mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. with all due respect to ohio, it is pretty nice to be in florida right now. i am here on the beautiful coast of west palm beach, florida. while mark, my friend, is land-locked, and is having a john kasich town hall. he wants a rock, paper, scissors rematch. the sunshine and buckeye states are two of the five states voting on tuesday, which could be the difference between donald

trump locking up the nomination and the battle for delegates going all the way to the summer. marco rubio and john kasich are facing single elimination contests in their home states. marco rubio spoke about how voters in ohio should be thinking strategically about the best way to stop the donald. mr. rubio: clearly, john kasich has a better chance of winning ohio than i do. if a voter in ohio concludes that voting for john casey gives us a better chance of stopping donald trump there, i anticipate that is what they will do. john: given a chance to return the favor, john kasich's campaign did not go for the hug. quote "we were going to lose in ohio." meanwhile, donald trump is going

hard after john kasich in this new web video. [video clip] john kasich has been an absentee governor. gave ohio obamacare and increased the budget more than any other governor in the u.s. we don't need him in washington. john kasich, just another no-talk, no-work politician. john: after john kasich helped the lehman brothers destroy the world economy, he decided to run for governor. he has been an absentee governor, working everywhere but ohio. he increased the budget more than any other governor in the u.s. we don't need him in ohio, and we certainly don't need him in washington.

mark: this is clearly a tale of difference between john kasich and marco. let me tell you where i am. i am at a plant that is a john kasi success story, according to his office. it's a gm plant that got shuddered. a chinese company came in and hired 700 employees. they are expected to add a couple hundred thousand year. the ohio economy is in fact pretty good. if you talk to people in john kasich-land and john kasich, they will say we are winning ohio. we know the numbers, we have never lost in this state. we are going to win. talk to the rubio people, and he will say i am going to win. but it doesn't take much to get them to say well, we will see if we are going to win. the rubio people are trying to win, but both sides agree it's binary. win and stay alive, lose and stay home. john: that kind of explains the difference in their attitudes. rubio has the attitude where he is basically saying i know i don't have a chance in ohio.

don't have a chance in ohio. my strategy is to have a bunch of people stay alive to keep trump from getting the majority of delegates. that is also john kasich strategy, but he wants rubio out of the race. he believes he can take on trump in a one-on-one race or a three on one race with ted cruz. i think you are right. rubio's in trouble. it's not impossible he could win, but he is in trouble. john kasich is a very popular governor. i believe his approval rating is close to 70% and he won reelection with close to 60%. but we have seen some polling lately that suggests that trump is in a statistical tie with him. mark: i will say team kasich will be delighted if they win and rubio loses.

last night's republican debate in florida was unrecognizable to those of us who may have been expecting another insult invested donald trump pile on. check out this miller versus trump clip.

>> you did a great job with bush. you did a great job representing brush. mark: so, john, tim miller is up and trump's grill, but is anybody else involved in a stop trump movement or trying to actually stop trump? john: we should start calling tim miller don quixote miller because he is tilting at a pretty big windmill. a lot of groups are spending money to try to stop trump in florida. in terms of voices, real people in the party calling for trump to be defeated, that noise, which started a little bit last week, has suddenly gone quiet

again. again. mark: it is going to take a concerted effort. tim miller told us he agrees it's going to take a candidate. it's going to take marco rubio john kasich, or ted cruz to stop him, echoing whatever stop trump arguments are out there, and right now, none of them are focused on that in his single-minded way. rubio and john kasich are just trying to win their states. john: where is paul ryan? where is mitch mcconnell? where are the leaders of the republican establishment if donald trump is such a menace? i would like to hear from them if they really believe that. this morning, trump announced the endorsement of his former campaign rival, dr. ben carson. that would be the same ben

carson he mocked shamelessly and mercilessly on stage, called pathological, and sort of compared to a child molester. carson he mocked shamelessly and mercilessly on stage, called pathological, and sort of compared to a child molester. today, carson called that all par for the course and urged the party to unite behind trump if he became the nominee. ben carson: i have come to know donald trump over the past few years. he is actually a very intelligent man who cares deeply about america. we buried the hatchet. that was political stuff. that happens in american politics. i have found in talking with him that there is a lot more alignment philosophically and spiritually than i ever thought there was. one of the real factors for me is what will happen if we allow the political operatives to succeed in their endeavor to

stop donald trump. i think it would fracture the party irreparably. john: mark, my question for you -- and i have so much to say about that, but my question for you is what is the significance of the carson endorsement? mark: saying he is a man of spirituality and faith is huge. carson still has a following who might listen to him and go with drum. three, carson has a huge facebook following. that's big. finally, it shows the trump campaign is underrated as a political force. corey lewis and mike glasser say he understands politics. if you do well in the debate, you keep riding the wave. if you do badly, you have the endorsement in your back pocket to change the narrative. it's a very smart group and they

have more endorsements sitting in the back pocket of donald trump. john: mark, you are a sophisticated analyst and there's nothing you said just now that i disagree with. i am a simpleton. trump now has a major governor, chris christie, a major senator, jeff sessions, and a major sleepwalker, ben carson. they have all endorsed him. mark: the other thing i will say is you have other people in this middle group, people like mitt romney unalterably opposed to trump. i think carson, along with chris christie, is starting to build this notion that whatever problems you have with him, whatever difficulties, whatever problems, it's ok to endorse him. if he wins all five states, four

or five, i expect next week will be filled with endorsements for donald trump. john: when we come back, that he said-she said that everybody in media and politics is talking about. ♪

john: yesterday on the show we talked about a reporter named michel fields and her claim that donald trump's campaign manager grabbed her arm and nearly

grabbed her arm and nearly forced her to the ground after a trump press conference on tuesday. today, this complicated, confusing story took a new turn. breitbart published a story saying she misidentified the man. this afternoon, another video emerged showing a different angle of the same moment and it seems to show him reaching toward the reporter. breitbart has also reported that fields filed a criminal complaint alleging misdemeanor battery charges. the trump campaign continues to deny the accusations. last night, trump spoke to katie couric about the alleged incident. >> breitbart is asking for an apology. you must have a good relationship with that company. have you apologized? mr. trump: you don't apologize if you are not wrong. >> she has bruises on her arm. mr. trump: tell me how they got there.

i have secret service agents all over. i have cameras all over. nobody saw it happen. nobody complained. i know this guy and he's a fantastic got a. >> if it comes to light that something did happen, will you apologize? >> if it comes to light that nothing happened, will you apologize? >> i won't apologize, but i will report that nothing happened, certainly. john: here to try to sort out the competing narratives is nbc's katie, who is in palm beach. oppresses fascinated about this. but is this a distraction for the trump campaign or do they not care? katie: definitely a distraction. they wanted to come out today talking about the endorsement of ben carson.

instead, the narrative is around the continued violence at his rallies and continued disruptions at his rallies. a gentleman yesterday sucker punched a guy at a rally in north carolina and got arrested for it. this alleged incident between this breitbart reporter and trump's campaign manager does not seem to be going away. now there are a lot of folks scouring the internet and trying to find video of that. each one show something along the lines of corey reaching toward michelle, although there is no smoking gun that shows him definitively grabbing her. but for the campaign, instead of talking about ben carson, they are talking about corey and this incident. will it matter to trump supporters? i don't think so. i don't think trump supporters are swayed by any of the

controversies that surround him or his campaign. the ones that like donald trum have liked donald trump for a while and are unwavering in their support. i was speaking to a voter i have been talking to since last october or november who says he really likes donald trump and nothing has swayed him. that between michelle fields and donald trump saying he hates islam, he says he is now starting to regret voting for donald trump in south carolina's primary. john: i want to ask you a more general question about your experience covering the trump campaign. you have been doing it since the beginning. at any point did you feel threatened, intimidated, afraid at any trump rallies, not just in terms of the rallies themselves, but in terms of how you were treated by the trump campaign?

katie: not how i am treated by the trump campaign. i will say the rallies have gotten tense at times and they have gotten a little unnerving at times. i think that has been widely reported in the press generally says that. i have had a lot of pleasant experiences with trump supporters who are lovely people, and i have had negative experiences. it can be unnerving when donald trump whips up the crowd against the press. it doesn't happen at every rally. some are worse than others. there have been a number of occasions when it has felt a little uncomfortable. you are reassured, essentially, by the fact that there are secret service there. it is definitely not a comfortable working environment when thousands of people are yelling at you and you are penned in the center of an arena. john: there is a campaign manager we cover every day and there is a colleague.

im trying to get at the question of who is telling the truth. mark: let me just ask you, if it wasn't corey, assuming someone did physically intervene here, who is the third man? any idea who might have done this if it wasn't corey lewandowski? katie: t campaign is pointing potentiallto one of the secret service agents. breitbart pointed to him earlier, saying that someone from the washington post might have confused corey lewandowski with a secret service agent who is also a white male with short brown hair. that could be at. i didn't see it. im not entirely sure what happened.

until there is definitive proof that he put his hand on her or did not put his hand on her, or that somebody else put his and on her, i think we have to wait and see what the police come u with when they are finished with their investigation. john: i'm going to ask you another broad question about how these rallies are playing out. someone got cold cocked at a trump rally a couple of days ago. there is a perception among some of the press at the rallies themselves have gotten increasingly violent. let me get your sense of whether that is true. has the situation been getting worse for protesters? katie: it has gotten increasingly tense over the past month or so it has had moments throughout the campaign, but certainly, in the last month or so, it has gotten more tense.

protesters are interrupting and protesters are interrupting and trying to disrupt the rallies. donald trump says in the old days we could have taken care of them quicker. who knows exactly what that means? he's even talked about punch a protester. we certainly feel we are on the verge of a violent incident inside these rallies. new orleans in particular about a week ago, that was a really tense one when there were a number of black lives protesters who were standing with their arms up and a number of donald trump supporters screaming at them at the top of their lungs. john: i say this in a non-perfunctory way. stay safe out there.

mark: marco rubio after this. ♪

john: there is a marco rubio press conference in west palm beach. our next guest was there with me covering rubio. i have a couple of basic questions for you. what did you think of that press conference? it was a little unusual. >> i was a little stunned by it. i thought he looked shaken. i thought he looked defeated. i thought he looked like jeb bush did in south carolina and

he was getting the same type of questions. what happens after tuesday when your campaign is over? are you going to run for governor? are you going to be able to run for governor? he was frustrated and a little beaten down. he says he is looking forward, but it's hard to see past tuesday. john: people were saying check monster.com. there might be jobs out there for you after tuesday. he had a hard time answering. >> he did. and that is not the marco rubio i have been following for a decade. he is quick, he is glib. john: do you think they have a plan and a path to win the primary on tuesday? >> i think they did a week ago, and that was too out trump trump. and now he is apologizing for it and almost blaming his family. my children were embarrassed by

this. i can't do it anymore. i don't see another answer for it at this point. he spent six years in washington, he and his staff, violently protecting his favorable ratings. he blew all of that with this trump that and now seems to be trying to pull it back together. john: you have covered florida for a long time. you have covered jeb and rubio. does a jeb endorsement matter before tuesday? >> what would matter is if and when he endorses ted cruz. remember, two weeks ago we were talking about bob dole saying i would rather have donald trump than ted cruz.

john: do you expect a jeb bush endorsement before the primary on tuesday? >> not before, and here's why. he's not going to endorse trump, and trump is probably going to win. jeb bush has never been one to get out in front on endorsements. john: that's the story of the republican establishment writ large. jeb bush could help shape the primary, but will not. ♪

the features actresses from the hit shows. the ad will be running in florida and in ohio. i am in ohio at a john kasich event. bernie sanders is going on the airwaves with some ads of his own and in some of the states voting on march 15.

our share time program, i sat down with bernie sanders' wife jane and talked about what is like to run a campaign that some in the media have decided it is over. >> have noted some frustration -- i have noted some frustration. >> he says here i am and the question is always when are you getting out of the race, we are not getting out. when he is committed to something he never gives up. so we just go. and we know anything can happen. john: even going from dead to life. that for episode will air on sunday.

casey hunter joins me from elsewhere in ohio. thanks for coming on the show. let me start by asking you how it feels. bernie sanders was in north carolina, one of the other five states voting on tuesday. did that event feel like a candidate who is dead or all but dead? >> pretty far from it i would say. north carolina is a place where the clinton campaign wants to make it look like sanders is competing hard. they are feeling confident about where they stand and it is possible there efforts with african american voters are showing her head. the energy on the ground at the rally today was more suggestive

of a place where he has pulled out a win. there were a couple thousand people inside an auditorium. the campaign does not often under book there venues. i think it is something to keep an eye on. an eye on. they are making a serious play for it. he is here in toilet -- toledo where he is hitting that trade message over and over. some pretty compelling messaging on that although the crowd is smaller. john: the campaign looked at this day as more of a day to win delegates. north carolina, florida,

missouri, illinois, and ohio.

is the campaign thinking that rather this be a day of survival that they can pick up states that can get some wins on thursday? >> there is a sense to meet their expectations it would be better for them to have at least one if not more wins on the board. the state they feel best about is missouri. he will be attending a significant chunk of his weekend in missouri. they have a sense it is more like some of these other places. ohio and illinois in particular challenge their, ohio has enclosed primary. they are making something of an interesting play in chicago trying to 2 -- tired hillary clinton to rahm emanuel who has had all kinds of problems in that community. the overall strategy seems to be a shift whereas before they felt they needed to put the winds up and now they feel they can focus more on delegates or even that they need to focus on delegates to push against the clinton strategy. i think narrative will run against them if they do not manage to win one of these states on tuesday. john: the five states are strong clinton states. they are big states. they are states where the electorate is different. why are they want bullish on the state after next tuesday than they are in the five voting on tuesday? >> if you look at the calendar egos past, there are a lot of places that are strongest for them and there are big delegate rises in places where they might be able to do well. if you talk to clinton campaign folks there's little bit of fear of a long stretch where mibtel fear -- tougher for her to put a win. they have this caucus-focused strategy which is a delegate focused strategy. they do want to stem the bleeding on the delegate side. they are looking at places like washington state for he has laid pretty well. they feel against she has a southern fire while he has a western firewall. they can continue to build or sustain some level of momentum. it looks better for them in the long run. as jane sanders said to you there is no sign that they are going to be dropping out. the rhetoric from the clintons that seems to try to push them out gets under the skin of the candidate in a way that makes it more likely he will hang on and tried to demand everything he can of them even if he does not end up with the delegates he needs to win the nomination. mark: i saw him yesterday and he was still a grumpy mood. as he and a grumpy mood or less

grumpy mood now? >> a think less so. the mood shifted after what happened in nevada and south carolina. there was much more of the sense that it was a slog, things have changed, the candidate less willing to engage on the trail. he is very root -- graph in responding to any question including the premise you might drop out saying excuse me, next question. he was energized by the michigan when. they are still in the middle of this difficult time and there is an element of keeping her head down and i do not think they lost that frustration about the increasing sensor pushing for him to get out of this race when they feel like they prove deficit in michigan. mark: thank you. coming up, and emotional farewell for former first lady nancy reagan after these words. ♪ >> we gather here today to say goodbye to nancy davis reagan, a beautiful, smart, and gracious woman, a woman who captured the heart of a man who loved his craft, his country, and his countrymen. >> as her own health declined she was adamant and vocal with reuniting with my father on the other side after her passing. i am hoping for god's peace of mind that she got her wish. >> she knew how to protect her husband and her president but also her own place. to stand her ground and once it had been resolved, to move on. god bless nancy. mrs. ronald reagan, first lady, and the unlikely friend of a reporter. ♪ mark: all were speaking in simi valley, california at the ronald reagan presidential library where the former first lady was laid to rest. here to check about her legacy is al hunt. thank you for joining us. give me a sense watching that germany what struck you first about it? >> the complexities of nancy reagan but jim baker captured what an astute person she was. there would not have been a president reagan without nancy reagan. jim baker would not have been chief of staff had it not been for nancy reagan's influence. that set the tone for the first administration and the second administration, she was a driving force with george schultz in getting reagan to establish a relationship with the soviet union. she loved her ronnie and she had terrific political instincts. >> one of the things that jim baker said in his eulogy is she was reagan's most important advisor. in what ways did you think of that was true, where was her influence most profound over the

way her husband ran his administration? >> she did not try to influence or get involved in details. as far as the tone and the tenor, the people that she liked her husband to surround himself with. jim baker and nancy forced an incredibly close relationship with mike deaver, her longtime friend. the second administration, my wife did a long documentary on nancy reagan which was fascinating and was able to report that she had scores of phone calls with george schultz in 1985, 86, 19 87 as they were trying to maneuver around the hardline national security advisor which they dumped. that was to influence her husband on dealings with the soviet union. the sand the start arms control treaty. that piece that judy did what's -- which was come from entry nancy did not like. she said it made her look more influential and that made ronnie look less. mark: don reagan wrote about her in negative ways in the tell-all book and that contributed to some of the negative perception that people had. do you think those issues were related to have tough she was, she was very tough lady. al: she was not a good mother. patty davis was moving. she was devoted to ronald reagan and anything that got in the way was a distraction. she had lavish tastes that were embarrassing for the white house. she was not perfect. where she was underrated, when we hear about influential first ladies, we hear about eleanor roosevelt and hillary clinton, she is in that league mark: we talk sometimes about president and thinking about their post presidencies and how they are after they leave office. it seemed she was an exemplary post first lady. also in terms of building up that library and center in simi valley. al: also the issues she cared about. stem cell research, all summer's research, even gun control. she was bothered by the right word drift of the republican party. she thought it had gone beyond ronald reagan's revolution. i will tell you one quick story. she and my wife knew each other. judy was out there at the funeral and she called judy in september 2008 after the republican convention and i was with my wife and she picked up the phone and the first thing nancy said is why did john pick that woman as his running mate? she still had keen political insight as she did think the party was drifting too far right. she would have been mortified by this campaign in 2016 on the

folk inside. mark: i can tell you having had one dinner with her she was -- had incredible appetite for political gossip. she wanted to know the stories about john edwards and real hunter -- rielle hunter. mark: i can tell you having had always a pleasure. coming up. donald trump's path to the nomination and the delegate count that will get him there. if you are watching as in washington, d.c. you can always listen on bloomberg radio 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪ >> if marco, the governor, if ted had more votes than me in the form of delegates i think whoever gets to that position as opposed to solving the artificial number that was a random number, whoever gets the most delegates should win. that is what i think. >> that was donald trump at the debate talking about the 237 targets he needs. as part of -- part of our by the number segment we have been using our trustee american-made

abacus to see how likely the front runner is to achieving his goal. and why it is coming down to two states. donald trump has racked up victories in most of the republican contests. >> we are having millions people -- of people,. mark: tally up his rival and the front runner is technically losing the delegate race. there is only one magic number. 1237. if trump can click that many delegates he is the nominee. if he does not chaos at the convention in cleveland. this tuesday may decide it all. five states up for grabs but two of the matter the most, rubio and ohio. it's of them must win for their native son. there also huge were donald trump. if trump loses it ensures the contested convention. he would need 70% of the remaining delegates to reach the finish line.

they would have to remain -- when every remaining winner take all contest and get two thirds of the remaining delegates and proportional states. any crowded field that is pretty much mission impossible. if he wins florida and ohio it is basically a coronation. all he has to do is sit -- sick or 53%. others could win half of the remaining delegates and all trump would have to do is pick up arizona, delaware, and new jersey. game over. what if trump wins florida but loses ohio? >> we just keep going and going and going. john: that was a clarifying piece of how important florida and ohio are. what do you think that tells you, what do you deduce from those numbers about what the right strategy is for the stop trump movement, do they want to

continue with a fractured field or do they want to end up in a one-on-one situation with ted cruz versus donald trump or maybe a john kasich versus donald trump one-on-one down the line. mark: john kasich just arrived and karen casey is speaking at the rally. you will be hearing them in the ground because they got underway. i know a lot of smart people and when you ask them for different scenarios some people think the best way to stop trump is to have crews get him one-on-one. some thinks is -- it is inevitable rubio will lose and some come nation of basic and crew -- cruz can slow down. i think people are underestimating cruz's ability to win in a one-on-one and stop trump below majority.

the big variable is just how much does trump have to get, what percentage under 50 does he have to get to be a lock for the nomination. i hear people across the board as low as 40 and highest 48. mark: we can see the easy scenarios. if you lose ohio and florida you will get to a conveyor -- contested convention. if he wins both he is likely to be the republican nominee and quite likely to get to 1237. what is interesting is the tweener scenarios. what is striking is that it shows you that if that scenario plays out, that is quite a likely scenario. it will be hard for trump to get to 1237 so a lot rides on the man behind you and ohio. if he can pull it off we might be headed for a contested

convention in cleveland. john: trump, if he can put basic away he can get the nomination. mark: we will be coming back to that and we will be back after this with whom one not just the day but the whole week. ♪

mark: who won the week? john: bernie sanders. it will be difficult but he revived himself with the win. mark: he went from dead in the eyes of the media to very much alive. bloombergpolitics.com. coming up on "bloomberg west." we are also on a special weekend edition saturday and sunday. until monday, sayonara. until monday, sayonara. ♪ v

♪ announcer: "brilliant ideas" is powered by hyundai motors. ♪ narrator: the contemporary art world is vibrant and booming as never before. it is the 21st century phenomenon, a global industry in its own right. "brilliant ideas" looks at the artists at the heart of this. they have a unique power to provoke, andnish, shock. in this program, we meet the mad and brilliant heri dono. ♪