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May 26, 2024
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the boj wants to make sure everything is ok.me time they have to deal with the riskier side effect which is a weaker yen. so it is a really difficult path still that they have. but the bright side is the corporations have good results and also they have enough capability to make investment for the future. so that is a bright spot. and i hope that the policy and the people who accept that policy would work towards compression of the exit for the deflation spiral in japan soon. haidi: stability has been key here. there was a time when we were talking about free hours. several of those hours got left by the wayside. do you think there needs to be a renewed focus, perhaps from the government side as well as the boj, to think about longer-term drivers for growth and reform, particularly in light of demographics? takako: of course we have the long-term issue has been tackling over two or three decades as well. the key is in productivity. to make productivity higher. it is easier if we have a reasonable size of inflation. this is a hug
the boj wants to make sure everything is ok.me time they have to deal with the riskier side effect which is a weaker yen. so it is a really difficult path still that they have. but the bright side is the corporations have good results and also they have enough capability to make investment for the future. so that is a bright spot. and i hope that the policy and the people who accept that policy would work towards compression of the exit for the deflation spiral in japan soon. haidi: stability...
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May 24, 2024
05/24
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some say the next boj meeting next month is like, do you expect action from the boj? >> i think we cannot rule out a hike at that meeting, but likely we think that a hike should come much later in the year if it does. this opportunity for japan to kickstart its economy and to kickstart inflation again, we thank the last number that came this morning is going to help relieve the pressure for a hike. haslinda: the thing is, how much pressure is the boj and japan under, given the fact that metal prices have increased and that adds to the cost of japanese importers and companies? that may weigh on growth eventually. >> you are absolutely right. that is the other part of the equation. a very weak yen does weigh on the economy. that's going to hurt consumption and growth as well. i think the boj is probably watching the u.s. inflation numbers as closely as everybody else. that is what is driving the yen weekly right now. haslinda: will begin be as attractive as the depending currency, especially among g10 countries? >> we think so. given our base case of two cuts and gradua
some say the next boj meeting next month is like, do you expect action from the boj? >> i think we cannot rule out a hike at that meeting, but likely we think that a hike should come much later in the year if it does. this opportunity for japan to kickstart its economy and to kickstart inflation again, we thank the last number that came this morning is going to help relieve the pressure for a hike. haslinda: the thing is, how much pressure is the boj and japan under, given the fact that...
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May 27, 2024
05/24
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the boj governor speaking at a conference in tokyo.heme of that is old and new challenges for monetary policy in the country. let's shift to the g7 gathering in italy, because it ended with a communique that criticized china's trade practices and hence at possible -- and hints at possible retaliatory measures. stephen engle joins us. a lot of what we heard was very hawkish and a departure from the past where it has been more neutral. what do you think justify such a ramp-up? >> this is probably the most assertive language the g7 finance ministers have put in a communique with regard to china and its trade helices, and it shows the rising concern in places like germany, which has a strong manufacturing belt in autos and the like. so there is concern not just parroting what washington says. there are real concerns in other g7 nations, including in italy where they are holding this meeting, and that statement really said it. while reaffirming our interest in a balanced and reciprocal collaboration which i net we expressed concerns about c
the boj governor speaking at a conference in tokyo.heme of that is old and new challenges for monetary policy in the country. let's shift to the g7 gathering in italy, because it ended with a communique that criticized china's trade practices and hence at possible -- and hints at possible retaliatory measures. stephen engle joins us. a lot of what we heard was very hawkish and a departure from the past where it has been more neutral. what do you think justify such a ramp-up? >> this is...
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May 24, 2024
05/24
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let's start with the outlook on japan's economy and the outlook for the boj.ave been investing in japan for so many years and through different phases of the economic cycle. how much do you focus on the macro and how much do you just look at individual companies you can target and try to push them to be changes? >> everything i have seen in these companies, i have seen real change and increased focus on returns and profitability which flows through to wage rises which was maybe in fact doing some of -- affecting some of that data. annabelle: at a macro level as well because with inflation data it makes me think there is a concern highlighted by our bloomberg economics team that some companies now might be relet didn't to pass those price pressures onto consumer given that the cost of living crisis people are facing is that something the company sees? >> absolutely. there is a real reluctance to pass on the pricing to consumers. the way to start that is raising wages and then you get price hikes. they can continue a prices have not changed in many stores and ma
let's start with the outlook on japan's economy and the outlook for the boj.ave been investing in japan for so many years and through different phases of the economic cycle. how much do you focus on the macro and how much do you just look at individual companies you can target and try to push them to be changes? >> everything i have seen in these companies, i have seen real change and increased focus on returns and profitability which flows through to wage rises which was maybe in fact...
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May 30, 2024
05/24
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so where does it leave the boj? >> is very interesting. if you look at the call notes from boj officials, they've been admitting explicitly that a weaker yen is causing problems for inflation. in terms of monetary policy, it's possible that they want to hike earlier and slightly faster. even if they can hike earlier and faster, it's not going to be really fast. first, they may help billion a little bit upon the announcement. at the end of the day when the market looks at the broad rate differentials against the u.s. and other major central banks, still talking about half a percentage point policy rate in japan even if they hike. that's not going to be enough for the bank of japan to support the yen. if that continues, intervention may have to come back again. haslinda: you raised your eyebrow when i said that it's time for a correction in the market. look, 23 of the past 30 weeks have seen an increase in the s&p going straight out. it's time for a correction, isn't it? mark: you are right. i'm disappointed by this tv had today. i agree wit
so where does it leave the boj? >> is very interesting. if you look at the call notes from boj officials, they've been admitting explicitly that a weaker yen is causing problems for inflation. in terms of monetary policy, it's possible that they want to hike earlier and slightly faster. even if they can hike earlier and faster, it's not going to be really fast. first, they may help billion a little bit upon the announcement. at the end of the day when the market looks at the broad rate...
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May 14, 2024
05/24
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currency and focus on the yield gap between the boj and the fed. haidi: a couple of key stocks in the session, big stories, weakness for both. ehp down after anglo american rejected a second approach. pressure building on anglo to lay out a vision for independence. bhp improving by 15%, rejected in the offer, crucially it maintained a structure that is unworkable. we are waiting for the next moves and whether this will spur productivity. watching softbank getting more aggressive. we've seen a sharp pivot to ai investment. second quarter of profit surge occluding strategy and plans more forceful in the cfo saying the balance sheet a not the conservative. they have been shedding assets not considered core. janet yellen says china could retaliate against steps the u.s. takes. she declined to confirm that the biden administration is hiking tariffs on chinese goods, but she told us about the president's thinking on trade tensions. >> he believes it is acceptable to be completely depending on chain. and he wants to make sure, given that china is not play
currency and focus on the yield gap between the boj and the fed. haidi: a couple of key stocks in the session, big stories, weakness for both. ehp down after anglo american rejected a second approach. pressure building on anglo to lay out a vision for independence. bhp improving by 15%, rejected in the offer, crucially it maintained a structure that is unworkable. we are waiting for the next moves and whether this will spur productivity. watching softbank getting more aggressive. we've seen a...
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May 16, 2024
05/24
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we can get to the boj in a moment but firstly, the numbers themselves, it was a fair undershooting of economists had expected according to their survey. what drove that? brian: that is absolutely right. the numbers were terrible. as mentioned, this is investment that failed more than expected, personal consumption failed more than expected and exports were also a grind, so we have a bleak result. in addition, for fourth quarter 2023, it was revised lower and showed no growth at all, so for the last three quarters, we have either had minus results or no growth, so it is looking really bad on that front. a lot of that is inflation, which is weighing on consumption, but some of the results in some one-off factors, we had the new year's day earthquake that struck northern tokyo, and then we had disruptions to the auto center, and there was a scandal over safety certifications that were forged, and that halted factory output, and that is all back online, so those are one-off factors that definitely weigh on growth more than expected the first quarter. haidi: when it comes to expectations f
we can get to the boj in a moment but firstly, the numbers themselves, it was a fair undershooting of economists had expected according to their survey. what drove that? brian: that is absolutely right. the numbers were terrible. as mentioned, this is investment that failed more than expected, personal consumption failed more than expected and exports were also a grind, so we have a bleak result. in addition, for fourth quarter 2023, it was revised lower and showed no growth at all, so for the...
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May 24, 2024
05/24
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>> well, the boj did signal it is going to normalize rates and even if the boj does hike a couple ofill going to be on the accommodative side directionally, it is most likely correct. the one thing though regarding timing, the boj remains in wait-and-see mode because we have not seen, despite the strong spring wage offensive of over 5%, we have not seen that filter through to real wage increases yet. i think they would like to see that show up in the data to show some support for the household and domestic consumption. >> naomi, my point here is if the boj becomes more hawkish and if it does hike rates over the summer, the yields differential with the u.s. will be disproportionate we'll never see the yen strengthen that much, will we? >> i would never say never currenciyiyies fluctuate. right now, we are favorable for interest rates we have volatility at very, very low levels it's still not really a risk-off environment. it is a pretty risk-on environment. in that environment, the yen doesn't tend to perform that well i wouldn't like to see a sudden snapback in dollar/yen with sudden
>> well, the boj did signal it is going to normalize rates and even if the boj does hike a couple ofill going to be on the accommodative side directionally, it is most likely correct. the one thing though regarding timing, the boj remains in wait-and-see mode because we have not seen, despite the strong spring wage offensive of over 5%, we have not seen that filter through to real wage increases yet. i think they would like to see that show up in the data to show some support for the...
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May 31, 2024
05/24
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a bit of a pickup over make, so does perhaps keep the boj on track for rate hikes. we sell retail sales has also beat estimates, production numbers a little weaker than expected. jobless rate fairly steady. lots of economic data but perhaps the primary focus has been the tokyo inflation. the acceleration over the course of may. what else we are tracking so far, the japanese yen always want to note, trading around the 157 mark. stocks coming online this morning just fractionally higher. it's interesting, overnight on wall street there was the story of the swiss gdp figures, there were concerns about the health of the u.s. economy and corporate america and questions over where the fed will go with its ratesetting from here. that's the state of play for japan, let's shift to korea. stocks likewise just starting trading and just a bit of upside creeping through, keeping a close watch as well on the korean won. slightly firmer against the greenback so far. haidi: take a look at how it is setting up when it comes to the staggered open in sydney. we saw the suggestion of s
a bit of a pickup over make, so does perhaps keep the boj on track for rate hikes. we sell retail sales has also beat estimates, production numbers a little weaker than expected. jobless rate fairly steady. lots of economic data but perhaps the primary focus has been the tokyo inflation. the acceleration over the course of may. what else we are tracking so far, the japanese yen always want to note, trading around the 157 mark. stocks coming online this morning just fractionally higher. it's...
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May 29, 2024
05/24
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still gaining ground against the yen, and this is against the backdrop of the expectations of what the boj is going to do.
still gaining ground against the yen, and this is against the backdrop of the expectations of what the boj is going to do.
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May 8, 2024
05/24
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perhaps get the boj joining government officials in verbal intervention. this we know they are closely attuned to the economic impacts. automaker stoxx, for instance,, traditionally a key beneficiary of the weaker yen are now starting to see the negatives. today we have the nikkei coming on a bit under pressure. quite a range-bound day on wall street. so perhaps we are unlikely to see any major moves, especially ahead of key earnings from the likes of toyota. let's switch to korea now. at the start of the day here, that outlook for korea is under pressure. but look at that big trading debut at the bottom, that is hd hyundai marine solution. it's and ship repair company. it just started trading this morning in seoul after raising 500 -- $550 million in its ipo, the biggest in asia since january of 2022. it cements south korea's position as one of the key markets for companies fundraising through equity sales this year. a small amount of shares being traded today, around 10%. many funds will be restricted from selling because of lockout periods. that pop is
perhaps get the boj joining government officials in verbal intervention. this we know they are closely attuned to the economic impacts. automaker stoxx, for instance,, traditionally a key beneficiary of the weaker yen are now starting to see the negatives. today we have the nikkei coming on a bit under pressure. quite a range-bound day on wall street. so perhaps we are unlikely to see any major moves, especially ahead of key earnings from the likes of toyota. let's switch to korea now. at the...
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May 16, 2024
05/24
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despite that, were seen an expectation of a boj rate hike.nions still climbing, let's look at what else is happening in japan. with those bonds climbing, stocks also riding higher. we can fit the board and look at what we are seeing on the stock market, the nikkei is still in the green but you can see how the banks are still coming under pressure. it's the boj narrative, despite the forecast of record profits. automakers also down today on the stronger yen. paul: thanks very much for that. as you mentioned, tech stocks joining and almost everything rally with one exception's. we are keeping an eye on shares of baidu and jd.com ahead of the earnings releases. bloomberg intelligence believes baidu may post lower due to advertising growth amid competition from short platforms. and jd.com with greater utilization of its logistics assets. our next guest primarily researches logistics stocks. she is a senior equity analyst of morningstar investment analyst asia. want to start with your expectations around jd.com. is there risk here perhaps to cost?
despite that, were seen an expectation of a boj rate hike.nions still climbing, let's look at what else is happening in japan. with those bonds climbing, stocks also riding higher. we can fit the board and look at what we are seeing on the stock market, the nikkei is still in the green but you can see how the banks are still coming under pressure. it's the boj narrative, despite the forecast of record profits. automakers also down today on the stronger yen. paul: thanks very much for that. as...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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the question is when we are going to see future boj rate hikes.also saying they will be responding to the economic additions as well. boj members say financial conditions should state easy but that are still uncertainties regarding the fed direction and that has been playing into the japanese yen dynamic good you are seeing weakness this morning against the dollar but late in the new york session we had as much as a 3% jump in the japanese currency. the question is whether we saw japanese government officials intervening into the market. a quick check on u.s. futures pre-you are seeing them climbing across the board. an interesting session. we saw a slide into the close the likes of amd and supermicro slumping pretty it was that story of chip stock split we see qualcomm after hours rising. more ahead. this is ♪ and they're all coming? those who are still with us, yes. grandpa! what's this? your wings. light 'em up! gentlemen, it's a beautiful... ...day to fly. when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to ha
the question is when we are going to see future boj rate hikes.also saying they will be responding to the economic additions as well. boj members say financial conditions should state easy but that are still uncertainties regarding the fed direction and that has been playing into the japanese yen dynamic good you are seeing weakness this morning against the dollar but late in the new york session we had as much as a 3% jump in the japanese currency. the question is whether we saw japanese...
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May 27, 2024
05/24
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the expectation of the boj's policy normalization. but i guess to your point about how we are going to be data focused this week, let's flip the board and take a look at what we are seeing out of china. industrial profits rose in that is against the backdrop of exports having returned to growth, domestic demand improving, so some signs of that recovery. haslinda: that's right. lots of data to digest. avril hong, thank you. some of the top economic news we are watching. core pce data. this will be a key indicator for the u.s. of course on the back of uncertainty remaining over when the fed will start cutting rates. financial markets remain convinced that easing is coming. a slew of data in japan. inflation will climb back up. production likely rose, unemployment probably fell. the overall picture set to boost the boj's confidence he can go ahead with more rate hikes. the pmi's survey expected may 31. recent data has painted a mixed picture of china's economy, suggesting the recovery remains fragile. it remains pretty uneven. let's get
the expectation of the boj's policy normalization. but i guess to your point about how we are going to be data focused this week, let's flip the board and take a look at what we are seeing out of china. industrial profits rose in that is against the backdrop of exports having returned to growth, domestic demand improving, so some signs of that recovery. haslinda: that's right. lots of data to digest. avril hong, thank you. some of the top economic news we are watching. core pce data. this will...
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May 29, 2024
05/24
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paul: we are seeing signs of the boj may be ready to tighten again.that have more impact on intervention, and do you think the narrative is believable? ray: it is, we have seen a significant shift in the narrative coming out of boj governor ueda. the last meeting, he was pretty adamant that jan weakness is not having a detrimental effect as far as the inflation impact. that got a strong negative yen reaction from the fast forward and the narrative seems to have changed. we have heard from the deputy governor of the beginning of this week or late last week echoing similar comments. the boj is giving up possibly for a reduction in the pace of jgb buying as early as the june meeting which would set the market up for an actual rate rise of the short end. maybe as soon as the july meeting. if that comes to pass, depending on what is happening on the u.s. yield and end of the spectrum, our forecasts have us closer to 150 and heading lower, but very much predicated on the fed still going to ease this year. the bank of japan may surprise with the rate at whic
paul: we are seeing signs of the boj may be ready to tighten again.that have more impact on intervention, and do you think the narrative is believable? ray: it is, we have seen a significant shift in the narrative coming out of boj governor ueda. the last meeting, he was pretty adamant that jan weakness is not having a detrimental effect as far as the inflation impact. that got a strong negative yen reaction from the fast forward and the narrative seems to have changed. we have heard from the...
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May 28, 2024
05/24
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the sense you get about how inflation is broadening out, making the case for the boj to hike rates yet again. we are seeing that reflected across assets. it is the value related names, your materials, banks that are firm. we are seeing the ones that benefit from cheap yen, declining today. the likes of toyota. the yield on the 10 year sitting above 1%. dollar-yen pulling full their way from 1.57. tom: avril with the asian market check. thank you very much. tensions ratcheting high once again in the middle east after an egyptian soldier was killed in a clash with israeli forces at the rafah border crossing. it follows israel's deadly airstrike on a refugee camp which the prime minister described as a tragic mistake. for more on this story, let's go to our bloomberg horizons anchor in dubai. what is the international reaction, what has it been to the latest events in rafah? >> joumanna: the israeli as strikes in rafah sunday killed 45 palestinians. many graphic images of people being engulfed in flames. israel were quick to say the attack was based on precise intelligence and they had ki
the sense you get about how inflation is broadening out, making the case for the boj to hike rates yet again. we are seeing that reflected across assets. it is the value related names, your materials, banks that are firm. we are seeing the ones that benefit from cheap yen, declining today. the likes of toyota. the yield on the 10 year sitting above 1%. dollar-yen pulling full their way from 1.57. tom: avril with the asian market check. thank you very much. tensions ratcheting high once again in...
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May 15, 2024
05/24
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japan's megabanks forecasting record net income as the boj moves away from negative rates, seeing a combined windfall of $21 billion. and china tech earnings on the way. we'll bring you jd.com and baidu results. haidi: take a look at how we are setting up in asia, set to rally after u.s. stocks and bonds climbed on indications of slowly but surely slowing inflation data from that cpi print. the takeaway was that potentially provides affair with a little more room to start easing sooner, even as we've heard from jay powell that in the face of lacking evidence of disinflation or pressures that we may be staying higher for longer. it's a pretty robust set up, sidney futures up about .6%. a pop when it comes to trading in new zealand, nikkei futures looking perky there as well. fresh highs for each benchmark there as well. watching hong kong as a resume trading on thursday after the holidays and south korea coming online after that buddha's birthday holiday there as well. given the huge rally were seen across various commodities, as well as those that might be more sensitive to that news out of
japan's megabanks forecasting record net income as the boj moves away from negative rates, seeing a combined windfall of $21 billion. and china tech earnings on the way. we'll bring you jd.com and baidu results. haidi: take a look at how we are setting up in asia, set to rally after u.s. stocks and bonds climbed on indications of slowly but surely slowing inflation data from that cpi print. the takeaway was that potentially provides affair with a little more room to start easing sooner, even as...
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May 3, 2024
05/24
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it has obviously been an interesting period since the boj finally gave up on that. the market peaked two days later and now we are in this period where basically the bank of japan has very little control over where the yen will go given that the rate differential versus the u.s. is going to persist. so, the intervention, while it has been pretty effective in drawing a line in the sand at 160, most likely we will see that get tested again. and the period for the yen to stop weakening will be when u.s. trades start to get cut in the differential changes. the market peaked a couple of days after the end of --. we are in a period right now of full-year results, next year's guidance and heading into the ag m season. it has become a stock pickers market in japan. and we are looking forward to seeing additional push on the corporate governance and restructuring and et cetera through the agm season. so we are ready to add on weakness in japan at the moment. haidi: haidi: i wanted to get your thoughts on the hong kong rally. we are starting to see signals for the first time
it has obviously been an interesting period since the boj finally gave up on that. the market peaked two days later and now we are in this period where basically the bank of japan has very little control over where the yen will go given that the rate differential versus the u.s. is going to persist. so, the intervention, while it has been pretty effective in drawing a line in the sand at 160, most likely we will see that get tested again. and the period for the yen to stop weakening will be...
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May 30, 2024
05/24
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so i suppose the boj could adjust bond purchases down. they certainly face a lot of pressure to normally policy. but fx traders will definitely be nervous about the potential for intervention, we could see sudden moves. even if people think it is coming. considering the last time that apparently happened was in the u.s. session when there was an impulse for the yen to we can anyway, -- i mentioned those risky data releases tonight and tomorrow night -- if those coming softer than expected, you see the u.s. dollar weakening, you would think there would be the temptation for the japanese ministry of finance to say, ok, perfect chance to knock it down. we saw some shorts reinitiated over the last couple weeks so they could try to squeeze them. either way, we are looking for the potential for some turmoil in the japanese yen. paul: alright, garfield reynolds who leads our markets live asia coverage, thank you. bhp is continuing to slip in the early going in australia, now off by about two thirds of 1%. this is going on after they decided agai
so i suppose the boj could adjust bond purchases down. they certainly face a lot of pressure to normally policy. but fx traders will definitely be nervous about the potential for intervention, we could see sudden moves. even if people think it is coming. considering the last time that apparently happened was in the u.s. session when there was an impulse for the yen to we can anyway, -- i mentioned those risky data releases tonight and tomorrow night -- if those coming softer than expected, you...
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May 3, 2024
05/24
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it's quite a recovery after last week receiving no help at all from the boj.ose record short positions, those yen bears being brought back. i want to recap what we have seen this week as there is that help commenter from what is believed to be intervention on the currency but also the dollar slumping. the yen is also recouping ground. best gain since december 2022 and a week since then versus the pound, the euro, offshore yen as well. that's what we see in fx. let's take a look at what we are seeing in the e.m. space as well, because of course, the fed coming in less hawkish provided some relief to a lot of these em currencies. we are keeping an eye on on the inflation print that is due this hour. the rupee hovering near 83.4, but rendon be had been -- remember the -- rendon be had been --renimbi had been pushing towards highs. taking a look at the korean yuan as well amid those bond as well as stock market enclosed. it is a key beneficiary this week. let's take a look at what this is playing out for the tech space because the korean apple suppliers are also a
it's quite a recovery after last week receiving no help at all from the boj.ose record short positions, those yen bears being brought back. i want to recap what we have seen this week as there is that help commenter from what is believed to be intervention on the currency but also the dollar slumping. the yen is also recouping ground. best gain since december 2022 and a week since then versus the pound, the euro, offshore yen as well. that's what we see in fx. let's take a look at what we are...
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May 13, 2024
05/24
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., some indication of whether the boj has a pass to go after european stocks point lower.et's put the board to the cpi print out of the u.s. on wednesday. the two-year is at 485, 125 on the pound, haiti five dollars a barrel on brent. some tied to soft data, gold at 2354, let's cross over to asia where avril is standing by. what is standing out to you russian mark avril: seeing a mixed bag as far as equities are concerned. ahead of that we got china data on credit, things pointing to the fact that chinese authorities are struggling. the focus shifted to china issuing sovereign bonds. the idea is to raise funds to support the chinese economy and this could be a way for china to raise funds without leading to a higher deficit, helping sentiment. csi is higher, hang seng moving up. asian equities are under pressure. take you to what we are seeing in china and japan. the yen is in focus. the data out of china weekends. expectation being policy easing and u.s. china tensions, i want to highlight bonds under pressure. the boj reduced bond purchases and it is testing the water be
., some indication of whether the boj has a pass to go after european stocks point lower.et's put the board to the cpi print out of the u.s. on wednesday. the two-year is at 485, 125 on the pound, haiti five dollars a barrel on brent. some tied to soft data, gold at 2354, let's cross over to asia where avril is standing by. what is standing out to you russian mark avril: seeing a mixed bag as far as equities are concerned. ahead of that we got china data on credit, things pointing to the fact...
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May 28, 2024
05/24
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yesterday the governor of the boj said the way they are open to policy rate hikes in the months ahead a question of when it could next be but we do still see trade wanting that to happen because the 10 for instance above the 1% mark so sitting at the levels we have not seen going back to 2012. japanese yen still reflecting fundamentals between boj and the fed and trading around 157 mark this morning. we are tracking stocks, trading study in the session and u.s. markets were shut monday but we saw european equity -- european stocks moving higher with expectations that ecb could look to cut rates but let's look this morning at korea with similar themes with u.s. futures again fairly steady so far, one group of stocks we are watching is entertainment in korea finishing -- at a discount to the entertainment last close haidi. haidi: looking at across australian assets in u.s. treasuries this is the picture for [indiscernible] we are less than two minutes and and it is a staggered open and we expect muted gains on the aussie dollar seeing muted gains and china proxies that does well when we
yesterday the governor of the boj said the way they are open to policy rate hikes in the months ahead a question of when it could next be but we do still see trade wanting that to happen because the 10 for instance above the 1% mark so sitting at the levels we have not seen going back to 2012. japanese yen still reflecting fundamentals between boj and the fed and trading around 157 mark this morning. we are tracking stocks, trading study in the session and u.s. markets were shut monday but we...
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May 2, 2024
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japanese currency very much reflecting the dynamics between the boj and the fed. and again, the expectation the boj will be staying easy, very accommodative over the coming months, being reflected in the latest meeting minutes. saying members most expect financial conditions to stay easy and that they will be making decisions based around more domestic factors, things like the economy and whether we see price pressures and anything being sustained. japanese equities under pressure. the nikkei 225 down .7%. the u.s. session a little mixed overnight. we saw initial relief rally but into the closed it was a story of chip and ai hardware names weighing on the market. the likes of amd and supermicro. let's switch because it is not just japanese government officials concerned about the currency direction. you also have korean ones as well saying they will be taking bold steps if market volatility does not increase. they will also be closely coordinating the government in the b.o.k. amid those various uncertainties. it really does come down to the direction of fed rate c
japanese currency very much reflecting the dynamics between the boj and the fed. and again, the expectation the boj will be staying easy, very accommodative over the coming months, being reflected in the latest meeting minutes. saying members most expect financial conditions to stay easy and that they will be making decisions based around more domestic factors, things like the economy and whether we see price pressures and anything being sustained. japanese equities under pressure. the nikkei...
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May 14, 2024
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. -- from the boj. tom: high yield doesn't mean support for the yen. the currency under pressure. avril, thank you. to one of our key interviews, exclusive with french president macron, he is open to seeing a major french bank taken over by a european rival. we spoke with macron as he hosted an investment summit in versailles. >> as europeans, that means you need consolidation is europeans. >> it could be cross-border mergers? >> sure. this is a new world and we do need this new business model for their europeans. more innovation, more investment, single market, and irrelevant -- a relevant type policy. tom: that was the french president macron. let's get more details and bring in our paris bureau chief. how much support does micron have -- macron have for expanding the eu budget? are the germans on board? >> good question. probably not coincidentally, emmanuel macron's one trillion sounds like a report by the former president of the bank of france who also said the eu needs about one trillion euros mor
. -- from the boj. tom: high yield doesn't mean support for the yen. the currency under pressure. avril, thank you. to one of our key interviews, exclusive with french president macron, he is open to seeing a major french bank taken over by a european rival. we spoke with macron as he hosted an investment summit in versailles. >> as europeans, that means you need consolidation is europeans. >> it could be cross-border mergers? >> sure. this is a new world and we do need this...
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May 9, 2024
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hawkish, talking about rate all on the data boj summary of opinions were dropped. there were discussion about rate hikes, to currency traders do not believe the hawker sentiment coming through from these japanese officials, because do not forget, the outcome from the april meeting was a dovish one. the june meeting does look like a live one. let's flip the board, because where more of a reaction to those comments is coming from his in the jgb soace -- space, japanese bonds coming under pressure but this is mirroring what we are seeing globally. 10 year moves of about 70 basis points as well. tom: avril hong with the deep dive. we will stay on the bond space and the asian reaction we are seeing a loss the markets today after pressure that came through on treasuries yesterday. bit of a selloff, attention today turning to the 30 year auction in the u.s. susan collins warning rates will likely stay higher for longer. >> there is a significant amount of uncertain around that outlook and data tells me it will take longer than previously thought. tom: let's bring in mark
hawkish, talking about rate all on the data boj summary of opinions were dropped. there were discussion about rate hikes, to currency traders do not believe the hawker sentiment coming through from these japanese officials, because do not forget, the outcome from the april meeting was a dovish one. the june meeting does look like a live one. let's flip the board, because where more of a reaction to those comments is coming from his in the jgb soace -- space, japanese bonds coming under pressure...
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May 13, 2024
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one is that the boj probably needs to hike rates as well. we are expecting the boj to do another rate hike in the third quarter of the year. another thing important historically is that the fed needs to cut. the third thing is we need to get some kind of verbal endorsement from u.s. treasury or u.s. officials. we have had a soft version of that, but maybe the market is expecting a more ringing endorsement in that form. paul: are there any em currencies looking undervalued to you at the moment? joey: frankly speaking, the moves on the value currency is the yen. the second two that is there are some in asia looking on the low side of those evaluations. the korean won, taiwan dollar. a lot of this -- of these currencies have been undervalued for a long time, at the end of the day, valuation cannot direct us to the direction of the currency. we still need some policies to fall into place, namely the fed's monetary policy. paul: you mentioned geopolitics as a key risk. are there any other risk factors you are watching at the moment? joey: we alre
one is that the boj probably needs to hike rates as well. we are expecting the boj to do another rate hike in the third quarter of the year. another thing important historically is that the fed needs to cut. the third thing is we need to get some kind of verbal endorsement from u.s. treasury or u.s. officials. we have had a soft version of that, but maybe the market is expecting a more ringing endorsement in that form. paul: are there any em currencies looking undervalued to you at the moment?...
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May 28, 2024
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the boj staying relatively dovish even though we have seen the path to further hikes.ave the view that is developing that u.k. interest rates are going to stay higher than most others in the g10 countries. the boe set to lag behind its peers when it comes to easing. what we are hearing is even another hike from the boj is not going to do much to dissuade traders from picking nearly any other major currency over the yen. we are tracking the euro versus the yen around 170. the dollar versus the yen and that has been a keenly watched pair given you at the 157 level. 160 perhaps seen as a line in the sand for the boj where we see any possible intervention. haidi: we can get more thoughts in terms of the policy gap and the inflation outlook in general. going to head back to the ubs investment conference underway in hong kong. our next guest is one of their speakers at the event and a co-recipient of the 2018 nobel prize. he is a professor at boston college. he previously served as chief economist at the world bank. as we talk about rate divergence and how a lot of these glo
the boj staying relatively dovish even though we have seen the path to further hikes.ave the view that is developing that u.k. interest rates are going to stay higher than most others in the g10 countries. the boe set to lag behind its peers when it comes to easing. what we are hearing is even another hike from the boj is not going to do much to dissuade traders from picking nearly any other major currency over the yen. we are tracking the euro versus the yen around 170. the dollar versus the...
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May 8, 2024
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i think the boj, no rate hikes, i think they are likely to hike another couple of times.s why the yen story will get harder. even though i bears the yen, it will be volatile. i don't think dollar-yen is as easy. haslinda: mark cudmore, thank you for your thoughts today. india has pulled off an impressive recovery post-pandemic and we discuss the main risks facing the economy. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ sandals jamaica sale is now on! with rates from $199 per person per night. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals haslinda: welcome back to your bloomberg markets: asia. watching india and we count down to the india open in about six minutes. futures pointing to a lower opening. pretty much in line with the rest of the region. his a look at the india vix index showing a surgeon volatility over the past nine days after relative calm. let's bring our equities reporter, cj in mumbai. what is stoking these market fears? cj: at this point, it seems like there is an expectation happening with respect to the ongoing general elections. the market ran in
i think the boj, no rate hikes, i think they are likely to hike another couple of times.s why the yen story will get harder. even though i bears the yen, it will be volatile. i don't think dollar-yen is as easy. haslinda: mark cudmore, thank you for your thoughts today. india has pulled off an impressive recovery post-pandemic and we discuss the main risks facing the economy. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ sandals jamaica sale is now on! with rates from...
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May 31, 2024
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perhaps making the case for the boj to mold those rate hikes. still see and that pressure coming through on japanese bonds. as i say, we were looking really closely at the china pmi's as well, the unexpected contraction in factory activity. why is this important? because there was expansion for the past two months, and we were actually seeing that sector really supporting the recovery in china, so this is raising a bit of eyebrows, and it is also the biggest miss versus estimates in more than a year. these are the sub-indices that are not helping things along. take a look at the output, the new order slowing coming there for those manufacturers in china . another concern as well from those trade tensions, which may make it a bit trickier for them as well. haslinda: we thank you so much for that update. the shangri-la dialogue will be the first in-person meeting between u.s. and chinese defense chiefs since china named a new defense minister. let's discuss expectations for this meeting and simmering superpower tensions, we turn to the director of
perhaps making the case for the boj to mold those rate hikes. still see and that pressure coming through on japanese bonds. as i say, we were looking really closely at the china pmi's as well, the unexpected contraction in factory activity. why is this important? because there was expansion for the past two months, and we were actually seeing that sector really supporting the recovery in china, so this is raising a bit of eyebrows, and it is also the biggest miss versus estimates in more than a...
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May 14, 2024
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over time the yen will appreciate. >> speaking of policy shifts, how is japan performing since the bojcy? christopher: japan fixed income is a much more interesting market when you actually have interest rates were fixed income so it has been an interesting time. the level of interest in japan is higher including fixed income. our expectation is inflation will stay elevated. we'll see higher -- higher numbers. so we certainly think jgb yields can exceed 1%, the first time in a long time so japan mixed income is more dynamic. host: we've seen rates traders in high demand. hedge funds are hiring traders for portfolio managers. what are they doing to attract or train? christopher: it is a priority to have world-class traders in our businesses. these markets will be interesting in hedge funds will look for talent. double edge sword, traders are good. there are few places that have a yen franchise as powerful as ours. if you are one of those, nomura is the best place to be. we will be fine. i do not want to be complacent because talented people are desirable and i will create a working envi
over time the yen will appreciate. >> speaking of policy shifts, how is japan performing since the bojcy? christopher: japan fixed income is a much more interesting market when you actually have interest rates were fixed income so it has been an interesting time. the level of interest in japan is higher including fixed income. our expectation is inflation will stay elevated. we'll see higher -- higher numbers. so we certainly think jgb yields can exceed 1%, the first time in a long time...
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May 2, 2024
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under surveillance this morning, tension at the boj. >> there is tension between the boj governor comingpolicy is not driven by the exchange rate. either the policy statement isn't as strong as it sounds, or the intern -- intervention isn't ultimately going to work. i think it is more likely the latter. jonathan: adam sitting down with dani burger for a fantastic exchange earlier this morning. a second round of currency intervention this week, the yen sees a sharp gain. moments after the news conference with chairman powell, under standard chartered they wrote that they may have trouble retaining the gains. boj rate policy adding support to the intervention. can we start with the intervention, steve? what's the strategy from japanese authorities and the ultimate objective? what do you make of the approach so far? steve: they may have thought that they were going to catch the market on the hop with the dollar weaker already, slightly more dovish than expected with the fomc meeting. the meeting, the yen was moving at 4 p.m. new york time, it's a thin margin. i think they were experimenting
under surveillance this morning, tension at the boj. >> there is tension between the boj governor comingpolicy is not driven by the exchange rate. either the policy statement isn't as strong as it sounds, or the intern -- intervention isn't ultimately going to work. i think it is more likely the latter. jonathan: adam sitting down with dani burger for a fantastic exchange earlier this morning. a second round of currency intervention this week, the yen sees a sharp gain. moments after the...
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May 8, 2024
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could come in the form of the signals of a reduction of bond purchases come june, that is when the boj next meets. that is not helping, the, yen as you can see today, the focus shifting to yield to differentials but also given the weakness today really highlighting the urgency for japan officials to act. they don't want to waste of the effort from last week when we are likely to have seen those two rounds of intervention. tom: avril hong standing by in singapore. fascinating how that story around the software yen is not now benefiting the automakers on a great day with toyota the largest automaker. now to the geopolitics and the focus on what's happening on the middle east. the u.s. pausing affect shipment of bombs to israel last week over concerns about plans for a full-scale assault on rafah. meanwhile, israeli forces are edging closer into that city, with truces talks stalling. washington says israel and hamas should be able to resolve differences over a proposed ceasefire. i'm joined by dana kraich in dubai. what is the impact of this decision to pause shipments? this is something
could come in the form of the signals of a reduction of bond purchases come june, that is when the boj next meets. that is not helping, the, yen as you can see today, the focus shifting to yield to differentials but also given the weakness today really highlighting the urgency for japan officials to act. they don't want to waste of the effort from last week when we are likely to have seen those two rounds of intervention. tom: avril hong standing by in singapore. fascinating how that story...
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May 14, 2024
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japanese bond yields and surging to decade plus highs on bets the boj will further reduce debt buying to ease pressure on the ailing yen. plus, janet yellen admitting china may retaliate against terrifying from the biden administration, we hear exclusively from the u.s. treasury secretary. let's get straight to markets and look at how they are faring. avril hong is in singapore keeping an eye on things. >> we're seeing asia stocks moving sideways. you get the feeling this is the way it's going to be until we get the u.s. cpi print. that is projected to show moderation but not enough to prompt fed rate cuts. we did see chinese equities starting the day on the front foot, but they have pulled off session highs, even ahead of those big tech earnings out of china. keeping an eye on what we're seeing on asia fx, the threat of tariffs on china, along with potentially higher inflation. not a good makes for asian currencies. in japanese bonds, the seller from yesterday continues, we had the boj reducing purchases in the five to 10-eurozone, now strategists say it would not be surprising if it
japanese bond yields and surging to decade plus highs on bets the boj will further reduce debt buying to ease pressure on the ailing yen. plus, janet yellen admitting china may retaliate against terrifying from the biden administration, we hear exclusively from the u.s. treasury secretary. let's get straight to markets and look at how they are faring. avril hong is in singapore keeping an eye on things. >> we're seeing asia stocks moving sideways. you get the feeling this is the way it's...
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May 23, 2024
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will this shake the boj resolve? that's a key question not only for fx markets as well.: let's bring out michael wilson. pretty much in line with expectations when it comes to cpi numbers. there's been concern across the economy more generally. two fx traders feel this way? >> i think they do, a little caught between whether they pull the trigger in july or october for a 10 basis point hike. i suppose the director's put july also table and puts october and focus. some of the numbers we are seeing,. there's a lot of -- we are seeing, there's a lot of narrative. a defensive measure as well. you could argue that or they to pull the trigger, it probably speaks more to covert support than necessitating any deliberate slowing of the economy. the economy doesn't have any real momentum to speak of. by kicking the can down the road to october. the latest backlash, the scenario hasn't changed. i do wonder what it would take for him to dial back, he seems to be single minded with purpose, he wants to get the market use to rate hikes, a tightening cycle as it were. i think until the
will this shake the boj resolve? that's a key question not only for fx markets as well.: let's bring out michael wilson. pretty much in line with expectations when it comes to cpi numbers. there's been concern across the economy more generally. two fx traders feel this way? >> i think they do, a little caught between whether they pull the trigger in july or october for a 10 basis point hike. i suppose the director's put july also table and puts october and focus. some of the numbers we...
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May 16, 2024
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if we don't get those boj rate hikes. let's take a look at why. we have the japanese gdp, deeper contraction than expected because consumers, companies cut their own spendings. economists flagged this may be temporary as well because we got the major automaker that cut back on output no thanks to safety scandals. that is part of what markets are digesting. we are seeing the japanese currency still climbing today, below the 154 level. it is really about the lower u.s. yields. tom: checking out the asian market reaction to inflation data and summaries -- stories out of china and japan. around the inflation story and how it is impacting cross asset, and measure of underlying u.s. inflation cooling in april for the first time in six months with markets pricing in two rate reductions by the fed this year. the u.s. bureau of labor statistics conducting a probe after it inadvertently posted the data 30 minutes early. for more, let's bring in our strategist mark. off to the races. this is risk on. how much further does the rally
if we don't get those boj rate hikes. let's take a look at why. we have the japanese gdp, deeper contraction than expected because consumers, companies cut their own spendings. economists flagged this may be temporary as well because we got the major automaker that cut back on output no thanks to safety scandals. that is part of what markets are digesting. we are seeing the japanese currency still climbing today, below the 154 level. it is really about the lower u.s. yields. tom: checking out...
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May 24, 2024
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, really making the case for the boj to accelerate normalization of policy. bloomberg intelligence is a rate hike in july and another in october. that has implications for bonds in japan. this week we saw the yield on the 10 year reaching the 1% level, hovering at the highest since 2012. bond bears are really up. we are seeing a level breaching 157, really hard to fight the carry trade and higher for longer narratives after the fed. tom: thank you very much indeed, bringing us the details. fascinating stories particularly in the tech semiconductor space. u.s. pmi data for may surprising to the upside, the strong print as a spur to the fed holding rates until at least december. let's bring in garfield reynolds. is this a market are being reminded of the relative resilience of this u.s. economy? >> i think we are being reminded of the relative resilience of the u.s. economy and economies around most of the globe. we have had an understandable re-rating and the potential for rate cuts in the u.s. and pricing 1.5 cuts in it now for 2024. that looks dangerously co
, really making the case for the boj to accelerate normalization of policy. bloomberg intelligence is a rate hike in july and another in october. that has implications for bonds in japan. this week we saw the yield on the 10 year reaching the 1% level, hovering at the highest since 2012. bond bears are really up. we are seeing a level breaching 157, really hard to fight the carry trade and higher for longer narratives after the fed. tom: thank you very much indeed, bringing us the details....
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May 9, 2024
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dipped below 155 .5 earlier, but it is weakening again after the digesting of what we got from the boj summary of opinions. there is a lot to read through when it comes to developments out of japan, as we heard from the boj chief in the past hour, speaking in parliament talking about the need to raise rates if the price trends upwards as expected. this is coming shortly after the summary of opinions show there was a lot of discussion about rate hikes. this is against the backdrop for context, of the recent meeting between ueda and kishida, seemingly giving the green light to monetary policy to cap the weakness in the japanese currency. it looks like that meeting in june is a live one. you can see why the bonds today in japan are coming under pressure. of course, part of the global picture. don't forget, we have another tricky 30-year option to get through tomorrow. haslinda: that's right, of course, en traders on edge right now. avril hong, thank you for that grade we have a line on country garden. it says it can't make that interest payment on the yuan bond. country garden seeking ass
dipped below 155 .5 earlier, but it is weakening again after the digesting of what we got from the boj summary of opinions. there is a lot to read through when it comes to developments out of japan, as we heard from the boj chief in the past hour, speaking in parliament talking about the need to raise rates if the price trends upwards as expected. this is coming shortly after the summary of opinions show there was a lot of discussion about rate hikes. this is against the backdrop for context,...
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May 30, 2024
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as we have seen in the story, there is not a clear direction from boj or the fed yet.ou will see yields and the yen continuing in the upward trend until we get a clear message of this is when cuts are coming or as more than one president has now started to say, maybe there's a hike coming. as long as we sit in the middle ground, we will continue to meander in these directions without much run. >> alex, i was looking at your eyes with the hikes coming. i don't think anybody on wall street is looking at highs. we have two economic reports. pce tomorrow. the fed preferred inflation gauge and the second read of gdp today. the first led to a selloff. what is your expectation today? >> i think we will see more of the same. i don't have any reason to believe gdp miraculously turned around. some of that is not all bad news. we have seen a lot of strong ca indicat indicators, some lagging, and the fed wants some of these to go down. that means rig injury to the labor market. that may be welcome news. >> a soft gdp may be welcome news? the soft gdp before was not good news. it l
as we have seen in the story, there is not a clear direction from boj or the fed yet.ou will see yields and the yen continuing in the upward trend until we get a clear message of this is when cuts are coming or as more than one president has now started to say, maybe there's a hike coming. as long as we sit in the middle ground, we will continue to meander in these directions without much run. >> alex, i was looking at your eyes with the hikes coming. i don't think anybody on wall street...
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May 8, 2024
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dollar weakness reemerge because of rate cuts priced into the market or the boj steps back into the fold and starts to signal tighter monetary policy. ultimately, the yen will be driven by fundamentals. at the moment the fundamentals are not particularly favorable for the japanese yen. there is a question of whether the ministry of finance will intervene again. if it gets close to 160, they probably will. they are really just trying to basically shock the markets as much as possible and give themselves some time to hopefully see the prevailing macroeconomic fundamentals start to move in a more favorable direction for them. the second part of the question, as you said, is we really have not seen a pickup in the nikkei despite the yen radiating significantly remaining around 155 level. it would seem financial stability risk is starting to come into question. and also, the possibility that maybe even if the bank of japan does not adjust its key interest rate, it will maybe have a more active stance trying to guide 10 year jgb, obviously negative for evaluations in japan and it also raises,
dollar weakness reemerge because of rate cuts priced into the market or the boj steps back into the fold and starts to signal tighter monetary policy. ultimately, the yen will be driven by fundamentals. at the moment the fundamentals are not particularly favorable for the japanese yen. there is a question of whether the ministry of finance will intervene again. if it gets close to 160, they probably will. they are really just trying to basically shock the markets as much as possible and give...
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May 9, 2024
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this is perhaps the numbers that the boj would not want to see at this point in time. but that focus on the back of the wage numbers coming into the boj summary of opinions. a lot of different lines dropping out of this. but this need to raise rates appropriately and at the right time and the need to deepen talks on rate hike timing. just some of the headlines dropping from that. also they are saying it is vital to cut bond buying and supply dynamics. here you have that market reaction so far this a slight bit of strength coming into the japanese yen. nikkei 225 online this morning. a little bit of upside but fairly range bound. one of the key commentaries we are getting from wall street in particular is a given that the fed not really doing anything until september at the earliest. we have a lot of earnings in the rearview mirror at this point in time. it is that search for the next catalyst for market direction. let's shift and take a look at the outlook for korea. korea equities just started to trade here. a little to the downside but very much range bound as well.
this is perhaps the numbers that the boj would not want to see at this point in time. but that focus on the back of the wage numbers coming into the boj summary of opinions. a lot of different lines dropping out of this. but this need to raise rates appropriately and at the right time and the need to deepen talks on rate hike timing. just some of the headlines dropping from that. also they are saying it is vital to cut bond buying and supply dynamics. here you have that market reaction so far...
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May 29, 2024
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if you have boj in the negative rate differential by the fed. as market continues to reprice where they think fed action will be in terms of cutting less, than there's a huge debate about whether the terminal fed funds rate is going to be. we just had larry summers in our conference talking about the most likely, if you impair -- compare fomc rate cuts of 2.6, he think it will most likely be 4.6. that kind of tells you that the risk of the runway for fed easing is a lot more limited in that then raises questions of how that's going to influence the trajectory of monetary policy across asia. i think that is really a big concern. you can make an argument across asia. we don't have the same inflation dynamics rbc in the west. we don't have -- obviously we still have some growth challenges, especially with happening in china and the spills -- spillovers of that in the region. to what extent is central-bank policy going to be influenced or constrained by a higher for longer fed? i think that's been the big factor in to the extent that constraint, som
if you have boj in the negative rate differential by the fed. as market continues to reprice where they think fed action will be in terms of cutting less, than there's a huge debate about whether the terminal fed funds rate is going to be. we just had larry summers in our conference talking about the most likely, if you impair -- compare fomc rate cuts of 2.6, he think it will most likely be 4.6. that kind of tells you that the risk of the runway for fed easing is a lot more limited in that...
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May 28, 2024
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investors are getting we will -- but we will get more hikes from the boj.ed in the growth names as well as stocks that benefit from a cheaper urine such as toyota. materials, bankia-related stocks are helping to offset the losses from some of these growth-sector stocks. so the nikkei is down, as is the topix. the yen is stronger. but keep in mind, that is really hard to fight the carry trade. still hovering at relatively weak levels against the greenback. the yield on the 10 year is still sitting above 1%. let's flip the board because this has implications if you look further along the curve at the 30-year. if you are seeing those expectations about japan to hike and china data ease, that is being reflected in the spreads, the tightest in 15 years. it should be something that is good for japanese financial stocks. not so good for china. haslinda: u.s. markets when they return, will be trading at the fastest in about 100 years. what is that about? avril: yes, this is a system change we are bracing for, due to a change in securities regulators' rules. we are
investors are getting we will -- but we will get more hikes from the boj.ed in the growth names as well as stocks that benefit from a cheaper urine such as toyota. materials, bankia-related stocks are helping to offset the losses from some of these growth-sector stocks. so the nikkei is down, as is the topix. the yen is stronger. but keep in mind, that is really hard to fight the carry trade. still hovering at relatively weak levels against the greenback. the yield on the 10 year is still...
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May 9, 2024
05/24
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to be really interesti ing from here o bank of japan is going to manage interest rates >> so, if the boj does make a move, it would seem to me that that would be a permanent move -- a permanent move, meaning they'll stay at that level, higher levels, right? and so, therefore, the ten-year yield would stay at higher levels do you think this is a sustained move above 5%, because of this, or is this just a pop above? because markets have been able to deal with a pop above here and there, but if it's sustained, that's a little bit of a different story >> i think that's a good point, bau because if the link is there, that japanese interest rates go higher and correlation with u.s. rates is there, then that sustained move, as you talked about, would be a completely different world. we have to put intoen c contexta 5% would do, it would put more pressure on the u.s. economy, that would lead people to discounting there would be rate hikes coming in the global rate space as it's being traded, japanese government bonds have never really played a role driving interest rates that's changing now. you
to be really interesti ing from here o bank of japan is going to manage interest rates >> so, if the boj does make a move, it would seem to me that that would be a permanent move -- a permanent move, meaning they'll stay at that level, higher levels, right? and so, therefore, the ten-year yield would stay at higher levels do you think this is a sustained move above 5%, because of this, or is this just a pop above? because markets have been able to deal with a pop above here and there, but...
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May 12, 2024
05/24
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. >> where does the boj go if we see weakness coming through.hey expect inflation to trend down. >> our expectation is we will see modest hikes. we've got one more penciled in for september and i think what is a key driver will be the stance they are delivering is aimed at finding floor for the yen which is weak and adding to imported inflation and the pressure households are failing because of they've got wage growth not really going anywhere in the name got crimping and adding to pressure, a stable yen might help. that is the hope for the bank of japan for this bias. haidi: katrina from moody's. it still ahead, speaking with a japanese firm about challenges of investing in ai in asia and the middle east but first, president biden hiking tariffs with ev's in the crosshairs. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the biden administration is significantly hiking tariffs on chinese goods occluding quadrupling duties on eeev's. stephen engle is here with the details and it is all ahead of the election in november but what do we know? stephen: the election looms l
. >> where does the boj go if we see weakness coming through.hey expect inflation to trend down. >> our expectation is we will see modest hikes. we've got one more penciled in for september and i think what is a key driver will be the stance they are delivering is aimed at finding floor for the yen which is weak and adding to imported inflation and the pressure households are failing because of they've got wage growth not really going anywhere in the name got crimping and adding to...
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May 9, 2024
05/24
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it's a government problem and therefore it's a boj problem.onathan: how many people are going to tokyo? dani: i'm ready to go, it's cherry blossom season. jonathan: is it leaf peaking? dani: all i know is there is a great view of the crossing at the starbucks and that's all i got. lisa: jonathan: let's look at sterling briefly, 29 minutes away from the bank of england decision. $1.24 on cable, totally unchanged and look for the evolution of the vote. you got a couple of officials two meetings a coastal calling for hikes in a drop their call and one official called for a cut. we are trying to work out whether that official gets that. dani: it's david ramsen who says he is less concerned about inflation. his opponent has the same view and that rates needed to be higher for longer. we know it is a split mpc but that is more than what andrew bailey says. we care about the individual members than the man himself. jonathan: looking for the breakdown of the votes in about 20 minutes or so. on surveillance this morning, president biden sending a warni
it's a government problem and therefore it's a boj problem.onathan: how many people are going to tokyo? dani: i'm ready to go, it's cherry blossom season. jonathan: is it leaf peaking? dani: all i know is there is a great view of the crossing at the starbucks and that's all i got. lisa: jonathan: let's look at sterling briefly, 29 minutes away from the bank of england decision. $1.24 on cable, totally unchanged and look for the evolution of the vote. you got a couple of officials two meetings a...
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May 6, 2024
05/24
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the way it took place, everybody was saying this is almost certainly intervention and then we got the boj current account data which made it very, very hard to say this was anything but intervention along with the, you know, sort of coy commentary from japanese officials. they did not say it wasn't intervention. they just did not say it was so to some extent, i think janet yellen is responding to that part of it. the japanese officials are not going to say, yes, this was the intervention. it behooves her kind of not to make them look foolish by saying, yes, this was intervention. my colleagues over there are just, yes, gilding the lily, so i think that is part of it. and for whatever reason, you know, japanese officials are coy about was it or wasn't it an intervention? >> and garfield, switching tack a little bit but as haidi mentioned, one of the big focus is today alongside the japanese yen of course is the reopen for chinese equity markets following that extended rate for the golden holiday period and during that time as well, it was a pretty healthy few sessions for hong kong stocks
the way it took place, everybody was saying this is almost certainly intervention and then we got the boj current account data which made it very, very hard to say this was anything but intervention along with the, you know, sort of coy commentary from japanese officials. they did not say it wasn't intervention. they just did not say it was so to some extent, i think janet yellen is responding to that part of it. the japanese officials are not going to say, yes, this was the intervention. it...
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May 3, 2024
05/24
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we started the week no thanks to a dovish boj. that's quite a recovery this week, helped along by those intervention expectations and speculation that we saw this week along with how the dollar slump. the recovery we are seeing on the yen's its best week against not just the dollar but the pound, the euro since december 2022. in the past 24 hours, the moves have been fairly steady. it doesn't smell like intervention. more likely, this is the trimming of positions. we came into this week with massive shorts. that was the mood on the markets. let's take a look at what we are seeing on the hong kong stock gauges. this chart will show you, they are well into overboard territory. i know it looks like a tie-dye shirt. the point is, it makes you wonder how much of this is the fear of missing out. worth considering, when you take a look at the chinese tech valuations, still well below historical averages and that of their global peers. let's take a look at the apple suppliers. a couple that i wanted to highlight including lg. that stock u
we started the week no thanks to a dovish boj. that's quite a recovery this week, helped along by those intervention expectations and speculation that we saw this week along with how the dollar slump. the recovery we are seeing on the yen's its best week against not just the dollar but the pound, the euro since december 2022. in the past 24 hours, the moves have been fairly steady. it doesn't smell like intervention. more likely, this is the trimming of positions. we came into this week with...
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May 2, 2024
05/24
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expectations that the boj, the ministry of finance intervene.ot had concrete confirmation. 155 on the japanese yen. it popped 3% yesterday. two-year back below 5%. 494, yields came down yesterday. brent, $84 a barrel. shy of that up. go, 2003 hundred 14 per troy ounce. just a little softer. now to geopolitics and the middle east. bloomberg learning the u.s. and saudi arabia are nearing a historic deal that could reshape security in the middle east. let's get the details from our senior editor. what do we know about the potential details of what could be a really consequential deal? bill: this is a deal that was being discussed last year ahead of the outbreak of violence in october between israel and hamas. those talks have resumed in recent weeks and seem to be accelerating. there's a lot of different components. one big part would be getting saudi arabia and israel on the path towards basically having diplomatic relations and normalization of ties. that would require a quick end to this war in gaza, and it would also require prime minister benj
expectations that the boj, the ministry of finance intervene.ot had concrete confirmation. 155 on the japanese yen. it popped 3% yesterday. two-year back below 5%. 494, yields came down yesterday. brent, $84 a barrel. shy of that up. go, 2003 hundred 14 per troy ounce. just a little softer. now to geopolitics and the middle east. bloomberg learning the u.s. and saudi arabia are nearing a historic deal that could reshape security in the middle east. let's get the details from our senior editor....
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May 6, 2024
05/24
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jonathan: the boj, the ministry of finance, how is it with those themes? performance has been mostly driven by micro-developments. we are talking about earnings continuing to deliver. we are talking about benefiting from inflation dynamics, earnings being nominal and corporate reforms. you talk about incentives put in place to encourage companies to deploy their cash more effectively. we are talking about 40% of the index looking to get off that list. macro development as the next driver, which is why we still like it. it gives -- eight gives it an auto hedging quality. yes, it is very volatile, but it helps to offset some of the volatility. lisa: i love your idea of megatrends. there wasn't article in the new york times about not only are they buying gold, but chinese consumers are increasingly buying gold. it is leading to more speculation. are you leading into that? is there more to go as more people will -- whether it is valid or not jump on the gold bandwagon? >> gold is really hard to think about the allocation and what it should be from a constructi
jonathan: the boj, the ministry of finance, how is it with those themes? performance has been mostly driven by micro-developments. we are talking about earnings continuing to deliver. we are talking about benefiting from inflation dynamics, earnings being nominal and corporate reforms. you talk about incentives put in place to encourage companies to deploy their cash more effectively. we are talking about 40% of the index looking to get off that list. macro development as the next driver, which...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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front and center it is about the yen and when we might see intervention or might we see the boj intervene.5%. topix is also up. and it is also a busy week for earnings in japan. take a look at some of those that we are tracking. japanese earnings with a focus on automakers. nissan swinging. it post a forecast that beat expectations. honda investors will be watching for strong profit guidance for the fiscal year after a robust fourth-quarter. analysts expect a share buyback. mazda boosting its operating income guidance for the year earlier this week. mazda down 2.3 and honda lower by .5%. a singapore lender first quarter profit beat estimates. and it made a 1.4 billion singapore dollar offer. what is behind this offer? avril: i think this offer and the move behind it is speaking to ocbc strategy to tap on rising asia wealth. it has strong positions in singapore and dubai and this latest move could go some weight and solidifying its leadership position and wealth management. the offer is 1.4 billion singapore dollars. for the remaining 20% stake it does not have an great eastern. ocbc did s
front and center it is about the yen and when we might see intervention or might we see the boj intervene.5%. topix is also up. and it is also a busy week for earnings in japan. take a look at some of those that we are tracking. japanese earnings with a focus on automakers. nissan swinging. it post a forecast that beat expectations. honda investors will be watching for strong profit guidance for the fiscal year after a robust fourth-quarter. analysts expect a share buyback. mazda boosting its...