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May 4, 2024
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ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of— or so. ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of the _ or so. ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of the count i or so. ok, john curtice, thank you l very much. one of the count coming in, greenwich and lewisham and london. �* ., ., ., . london. i'm here to announce the results of — london. i'm here to announce the results of the _ london. i'm here to announce the results of the constituency - london. i'm here to announce the | results of the constituency election for greenwich and lewisham in this london _ for greenwich and lewisham in this london assembly poll 2024. i hereby -ive london assembly poll 2024. i hereby give notice _ london assembly poll 2024. i hereby give notice is constituency returning officer at the election of the constituency member of the land on the _ the constituency member of the land on the subway for greenwich and lewisham — on the subway for greenwich and lewisham held in the 2nd of may 2024. _ lewisham held in the 2nd of may 2024, that the number of votes recorded — 2024, that the n
ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of— or so. ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of the _ or so. ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of the count i or so. ok, john curtice, thank you l very much. one of the count coming in, greenwich and lewisham and london. �* ., ., ., . london. i'm here to announce the results of — london. i'm here to announce the results of the _ london. i'm here to announce the results of the constituency - london. i'm here to announce the |...
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May 2, 2024
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—— john curtice told _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me you _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me you won't - differently this time? —— john i curtice told me you won't very differently this time? —— john - curtice told me you won't very good as leader— curtice told me you won't very good as leader at — curtice told me you won't very good as leader at that _ curtice told me you won't very good as leader at that time. _ curtice told me you won't very good as leader at that time.— as leader at that time. maybe i should sent — as leader at that time. maybe i should sent john _ as leader at that time. maybe i should sent john curtice - as leader at that time. maybe i should sent john curtice a - as leader at that time. maybe i - should sent john curtice a christmas should sentjohn curtice a christmas card and _ should sentjohn curtice a christmas card and try— should sentjohn curtice a christmas card and try to improve things a bit. someone who is here today and will know— bit. som
—— john curtice told _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me you _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me you won't - differently this time? —— john i curtice told me you won't very differently this time? —— john - curtice told me you won't very good as leader— curtice told me you won't very good as leader at — curtice told me you won't very good as leader at that _ curtice told me you won't very good...
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May 4, 2024
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curtice, thank ou ve quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much — quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much indeed. _ quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much indeed. professor| quite enough. john curtice, thank. you very much indeed. professor sir john curtice with the latest in we're still waiting the west midlands result. at school there right now. let's cross to my colleague rajini vaidyanathan, who is at the count in birmingham. we are waiting for that result. what we have heard in the last few minutes here in birmingham is that there is good to be a bundle check, they are doing that right now. they are doing that in five of the seven areas that are counting to make of this west midlands mayoral results. we have already had results from solihull and wolverhampton, but we are now getting these bundle checks, which means they are going through now and some of the tables and just checking the ballots. but it could mean, there was an issue, an official tells me, we could then as john was saying go into a recount but we're definitely not that stage yet. i'm told from th
curtice, thank ou ve quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much — quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much indeed. _ quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much indeed. professor| quite enough. john curtice, thank. you very much indeed. professor sir john curtice with the latest in we're still waiting the west midlands result. at school there right now. let's cross to my colleague rajini vaidyanathan, who is at the count in birmingham. we are waiting for that result. what we...
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curtice points out in the telegraph today. in those areas where reform fielded a candidate, the conservative vote fell more quickly than harry kanein fell more quickly than harry kane in the penalty box. but whilst things look terminal for rishi sunak , let me issue a word rishi sunak, let me issue a word of caution. turnout was low, which means it's all to play for among the don't knows. in fact,
curtice points out in the telegraph today. in those areas where reform fielded a candidate, the conservative vote fell more quickly than harry kanein fell more quickly than harry kane in the penalty box. but whilst things look terminal for rishi sunak , let me issue a word rishi sunak, let me issue a word of caution. turnout was low, which means it's all to play for among the don't knows. in fact,
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May 4, 2024
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john curtice, please don't _ done so at labour's expense. john curtice, please don't go anywhere. i'm sure we will come back to you. now it's time for a look at today's sport with 0lly foster. thank you very much indeed. some breaking football news in the last 24—hour is. real madrid have won the spanish league title with four games left to play. that's after they beat cadiz 3—0 and barcelona lost away at girona. all real�*s goals came in the second half. brahim diaz scored their first and jude bellingham added a second just three minutes after coming off the bench and joselu scored their third. that is a 36th league title for real. barcelona were beating girona 2—1 midway through the second half as they looked to keep the title race going for at least another week, but lost 4—2 to their fellow catalans. girona move above barca into second and they have secured a place in the champion league next season, which will be the first time they have played european football. it's as you were at the top of the english premier league, with both arsenal and manchester city winning
john curtice, please don't _ done so at labour's expense. john curtice, please don't go anywhere. i'm sure we will come back to you. now it's time for a look at today's sport with 0lly foster. thank you very much indeed. some breaking football news in the last 24—hour is. real madrid have won the spanish league title with four games left to play. that's after they beat cadiz 3—0 and barcelona lost away at girona. all real�*s goals came in the second half. brahim diaz scored their first...
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May 4, 2024
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professor john curtice is with us. what you make of that?— john curtice is with us. what you make of that? ., , , ., make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known as _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well- known as steve _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known as steve rotheram. | as well—known as steve rotheram. this is somebody who has not come via the house of commons, but again, we see a swing to labour, here of the order of 4% from conservative to labour. it�*s a bit lower than liverpool. but again, even in these mayoral contests, somewhat more personality —based than is otherwise the case. we are seeing swings to labour. we indeed saw a swing even in the tees valley. so here, even though the conservatives will not want us to focus on these contests, the message coming out at the ballot box is unsurprisingly that the conservative party is less popular thanit conservative party is less popular than it was three years ago when of course they were still ahead in the opinion polls. a ve
professor john curtice is with us. what you make of that?— john curtice is with us. what you make of that? ., , , ., make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known as _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well- known as steve _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known as steve rotheram. | as well—known as steve rotheram. this is somebody who has not come via the house of commons, but again, we see a swing to labour, here of...
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May 3, 2024
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i don't know if you heard john curtice, waiting l you heard john curtice, waiting lists are higher than when rishi sunak promised to bring them down in january 2023. and when it comes to the economy, all people have to do is, liz truss. it the economy, all people have to do is. liz truss— is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- sobering - is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- sobering and| is, liz truss. it is soeb serring i and of course -- sobering and he is, liz truss. it is soeb serring - and of course -- sobering and he has and of course —— sobering and he has and of course —— sobering and he has a great deal to do as a prime minister. but rushy is an expert on the economy and i look forward to keir starmer raising the economy, because rishi can always knock it out of the park. waiting lists imply real suffering. we did come through covid and both the disease and the lockdown and restrictions had health consequences. i’m lockdown and restriction
i don't know if you heard john curtice, waiting l you heard john curtice, waiting lists are higher than when rishi sunak promised to bring them down in january 2023. and when it comes to the economy, all people have to do is, liz truss. it the economy, all people have to do is. liz truss— is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- sobering - is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of...
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May 4, 2024
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the bbc�*s polling expert john curtice has said he expects labour's sadiq khan to win the london mayoral election by around ten percentage points. this would give him a record third term as the mayor of london. there is speculation about a declaration from city hall in london taking place some time this afternoon. we are still awaiting results in greater manchester and the west midlands, where the conservatives will be hoping andy street can cling on. and we are also expecting results from a the remaining handful of councils yet to declare, as well as police and crime commissioners. let's get some analysis on the results that have come through overnight. our political correspondent, nick eardley, is in the newsroom. it's been a busy few hours. where are we now?— it's been a busy few hours. where are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon _ are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon is _ are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon is from - are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon is from the - far this afternoon is from the capital, london, wher
the bbc�*s polling expert john curtice has said he expects labour's sadiq khan to win the london mayoral election by around ten percentage points. this would give him a record third term as the mayor of london. there is speculation about a declaration from city hall in london taking place some time this afternoon. we are still awaiting results in greater manchester and the west midlands, where the conservatives will be hoping andy street can cling on. and we are also expecting results from a...
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May 23, 2024
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sir john curtice, forjoining us. sirjohn curtice, polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. always a delight now let's go to stormont now. speak to gb news. northern ireland reporter dougie beattie dougie, always a delight to have you on the show. we were just talking there about that snap election in 2017 and of course the dup became absolutely pivotal. that confidence and supply to the conservative party cost them £1 billion, but it kept them in power. dougie what's the political landscape now? on, on on your side of the sea there in northern ireland? >> well, it's totally fascinating , >> well, it's totally fascinating, martin. i mean, we have 18 seats in northern ireland. eight of those are held by the dup, seven by sinn fein, but they are an abstentionist party. they don't take those seats, then we have two by the sdlp and one by the alliance party. but out of those 18 seats, six of them are very, very slim majorities, including, gavin robinson, the now leader of the dup seat in
sir john curtice, forjoining us. sirjohn curtice, polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. always a delight now let's go to stormont now. speak to gb news. northern ireland reporter dougie beattie dougie, always a delight to have you on the show. we were just talking there about that snap election in 2017 and of course the dup became absolutely pivotal. that confidence and supply to the conservative party cost them £1 billion, but it kept them in power. dougie...
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May 4, 2024
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so john to you as soon as we have news on that. sojohn curtice is with us. just some of the results so far. we have had a number of london figures come in, and we are hearing from our colleagues there that birmingham are still quite tight. let’s colleagues there that birmingham are still quite tight-— still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. _ still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you _ still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you have - still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you have the i west midlands. you have the discussion there about the result for the solihull district within the west midlands authority that the result they are for the mayoral race has no already been published. we have calculated the swing that this means from 2021. the answer is 5% from conservative to labour. the swing that labour need across the west midlands as a whole to unseat andy street is 4.5%. in other words, solihull does underline the claim that this election looks too close to call. certainly, andy street needs to be
so john to you as soon as we have news on that. sojohn curtice is with us. just some of the results so far. we have had a number of london figures come in, and we are hearing from our colleagues there that birmingham are still quite tight. let’s colleagues there that birmingham are still quite tight-— still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. _ still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you _ still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you have - still quite...
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May 23, 2024
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0ur polling guru john curtice has been taking a look. as things stand at the moment, on average in the polls, and there are differences between the pollsters, but on average, they put the conservatives 21 points behind at the moment. even the best of them put them at least around 16 points behind. and however you look at it, that is an outcome that would result in labour being elected with an overall majority. so the challenge facing rishi sunak is to try to overturn that very, very substantial labour lead. and frankly no government, apart from john major in 1997, no prime minister has called an election so far behind. so he's going to have to beat the psephological records if indeed he's going to win this election. the economy and the cost of living are shaping up to be key election issues — so what do small business owners make of the government and opposition's plans? 0ur correspondent ben boulos has been speaking to traders at a wholesale market in birmingham. there are plenty of political analogies to be drawn here at birmingham w
0ur polling guru john curtice has been taking a look. as things stand at the moment, on average in the polls, and there are differences between the pollsters, but on average, they put the conservatives 21 points behind at the moment. even the best of them put them at least around 16 points behind. and however you look at it, that is an outcome that would result in labour being elected with an overall majority. so the challenge facing rishi sunak is to try to overturn that very, very substantial...
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May 2, 2024
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john curtice on the _ number of returns has cratered. curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? let curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood?— curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? ., ,, ., likelihood? let me make two gentle oints. likelihood? let me make two gentle points- one. — likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there is _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there is no - points. one, that there is no evidence in the polls that have been conducted in the last seven days that the passage of the rwanda bill has any impact of the standing of the parties, but what is clear if you look over the longer time piece, since last november when the government started to focus on rwanda and asylum seeker, what we have seen is a rise in support for reform. to be honest i'm not surprised, one thing i have found is people's attitudes to immigration, of those people who voted cons
john curtice on the _ number of returns has cratered. curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? let curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood?— curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? ., ,, ., likelihood? let me make two gentle oints. likelihood? let me make two gentle points- one. — likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there is _ likelihood?...
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sir john curtice, the legendary pollster. he's predicting an electoral wipe—out for the conservatives. remember the reform party only stood in 10 to 15% of seats last night. what could that look like in a general election? we'll have a full analysis on that next. i'm martin daubney on gb news. britain's news channel. but first, it's time for your weather. so . weather. so. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on . gb news. >> hello, time for your latest weather update from the met office here on gb news. a bit of a mish mash again today. lots of places grey with some heavy rain around, but it's a brighter day in the south and it's another mostly fine day across northern scotland. in between though, low pressure and weather fronts are providing a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain. some heavy downpours across parts of lincolnshire and yorkshire extending into the north midlands. the odd rumble of thunder maybe further north as well parts of northwest england, southwest scotland, but for much of northern
sir john curtice, the legendary pollster. he's predicting an electoral wipe—out for the conservatives. remember the reform party only stood in 10 to 15% of seats last night. what could that look like in a general election? we'll have a full analysis on that next. i'm martin daubney on gb news. britain's news channel. but first, it's time for your weather. so . weather. so. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on . gb news. >> hello, time for your latest...
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May 25, 2024
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still to come to john curtice. polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde , will university of strathclyde, will be in the political hot seat to shine a light on the latest polling . but shine a light on the latest polling. but coming up shine a light on the latest polling . but coming up next, polling. but coming up next, we'll be going live to tel aviv to hear from uri geller and his thoughts on how the uk election will impact israel. don't good afternoon. it's just coming up to 37 minutes after 3:00. welcome. if you've just tuned in. where have you been? this is gb news. we're on tv, online and on digital radio. i'm nana akua. and it's time now to get the latest from israel. now, as earlier this month , people in earlier this month, people in england and wales voted in local and mayoral elections . as and mayoral elections. as a first glance, at first glance, labour appeared to dominate , labour appeared to dominate, with the conservatives losing over half their races. however desp
still to come to john curtice. polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde , will university of strathclyde, will be in the political hot seat to shine a light on the latest polling . but shine a light on the latest polling. but coming up shine a light on the latest polling . but coming up next, polling. but coming up next, we'll be going live to tel aviv to hear from uri geller and his thoughts on how the uk election will impact israel. don't good afternoon. it's...
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election expert sir john curtice says the final outcome could be the tories worst performance for 40 years, celebrating a mayoral victory in the east midlands, the labour leader said the tories time is up. >> i think the message here is very, very clear and i think across the east midlands there's been a sending of that message to the government, which is we're fed up with your division, with your chaos, with your failure 14 years and i'm sorry, i don't care which political party you support if you leave your country in a worse state than when you found it 14 years later, you do not deserve to be in government for a moment longer . longer. >> well, andrew griffith is minister for science, innovation and technology. he told us the pubuc and technology. he told us the public doesn't want labour's policies. >> look, it's a difficult set of results. i think that was what was expected going in. there's going to be a very, very simple choice at the next election. who walks through number 10 downing street? is it rishi sunak with his plan? that's starting to work now, or is it keir with wit
election expert sir john curtice says the final outcome could be the tories worst performance for 40 years, celebrating a mayoral victory in the east midlands, the labour leader said the tories time is up. >> i think the message here is very, very clear and i think across the east midlands there's been a sending of that message to the government, which is we're fed up with your division, with your chaos, with your failure 14 years and i'm sorry, i don't care which political party you...
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election experts sir john curtice says the final outcome could be the tories worst performance for 40 years. ellie reevesis performance for 40 years. ellie reeves is labour's deputy national campaign coordinator. she's told us it's a good start but more still needs to be done . but more still needs to be done. >> look, i think we're pleased but not complacent. there are a large number of battleground seats that we need to win at the general election to form a government. places like bolsover and mansfield, south derbyshire. the seats that we need to win. so that's why winning in the east midlands is a really good indicator of, of the mood and where things are going. >> well. andrew griffiths . >> well. andrew griffiths. is minister for science, innovation and technology. he told us the pubuc and technology. he told us the public don't really want labour's policies. >> look it's a difficult set of results. i think that was what was expected going in. there's going to be a very, very simple choice at the next election. who walks through number 10 downing street? is it rishi sunak with h
election experts sir john curtice says the final outcome could be the tories worst performance for 40 years. ellie reevesis performance for 40 years. ellie reeves is labour's deputy national campaign coordinator. she's told us it's a good start but more still needs to be done . but more still needs to be done. >> look, i think we're pleased but not complacent. there are a large number of battleground seats that we need to win at the general election to form a government. places like...
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May 3, 2024
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we will cross now to sir john curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. great to see. what are the numbers telling you?— telling you? there are two principal messares telling you? there are two principal messages coming _ telling you? there are two principal messages coming out _ telling you? there are two principal messages coming out of _ telling you? there are two principal messages coming out of the - telling you? there are two principal messages coming out of the local. messages coming out of the local election results, together with the parliamentary by—election in blackpool. the first is that so far as the gap between conservatives and labour is concerned, nothing very much seems to have changed. in one sense, it sounds like a surprising statement because the swing from conservative to labour in blackpool south, just over 26%, the third biggest swing in post—war electoral history. trouble is, swings of that kind of size have now become rather commonplace in the last year, we have had five by—elections in which the swing from conservative to
we will cross now to sir john curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. great to see. what are the numbers telling you?— telling you? there are two principal messares telling you? there are two principal messages coming _ telling you? there are two principal messages coming out _ telling you? there are two principal messages coming out of _ telling you? there are two principal messages coming out of the - telling you? there are two principal messages coming out of the...
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May 3, 2024
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to john - curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty— curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities _ curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities are _ curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities are mighty - with mighty majorities are mighty nervous — with mighty ma'orities are mighty nervous. ~ ., , ., ., ., ., nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? — nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir _ nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir keir _ nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir keir starmer - nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir keir starmer has i about gaza? sir keir starmer has called for a ceasefire as long as hamas and israel both take part together. despite doing that, in february, we saw the losses over the last 2a hours. the february, we saw the losses over the last 24 hem-— last 24 hours. the difficulty is, he can't do anything _ last 24 hours. the difficulty is, he can't do anything short _ iast 24 hours. the difficulty is, he can't do anything short of- las
to john - curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty— curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities _ curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities are _ curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities are mighty - with mighty majorities are mighty nervous — with mighty ma'orities are mighty nervous. ~ ., , ., ., ., ., nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? — nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir _ nervous. what is...
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May 4, 2024
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now, there is reaction from sir keir starmer, of course, and there are also analysis from sir john curtice as well as the big takeaways from my colleague rajini vaidyanathan and interviews with andy street and richard parker. we will continue with analysis on the website so do go and check that life page. in brazil's southernmost state of rio grandee do sool, the death toll from floods and mudslides, triggered by days of torrential downpours, has now risen to 60. here — rescuers are breaking through the roof of a house to rescue a baby and its mother — stranded in the floodwaters. 67 people are still missing. authorities are warning that rising water levels is putting dams under strain and threatening the metropolis of porto allegre — as heavy rainfall continues to batter the region. rescuers in boats and planes have been searching the ruins of collapsed homes, bridges and roads for survivors. and the army has been drafted in to clear debris, distribute aid and set up shelters. some residents have been able to return to their homes but found little left. translation: i need a lot of
now, there is reaction from sir keir starmer, of course, and there are also analysis from sir john curtice as well as the big takeaways from my colleague rajini vaidyanathan and interviews with andy street and richard parker. we will continue with analysis on the website so do go and check that life page. in brazil's southernmost state of rio grandee do sool, the death toll from floods and mudslides, triggered by days of torrential downpours, has now risen to 60. here — rescuers are breaking...
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May 25, 2024
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john curtice, sa that. �* . ., ., say that. at that hour of the morning- — say that. at that hour of the morning- i _ say that. at that hour of the morning. i am _ say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going - say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going to - say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going to be i say that. at that hour of the i morning. i am going to be very aggressive _ morning. i am going to be very aggressive and _ morning. i am going to be very aggressive and fact _ morning. i am going to be very aggressive and fact checking i morning. i am going to be very i aggressive and fact checking and i am going to say no, you have never had a martini. i want a big am going to say no, you have never had a martini. iwanta big red button. 0ne reviewer suggested that if somebody is not telling the truth we should have a big red button and it should flash on the screen if they are not telling the truth. 0r like on graham norton where they have the chair that goes backwards. anyway, all ideas gratefully re
john curtice, sa that. �* . ., ., say that. at that hour of the morning- — say that. at that hour of the morning- i _ say that. at that hour of the morning. i am _ say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going - say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going to - say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going to be i say that. at that hour of the i morning. i am going to be very aggressive _ morning. i am going to be very aggressive and _ morning. i am going to be very aggressive...
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May 3, 2024
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let's go straight to john curtice. looking at the numbers, the implications of that, what is the blackpool south result say to you? i what is the blackpool south result say to you?— what is the blackpool south result say to you? i must admit, i have a certain amount _ say to you? i must admit, i have a certain amount of _ say to you? i must admit, i have a certain amount of sympathy - say to you? i must admit, i have a certain amount of sympathy for i certain amount of sympathy for conservative spokespeople who have to turn up at 4:30 in the first thing you have to deal with it as a result like this. but to be honest, i don't think that the result can be explained away in the way to suggested. talking about the turnout, yes, it is down on a general election but the fall in turnout in 26 points is rather less in the fall in turnout that occurred in the fall in turnout that occurred in a number of the other by—elections in which the conservatives suffered swings against them of over 20%. the second thing to point out
let's go straight to john curtice. looking at the numbers, the implications of that, what is the blackpool south result say to you? i what is the blackpool south result say to you?— what is the blackpool south result say to you? i must admit, i have a certain amount _ say to you? i must admit, i have a certain amount of _ say to you? i must admit, i have a certain amount of sympathy - say to you? i must admit, i have a certain amount of sympathy for i certain amount of sympathy for...
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May 22, 2024
05/24
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professor sir john curtice. _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you and - decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you and we i decided to focus on. professor sirl john curtice, thank you and we will hear much more from you in the weeks to come. and to other news... the former chief executive of the post office, paula vennells, has been in tears at the public inquiry into its it scandal. she admitted she'd "made mistakes", but denied there'd been a conspiracy to cover up problems with the horizon system. ms vennells, who was chief executive from 2012 to 2019, apologised to sub—postmasters, after hundreds of were wrongly prosecuted when faulty technology made it appear that money was missing from their branches. our business correspondent, emma simpson, was at the inquiry. you said they were disturbing, didn't you, miss vennells? - paula vennells has come to face the music, but she f
professor sir john curtice. _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you and - decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you and we i decided to focus on. professor sirl john curtice, thank you and we will hear much more from you in the weeks to come. and to other news... the former chief executive of the post office, paula vennells, has been in...
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curtice points out in the telegraph today. in those areas where reform fielded a candidate, the conservative vote fell more quickly than harry kanein fell more quickly than harry kane in the penalty box. but whilst things look terminal for rishi sunak , let me issue a word rishi sunak, let me issue a word of caution. turnout was low, which means it's all to play for among the don't knows. in fact, among the don't knows. in fact, a don't know prime minister leading a don't know government made up of don't know mps would be the most popular administration in 100 years. but here's the point governments generally lose by elections , and generally lose by elections, and whilst local elections should be about potholes , street lighting about potholes, street lighting and bins, they often serve as a chance to give the incumbents a bloody nose . now, of course, the bloody nose. now, of course, the tories have suffered more than a bloody nose. but in a few months time, when the country goes to the polls, will support for reform uk fall
curtice points out in the telegraph today. in those areas where reform fielded a candidate, the conservative vote fell more quickly than harry kanein fell more quickly than harry kane in the penalty box. but whilst things look terminal for rishi sunak , let me issue a word rishi sunak, let me issue a word of caution. turnout was low, which means it's all to play for among the don't knows. in fact, among the don't knows. in fact, a don't know prime minister leading a don't know government made...
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May 4, 2024
05/24
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thank you very much, john curtice. all the results are online of course and we are continuing to bring you a tour live. —— bring you eight all life. thank you for being with us so far today. keep watching. live from london, this is bbc news. efforts are intensifying to secure a deal for the release of hostages in gaza and a ceasefire, as talks take place in egypt. a hamas delegation is attending the talks in cairo. labour's sadiq khan has been re—elected for a record third term as london mayor, defeating conservative susan hall. the death toll in brazil reaches 56, after flooding and mudslides. almost 70 people are missing. brazilian authorities are warning that rising water levels are putting dams under strain and threatening the metropolis of porto alegre. and the wait is almost over for the world's largest live music event — with the eurovision song contest kicking off in malmo, sweden, this weekend. sport, and for a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre, here's 0lly foster. many thanks indeed. ipswich
thank you very much, john curtice. all the results are online of course and we are continuing to bring you a tour live. —— bring you eight all life. thank you for being with us so far today. keep watching. live from london, this is bbc news. efforts are intensifying to secure a deal for the release of hostages in gaza and a ceasefire, as talks take place in egypt. a hamas delegation is attending the talks in cairo. labour's sadiq khan has been re—elected for a record third term as london...
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now, look, the facts of this is, as professor sir john curtice, the oracle of psephology, always says, local elections are actually quite hard to copy and paste on to national ones. so if you look at the results, if it's 10 or 11% by the end of counting, as it will be later today, or maybe tomorrow, then that would mean it's a bigger margin than we saw in last year's local elections. and if you look at where the seats where the wards have shifted, they're very well targeted. so you've got redditch, you've got rushmoor, you've got milton keynes . what you've got milton keynes. what you're seeing is middle class areas , conservative areas and areas, conservative areas and most of all leave voting areas. having the biggest shifts from to tory labour. and so if you actually put that onto a general election, i think you would, you know, it still looks very positive for the labour party. >> i just want to get up some footage earlier on from sadiq khan's victory speech here in london, where he was actually heckled as he was giving his victory speech. we're going to get those images for you .
now, look, the facts of this is, as professor sir john curtice, the oracle of psephology, always says, local elections are actually quite hard to copy and paste on to national ones. so if you look at the results, if it's 10 or 11% by the end of counting, as it will be later today, or maybe tomorrow, then that would mean it's a bigger margin than we saw in last year's local elections. and if you look at where the seats where the wards have shifted, they're very well targeted. so you've got...
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May 25, 2024
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professor sir john curtice, the oracle of polling , curtice, the oracle of polling, gives a 99% chance that keir starmer will be prime minister. this is the biggest lead that a party has had for so long since world war two. the fact is that, for example, you could take theresa may's election where she was about 20 points ahead of corbyn and clearly that collapsed. but what you've seen here is that labour's poll lead has basically not shifted an inch since liz truss was prime minister and it's very reliable. and if you look at the local elections , those numbers didn't elections, those numbers didn't include scotland, for example, which has actually seeing a pretty rapid shift towards the labour party and so i actually think that you're doing a disservice to the tories because the sensible thing for tories to do would be to go to those seats with 15,000 majorities that maybe they could save. if you're trying to save seats that were won last time, you've not got a hopein won last time, you've not got a hope in hell. >> i don't think you listen to what i said. i said the next general elec
professor sir john curtice, the oracle of polling , curtice, the oracle of polling, gives a 99% chance that keir starmer will be prime minister. this is the biggest lead that a party has had for so long since world war two. the fact is that, for example, you could take theresa may's election where she was about 20 points ahead of corbyn and clearly that collapsed. but what you've seen here is that labour's poll lead has basically not shifted an inch since liz truss was prime minister and it's...
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May 26, 2024
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revered pollsters professor sir john curtice and lord robert hayward have both noted that a party has never before come from so far behind in the polls to win a general election . to consider these election. to consider these matters, i have with me, the former labour adviser stella kidu. i'm sorry i always get that messed up for me, santiaguito santiaguito, political commentator matthew stadlen and former advisor in chief of staff to nadhim zahawi james pryce. love to see you all here and thank you, stella, for being so tolerant , matt, let's being so tolerant, matt, let's start with farage, nigel farage has been with camilla this morning and it does appear, does it not, that he would have been a candidate had the election been later in the year, and this could be quite significant, could be quite significant, could it not. yeah. >> and i was chatting to nigel before coming on air. >> we know each other a little bit. i disagree with almost all of his politics, but we get on perfectly well. man to man. and it seems to me that he was preparing a very serious campaign, essentially to ta
revered pollsters professor sir john curtice and lord robert hayward have both noted that a party has never before come from so far behind in the polls to win a general election . to consider these election. to consider these matters, i have with me, the former labour adviser stella kidu. i'm sorry i always get that messed up for me, santiaguito santiaguito, political commentator matthew stadlen and former advisor in chief of staff to nadhim zahawi james pryce. love to see you all here and...
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i mean, john curtice, who's the doyen of electoral experts, has come out this morning and rubbished their analysis at every local election. the labour party does worse than it does at a general election. their analysis assumes that the lib dems, the greens and the independent are going to take 35% of the vote at the general election, and that labour will only win one seat in scotland, whereas the latest poll out yesterday shows us winning 28 seats. we're not heading for a hung parliament. i'm never complacent , but all the results complacent, but all the results from last week indicate that we're heading for a very substantial labour majority and bill, there's confusion in the tory ranks about where the party should head, where it's at at the moment clearly isn't working. >> a lot of people are saying it's becoming more like the labour party. it doesn't feel very conservative at all. and to that end, miriam cates suella braverman, dame andrea jenkyns said we must become more conservative. we must be more like margaret thatcher. we must move more to the right . what move more to the right.
i mean, john curtice, who's the doyen of electoral experts, has come out this morning and rubbished their analysis at every local election. the labour party does worse than it does at a general election. their analysis assumes that the lib dems, the greens and the independent are going to take 35% of the vote at the general election, and that labour will only win one seat in scotland, whereas the latest poll out yesterday shows us winning 28 seats. we're not heading for a hung parliament. i'm...
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May 11, 2024
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you see, if sir john curtice their kids don't have to. you see, if sirjohn curtice is correct, when he pretty much pretty much always is. and keir, he said that keir is pretty much i think he's 99.9% chance of winning the next general election . and if keir does election. and if keir does become prime minister, unfortunately for him, in anticipation of this prospect before he's even in office, his projected income for this plan is unravelling before his very eyes as parents decide not to go private. in fact, it's already beginning to bite. enrolments to these schools have already fallen by 2.7% and are set to fallen by 2.7% and are set to fall further in september. the independent schools council, who have been collecting data on new starters for over a decade, reported this as the biggest annual drop since it began collecting its data in 2011. now, the body represents almost 1400 private schools, and experts say that the policy could result in as many of them closing down. julie robinson, the chief exec of the isc, said you can see the c
you see, if sir john curtice their kids don't have to. you see, if sirjohn curtice is correct, when he pretty much pretty much always is. and keir, he said that keir is pretty much i think he's 99.9% chance of winning the next general election . and if keir does election. and if keir does become prime minister, unfortunately for him, in anticipation of this prospect before he's even in office, his projected income for this plan is unravelling before his very eyes as parents decide not to go...
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May 3, 2024
05/24
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john curtice, thank you very leaving labour in pole position.“ john curtice, thank you very much. we only have a few moments left. not spectacular in terms of comparing the previous time, and this isjust an estimate, but 34% is pretty much where you work last time and it is not getting to the 1996 pre—tony blair landslide. the not getting to the 1996 pre-tony blair landslide.— not getting to the 1996 pre-tony blair landslide. ~' , . blair landslide. the key thing about that is how labour _ blair landslide. the key thing about that is how labour is _ blair landslide. the key thing about that is how labour is performing . blair landslide. the key thing about that is how labour is performing in| that is how labour is performing in those _ that is how labour is performing in those key— that is how labour is performing in those key bellwether seat that we need to _ those key bellwether seat that we need to win to get a majority in a generat— need to win to get a majority in a general election because in those seats— general election because in those seats we — general elect
john curtice, thank you very leaving labour in pole position.“ john curtice, thank you very much. we only have a few moments left. not spectacular in terms of comparing the previous time, and this isjust an estimate, but 34% is pretty much where you work last time and it is not getting to the 1996 pre—tony blair landslide. the not getting to the 1996 pre-tony blair landslide.— not getting to the 1996 pre-tony blair landslide. ~' , . blair landslide. the key thing about that is how labour...
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May 23, 2024
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because the famous perterer —— poler, john curtice, said it could have a significant shift on the five or 6% reform might take from the tory party, particularly 2019 voters of the tory party is my take. that is a big event to look out for. flat party is my take. that is a big event to look out for. put that in eo - les event to look out for. put that in peoples living — event to look out for. put that in peoples living room. _ event to look out for. put that in peoples living room. you - event to look out for. put that in peoples living room. you talk i event to look out for. put that in i peoples living room. you talk about technical things, percentages and vote swings, but in peoples living rooms and they hear people lay their policies, reform, their positioning is a threat to all parties and we have spoken to the conservatives and labour and the lib dems and the green party this morning, and in various ways they will all be looking out the new guy, effectively.— looking out the new guy, effectivel. , . ., effectively. absolutely. what we have to think— effectively. absolutely.
because the famous perterer —— poler, john curtice, said it could have a significant shift on the five or 6% reform might take from the tory party, particularly 2019 voters of the tory party is my take. that is a big event to look out for. flat party is my take. that is a big event to look out for. put that in eo - les event to look out for. put that in peoples living — event to look out for. put that in peoples living room. _ event to look out for. put that in peoples living room. you -...
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May 24, 2024
05/24
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curtice and all of his colleagues on the exit poll, you may know by around about lunchtime on polling day, but for those of us mere mortals, the exit poll will be announced at ten o�*clock on election night, that will give an indication, and then as the results come in, it will further confirm or indeed deny if the election is going along the lines of the exit poll. so as results started to come in, we should get a few from sunderland and newcastle within 45 minutes to an hour, but the bulk of results will come in from two i am, 3am onwards, and! come in from two i am, 3am onwards, and i imagine that relatively quickly, if it is a large labour victory, we will know. so i would estimate that by 3am on friday the 5th ofjuly, we will know. jae 5th ofjuly, we will know. joe twyman. _ 5th ofjuly, we will know. joe twyman. bill— 5th ofjuly, we will know. joe twyman, bill paxton, harry farley, lots of games to be played amongst those who like these things, but we will find out very soon come in six weeks. thank you very much indeed. hello. the heavy and persistent rain of the last few da
curtice and all of his colleagues on the exit poll, you may know by around about lunchtime on polling day, but for those of us mere mortals, the exit poll will be announced at ten o�*clock on election night, that will give an indication, and then as the results come in, it will further confirm or indeed deny if the election is going along the lines of the exit poll. so as results started to come in, we should get a few from sunderland and newcastle within 45 minutes to an hour, but the bulk...
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May 3, 2024
05/24
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welcome to you, john. a lot more results to come in, but the of these elections, important in their own right, of course, electing local councillors, but they are important because we are up against a general election, which could be a matter of months away. which could be a matter of months awa . ~ which could be a matter of months awa . . ., , .. away. indeed. we need to be careful about that- — away. indeed. we need to be careful about that. the _ away. indeed. we need to be careful about that. the first _ away. indeed. we need to be careful about that. the first thing _ away. indeed. we need to be careful about that. the first thing i - away. indeed. we need to be careful about that. the first thing i would i about that. the first thing i would say is that local elections don't necessarily forecast what will happen in a general election in six months, but they are useful as a barometer, though sometimes a rather complex one, of where we are at present. although it is undoubtedly true that not everybo
welcome to you, john. a lot more results to come in, but the of these elections, important in their own right, of course, electing local councillors, but they are important because we are up against a general election, which could be a matter of months away. which could be a matter of months awa . ~ which could be a matter of months awa . . ., , .. away. indeed. we need to be careful about that- — away. indeed. we need to be careful about that. the _ away. indeed. we need to be careful about...