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Dec 10, 2023
12/23
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shery ahn: the pboc doing more, what will that look like in '24? we saw big injections of liquidity from the medium-term lending facilities instead of cuts. tom: there is a challenge for the pboc. china's economy is already highly leveraged. monetary policy faces a classic problem of pushing on a piece of string. yes, you can cut rates, yes, that will ease a little debt burden on industry, government. already heavily indebted businesses, will they take advantage of interest rates by borrowing more? is that the catalyst for stronger investment, job creation? probably not. in a world where leverage is high, the effectiveness of pboc rate cuts is limited. we think they will deliver 30 basis points of cuts in '24. keeping the dial tilted toward stimulus but micro moves. that places more burden on the central government, which now needs to leverage balance sheets with a fiscal push to offset drag from real estate. haidi: the productivity of debt in china is always to be considered at this point in cycle. even with that push, is the outlook slower growth
shery ahn: the pboc doing more, what will that look like in '24? we saw big injections of liquidity from the medium-term lending facilities instead of cuts. tom: there is a challenge for the pboc. china's economy is already highly leveraged. monetary policy faces a classic problem of pushing on a piece of string. yes, you can cut rates, yes, that will ease a little debt burden on industry, government. already heavily indebted businesses, will they take advantage of interest rates by borrowing...
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Dec 27, 2023
12/23
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china's name to a new governor of the pboc. -- a new deputy governor of the pboc. he has previously served as deputy administrator of the state administration of foreign exchange and director of the pboc financial stability and research bureaus. the u.s. strikes on targets in iraq and fresh attacks by houthi militants in the red sea are increasing risks of wider conflict in the middle east. mediterranean shipping confirming one of its container ships was hit by iran-backed rebels while and route -- en route to pakistan. the pentagon confirming strikes in iraq linked to another iran-backed insurgent group. an attack injured three u.s. personnel. market wise what do we have? a move to the upside. this is what is driving some of these equities. we are looking at these pharmaceutical stocks in particular. taking a look at what is happening there, we have biotech . also at the moment, drug making companies. they are really being bolstered by acquisitions. astrazeneca improving their cancer drug portfolio. a real drive going on for oncology at big pharma companies. life-
china's name to a new governor of the pboc. -- a new deputy governor of the pboc. he has previously served as deputy administrator of the state administration of foreign exchange and director of the pboc financial stability and research bureaus. the u.s. strikes on targets in iraq and fresh attacks by houthi militants in the red sea are increasing risks of wider conflict in the middle east. mediterranean shipping confirming one of its container ships was hit by iran-backed rebels while and...
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Dec 6, 2023
12/23
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i think in terms of the pboc, i think more importantly the pboc seems to put a big emphasis on stabilizings as a very important part of stabilizing the market confidence on china's financial asset. i think the pboc will continue to do so as well. shery: in your view, how exposed are chinese banks to the property slump? and will heavy banking regulation within the country help stem any risk that could be systemic? xiojia: if we look at the banking sector's exposure to the property sector, in particular to property developers, the banking loan to the property sector is relatively low, around 6%. despite all these government pledges to ask commercial banks as well as the financial institutions to further increase funding conditions, the progress seems to be relatively slow as well. so there are certainly more concerns still from chinese banks regarding the potential implications on the nonperforming loans, and also some regulatory restrictions that would put such progress at a relatively slow pace. from the policy perspective, i think the chinese policymakers as well as the financial regulato
i think in terms of the pboc, i think more importantly the pboc seems to put a big emphasis on stabilizings as a very important part of stabilizing the market confidence on china's financial asset. i think the pboc will continue to do so as well. shery: in your view, how exposed are chinese banks to the property slump? and will heavy banking regulation within the country help stem any risk that could be systemic? xiojia: if we look at the banking sector's exposure to the property sector, in...
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Dec 15, 2023
12/23
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for the pbl say -- pboc. that will be super interesting going into 2024.g is one of the final curtain calls of 2023. the pboc, we have the ratesetting today, but certainly there are no expectations. in fact pretty low expectations in terms of how much more monetary easing could actually be put through and be implemented and be effective next year. there is a lot more expectation for industrial policy support, may be fiscal support from china going into 2024. we have already seen some more loosening when it comes to restrictions around mortgage lending and homebuyers, first and second homebuyers being announced for shanghai and beijing as well. that is ahead of the domestic activity data dump later on today. certainly china, both the domestic economy, the challenges there as well as its relationship with competitors, with allies and trading partners, is going to be another wildcard for next year. shery: geopolitical tensions especially between washington and beijing. maybe we have seen a bit of a softening of the stance between them, especially with the tha
for the pbl say -- pboc. that will be super interesting going into 2024.g is one of the final curtain calls of 2023. the pboc, we have the ratesetting today, but certainly there are no expectations. in fact pretty low expectations in terms of how much more monetary easing could actually be put through and be implemented and be effective next year. there is a lot more expectation for industrial policy support, may be fiscal support from china going into 2024. we have already seen some more...
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Dec 15, 2023
12/23
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today they lead on the pboc's 800 billion yuan policy stimulus .rebecca choong wilkins told us, that's the biggest since 2016. they have citi set to close its business as they continue to squeeze better returns out of the firm. as we just discussed, they have the eu failing to agree on aid for ukraine, though they have agreed to open membership talks with kyiv. you can find all of that at da why go on your terminal. let's get a round up on your stories. bloomberg has learned that vivendi is considering options for its $1.3 billion -- 1.3 billion euro stake. it has sunk since they invested almost 10 years ago. the potential sale comes as the communications giant explores a broader overhaul. come party group -- this group agreed to buy the company for $1.2 billion. they add this to their portfolio. it's the largest in the drink makers history. it comes as they face weakening sales from u.s. consumers after a surge in demand during the pandemic. we will speak with the group ceo a are this morning. don't miss that exclusive conversation at 9:30 am, lon
today they lead on the pboc's 800 billion yuan policy stimulus .rebecca choong wilkins told us, that's the biggest since 2016. they have citi set to close its business as they continue to squeeze better returns out of the firm. as we just discussed, they have the eu failing to agree on aid for ukraine, though they have agreed to open membership talks with kyiv. you can find all of that at da why go on your terminal. let's get a round up on your stories. bloomberg has learned that vivendi is...
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Dec 26, 2023
12/23
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this is the third new senior official to be appointed to the pboc since july and the second this month. he previously served as deputy administrator and director of the pboc's financial stability and research bureaus. the european union is reportedly preparing a backup plan with up to 20 billion euros for ukraine. . according to the financial times, the plan sidesteps hungary's objections to funding ukraine by having participating member steps issues -- issue guarantees to the budget. two researchers will be barred from entering the country. earlier this month, the u.s. sanctioned a pair of chinese officials over alleged links to human rights abuses against minorities. let's check in on some of the market movers. understandably, not a great deal of them considering it's a quiet period between christmas day and new year's. . we did see the s&p eke out some gains, up 4/10 of 1% and quiet trading getting near to an all-time high. if we look at the crude price, a bit of strength considering some tension in the middle east we described. the iron ore price has eased off a little bit. tremend
this is the third new senior official to be appointed to the pboc since july and the second this month. he previously served as deputy administrator and director of the pboc's financial stability and research bureaus. the european union is reportedly preparing a backup plan with up to 20 billion euros for ukraine. . according to the financial times, the plan sidesteps hungary's objections to funding ukraine by having participating member steps issues -- issue guarantees to the budget. two...
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Dec 18, 2023
12/23
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does that givehe pboc cover to go dovish?at is happeni with the rest of the world allows china more room if they wanted to lose even monetary policy. the signals from the work conference are very much fiscal policy used to prop up growth and monery policy playing second fiddle. there y one or two intest ra cuts, but don't expeca stimulus. in terms of fiscal stimulus, how much of a boost can we expect in 2024 ove2023? >> i would s it would be a steady dollar additional support when and as needed. that iwhate saw a nth ago with the stimulus. the news todayf that being handed out. most of that is the first half of 2024. i expect we will see private economy consumption will le momentum. the economy is in the slow recovery. probably mid-year, the chinese government will say we need a bit of stimulus while the economy recovers. >> fair enough. what if you pencilled in for growth? >> we see growth falling to around 4%. it will hit 5% on the ofcial target this year. something like tt. >> interesting to square that up against the broa
does that givehe pboc cover to go dovish?at is happeni with the rest of the world allows china more room if they wanted to lose even monetary policy. the signals from the work conference are very much fiscal policy used to prop up growth and monery policy playing second fiddle. there y one or two intest ra cuts, but don't expeca stimulus. in terms of fiscal stimulus, how much of a boost can we expect in 2024 ove2023? >> i would s it would be a steady dollar additional support when and as...
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Dec 11, 2023
12/23
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for the pboc and i am not sure, trying to turn the economy around.orrespondent in hong kong. a tech firm with exposure to china rise to a fi -- rides a fine line, how a chip is navigating these geopolitical tensions surrounding the sector. >> i think my most tech ceos we run very fine lines these days. i think ceos, 10 years ago did not talk to government officials with nearly the frequency that we do today. we comply with all of the export controls whether it is from the u.s. or other parts of the world. china is a big market for us. 20 through 25% of the market today. china looks like the rest of the world in terms of the ecosystems they have built and the software that runs on the processors and the markets that they want to address. the big markets that are going for us in china are unsurprisingly automotive. automotive's and ev's are going very fast in china. it is how to travel to china. >> the u.k., rich and the u.k., it is a majority owned by japanese companies, softbank lifted -- listed in the u.s., what role do you see the u.k. playing for
for the pboc and i am not sure, trying to turn the economy around.orrespondent in hong kong. a tech firm with exposure to china rise to a fi -- rides a fine line, how a chip is navigating these geopolitical tensions surrounding the sector. >> i think my most tech ceos we run very fine lines these days. i think ceos, 10 years ago did not talk to government officials with nearly the frequency that we do today. we comply with all of the export controls whether it is from the u.s. or other...
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Dec 15, 2023
12/23
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dani: we saw a record cash injection for the pboc, $112 billion. that, will that directly translate into metal demands? will that give copper as a whole a big old boost for demand in china? robert: copper is doing fine given that the fed raised rates from 0% to 5%. this will affect 20% of their economy they are worried about, the real estate sector. everybody, when they think of china, they think of the real estate sector. actually, it is a much broader economy than that. the solar, the wind, the new energy -- that is massive. alix: what do you think the demand pull from china is good to be like? robert: i think it is very healthy. physical inventories are incredibly low. the chinese are smiling to find feed. the tolling and refining chart in china is down sharply that means they are very hungry. so the miners are having trouble supplying enough copper concentrate to keep the refining capacity full. that is actually a global issue. dani: morgan stanley things copper is going to go to 9000 by the second quarter. how does that sound to you? is that a
dani: we saw a record cash injection for the pboc, $112 billion. that, will that directly translate into metal demands? will that give copper as a whole a big old boost for demand in china? robert: copper is doing fine given that the fed raised rates from 0% to 5%. this will affect 20% of their economy they are worried about, the real estate sector. everybody, when they think of china, they think of the real estate sector. actually, it is a much broader economy than that. the solar, the wind,...
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Dec 19, 2023
12/23
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we had a fix from the pboc and the chinese currency. strong rally going into last week is the story so far. we have our next union impoundments to things they should be under no pressure to end the last negative interest rate regime who is with us out of tokyo. what is rethinking? >> as you say, the factors acting on the boj may 6 months to a year ago are no longer there, bond yields, a consensus has formed around the fact that while the boj wants to end negative interest rate, it's not going to enter into a cycle of hiking. it's a nuanced discussion, the yen in a tizzy. change is coming, it's further down the line. quick state is quite confusing. the pressure from inflation is still there, unlike most central banks, the boj important inflation. they want to see if the way checks are sustained and can create a virtuous cycle leading to inflation. in terms of how things feel, remember feels like the wrong time to be making a historic change. david: a final thought, we are debating, it's nuanced. negative rates, if they move it is that as
we had a fix from the pboc and the chinese currency. strong rally going into last week is the story so far. we have our next union impoundments to things they should be under no pressure to end the last negative interest rate regime who is with us out of tokyo. what is rethinking? >> as you say, the factors acting on the boj may 6 months to a year ago are no longer there, bond yields, a consensus has formed around the fact that while the boj wants to end negative interest rate, it's not...
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Dec 27, 2023
12/23
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liu is the third new senior official to be appointed to the pboc since july and the second this month alone. he previously served as tippy administrator of the state ministry of foreign affairs. the bond space, checking what we have with china 10 year bonds. yields on 2.57%. currently we are watching chinese 10 year yields down, just a few bits away from a low of -- a 2020 low. we have the former member of the party leadership group and secretary-general of sinochem expelled from the communist party. no reaction to this given he is an ex vice president of sinochem. asian equities are moving to the upside. japan has gone for its lunch break. the hang seng leading the charge higher. >> what is exciting is when you see where this company started. you see what it has become. it has been driven by consistent vision and purpose. francine: it started 56 years ago with a tie. today, ralph lauren is one of the world's most iconic fashion brands, valued at more than $8 billion, with 500 stores around the globe. at the helm is a chief executive who came into the job seven years ago with no fashi
liu is the third new senior official to be appointed to the pboc since july and the second this month alone. he previously served as tippy administrator of the state ministry of foreign affairs. the bond space, checking what we have with china 10 year bonds. yields on 2.57%. currently we are watching chinese 10 year yields down, just a few bits away from a low of -- a 2020 low. we have the former member of the party leadership group and secretary-general of sinochem expelled from the communist...
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Dec 19, 2023
12/23
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did not get a lot of guidance from the pdo say -- pboc yesterday. the market being left to make up its own mind. shery: which is why we have continued to see the japanese yen plunge. and we have seen the dollar fall but the yen was the only one of the g10 that were falling together with the greenback. take a look at how u.s. futures are opening because we are seeing downside pressure after we saw u.s. stocks gaining ground. the dow saw another record high. s&p 500 approaching its all-time high. every sector was in the green. we are really watching that fed commentary pushing back against early rate cut expectations. but it was really about the treasury space. investors are trying to figure out where the fed is going from here. pretty mixed. the two-year yield fell towards that 4.4% level. not a lot of movement. where we saw clear movement was in the oil space. we continued to see that upside in oil -- in asian trading. more companies avoiding the red sea on that violence and the spike of attacks we have seen from houthi rebels. we will continue to w
did not get a lot of guidance from the pdo say -- pboc yesterday. the market being left to make up its own mind. shery: which is why we have continued to see the japanese yen plunge. and we have seen the dollar fall but the yen was the only one of the g10 that were falling together with the greenback. take a look at how u.s. futures are opening because we are seeing downside pressure after we saw u.s. stocks gaining ground. the dow saw another record high. s&p 500 approaching its all-time...
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Dec 20, 2023
12/23
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chinese banks holding their benchmark lending rates after a similar ribeye the pboc bolstered expectations that further monetary easing will take place in 2024. rebecca choong wilkins in hong kong with the details. talk to us about the need for any of these price tools at the moment. >> lpr for one-year held at 3.5%, the five-year lpr also held at 4.2%. very much in line with expectations going into the decision today. that reflects that there isn't a strong need at this moment to use pricing tools or rate tools to try and ease the situation. that's more broadly speaking because we had this big injection of liquidity last week, that 112 billion u.s. dollars into one-year loans, that has staved off the need at this moment. so focus now shifting to 2024. kriti: what does that look like in 2024? we have been talking about three and a half years of policy divergence between the united states and china, the two biggest economies on two different fiscal and monetary paths. what does 2024 look like? >> i don't think we will see dramatic change in china's approach to be frank. the decision today,
chinese banks holding their benchmark lending rates after a similar ribeye the pboc bolstered expectations that further monetary easing will take place in 2024. rebecca choong wilkins in hong kong with the details. talk to us about the need for any of these price tools at the moment. >> lpr for one-year held at 3.5%, the five-year lpr also held at 4.2%. very much in line with expectations going into the decision today. that reflects that there isn't a strong need at this moment to use...
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Dec 6, 2023
12/23
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the hang seng climbing 1% from yesterday, and we are seeing the stronger currency after the pboc came in with a stronger-than-expected fix versus estimates. that gap was the biggest in about two weeks. quite supportive of the offshore. a couple of reasons why markets might be shrugging off that moody's cut. one is that there was a leak. whatever was reflect in the price action was yesterday story. the other might be that this moody's cut is reminding investors how tidy stocks happy, their relative value. let's take a look at the india stock rk. that's the other market i wanted to highlight. yesterday we saw it hitting the $4 trillion market cap for the first time it's been running higher for much of this year, this week after the expectation of policy continuity, there's a lot of optimism about the domestic growth potential, you can see the gap closing with what we've seen on hong kong market cap. lizzie: avril hong and singapore, thanks for that update. let's get back to the bigger picture on fed rate cuts, potentially on the horizon. the downside surprise in october's job openings,
the hang seng climbing 1% from yesterday, and we are seeing the stronger currency after the pboc came in with a stronger-than-expected fix versus estimates. that gap was the biggest in about two weeks. quite supportive of the offshore. a couple of reasons why markets might be shrugging off that moody's cut. one is that there was a leak. whatever was reflect in the price action was yesterday story. the other might be that this moody's cut is reminding investors how tidy stocks happy, their...
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Dec 22, 2023
12/23
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how these big state owned lenders have cut their deposit rates and that is seen as a sign that the pboc could cut lending rates. some see it as soon i january. but then china unveiled online gaming curbs, and things went south. the big drags coming from these gaming companies, tencent falling by as much as 28%, the worst on record. this curb coming through from china is to curb the excessive spending, as well as rewards for on what -- for online gaming. that will affect the number of active users as well as how these companies have prospects for monetization. that is why you are seeing this performance in the greater china markets today. but it is not just regulation on gaming that china is pushing through. it is also turning up the heat on trade policy. it is going to restrict some of the exports for the processing technologies. this will make it more difficult potentially for western nations to secure supplies of the material. we have seen this counter in australia. we are watching apparel makers in the region. nike cutting guidance and missing on the forecast for the greater china sa
how these big state owned lenders have cut their deposit rates and that is seen as a sign that the pboc could cut lending rates. some see it as soon i january. but then china unveiled online gaming curbs, and things went south. the big drags coming from these gaming companies, tencent falling by as much as 28%, the worst on record. this curb coming through from china is to curb the excessive spending, as well as rewards for on what -- for online gaming. that will affect the number of active...
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Dec 18, 2023
12/23
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we have seen it pressured by pboc policies. we are expecting a dovish pivot from the fed.els you are envisioning for the chinese yuan? >> we are right now at about 7.1. we have risen from the level before. around seven would be a reasonable valuation level. shery: we have policy support. we have cheap chinese assets going into 2024. i wonder what their earnings momentum will be like going into 2024. i am told we have lost that feed. he is the chief economist in partner agro investment group. take a look at the chinese markets. it has been a year in the red. take a look at the underperformance after having been so bullish in terms of analyst expectations going into 2023 and going into 2024, not much has changed. perhaps we could see that improved policy support helped out chinese assets. perhaps some of that confidence returns. take a look at some of the stocks we will be watching. we are talking about apple suppliers. more chinese agencies have ordered staff to stop ringing iphones to work. china has reported passenger traffic for november was up 334%. air china announced
we have seen it pressured by pboc policies. we are expecting a dovish pivot from the fed.els you are envisioning for the chinese yuan? >> we are right now at about 7.1. we have risen from the level before. around seven would be a reasonable valuation level. shery: we have policy support. we have cheap chinese assets going into 2024. i wonder what their earnings momentum will be like going into 2024. i am told we have lost that feed. he is the chief economist in partner agro investment...
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Dec 1, 2023
12/23
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i think that the, if the pboc put the -- into practice, it can increase the supply compared with thetock by 16% to 24%. but it should take years to realize this. so, it cannot be a shock in the short-term. rishaad: thank you so much. we will be looking out for anything else like, of course, more and more talk about reserve requirement cuts and cash injections. david chiu, are you economist. let's turn to some of the big stories we are covering. the enemies and chinese officials are firming up arrangements for president she shipping-- president xi's possible visit to hanoi. december 14 to 16th. chinese foreign minister is also ready to discuss the matter during his visit to vietnam beginning thursday. xi was less than the country in 2017. and that was for an apec summit. janet yellen is -- reiterating the need for the united states to reduce its overreliance on china and key supply chains, saying that dependence makes the country more vulnerable to risks. yellen also touted the recent -- economic data that suggest the fed could be on track to end its tightening cycle. reporting the ho
i think that the, if the pboc put the -- into practice, it can increase the supply compared with thetock by 16% to 24%. but it should take years to realize this. so, it cannot be a shock in the short-term. rishaad: thank you so much. we will be looking out for anything else like, of course, more and more talk about reserve requirement cuts and cash injections. david chiu, are you economist. let's turn to some of the big stories we are covering. the enemies and chinese officials are firming up...
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Dec 11, 2023
12/23
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lizzy: and yet the pboc has tried to downplay the deflation risk, so what do you expect for the nextecision? jinny: to be fair, there is some base effects happening here and if that should work to the favor of the headlines. probably we will see inflation, particularly cpi, hovering around zero, but ppi still in negative territory. the central bank is now very much in a phase of stabilizing its monetary policy. yes, there is more easing potentially to come but that play second fiddle to fiscal policy. we have seen this emphasis on using fiscal stimulus, as well as credit stimulus, to encourage spending and investment. lizzy: we had this statement from the politburo on friday. how much support do you expect in 2024 for the property sector? jinny: this politburo meeting sets the tone for the central economic work meeting, which is also coming up. that is the key. there is definitely drafted policies, but there will be very much a cautious tone in terms of rolling out all these policies. the property sector has already seen some policies to support the sector, but the emphasis is on res
lizzy: and yet the pboc has tried to downplay the deflation risk, so what do you expect for the nextecision? jinny: to be fair, there is some base effects happening here and if that should work to the favor of the headlines. probably we will see inflation, particularly cpi, hovering around zero, but ppi still in negative territory. the central bank is now very much in a phase of stabilizing its monetary policy. yes, there is more easing potentially to come but that play second fiddle to fiscal...
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Dec 15, 2023
12/23
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all investors are looking and hoping and waiting for stimulus out of the pboc.could ramp up. you could definitely see a risk on move. lisa: in the u.s., the senate delaying its holiday break's aid for ukraine hangs in the balance and chuck schumer saying negotiations will continue in hopes they can pass a bill next week. house speaker mike johnson has repeatedly said ukraine aid cannot pass without a deal on immigration and the houses left washington for its holiday break and this is one of the most under told stories of the past month. people have been focused on israel/hamas that they haven't focused on the ukrainian border and if they don't get funding, they are handing a victory to russia. katie: especially with what's going on in the eu, not being able to produce some aid package. it's interesting to see is playing out in congress. when it comes to the democratic side, president joe biden has offered some compromises on u.s. border policy but you think about how doug in the two sides are and what the eventual compromise will look like hopefully hammered out
all investors are looking and hoping and waiting for stimulus out of the pboc.could ramp up. you could definitely see a risk on move. lisa: in the u.s., the senate delaying its holiday break's aid for ukraine hangs in the balance and chuck schumer saying negotiations will continue in hopes they can pass a bill next week. house speaker mike johnson has repeatedly said ukraine aid cannot pass without a deal on immigration and the houses left washington for its holiday break and this is one of the...
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Dec 11, 2023
12/23
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on friday we have the pboc. that is the one we are watching.markets this week. rishaad: these are the key rates in focus. what did they all mean next year? we have a bond market that will be seeing a variety of cuts next year. that means we will see a sharp slowdown. that is not the verbiage coming out of the federal reserve. you see a recession in the first half. with the jobs data coming out on friday, we are seeing that might scupper your view. >> the market is forecasting that the fed will cut rates without a recession. there are two rate cuts in the first half cut in. but the market is not pricing in a recession. rishaad: they were pricing in tatts last year as well. >> they were. they get excited about that. we interesting if they cut out the language of there might be a further rate hike. i don't think they well. i think chairman powell speech a few days ago, he is pushing back on that. something to watch this week is the forecast for inflation. they have it at 2.6% of the end of next year. why would the fed cut rates if it is still that
on friday we have the pboc. that is the one we are watching.markets this week. rishaad: these are the key rates in focus. what did they all mean next year? we have a bond market that will be seeing a variety of cuts next year. that means we will see a sharp slowdown. that is not the verbiage coming out of the federal reserve. you see a recession in the first half. with the jobs data coming out on friday, we are seeing that might scupper your view. >> the market is forecasting that the fed...
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Dec 22, 2023
12/23
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larry: i think it is good, positive news for the pboc that the fed may stop this hiking cycle which gives cut the benchmark interest rate in china. a cut in the first half of next year will help the chinese economy on the margins but fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy. the u.s. will probably enter a cutting cycle in the second quarter. shery: larry hu, good to have you with us, head of china economics, macquarie securities. haidi: that is really the wildcard going into next year, and the wildcard when it comes to where next for chinese market. they open in less than a half hour. i think i have asked the question of every guest we have had on in recent memory as to whether they see compelling opportunities in these low valuations for china next year. none of them have been constructive, shall i say. [laughter] david: yeah, either they have not been constructive, or if they have been, they were not correct. to put it bluntly. [laughter] a couple of things we are tracking. we start short-term and go long-term as we wrap up a challenging year. against the backdrop of a globa
larry: i think it is good, positive news for the pboc that the fed may stop this hiking cycle which gives cut the benchmark interest rate in china. a cut in the first half of next year will help the chinese economy on the margins but fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy. the u.s. will probably enter a cutting cycle in the second quarter. shery: larry hu, good to have you with us, head of china economics, macquarie securities. haidi: that is really the wildcard going into next...
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Dec 20, 2023
12/23
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we have been covering today the loan prime rate set by the pboc. they didn't do anything to it.r has been on hold at these levels for six straight months right now and also the one-year lending was also unchanged. this is because of the central bank's actions. further monetary easing will be taking place the 2024. quick look at the currency picture. the yen under pressure since the dovish news out of the bank of japan in the session tuesday. we have the yuan, which had a stronger than anticipated fixing but at the moment the dollar is gaining 713 at the moment and the aussie at .67. the dollar making some strides. that's a look at the markets overall. as you can see on the left side, the major equity bench marks are moving to the upside. bloomberg daybreak middle east and africa is next. ♪ (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release work
we have been covering today the loan prime rate set by the pboc. they didn't do anything to it.r has been on hold at these levels for six straight months right now and also the one-year lending was also unchanged. this is because of the central bank's actions. further monetary easing will be taking place the 2024. quick look at the currency picture. the yen under pressure since the dovish news out of the bank of japan in the session tuesday. we have the yuan, which had a stronger than...
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Dec 4, 2023
12/23
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we had the pboc saying that there still room for the cut in rrr but that surely would not support thein mind that the yuan has been well supported by the central bank. >> the thing about the move of the renminbi, it is back to where the fixing rate is. so you can argue that the movement over the past two or three weeks of strengthening is moving back toward the fixing rate and where excess bearishness is anticipated. on rrr, they have to do that because rates have been cut to reasonably low levels that they need to encourage more borrowing for the economy to restart itself. haslinda: when do you see a cut coming? >> potentially first quarter next year. haslinda: we look at the commodities space as well, gold in excess of $2000. bitcoin in excess of $40,000. it's already breached the level that you were after. >> i wish i had this conversation last week, right? we changed it for gold to be at 2000 for the end of next year. i think a few things. weak dollar, lower rates, etf holdings at reasonably low levels. central banks in asia, china and singapore are still going so the direction is
we had the pboc saying that there still room for the cut in rrr but that surely would not support thein mind that the yuan has been well supported by the central bank. >> the thing about the move of the renminbi, it is back to where the fixing rate is. so you can argue that the movement over the past two or three weeks of strengthening is moving back toward the fixing rate and where excess bearishness is anticipated. on rrr, they have to do that because rates have been cut to reasonably...
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Dec 5, 2023
12/23
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david: what assumptions are you making on the 4.5% target as far as fiscal expansion and what is the pboc monetary side? >> in terms of fiscal policy, the numbers next year might look officially, smaller than this year if we think about late in october, the government making the unusual move to lift the budget. that budget cannot be spent, entirely spent this year and some of that will have to fall into 2024. even if the fiscal stimulus is lower than this year in terms of actual spending, it would be higher. more stimulative than this year. this year spending has been slow so overall terms, the budget cannot be finished. next year we expect more positive support coming from the fiscal side. in terms of monetary policy, still, the policy will remain supportive. we see 30 basis cuts in the quality rates and 50 basis point cut in the rrr but the economy will be delayed because there is not much of a window for rate cuts. we see the next move coming in march in terms of monetary policy rate cuts. yvonne: thanks chang shu. we will get more from her team. the rba set to go back on hold when the
david: what assumptions are you making on the 4.5% target as far as fiscal expansion and what is the pboc monetary side? >> in terms of fiscal policy, the numbers next year might look officially, smaller than this year if we think about late in october, the government making the unusual move to lift the budget. that budget cannot be spent, entirely spent this year and some of that will have to fall into 2024. even if the fiscal stimulus is lower than this year in terms of actual spending,...
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Dec 14, 2023
12/23
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what will be the impact on china, especially with it giving perhaps more leeway for the pboc to do morehey have acted they have opted to increase liquidity instead of cut rates. enda: this looks like a material change out of washington overnight. certainly compared to what chairman powell said a few weeks ago. on the surface he would have to say for china, it would take pressure off the portfolio outflow story. investors have been pulling out of china. obviously some of that reflects a geopolitical story but it also reflects a yield differential story. that has been crushing the e.m. trade. if the fed is going to start reversing some of those rate cuts next year, that would take pressure off the portfolio. for china, and by extension, it would take downward pressure off the yuan, which of course the authorities would probably welcome. now, how much of that will play out which to be seen. we don't know -- you have to say that on paper at least, it is potentially a positive for the china markets portfolio story because the fed and the pace of interest rate hikes was one of the key variabl
what will be the impact on china, especially with it giving perhaps more leeway for the pboc to do morehey have acted they have opted to increase liquidity instead of cut rates. enda: this looks like a material change out of washington overnight. certainly compared to what chairman powell said a few weeks ago. on the surface he would have to say for china, it would take pressure off the portfolio outflow story. investors have been pulling out of china. obviously some of that reflects a...
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Dec 6, 2023
12/23
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discussion around the renovation program and potential financing of this through supplementary lending by pboc014 and 2017 cycle, this program proved quite effective in boosting the real estate prices. for sure, we don't have the details for this program -- these programs yet. if they can announce this may be in the upcoming conference, then that could prove -- improve market sentiments but the long-term pessimism still prevails. >> always good to talk to you. thank you. of course, we are watching crypto related shares because continue to see bitcoin on a tear. what are you seeing? annabelle: that's right. it just seems like a bit of fomo perhaps is returning to crypto markets because we have seen big gains for bitcoin. you think we only crossed the 40,000 threshold over the weekend. it is a big advance. these are some of the crypto linked names in asia. we have seen big trading routes for these across the course of this week that it is following the gains we had for crypto linked stocks on wall street, for instance. coinbase. marathon digital, all up for a third day. each are up more than 300
discussion around the renovation program and potential financing of this through supplementary lending by pboc014 and 2017 cycle, this program proved quite effective in boosting the real estate prices. for sure, we don't have the details for this program -- these programs yet. if they can announce this may be in the upcoming conference, then that could prove -- improve market sentiments but the long-term pessimism still prevails. >> always good to talk to you. thank you. of course, we are...