury issuance of notes and bonds. that is the most probable scenario for me. last month's employments report, -- last friday's implant report opened up the possibility we can get a string of weak ligament -- the labor market data that would allow the fed to start using process, which would painlessly diss advert the curve, bring the banking system back into all of that issuance, in terms of them participating. and the lease probable scenario for me is we just muddle through and the
joining us is barry knapp. and skyler montgomery koning of ts lombard.ou look at the conflicting signs and the data. something's starting to weaken. yields have been interesting in the shorter end of the curve. even though we saw it go lower last year, we have been wavering around the 4.8% level. where do you think we go from here? >> i'd like to find more than the backend -- >> i like the front end more than the backend. three more scenarios, one being the most likely, which is...
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May 28, 2024
05/24
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coming up we catch up with barry knapp of micro -- with barry knapp of ironsides on why the fed willy haines on the white house response to the latest in israel, and the bostick celtics co-owner as his side advances to the nba finals. that conversation 30 minutes away. fed officials reiterating patients ahead of key inflation data this week. barry knapp saying "i think the fed will cut before the election because of financial sector stress where the unemployment rate going above 4%." barry is with us right now. let's divide those things and start with financial sector stress. any sign of that whatsoever? barry: a deeply inverted yield curve has impaired bank profitability. you just look at the return on equity of the s&p bank index over the last two quarters as deposit betas have caught up and started to pressure margins. you had return on equity fall from 12%, which is a level where banks tend to build capital and stocks trade at a premium to about 96. it looks like it will hit into the eighth and this quarter. the small regional banks are still struggling to provide credit. you go
coming up we catch up with barry knapp of micro -- with barry knapp of ironsides on why the fed willy haines on the white house response to the latest in israel, and the bostick celtics co-owner as his side advances to the nba finals. that conversation 30 minutes away. fed officials reiterating patients ahead of key inflation data this week. barry knapp saying "i think the fed will cut before the election because of financial sector stress where the unemployment rate going above 4%."...
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May 24, 2024
05/24
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barry knapp reads the tea leaves better than anyone else.de, monetary policy on the other and, guess what? you're stung in the middle. let's, listen to his -- tuck -- stuck in the middle. let's listen to him next. ♪ you're the sunflower, you're the sunflower ♪ voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. so you can reach today's financial goals and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. it's time to feed the dogs real food, not highly processed pellets. the farmer's dog is fresh food made with whole meat and veggies. it's not dry food. it's not wet food. it's just real food. it's an idea whose time has come. craig here pays too much for verizon wireless. so he sublet half his real estate office... [ bird squawks loudly ] to a pet shop. meg's moving company uses t-mobile. so she scaled down her fleet to save money. and don's paying so much for at&t, he's been waiting to update his equipment! there's a smarter way to save. comcast business mobile. you coul
barry knapp reads the tea leaves better than anyone else.de, monetary policy on the other and, guess what? you're stung in the middle. let's, listen to his -- tuck -- stuck in the middle. let's listen to him next. ♪ you're the sunflower, you're the sunflower ♪ voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. so you can reach today's financial goals and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. it's time to...
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May 23, 2024
05/24
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knapp in your note you tell clients stable but hotter inflation you don't expect 2% move say improbable inflation -- >> not as long as running 7% budget deficits government spending 24% gdp, inflation, isn't supply shock it is regulates aggregate demand over the ability of a supply-side to just adjust caused inflation in 60s 70s not myth you can see in healthcare, where, after the passage of medicare being medicaid health insurance went 2 1/2 to 7 1/2 that story is as long as running big deficits going to run above trend inflation, right before we got you mentioned more optimistic i'm optimistic that inflation is stabilizing from volatility perspective but higher level if fed insists pushing to 2 will drive economy off a cliff they are going through five year review second half say well we can have a broader ranger around it live with 3 plus percent inflation in stable parts of the economy will operate, quite no, that environment maria: let's find out what fed minutes showed yesterday there was disagreement over slowing the balance sheet runoff within fed minutes. >> that is right to me
knapp in your note you tell clients stable but hotter inflation you don't expect 2% move say improbable inflation -- >> not as long as running 7% budget deficits government spending 24% gdp, inflation, isn't supply shock it is regulates aggregate demand over the ability of a supply-side to just adjust caused inflation in 60s 70s not myth you can see in healthcare, where, after the passage of medicare being medicaid health insurance went 2 1/2 to 7 1/2 that story is as long as running big...
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May 13, 2024
05/24
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knapp wrote about over the weekend and he said basically for a higher inflation playbook you want to own stocks. people talk about owning real assets and the stock market kind of qualifies >> it does it's a call on the nominal growth of the economy and so in some respects even though it doesn't mean it only goes up, it definitely -- you participate in that nominal growth. >> michael, thanks for now we appreciate it mike santoli my next guest says unless we see signs of growth the rally can have legs and we're nowhere near the earnings peak. quite the opposite joining us is dan suzuki from richard bernstein advisers great to see you again welcome. >> kelly, always great to see you. thank for having me. >> mike put his finger on the issue and i'll quote him and play devil's advocate, even if earnings growth continues from here the market is fully valued, so make the case that you still think it's still not and can grow from here >> i don't think there's any doubt that the market is very expensive, but as we all know timing valuation is a terrible timing indicator and it's not like valu
knapp wrote about over the weekend and he said basically for a higher inflation playbook you want to own stocks. people talk about owning real assets and the stock market kind of qualifies >> it does it's a call on the nominal growth of the economy and so in some respects even though it doesn't mean it only goes up, it definitely -- you participate in that nominal growth. >> michael, thanks for now we appreciate it mike santoli my next guest says unless we see signs of growth the...
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May 21, 2024
05/24
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we will talk with barry knapp. closed at an all-time high, but joining us now is barry knapp, director at iron sides macro economics. you have a higher risk than just in the s&p itself. >> right. >> so you are bullish. >> the setup is like the 1960s where bond yields made a series of higher highs, and inflation was rising and the fed rate repression is receding -- >> that all changed with the last cpi number, hasn't it? >> well, i think what cpa said was first of all, the volatility of inflation is falling a lot, and i am in the camp we are not going to 2%, we are going to stay 3, 3.5, and that has fallen back to the 1960s and 1990s levels, and at that level parts of the market can operate really well, if you are an energy company and industrial company, you cover your fixed costs and it has positive operating levels. for those industries they thrive in a higher inflation environment, and that was in the '60s, but in other industries, like the banking industry, for example, they struggle in that environment. yeah,
we will talk with barry knapp. closed at an all-time high, but joining us now is barry knapp, director at iron sides macro economics. you have a higher risk than just in the s&p itself. >> right. >> so you are bullish. >> the setup is like the 1960s where bond yields made a series of higher highs, and inflation was rising and the fed rate repression is receding -- >> that all changed with the last cpi number, hasn't it? >> well, i think what cpa said was first...