tv Street Signs CNBC May 15, 2013 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
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>> they are all cracking new record highs. the nasdaq not at a record high is at a 12.5 year high. it is enjoying a 16th positive session as it sits just to the upside once again. we're on course for the fourth straight gain. we have got really mixed economic data. and yet you have got these markets still at record highs every day. >> it's stranger than that. you have got mixed economic news and you have other asset classes
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sending a very mixed signal. this is a tricky market to read. take a look at the market leadership. it has been similar for a while. the bank stocks. semi conductor stocks have been great. what is this telling you? maybe they will taper bond purchases later. maybe. look at the dollar. the dollar index has been rallying. hard to figure out.
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generally have not been doing too much. is this a sign that the economy is slowing down? for the moment, the trend is cyclicals for the last month in the stock market and the commodity market is not signalling a global economic expansion. >> it is really very tough. your friend until it's not. thank you very much. >> let's find out if it remains our friend. you heard all the stats and sue pearllatives abound now. look at this. this is a 25 year chart, folks, behind us of the s&p 500. okay? we hit the peak in 2000, you know what happened next. the drop. and then the housing boom inflated. we peek out in 2007. the market drops again and guess what? right back to where we were above that.
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if you draw a line it's not a perfect line. it looks a little bit like a triple top. >> it's no longer a tripping top. the resistance was at the 2000 and 2007 highs. i view that as a test mat to break out. you could derive a long term target. that's what i'm looking at for 2014. i think it's conservative from a long, long term perspective. the market really does have and
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that helped refresh the market. >> so there is no additional resistance inside of these levels? >> that's correct. that does make the path of least resistance higher. there was no reason why they should not also do the same. and it has. the break out has been confirmed. >> if you are right, we are, and we go up, up, up. so where are we headed? >> i don't know. 1788 is a target but it's not
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the ultimate target. i do expect to revise that higher. so what i prefer to do is identify what is going on with the market right now. and right now it has positive momentum. and earnings season was very, very well received. a lot of short term resistance levels were exceeded. and that helped end the correction. >> it feels like the earnings season was almost too well received. it feels likeev everyone wants see the market with glass half full right now. what would be a correction indicator that we would watch out for as a warning? >> an easy way to look would be to watch something called the 20 day moving average. when that tends to roll over and we can just use it for the s&p 500, that tends to be indicative
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of a loss of momentum that is sufficient enough to have a correction. we just haven't had that yet. it would be a loss of momentum that would make these overbought conditions finally matter for the s&p 500. >> i'm going to put you on the spot and if you can't answer it, totally understand. apple just broke below its 50 day moving average. worst day in a month. any comment on what is happening to apple technically? >> i think it's a normal pull back in apple. i think we're retreating from resistance. and actually start to enter a basing phase. there are better looking charts out there. with so many names having broken out and so many names oversold but i think it's in the beginning of a bottoming process.
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>> that's the technical side, right? the technicals are saying there is more room to run. what about the fundamentals. she is basically saying there is no additional resistance in site. the equity markets has been the macro you had. whatever the reasons for that are, it is generally supportive of the idea that the bias is higher. >> the earnings numbers were not
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terrible at all. but that has largely been a function of the supremacy of buy backs. you know, one of the reasons that we were a little nervous going to the spring is the fact that we thought the revenue numbers would be bad. >> how much higher would you do in terms of a bit for the market. i think to the extent that the bias is higher, you could be talking about something like
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1800 sometime late next year. if things continue along this way, which they might not. >> we are going to have the shakes from this withdrawal? yes or no? >> well, yeah. but i mean, remember. the easing cycles always end. and one thing that we are in the minority about is i don't believe that the feds tapering of asset purchases, some reason to run for the hills. this time it's through the quantitative easing. the fed is able to tighten policy throughout history and it doesn't always lead to a sell off in equity prices. >> we certainly hope that things are much better out there once
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they do start doing that which is obviously a positive. thank you very much. >> i think it's more likely that the president. >> that's when you let out the kids. >> he said those need to all be implemented. some of them were not in the initial back and forth between the ig and irs. >> the attorney general testifying on the capital hill. there is still the possibility of criminal investigation, criminal prosecution as a result of this. although it's too early to come to any conclusions about that.
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>> we will see whether or not any of the civil servants who were involved, remember the inspector general report said that no one involved so far as they could determine from their interviews in the inappropriate targeting of those conservative groups, none of those were developed by anybody outside of the irs.
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announced they are pushing a new shield law which is something that the president obama supported as a senator that say that really there are s nothing there. >> john, thank you very much. >> google busting through $900 a share. but will its new music service shut pandora's box. >> is the gold run done? over? finished? kaput? plus how you can play the next great american oil boom. coming up. that's not much, you think. except it's 2% every year. go to e-trade and find out how much our advice and guidance costs. spoiler alert: it's low. it's guidance on your terms, not ours. e-trade. less for us. more for you.
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>> welcome back to street signs. i'm josh lipton. check out apple, which is in the red. near session lows right now. we just heard that tiger global manager. that stock was already under pressure. it slipped below the 50 day moving average. stock recently peeked near former highs. i just spoke to mark newton of gray wolf, the chief technical analyst there. mark says support is at 4:13 and
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into overdrive. the stock crossed the 900 buck mark earlier today. >> also at the google conference here. i understand that you are also a new father. >> we love it. >> let's get right on google. 1,000 bucks may seem only $95 a way. >> we still like the stock. >> we also need to have the marketplace that is similar.
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>> i'm a warrior. this company continues to execute extraordinarily well. what we will see is what they can do to transform the company. into advertising and display. this is a company that do you have any concern? the main concerns are what is happening around the core business. what can happen with other partners in display? the core business is still 95% fromtizing. beyond that we have to see what they can do from hardware. it's not going to be easy. we think they can continue to innovate there. >> very quickly.
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google has made its fortune by giving things away from free. just recently, an introduction of subscription channels on youtube and now all access streaming music but for only $10 a month. pandora gives it away from free. spotify has a free version. google will only have the subscription service. >> isn't that funny? google has made its fur chun giving things away for free. >> you wonder at what point .
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>> in those categories they don't have the dominant position. they allow a lot of other people to make money on their platform. >> what are they going to do that will make me think it's worth paying a $10 fee? >> what they call it is radio without rules. that it will be so great, so custom and so much content that it would be worthwhile. but i think the truth is there are a lot of other free options. >> you have other music services. songza is pretty cool. >> you have i heart radio. >> blast fm. you get my point. all of these things that is getting so wide ranging. you wonder what is left for google to conquer? muse sick neic is next. >> they still make the vast
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majority of their money from search. >> that's a good point. i have seen it coming. yelp it. on deck. blackberry shares up a juicy 135% since their lows. one analyst sees big trouble ahead the already troubled company. >> and aber com bee's ceo only wants the cool kids in their clothes. he won't think this is cool. homeless people getting free clothes. it's fantastic. [ female announcer ] there's one thing dave's always wanted to do when he retires -- keep working, but for himself. so as his financial advisor,
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employees will not be paid. you can blame the sequester. taxpayers should continue to file their returns and pay any taxes due as usual. >> since gold peaked, many are asking if the slide is a good buying opportunity or a temporary drop. >> you try to get it to go higher and it will go higher. >> let's take a look at the chart here. he might be right. gold is up 9% and down for the fifth straight session today. but your next guest says this might actually be a good thing. why. let's bring in cnbc contributor. i think kudlow was also on board with this gold dropping is a good thing. is it a good thing now? >> i think so. it's pretty clear why this is happening for three reasons. higher interest rates.
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higher stock market. and there is no inflation that is showing up. when the fed is going to pull back. but higher stocks are obviously one of the biggest drivers. both of those pay a return. stocks for interest rates. obviously you get paid on the interest. gold doesn't pay anything. >> does it keep on dropping? we got up to 1500. now we're going to go back down. we will see how far it goes. my guess is we will see a test of 1250 on this at some point.
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>> those stocks would be. >> gulf port energy. they're about $3.5 billion company. this is a liquids rich gas play. and the companies had some bottlenecks on infrastructure build out. >> can you give us one more? >> another name that we like is energy encorp. they are initiating a horizontal drilling company. following on to several other successful drillers in the area. we think at $51 a share there is
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very little credit for regulated guest. >> a big pizza maker getting downgraded and why america's troubled airports are not a trouble at all. >> a big upgrade for retail come back kid. street signs is back in two. mine was earned in djibouti, africa. 2004. vietnam in 1972. [ all ] fort benning, georgia in 1999. [ male announcer ] usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation.
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being helped. >> macy's sales numbers. that's not what happened. anyway. here is the good news. the analysts expect solid fourth quarter earnings. they say add to the name. they got a $77 target. they see 16, 70, so i guess as it goes down, piper would like it more. >> and we have edward life science. >> the name of a company. they announced a $750 million buy back. you buy because you like the stock. >> and you were just giving me flak for having to order pizza for my kids last night. and the fact that i got boneless wings and a pepperoni pizza didn't help them?
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>> there is no positive on the number. a gain in share. in light of the big rally, and it's doubling from a year ago, all the positives are likely priced in. i'm getting really hungry. don't take the sandwich. >> don't take it away. bring it back. >> look how small i look. >> 79% over the past year. incredible gain there. okay. the question now is whether or not those prices can continue. let's bring in robert frank waiting in the wings. can they? or are we in a bubble here? >> we are seeing surreal prices this week.
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>> now the runner up was this painting that sold for $37 million. these prices have some wondering if the art market has become the latest asset bubble. >> he also said that prices are being propped up by easy money from the fed and dirty money from overseas. the sale is proof that demand is global and strong with collectors from 35 countries bidding. we will see when kristy's takes up the hammer. >> dirty money and art? who would have thought. >> it is always a transparent market. >> up next, remember all that talk about how badly u.s.
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airports stink and by stink, i mean like two days ago. it doesn't seem to matter to american fliers. we will tell you why. >> and the first bit coin book. >> we have two big hours coming your way. dream works animation ceo with us to talk about the foray they're making into online content and tell us about the deal they have made to buy a company that has 57,000 youtube channels aimed at teens. >> telly evans with with me today. more street signs coming your way in a moment. ♪
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>> good call on the airlines, jim. >> remember earlier this week we were talking about how u.s. airports just flat out stink? that doesn't seem to matter. a new survey says that air travel satisfaction is at a seven year high. phil, where is the disconnect here? >> it's hard to figure this one out. >> people are more accepting of baggage fees. not crazy about them. the dot released information about complaints in the first quarter.
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>> okay. thanks very much for that, phil lebeau. >> the geek currency bit coin has been under fire for dramatic price swings. even federal regulators are looking into how to better regulate it. you know who doesn't care about it? he is pre-selling his new book, choose yourself exclusively on bit coin. james, come on. is this a genius marketing stunt or do you really care about bit coin and the people who buy and sell this currency? >> it's a little bit of both. it worked as a marketing stunt because here i am talking about it. >> which is why i knew you wouldn't be offended by the
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>> the man is a genius. come back and let us know how it is selling and you can buy us virtual bit coins. >> i will be virtually hammered and then get a virtual driver. >> just when you thought things could not get worse, could j.c. penney's underlying business be worth nothing? >> and one man's mission to give abercrombie & fitch a massive makeover.
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still higher but we have lost a lot of the gains despite hitting record highs. >> that's -- >> all of these records earlier on today. feels like the market is trying to figure out what do i do what do now? >> that's it, the "r" record. record this, record that, record this, way above moving averages. we've been positive on this show for a couple years now. >> right. >> i don't know. market smells a little funny right now to me. maybe i just smell funny and it's coming through. >> as katie stockton, our technician earlier on today said, momentum is really strong right now. >> look at the google chart you brought up and addressed earlier, google up 27%, apple down 27%. it seems the same buyers are rotating -- we're not seeing new sectors take off. we're seeing rotations here. >> same pool of money. >> probably keep going higher, but something smells a little
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funny. that's all. >> of course, we're not being out of order. let's take a look at what's happening with gap, it's also turned lower after trading at its highest levels in more than 13 years. citigroup upgraded that stock to a buy yesterday. the analyst who made that call joins us now and his name is oliver chen. you're saying buy the gap. in fact, your note says, mind the new gap. why is it a new gap and how much further can it go? >> i do think it's a new gap. i think the there's a lot more consistency in the product, the execution. there's a new global architecture as well. and i like the inventory story. so we do have to believe it's a new gap to believe this chart as well. it's had an incredible move. and where do you go from here? i do think it goes higher. i think it's trading at a great valuation relative to growth prospects, and there's free cash flow downside. for all these reasons, i think you should mind it, and i think it's a new kind of company. >> indeed. you said it's had an incredible move, up by 31% already
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year-to-date. what would bring this to an end, with oliver? >> i think we always have to watch comp store sales. the key to the story is continued consistency in comp store sales. so that has a lot to do with the quality of the product execution and we have to believe that this be bright campaign that gap did will work. skimmers will continue to be hot. we also have to think about old navy. and there's a new management team at old navy. i believe that they have the right ingredients to keep the consistencies there. but this isn't without risk. i would also say, you know, i'm coming from a week in europe, and i believe that there is interest globally in investing in the u.s. economy and gap should be a key beneficiary as this sector continues to run. >> it's all about colorful pants, isn't it? thank you so much, oliver chen. jcpenney's 8k filing claims the company's real estate is worth $4 billion. that's nice, except for the fact that jcpenney's market cap is $4.1 billion. so if you believe the real estate value, you're essentially
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saying jcpenney's underlying business has basically no value. is that possible? joining us from jpmorgan is matt thaw. how do we square these seemingly too disparate numbers, matt? >> yeah, the $1 million question is what is the value and how do you value jcpenney here? you know, the company is working on reconnecting the customers, but the eps and the ebitda are negative today and probably through 2014. so the big question remains, yes, there's this real estate value, but now it's encumbered almost entirely by the loan that they just made. more so, what is the timeline for this turnaround? that's -- you know, that's what's on the minds of investors. >> and obviously, matt, our viewers know, they're smart, market cap can be misleading. if you have a lot of debt under here, the underlying business is weighed down by debt on the balance sheet. but do you believe that the real estate is actually worth $4 billion? >> well, you know, we had done an analysis and the sensitivity
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we were coming out to was about somewhere between $2 billion to $3.5 billion. their analysis came to $3.3, which falls at the high end for the stores, layer in the distribution centers and the headquarters, they were coming out to this $4 billion number. so it's the high end of the reasonable range that we were using. it's not as much the real estate value that i question. again, i think it's more the time frame, over which this will happen, given that, you know, we're definitely going to burn cash this year. the question is, do we burn cash in 2014? if we do, the enterprise value continues to go higher while we have the pie in the sky, longer term model, 2010/2011 ebitda, of maybe $1.5 billion, but with the ebitda rising, the valuation metrics just aren't there today. i think the stock trades with a news flow, and i think that's what you've seen over the last couple of weeks here. >> yeah, i got my latest issue of bon appetit magazine at home. and they've got this giant
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eight-page color insert inside it with all of these fashionable, sexy young people sipping cosmos. it looked nice. i want to shop at jcpenney when this is over. is it going to work? >> we saw the home shops they're going to be launching on june 6th, we saw them down in dallas last week. they look phenomenal, and i think the wall street crowd will like them. the question is going to be, is that right for their customer? and i think only time will tell. i think the initial pricing is going to be high. they need to layer on basics, they need to layer on initial price points. i do think that's part of mike ullman's plan here, is reconnecting with that core customer as opposed to trying to upscale that customer. i think he's thinking about things the right way. my view is it probably will just end up taking a little bit longer than most have patience for. >> matt boss, appreciate the conversation. thank, buddy. >> thank you. >> bone appetite magazine? >> don't judge me. >> you should try domino's. domino's on speed dial, even
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better. coming up next, fitching the homeless. but first, let's take a look at what we're doing, the dow is up by about 18 points. and we have come down from a gain of 86 points, but that was already a huge gain from a drop of 40 points at the beginning of the day. some real whiplash action going on here as we're trying to find our feet. don't go away. [ shapiro ] at legalzoom, you can take care of virtually all your important legal matters in just minutes.
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remember all that controversy over the an ber crombie and fitch ceo saying only the cool cats should wear his clothes? well, he's not going to be happy about this. a los angeles filmmaker is on a mission to rebrand the teen retailer. he went to thrift stores and bought up all the abercrombie clothes he could find and then distributed them to homeless people on skid row. the youtube video already has more than a million hits. i think that's great, personally. >> it depends on what he's trying to accomplish, right? it's great to give people in need anything, if he's giving them clothes, but if it's some sort of a weird exploitation to prove a point. >> i'm sure it's a little bit of both. but you're right, at the end of the day, he's giving some clothes to people who need it. from that point of view, good for him. and a filmmaker, so a point always has to be made. >> give a quick check here. interesting as far as the market goes. let's look at the dow jones
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industrial average very quickly. up 17 points, so mandy referencing whiplash. should be a very interesting, and very important last hour of trading. >> and abercrombie & fitch -- >> the most important hour of the trading day. >> that's what they like to say. abercrombie & fitch up 12% year-to-date. "closing bell" is next. and we do welcome you to the "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth at the new york stock exchange, where this market is taking investors on that proverbial roller coaster ride. welcome aboard. >> thank you, i'm kelly evans standing in for maria bartiromo. the stock market is firmly in focus in this final hour of trade. things have turned around, the dow about up 14 points. the s&p down a little bit weaker, up about a tenth, the nasdaq,
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