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May 14, 2024
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joining me now is stephanie pomboy.and march. what are you expecting from the ppi today and the cpi tomorrow? >> well, i guess with more of the same in terms of the ppi. we're clearly seeing a are reacceleration of commodity price pressures along with, you know, higher shipping costs related to a lot of the geopolitical unrest around the world. so i don't think that's going to abate with anytime soon. and the open question is how much of those input costs can be passed along to consumers. we've gotten a whole slew of data just in the haas week that suggests consumers have really hit the wall at this point. you know, we had earnings announcements with commentary, downbeat with commentary on the consumers from mcdonald's, starbucks, tyson just to name a new high -- few high profile companies. and then last week we got the latest credit card borrowing numbers, and they were essentially zero in the latest month. so there's evidence that consumers have now hit their max in terms of how much they're willing to run up their cr
joining me now is stephanie pomboy.and march. what are you expecting from the ppi today and the cpi tomorrow? >> well, i guess with more of the same in terms of the ppi. we're clearly seeing a are reacceleration of commodity price pressures along with, you know, higher shipping costs related to a lot of the geopolitical unrest around the world. so i don't think that's going to abate with anytime soon. and the open question is how much of those input costs can be passed along to consumers....
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. >> joining me right now macromavens president he stephanie pomboy great to see you you to would meer day after gdp number out, we had growth 1.6% you and i spoke after the number you said what is amazing to me that of the 1.6% growth, 1.2% of it was spending on healthcare, housing, and insurance so i thought wait a second that sounds like all inflation. >> yeah, no, growth or inflation? >> this is the conundrum for the fed, the economy contrary to wall street perception not strong what is driving the economy any one discretionary spending all outages housing healthcare insurance, real disposable income was half the pace of total real spending so how are they sustaining this running down cards to keep up with rising cost of everything why i guess powell feels inflation situation is really sticky, proving more challenging for them, the journey from 9 to 3 was easy part, from 3 to 2 proving much harder than i think they expected it would be. >> why? >> well -- >> maybe tsunami spending. >> it might have something to do with fiscal stimulus you a look at the economy basically a death d
. >> joining me right now macromavens president he stephanie pomboy great to see you you to would meer day after gdp number out, we had growth 1.6% you and i spoke after the number you said what is amazing to me that of the 1.6% growth, 1.2% of it was spending on healthcare, housing, and insurance so i thought wait a second that sounds like all inflation. >> yeah, no, growth or inflation? >> this is the conundrum for the fed, the economy contrary to wall street perception not...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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pomboy worried about macrostory stephanie pomboy from macromavens with me last week. >> this is the for the fed, the economy contrary to wall street perception not strong what is about driving economy is nondiscretionary spending housing healthcare insurance, real disposable incomes half pace of total real spending how sustaining this consumers drawing down saving run up coordinator debt to keep up with rising coast of everything, why i guess paul feels this inflation is sticky proving more challenging for them journey from 9 to 3 was easy part getting from 3 to 2 is much harder than i it can they expected it would be. louis, that can't be good if gdp was up 1.6% stephanie says 1.6%, a full 1.2% was spending on housing healthcare, insurance. >> yeah, no, i am not -- insurance costs skyrocketed i lost insurance 8 years ago in a fire zone costs prohibitive to get insurance here interesting, we have a two-tiered economy boomers have money homes and stocks having kids don't have money the kids getting increasingly restless, don't see how they can succeed, buy a house that stuff getting
pomboy worried about macrostory stephanie pomboy from macromavens with me last week. >> this is the for the fed, the economy contrary to wall street perception not strong what is about driving economy is nondiscretionary spending housing healthcare insurance, real disposable incomes half pace of total real spending how sustaining this consumers drawing down saving run up coordinator debt to keep up with rising coast of everything, why i guess paul feels this inflation is sticky proving...
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pomboy made the point 1.2% of that 1.6% growth was spending on housing, insurance, and healthcare. >just inflation. >> exactly the point that i was basically trying to make earlier that there wasn't a lot of discretionary spending where interest rates are inverted yield curve bank lending standards very tight one could expect consumer goods the heavy lifting sense pained not services about it rather goods you will see pullback in good spending in part because skw consumers have satiated demand the cost of bothering is high everyone at margin if consumer slows wage growth, unemployment should follow. >> what about, when you look at consumer confidence, nancy says watch middle income consumer confidence they drives consumption. she is right you the university of michigan much more comprehensive than conference board survey has been around recessionary readings a long time it improved but still very, very depressed to steve's point overall cost-of-living has far outstripped reasonably largely out stripped growth in household income wages why people feel so down beat despite on surface l
pomboy made the point 1.2% of that 1.6% growth was spending on housing, insurance, and healthcare. >just inflation. >> exactly the point that i was basically trying to make earlier that there wasn't a lot of discretionary spending where interest rates are inverted yield curve bank lending standards very tight one could expect consumer goods the heavy lifting sense pained not services about it rather goods you will see pullback in good spending in part because skw consumers have...
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May 15, 2024
05/24
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pomboy the favorite line with, amazon not a consumer products company stuck in my head market gainingother sectors that are powering the market look at walmart normal i think walmart likely a game changer so much buzz about that earnings report nuts and bolts on what is happening for retailer like walmart also now grocery business. maria: that is a beneficiary i think everybody is trying to trade down, they want to get the dollar stores cheaper stuff walmart has been benefiting interest all of this, it will -- cheryl: my point that report is going to show you, what with consumers really, really doing going for change, to walmart for groceries more grocery type stores making all money, fair enough i will say, i again i think that is one-off i think when may cpi comes out i think story will reverse only going off the data year-to-date. maria: i agree with you walmart one to watch and nvidia, biggies in the upcoming week, walmart tomorrow nvidia next wednesday 22nd adam, we've gotten a better number in order to justify this huge rally in stocks? i mean this is not, 3.4% inflation. adam:
pomboy the favorite line with, amazon not a consumer products company stuck in my head market gainingother sectors that are powering the market look at walmart normal i think walmart likely a game changer so much buzz about that earnings report nuts and bolts on what is happening for retailer like walmart also now grocery business. maria: that is a beneficiary i think everybody is trying to trade down, they want to get the dollar stores cheaper stuff walmart has been benefiting interest all of...
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May 15, 2024
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maria: yesterday, stephanie pomboy was on the program.he doesn't think the economy is strong at all. watch this. >> they're on hold until a wheel falls off and i anticipate the wheel is going to fall off sometime reasonably soon and then they will as is their standard operating procedures hrush in an panic and expand the balance sheet again. i think we'll see rate cuts but it will come after the crisis. maria: perhaps we go into a recession, the economy weakens further, that will be the trigger for the fed to cut rates. >> what we've seen in terms of the movement in the unemployment rate, we may be in recession already. that increase may not sound like much. historically once you move five tenths you move straight line up 3 percentage points. we may have started the recession already. maria: she's talking about the schemes of buy now, pay later, consumers using credit cards, inflation still a problem. she says when you look under the hood it's not all that great. >> i think that's a dangerous game to play. if you've been betting against t
maria: yesterday, stephanie pomboy was on the program.he doesn't think the economy is strong at all. watch this. >> they're on hold until a wheel falls off and i anticipate the wheel is going to fall off sometime reasonably soon and then they will as is their standard operating procedures hrush in an panic and expand the balance sheet again. i think we'll see rate cuts but it will come after the crisis. maria: perhaps we go into a recession, the economy weakens further, that will be the...
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maria: everything you laid out is what stephanie pomboy has been saying for some time. the macro story. here she is last week on this program. >> this is the conundrum for the fed. the economy contrary to wall street's perception is not strong. what's driving the economy is nondiscretionary spending and within that 1q gdp n number whee the spending was on housing, healthcare and insurance. real disposable incomes rose half the pace of total real spending. so how are they sustaining this? consumers obviously as we know are drawing down savings and running up credit card debt just to keep up with the rising cost of everything which is why i guess powell feels like this inflation situation is really sticky and proving to be a little more challenging for them. you know, the journey from 9 to 3 was the easy part. getting from 3 to 2 is proving much harder than i think they expected it would be. maria: mario, that's why nancy lazar from piper sandler is expecting a recession, second half of the year. >> yeah. i think that was a great interview and i couldn't agree more. the l
maria: everything you laid out is what stephanie pomboy has been saying for some time. the macro story. here she is last week on this program. >> this is the conundrum for the fed. the economy contrary to wall street's perception is not strong. what's driving the economy is nondiscretionary spending and within that 1q gdp n number whee the spending was on housing, healthcare and insurance. real disposable incomes rose half the pace of total real spending. so how are they sustaining this?...
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stephanie pomboy pointed out that, you know, growth is slowing.t 1.6 president in the first quarter, and she said out of that. 6%, consumer spending on housing, health care and insurance was 1.2%, okay? so off the 1.6 growth which is, by the way, all the way down from 4.9% in the third quarter of last year, the bulk of it was spending on housing and insurance and health care. that tells me it's all about inflation. and that's the one thing that has made people feel much worse today than four years ago. is secretary janet yellen testified yesterday before a house committee, he told lawmakers that that americans are better off financially now than four years ago. watch this. >> we saw saw new data come out on the employment cost index that measures compensation, and and it was up if nominal -- in nominal terms. and in inflation-adjusted terms, it showed that over the last year compensation on average is increased just under a percentage point for most families. so people, generally, are better off -- maria: people are better off. but, thomas, you go
stephanie pomboy pointed out that, you know, growth is slowing.t 1.6 president in the first quarter, and she said out of that. 6%, consumer spending on housing, health care and insurance was 1.2%, okay? so off the 1.6 growth which is, by the way, all the way down from 4.9% in the third quarter of last year, the bulk of it was spending on housing and insurance and health care. that tells me it's all about inflation. and that's the one thing that has made people feel much worse today than four...
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i mean, stephanie pomboy pointed out that the 1.6% growth in the gdp in the first quarter, out of thaton insurance, on health care and one other thing, spending. but the bottom lean is it's ennation, it and looks like growth. >> the yeah. and that's an insightful comment from stephanie, i've got to give her credit for that one. i would also argue when you see costs like this rise, homeowners insurance, etc.,st it's jet another -- yet another example of what happens when interest rates go up. all this stuff is financed, and when you are financing stuff at a higher rate, by definition it costs more. so for any number of reasons, homeowners insurance being yet another one, i do hope we see rates come down. hr. if more all right. we will take a short break come right back. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. stay with us. ♪ ♪ while i am a paid actor, and this is not a real company, there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. upwork is half the cost of our old recruiter and they have top-tier talent and everything from pr to project management because
i mean, stephanie pomboy pointed out that the 1.6% growth in the gdp in the first quarter, out of thaton insurance, on health care and one other thing, spending. but the bottom lean is it's ennation, it and looks like growth. >> the yeah. and that's an insightful comment from stephanie, i've got to give her credit for that one. i would also argue when you see costs like this rise, homeowners insurance, etc.,st it's jet another -- yet another example of what happens when interest rates go...
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May 14, 2024
05/24
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congressman dan meuser, doug holtz-eakin, stephanie pomboy, mike lee, cheryl casone, thank you so much. 30 minutes away from the opening bell, the dow jones industrial average right now is up better than 30 points. the nasdaq and the s&p are flat. let's hand it over to stuart. "varney & company" picks it up. stu, take it away. stuart: good morning, everyone. this is inflation data week. consumer prices tomorrow, producer prices out about half an hour ago. here's what we have. in april, prices paid by businesses went up a much bigger than expected 0.5%. that is the hottest read sense february. over the last year, producer prices went up 32.2% -- 2.2%, and that's the highest since april of 2023. a strongen inflation report today. here's the market reaction, subdued. when those numbers first came can out, the market went straight down. we've recovered a lot. the dow is actually up 20 points, the s&p is down a mere 2, and the nasdaq down 40 points, that's it. the 10-year treasury yield with, well, that's moved up above -- no, it just dropped back below, it was just above 4.5%, now it's 4.4
congressman dan meuser, doug holtz-eakin, stephanie pomboy, mike lee, cheryl casone, thank you so much. 30 minutes away from the opening bell, the dow jones industrial average right now is up better than 30 points. the nasdaq and the s&p are flat. let's hand it over to stuart. "varney & company" picks it up. stu, take it away. stuart: good morning, everyone. this is inflation data week. consumer prices tomorrow, producer prices out about half an hour ago. here's what we have....