woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. n.rk: i am mark halperin john john: i am john heilemann. ♪ john: happy national maple syrup day sports fans. first, a possible endangered species, establishment arians.

atarians.ent ted cruz is thinking about his strategy beyond the primaries. he announced the endorsement of the influential evangelical leader. all this has donald trump headlining the headlines again. today the donald got love from russian president vladimir putin. he seemed impressed with his fellow alpha male when speaking with reporters after his annual and delightful press conference in moscow. he is a very colorful person, talented without any doubt, but it is not our affair to to is thene -- but he leader in the race and wants to move to a different level of ,elations to a more solid

deeper relations with russia, and how cannot russia welcome that? we welcome that. as for the internal political issues and the terms of speech he uses, it is not our affair to evaluate them. with ted cruz and donald trump only getting stronger and with none of the more mainstream republican candidates become a dominant force, how likely is it do you think that throughout this entire race there will never be a dominant establishment frontrunner? end up with a two-person race, and i think trump and cruise both have resources -- ted cruz have reef sources, have a vision of how they will get delegates, an early stage strategy and longer-term strategy. as long as the four

establishment candidates are in the race and sniping at each , they made through a prisoner's dilemma cause all for to fail. john: there's no doubt the republican party has changed a lot. is possible that everything will be different. still,ublican party is the largest bloc of its voters are still main street conservatives and not grassroots conservatives. i cannot believe that the fear of donald trump and ted cruz rising, that there will not be some coalescing around and establishment candidate eventually. i don't think it is guaranteed. mark: if you look at how well positioned donald trump and ted cruz are, it may be that they are so far ahead in momentum that they become basically the equivalent with the norm of the establishment candidate who wins early.

it's not just one of them. if it was one of them, the math would work out that an establishment candidate had to be in there. if you look at a lot of these national and state polls and add up the bush, rubio, christie, and john kasich gores, you don't get the big percentage. donald trump and ted cruz are rising and well-funded. likely say it still more than not that there will be an establishment candidate around whom the mainstream vote coalesces. there's no doubt that there is a chance that this could happen. this we will explore how establishment doomsday scenario could play out on the calendar later in the program, but first, a secret newspaper owner case cracked. the previously unnamed

individual who secretly purchased their company a week ago, so who is this mask media mogul who has been unmasked? one of the most famous stand richest person in all of sin city, sheldon adelson and his family. they confirmed finally to the review journal what has been rumored for several days that of thee the new owners biggest newspaper and all of nevada, which is an important early voting state and the presidential nomination, calling it "a financial investment as well as an investment in the future of the las vegas community." he has yet to pick a candidate in this presidential race. does his purchase of the paper mean anything for 2016? john: not much. sheldon adelson is an important figure and politics, but mostly in the casino business. he cares about money most of all. termsill matter a lot in

of advancing his business interests in vegas, which are huge. page now will espouse his views. thehe sides with will get endorsement of this paper. i don't think newspaper and matter this much in this day and age. may not do anything before the caucuses, but it is a swing state in the general election, and you can imagine coverage having an impact over time there, and it is also a dominant paper. sheldon adelson were buying the des moines register, i think people would say regardless of whether there is a change in policy that it is something to watch. it will be watched. john: there is no doubt about that. if this paper turns into a newspaper web version of fox news where everything they do is seem to the prison of sheldon

adelson who cares about republican policy and israel, there might be some of that in the general election, a small effect. side of theratic presidential contest, bernie sanders rolled out two major endorsements today ahead of the next debate in new hampshire on saturday night. one is from the communications workers of america union, the second from democracy in america, the liberal grass roots group that grew out of how are dean's presidential bid. bernie sanders also boasted that his campaign has collected more than 2 million contributions, a big number, mostly from small donors, and yet, despite some of this good news, there is still a wide perception in the political class that he is doomed in the democratic nomination contest. that he has faded and will not get there. my question for you is how dangerous is the conventional wisdom to bernie sanders? mark: voters are sophisticated, particularly in early-voting's dates.

-- early-voting states. like any underdog, sanders needs people to believe that he can beat david -- the david and beat goliath. even with this good news, he's not getting that positive reinforcement. you know full well that his campaign is worried about exactly what we are talking about has they send out press releases all the time trying to combat the notion that this race is not over. i still think he can beat her in iowa and new hampshire and have his moment. the other thing hurting him is the national polls, losing so badly, just as barack obama was losing. if he keeps his focus, he can get back in it, but the perception is hurting him now. john: there are two things, iowa and new hampshire are everything ,or him, to ignite enthusiasm

that perception is important come just to be able to get those college kids to come out, you have to believe that he can win or they won't turn out. the second place will be in new hampshire, where independent voters are a huge, important factor up there. race is over, the that will kill bernie sanders. he needs those voters out there for him. that coming up, the things donald trump supporters say, but first, a deeper dive into the republican establishments worst nightmare. we are back with that in 60 seconds. ♪

we havee last 48 hours, been seeing the washington

establishment in full panic. they are terrified. the lastingly one in the world is for conservatives to unite, and so we are seeing attacks coming from every direction, the old military metaphor says if you're not taking flak, you're not over the target at this point, our opponents are very concerned. was ted cruz speaking to reporters in nevada earlier today. we are ready discussed whether it is possible that the conventional wisdom is wrong and there will be no consensus establishment candidate competing with donald trump and ted cruz emerging from the first three voting states and we could and we could end up with something the establishment would hate him a two-candidate race between donald trump and ted cruz. we wanted to test that. and he's it out a little more and see how worried the establishment should be. here is what we call our hypothetical establishment doomsday scenario --

scenario. ted cruz is leading the field but double digits, then donald trump, ben carson and other establishment -- and his talisman candidates. if they stayed where they are, the top three would be anti-establishment candidates, donald crews, ted trump, ben carson. that would be to establish a shutout. rubio is pushing their, particular john kasich, bush and christie pushing strong there. look at the latest polling thereby wbur. trump still has a big lead. close fourthn a place, and his campaign is bullish on his prospects with the establishment candidates, maybe finishing in second. i think if donald trump has a rough start, ted cruz could finish first under some scenarios. that means that ted cruz comes

out of iowa with momentum, leapfrogs marco rubio and his lead,trump keeps finishes first, ted cruz second, that means the associate candidate gets third-place, and so they now have and i was shutout, 30 new hampshire, south carolina, and south carolina historically voted for an establishment candidate every time in the republican race, but this time it could be different. fox newshe latest poll, trump with a big leader, carson is at 15%, holding on to a lot of his support their, he has got a fervent following there. coen ted cruz and mar rubio are in third place. ted cruz has the momentum of his iowa-new hampshire finishes, and carson hangs onto his supporters

, that means that marco rubio, jeb bush, chris christie, john kasich are set out here. the final tally would be something that would terrify the republican establishment. one,scenario would have no no establishment candidate no matter how high they finish in new hampshire, finishing in the money anywhere but that one state. that will not be a very good record as the campaign had south on march 1. this scenario is far from far-fetched, so what do you say about this rushing out of the prospects of the establishment after three states voted. ? john: it is a totally plausible scenario. there are someg, alternative scenarios that are also plausible. one is that i will and new

and newe -- iowa hampshire, where candidates get , marco rubio finishes in third place or second place in iowa, then he gets a rocket ship ride out of iowa and wins new hampshire. in new hampshire, chris christie finishes second in new hampshire , trump tumbles in some way after finishing not just in first or second, but finishes third somehow in iowa, and the wind is knocked out of his sails. hard to see it, but not impossible. there are other things that can happen here, right? this scenario is totally but for all of the weakness we talk about, i think we are more bearish on marco rubio than many people are. theave talked about ways that marco rubio has not

become the establishment figure. you can understand why many are attracted to marco rubio, he with theis the one path that could break up that establishment doomsday scenario. mark: which of the states will he do second or better in? again, if he finishes as your thesis has been, a strong, establishment third in iowa, he could then bounce out of iowa and finished second in new hampshire. that is the marco rubio scenario. i understand ontario why an establishment republican would like marco rubio for that reason. mark: how durable are donald trump and ted cruz right now. could one or both of them have a collapse? i don't think so. termsare fundamentals in of resources, message, following, and delegate strategy, so powerful, but the other question is say that our scenario plays out, could it be

at that point that the establishment says, we are betting all on one guy, everybody is getting out, and to heck with momentum. we are going to fight on. we will start running favorite sons, if we need to. i think that is possible, but ted cruz and donald trump are momentum candidates, and they have momentum now, and they know how to take momentum and keep going. john: they are two candidates most impervious -- we had to rip open debates, iowa and south carolina, they are the two handed it's the most impervious to screwing up in a debate. you will see these candidates desperate to make a moment where those guys because they have momentum on the ground they can play four corners offense in the trump, itnd donald

does not matter what he does on the debate stage. as panicked as the establishment was, this might make it worse. what came first the chicken or the egg? what i learned about the puzzle from donald trump supporters yesterday after this word from our sponsors. ♪

mark: interesting thing happened yesterday. i went to a donald trump rally in arizona. spent someame in, i time talking to trump supporters who were very enthusiastic to say the least. i chatted with them about why

they like donald trump and what they were doing there at the event and why they thought he was winning and whether they thought it was possible that the republican establishment could stop donald trump. then donald trump got up to speak and it was déjà vu all over again. knowere is one thing we about this unpredictable front runner is that his fans know how to stay on message even before they hear the candidate deliver the message in person from the stage. the reason is because they have heard it all before again and again and again. what are you doing here today? >> make america great again. >> we are really getting more and more on board with donald trump. >> the only reason i came here was because of donald trump. >> what are some adjectives you would use? >> bold. >> forceful. >> strong. >> we need strong people. >> he is a businessman. >> i am a world-class business guy. >> capable of handling the

country like a business. >> that's the thinking we need in this country. >> wire you hear? -- why are you here? >> $19 trillion in debt. >> $19 trillion in debt. >> i think i admire that he is not politically correct. >> it is not politically correct , but it will save everybody's life. >> what are some issues that are attractive to you? >> immigration. >> we will stop illegal immigration. >> we have to figure out what the hell is going on. >> he will make the military strong again. >> we will make the military so strong. >> the fact that he says he will take care of the veterans. >> we will take care of our vets. i'meing a military man,

sick and tired of the way the v.a. treats our veterans. >> our veterans are being mistreated so badly, it is horrible. >> they used to think of us in such high regard. >> they have respect for our country. >> now it's like were looked down upon. >> we don't have that anymore. we are not respected by anyone anymore. >> i think you would intimidate other countries. , we don't wantis to let other people take advantage of us. >> he doesn't have any money from some bunch of hooligans. >> he is funding himself. >> i am so funded, ok. i am putting up my own money. >> key is not traditional. he's not obliged to anybody else if the type of person we need to change things. >> have you seen him in person before? >> no, we cannot wait. sorry. mark: never had an expense like

that in my whole career going to a political event. all the interviews took place before the rally. they like him for the exact message he is projecting. they have internalized it and believe it. it is why trump says he has a movement to you have a leader and like-minded citizens. john: there have been of friday of times where i thought donald trump reminded me of pat buchanan, he had a great stump speech, and the people knew there was a cultural war going on and they would say the same thing. the always analogized to grateful dead, where people show pirit of, they not only know the lyrics, but they're overjoyed to be there in a carnival-like setting. not everyone i spoke to

agreed with everything donald trump said could sometimes they admit that he goes a little too far. any of thed them if recent controversies bothered them, they shrugged it off and said that is donald being donald. as he done anything where you said, i like them, but he should not have done that. >> a few times. >> what kind of things? do you remember? >> i wish he would not have done that. that cause me pause. you don't need to do that. you're great enough. you don't need to make fun of people. saying is what he is good, he just has a bad delivery. maybe the facial expressions, everything else is good. >> i think in a certain realm y, bute is a little cock he has been successful. >> he is human. have a that doesn't

couple of skeletons in their closet, they're not telling you the truth. mark: trump flaws priced into the stock. they don't like everything, but they like the upside. john: it's not just that. even the things that he says that they think are objectionable, they admire the fact that he's willing to say them and he's not just a scripted candidate. mark: incredible. up next, we talked to one of the generals in the koch brothers army. he joins us right here after this commercial break. ♪

john: our first guest tonight is the president of americans for

prosperity, the conservative group backed by the kochs. tim phillips, thanks for coming to the show. i want to start talking about super pac's a little bit. the prevailing wisdom coming into this race was they matter a lot. so far, they seem to have left almost no mark. what do you make of the super pac phenomenon? tim: i think a lot of donors are going to give a second thought to super pac investments. they are sure to -- short-term strictly, and you cannot hold them accountable as an owner. i think a lot of donors are going to look back at the summer of 2014 with some regret. summer of 2015, i'm sorry. john: do you think that is particularly true for candidates like jeb bush where a lot of money has been spent already to negligible affect? >> i think about the bush

campaign, the walker campaign, but i think a lot of donors will rethink their approach. spending 1000f groups every week and doing it 6-8 weeks to moves numbers -- move numbers, it's just not true anymore. for anyone. that is not specific to spendin. no one has been able to move numbers. mark: do you know where charles and david coke -- koch are? tim: i don't. i don't have any inside information. mark: your donor community, how do they feel about the prospect of donald trump as a nominee? tim: you would have to ask them. for mr. trump, the key for him and dr. carson, those two folks who aren't known for their policy -- they don't have a record of voting -- the important thing is going to be as specific as possible with what they will do on tax policy. i think trump and dr. carson

need to do more of that. at least rubio and cruz have records we can look at. mark: most people in the donor network are business people. thinkn't business people a businessman would be good for president? why isn't there a groundswell to say, we've got a successful businessman? tim: they look for policies. they say, what are you going to do with government overspending? it's more about the policy than the bio. what hasn't he been specific enough on? tim: i think probably government spending and budgetary priorities, government cronyism. what are you going to do about solar handouts or natural gas handouts? that's a big issue that is getting bigger among free-market donors. it's helpful to have a voting record to look at so you are not just looking at statements of what i'm going to do. it's a combination of those things.

i think one of the more surprising things for a lot of folks is that business people, it is thrilling to see a business person run, but they do want to see the policy agenda and have confidence that you can carry it out. john: let me press you a little bit. we hear from the establishment all the time who are panicked about the notion of trump or cruz being the nominee. i know you are not saying it's a blanket statement among donors, but there must be some fingertip sense that the business leaders who are big donors are pleased with the notion of donald trump or like the rest of the establishment, kind of freaked out. of the are staying out primary. we have proven that with our actions. we are not trying to influence it. we have had candidates who have come to different seminars or events, and perhaps, that gives a sense of who the board looks set in says, that's pretty free market. mark: your network has thought a entities, some

specifically related to winning more hispanic voters to the conservative cause. what have these candidates done in the context of the campaign to make it more likely that the eventual nominee will get a higher percentage of the hispanic vote then mitt romney did? tim: i think they are doing a better job of living and breathing in the latino community. one of the worst words in the political arena is outreach. what does that tell you? i don't like that word. it ought to be, let's be in those communities. let's sell our ideas day in and day out. doing ae candidates are good job? tim: the conservative movement and individual candidates. tim: i am thinking more in terms of americans for prosperity. has done aco rubio lot of events in the latino community. i think jeb bush has done a lot

of events. donald trump has had latinos speak at many of his events. i can't give you a good judgment. i can tell you our network is determined long-term to impact the community and impact the latino community by helping them understand why economic freedom is the best path to the american dream, and we have our work cut out for us. the facts are on our side. mark: with the work you've done the last few years, will it have an impact on the 2016 cycle, or is a longer-term project? tim: i think it's a longer-term project. you have to build relationships where there is mutual trust and respect before anyone listens to you. john: i don't mean to say incredulous, but you are maybe the only republican i know who thinks two things are true, that republicans need to fix their position with hispanics and thinks that this group of candidates are accomplishing that.

i've not heard anybody make that before,. just on the merits and numbers we have seen, it seems like the party has done nothing except step backward from where we were in 2012. tim: that is a fair point. i am best qualified to speak on what our network is doing. we have a long-term determination to sell individual freedom in economic the latino community and every community. i know there is a lot of talk about trying to reach the latino community. i'm not the best qualified to be able -- to determine whether or not we are succeeding, but there is talk about how important it is. for us, it's a long-term endeavor. lots ofere is talk in circles about you all spending close to $1 billion not on the campaign but program activities, politics, things related to politics. are you on track to spend that $1 billion? tim: what you said is so important. it's not about some campaign.

it's erroneous reporting. mark: are you on track to spend that $1 billion? tim: we like where we are financially. donors look at us and say, they are held accountable by businessmen and businesswomen on boards, so the investment is going to be spent the way they say it's going to be spent. that gives us a great advantage long-term in the financial community. i think we are on track. john: tim phillips, thank you for coming in. mark: the $1 billion man. john: i need to borrow some money. up next, we've got paul ryan's pitch on government spending and what house republicans are saying about his leadership. ♪

john: it is the holiday season, which means it is time for the congress to fight like a drunk dysfunctional family over how to a $1 trillion spending bill. the house is expected to vote trillion a $1.5 funding measure. here to talk us through paul ryan's strategy is our very own saw whole cup or -- sahil kapur. tell us right now what is the state of play. >> right now, paul ryan and nancy pelosi, with the approval of the white house and senate democratic and republican leaders, have struck a deal that would keep the government funded through september 2016. it would adhere to spend in levels but speaker boehner and democrats and the white house agreed to read before the

previous speaker jumped ship, and what this would do is a policy- attach some riders, such as ending a four-decade-long ban on oil exports. they are waiting for congress to vote. there is some pushback on some of these provisions, but it seems likely that this will pass. i am fascinated by the public relations effort the speaker has been engaged in. he has built a very big and strong team of pr specialists. they put out a lot of press releases, and for instance, they have adopted this hashtag, #confidentamerica. seeing, ryan is succeeding with conservatives and in a bipartisan way. this notion of confidence, i wonder how you see the effort to shape the rhine image differs from the quality and quantity

from the boehner speakership. sahil: i think you're absolutely right. paul ryan is a media savvy person. he has many media-savvy people around him. he will continue to do that in his futures. he's been a vice presidential nominee. he has been in congress since his 20's. he may have presidential ambitions. he is thinking about the bigger picture here. in terms of breaks from speaker boehner, there were two interesting breaks i came by. one, he is engaging in a lot more communication with the right flank. relations had gotten so frosty between john boehner and the right flank that they ground to a halt. ryan is texting with members. he is making his chief of staff available for questions large and small. this is making a huge difference for a number of people on the right flank. the freedom caucus said very nice things about ryan.

they may not like the final product of this deal because it was ultimately a bipartisan deal, but they had knife -- nice things to say about ryan in the process. ryan is doing, he is setting expectations very well. you noticed there was no flareup , no debate over a government shutdown. the cause that the right was pushing, using this to block funding for syrian refugees, ryan didn't insist on this because he knew it wasn't going to happen. john: one of the things people said was that the underlying dynamics when ryan took over the speakership, the underlying dynamics were still very much present, and eventually, he would have to deal with insurrection. what is it, beyond the things you just said, to the extent that things have changed, what has changed at the deeper level, or does the caucus see itself invested in ryan's success in some deeper way? so.l: i don't think i think what the conservatives

in the house republican our results.nt they aren't going to get results with president obama in the white house. right now, we are in this interesting period where paul ryan has only been speaker seven weeks. he has built up a reservoir of goodwill and strong relations with the right flank of his party. he's in a bit of a honeymoon period. bake --lize that the the cake was baked for this omnibus spending deal, so they are giving him more room to operate and maneuver. next year, that is going to change. the question is how how well he manages expectations. john: always great to have you on the show. up next, states are trying to block his panic voters from reaching the ballot box. we will talk about that with an expert on the subject in 60 seconds. ♪

mark: a big story today about the disenfranchisement of hispanic voters in some republican-dominated states in the country. it is part two of an ongoing series about the importing issue of voting rights.the author of that piece, jim rutenberg, is here with us. tell us broadly what this series aims to do. to do is lookims at the supreme court decision elby and shall be -- sh how it changed voting around the country, especially in states that used to get extra coverage under the voting rights act.

mark: that decision took away years of a very elaborate series of scrutiny that the justice department put on a lot of states who were freed from that level of scrutiny. what effect do the people most concerned about that decision, what do they see it having? jim: i think what they saw our new voting laws that they say a fax of, that disproportionately impacts minorities, and these are laws that if they had been passed before the decision, they would've been blocked. maybe they would've gone forward. now they go forward, and courts have to catch up. what do those laws do, and is it on purpose that they disenfranchise some groups more than others, or is it not by design? jim: the law didn't care if it was on purpose. the law was, if minority voting rights grow, or are they being knocked back down, the effect. proving intent is superhard. that wasn't the key thing.

always loath to ascribe motives, but you see where it happens. in the texas story i just wrote, you see where a law was changed in a way that helps somebody politically in a significant way. john: let's talk about the story that just came out this weekend. it's called "blocking the vote." texas has to be one of the most fascinating states in the country. for several cycles, democrats have said, demographics are on our side. the hispanic population is growing, and when it grows to a certain extent, texas is going to go blue. jim: that's very important. hispanics voting, the turnout is very low. when you see these data journalists rendering, it's going to turn blue or purple here, what we instead decided to do was say, what if turnout stays low? it takes longer for texas to become competitive. hispanic voting rates are very low in texas, black -- back to

where jim crow was for black toers, which i was surprised see. if it rises, it is super competitive. if not, it stays. john: what is the reason for why those rates are so low in texas? jim: there are several. it's not in hispanic culture to vote, and there are a few different reasons. some people came from countries where there were oppressive regimes. some people came here and said, i got my citizenship, but i don't want to rock the vote. i'm sure there are social scientists who are smarter about it. when you put in these things, you need an id -- maybe they have the id, but they are like, i don't know if i have it. they won't show up. you have to prove your registration -- citizenship when you register. there's a lot going on. mark: when you look at elections in this country, there's always an undue focus on the presidential, but the things we're talking about a fax state

state races.ct how will this affect the presidential race? jim: in 2016, i think it potentially matters. there are three swing states that can do whatever they want basically on voting laws that you couldn't have in the last election. those states are virginia, north carolina, and florida. -- they arena is very important, but virginia, you've got mcauliffe in. i think north carolina is the one that concerns democrats the most, but the bigger fight is going to be in the out years when demographic start changing. maybe some of these deep south red states -- the voting rights act mostly covered red states. you are going to see a lot of action in non-section 5 states. mark: tell me about some characters in your's -- in your

piece. jim: my favorite character is a man named oscar del potro. he lives in a town where voting laws changed to set back hispanic strength. he said, you know what? i'm going to run for this office that is hard for me to win to show the anglo power structure that i am here and i'm going to compete. he is as pew are a part -- from what i can tell, so i'm a reporter -- he seems as pure a heart as i've seen. john: you did an earlier piece in the series that looked at an african-american community in the south. ins now about hispanics texas. compare and contrast, in terms of the cultural factors, the legal factors, in terms of voting, participation rates. jim: i've been thinking about that a lot. for black voters and black civil of as, it's got more story, and it's got more of a leadership.

there is a lot more strength in that movement. the hispanic voting rights movement is much more diffuse. an opening for republicans is, hispanics are not automatically republican. sociallybe conservative when they are very catholic. the church doesn't play the same row as it does in the black civil rights movement. i think that's a big deal. new york piece on the times website right now. jim rutenberg, thanks for joining us. we will be right back. ♪

john: after you finish watching the show, go to bloombergpolitics.com and check out our campaign tracker for the latest 2016 updates, along with fantastic story by our friend josh green about ted cruz's donald trump strategy. mark: tomorrow, president obama is headed to hawaii for his christmas vacation. he's going to stop in san bernardino, california and have a private meeting with families of the victims of the terrorist shooting. before he leaves washington, the president is planning to hold his year and press conference. we will keep an eye on all of that and all the other news in the political world. we will be back your tomorrow. john: do think he's going to be jovial? mark: mixed and measured. see you tomorrow. sayonara. ♪

emily: i am emily chang, and you are watching "bloomberg west." the republican-led house voted to approve more than $600 billion in compromise tax breaks.

it is part of a bipartisan pack that includes a $1.1 trillion bill finance and government agencies in 2016. congressional leaders hope to ship both bills to president obama tomorrow for his signature and adjourn for the year. president obama traveled to virginia to meet with officials from the national counterterrorism center. he updated the nation on the terror threat level. president obama: at this moment, our counterterrorism officials do not have any specific and credible information about an attack on the homeland. judge in the freddie gray trial met with prosecutors today for officer william porter to discuss a possible retrial. the judge declared a mistrial after jersey couldn't decide whether porter was to blame for gray's death. porter is one of six officers charged in gray's death. u.s., u.k., and france are going after islamic state money.