tv Countdown Bloomberg January 21, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EST
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over the price of oil. >> and the most talked about man in europe is set to arrive in davos. thomas jordan faces the forum after last week's spectacular change of policy. >> hello. welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. >> i'm anna edwards. we have over -- loads of ceos. a lot of prime minister's. they companies over there. >> they are all here. what they're talking about is the price of oil. that seems to be the subject everyone is focusing on here. how big of an impact will have
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on the global economy in 2015? what will it mean for the businesses for their countries? everyone is trying to figure that out. the pace of the change has been so dramatic. no one has an answer. >> it is interesting. we walked around. there were plenty of ceos and finance ministers that now work for banks. when you chat with them on oil and swiss franc is this off the record? and still try to figure out how to read into this. this is the crux of the problem. a lot of the sessions are full. you haven't quite figured it out. >> it's too early to say. the pace of change has been so fast. this is a currency that accounts for 10% of global fx trading.
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that kind of move highlights the volatility that these guys are talking about. makes running a business incredibly difficult. makes running a country probably even harder. >> makes running a central bank much harder. he comes every year. the first year he is not speaking up yet usually gets a nice half hour off the record background. >> i think they had no choice. >> i think a lot of people have a lot of questions. how exactly did you think this through? how is this going to work? how did you see this? i think a lot of people are still scratching ahead and china figure out what happened. they just want answers.
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>> data want to be quoted or cited. they ask you questions. what i'm to find out to see if they have done it at another time. it is timing. whether they have done something else. not really blaming swiss franc national bank at all. they had to tackle it and what they thought was the best way. >> and they warm up back to the ecb. looking forward to that. this is being felt not just in the forum. it's being felt in the hotels and restaurants around davos. they are really reeling from the significant change. i asked what kind of an impact he felt the swiss franc would be
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having. >> i think it is not going to be helpful for some part of the swiss economy. we'll see how it pans out. >> right. but overnight -- not great. >> right in the middle of the ski season, etc. >> a lot of people make last-minute plants. for hotel like this when skiing is important, it is a big meeting space. for corporations who plan to head, i doubt it would change it. really come it will decide people's decisions if it stays more expensive. >> people canceling hotel bookings? >> we haven't seen that. if you have a security event, a couple things happen you then
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you see cancellations. the destructive market like hong kong we saw a lot of cancellations. >> last night there was a big party. the russians are here. they didn't think twice about coming. there is a big party in the farm. you were there. -- in the forum. you were there. >> i was there. how much money did they spend? it gives you a nice pulse on what countries or companies think need to be seen. we had an amazing concert. it is great. the crowd he spoke to loved loved -- they are both from tuscany, but different parts. they were citing poetry to each other. i kid you not. [laughter]
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>> it is interesting they are quoting poetry rather than the ecb. >> i gave them 100% points. 10/10 for deflecting the attention. more on that to come. >> more on that later. 20 of great guess coming up. imagine the parking last night. -- we had a party last night. plenty of questions. >> we will be hearing about the price of oil and they tie in reform on the banking sector. >> back to you. >> what have you done with jonathan ferro? >> he was standing outside that concert.
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heading to a pub the last time i saw him. >> not many pubs in davos. i'm not sure what you call a pub. >> they definitely have bars. he was very well behaved, jonathan ferro p at he will be joining us later. he is on the trail today. everybody wants to find out when he is going to be showing up. jonathan ferro -- that's interesting. [laughter] >> we miss that poetry smacked down. later there is going to get 02 smacked down between edwards and barton. >> thank you very much. thank you very much. >> economics was the keynote and president obama state of the union address. he declared the u.s. economy had
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healed and the nation should address the income gap. >> president obama put forward proposals for free access to community college and higher taxes for the wealthiest americans. >> he also threatened to veto any legislation that try to roll back his signature health care law or regulations on wall street. >> for more, let's get to hans nichols. he joins us from berlin. what did you make of it? an optimistic speech? >> it was certainly optimistic and it wasn't so much a speech as it was a victory lap over the economy. the economy that has bedeviled him for the first six years of his administration. lot of economic data out of the state is good. he talked about middle-class economic. at numerous stages, he claimed credit for the economic revival. >> for all the tasks that lie
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ahead, the shadow of crisis has passed. the state of the union is strong. [applause] >> most of his proposals whether or not it is a new tax on banks or new capital gains rate although we are up to 20%, most of these are going to go nowhere in a republican-controlled congress. the speech was a most aspirational. it was about framing the debate for i-16 and what is going to happen next. republicans were widely critical. -- four 2016 and what is going to happen next. republicans were widely critical. the president was trying to set the terms for the 2016 election and have a few areas where he could make have some agreement. he did talk about tax reform on the corporate side. also, trade deals. it is easy to do with the
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republican congress than a democratic one. >> talking about the other subject matters, cyber security is also a big focus of president obama's. >> this is a big focus in the states right now. they are convinced he needed to do something new. something more. have a listen. >> we are making sure our government combat cyber threats just as we have done to come that terrorism. tonight i urge this congress to finally passed the legislation we need to better meet the evolving threat of cyber attacks. combat identity that and protect our children's information. that should be a bipartisan effort. >> he has two years left in office, but his nine months, six was, you may be three months before the 2016 presidential race happens pretty he has a limited window to get things done. >> thanks you.
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hans nichols joining us from berlin. >> you could join the conversation on twitter. tell us what you think of the show and the state of the union address is trending. i am sure davos will be trending. anna has taken a nice picture of francine and guy. [laughter] >> our next guest talks about the gas in oil prices as one of the biggest risk to the world economy. definitely a talking point in switzerland. ♪
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down later. it is all going to be about nursery rhymes. let's take a look at the company news. sure is a netflix very much in the headlines. soaring yesterday. it expects to complete is international expansion and looking at the profits of 2017. on the company added more than 4 million new subscribers. samsung what use its own version of the galaxy s smartphone. companies of qualcomm chip that overheated during testing. the news is a blow to qualcomm. the move comes as something tries to boost its own processor making division. bp selling for its role in the
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2010 horizon disaster. some would be more than triple what bp has set aside. they are conducting a three-week trial to consider fines against the oil giant. the chinese billionaire is buying a stake in athletic football club. he is doing so through his company as a hedge against china's cooling property market. also 45 million euros for the state. marking the first invested best of by chinese company and a top european football club. and $30 million in a new financing that values the company at more than $1 billion. many use the chashazam app.
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the london-based company says it will use the money to expand into new markets and add to a technological capability. we will be speaking to the man with the billion dollar app later in today's show. andrew fisher coming up in just over half an hours time. >> 80 minutes past 6:00 in london. -- 18 minutes past 6:00 in london. good morning to you. those in davos they are worrying about the oil price and the pace at which the oil price is folly. one of our guest call this a transition. do you see it that way? >> i do think the substantial call is a big geopolitical risk. this is something that has been underplayed so far. oil prices in places like
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nigeria -- that is extremely concerning. if you think of saudi arabia, they tell us they could survive even at $20 a barrel. i have my doubts. don't forget they are in the process of subsidizing their population to keep -- discord down. they're having a subsidize everyone. how can they afford to do that? that is open to question. -- that is the question. >> i think there are two angles to that. i'm quite bullish. i think it will move higher rather than lower the next 6-12 months. trying to predict the oil price
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is difficult. not going to try to pick a number. i do think it will go higher and not lower. some of the fundamentals are out for quite positive. it is coming short leap. tells us it has been reduced massively even in the shale oil industry. that tells us that supply from the area will slow down. i'm quite bullish there. we live in a mad world. you're paying them to hold your money. i have never heard of that. that is insane. it seems there are two is you should be profiting. one is to look at different yields. the gap has never been greater in europe. never ever. secondly, you could look at other areas like gold.
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i'm looking for a safe haven swiss and german aunts are going to be misplaced anymore. that is done. gold in many ways is a better bet. you cannot print that. it is not costing you anything. not paying some government to hold your money. >> thank you. stay with us. 21 minutes past 6 a.m. in london. davos when we come back. ♪
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>> a portfolio manager is here. both in equities and bonds? >> as i was saying, naked it rate. the market is expecting a lot from mario draghi. the consensus is something around 500 billion euros of qe. it would have to be a lot more than that. >> what if he gives us no figure. the only problem is this has to be dealt with the national banks. i'm sure the germans will be
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comfortable -- uncomfortable with not getting a figure. do believe the german government will allow that? >> what will drive equity markets forward? >> if it is not going to be blonde yields, it has to be corporate profitability. we have to see positive growth. we haven't seen a lot of profit growth thus far. with two massive tailwinds now. secondly being lower energy costs. commodity prices are on the floor. we have lower costs. i think those two elements should help corporate profit growth. >> part driven by the regulators.
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58% of investors say that the shanghai market will be flat or negative in the next six months. parks i pull back and look at the bigger picture -- >> i pull back and look at the bigger picture. the answer is it is still relatively cheap. massively underperformed the index. there is still in a capture mode. i think there is still plenty they could cap shop. what i see them doing is implementing a move that is sensible. a little bit more regulation is good for the long-term. >> good to see you. global equities fund manager. >> coming up, we will tell you what the billionaires in. posts
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the big news was expected. the boj lowered its core inflation protection to 1% of the fiscal year. the risk of consumer prices falling briefly this year. it highlights the challenge faced by the governor in achieving this 2% price goal after almost two years of record easing. does it mean there needs to be further easing? over the longer term, the economy will benefit from the lower energy bill. the central bank raising their is growth estimate to 2.1% for the next fiscal year. the dollar is down against the yen. they kept its monetary easing unchanged. >> these are the bloomberg top headlines this hour.
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he declared the u.s. economy has risen from the session. proposing higher taxes for the wealthiest of americans. >> that is what middle class economics is. the idea that this country does best when everyone gets their fair shot. everyone does their fair share. everyone plays by the same set of rules. we do not just want everyone to share, but contribute to our success. >> depend central bank has cut its inflation forecast to 1% and kept easing program unchanged. the bank of japan said it will increase the monetary base of and anil pace of ¥80 trillion -- of an annual pace of ¥80
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trillion. there is a flight that crashed last month killing hundred 62 million people -- 162 million people was ascending at several 1000 feet per minute before disappeared from radar. the voice recorder shows the pilot was talking in the cockpit and that no explosion was heard. >> let's get back to davos where guy and francine has the latest on the billionaires hole. >> a great -- poll. >> a great escrow city. >> the president was talking about middle income economics. we are going to talk the high-end economics and what these guys were talking about. >> you could talk about the american dream. >> of becoming the 1%.
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matt, they are trying to figure out what happens next. everyone wants to know what they think about. they have made it to the 1%. they are obviously pretty smart guys. what are they concerned about? >> now that they are rich, they are concerned about staying rich. 2015, looks like they've have a lot of free money. they think the world is just too tender right now. they worry about radical terrorism. relationship with russia. all of these things they are talking about. the talk about it in terms of political context. >> give me a sense of how many are around tear. is it vastly different?
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>> for the 100 billionaires. >> 100? >> in previous years, more than 80. more than 25 are from the u.s. 15 from india. india is the second biggest contingent. they love the colt. the -- they love the cold. [laughter] the russians have at least 8 billion is. there could be as many as 10 or 12. >> all of them talked about interest rates. this is one of their main focus is. >> a huge focus. they want to do that. they want to keep interest rates low. they could invest in it and hopefully stock markets will rise and they will get richer. >> let's talk about the
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all-stars. there definitely people we need to listen to. who stands out to you? >> jack ma makes his appearance. one of two chinese billionaires on the ground. when you ask them with you want to me, jack ma. we should be speaking to smart investors. how do they deal with the swiss franc? how do you trade going forward? talking to this smart investors will be the thing that people at davos will want to do. >> how much do we know of where they have their money? i know you're working on it. >> a lot of billionaires like to diversify it and do it geographically. or they do it through london or new york. they are trying to diversify.
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what you're looking at his people that are trying to digest for a -- diversify. they don't want to be left holding the bag when something like that happens. >> they're not speculating. it is all about wealth preservation. >> billionaires become billionaires with one idea one asset, one company. they stay rich by diversifying. typically they are not good at diversifying. there are good at being stubborn and focusing on one asset. they need good money managers and smart investors. nature they are diversified so things like that do not happen. -- make sure they are diversified so things like that do not happen. >> we know that there were some parties. are we expecting the billionaires to throw a party? we met up with a couple.
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do they feel relaxed enough to talk liberally, but network? >> i think so. this would be the place to be if you are a billionaire hunter. you could go to parties at night. most of them are very accessible. it walk around with the same the bad you and i do. it is one of the easier -- with the same badge you and i do. it is one of the easier -- >> where did they do business? >> in private rooms. cars. there is a aa pass where presidents and heads of states get. lots of private meeting rooms in hotel rooms. a huge community of people who come to davos who will spend other time in hotel and never come down to the center diff to do business. things get done behind closed doors. >> one of the biggest concerns
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is terrorist threats. is there an initiative to try to tackle on that? are they talking to each other about it? >> i haven't heard anyone talk about those things. the good thing of coming to davos is there able to exchange information off one another. it is one big exchange of information. what do you know about what your government is going to do? that is a kind of thing they are looking for. >> interesting conversation which we are all excited to be a part of. >> back to you. >> thank you. a beautiful morning there in switzerland. >> jack ma is the billion most billionaires would like to meet. >> many of those billionaires we have been hearing it about davos is a famous destination.
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jonathan ferro sense as a personal video diary. >> here i am at the world economic forum. my first time. i'm in good company. i'm going to take you behind the scenes. come to davos they said. rub shoulders with billionaires and central bankers. i was on the move. i've met security guards and freezing cold temperatures. it's not that glamorous. now i'm in the world-famous conference center. supposedly this is where the magic happens and where the deals get done. the areas. -- there he is. what i can see is lots and lots
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of members. to be fair, it is opening night and it is starting to fill up. but not quite my crap. -- my crowd. i say we to are script and do something different. let's face it. the real networking isn't done in the center. it is done here at the bar. i chanced upon myself one of those notorious davos parties. >> we'll find out later whether he did find some parties. looks like he found a pub. much more sophisticated bar. that is the intelligence on the ground. we'll try to locate jonathan ferro. join the conversation on twitter . plenty going on in relation to davos. >> coming up the evaluation for
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one simple idea has earned itself and if i wish and of more than $1 billion. -- an evaluation of more than $1 billion. we're joined by shazam's executive chairman, andrew fisher. a big investment. $1 billion. congratulations. tell us what you'd plan to do with the money. you have increased the world of what is shazam-able. >> absolutely. we are excited about the strategy and how we are seeing the momentum. and makes it easier for people to engage with content or brands that they are interested in. it is not just music. it's radio. removed into other environments like the cinema -- we have moved into other environments like the cinema. we can see people want the
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opportunity to make their life easier. >> give us a sense of how the technology has changed? you doubt 2580 into mobile phone -- dialed 2580 into the mobile phone. he held it up to the music. >> probably a flip phone. >> you would receive a sms back and it would tell you the name of the song. >> i would say the last 13 days -- it is all about making people's lives easier. unless you do that, people are motivated to spend their time on a new service. with shazam have to press the button to identify music or going to retail store and receive an offer to your phone. you get a response back. they're moving into beginning technology -- beacon technology.
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we call it contextual relevant. we think about what you are interested in and not what everyone else is interested in. you could be in the supermarket aisle. you could be in the drinks i'll do it we could send a notification to device and say there is a coupon offer -- you could be in the drinks aisle. we could send a notification to your device and say there is a coupon offer. >> you have been rubbing shoulders with the rich and famous. guy, jump on in here. >> congratulations on shazam. the question -- when does shazam ipo? let's stay in the structure we have got now? >> thank you, guy.
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the first thing i would say is we haven't had to raise the money. we have been fortunate with the private investment community. we do have a couple of alien errors -- billionaires. that gives us option nala the on an ipo. we are very cognizant of what is happening throughout the world right now. the in private gives us so many choices around our strategy. -- being private gives us so many choices around our strategy. strengthening the balance sheet gives us more choices on when we would consider going to the public market. >> do you feel pressure?
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what are you going to be investing the money in? is it just the balance sheet? or other areas? >> whether they are cheap investors or billionaires or family offices, these are specific -- sophisticated investors that have clear visions about investment and the changes happening. many of our investors take a long-term view. that is because they see the opportunity in terms of some of the structure and that is being created in the world. >> terms of the challenges you face at the moment, we are talking about technology and investing in that. what is turning out to be the biggest challenge? we have talked in the past even about how tough it is to start the company. is that still the case? is the search for talent still the biggest case?
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>> coming to the announcement it is a significant milestone and validation for our come any. people do get that far company. people do get attracted in terms of talent improvement, and retention. within europe, we have over 200 staff. a lot of the value is being created are the staff that we have in our london office and north america and other parts of the world. huge talent pools in london -- london and other places. >> tell us about your business. the deals you make with other companies that some might -- thought were enemies. companies that could be rivals. music is the streaming for example. >> we don't want to be in the
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business of running a music streaming service. we have integrated spotify and others where you could shazam and listen within itself. we delivered on something i were users haven't been able to do before. listen to the music after they discovered it. other partnerships, we happy to be partnering with people like apple. you could use the voice recognition system to use shazam . other other big corporations we are in discussions with. for us it is helpful. we have over 500 million users. 20 million use shazam today. to grow that -- there are 6 billion people in the world that have a mobile phone -- we would need strategic partnerships. cooperation is helpful.
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>> what is the conversion rate? that people look for the song and buy it? >> we sell 500,000 songs every single day. we make it easier for people's daily lives. >> thank you very much. congratulations on the fund-raising. andrew fisher of shazam. >> coming up, our favorite stories. call it a draw in china. ♪
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>> just an hour away from european trading. calling it later -- apocalypse later. the article says those two like economic statistics are probably better off not seeing how they are made. [laughter] their other pieces of data that experts look at such as electricity steael metal output. it is a nice little piece. >> very interesting in the
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context we were having with shazam. they're not talking about the timing of a possible ipo. the dollar amounts was up. the number of deals up only 4%. we seeing fewer, but much bigger investment. air coming in a later stage. apparently this is indicative of private companies wanting to stay private for longer. they get good evaluation. a single no doubt watch through 2015. >> stay with us. ♪
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we are joined for the interview. the most talked about man in europe is set to arrive and faces a full room -- a forum. . >> hello and welcome to countdown. >> welcome to the second hour. francine and guy johnson are there and covering it. good morning to you. >> you have a new warm welcome. >> there are more than 1500 ceos
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or prime minister. the state bank of india. give us a sense of the excitement. how are you welcome? do a lot of investors speech to you? take the temperature of your country. it is pretty good. >> we have a lot of people coming this year and last year and i do not think the delegation was high-powered. we have a number of people coming here to meet us and know what is promised. >> everybody is excited and his
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arrival seems to have transformed the political and economic landscape. we are getting a sense of how he is getting traction. is that what everybody is looking to? >> it talks about revenue and has always been an incident where people expect to see policy initiatives and expect to know how the economy will perform. people are waiting to see the first full budget. not only that. you must understand that we have democracy demography and demand. it is difficult to find another country that does the same. >> give us a sense of what you
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think the banking system has to go through? is that something you are expecting to see changes and in the next 12 months? >> there is a lot demand for infrastructure. what was the major factor keeping us back? the ease of doing business was not good. we are experimenting with new models. the models run into problems because people did not really realize the challenges and they were regarding resources and lack of transparency.
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if we have taken the lessons properly going forward, the next cycle of growth will be one that is much better and it will have incorporated the mistakes in the past. the demand is huge and the growth cycle will be pretty good. >> you bring up infrastructure. they have cut rates. how months -- how much of the rate cuts are going to be transferred into the real economy? there seems to be a question about the level of debt and to a certain extent, you need to protect the margins. how effective are the rate cuts going to be? people get excited about the rate cut. you wonder how it will be transferred in the real economy. >> the rate cut, the credit and
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the lack of inflation. they are funded by the largest in the country and we hardly have any borrowing at all. we have very little. it does not immediately transfer itself. what the rate cut does is signal the cycle is here. that boosts sentiment which is important. if you look at the projects on the shelf, the rate cuts signal the time is here for you to get into it. as for how much will be transported to the banks, one is inflation.
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if you are deposit-led, you up to bring the cost of deposits to get the downward movement to the people who borrow money. if that is the case, deposits can only be low when inflation is low. i think the trends that have gotten entrenched will bring down the cost of deposits. we have cut deposit rates. going forward, this will be transmitted. >> you think the government will take this for right decisions without interfering too much. >> for the first time in the history of india, the banks are on a retreat and they were asked to give an opinion.
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they said it is great to be called and asked. you have committees after committees and we had somebody asking us. there were a lot of recommendations about what the government should do, including the fact that we need improvement in corporate governments and we have to have people who have domain knowledge of industry. now is a different kind of environment altogether. we ask for better quality and for support for a genuine commercial -- hindsight is 20-20.
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obviously banking is a function of taking risk. not all risk is going to pay. >> some bad decisions. reference the february budget. may be questioning the demographics and part of that. these think that will work for india? should they be looking for growth? that is the direction he is pointing at. >> make for india and the governor has said we should. we look at the time and several issues for instance, mining and
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sand. india is importing sand. you can bring down the account deficit. you can take care of that. the demand is huge. it makes for people outside and in india. >> thank you for your time. the chairman and and the managing director of the bank of india. we have five top ceos coming on. >> we will hear shortly. we will find out how that went and what is happening in russia.
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>> where is jonathan ferro? >> top story from washington is obama delivering a state of the union address overnight. he claims the economy has risen from recession. he touted new proposals including access to community college to fund tax credits. >> that is what middle class economics is. the idea that the country does best when everyone gets a fair shot. everyone plays by the same set of rules. we do not just want to share in success. we want to contribute. >> the state of the union address is one of the topics on twitter. tell us what you are watching. the china roller coaster.
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>> let's take a look at company news. they value the company at more than $1 billion. 100 million people use it to identify tv shows. the earlier executive chairman told bloomberg that they would be an excellent company and declined to comment on the timing. >> there are so many choices around modifying the strategy. we believe it would make an excellent public company. strengthening the balance sheet
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gives us more options about when we would consider going to public market. >> shares of netflix have soared as they said they will expand and deliver global profit. the net income doubled and the company added more than 4 million new subscribers. the microprocessors in the next version of the smartphone. the chip overheated during testing according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. it is a blow to qualcomm. samsung is trying to boost its division. $7 billion for the role in the deepwater horizon disaster. a judge will ultimately
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determine the penalty. it will be more than triple what was set aside. they are conducting a trial to consider fines against the giant. a 20% stake in the football club. the shopping mall and cinema operator hedges against giant cooling property markets. they paid to mark for the investment by the chinese company in the football club. >> 17 minutes past and we have the chip equipment manufacturer to discuss the numbers. let's talk to the chief officer. thank you for joining. it is your first quarter sales that have captured the
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imagination. how much visibility do you have and how will business perform? >> good morning. we just finished with close to $5.9 billion in revenue and we are very glad that we are seeing a strong start in 2015 with a strong backlog. we are adding in the first quarter with a solid margin that is almost three points from the last quarter. we are looking forward for another year. we see all of the sectors continuing to be strong.
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memory is strong. logic is coming that. i will say this is growing strongly for us. >> do you have any guidance for how much money you have to return to shareholders? that comes on the heels of a previous program. what is the intention regarding returning money. >> we started off with increasing the dividends and it marks the fourth year with an increase. on top of that, you are right that we have returned to shareholders. it is about 5.5 billion since 2006. we decided on a buyback program
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of one billion euro for the next two years that we are starting. >> the product you are talking about is the system. what kind of feedback are you getting from investors? what is the demand for these systems? >> it is the system that is the future and it is critical to continue. we are getting more for the next decade and beyond. the technology that will get us for the next 10 years has made great project -- progress and we
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have hit important milestones of productivity from image. so, a long way to go. we are making good progress. >> you mentioned the law. it will continue to drive the industry for another 10 years. give us an idea of the technology you and your customers are excited about that they would not have been able to deliver? >> you can pack more and more into a given area and it means better power for mobile devices. you will see continued development in the mobility space.
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the internet of things is a big deal for our customers. there is a lot of computing power on the back end editor requires better and better chips. lastly, making storage devices cheaper is essential for that to happen. >> thank you for joining us. the chief finance officer joined us. >> after the break, a little from
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>> netflix is beaten the analyst estimates. growth is up in after-hours trading. good morning. international growth. >> it is. expand profitably. we saw shares jump yesterday. they are booking up the client is. 57 million customers now. more than expected to be added. they are saying they will stay in the growth and the international work is phenomenal. they added users
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internationally. they say they will keep up the pace. you have better-than-expected customers coming on and sales up almost double. they are talking about the roll out and it is impressive. they have every connected country in the next two years with 200 countries in two years. they did not announce it. marriott is going to be introducing it into the hotels. you have material global profits. companies are saying, do not worry about profitability. we will grow. >> spending a lot. >> the competition is it right. you have $9.5 billion.
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>> good point. you are watching countdown. good morning. falling with the figures. the bank of japan has inflation forecasts for unprecedented monetary easing and the dollar's fall laying it. -- the dollar is falling. ¥80 trillion is forecast by bloomberg. the other is the lower core inflation projection for the fiscal year starting in april. the governor one over the longer-term and the economy will benefit with the central bank
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raising growth estimates for the next fiscal year. the goal of reaching that the next fiscal year is lofty. >> all out war is the direction the ukraine is headed. the president has cut short his trip. let's bring in ryan chilcote for an update. >> we have seen an escalation. russia has two battalions and he stopped a russian assault on checkpoints. they said the russians have three more battalions waiting and russia said it is nonsense. fighting persists in the east and ranges at the airport.
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that has been a focal point for the last several weeks. the suburbs in the east of the country. you have showing outside and there is concern about the idea of the land bridge between the territory controlled by the separatists and it is still on the table. the president says russia will defend itself and he was looking at russian weapons the other day. you have an emergency meeting of countries in the conflict. the germans called at the requests of the russians. they will all have their foreign ministers at that meeting. it is a last-ditch effort to try
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to get the peace talks back on track. it seems like it will be a big challenge. >> what are you watching? >> the ruble. it is not as bad as last year. let's not forget that was a momentary spike in the collapse of the ruble. it closed at 67. not far off. we saw it the last couple of weeks with declining oil prices. i am watching for the ceo in a few minutes. it is his first interview of the day. he is down 32%.
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of the analysts we talked to, only to think it is a buy. things to keep in mind is that things are very bad and it probably means more for the situation. creditors will be less likely to give the assistance. when it comes to russia, we need to watch the price. many people think the price of oil could go lower. >> thank you very much. ryan chilcote with the details. >> guy and francine are there. >> we have heard about the president of the ukraine. he will be speaking to bloomberg later on. we will keep you up on the news we will get. >> the story is captivating
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minds. there was the impression they would not be coming. there is a raft of reasons. that could not be further from the truth. matthew campbell has been writing about the russians and was there. did it cross the russians minds to not come? >> i do not think so. the delegation is smaller than last year with 70 business people, as opposed to 80. neither vladimir putin or dmitry medvedev. there is luke oil and all the companies that have been sanctioned by the u.s. and the
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european union. they are being reinforced. >> we were asking questions about the currency and spending in rubles. it cost you a lot more money than it did last wednesday. politically, they are trying to drum up investments. >> if you are a russian company, you wake up and say, life goes on. we have to do business. this is where important investors are. it was interesting that the managing director of the economic forum showed up to the party and gave a speech. he wanted to show how welcome the russian friends are. there is an interception and i imagine a lot of american politicians will not want
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anything to do with it. others are happy to do it. >> you get the sense here and else where that the europeans have it reflected in some of the ways formulated. you have invested heavily in russia and continue to not want to burn the bridges. >> absolutely. they cannot afford to lose russia as a market. they were critical of sanctions on russia and we are seeing more moderate statements. >> i do not think it was anything outrageous. correct me if i am wrong.
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>> we have some restricted. this was one of the more decadent -- decadent gatherings. there is the golden and. there is the jazz guitarist and someone whom i russian friends assure me is the biggest star in russia and is more obscure to us. >> vodka, caviar, everything you would ask act. -- expect. >> listening to the stories. you guys have been covering the way you see the russians. do you think there is something that comes from the top. do not be afraid and do not feel
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like you are on the back foot. they are not and anyways saying that. >> we have the chief executive who said there are certain friends in the west and are going to come here. from the russian perspective, they have not done anything wrong. our government has taken a position on the russian actions and the company has a different perspectives. in spirit of disagreement everyone is protecting that. >> we have it on the air in 20 minutes and we will get his takes. >> certainly several hundred.
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>> shocking. >> it is painful for us. >> people need to look out. >> it is on the russian side and they are all the same as parties coming up. google and an annual run of these that they get used to and they will make comparisons between all of them. >> thank you. covering a lot and following the russian delegation. >> thank you very much. getting ready. >> it is trending on twitter and is one of the most popular subjects. follow us and you can find us.
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>> time for the chart. it is a question worth asking. they scrapped the currency cap and many positioned for the frank to weaken against the dollar and the euro. is there a danger in following the herd when they raise rates less quickly? this is the bloomberg dollar. it attracts the greenback against the basket of leading global currencies. look at the top right of your screen. that was reached on january 8. it is seven consecutive months of gains from july and january. that goes back.
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this is on the assumption that europe and japan continue to debase the currency. hedge funds and others have pushed back on the rally and strategists see the dollar gaining against all but 10 of their peers. even on a measure of the dollar versus the currency. it is short of the highs and suggests the advance in the dollar may have further to go. they are already facing small signs that the reserve is pulling back. the contracts show a chance the u.s. will raise rates before
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october. traders were betting on a september increase. let's finish with the words of jonathan low as. he is the ceo and says that people have to be reassessing the positions. in the cases switzerland, people were betting on the kinds -- the kindness of strangers and people they never met whose names they could not pronounce. it is a policy surprise lurking? >> i can think of a man who will be interested. let's head out. we are joined by guy. we have order talked about the party. let's talk about the man and the business. let's talk for this.
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>> good morning. >> i hope so. >> you were here in 1996 and telling us the situation is different. what is the thing people ask you the most? what will russia go through? how will growth pickup? >> it is whether we feel isolated or circumstances. we do not feel isolated. we have to come here to discuss the business relationships and what is happening in the world. >> even if you do not feel isolated, you are taking a vacation. >> we have to adjust. that is life. under the circumstances, we have to change the strategy and tactics.
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>> did you think about coming. >> not at all. >> starting from the top and down to the business community. we are not going to be isolated. we want to be part of the world. it is vital to continue. >> this is the conversation we have had. you are a central bank and what is the benefit? >> it is important for local investment and regular business. we are over private investors and the recent press explains the position and what to do explaining what is happening. so on. >> russia will stay in a tough place for a long time?
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is it going to be issue for business? is this the new normal? is this something that is temporary and will pass? >> is like a body. sometimes, it is healthy and sometimes, there is illness. sometimes, there is a virus. sometimes, there is a chronic disease. things like sanctions or oil prices will end one or two years. there are some structural changes that will have to do with chronic disease. we have to tackle both. the situation will improve. there will be another cycle. we're working on how to protect
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the economy from the development. >> it depends on the bottom. give us a sense of the sanctions. do you think they will be lifted? >> it is difficult to say when that will be lifted. we see no reason why they should be strengthened or kept. i'm not the politician. there are political reasons for this. there is hope they will be loosened and soft and and allow banks to come back to the capital markets and the bond markets. what about the oil price? i think it will fluctuate and it
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will be except bowl for the russian economy. -- acceptable for the russian economy. the russian economy should accept a certain level of price and adjust to the new reality. >> you talk about the bond market and the capital requirements. it is coming in the first quarter. another $300 billion more. as the number gone up recently with the switch in capital? >> there will be enough capital and the problem is they come from government forces and sanctions lead to a process of privatization and the market being stopped with a reverse to
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the source. of course, it is not the way we were dreaming about. we have no choices. >> what is the forecast for economic contraction? you have different forecasts. how long is the recession going to be? >> this year might be the most difficult for the russian economy. we have negative growth and inflation. we will the family have double digit. we feel that our clients and the russian companies feel less than 2009. there was a global crisis. we already have experience and i
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believe it will be painful and the economy and our business knows how to deal with the threat. i do not think it is the end of the world for the russian economy. i think the russian economy will start to pick up. >> talking about the possibility of the downgrade at the end of the month. everyone is waiting to see if it will be delivered. >> for us, it is not a concern. the national markets closed for us and we do not have any comments for borrowing. in any case, i am sure it will be paid by russian companies.
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we have no problem. the moment we feel the russian reserves allow companies to repeat his the intention of the government and there is no discussions that we will punish the west. >> you seem optimistic and this is a cycle you will get out. there must be something. is there something out of my control? what is your concern? >> they should be the voice of reason. the political problem and every
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8 >> you are welcome to "on the move or go i am managed -- on the move." let's get you straight through the morning. full steam ahead for the bank of japan. it dealt a fresh blow in its fight for inflation. projected price growth of just 1%. chinese roller coaster. it week of wild swings for stocks in china. the shanghai composite closes up 4.7% after suffering his biggest loss in seven years two days ago. a message to the middle class.
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president barack obama delivered an optimistic state of the union address and comes out swinging against growing wealth gaps. those are the issues that we are watching a term of morning trade. futures are indicated to open a little bit higher despite the disappointing news from the bank of japan. let's check in with caroline. >> a look at how we are opening up because we are expecting that rally to continue. can we extend that seven-year high we are managing to have fostered on the stoxx 600? so much anticipation for tomorrow. will mario draghi unleash that extra bond buying? will we get into sovereign debt? willoughby 550 berlin euros -- billion euros? the market seems to think so. interesting moves in asia overnight. we saw
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