john: i am john heilemann mark:. and i am mark halperin, with regards to his surrogate ben carson, we will say it again, you had one job. was growing up, people are talking about their sexual conquests and try to make themselves appear like they are casanova. i am surprised you have not heard that, i really am. >> i have not heard it and i know a lot of people who have not heard it. dr. carson: maybe that is the problem. ♪

mark: there was a lot going on today. the prevailing consensus in the political world is that donald j. trump's campaign is in dire condition. the wall street journal updated its national poll with post-debate numbers today. survey says, hillary clinton leads trump in the four-way matchup. slightly smaller than his -- her margin yesterday. that was before monday respondents were added in. that suggests trumps performance may have helped from a freefall. but it is much steeper than it was just one week ago. so, how was donald trump responding to this? today he launched one of his twitter tirades, he called paul ryan a weak and ineffective leader. and he lashed out at senator john mccain for dis-endorsing

him over the year. and framing his campaign strategy, he wrote this on twitter -- so what does this unshackled donald trump do next? he released a new tv ad that revisits a topic of hillary clinton's health. >> our next president faces daunting challenges in a dangerous world. iran promoting terrorism, korea threatening, isis on the rise, libya and north africa in chaos. hillary clinton fails every single time. secretary of state, now she wants to be president. hillary clinton those not of the fortitude, strength, or stamina to lead our world. she failed as a secretary of state. mark: so john, to the extent you can discern a formula here, is

trumps new gambit a potential path to victory for him, or pure, causing -- kamikaze. that is apocalypse now. the colonel when of the river, surrounded himself with a bunch of guys in cambodia, and they treated him like a god, and he gradually went totally insane. that is what that is about. a strategy, i said this yesterday on the show, having seen him yesterday in pennsylvania. we are amped up to 11, it is a great strategy if you want your base, the 37% of people right now, who are for him, to be really excited and pumping their fists and yelling and screaming at the television. but it is not a strategy to expand your voting pool to the point that you can even get back to contention, let alone win. joke i will make this a

again, if he is running to be editor in chief of breitbart, he has a good platform. for trump to become president, he needs to get republicans back on his side. it is possible, that if he does all this stuff and regains the people he has lost over the past few days, then beats are in the debate, more clinton disclosures, this ad breaks through -- it is still a role struggle. but because he is currently seen through the prism am of unhinged and out of control, all of this stuff causes them to have a bad day. john: you are right. who are the republicans to the left? not the hard-core trump people. they are in the middle of the electorate, the moderate republican to read those are the ones that fled, like he has attacked john mccain and paul ryan. he is running an ad that looks like it was from 2008 that the mccain campaign was afraid to run -- it is like "apocalypse

now." .ark: it is pure petulance he sends the message, do not cross me. that can work if you six months out and trying to get people in line. but 30 days out? john: and only if you are on the rise, not flailing. mark: all he is doing is making more enemies than sending a message of disarray. john: i agree, and not getting back republicans he needs. another thing people are talking about is house speaker paul ryan telling house republicans yesterday they should feel free to flee from donald trump if that is what is necessary to save their skin and help his party remain the majority in the lower chamber. not yesterday still has ruled out rescinding his endorsement of trump sometime in the future. but, ryan has shied away from public spats with his party's nominee. donald trump has not. today during that social media rampage, trump targeted ryan by

tweeting -- trump also tweeted this bigger has been in a tough position for months. this heightens concerns republicans could lose the house. as ryan and goal changed here, or merely his method of achieving it? mark: before, he was making the case trump could get elected president and would sign things into law that would be more conservative than hillary clinton. he no longer thinks trump can win and no longer wants trump to win, though he will no longer say that. he is trying to save the house to have a bulwark against speaker pelosi and all-democratic control. has beene

communicating with paul ryan, but basically, paul ryan is now saying, this is not my goal, to get donald trump elected. john: if we go back to the period when he was meditating whether to endorse trump or not. he said he will offer it on the condition that he takes tutelage from me. outsource the policy part to me. when i saw them in pennsylvania, he was railing against free trade and entitlement reforms, two of the pillars that ryan believes needs to happen. if he asked you who you would get actual reforms for in trade deals, he is betting hillary clinton would be easier to work with to get those things done than donald trump. ryan, the best chance to save majority, is to have trump run well. now his position, the best way to keep a majority is to warn republicans that you must turn

out to vote for house republicans. john: i agree with you, not just because he wants to save the majority. if ryan looks down the road at what could yield the policy outcomes he wants, a clinton presidency with a republican house in either chamber -- mark: mixed bag. john: trump has rejected all the things he wants them to. mark: not all of them. the judges. john: fair enough. mark: on the flip side of trump's tribulations, i give you a hillary clinton. she is whistling a happy tune. sheerday in columbus, ohio drew what is said to be her largest crowd of the entire campaign. take a look at this "new york times" photo. it also click like a donald trump or bernie sanders rally. service says there were more than 18,000 people in attendance. clinton's outdoor event yesterday was well-timed.

it was a show of strength when the campaign needed one, because her campaign usually holds events during the day when there are fewer people because they are at work area this was a big rally to keep our momentum going. ,nother big rally in miami where she appeared alongside al gore. meanwhile, for the second day in a row, wikileaks drafted additional hacked e-mails allegedly from the -- inbox of john podesta. revelations, and e-mail from march suggesting donna brazile, , shew the interim chair kicked off clinton's campaign with the question coming from a cnn town hall. leaks like this would be making much bitter -- bigger waves in the political world. most of these things are drowned out, including on this program, by all the dysfunction donald trump is causing within the republican party. so as we continue to look at

these wikileaks questions, including people in the clinton's orbit, what would it take for her to lose the news cycle? john: i will go super simple here, it would take a controversy that is not inside baseball. everything coming out of these wikileaks so far is inside baseball. the reason trump is a potent force in the last 16 months is that he talks in the language and about issues in a big, bold way that is not about the inside stuff. all this clinton stuff is a stuff politico might be interested in, but not stuff that when trump hammers on it, it seems so small compared to the controversies of his campaign. which, everyone in the country understands. mark: the problems republicans have with this stuff, it is medium grade. it speaks to inside stuff, like the clintons strategies. people complained about other

members of the team. there are questions about the state department and the functions there. there are some questions about whether there was improper conduct with the justice department. but again, as you suggested, so much smaller in the way it is covered. the freak show media circus that donald trump, fighting with the speaker of the house himself, not hillary clinton -- it is hard for donald trump to win a new cycle right now. unless, the polls come out and it turns out all the speculation about trump being damaged, if he starts to be even in polling, he could win. john: the new york times account is fascinating. i am interested to read but position, her keystone -- donna brazile dropping a question, i get it. if there is nothing else going

on because talk all day about it. but considering information andt sexual assault republican anarchy, the whole party melting down, it is nothing. the sights and sounds of hillary clinton day with al gore. ♪

john: you mentioned earlier that hillary clinton shared a stage day with al gore in miami, florida. not always the greatest history between clinton and gore since they competed two decades ago. they had not been the chummy us of political pals. he did not attend the democratic

convention, all of which made their debut today all the more fascinating. was first and foremost, their body link which. they sat a little bit far part, but eventually embraced and applauded throughout the rally. here's what they had to say about each other. i am mostinton: what excited about is to be here with one of the world foremost leaders on climate change, al gore. [applause] mrs. clinton: those 30 years of leadership led al gore to be awarded the nobel peace prize in 2007. proud.ery there is not anybody who has done more, worked harder. i cannot wait to have al gore advising me when i am president

of the united states. gore: she will make solving the climate crisis a top priority. your vote really, really, really counts. you can consider me as a exhibit a of that truth. that hillary clinton, we will build on the progress made under president obama with the paris agreement. she has proposed a terrific plan. i went through that with a fine toothed comb. our plan on solar panels and itanding renewable energy, is right at the limit of what we can do. and that is exactly the kind of that we need from the next president of the united states of america. i would say with all due y, we have -- immodest

been studying them together for a long time. your cause mixed thoughts about what went down today? rivals in thee white house, and over the years they have not been close. the gore family felt that bill clinton's conduct in the white house-- john: they were disgusted by it. all: today was a sign of hands on deck for the democrats, and the desire of hillary clinton to use al gore to not necessarily appeal directly to the millennials, but it is a bank shot. you appeal to millennials to care about climate change, and floridians and others in states that may be close because al gore is the world leading expert on every vote counts. seeing them together, no doubt al gore continues to have a jaundiced view of the clintons. john: let's unpack it a bit more. they were rivals because of the

fact that gore believed he was the vice president and hillary clinton believed she was the vice president. fought for bill clinton's year -- ear. a problem with bill clinton because of his behavior. and she thought he was not officially liberal. they have never liked each other. was miserable in the white house, and a large part of it was because of her. but he still cares tremendously about climate change. his reputation has taken a they thought it was hypocritical for him to sell to an oil-producing nation. also bitter over what happened in 2000. his feeling that the election was stolen from him. and like all democrats, he regards trump as a menace to read he wants to be out there

and does not want to see this happen again. that was his message today. i think he feels it in a heartfelt way. mark: you have to understand the psychology of al gore. he won the popular vote, he should have been president. so he has dabbled in presidential politics since then it has largely stayed out of it. you canim come back, imagine a world in which he would be out there a lot more. the fact that they have done one is a testament to the all hands on deck approach. teletext,he hates almost more than anyone i have ever met. he desperately wanted to become president, but did not want to do anything to get there. to get him on stage give you a sense of the stakes. when we come back, the clinton advisor and a trump advisor walk-up in gotham city. ♪

mark: earlier today, john and i hosted an event with two important political fundraisers. by the founder of an investment firm and a trump economic alice the advisor. and a hedge fund manager and advisor to hillary clinton. toe is what the former had say about what he thinks of trump's chances of winning the presidential election. >> i would say there right now, there is a one in five shot, or one in 10, somewhere between there. because what you know about politics is that anything can happen. 20%.

he later took to twitter to reiterate his forecast is based on polling and prediction markets. he said "mr. trump always exceeded those "mr. trump always exceeded those expectations." what do you think of one of donald trump's supporters suggesting his chances are not good? john: i thought he was being honest. totally fair, he defended donald trump throughout the thing. he may be extended argument for why he was with them after what came out in these tapes. but he can read the polls, these guys look at numbers all day long. he is looking at traditional markets and polls. and making an accurate assessment over what anyone would think the races that now. a goes back to something we discussed before. every trump surrogate will be asked about the controversies

because everyone is hearing them. they involve donald trump himself. the problem is, democratic beingates, they are not asked about every clinton scandal. in part, because reporters cannot keep up with the my new shop of everyone. and not everyone will have an opinion about it. john: they are not as relatable. you can ask what he thinks of -- white -- what his wife's what is white or daughters cash-- what his wife or daughters think about it. what donald trump should do to win the election. >> what i would be focused on right now, i would get a balance sheet out, i would get those 92nd clips, the one he did friday night, or the apology,

and i would say, this is where i stand on these issues. this is where the secretary stands on these issues. this is why these will be debilitating. and i would stream it and go right over the top of the mainstream media right to the american people. more than he can with a crowd. and i would lay out each thing, whether it is immigration or trade. i would also get his surrogates to be better coordinated so that when there are messages coming out from him they can have a message similar to the one he is beaming in. of course, making an argument that trump is policy-focused at the moment he had an ad attacking hillary clinton and her health. it is an interesting prescription, but fantasyland. mark: mike pence gave a couple speeches. it revs up the base than the way trump is taking now. pursueobviously will not

a campaign based on policy. and, the believe that centrism in this country has shifted to the left. >> at the end of the day, with the issues we have, and you have seen it how it happened with bernie. --t was the center has moved it is not where i was four years ago or eight years ago. you will need more government intervention. i know the feeling is for it to be in the center, but with the issues you have out there, you will need more government intervention. what position she has taken in the center, and he did not have an answer. john: i do not know what the center is shifting, but the thing is, mark lazarus is concerned about economic stuff.

the democratic center has moved to the left. and cultural politics across the country have moved to the left. you never hear about reforming entitlements or eliminating government or eliminating waste. were 90's new democrat arguments, and they are not like that. fascinating to hear those guys friendly with each other agree on that. including thinking that president clinton and speaker ryan could get a lot of work done. coming up, we talk to a trio of political titans about the state of the presidential race. ♪ . .

john: our next guest tonight's three guests. from our nations capital, we have gary bauer, a former presidential candidate and current donald trump supporter. from boston, we have jeb bush's former campaign strategist and in los angeles, we are joined by strategist, robert shrum. what an incredible trio you are. us, but you't see are lined up ideologically in a -- in an odd way. i'm going to ask where the race is right now? is this race a sickly over? -- basically over? guest: it never over until it's over. whether it's sports or politics, you get up and fight as if you could win. it's important for the ticket, push the and hence to

campaign that way. you go on and make your points. there's a tremendous amount of vulnerabilities for hillary clinton. one of them that has gotten kind of buried in all of this is that a good bit of the industrial base in this country has been devastated and people that have been voting democrat for years feel their party has abandoned them. those are new people for the republican party if it has enough of a brain to accept them and need to keep making the case for those people and for clinton corruption and what that would mean for four more years in washington dc. bob shrum, i know it you are going to say, but is the race over? guest: i thought it was over -- over on labor day. i thought trump was in a cul-de-sac and he has made it worse and worse since then. none of his message about the industrial base is coming through and if you look at a state like pennsylvania, the

latest poll shows him losing that state by 12%. if you go state-by-state in the battlegrounds, she's ahead in virtually every one of them. i don't see what he's going to do to recover. i think what he did in the debate was get himself a few more republicans who really dislike the clintons, but he's heck at about 39% or 49% and can't win the election with that. john: bob shrum, it's true, you did say the race was over on labor day. so now we move to the tiebreaker. not a big fanbut of donald trump. give us the unbiased view. is the race over? tiebreaker.l be the the race is over. the time of death was about 10:00 after the first debate and it has been downhill ever since. you can bring people into the front door of the party while you are pushing 20 or 30 out of the back. it has been long over and we are

just on a slide to see what happens in the last 30 days. mark: i want to ask all of your question -- go ahead. i want you all to address this. you have all supported candidates who have done bad things in their personal lives. every one of you has. gary, you are rich -- you are supporting a candidate now that disgusts a lot of people. what would donald trump have to do for you to withdraw your support if it wasn't that tape? guest: i don't even think in those terms, with all due respect. tonow this might be news some folks, but everybody that has ever run for every office in america and every voter that has theologically, according to my beliefs as a christian, are sinners. they have all done things, said things, looked at things -- mark: sorry to interrupt -- thet: let me finish

thought. its policy that matters. the fact of the matter is donald has the right positions on growing the economy, shrinking government, lower taxes, pro-life, defending religious liberty, and hillary clinton is engaged in a cover-up of her corruption and an apologist for her husband. so why don't you forgive that? it's not me to forgive. them because of their activities. i oppose them because they are wrong philosophically. many supporters of donald trump have been critical of president clinton for his personal failings. why are you less forgiving personally for that? every i don't speak for evangelical or every values voter. oughtection, the issues

to be the difference is on policy between the candidates. it is night and day. by the way, al gore was down in florida campaigning for hillary clinton today. i seem to remember al gore was publicly accused of being a sexual assault or -- sexual assaulter -- mark: would you forgive him for that and say he's a center and forgive him? guest: i'm pointing out the hypocrisy of the left acting kate --0-year-old 10-year-old tape is horrifying when the left in this country has been associated with radical social policies. mark: let me ask you to critique kerry's answers. guest: i think it's absurd and entirely unfair to bring up the charge against al gore which was never substantiated. what donald trump did has come out of his own mouth.

mark: what he said. -- guest: what he said. not interrupt you. you cannot win the argument by interrupting. what donald trump said 10 or 11 years ago when he was a 59-year-old man, not some college kid, was outrageous. but he's said things like it over and over again. he is set them in this campaign to megyn kelly. he said them in the first debate . he just does it over and over and over again. i can go through all the quote. we have seen them all. this is who he is and i think it makes it very difficult. somebody that unstable, it's not just about his private sexual conduct or comments or his attitude toward women, it is somebody who is so unstable, so anxious to be vengeful, so ready

to strike out that makes him unacceptable as president of the united dates. guest: mishandling classified information, appeasing iran. evaluate would you house speaker ryan has handled the last 48 hours? guest: he's in a difficult situation. it is lose/lose. what are you going to do at this point? the strategy they needed was a few months ago that mike coffman in colorado used, which is don't give hillary clinton a blank check. they have known the direction this campaign is headed and gary bauer can twist himself into whatever kind of pretzel he wants to, but we have to come up with a whole new definition of hypocrisy to talk about how the religious right is supporting a guy like donald trump even after what has come out, and by the way, we haven't seen the last of it. there's plenty more. i would say run for your lives.

i understand what donald trump is doing right now. i can understand the situation the campaign is in. what i can't understand is anybody defending him. he's going to napalm the whole village to win a battle that's lost already. the problem is nobody survives in the village when it's over. we have to get as far away from this thing as we possibly can as republicans and start to define with the party is. on november 9, that's the most important day of this election because it will be over. will be a great time to define with the republicans is. two thirds of voters felt betrayed by the republican party. can't the truth is, we win an election this way. we've never seen a candidate implode like this 20 date -- 28 days away from the election in modern times. to talkease try not over the other guests on this show. guest: i've watched too much of cane kaine john: a few

minutes ago, you talked about how this should be all up policy and then you launched an ad hominem attack on al gore. do you want to talk about policy or you want to talk about alleged indiscretions of a vice president who has done one campaign event so far. what do you want to talk about? i don't want to hear about the left. you said you wanted to talk about policy and literally the next words out of your mouth was al gore and masseuses. what do you want to talk about? answerdo you want me to your question or are you going to filibuster your own show? john: it is my show. guest: i'm trying to figure out if these issues of personal conduct actually matter or not to the left. that's the only thing they are raising about donald trump. they are afraid to fight on the issues of open borders, trade deals that got our economy,

appeasement of iran -- go down the list. if the campaign was about those issues, hillary clinton would not see the light of day. theire left has with republican friends is to try to smear the republican candidate. and by the way, i can't ever imagine harry reid or nancy on ai bailing out democratic presidential candidate. and in fact, they did not say a word when hillary clinton spent obstructingee years justice and destroying evidence central to an investigation of her mishandling of classified information. there's a lot to work with there. i'm going to let you pick and choose what you want to and, let him speak please. guest: these are completely

baseless attacks. she said using a private e-mail server was a mistake and she's not going to make excuses for it . the f the eye director who is a republican said there's no basis to move forward here. -- the fbi director said there's no basis to move forward. the recipe gary is offering for the republican party to go forward is a recipe that would doom that party for a long time. if you look at the polling data, americans are far closer by a good majority to hillary clinton's positions on immigration reform than donald trump's. if the republican party is going to say we want to take away a woman's right to choose, we don't respect women, we don't believe in equal pay, or we are going to take away lgbt rights and religious freedom is their euphemism for that, that republican party will lose with the rising american electorate not only this year, but for years and years to come. al gore is one of the most honorable people i've ever met.

those allegations are entirely unsubstantiated and gary is just to try to make a case for somebody for whom you cannot make a case. donald trump who smeared himself. no one else smeared him. some let's finish with metrics here. tell me who is going to win and what percentage of the overall popular vote their going to get. guest: hillary clinton is going to win the overall percentage of 47%,opular vote, around 48% and electoral a, it will be over 100 electoral votes. there's a possibility donald trump could win a state or two governor romney did not win. there will be that many states are more that he will lose that governor romney did win. dave is about right. i think it is 46%, 47%, 48% of

the vote and i think she's 340, 345re about electoral votes. guy is currently behind. what number does he need to get to win? guest: i'm not even going to go down that road. i'm not a political prognosticator. but god for bid hillary clinton wins, it will be a failed presidency because it will be of the lasticies eight years that have devastated our economy and weakened us abroad. ,ohn: gary bauer, bob shrum dave -- mark: hereto forever known as the three amigos. [laughter] guys are great. it would be great to have you all here in one room because it would be fisticuffs. mark: and we love fisticuffs. ♪

mark: we are joined by two political reporters who have been covering this election closely. thank you both for being here. tell me what you are currently wondering about regarding this campaign. guest: i'm wondering how hillary clinton is going to fill 27 days of mostly active campaigning and without either opening up a controversy, making a mistake, but keeping the momentum going. littleed today to do a bit of that by introducing a new policy proposal. mark: and trotting out al gore. guest: there you go.

it was a twofer. credit,iddle-class tax that was the sort of thing she was doing months ago. to do it this late in the campaign when it doesn't actually draw any discernible new demographic or voter group to her suggest they are looking start toways she can make the argument that i'm going to be president and here's how i would govern. they have been very cautious in brooklyn, saying we are trying to get 270, not win in a landslide. are they rethinking that now? guest: i think they have too. looking at the polling heading into the weekend, donald trump was behind nationally and in key battleground states. now we see the polling widen. /wall street journal poll had them 11 points before the debate and now it is nine and trump says that's an

improvement. the debate, for them, will have a rallying affect among their playand we have seen that into the calculations paul ryan is thinking about, but in our real clear politics polling average, clinton is leading in every battleground state except iowa. virginian places like and colorado, but also pennsylvania, florida now. this is a really tough race. you have been writing about what's going on with paul ryan and this anarchy in the republican party. mark and i are old enough to murder the 1996 race where something like this kind of happened. what's similar and what is different tween the dole president and the current brian/trump president? guest: the only thing similar as if you are thinking about shifting resources and focusing on congressional races, what is different dramatically and significantly is that you had

bob dole going along with that plan. donald trump has no part in this plan. he is not, as we know, a cheerleader for his own party. bob dole was very much a person of the party and that's a huge, significant difference and it's why you see the backlash paul ryan is receiving from trump supporters i have talked to on peoplepaign trail and saying i'm leaving the republican party because of this. on the flip side, you have donald trump lashing out at people who he says are disloyal to him. hillary clinton will be in pueblo, colorado, which is republican colorado, not democratic colorado. there has been a debate about focusing on trying to cleave republicans versus rallying the base. where are they in trying to find that balance? are stillhink they trying to find a balance. the place she is going to

tomorrow is in the republican part of the state, but it is a classic swing county. voted for bush twice and obama twice. where they have been focused for the last six weeks or so, on counties like that in pennsylvania, some places in ohio where it seems she has made some headway there. she is now less than a point ahead in ohio after being three points behind. in colorado, where she has been doing pretty well, i see this as a sign of confidence and a hope that in states where she's doing pre-well, they can do a little better. mark: our colleague had a story about hillary clinton. she seems pretty confident and loose. you have washer as closely as everyone. and she faking it or does she seem confident and loose? guest: she is definitely

confident and a little looser after the debate the other night. she came to the back of the plane and was pretty jocular and loose and relaxed. get universally great notices from that performance, but i think she's feeling that even it she did not knock it out of the park at the debate, that they are writing pre-. mark: thank you. hope you both come back soon. we will be right back with more after this. ♪

john: gary bauer was the standout guests in that he talked a lot. he seemed to embody the contradictions going on in trump

plus world. they'll say we want to talk about policy but that he goes after gore in a personal way. mark: but you can't say it's just one side. the democrats in the 1990's say bill clinton is a good man who did a bad thing. both sides say we can forgive them because our policies are so great. have plenty of democrats who have done worse in their lives and they are willing to forgive have adopted sides this attitude. they'll say we want to talk about policy, and then they don't. gary bauer and i will have him back on the show, but the starkness of i want to talk about policy, by the way al gore -- we've had a lot of democratic examples on this show. if you are watching us in washington d.c., you can listen to us on the radio radio at 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

my neighboryou be and will you check out bloomberg politics.com for all of your 2016 election coverage. check out all the states were people can still register to vote this late in the campaign season. this program is streaming every day live on twitter. yes, and twitter. a tv screen,find find a screen with twitter on it. john fromwith emily, greylock partners. theyou tomorrow, same at time, same bat channel. sayonara. ♪

i'm mark crumpton, you are watching "bloomberg technology." in an attempt to appeal to millennial voters, hillary

clinton campaign with former vice president, al gore, saying clinton would make climate change a top priority. mr. gore: the choice in this election is extremely clear. hillary clinton will make solving the climate crisis a top national priority. mark: he warns that donald trump would "take us toward a climate catastrophe or co- climate catastrophe." pence: when he takes residence in the white house, he will fight every day for the american people, his only special interest will be you. mark: north carolina officials say three more people have died in the aftermath of hurricane matthew. the death toll across five states is now 30. thousands of residents were ordered to evacuate as high water pushes downstream. a us-led coalition is p