lichtman is sure that gore’s victory was simply stolen. is not surveys and ratings, because they are not forecasts, but snapshots of reality; they have no scientific or predictive value. the prediction is based on an analysis of data from every us presidential election from 1860, when lincoln was elected, to 1980, when reagan won. i developed this system in the eighty-first year, together with the world's leading scientist in the field of earthquake forecasting, vladimir keilis borok. we used his method of identifying seismic patterns to see which geophysical processes lead to stability. on the contrary, american elections are essentially a referendum for or against the party that controls the white house, the party was deprived of the power of the earthquake. after analyzing 120 years of american history, we have developed a system of 13 question keys, each requiring a yes or no answer, they reflect the potential assessment of the actions of the party in power. any six negative answer keys - earthquake, the party that controls the white h

lichtman met keilis borok, a member of more than just.erican academy of sciences in eighty-one, when he came on a business trip to california. the idea belonged to him. he said, in washington, i fell in love with politics, and i always wanted to use earthquake forecasting to test the outcome of elections. but i live in the soviet union, we have a supreme leader. and my head will be torn off if i do this. and you're an expert on american history. usa and we became the odd couple of american political analysis. the questions that forecasters answer are really simple. for example, after the last midterm elections, the ruling party has more seats in congress, through previous ones. is there intra-party competition for a candidate? is the economy in recession? during the current presidency, are there any serious military or foreign policy failures during the presidency, do rivals have charisma and are national heroes , and so on. the world is changing, american society is changing, does the model invented more than 40 years ago really work? ev

there is a person in the usa who believes... is never wrong, historian alan lichtman, a professor atmerican university in washington, accurately predicted the winner nine out of ten presidential elections since '84. the only miss was in 2000, when george w. bush became president rather than al gore, but there the winners were ultimately decided by the supreme court. lichtman is confident that the mountain will win. just stolen, my system is not polls and ratings, because they are not forecasts, but snapshots of reality, they have no scientific or prognostic value, my prediction method is based on the analysis of data from all presidential elections in the united states, since 1860, when lincoln was elected until 198 when reagan won, i developed this system in eighty-one with '. he worked at the institute of physics of the earth, the ussr academy of sciences, then was the founder and first director of the international institute of the theory of earthquake forecasting and mathematical geophysics of the russian academy of sciences. by the late sixties, his authority was so high that du

lichtman. thank you very much. we appreciate you and we'll be back with you a little bit later to see how your prediction holds up about the impact of this debate. thank you catch my live show every thursday at 9:00 p.m. eastern. >> at allan lichtman, youtube and follow the keys. >> thanks, alan up next for us to remorseful january 6, rioter joins me after the supreme court rules some of their charges and sentences should be changed. >> july 4 cnn concert with coast-to-coast fireworks. shows performances by keith urban, a surety ev wrexham, the killers, tp chris young reo speedway, again, invoke came brown, google dollars, and many more celebrate go forwards in, america. a cnn concert event thursday, july 4 at 70 on cnn that the cabin for three days what i'm trove our short on weekends no, neither is blown weekend would pay calm employees do their own payroll. >> so you can fix problems before they become problems. get paid, calm, and make the unnecessary unnecessary see you down a lot one second, you feel safe pol

former coconspirators in watergate former chief of staff, bob haldeman, former attorney general, john or lichtman or excuse me, john mitchell and then former domestic adviser jon or lightman. all three they were the three most powerful men in the nixon white house and nixon administration. when they went to jail after watergate, they were innocent men the probation officer visited with them about eight months into their serving their sentence. they were then guilty and very remorseful about what they had done as a result of that, the judge ended up shortening they're their sentences but somehow the reality of going to jail can make people think if they don't admit they're their wrongs and their misbehavior, they can come to understand it. i think trump's she needs some jail time. he is just totally unrepentant. he'll do it again. he'll do it again worse. he's on a road then you campaign. and so i hope this judge sends him to jail it's interesting. >> i had a julian zelizer on a little bit, just a little bit ago. and he, of course, of presidential historian and we were talking about the fact that