mark: i'm mark halperin. john: i'm john heilemann.. and with all due respect a bernie sanders, i'm a little disappointed you only did it twice, but at least you have. mark: hello and welcome to monday. an exciting new week in the u.s. presidential race. the red-hot republican contest. a little bit of latebreaking news affecting the race overall. former new york city mayor, michael bloomberg, who owns this company, has decided not to launch an independent bid for the white house. we will have more on that in a moment. tomorrow, voters will head to

the polls, and this week also begins the final races for the march 15 contests, when florida and ohio vote, kicking off the winner take all portion. if donald trump cleans up on that day, very little can be done to stop him from winning the nomination, which is maybe why his rival and their allies have opened the floodgates of to the attack ads. here's a sample of just some of the antitrust commercials invading the living rooms. >> former students say trump university was a scam. >> trump supports eminent domain abuse. >> using bankruptcy laws to avoid paying loans. >> dodged the draft in vietnam. >> illegal immigrants. >> trump refuses to denounce the kkk. >> he has a record, and it is very liberal. >> universal health care. >> i will take care of everybody. >> erratic. unreliable.

>> traffic convictions. mafia ties. therse were his business associates. mark: that is a lot of negativity. on saturday, he split for contests with ted cruz. news agencies continue to up their scrutiny of the front runner. trump campaigne faced stories about his trump university court documents, and for officials concerned with his colleaguesnd our wrote a story about chinese investors against the trump will inf a new jersey. will talk about that later. but john, the ultimate question about anyone trying to become president -- is donald trump losing control of his public image? john: he is in danger of that right now, in a way that has not been true at any other time, and i will tell you why. it's not just that there is negative tv, but a lot of money

behind it, and not just because the press has amped up its scrutiny. it is because he has started to look like he is not a winner. winner is the key to his public image, and his performance on saturday in those contests made it clear he is vulnerable, and on her body is not what he wants to project. mark: one of the other campaigns was talking about calling him a loser. you will see over the next few days the fruits of their labor. the virtuous cycle from their point of view; opposition research to news organizations will write stories, and the stories will show up in nats. -- in ads. mr. trump is still in the drivers seat to be the nominee, but he will have to perform well. he's now facing in florida, fighting back, but he is facing a bigger onslaught with more confident opposition that he has faced to date. john: and more than we expected 72 hours ago, i have to say, the

combination of those races on saturday, his decision to pull cpac -- he hasf the a lost control but the pressure is on in a way he has never felt before. mark: they've have settled on two memes; that he is a con man and that he is crude, and he will have to find a way to fight back. in the final sprint to march 15, a lot of attention has shifted to florida, where marco rubio is making a last stand. new university poll out that shows florida trailing by just eight points. ted cruz is at third place with 17%. instead of allowing it to men fight between little mark: and donald,ig allies are ramping up the ante trump efforts in a attemptn

to do something. what is ted cruz up to? is underhink ted cruz the impression that marco rubio may not be able to win, and his people have been straightforward. they say they will only play in states where they think they have a chance to win. i can't imagine that if the polls are tightening in the way -- if rubio is trailing only within the margin of error, i can't imagine why the cruz campaign would go into florida. but if they think that rubio is doomed, it makes sense for them to get into that contest. the question is how weak is rubio? if that poll is accurate, it suggests he has a chance to win. mark: we will see where it is. i think there are two things -- one, maybe he can find a way to win a three-way contest, because john kasich will not be a factor. all that matters in florida is winning the popular vote; there is no other way to get delegates. the other possibility is to knock rubio out.

while there are those of the party who think the more the merrier, cruz's strategy is predicated on getting hit down to him versus john -- getting it down to him versus trump, and the way to do that is to not rubio out. he's got to keep trump from getting a win in florida and ohio. they believe this is a smart plan and they think they could win the state. john: i guess. i agree with you -- i think they are overestimating their ability to win the overall delegates battle here down the line, given the weakness of cruz's position and the states or he would be going one-on-one with trump. if trump wins florida and then ohio, i'm not sure there's a chance that cruz has, looking for him to knock trump out. mark: after trump lost three or five contests over the weekend, "the wall street journal" read "the gop race isn't over." john kasich was not mentioned

anywhere in that piece. amid all the talk of rubio dropping out, we keep hearing media colleagues jump straight to trunk/cruise. -- to trump/cruz. while the ohio governor did not do well, and to still has zero wins, he did get a celebrity endorsement -- arnold schwarzenegger announced his support. it seems to be playing big in michigan, where he has a chance to do well. there is a new poll in michigan that chose kasich in third-place, moving up to 21%, ahead of rubio and within the margin of error on the silver. so john, why does the media continue to ignore or discount kasich's chances of making it to the final? john: a lot of it has to do with these poll numbers. let's not let the kasich campaign -- which i have taken seriously and i know you have --

let's not let that move the goal post. john weaver talked about coming to michigan and winning, and right now, john kasich is still a long way from being competitive. >> [phone ringing] john: if those polls are accurate, the press is right to discount the possibility, because this is an important state. mark: it's important, but if kasich does well in michigan and wins ohio and rubio loses think kasich has a chance to be in this. it'not just the presss. -- it's not just the press. i have been stunned by how little the press is following kasich. he does have a chance, if he surprises michigan. michael --iersaid, as we said earlier, michael bloomberg decided not to run for president. he made the announcement moment

ago in a column. the clock is ticking for filing deadlines. bloomberg set aside his ambitions to get to the white data, "when i look at the it is clear to me that i could not win. i believe i could win in a number of diverse states, but not enough to win 270 electoral votes." so john, in the end, is that why the mayor decided to go with no go? john: i will say this not in a brown nosing way -- you and i have said all along that if this 2012,t we saw in 2008 and the only way you would get into this race is if we saw he saw a path to victory. with hillary as strong as she was, i was certain he would not run, just citing past history. i don't think you want to donald trump to be the president of the united states. as much progress he has of hillary clinton, he has more

with trump, and running would handed to him. mark: if you assume that rubio and kasich will not be the nominee, the mayor could have gotten in. he could have gone into a three-way contest, and while you could gain a possible path, the more likely thing is that you would give the white house over to either cruz -- which is not something he wants. he doesn't agree with hillary clinton on everything, but he knows if he got in he would, have to go all in and would spend a lot of money. the most likely outcome would be helping the republicans. we comeback, the fallout from last night's democratic debate in the wolverine state, after these words from our sponsors. ♪

john: hillary clinton's campaign has a new radio ad, which features a soundbite from last night's debate, in which she claims bernie sanders voted against the money used to bail out the detroit industry. sanders pushed back, calling her words "disingenuous." that when you vote against the bailout of wall street, and against the crooks on wall street who destroyed this economy, to suggest that voting against the automobile industry is very disingenuous, and especially incorrect. it may be good politics, but it happens to be incorrect. john: sanders has been clinton on

the airwaves highlighting his message against income inequality, that he is behind in latest polls. what clinton did to sanders last night was a classic political pulling on one element of a larger bill, but it is working. sanders was not doing as well as he needed to in michigan -- why is he not doing better? john: i think he is doing better than we think. if you look at how they are doing, hillary clinton, chelsea clinton, bill clinton with late trips that no one expected, and a lot of democrats in michigan noted that and said they must have seen something in their polling that sanders is doing better than public polling suggests. bernie sanders starts with the huge deficit in hillary clinton, and i think this may end up

being one of those races where, like nevada, if the campaign was a week or two weeks longer, sanders could win. but he is just going to run out of time is my guess. think she still has momentum and has not cracked the code. in a state where the clintons are better known, it's difficult for him to win. he has too much of a deficit. and he has not been able to spend as much time there and get his message. last night, i think you typified where he is -- he got some tactical points that are stronger than hers, and yet she comes in with -- i'm let's say she's the only one who does this -- but with a preplanned thing on the bailout. it dominates the media, and it's not a strategic win, just tactical. that's not enough. john: i agree. mark: sanders won three out of

four states over the weekend, but heading into tomorrow's primaries, clinton still has more than double the numbers of delegates than he has. that includes superdelegates. john, democrats have two more states voting tomorrow -- michigan and mississippi --and -- and five big states next week. if clinton stays on track, when can she effectively end this contest? ahn: on the republican side, lot is running on march 15. a different kind of stakes, but from hillary clinton's point of view, she can win michigan tomorrow. she'll then have a big win going into florida and ohio. she's favored by everyone to win in florida and ohio. if she wins florida and ohio, not only is it a matter of delegates, but is a symbolic matter. the race will be over in a

clearly, emphatically defective sense. democratic party doesn't do winner take all states, but if she wins big next week, the math will be decisive. i don't like what happens to candidates -- i do like that the press coverage dwindles when they lose. sanders thinks he is getting less coverage now -- just wait and see what happens in a week. think, as much as she has been dominating with superdelegates, if she wins all three of those big states, she will get even more superdelegates and the math will be difficult. mathematically impossible. john: they put out that memo over the weekend, pointing out that going into saturday's contest she had a bigger delegate lead, not even counting superdelegates. that was larger than barack

obama ever had over hillary clinton. i found that pretty compelling, and it will only get worse the sanders loses michigan, ohio, and florida. mark: coming up, takeout euro brawlers, because we break down a political downpour in the sunshine state after this. ♪

mark: the florida primary for the republican debate -- a huge battleground, and there are new political ads surfacing on the florida airways. the winner take all primary has a lot of spots targeting donald trump, and know someone marco rubio. we'll start with an anti-trump, fund."erica future

it features military veterans who expressed concern that john rn -- trump could >> he called prisoners of war losers. that is the most infuriating, and i have heard in my life. >> trump would not have survived a pow experience. he would have folded. >> i served multiple tours in afghanistan with the special forces. >> donald trump hasn't served this country a day in his life. he essentially. the draft in vietnam through multiple deferments. he has been fed through a silver spoon, went to boarding school, said it was so tough he felt like he was in the military. all donald trump has served as himself. mark: this ad goes through the commander in chief meme and is part of a larger thing as saying, trump is not a plausible president. we should make trump our president.

what do you think? john: i think whenever you can put military veterans in nan ad like this, making a strong, factually based accusation, it is always a very powerful technique. substantively, it's problematic for trump as part of a larger mosaic of things. mark: he did not release his promise list of national security advisers, and he's lucky that there is nobody in a commanding's national security prisons are this would hit him even harder. marco rubio is also on the wrong end of attack ads in his home state, including a series of ads from ted cruz's super pac hitting the florida senator on sugar subsidies.

>> for years, marco rubio has been making it snow for big sugar in washington. so-called conservative marco rubio has been taking your hard-earned tax dollars and paying his billionaire buddies who run big sugar. did you know the actual is run by the same billionaires who funded marco rubio's political career? you know who else practices this kind of corporate cronyism? hillary clinton. marco rubio: the king of corporate welfare. isn: that same super pac also blasting him on immigration. >> three years ago, in a debate, you are clear on this. you said an earned pathway -- but you have changed your mind. why? >> you support a path to citizenship for those who are here illegally? >> i do. >> if you don't want to run on things, don't run for the senate. >> rubio talks up his national

security experience, but did you know he skipped 18 defense votes, including ones to fight isis? marco rubio: absent on national defense. mark: florida is a state where negative ads have history of working. what do you think? inn: they seem strange to me the sense that they feel like the kind of ads that should have been run against rubio two months ago, three months ago, back in the fall. timeseem strangely out of and out of context, given the tenor of the conversation about marco rubio now and the ways in which he seems to be losing altitude, because of the way he has conducted himself in the last week or 10 days. it seems strangely like ads out keeping and not as in

with where we are in the conversation i've they might otherwise be. mark: remember, this is a closed republican primary. this is a state that is older and gets a lot of information from fox news. with that in mind, take a look at this new donald trump campaign ad. 0-second spot, and it calls into question the florida senator's ethics. >> corrupt marco rubio has spent years defrauding the people of florida. slipped on aor, he key vote after making a quick $100,000 to selling his house for the mother of the bill. he was the republican party's he gotcard and when caught he said he used the wrong credit card, that he used the same card between miami and tallahassee, then bill the state for the same airline tickets and

pocketed the cash until, once again, he got caught. has been it all, rubio a total no-show in the u.s. senate with the worst footing record of all. marco rubio: another corrupt, all talk, and no action politician. >> i'm donald trump, and i approve this message. mark: we don't know how much money he is putting behind it, but it is clear that people are happy to see him hit. ruzs being hit by cu allies and the trump campaign. john: negative ads that go to character, if they are done well, are more effective than ones that go to ideology. with do you think? mark: well, there is a new anti-trump ad that shows that using profanity, which will be effective. it will be a cacophony.

i still think the debate on thursday is the bigger deal than any of these ads, but if i am rubio, i am concerned that the rubio allies have upped their buy. they are being hit by two people, trump by lots of people, cruz not by anybody. when we come back, the inside scoop on how michigan democrats viewed the race. we'll talk to congressman debbie dingell, a clinton supporter, after this. ♪

john: our next guest is an amazingly popular figure in

mission. that in michigan. that is debbie dingell. she has represented the 12th district. you have a long history in michigan politics. thank you for coming. tell me what you think about the democratic debate flint after last night and the democratic primary. you are a big hillary clinton supporter. understanding where you are coming from, what do you see? i think the numbers in the polls are not reflective. worked thenie has state intensely. that has gotten people excited. winink hillary clinton will tomorrow when the voting occurs, but he has been working the state hard and is getting a lot of people excited. i think you will see that.

donald trump is going to win the republican primary. john: it seems to me that if there is any state that is tailor-made for the sanders message, this should be that state. the polls have shown him back by 25 points. there are a few showing him getting a little closer. i am a little surprised that he has not caught on more here given the travails of the economy, given the anti-trade message. he has done some big events here. are you at all surprised it has taken him so long to get traction? rep. dingell: no, because people have not focused on who he is or what he is talking about or his message has not gotten out until he went on air with his ads. this is analytical. in order for people to hear what you are talking about, you have to see it. it took paid media. he has more earned media than since he first did his zoom in at the dearborn uaw rally. get as a political

observer you see chelsea clinton, bill clinton, hillary clinton all here over the weekend. i look atl me stupid, that and say that is a family that might be concerned about what the state of play is in this race and the polls may be a little more generous to hillary clinton than the reality is. rep. dingell: you are anything but stupid. you and your partner are two of the finest political minds that i know. iniously, they would not the the state if they weren't concerned, but i think it is good because i think their presence starts to give it the emotion they need to have, to have that momentum. i think she did a very good job with the debate last night. hardis a state that had times, has really been burned by idealism. governor snyder, popular governor but talked a good game but it became a disaster because

he was not someone who had real world experience. he had to combine the business and the political world. i think you will see that translate into tomorrow josh vote. both candidates have shown same values. a lot more substantive than the republican side, who talked more the male anatomy more than auto issues. the word auto did not come up. john: a lot of things came up, but not auto. rep. dingell: that was very good. this is a woman who knows how to the deliver. john: if you boil down sanders message, he goes back to the 90's. he says nast, calf the on trade. he says the root -- he says the repeal of glass-steagall. those are three things that a lot of democrats in the state

are receptive to. what is the answer if you are hillary clinton? oil down to that. how does she effectively answer those, which are cutting critiques? rep. dingell: she needs to be very strong, which he did. she talked about the economy and for actually fighting for men and women and that they take care of everybody, that you create jobs for everybody. a sort of walter luther message. if you go way back, the henry ford message about people are building cars and making income and they can afford to buy a car. that is what she was talking about. she was strong in telling that she would oppose the tpp, which is the latest trade agreement. i worked for general motors when nafta went through. we knew we were in a global marketplace. a, we have to complete in the mobile market pace -- global marketplace and you need to

compete. donald trump is a businessman. i am one of the strongest leaders in congress against tpp? john: how long did it decide -- did it take you to decide to go against tpp? rep. dingell: not long. john: it looks transparently political to some people. rep. dingell: it would appear that way, but i have had a discussion with her and she gets it. this is a woman who picked up the phone and said, what do i do? what do i need to know? i think she has been respect last having been secretary of state. it is someone who brings is a very seasoned, someone who is ringing experience. i think she is someone who -- undercutt undercu a person she worked for. she did oppose the tpp several months ago. john: she tried to hit bernie sanders against the

export-import bank. rep. dingell: it is probably not the most of orton. it is important -- not the most important. it is important to smaller businesses. she really was one of the leaders in 2008 on the auto -- i don't want to use bailout. it was the backbone of the american economy. if the auto industry had gone down, devastation in the country. john: bernie sanders has spent a lot of time in your district. did on of the things he the debate stage last night strike you as -- some women reacted badly to the tone he used. rep. dingell: i think they have the same value. i did not like his attitude last night. he got very short and very disrespectful. surprise me is i think he was surprised when she

talked about his not supporting the auto bailout and that is something that he should have been prepared for in debate prep. i think he was a bit taken aback. john: tried to clean it up today. debbieto congresswoman dingell. we have donald trump and the trump tower. we have the chinese and their relationship to the building. jesse drucker. all of which comes after these messages. ♪

mr. trump: the greatest abuse of a country abuse is china.

it is the greatest single theft in the world. they have taken our jobs, they are taking our money. we are bringing our jobs back. mark: that was from last month with donald trump ripping on one of his favorite targets. turns out that eight from-branded power in new jersey is being funded largely by a government program that allows foreign investors to skip ahead in the immigration line and get a visa in return for investments. totally legal, but if you spend your days a night's railing against china, it could be a problem. joining us is jesse drucker. lane this program -- explain this program called eb five. jesse: if you have half $1 million and you are seeking a green card, the u.s. has a qualifying to for film and projects, if you are willing to put $500,000 into the

project, you can get a two-year visa, that if everything works out with the project, you will what amounts to permanent residency for you and your family. the program has been around for around 25 years. it has really started to take off in the last five or six years. developers love it as it has turned into basically a cheap form of financing for high-end real estate developments because the applicants come up the folks that want the visas that are putting up $500,000, aren't really interested in getting a return, they just want to get the green card. what has happened the last few years is the government as given out tens of visasnds of pieces -- through this program. it overwhelmed the government. last year the government gave out 10,000 visas and 85% were from people to china. mark: tell us about this project

and the extent to the program being used. jesse: five or six years ago, a developer licensed a trump name and built a high-rise luxury condo minimum -- condominium development called trump plaza. jared kushner, who is married to trump's daughter, announced they would build a sister property. a nearly identical tower that will be luxury rentals. as will be called trump bay street. donald trump for the last 25 years has developed and build few buildings. his real estate is this is a business of license and -- licensing his name to other developers. we don't know what the financial arrangement is between him and his son-in-law, but he is using the trump name on the building

that he is building. the -- 1/4 of the financing is coming from the eb5 program. essentially they provide $50 million in loans to help build this building. mark: i think you said it is about a quarter of the financing of the building. why take the money from china? is this the only place this project can find enough investment to build? jesse: i think one of the reasons the program is very popular is because it is basically free money. the investors don't really want a return on their invest in. they want the green card. you might have to borrow for a bank at 8% or 10%. with these investors you can essentially give them no return. it's like getting 1/4 of your

financing for no return. the reason it is of interest is that the department of homeland security and gao have raised about the inadequacy of the screening process of where the money comes from. they argue it could enable money laundering. two years ago, there was an internal department of homeland security memo that was read on the senate floor that raised these very questions. just a few months ago, the gao followed up with a similar request to mark: we have to go in a second. there is nothing elite -- nothing illegal about this program. trump could argue that this is good business. he is getting investment for a project that does not require anything much from them and does not have to pay the same rate of return. jesse: that is true. he is raising money through a government program that government overseers u.s. troubled and could be enabling

dirty money to enter the country. mark: more due diligence coming up. jesse, thanks very much. coming up, steak. you will see what i mean in a moment. ♪

the stakes in this election are really high, so last night on "the circus, we featured a dinner that mark mckinnon and i attended with hardened veteran republicans at

a steakhouse in the washington dc area. to get their sizzling takes and what is exactly happening with their party. >> everybody around this table that i know, we have been in every cap -- every presidential campaign since 1980 in varying degrees. in trump's problem, you don't know what his compass is. >> how problematic is that for the future of the party? over, it is is usually problematic. >> why don't you republicans do something about this guy? >> i am sorry. this is not the soviet union. you can't call a meeting and decide trump is out. >> and we hate that. [laughter] >> trump is doing well for one reason. he understands the climate and culture of america today better

than any businessman. mark: how do you feel about that? the republican nominee may be someone none of you know. >> shellshocked. bewilder. republicans are a hierarchy. >> we fall in line and trump has interrupted that cycle. >> donald trump, no one thought he was a political leader until six months ago. he is not poised, he is not informed. all he has going for him is a lot of votes. here we are. i think everyone is buying into that he can't be stopped. i think he can. mark: what are you planning on doing to stop them? [laughter] >> we are working on it. >> we were effective in iowa, and that was enough to knock him into second. katie packer. mark: what is your role in that

pac? >> it is a matter of public record. what we are facing is a choice between hillary and trump. mark: what you saying? >> vote for the lease of two evils. >> you know for sure trump would be a better president than hillary clinton? >> no, but it is a risk i would be putting -- i'm willing to take. >> if the party splits, it will not come back together. mark: you care more about him being president? >> i am scared if he is president. deport 12 million people, border, it is so violent compared to what i believe about america and the public party. >> i travel a lot and trump is a laughingstock. the world is at peace with hillary clinton.

supreme court nominee will have at least four years at minimum. you want to give that to her? >> what does that mean? >> you are right. >> i have never voted for democrat. i've never voted for anyone other than a republican in the united states. that episode of "the circus" is online now. if you subscribe to showtime, you can watch it. what is your take on the establishment as we enter this new week and few the chances of stopping trump? john: on the base of everything, i can tell that their chances have increased a little bit and they must be feeling happy. the money is flowing. of adsill be of bunches trying to take trump.

the big thing is the dividing line in the establishment between those who are more worried about what would trump would do as the nominee and what he would be like as president and those who say we should try all cost evenat if we disinfect a large number of voters because having him as a nominee with redefined the party in a way that would do long-term damage to the party. mark: there is a lot of regret gone the way things have and why they did not move to stop trump sooner. that longtime pollster it has just now started during up to stop trump. there is an effort in new hampshire in particular, which might have allowed an establishment candidate to do better. john: there is no question that if trump becomes the nominee, there will be a lot of looking back. thehat is the kind of

location of your comment, is happening back in october, november. it would be a different race. mark: there is no denying that that is a group of very smart people who all happen to be older white man, and that is representative of the establishment. they are aware. they are aware that the country is seeing this race different it inhe sea at -- see front of the ways. they are creatures of their habitat. john: they have a long-term problem. no matter what happens to trump, the people who compelled trump the a rapport with republican base and that is something the people in that room do not understand well. mark: the show we do on showtime is on sunday night at 8:00. what is the correct name for tomorrow's series of primaries? ♪

mark: who won the day? john: i will be accused of sucking up because the guy writes our paychecks. mike bloomberg won the day because he realized rationally that he was not likely to win, and because of that, decided not to do this and kept himself from getting engulfed in the mayhem and chaos that is the presidential race. mark: hillary clinton wins the day. she comes out of the debate in a strong position and bernie in the totally amassed issue of voting against the auto bailout. if you are having trouble coming up with a name for it, here is some help. >> the sprint is on for another

super tuesday. >> think of it as super tuesday junior. >> super tuesday part two. >> super tuesday, take two. >> super-super tuesday. >> super tuesday, round two. >> super tuesday number two. >> just hours before super tuesday, the sequel. >> this time it's personal. mark: you're welcome, america. coming up on "bloomberg west," emily chang sits down with jeff weiner. we will see tomorrow. sayonara. ♪

mark: you are watching "bloomberg west." 12 chinese families with relatives aboard missing malaysia airlines flight 370 have filed a lawsuit in a beijing court a day to hide -- a

day before the deadline for litigation. the families of other passengers filed a separate lawsuit in malaysia. north korea is making more threats. seoul begin their annual springtime wargames today. a list is planned to be released of those killed in drone and counterterrorism strikes in the last seven years. coverst is believed to any combatants and militants who have died. michael bloomberg has decided not to enter this year's residential race. he writes "as the race stands now with republicans in charge of all houses of congress, there is a good chance that my candidacy would lead to the election of donald trump or senator ted cruz. that is