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Jul 24, 2024
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bill dudley is no uber duff. this fed should get a move on, and he was talking about five when hardly anyone was talking about five interest rates. up until recently, he was saying there's a risk of inflation, but this is a big change. when you go through the body of this piece on bloomberg opinion, this opinion has built up his view of what's developing in the labor market. that's front and center for a lot of economists at moment. lisa: which is the reason why jobless claims are going to be really important. the idea that that's risen to the highest level since 2021, how quickly this is deteriorating, that's why the red fin data was so interesting. deals are collapsing at a record pace in the housing market because people are assessing the monthly costs and wondering what they can actually afford. there is this feeling that things are deteriorating at a faster clip. maybe not falling off a cliff, but maybe signaling a bit of a change in the economic cycle. jonathan: feels like things are starting to pause, hous
bill dudley is no uber duff. this fed should get a move on, and he was talking about five when hardly anyone was talking about five interest rates. up until recently, he was saying there's a risk of inflation, but this is a big change. when you go through the body of this piece on bloomberg opinion, this opinion has built up his view of what's developing in the labor market. that's front and center for a lot of economists at moment. lisa: which is the reason why jobless claims are going to be...
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Jul 25, 2024
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bill dudley says they have got to cut rates.nd you say i don't know. jonathan: the pricing of everything this morning, equity futures looking something like this, fading those losses on the s&p, fading a bit of the rally in the bond market. just a touch, still lower, still down on the day, but not as low as it was on the two-year and the 10 year, six basis points. jobless claims, jobless claims, jobless claims. all that labor market data is the difference between having time and running out of it. if you look at that in isolation this morning, the picture around claims is a bit better and the people who have time have more data behind them. lisa: the people that say they don't have time will say that things can happening as can happen quickly with a lot of weakening and it makes the data more complicated for the fed. especially when you look at the internals of the gdp print you are seeing upside surprise to the core pce price index over three months. we are looking at a pretty strong read at a time when jobless claims are falli
bill dudley says they have got to cut rates.nd you say i don't know. jonathan: the pricing of everything this morning, equity futures looking something like this, fading those losses on the s&p, fading a bit of the rally in the bond market. just a touch, still lower, still down on the day, but not as low as it was on the two-year and the 10 year, six basis points. jobless claims, jobless claims, jobless claims. all that labor market data is the difference between having time and running out...
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Jul 26, 2024
07/24
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including bill dudley. he said they were already behind the curve. with more soft cpi data it looks as though september will be a great cut and may be a big one. in the market is pricing that and you can see the inversion coming nicely out of the treasury curve with a bit more to go in that space. tom: you have been early and calling and putting on the table the prospects for a potential jumbo cut coming through from the fed in september. we are fascinated to see bill dudley and others early on the risk of inflation coming back. mark cranfield, strategist for mliv team. politics and the u.s. -- harris has said she has pressed netanyahu to accept a cease-fire and warning him about the death toll in gaza. the meeting in washington is their first since the vice president entered the race for the white house. it is a possible departure to biden's approach to the situation in gaza. >> it is time for this war to end an end in a way that israel is take your, the hostages -- is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in gaza ends, and the palestinia
including bill dudley. he said they were already behind the curve. with more soft cpi data it looks as though september will be a great cut and may be a big one. in the market is pricing that and you can see the inversion coming nicely out of the treasury curve with a bit more to go in that space. tom: you have been early and calling and putting on the table the prospects for a potential jumbo cut coming through from the fed in september. we are fascinated to see bill dudley and others early on...
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Jul 26, 2024
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you heard those comments by bill dudley, and a lot of that was anchored in this idea that if the fed were to wait, they would risk a recession. do you believe that to be the case? ed: things are starting to shift in that direction for the fed has been acknowledging we have been a focus on inflation close of the over the past two years, it was an appropriate focus, and now we are starting to see downside risk to employment, and we should be acting on them in some point in the fall. sonali: how do you feel about this dynamic? if you have rates stay higher, at least until september, when the market is really exciting the fed to cut, what else starts to weaken? erik: i think if you look at market pricing, we are already there for a september cut. very literally, if they have to wait until september, the market will not necessarily move if they cut when he five basis. it is kind of a semantic point, but the market's already done some of the easing work for the fed here. in terms of the u.s. economy and where we currently sit, our labor market has certainly softened, but it is not at a poi
you heard those comments by bill dudley, and a lot of that was anchored in this idea that if the fed were to wait, they would risk a recession. do you believe that to be the case? ed: things are starting to shift in that direction for the fed has been acknowledging we have been a focus on inflation close of the over the past two years, it was an appropriate focus, and now we are starting to see downside risk to employment, and we should be acting on them in some point in the fall. sonali: how...
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Jul 30, 2024
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do you think it has to be tomorrow like what allen blinder and bill dudley are saying?'re saying come on, let's get this on the road. >> well, there's lots of debates and debates on the other side for sure. there's the question, go too far and you're stuck like it was before. sot thing is don't go too far, take it easy, and we'll be fine. i think it should be fine and the problem is you're going too far and get in trouble. liz: okay, but tomorrow, professor? should it be tomorrow? >> i don't think s. i don't think so. there's a debate going on and a lot of discussion on both sides quite frankly and so we'll see what happens. liz: now, let's pretend i'm your student at stanford. all though i was at the rival berkeley, okay. so we don't like you cardinals, but for these purposes let's do it. i'm a student and asking you, has the fed done a good job and are we on track for a soft landing or a recession? >> we're on track for a soft landing but has to be done gradually and the target is 2% and jay powell mention that had and we're above 2%. down 2% and slowly predictable wa
do you think it has to be tomorrow like what allen blinder and bill dudley are saying?'re saying come on, let's get this on the road. >> well, there's lots of debates and debates on the other side for sure. there's the question, go too far and you're stuck like it was before. sot thing is don't go too far, take it easy, and we'll be fine. i think it should be fine and the problem is you're going too far and get in trouble. liz: okay, but tomorrow, professor? should it be tomorrow?...
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Jul 30, 2024
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the fed should cut interest rates this week from bill dudley. the former vice chairman of the federal reserve in the mid-1990's. that is mohamed el-erian as well. not saying that they will cut rates this month, but asks the question, why wait? we have seen this repeatedly from quite a few big names. lisa: the flipside is the reason they would not cut. it is kind of ridiculous saying they should, they are not going to. he basically acknowledged they will probably do it in september. they don't want to catch the market off guard. they have been saying we will telegraph what will happen. we want to make sure that the forward guidance is appropriate. is not going to alarm markets? suggest that there is something that the fed is saying that markets are not, especially given that the rhetoric so far has been pretty cautious and balanced? jonathan: if bill was the new york fed president and put out this piece the market would be spooked. could you imagine if he was still a fed official? lisa: i think he probably would not have written it. you can corre
the fed should cut interest rates this week from bill dudley. the former vice chairman of the federal reserve in the mid-1990's. that is mohamed el-erian as well. not saying that they will cut rates this month, but asks the question, why wait? we have seen this repeatedly from quite a few big names. lisa: the flipside is the reason they would not cut. it is kind of ridiculous saying they should, they are not going to. he basically acknowledged they will probably do it in september. they don't...
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Jul 30, 2024
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charles: last week bill dudley, of course in charge of the new york fed at one point, said he changede on the table. here's the thing, you gave us three reasons why they wouldn't do it. let's not forget in 2019 dudley also urged the fed not to cooperate with donald trump. i mean this guy hates trump so much. that brings in the political aspect, right? if they were to cut tomorrow, maybe even september, they could get some pushback from the republican party no? >> absolutely. as you readily mentioned bill dudley used to be the third most important person in the federal reserve and he seems to really not like trump so much so that he wrote the op-ed which i think was very inappropriate. now i think these political considerations could play into how the fed thinks but the truth is if you look at donation data, basically everyone who works at the fed is a member of the democratic party and a lot of people there in my personal experience really don't like trump. so you know, they probably don't want to appear to be motivated by politics but i really do think that plays a role and that actu
charles: last week bill dudley, of course in charge of the new york fed at one point, said he changede on the table. here's the thing, you gave us three reasons why they wouldn't do it. let's not forget in 2019 dudley also urged the fed not to cooperate with donald trump. i mean this guy hates trump so much. that brings in the political aspect, right? if they were to cut tomorrow, maybe even september, they could get some pushback from the republican party no? >> absolutely. as you...
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Jul 26, 2024
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lisa: one thing we were talking about with bill dudley was why now.at it's time to cut rates given that the economy is still hanging in there? you are saying why wait because you see enough signs of weakening. you point to something else and that is the downward revisions in the labor market for prior months, and that concerns you. why is that important? mark: the plethora of labor market data suggests it is downshifting in a meaningful way. the downward revisions in previous reports is consistent with that. there is all the other evidence. i was worked was down. how ring -- hiring rates are down. temp jobs are down. the only thing hanging in there is layoffs. they are low and that is great. we don't have a good theory as to why businesses are so reluctant to lay off. we have theories but they feel tenuous to me. as we saw in the tech sector a year ago, high-flying companies can turn around quickly and start laying off workers quickly. things can change very fast and when they change, it's too late. it is not only about the labor market. it is about t
lisa: one thing we were talking about with bill dudley was why now.at it's time to cut rates given that the economy is still hanging in there? you are saying why wait because you see enough signs of weakening. you point to something else and that is the downward revisions in the labor market for prior months, and that concerns you. why is that important? mark: the plethora of labor market data suggests it is downshifting in a meaningful way. the downward revisions in previous reports is...
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Jul 26, 2024
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where the yen goes depends on what the fed does and we have bill dudley saying the central bank has no reason to cut rates. dudley: there is not a strong case for waiting. if the fed does not cut in -- in -- in july there is a negative feedback loop. people pullback on spending. paul: stick around, we will get more on markets with our first guest who thinks one cut is a given in the best case is to rate cuts. i want to start off with the question of the day. do you feel like next week's meeting might reverse the selloff in stocks? >> nobody has a crystal ball. what is more important are the numbers this week, everyone is expecting a downturn but surprises are normal and they came in higher than expected so we feel a balance of risk to the upside. look at the month to month decline on pce. most probably they will keep a communication approach. first rate cut cons in september. paul: i want to pause and mention the headline across the bottom of the screen, china's 10 year yield falling to a record low of 2.181. pboc eight stopping a bond rally , not really working out. let's get back to
where the yen goes depends on what the fed does and we have bill dudley saying the central bank has no reason to cut rates. dudley: there is not a strong case for waiting. if the fed does not cut in -- in -- in july there is a negative feedback loop. people pullback on spending. paul: stick around, we will get more on markets with our first guest who thinks one cut is a given in the best case is to rate cuts. i want to start off with the question of the day. do you feel like next week's meeting...
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Jul 25, 2024
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as the fed cuts, now looking september, although bill dudley called for june, july rather, small caps stand to benefit. they are outperforming for the 10th time in 11 days. the u.s. elections, therefore we see lower taxes, based and to benefit. we see other parts of the market now shining. caroline: volumes are hard today. so are the benchmarks. appreciate the deep dive. service now managing to push away the anxiety by reporting better than expected second-quarter earnings wednesday after the bell. the president be resigning after a probe. i broke it all down with bill mcdermott. bill: i have been blessed with 25,000 of the best i have ever worked with. they come to work for our customers. we built this for business transformation. ceos need to grow businesses. they cannot do it unless they simplify. they are complex. clean up the mess to serve customers, employees and innovators better. they are doing it on one common platform. the genai revolution is real for us because we built it. we have domain specific llm's. we work with customer data. zero latency with speed. it is highly secu
as the fed cuts, now looking september, although bill dudley called for june, july rather, small caps stand to benefit. they are outperforming for the 10th time in 11 days. the u.s. elections, therefore we see lower taxes, based and to benefit. we see other parts of the market now shining. caroline: volumes are hard today. so are the benchmarks. appreciate the deep dive. service now managing to push away the anxiety by reporting better than expected second-quarter earnings wednesday after the...
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Jul 31, 2024
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bill dudley, i changed my mind, the fed needs to cut.ings from a policy mistake. it was put out yesterday, and i think frank perfectly, the risk of higher unemployment is much higher than the risk of rising inflation. we have to say on this program that the federal reserve is not in the crystal ball business. they are not meant to be amazing predictors of the future. they are in the risk management is nice. if they ask themselves the question, what is the biggest risk? inflation shifting higher or unemployment climbing? how do we need to respond accordingly? lisa: the market is saying that inflation is not the problem. we heard from julian emanuel that we have renewed confidence inflation is coming down. think of all of the retail companies, consumer-facing companies, saying they can only raise prices 1% come the lowest since the pandemic. the issue for the federal reserve is, is this dormant or something that has been killed? a lack of understanding there. on the flipside you are seeing internal and topside deterioration in the labor ma
bill dudley, i changed my mind, the fed needs to cut.ings from a policy mistake. it was put out yesterday, and i think frank perfectly, the risk of higher unemployment is much higher than the risk of rising inflation. we have to say on this program that the federal reserve is not in the crystal ball business. they are not meant to be amazing predictors of the future. they are in the risk management is nice. if they ask themselves the question, what is the biggest risk? inflation shifting higher...
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Jul 31, 2024
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bill dudley called for a rate cut in july. others have talked about the need for a 50-basis point cut. michael: economists are suggesting the fed is behind the curve. jim bullard said as much on bloomberg television this morning. the fed went into its quiet period without seeing it was considering rate cuts in july. the feeling is they do not want to surprise the markets. the mother of the rule said the fed might be putting more emphasis on its communications policy that on its monetary policy. scarlet: michael mckee, thank you so much. michael mckee in washington. he will break down the fed decision when it comes at 2:00 p.m. jay powell will take the lectern at 2:30. let's continue the conversation on fed with kim friedricks. a little bit more. are you comfortable with what the market is pricing in in terms of a rate cut in september? some are talking about two cuts for 2024? kim: that seems very reasonable at this point. the fed has set themselves up in a perfect situation. they signal everything today and tell the world we
bill dudley called for a rate cut in july. others have talked about the need for a 50-basis point cut. michael: economists are suggesting the fed is behind the curve. jim bullard said as much on bloomberg television this morning. the fed went into its quiet period without seeing it was considering rate cuts in july. the feeling is they do not want to surprise the markets. the mother of the rule said the fed might be putting more emphasis on its communications policy that on its monetary policy....
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Jul 29, 2024
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so i think that on wednesday to be candid bill dudley former fed governor in new york also said that, we are going to get a very dovish state but do the:00 going to tulz on fomc how many rate cuts they expect this year. >> a question. liz: i was going to ask about cutting rates alan brianer in "the wall street journal" advocating for cut right now arguing -- we may never get 2% i think majority is with september but certainly a vocal minority including yourself i guess saying this week would be good time to cut rates. >> yeah, alan, incredibly respected people fed i am sure hearing them, but the only reason, inflation u.s., other countries is -- it finally started to cool off a bit once you leave manhattan prices are falling everywhere even hot markets i'm in florida falling here falling austin, texas rentals available in texas going to show up soon we are going to be there. >> louis navellier we he shall see what they do a lot more coming up this this morning 99 days away from the election. new fox news polls that former president trump leading harris by one point in wisconsin where
so i think that on wednesday to be candid bill dudley former fed governor in new york also said that, we are going to get a very dovish state but do the:00 going to tulz on fomc how many rate cuts they expect this year. >> a question. liz: i was going to ask about cutting rates alan brianer in "the wall street journal" advocating for cut right now arguing -- we may never get 2% i think majority is with september but certainly a vocal minority including yourself i guess saying...
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Jul 25, 2024
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former new york federal reserve bill dudley's editorial yesterday was the issue for the worrywart crowdi changed my mind about the economy. the third issue is seasonality is a big factor here. volatility increases from july to october. goldman sachs noted that the inflection date when the s&p sees more down days is july 17th with the peak in september and not really stopping until the end of october. flipping positive. that's the tell. back to you. >> as bob mentioned, tech is the factor of the market volatility with the major focus on the mag seven. each falling between 2% to 12% yesterday. tesla down 12%. steve kovach joins us more on the tech wreck. steve. >> hey, frank, it was the first wave of big tech earnings that sparked the selloff. tesla was bad which was enough to send peers down in sympathy. nasdaq had the worst day since october of 2022 falling more than 3.5%. check out the scorecard from yesterday's close on the back of the earnings. tesla dropped 12%. alphabet fell 5%. and in sympathy, microsoft down 3% and apple fell 3%. nvidia down 7%. the wreckage down the line for the
former new york federal reserve bill dudley's editorial yesterday was the issue for the worrywart crowdi changed my mind about the economy. the third issue is seasonality is a big factor here. volatility increases from july to october. goldman sachs noted that the inflection date when the s&p sees more down days is july 17th with the peak in september and not really stopping until the end of october. flipping positive. that's the tell. back to you. >> as bob mentioned, tech is the...
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Jul 30, 2024
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i think bill dudley's article on bloomberg, actually, just a few days ago, signaling that, you know, the fed need to start cutting and quickly, i think really moved expectations to a dovish sort of, i suppose, pricing for the fed, as well as the rhetoric expected. so i think the fed live up to expectations. i think the bank of japan disappoint expectations as a consequence in the short-term i think the yen can weaken against the dollar as a result. avril: what about the aussie dollar? you see a fair bit of upside there, but, i mean, inflation is one thing, bullish remarks from the governor is one thing, but do you see a tightening this cycle? wayne: our call is we have interest -- we have an interest rate hike at their next meeting. the reasons behind that -- our expectation for inflation print this week, we think that core inflation in australia will come out around 1.1%. that is above the rba's expectations of inflation. the rba governor has expressed her patience with bringing inflation down to target is getting thin, so as a consequence, i think the rba could actually engage in a
i think bill dudley's article on bloomberg, actually, just a few days ago, signaling that, you know, the fed need to start cutting and quickly, i think really moved expectations to a dovish sort of, i suppose, pricing for the fed, as well as the rhetoric expected. so i think the fed live up to expectations. i think the bank of japan disappoint expectations as a consequence in the short-term i think the yen can weaken against the dollar as a result. avril: what about the aussie dollar? you see a...
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Jul 24, 2024
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katie: the bill dudley trade. a lot of people are this morning. want to go back to small caps because with the idea that we've landed and we are seeing some wobbles in that a.i. story and at the same time that rotation that we're seeing into small caps. when you think about the index and the markets as a whole, are we going to see a catch-up for small caps? can that continue? or are we going to see a catchdown for big tech? stephanie: i think it's more of a catch-up but big tech has high expectations. so you are seeing a bit of a rotation. you've seen it from tech to financials, industrials and that's why small caps gets the best because 17% in industrials, 18% in financials in small caps space. it's going to be tough for tech in the near term but i think it needs to go through a revaluation. matt: any trump trade thoughts, stephanie? i mean, or harris trade. it's more likely that you have thoughts on, you know, trump policy that he's talking about on the campaign trail. is he actually going to put it into action on immigration, on taxes, on tarif
katie: the bill dudley trade. a lot of people are this morning. want to go back to small caps because with the idea that we've landed and we are seeing some wobbles in that a.i. story and at the same time that rotation that we're seeing into small caps. when you think about the index and the markets as a whole, are we going to see a catch-up for small caps? can that continue? or are we going to see a catchdown for big tech? stephanie: i think it's more of a catch-up but big tech has high...
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Jul 24, 2024
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rick, some people making a lot of what bill dudley said and how he's concerned about the economy andeld seems to be moving higher and i don't know, what do you think is going on here? >> i'm not going to speak for mr. dudley, but what i can do is let's look at the three maturities on the yield curve. let's look at a two, a 10 and 30 on top of each other and you can clearly see that the two-year yield is more moderate. right now it's down about 3 1/2, four basis points and as you move alongs, a 30 is up almost six basis points. now let's look around at what's going on. nasdaq. the nasdaq is down, what? about 3%. many times you get a flight to safety and treasurys and that could be part of the reason short maturities like a two year and a three year are getting buying, keeping yields lower. in addition it's also getting a tailwind from the notion of comments like mr. dudley who is actually believing that there is a possibility of an ease at the july meeting. no matter how you slice it, the markets are not pricing that in and not a possibility and by september, they're pricing one cut f
rick, some people making a lot of what bill dudley said and how he's concerned about the economy andeld seems to be moving higher and i don't know, what do you think is going on here? >> i'm not going to speak for mr. dudley, but what i can do is let's look at the three maturities on the yield curve. let's look at a two, a 10 and 30 on top of each other and you can clearly see that the two-year yield is more moderate. right now it's down about 3 1/2, four basis points and as you move...
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Jul 24, 2024
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but one quick point, there's an interesting commentary from bill dudley who is saying maybe it's time to cut in july. i've been on board for that for the following reason. i compared the federal reserve to a christmas retailer. you have to order in the summer for what you want in christmas. the way people want the fed to act is like a retailer in november to order what they want on the shelves in december. it's too late by then. you must play to some extent a forecast. >> but you know what? i exactly agree with that, except i'm going to take the other side. what you don't want -- i want christmas, but i don't want to order inflation. because you can argue that will just preorder inflation, and i'll go -- you guys are arguing what a rate cut could do to housing. housing prices will go up. when i'm wrong, call me back. >> you're rarely wrong. quit final comment on the markets -- >> hold on. what happens to housing affordability? >> that's a good question, okay? that's a fair question. but housing affordability is the highest ever. i understand. housing prices will go up. >> do you ultim
but one quick point, there's an interesting commentary from bill dudley who is saying maybe it's time to cut in july. i've been on board for that for the following reason. i compared the federal reserve to a christmas retailer. you have to order in the summer for what you want in christmas. the way people want the fed to act is like a retailer in november to order what they want on the shelves in december. it's too late by then. you must play to some extent a forecast. >> but you know...
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Jul 26, 2024
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bill dudley out saying, hey, got to cut immediately. starting to see a rollover, close to the rule, in unemployment. so there are risks, but what we've seen in that this economy is so sensitive to interest rates i think the moment the fed cuts, or the -- as the market starts to digest fed cuts brings rates down before the fed actually does, an accumulative effect. spending, housing you right at rates came down in november immediately start to spike up from about 2% to 5% on three-months annualized basis and came down as rates came back up again. we do have so much sensitivity to interest rates that i think we probably don't have to worry about the economy 235u8ing apart. by the way, if the economy fell apart, like, a lot of stock wos have to go a lot lower. but on my view, the fed doesn't want to restimulate the economy. they don't want to restimulate inflation but have a more even keel, and many stocks are not priced for that even keel. like, there are still stocks underpriced for it and other stocks that are quite over priced for it.
bill dudley out saying, hey, got to cut immediately. starting to see a rollover, close to the rule, in unemployment. so there are risks, but what we've seen in that this economy is so sensitive to interest rates i think the moment the fed cuts, or the -- as the market starts to digest fed cuts brings rates down before the fed actually does, an accumulative effect. spending, housing you right at rates came down in november immediately start to spike up from about 2% to 5% on three-months...
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Jul 24, 2024
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bill dudley of the new york federal reserve, this morning put out a note urging and this guys a pretty much a permahawk, urging the fed cut rates next week. >> yeah, so liz, not so fast. liz: what does he know that we don't? maybe that's what's at work here for the broader sell-off. >> i'm not sure, liz. i think that again, we don't have a recession, the economies into better balance. we think they go in september to 100% priced in almost but they go in september but i just don't think they need to be in a rush. i don't think there's a fire when it comes to the labor market or the inflation numbers falling quickly, that would allow them to move very quickly, so we are on the careful and methodical size because jerome powell doesn't want to be arthur burns who let the food off inflation too early and jerome powell doesn't want that. atlanta fed gdp now is above 2.5%. trend growth in this country is two so i'm not really sure what he's looking at but we're in the camp of careful and methodic. liz: rotating where right now, scott? >> it just started to rotate to the small caps to the bios
bill dudley of the new york federal reserve, this morning put out a note urging and this guys a pretty much a permahawk, urging the fed cut rates next week. >> yeah, so liz, not so fast. liz: what does he know that we don't? maybe that's what's at work here for the broader sell-off. >> i'm not sure, liz. i think that again, we don't have a recession, the economies into better balance. we think they go in september to 100% priced in almost but they go in september but i just don't...
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Jul 25, 2024
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we may be seeing this, and bill dudley who's out there saying the fed's behind the curve. we have this debate every night. there certainly has been an extended period of resilience. it does appear from this earnings season based upon real and current trends that reach seen from companies that it's happening faster. i don't think you need to chase any of these names here, and i think even deckers is going to trickle lower again. >> i mean, to your point in terms of putting together all the data points, the consumer's also slowing down their spending and experiences. at one point it was a tradeoff, right, between stuff and experiences, and now it's just i'm not going to buy as much period across the board. >> that was the thing during covid, it went from goods and after covid it went to services. we're seeing a little bit of a hangover. we saw that in goods a year, year and a half ago. royal caribbean, you know, they gave slightly disappointing earnings, the parks business, we heard it from comcast. i think we're probably going to hear it are from disney. it just kind of spe
we may be seeing this, and bill dudley who's out there saying the fed's behind the curve. we have this debate every night. there certainly has been an extended period of resilience. it does appear from this earnings season based upon real and current trends that reach seen from companies that it's happening faster. i don't think you need to chase any of these names here, and i think even deckers is going to trickle lower again. >> i mean, to your point in terms of putting together all the...
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Jul 29, 2024
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dudley's hair was on fire monday when he said the fed has to cut and cut right now.m rule and realized the unenemployment rate will shoot higher but the fed's in a box but they placed themselves there, so i have very little sympathy. charles: so another problem though, right, let's face it, another problem for the fed and every american, all the deficit spending the national debt by the way officially crossed 35 trillion last night, we did it again, folks. you wet a piece there is a simple and elegant fix that can serve as a bridge to the time maybe we start tightening our belt. walk us through that. simple and elegant. i want to hear it. >> i know. it sounds almost too good to be true and i'm the last one to buy into those kind of ideas, but yeah, we are, the problem that i have been really concerned about for a long time, and you and i talked about previously is how are we going to finance these deficits? obviously we need to at some point get serious about reining in spending and reducing these deficits. right now neither political party seems to have any interest
dudley's hair was on fire monday when he said the fed has to cut and cut right now.m rule and realized the unenemployment rate will shoot higher but the fed's in a box but they placed themselves there, so i have very little sympathy. charles: so another problem though, right, let's face it, another problem for the fed and every american, all the deficit spending the national debt by the way officially crossed 35 trillion last night, we did it again, folks. you wet a piece there is a simple and...
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why not july, when we're hearing, you know, increasingly, bill dudley, for instance, last week saying ready right now for a cut. >> well, we might be ready, but the fed's not ready, is our opinion. and so, i think they're still processing the data. and you still have some conflicting pieces out there. the consumer, in particular, is really sitting in a pretty bifurcated spot. you see places like mcdonald's and others who are catering to, again, that lower end consumer, who are seeing some real softening, and that consumer is getting squeezed hard. the top end of then consumer market, though, is just the xa exact opposite. high end restaurants, high end travel, leisure, resorts, spending continues, really kind of unchecked. and so, i think trying to balance out the two camps is tricky right now. >> erik, infrastructure and domestic manufacturing make sense regardless of who wins in november. but private credit sticks out to me a little bit here. why are you optimistic about that sector? >> well, i think you're still continuing to see a real need for borrowing, across the -- you know, t
why not july, when we're hearing, you know, increasingly, bill dudley, for instance, last week saying ready right now for a cut. >> well, we might be ready, but the fed's not ready, is our opinion. and so, i think they're still processing the data. and you still have some conflicting pieces out there. the consumer, in particular, is really sitting in a pretty bifurcated spot. you see places like mcdonald's and others who are catering to, again, that lower end consumer, who are seeing some...
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charles: it is interesting, bill dudley he is one of them., he did reference claudia sahm we had on in the prior segment. i don't know if you saw her and mike kantrowitz. they said they should be already cutting rates. a former chicago fed economic advisor, current head of goldman rewrote a note saying why wait? what is the answer to that question to the fed, why are they waiting? >> charles, they should not be waiting. they should be, on tuesday and wednesday of next week, fed staffers right now should be working furiously to show and demonstrate to the fed they are behind. true-flation tru, hit a post-pandemic new low. that means they're actually below the fed's 2% target, charles. they will have all of these data in hand that say you know what? there is no reason to wait until september the 18th. if we do, it is going to magnify, amplify the size of the policy error. charles: right, right. again, we would know that in september, with a 50 basis point cut. less than a minute to go. i had to jump in here. inflation is already taking a toll o
charles: it is interesting, bill dudley he is one of them., he did reference claudia sahm we had on in the prior segment. i don't know if you saw her and mike kantrowitz. they said they should be already cutting rates. a former chicago fed economic advisor, current head of goldman rewrote a note saying why wait? what is the answer to that question to the fed, why are they waiting? >> charles, they should not be waiting. they should be, on tuesday and wednesday of next week, fed staffers...
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Jul 31, 2024
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bill dudley wrote an op ed in bloomberg earlier this month that you probably saw in which he said, quote, it may already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, doddeling now unnecessarily increase the risk. is he wrong? >> so this is the judgment that we have to make and we are well aware of the judgment. as i've said, we have to weigh the risk of going too soon against the risk of going too late. we go too soon we can, you know -- we had a lot of advice to go ahead and cut after the seven good months of last year. we said we needed to do more and we saw higher inflation and we've seen one quarter of good inflation and the labor market move quite a bit. as i mentioned, i don't think it needs to cool off anymore for us to get the inflation results and not all inflation is, of course, and it's a difficult judgment to make and what you see is the judgment of the committee is that time is drawing near and that time could be in september if the data support that. >> and have your chances of a hard landing increased? >> so i -- i don't know whether they've increased. i think the
bill dudley wrote an op ed in bloomberg earlier this month that you probably saw in which he said, quote, it may already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, doddeling now unnecessarily increase the risk. is he wrong? >> so this is the judgment that we have to make and we are well aware of the judgment. as i've said, we have to weigh the risk of going too soon against the risk of going too late. we go too soon we can, you know -- we had a lot of advice to go ahead and cut...
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former new york fed president bill dudley wrote an op-ed earlier this month which you probably saw in which he said, quote, it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates. dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk. is he wrong? >> so this is the judgment that we have to make, and we're well aware of the judgment. we're, you know, we're, as aye said, we have the -- i've said is, we have to weigh the riskings of going too soon against the risks of going too late. if we go too soon, you know, we had a lot of advice to go ahead and cut off the -- after the seven good months of last year. we didn't. we said we needed to see more, then we saw hayer inflation. we've -- saw higher inflags. as i mentioned, i don't think it needs to to, you know, cool off any more for us to get the inflation results that are related to the labor market. not all a inflation is, of course. so i think it's a difficult judgment to make, and what you see the is the judgment of the committee. that time is drawing near. that time could be in september. if, you know, if the data support that.
former new york fed president bill dudley wrote an op-ed earlier this month which you probably saw in which he said, quote, it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates. dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk. is he wrong? >> so this is the judgment that we have to make, and we're well aware of the judgment. we're, you know, we're, as aye said, we have the -- i've said is, we have to weigh the riskings of going too soon against the risks of going too late....
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Jul 24, 2024
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the fed is in focus ahead of next week, and bill dudley, the former new york fed president publishingerg this morning saying i changed my mind. the fed needs to cut rates now. he's been a proponent for higher for longer, make sure we can take care of inflation but here's what he's saying now, he's pointing out the weakness in the labor arket. deteriorating labor markets have a self-reinforcing feedback loop when jobs are harder to find, households trim spending, the economy weakens and businesses reduce investment which leads to layoffs and further spending cuts. although it might already be too late to fend off recession by cutting rates dawdleingly now unnecessarily increases the risk. he's saying they should cut rates now. i would bet fed members pay attention to him. he was their colleague, influential. i don't expect them to cut next week it just gives powell more room to sound moredovish and telegraph the next move. i it's becoming consensus. >> is jack hole next? >> yes. the speech is coming at an interesting point although his style is meeting because he does a press conferenc
the fed is in focus ahead of next week, and bill dudley, the former new york fed president publishingerg this morning saying i changed my mind. the fed needs to cut rates now. he's been a proponent for higher for longer, make sure we can take care of inflation but here's what he's saying now, he's pointing out the weakness in the labor arket. deteriorating labor markets have a self-reinforcing feedback loop when jobs are harder to find, households trim spending, the economy weakens and...
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Jul 25, 2024
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former new york federal reserve bank president bill dudley's editorial yesterday was the catalog fori've changed my mind about the economy he called for the fed to cut rates next week. the three month unemployment average was rising. as volatility continues to increase, goldman sachs noted yesterday that inflection date, the date when the s&p starts seeing more down days than up days is july 17 with the peak in september and not really flipping positive until the very end of october. finally, this is very interesting. historically most presidents don't have a big impact on the stock market however this election may be different. goldman sachs had a note out yesterday noting the s&p 500 has been super correlated to trump win odds lately noting that recent change in election probabilities with kamala harris now the democratic nominee may be causing some recalibration in portfolios. cfra's investment strategist sam stovall seems to agree. the certainty of the trump trade appears to be fading he wrote in a note to clients last week. kamala harris, pardon me for the miss pronunciation the
former new york federal reserve bank president bill dudley's editorial yesterday was the catalog fori've changed my mind about the economy he called for the fed to cut rates next week. the three month unemployment average was rising. as volatility continues to increase, goldman sachs noted yesterday that inflection date, the date when the s&p starts seeing more down days than up days is july 17 with the peak in september and not really flipping positive until the very end of october....