>> markets run up and volatility down, time to start buying puts. >> grasso? >> a stock that's usually down, ge was up today. maybe peak pessimism buy. >> guy >> this is your favorite part of the song, the instruments? >> that'whs y i'm letting song >> xylinx, suckers >> i'm back here tomorrow at 5:00 >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. people want to make friends, i'm trying to make money my job is to educate and teach you. day two, here come the hard part today's session made a ton of sense after the big china news from the g-20. even if stocks open far too high and then pulling back, dow only

closing up 288 points. nasdaq 1.5%. let's go over the state of play here what went down in argentina? the president gave china 90 days to come to the table with substantial changes in the way it does business plus the people's republic will have to buy a lot of american made goods for good will there is a lot to be chews on. let's start with the tempering point. it may be difficult for the chinese to change the economy. i don't know how chinese companies will stop stealing american interlellectual proper when they won't admit they're doing it there are other reasons to be skeptical. assuming chinese are serious about coming to the table, how do we try to profit from it? i mean it is mad money, not mad foreign policy first we go over these if china wants to show president trump some good faith, what can they do? they have to be big and visible.

first the people's republic needs to give us agriculture orders the news there might be concessions drove up the prices of pretty much of the whole market today what do farmers do when they have more money in their pockets? they buy tractors. it doesn't matter how the -- how much really. how much the stock of john deere goes up, many firms still have holds on the stock and even after two day it is still down 13 points from the high. i think the analysts will aggressively upgrade deere now that china is willing to play ball you also hear the chinese will buy more american energy please don't get sucked in there the truth is, when it comes to liquified natural gas, we don't have spare capacity to sell them. oil is a pure commodity. china will have no impact on the stocks it's a mistake to speculate on them i see people trying to buy the oil as in the opec meeting, i don't trust any strength here. none i would be a seller of the big producers, not a buyer

next, if president xi wants to win over president trump, he should place the largest orders in history for earth movers from caterpillar. for engines, from cummins and for planes from boeing all which will have a tremendous ripple effect. the prc should just open the checkbook and make trump a hero. in illinois, indiana, washington, all the other states with big aerospace businesses. i know all of this seems obvious and caterpillar caught two upgrades today again, cat stock is down 35 points from the high and sells at a mere 11 times -- 11.9 times this year's earnings boeing is down 35 points boeing could have a lot more upside here's what i think is going to happen that is a prelude to howie mandel coming on the show much don't think like a portfolio manager. think like a chinese bureaucrat. a plane order to a adjustmeto t

would give the president a big win. they're visible triumphs you can see the president having a trump victory tour once the orders roll in now how about some less obvious about it meaningful ways for china to show got faith. mastercard, visa and american express have been trying to crack into the chinese market on their own for ages they don't want bogus chinese joint venture partners who sap the profits out of them like vampires they want unfeddered free access give it to them. another big visible win that doesn't cost them very much, well, you know what? really, what has it care if mastercard is allowed to do business in china on its own what is the expense? think about it six phone calls. caterpillar, boeing, cummins, american express, mastercard and vees yach visa they get very high quality merchandise out of it anyway next potential winner, broadcom.

why does this chipmaker benefit from a trade cease-fire? one of the most congress main dwling that thing that came out of this. qualcomm paided 2dz billion not to buy nxp qualcomm is all about trying to develop 5g wireless. i think you buy the stock and they the qualcomm deal as a sign, a signal that you can buy semiconductor companies again. that's why micron and amd was up by micron because it's cheap don't buy on acquisition broadcom is the most inquiztive player now it's time to strike for another company. every time the ceo the stock goes higher. now get tricky we know the 90-willing to starts day one. that truce may or may not need something for nike, apple, starbucks all chf do a huge amount of business in china. i can justify buying nike on

earnings alone now the risk of the boycott is off the table. same goes for apple and starbucks. apple's derisk for the moment on china talks won't be derisk because of serious logic providers of the sound system actually gave very down beat earnings forecast tonight. that's going to hurt apple tomorrow but i think starbucks and nike are both attractive at the moment because the stocks are ripe for upgrade i still get the sense because some people get the long knives out for apple. my verdict, own apple, don't trade it apparel and retail the most fertile areas that haven't been yet exploited. most apparel makers source some of their products from china it's expensive to move the production to another country. they just got 90 more days to figure out how to do it. that's a god send. let's say pvh which report, got hammered and now on the menld. it is the most exciting area, the dollar stores. here we have a known issue it is tough for the dollar stores to turn a profit without cheap chinese manufacturing.

when we spoke to dollar tree ceo last week, he told us the company had built in 25% terrorists starting january 1st. that's now been delayed which means the estimates for his company are too low. the estimates are too low for dollar general too but five below is thursday's business i would buy them and pick some up after if you want to understand what is working in this shgt ma, think like a chinese bureaucrat not like a portfolio manager the bureaucrats are trying to make president trump happy let's go to p.t. in utah >> caller: hey, jim. it's your old pal p.t. how are you? >> good to have you back on the show what's happening >> caller: did you get mary oone one of the dog hair diaper back? >> no, a poop thing that i think is weird but i hear you, thank you. >> caller: all right

hey, tonight my question is about first solar. it's about 45% down from the 52-week high but it popped today about 5% on some of the tariff rumors. jim, give us some context. what is going on with first solar? >> too hard. it is always question of tariffs versus no tariffs and a question of subsidies and i say no deal no deal. no deal. no deal. let's go to louise in florida. louise >> caller: boo-yah, jim. investor of the days of e.f. hutton i hope many more people listen to your assessment. >> you're very kind. what's going on? >> caller: okay. i'd like to ask you about align. maker of invisalign. >> 3m wants to be in that market i don't think they can go up against 3m 3m is a difficult competitor i think we now have to stay away

given 3m's conviction in that market now if you want to be right in in market, think like a bureaucrat from china who wants to please our president. you enjoy this cat, you may want to try groupon or the stock up for size it's down 40% this year. but i'll find out if you're getting a deal or not. and then this market might be heading higher stocks like mcdonald's and j & j are being left in the dust should you be throwing out the stocks i'll give you my take. and we're playing deal or no deal with host howie mandel. so stay with cramer. >> don't miss a second of "mad money. follow on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to our website. i think we should do that meeting tomorrow.

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groupon to turn around they offer products and services groupon's revenue is growth and the stock is a punching bag. maybe it is punished enough. according to september, the stock was down 26% for the year. after the market meltdown, it now lost 38% of the value for 2018 now part of that is because groupon reported a mixed quarter. sales shrinking 7% even the earnings were better than expected. they're making real strides when it cost to profitability this is treated as a better than better quarter what does the company need to do to prove it's turning around let's talk to the ceo of groupon and learn about its company. welcome to "mad money. have a seat. thank you so much. i have to tell you, i came in a little more positive and then i ready think a very tough letter about yourself you talked about how you were dispinlte disappointed, you're not happy with north america i said if he's not happy, i shouldn't be happy >> yeah, i think one we hold

ourselves to a very high bar and we want to see the marketplace continue to grow when we don't see that, that's tough and we don't like the results. in that letter we understand why. we know why those challenges exist. we don't like those challenges but we have a plan to make those challenges go away and move us to a much stronger place >> outline the plan so we feel more confident this is the right time to buy the stock. >> the core of the plan is based in our marketplace modelling concept. that is moving us away from e-mail and daily deals and really to being a utility for consumers to use every day to grow their businesses and in the case of merchants and consumers, a place where they trust when they're hungry, bored, want something to done ott weekend with the kids, we are where they go to find the best prices and deals and selection in inventory of the transactable offers. >> in the conference call, i know you left more time for questions which is terrific, i couldn't figure out whether you

were saying look, we're still going to advertise to build brand. but we're not going to spend too much money why doesn't everybody know you already? >> yeah. i mean, we have great brand awareness. that's a big piece of the groupon power of the brand and we're north of 80% people know who we are i think our opportunity there is to move just from people knowing who we are and what we've been to where we're moving and what we are now which is a u tult they can use every day. not something they have to wait for in the inbox to give them a deal they didn't expect in the morning. >> is there any way to make it so when you go to the site you can look around it without having to give your e-mail >> the site is completely open at this point. you don't have to give us your e-mail unless you're going to check out and buy something. at this point, it is a completely open marketplace. you can search and discover. actually now is one of the things that surprises people, more people come to groupon to search and browse and just look for things that they're trying to find than come via e-mail >> wow

that's a big change. at the same time, you do say in the summary of what is next, this isn't a turn around it's a transformation. if this was a turn around, we would limit to costs and voucher business to the point it would become relevant. bull i thought it still felt like a turn around to me after i read all your reports. >> yeah. i think people have a very, you know, very narrow speshgtiperspf a turn around. most is cut costors tweak the product. we have a good business today. we're trying to build an amazing business we have a good product today we're trying to build an amazing product w very to transform how we work, the products we deliver to our customers, really fu fundmentally think about us. we're on our way >> is it possible that local is hard for instance, i know the next door people. they don't seem to be able to

monetize product it's such a -- the fraction in the market is small players. many small players no one seems to investor just come in and tamed local. >> yeah. slowly a huge space. and it's a space that got a late start when if you think about the online and mobile and, you know, mobile revolution that we've gone through over the last 15 or 20 years products started first folks like amazon and late 90s it wasn't really until folks like groupon and yelp came into the mix late in the 2000s where you started to get people to push so for sure local is late. its a challenging space. i would say we're producing billions of dollars of value comingout of local space we've grown our inventory and our relationships with small businesses by 60% over the last three years. we're making head way. and we see that as a massive prize. it's worth fighting for. and we like our position in the market >> okay. should we be looking at for this tran transformation, redemption

numbers? gross profit numbers unit use per customer? i'm trying to get the metrics i need. >> i think one great one to look at is units per customer and gp per customer gross profit per customer. those are the ones we're really looking at gp per customer is the thing we're optimizing day in and day out. making sure we have valuable customers on the platform and connecting with valuable offers. units per customer is the things that unlock us overtime. people use us four, five times a year our opportunity in local is where you shop most of the time is four times a week so that's what we're building towards. and those are the metrics to look at long term. we have a lot of customers buying more frequently in a profitable way >> okay, you brought us continuing education. >> yeah. >> this time amc seems like a big deal. >> yes >> we're excited about amc we said earlier today that we already sell millions of tickets a year to movies and now most of the tickets are

sold to enabled theaters so that means we're missing out on the tens of thousands of screens all around the country to deliver that great experience people come to us and look for every single day anyway. so we're really excited about being able to partner with amc to offer that, offer that ability for people when they want to go see a movie and thinking of groupon. they can just buy the ticket and work with them over time to make sure that we're providing that kind of pricing specialty that we bring to the table in a way that works for them. >> it's not like you're losing money. the cash is building it is a quandary >> yeah. >> you with are so transparent and honest i feel like if thing goes a little bit, you could have a hockey stick. >> i think we're wildly undervalued is my perspective. >> mine too. >> but very have strong free flow that is not reflected. i don't believe in our share price today. and just shows that i think we have a lot of opportunity to grow for folks over time. >> i agree i mean, it's not a lottery ticket, so to speak.

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as the average came back today, there is a group that got slammed. the recessionproof stocks. they've been some of the strongest performers going into the market but thanks to widespread perception the federal reserve will ease up on the rate hikes after the next one and the chinese are willing to play ball with president trump, they were thrown away en masse today they came back during the day. but there wasn't much thought to it that's what happens in a rotation we need to give them a look. manufacture the companies are doing incredibly well and the money will cycle back. xib exhibit a is mcdonald's. they're getting a major boost. there is a lot to like about

mcdonald's, the stock quit firing in october not because business is not good but because jerome powell made remarks about the need to overshoot with the rate hikes to crush inflation and crush the economy. the thing is mcdonald's remodelling plan has nothing what so environmenter to do with the feds it's about the company reinventing itself the stock a buy. if the rotation continues, it will keep getting slammed. it went down $3. this one only gets cheaper there is also johnson & johnson. now this huge health care company has a fabulous pipeline of new drugs i don't think people realize just how powerful j & j's nasal spray will be in fighting depression and suicide real epidemics last week there was an article that talked about the drips as a way to combat heart to beat depression i know you think people use that to get high. psychiatrists have been testing this out for a treatment for ptsd and depression for years. it is supposed to be incredibly

effective. so i believe j & j's drug which is close to approval will be a major success not in the numbers and that's one, just one drug in a very impressive pipeline at one point the stock was down huge it rallied to finish down slightly i think it's an opportunity. coca-cola is pulling back. the ceo is trarnsforming this company with more ability to take market share. i'm surprised that pepsi was down too i do prefer coke over pepsi even it rallied to close down tend of the day. a little better risk reward. fourth, clorox, a stock that rarely sells off except during a rotation the underlying company is inconsistent pick up some clorox here and then wait for it to fall another three to five points before adding to your position. stock doesn't pull back any further and you don't own as much as you'd like, high quality problem. be patient fifth, you i want to buy cvs any

time they're done. i think -- cbs i think they will merge with viacom cbs, they own controlling stake of both. cbs hasn't been forced down much by the rotation. but it makes too much sense not to buy here. as the combination would be power and all media was driven lower today. finally, kimberly clark, down 2% today. i like proctor and gamble but it wasn't down enough dean cli decline that goes into you will after the pla is tick packages p canada mandated cut yakz in oil production russians and saudis are making a deal ahead of the opec meeting the price of crude can rally $2.02. that is crazy. it tells me that energy costs will remain slow i think the stocks may continue to fall here the higher quality with runs worth buying in weakness buy them gradually on the way down j imin california, jim

>> caller: hey, jim. it's james calling from california how are you tonight? >> all right how are you? >> caller: i'm great thank you. i started a position in arrow environment after watching the ceo on your show and i continue to buy it as it went a little lower. but now i found myself down 33%. what do i do buy? sell hold >> to me what is happening is the stock was a victim of what i regard as being a brutal raid, a short selling raid and then the ceo and i think he basically said, look, it as short selling raid i think something just happened. the stock is a huge winner it's up 30% for the year they're really fighting it to keep it down, they being the short sellers. and that happens so people are shorting ref shorting restoration hardware. let's go to sing in indiana. >> caller: hi, jim, i love your show, man. >> thank you >> caller: my question is about

dtx. that is down almost 15% the past couple weeks it's missing guidance. i want to see if i can scoop some up. >> you know, i do think -- there were a bunch of down grades today. it did seem overdone lh is just terrible on friday too. let's not forget these stocks are structurally challenged. i went through the lh, the laboratory numbers from friday, i said listen, i think these are in the penalty box you have to wait until the fourth quarter i don't want you to just go in and buy them the environment changed here and the stocks being thrown out, some of them are actually buys it is deal or in deal and returning to cnbc. tonight i'm talking to howie mandel he's the host. find out what is different this time around. then looking for the g-20 summit key take away. i'm going off the charts to see what the charts can be signaling about a stock you like and then rapid fire and the lightning round. so stay with cramer!

>> tomorrow, kick off the trading day with "squawk on the street." live from post nine at the nyse. >> as soon as there is a commercial, i go to another game 714 to 702 my wife says will you stop it? a bud light will come on and like the bud light ad. >> it all starts at 9:00 a.m. eastern. the meeting of the executive finance committee is now in session. and... adjourned.

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this is not the same old deal or no deal. >> i no he this game better than anybody. >> we have the opportunity for the contestant to negotiate. >> let's do it >> my childhood hero is emmitt smin smith. >> i still have the same amount of hair. >> okay. this is very exciting. you may not have heard, this is a huge week for us at cnbc this wednesday we're bringing back "deal or no deal. the hit game show that debuted a decade ago what it doesn't have is a new host because the hilarious and uplifting, aet least i care more about that in a lot of ways,

howie mandel is it back agz the host and executive producer. so let's have fun tonight with howie mandel "deal or no deal" is back. welcome to "mad money. good to see you, sir >> have a seat >> boo-yah i'm so thrilled to be here >> i watch you >> you're too kind i don't do it out of kindness, i do it because i like the show. i like you i like you i like listening to you. i like watching you. i told before you this we started recording here, i like your energy. you're authentic and passionate and if i wasn't so risk averse, i would listen to you. >> well, look -- >> i do listen to you but i don't invest. >> i have -- it's okay to sacsai patterned things off you. >> people don't know i'm brilliant when it comes to the economy. >> no. over uplift, education and empowerment. whether it be got talent or this what you're doing is you're allowing people to make some money and what i want to know is what do they do with it?

>> this is -- okay so let me tell you about money first of all, on "deal or no deal" which premiers tonight, right, on nbc, a big christmas special. but the truth of the matter is that i think most people -- you're needed. most people don't know what to do with money. when i first got the show in the first it ratime i said i didn't want to be a game show. i'm a comedian comedians don't do game shows. but my wife said you're an idiot. take the deal. and so i listened to my wife who is sitting back there now and she's been singing ever since. but it blew up it was exciting. and i thought okay, if i do this, then this is going to be a great platform for me to be funny and to show my wears and i'll never foregeget. i walked out on to the stage and i saw my first contest anant. i said what is your name and she says it is karen van she shows me she has three children she's never had health insurance and never owned a home, a

million dollars much bless than million dollars would change her life we know we're people first i'm a father and i'm a husband. and i got so afraid because unlike you and me who have done television before, when you put a contestant on a set, there is all these lights there is all the cameras and she was glazed i thought if i start doing things, she's going to make decisions. important life changing decisions. deal or no deal. you have to know it. so i even changed my cadence i talked to my children when they were 5. i went, you know, the first offer is $40,000 she goes, no deal without even thinking right. i go, no you did nothing. you don't need skill here. you have no physical -- yeah it means -- and i'm thinking, you don't understand when i say the offer is $40,000, that's real. that is real money what you don't -- what people do is they see that million dollars still floating out there and they go that's a chance. >> yes because that's in your mind. i want the mill.

>> but here's a woman if she had $40,000, she wasn't from new york or l.a., if she had $40,000, she could put a down payment on a house that is more than the average american family makes a year of she could do so much with it. and she kement saying september deal she walked away with $5,000. so in my mind, it tears me up, i think oh, my god, $5,000 you know what? where do you win $5,000? you could invest that and listen to jim and make money. we did a follow up she came back two years later. you know what she had done >> no. >> her breasts talk about an investment it's in her vest that's an investment >> her breasts, like -- >> you have to explain what that is >> no, it just took me by surprise >> she had enhancement she made -- >> no thank you. no deal. >> that's what i said. >> i like merck, no deal how about what changed this

year >> okay. so as you saw in that little clip that you showed, we have taken everything everybody loves about the original game and amped it up. the way we amped it is, number one, the contestant has one opportunity to do a counter offer. they have to negotiate >> very cool >> it is but they have to be smart. our banker who is also new is a woman and is very shrewed and, like you, you know, goes by the numbers and odds you have to figure out >> 3.7 for a mill. something like that. it's like a royal flush. >> right >> it's hard to -- you can't just presume you're going to get the mil. that's what people seem to think. >> not only that, you can't make a willy-nilly -- if you get an offer for $200,000, she worked out, there is an algorithm, what are the odds versus what is the value of what could possibly be in your case so she offers you a quarter of a million dollars. if she offers you a quarter million dollars, you can counter.

what are the odds -- it has to be smart the way you counter on property and the way you -- but you can't just say, you know what for a million i'll go now. it will be no deal. >> more excitement one last thing >> last thing? i'm on my way out already? >> i don't know. i'm looking at my producer >> i want to hear some sound effects. >> wait a minute >> i want to touch something i want to run around and bang. this is so weird >> i'm busting for you i'm not kidding. i'm busting it right now >> bust it >> okay. >> we should be moving around, not sitting. that's what i love about this show >> no, don't look at the clip yet. they're telling me to look at a clip there is an interview with a woman that won $1 million. and there is this great moment this is what i found i didn't have any money. when i got some money, everyone said you changed no, they changed they wanted some of my money the other thing is i didn't realize about the taxes. she realized about the taxes that's an incredibly powerful interview. >> it is because people, you know what is weird? it's really weird to me. i don't have -- you talk about education.

i don't have an education. i don't have a ged most people in this world that are are successful don't even understand economy they say if i want to invest, what can i afford? they call the accountant, how much of a house can i buy? how can you not figure out fourth grade math? it is just fourth grade math they didn't know about taxes >> you talk about it they planned they planned stop planning. take action. >> just do >> right >> but your dollar, every dollar you make, that's what this is about, that's what the market is about, think of it as an employee so if you make a dollar, i was in comedy. there is no money in comedy when i started out. or it's no the steady money. so i just figured if i had a little bit of money, my wife used to get mad at me. i would make my first $5,000 and i bought a deposit for five years. >> but that's all right. you're cautious. i want you to press some buttons. >> i would love to >> while you tell me you're going to run a clip here i want advice for what this

woman should do. just kidding >> all right >> here we go. >> oh, my gosh >> then you can press stuff. >> okay. >> deal or no deal >> oh, my god. >> what would i do i would -- i would -- go for it. i would take it. i would go for it. it's guaranteed. >> because bulls make money. bears make money slaughter! hogs get slaughtered you don't want to be a hog >> that means nothing we're off to the races >> press more buttons. >> whoa! >> deal, deal, deal, deal. >> i didn't even see you do that >> i did that for you.

>> i love that >> deal, deal, deal, i pressed the wrong button your executive producer is -- >> it says deal. this was on it >> and another -- they're telling me -- no deal, no deal, no deal. they're telling me i have to wrap it up >> i'm not leaving >> we broke every single rule of the show that happens ♪ hallelujah >> you're changing our network you're a great man howie mandel, host of "deal or no deal. starts tonight i look forward to working with you all the time you are who i want to be i have to shave a little more. "mad money" is back after the break.

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it is time lightning round! >> buy, buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell, sell are you ready? elizabeth in new york. >> caller: hi there, jim we watch your show from the very beginning. so tonight i'd like to ask you about hsc. i bought some at $21 and more at $16.50 >> i want you to hold on to it the stock is up very big thank you for the kind comments. here is my take, can't go wrong with those nancy in illinois. nancy? >> caller: hi, jim thank you for taking my call happy holidays >> same. >> caller: you're welcome. we are wondering if the tariffs are holding steel stocks back. >> i think it's the best american steel company in the world. i think it's got a nice yield. i think the generating huge amount of cash flow and hold on to the new core. brian in texas

brian? >> caller: hi, jim how are you? >> i'm good. how about you? >> caller: good. long time caller i love your staff and what about those cowboys? >> can we take the next call we got -- who we got ken? all right. go ahead, brian. >> caller: okay. well, jim, you need a crystal ball for my question what is going to happen with the utilities a year out and is there any reason i shouldn't be in exxon? >> exxon and chicago and philly, i have to tell you, i think the utility stocks short term are way too high but i do think it's such a fine company, you have to be willing to buy more if it comes down that's my take on. that and go eagles let's go to ken in california. >> boo-yah, cramer i'm talking about horton works hdp before the merger. >> i like the merger i think it's really important to check on them.

buy, buy, buy. neil in new york >> caller: a big boo-yah to you. thank you for your continuing effort to educate your listeners. do you believe whr company formerly snoen westrock is a good long term buy. >> no. just okay. this one has been a decliner and i'm not happy with it. it has a 4% yield. you need to sell it. i can't recommend it let's go to amy in nevada. amy? >> caller: hi, mr. cramer. how are you? i'm good how about you? >> caller: i'm great i'm a six time caller. yes. i call for your advice my stock today that i'm interested in is munamedics. >> imaging very good business i like aluminum more when it comes to that i think it's a little high dollar price it is a better company

let's go to chris in south carolina chris? >> caller: hi, jim big fan of yours we appreciate you every day, buddy. >> thank you >> greatest all time >> the goat. >> caller: okta. it's had a great run earnings are coming out wednesday night. what shouwe do? >> that's a high risk thing. that is in that whole group of stocks that i really like in enterprise software that i think is terrific which i think cooper is good. i will say don't put a gun to your head and wait until after the reports. you may have to miss some upside buy a little ahead and then a little after don't do all at once let's go to jack in ohio gentleman being? >> caller: thanks for taking my call, jim. >> of course >> caller: i'm looking to add to my dividend income that has a payout in january. natural fuel gas company nfg >> always like the company always a bridesmaid. i think it was going to get a takeover that never happened.

i think you'll do fine with nfg. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the lightning round >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪

the stock market exploded high they are morning. we got very positive developments out of the g-20 meeting. however, the incredibly bullish

opening didn't hold. initially you had out of position traders scrambling to bet on all the companies to do better then it took a turn for the worse. the bulls failed at the open while this was ultimately a nice day, it wasn't as nice as many of you might have expected at least in the morning. the headlines may say that the china situation is diffused. what if the action in the stock market is telling you another story. tonight we're going off the charts, especially edition with help of tim collins. he is my colleague at realmoney.com to get a better sense of what is going on here as far as collins is concerned, today's action is discouraging you need to be cautious when buying stocks here the trade truce failed to clean the dirty waters gave us goggles and a snorkle to make life a little easier. that said, if you want to understand what is going on with the chinese and with the u.s. economy, there is one stock that he says you can tell a great deal from caterpillar. talked about that at the top of the show this is a cyclical smokestack company that thrives in a strong

economy. and it also gets a large chunk of the growth from the people's republic of china. which is why cat stock is a good proxy for the progress or lack thereof in the trade war what does he see in cat? as long as the stock market doesn't completely give up the month, he believes cat pill area can have a remarkable snap back rally. he acknowledge this is is a risky bet. let's break it down starting with caterpillar's long term weekly chart rather than getting caught up in the action, collins wants to focus on a single indicator he argues has done a real good job of predicting bottoms in the stock. he is talking about the indicator of an indicator. we talked about the accumulation distribution line before a tool that tells you whether big institutions are buying or selling. we talked about the moving average conversions or the mac-d which is the case of the moment. certainly what it does is it gives you awe sense of of what is going to happen ahead of

time it is created by a friend of the show does something interesting. it takes the moving average of a stock's accumulation and distribution line. if theaccumulation and distribution lines helps us figure out if the noters are buying or selling. it tells us about the momentum of buying or selling it's a derivative. they detect shifts in behavior of the big boys and set stock prices with the gigantic trades. i think it's a precursor that is the cool he wants us to use to analyze caterpillar when you look back over the last three years, it's been very effective predicting tops and bottoms of the stock look at how low this thing plunged during the market wide meltdown you see this you have to go back to 2015 to find another reading this low. back then caterpillar stock plunged going into 2016. ublg see, boom there is a big decline the key indicator made a higher low. there you go that's what collins wants you to focus on the uptick in the oscillator

foreshadowed a rebound in the stock. sure enough, cat gave you a rally over the next two years. you can see this didn't go down as much. this was there boom that is what we want now collins seems to think that we are literally -- huh -- all right. we'll just leave that there. collins seems to think that we're seeing something similar in terms of bullish potential with the oscillator bouncing hard off the lows. however this time we don't have the bullish conversions. cat stock is bouncing along with it collins points out that every time the oscillator is falling in the lows of the magnitude there, focus there cat is giving you ater i if -- terrific rally we saw it 2010, 2011, 2015 collins is betting we'll see it again over the next 12 months. how about caterpillar's short term daily chart let's go to that one despite today's fade at the open, collins likes what he sees

in this picture. the first thing that stands out to him is this w okay that is a w shaped pattern higher low and higher high we love that textbook bottom formation. as low as it can hold above $134, collins believes the stock can make major move higher he wouldn't be surprised if they can climb back to $150 over the next six to eight weeks. we'll take that move, right? the high from earlier today, $142 is the new ceiling of resistance now the 50 day moving average much $134 is our floor of support if it goes below that level this is important, collins would be a seller it means the trade failed. what else? look at the full oscillator. right down here. down at the bottom this is a momentum indicator that helps measure when a stock got overbought or oversold it got very oversold late in november all right? and the stock came roaring back. just as you'd expect when something goes down too far too

fast it made a buggish crossover. the black line goes above the red one. this has been a very positive sign for caterpillar you have that and you have that. wow. we have seen it three times since the summer each time the stock rallies. cat already rallied $10. so we're mindful put it all together and collins likes what he sees in caterpillar stock. this is a high risk, high reward story. here's the bottom line the chart is interpreted by tim collins suggesting that cat should be ready to roar even more here and that makes sense to me if the fed can engineer a soft landing for the economy and the president's new understanding with china turns into a genuine and to the trade war. but you need to have a lot of conviction to bet on caterpillar. i don't blame anyone feeling weezy. as i said earlier, i think the chinese can solve a lot of problems with president trump by simply buying a ton of machinery from this great american manufacturer stick with crame

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with your choice of the best in tv, movies, or music. it's the perfect holiday upgrade. i know what i'm asking santa for this year. you still write letters to santa? no. please. i send him emails. can i get his email address? oh... i don't feel comfortable sharing it. get the iphone 10 s and our unlimited plan with your choice of the best in tv, movies, or music. more for your thing. that's our thing. i had an interview with gary friedman, the ceo of rh. and he said to bite stock. he said he was buying the stock. thought it was too cheap guess what after the close the company reported a dramatic upside it is screaming higher you made a lot of money. there is always a bull market somewhere. i'm jim cramer and i'll see you tomorrow

ffarone: it was like "ocean's eleven," just without brad pitt, george clooney, and matt damon. narrator: a brazen band of burglars with an arsenal to match. whelan: they used crowbars. they used hydraulic lifts, acetylene torches. i turn this on right now, your cellphones aren't gonna work. narrator: and the loot is piling up. everything was gone. everything was gone. narrator: $150,000 here, $1.9 million there. whelan: they took 45,000 pairs of high-end sunglasses valued at in excess of $3 million. narrator: and even the most seasoned detectives